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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Datasets for characterizing extreme events relevant to hydrologic design over the conterminous United States

Despite the close linkage between extreme floods and snowmelt, particularly through rain-on-snow (ROS), hydrologic infrastructure is mostly designed based on standard precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (PREC-IDF) that neglect snow processes in runoff generation. For snow-dominated regions, such simplification could result in substantial errors in estimating extreme events and infrastructure design risk. To address this long-standing problem, we applied the Next Generation IDF (NG-IDF) technique to estimate design basis extreme events for different durations and return periods in the conterminous United States (CONUS) to distinctly represent the contribution of rain, snowmelt, and ROS events to the amount of water reaching the land surface. A suite of datasets were developed to characterize the magnitude, trend, seasonality, and dominant mechanism of extreme events for over 200,000 locations. Infrastructure design risk associated with the use of PREC-IDF was estimated. Accuracy of the model simulations used in the analyses was confirmed by long-term snow data at over 200 Snowpack Telemetry stations. The presented spatially continuous datasets are readily usable and instrumental for supporting site-specific infrastructure design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neutron Next-Event Estimators Kinematics (Rev.2)

This paper reviews the kinematics of neutron elastic and inelastic scattering with moving and stationary targets for contributions to Neutron Next-Event Estimators (NEEs). NEEs are often used for simulating the response of detectors in locations that have few random walk particles. Contributions to NEEs from collisions differ from sampling the outgoing particle state in standard random walk collisions as the location of the estimator is fixed, thus fixing the scattering angle between the incoming and outgoing directions. To calculate contributions to NEEs, the outgoing energies and probabilities of scatter toward the estimator must be calculated. This paper presents the most general case that encompasses elastic and inelastic scattering with both moving and stationary targets. The moving target case is required for elastic scattering with thermal motion due to the free gas thermal treatment approximation. The stationary target equations are presented for comparison with equations presented in canonical Monte Carlo texts.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian inference for the seismic moment tensor using regional waveforms and a data-derived distribution of velocity models

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used to construct the transfer function employed in the forward model that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedures often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. We attempt to incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a distribution of velocity models calculated in a prior effort based on different and complementary data sets. The posterior distribution of velocity models is then used to construct Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional waveform data. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and can be interpreted in terms of most-probable source-type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bolide Infrasound Signal Morphology and Yield Estimates: A Case Study of Two Events Detected by a Dense Acoustic Sensor Network

Two bolides (2016 June 2 and 2019 April 4) were detected at multiple regional infrasound stations, with many of the locations receiving multiple detections. Analysis of the received signals was used to estimate the yield, location, and trajectory, as well as the type of shock that produced the received signal. The results from the infrasound analysis were compared with ground-truth information that was collected through other sensing modalities. This multimodal framework offers an expanded perspective on the processes governing bolide shock generation and propagation. The majority of signal features showed reasonable agreement between the infrasound-based interpretation and the other observational modalities, though the yield estimate from the 2019 bolide was significantly lower using the infrasound detections. There was also evidence suggesting that one of the detections was from a cylindrical shock that was initially propagating upward, which is unusual though not impossible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimization-Based Data-Driven Approach for Detecting Fault Location in Power Systems

In grids with large penetration of converterinterfaced resources (CIRs), measurements of voltage, current, and line parameters can fluctuate significantly during fault conditions. These fluctuations, combined with complex network topologies and extensive system branching, make accurate fault location challenging. Faults, such as short circuits, can cause prolonged outages with serious socio-economic impacts, highlighting the need for rapid fault identification to minimize downtime. However, current fault detection methods—such as relays and digital fault recorders—often relay information too slowly, impeding swift corrective action. Given the limited availability of high-resolution phasor measurement units, this paper introduces an optimization-based observer to estimate fault locations, grid line parameters, and voltages using local CIR measurements. To preserve the confidentiality of CIRs and enhance estimation accuracy, this study uses a black-box model of CIRs. This bottom-up, event-driven approach can enhances protection and control systems through optimized and real-time fault detection. Simulation results show that the optimization-based data-driven observer can accurately detect fault locations and estimate grid states and parameters, providing valuable insights for utilities and operators in grid applications.

Subedi, Sunil [ORNL] (ORCID:000000034069090X)↗

NASA NTRS2008

Classification of Small Negative Lightning Reports at the KSC-ER

The NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Air Force Eastern Range (ER) operate an extensive suite of lightning sensors because Florida experiences the highest area density of ground strikes in the United States, with area densities approaching 16 fl/sq km/yr when accumulated in 10x10 km (100 sq km) grids. The KSC-ER use data derived from two cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning detection networks, the "Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System" (CGLSS) and the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (TradeMark) (NLDN) plus a 3-dimensional lightning mapping system, the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system, to provide warnings for ground operations and to insure mission safety during space launches. For operational applications at the KSC-ER it is important to understand the performance of each lightning detection system in considerable detail. In this work we examine a specific subset of the CGLSS stroke reports that have low values of the negative inferred peak current, Ip, i.e. values between 0 and -7 kA, and were thought to produce a new ground contact (NGC). When possible, the NLDN and LDAR systems were used to validate the CGLSS classification and to determine how many of these reported strokes were first strokes, subsequent strokes in a pre-existing channel (PEC), or cloud pulses that the CGLSS misclassified as CG strokes. It is scientifically important to determine the smallest current that can reach the ground either in the form of a first stroke or by way of a subsequent stroke that creates a new ground contact. In Biagi et al (2007), 52 low amplitude, negative return strokes ([Ip] < or = 10 kA) were evaluated in southern Arizona, northern Texas, and southern Oklahoma. The authors found that 50-87% of the small NLDN reports could be classified as CG (either first or subsequent strokes) on the basis of video and waveform recordings. Low amplitude return strokes are interesting because they are usually difficult to detect, and they are thought to bypass conventional lightning protection that relies on a sufficient attractive radius to prevent "shielding failure" (Golde, 1977). They also have larger location errors compared to the larger current events. In this study, we use the estimated peak current provided by the CGLSS and the results of our classification to determine the minimum Ip for each category of CG stroke and its probability of occurrence. Where possible, these results are compared to the findings in the literature.

Ward, Jennifer G.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Structure and Evolution of LOCBURST: The BATSE Burst Location Algorithm

The gamma-ray burst (GRB) location algorithm used to produce the BATSE GRB locations is described. The general flow of control of the current location algorithm is presented, and the significant properties of the various physical inputs required are identified. The development of the burst location algorithm during the releases of the BATSE IB, 2B, and 3B GRB catalogs is presented so that the reasons for the differences in the positions and error estimates between the catalogs can be understood. In particular, differences between the 2B and 3B locations are discussed for events that have moved significantly and the reasons for the changes explained. The locations of bursts located independently by the interplanetary network (IPN) are used to illustrate the effect on burst location accuracy of various components of the algorithm. IPN data and locations from other gamma-ray instruments are used to calculate estimates of the systematic errors on BATSE burst locations.

Pendleton, Geoffrey N.↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Structure of Evolution LOCBURST: The BATSE Burst Location Algorithm

The gamma-ray bursts (GRB) location algorithm used to produce the BATSE GRB locations is described. The general flow of control of the current location algorithm is presented and the significant properties of the various physical inputs required are identified. The development of the burst location algorithm during the releases of the BATSE 1B, 2B, and 3B gamma-ray burst catalogs is presented so that the reasons for the differences in the positions and error estimates between the catalogs can be understood. In particular, differences between the 2B and 3B locations are discussed for events that have moved significantly and the reasons for the changes explained. The locations of bursts located independently by the interplanetary network are used to illustrate the effect on burst location accuracy of various components of the algorithm. IPN data as well as locations from other gamma-ray instruments are used to calculate estimates of the systematic errors on BATSE burst locations.

Pendleton, Geoffrey N.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Initial Demonstration of the Real-Time Safety Monitoring Framework for the National Airspace System Using Flight Data

As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have an automated framework to provide an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecast, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. Towards this end, as part of our earlier work, we formulated the Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) framework for monitoring and predicting the state of safety and to predict unsafe events. In our previous work, the RTSM framework was demonstrated in simulation on three different constructed scenarios. In this paper, we further develop the framework and demonstrate it on real flight data from multiple data sources. Specifically, the flight data is obtained through the Shadow Mode Assessment using Realistic Technologies for the National Airspace System (SMART-NAS) Testbed that serves as a central point of collection, integration, and access of information from these different data sources. By testing and evaluating using real-world scenarios, we may accelerate the acceptance of the RTSM framework towards deployment. In this paper we demonstrate the framework's capability to not only estimate the state of safety in the NAS, but predict the time and location of unsafe events such as a loss of separation between two aircraft, or an aircraft encountering convective weather. The experimental results highlight the capability of the approach, and the kind of information that can be provided to operators to improve their situational awareness in the context of safety.

Real-time Safety Monitoring↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Optimal Sensor Augmentation Via Estimated Mutual Information

We consider the problem of designing a sensor network to most efficiently locate the source of a seismic event. The left panel of Figure 1 shows 982 possible sensor locations in a region of interest. The objective is to infer the unknown location of an earthquake, indicated by the gold dot for illustration purposes. Assume that three sensors have already been placed for data collection. Travel times of the P-wave from the source to the three sensors are observed and used to infer the unknown source location via a Bayesian statistical model described subsequently. The right panel of Figure 1 shows samples from the resulting posterior distribution for source location along with a posterior estimate of this location.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of common trap types for capturing wild pigs

Abstract Wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) are one of the most ecologically harmful invasive vertebrates globally. Due to their negative impacts, wild pig populations are managed via trapping, yet studies investigating various trap designs have been limited in duration, location, and number of trappers. Using data from professional trappers across the southeastern U.S., we evaluated the performance of 3 wild pig trap types (corral, drop, passive net), and the effect of forage season (barren, green‐up, masting) on trapping success. Specifically, we compared trap effectiveness (estimated proportion of targeted wild pigs caught per capture event), trap night effort (number of days to first catch), and the amount of bait and time used per individual take over the lifetime of each trap location across the 3 trap types and forage seasons. Across >850 capture events by 31 trappers, all 3 trap types evaluated were effective at capturing entire social groups of wild pigs. Few differences were observed among trap types, although drop traps in masting season captured a greater estimated proportion of wild pigs per capture event compared to other trap type‐season combinations. Our data also revealed that passive net traps required slightly more bait/wild pig captured than drop traps but there was no difference in the time/wild pig captured among traps. Our findings demonstrate that when operated by wildlife professionals, multiple designs of wild pig traps can be effective at removing targeted groups of wild pigs. Further, our results offer insights regarding the performance of wild pig trap types across seasons that can be used to inform wild pig trapping programs.

Taylor, Charles R. [Warnell School of Forestry and↗

NASA NTRS2004

Reduced-Order Modeling and Wavelet Analysis of Turbofan Engine Structural Response Due to Foreign Object Damage (FOD) Events

The development of a wavelet-based feature extraction technique specifically targeting FOD-event induced vibration signal changes in gas turbine engines is described. The technique performs wavelet analysis of accelerometer signals from specified locations on the engine and is shown to be robust in the presence of significant process and sensor noise. It is envisioned that the technique will be combined with Kalman filter thermal/health parameter estimation for FOD-event detection via information fusion from these (and perhaps other) sources. Due to the lack of high-frequency FOD-event test data in the open literature, a reduced-order turbofan structural model (ROM) was synthesized from a finite element model modal analysis to support the investigation. In addition to providing test data for algorithm development, the ROM is used to determine the optimal sensor location for FOD-event detection. In the presence of significant noise, precise location of the FOD event in time was obtained using the developed wavelet-based feature.

Turso, James↗

NASA NTRS2007

Reduced-Order Modeling and Wavelet Analysis of Turbofan Engine Structural Response Due to Foreign Object Damage "FOD" Events

The development of a wavelet-based feature extraction technique specifically targeting FOD-event induced vibration signal changes in gas turbine engines is described. The technique performs wavelet analysis of accelerometer signals from specified locations on the engine and is shown to be robust in the presence of significant process and sensor noise. It is envisioned that the technique will be combined with Kalman filter thermal/ health parameter estimation for FOD-event detection via information fusion from these (and perhaps other) sources. Due to the lack of high-frequency FOD-event test data in the open literature, a reduced-order turbofan structural model (ROM) was synthesized from a finite-element model modal analysis to support the investigation. In addition to providing test data for algorithm development, the ROM is used to determine the optimal sensor location for FOD-event detection. In the presence of significant noise, precise location of the FOD event in time was obtained using the developed wavelet-based feature.

Turso, James A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Locations of termination shock and heliopause based on Voyager plasma and magnetic field data

The locations of the termination shock and the heliopause are studied taking into account the effects of pickup protons. The study uses available plasma and magnetic field data from Voyagers over a 14-year period (1978-1991) and Voyager observation of the 1992-93 radio emission event. Outside 30 AU, pickup protons have a significant influence on dynamical structures of the outer heliosphere. The solar wind is treated as a mixture of electrons, solar wind protons, and interstellar pickup protons. If the magnitude of the interstellar magnetic field B(sub int) is given, one can quantitatively study the motion and location of the termination shock. The location is anti-correlated with the sun spot number and the shock has an average speed of approx. 24 km/s. Because B(sub int) is poorly known, additional information is needed in studying the termination shock. Cummings, et al. have used observations of anomalous cosmic rays to estimate the location of the shock. The observations of the 1991 GMIR and GMIR shock and the 1992-93 radio emission event provide another handle for the study of the termination shock and the heliopause. After its penetration through the termination shock, the GMIR shock continued to propagate in the subsonic region of the solar wind and eventually interacted with the heliopause. This interaction produces a transmitted shock propagating outward in the interstellar medium and a reflected shock propagating inward toward the sun in the subsonic solar wind. The plasma frequencies behind the reflected and the transmitted shock can be, respectively, responsible for the 2- and 3-kHz radio emissions. Taking into account the effects of pickup protons we found that the average locations of the termination shock and the heliopause in 1991-92 are at approximately 66 AU and 150 AU, respectively.

Whang, Y. C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Detection of Storm Damage Tracks with EOS Data

The damage surveys conducted by the NWS in the aftermath of a reported tornadic event are used to document the location of the tornado ground damage track (pathlength and width) and an estimation of the tornado intensity. This study explores the possibility of using near-real-time medium and high spatial resolution satellite imagery from the NASA Earth Observing System satellites to provide additional information for the surveys. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data were used to study the damage tracks from three tornadic storms: the La Plata, Maryland, storm of 28 April 2002 and the Ellsinore and Marquand, Missouri, storms of 24 April 2002. These storms varied in intensity and occurred over regions with significantly different land cover. It was found that, depending on the nature of the land cover, tornado damage tracks from intense storms (F1 or greater) and hail storms may be evident in ASTER, Landsat, and MODIS satellite imagery. In areas where the land cover is dominated by forests, the scar patterns can show up very clearly, while in areas of grassland and regions with few trees, scar patterns are not as obvious or cannot be seen at all in the satellite imagery. The detection of previously unidentified segments of a damage track caused by the 24 April 2002 Marquand, Missouri, tornado demonstrates the utility of satellite imagery for damage surveys. However, the capability to detect tornado tracks in satellite imagery depends on the ability to observe the ground without obstruction from space and appears to be as much dependent on the nature of the underlying surface and land cover as on the severity of the tornadic storm.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Machine Learning Workflow to Classify Mobile Home Parks at Scale

Understanding the built environment is essential to the overall study of population dynamics, grid infrastructure, emergency response, among others. In the United States there are multiple classifications for buildings within the built environment such as residential, signifying family homes while commercial buildings consist of apartments or larger structures which are multi-purpose. While there is a high level of understanding of where these aforementioned structures are located, there is a third class of structures, mobile home parks (MHP) which have been under-represented in the literature despite there being an estimated 2.7 million of them within the United States. Research has shown that individuals who reside in MHP are at higher risk to extreme events due to their location and structural integrity of residence. Attention must now turn to identifying MHP at scale to help first responders and policy makers understand where these at risk populations reside. To address for this gap, we develop a novel methodology to infer MHP at scale based off morphologies derived at a building level. Here, we show that across 3 million buildings in 6 states within the United States it is possible to identify MHP with 83% accuracy. This novel approach to identify MHP from other structures within the built environment using a machine learning approach provides a new tool to leverage in relation to helping at-risk populations.

Stipek, Clinton [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

NASA NTRS2005

Detection Of Tornado Damage Tracks With EOS Data

The damage surveys conducted by the NWS in the aftermath of a reported tornadic event are used to document the location of the tornado ground damage track (path length and width) and an estimation of the tornado intensity. This study explored the possibility of using near real-time medium and high-resolution satellite imagery from the NASA EOS satellites to provide additional information for the surveys. MODIS and ASTER data were used to study the damage tracks from three tornadic storms; the La Plata, Maryland storm of 28 April 2002 and the Carter-Butler Counties and Madison County Missouri storms of 24 April 2002. These storms varied in intensity (from F0-F4) and occurred over regions with different land use. It was found that, depending on the nature of land use, tornado damage tracks from intense storms (F2 or greater) may be evident in both ASTER and MODIS satellite imagery. In areas of dense vegetation the scar patterns show up very clearly, while in areas of grassland and regions with few trees, scar patterns are not at all obvious in the satellite imagery. The detection of previously unidentified segments of a damage track caused by the 24 April 2004 Madison County, Missouri tornado demonstrates the utility of satellite imagery for damage surveys. However, the capability to detect tornado tracks in satellite imagery appears to be as much dependent on the nature of the underlying surface and land use as on the severity of the tornadic storm. The imaging sensors on the NPOESS operational satellites to be launched in 2006 will continue the unique observing capabilities of the EOS instruments.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

NASA NTRS2024

A Rapid Sequence of Solar Energetic Particle Events Associated with a Series of Extreme-ultraviolet Jets: Solar Orbiter, STEREO-A, and Near-Earth Spacecraft Observations

A series of solar energetic electron (SEE) events was observed from 2022 November 9 to November 15 by Solar Orbiter, STEREO-A, and near-Earth spacecraft. At least 32 SEE intensity enhancements at energies >10 keV were clearly distinguishable in Solar Orbiter particle data, with 13 of them occurring on November 11. Several of these events were accompanied by 10 MeV proton and 2MeV nucleon−1 heavy-ion intensity enhancements. By combining remote-sensing and in situ data from the three viewpoints (Solar Orbiter and STEREO-A were ∼20° and ∼15° east of Earth, respectively), we determine that the origin of this rapid succession of events was a series of brightenings and jetlike eruptions detected in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations from the vicinity of two active regions. We find a close association between these EUV phenomena, the occurrence of hard X-ray flares, type III radio bursts, and the release of SEEs. For the most intense events, usually associated with extended EUV jets, the distance between the site of these solar eruptions and the estimated magnetic connectivity regions of each spacecraft with the Sun did not prevent the arrival of electrons at the three locations. The capability of jets to drive coronal fronts does not necessarily imply the observation of an SEE event. Two peculiar SEE events on November 9 and 14, observed only at electron energies 50 keV but rich in 1MeV nucleon−1 heavy ions, originated from slow-rising confined EUV emissions, for which the process resulting in energetic particle release to interplanetary space is unclear.

D Lario↗