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At least 55 records · Page 3

Fibonacci Grids

Recent years have seen a resurgence of interest in a variety of non-standard computational grids for global numerical prediction. The motivation has been to reduce problems associated with the converging meridians and the polar singularities of conventional regular latitude-longitude grids. A further impetus has come from the adoption of massively parallel computers, for which it is necessary to distribute work equitably across the processors; this is more practicable for some non-standard grids. Desirable attributes of a grid for high-order spatial finite differencing are: (i) geometrical regularity; (ii) a homogeneous and approximately isotropic spatial resolution; (iii) a low proportion of the grid points where the numerical procedures require special customization (such as near coordinate singularities or grid edges). One family of grid arrangements which, to our knowledge, has never before been applied to numerical weather prediction, but which appears to offer several technical advantages, are what we shall refer to as "Fibonacci grids". They can be thought of as mathematically ideal generalizations of the patterns occurring naturally in the spiral arrangements of seeds and fruit found in sunflower heads and pineapples (to give two of the many botanical examples). These grids possess virtually uniform and highly isotropic resolution, with an equal area for each grid point. There are only two compact singular regions on a sphere that require customized numerics. We demonstrate the practicality of these grids in shallow water simulations, and discuss the prospects for efficiently using these frameworks in three-dimensional semi-implicit and semi-Lagrangian weather prediction or climate models.

Swinbank, Richard

The Impact of the Assimilation of AIRS Radiance Measurements on Short-term Weather Forecasts

Advanced spaceborne instruments have the ability to improve the horizontal and vertical characterization of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere through the explicit use of hyperspectral thermal infrared radiance measurements. The incorporation of these measurements into a data assimilation system provides a means to continuously characterize a three-dimensional, instantaneous atmospheric state necessary for the time integration of numerical weather forecasts. Measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are incorporated into the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation system to provide improved initial conditions for use in a mesoscale modeling framework mimicking that of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The methodologies for the incorporation of the measurements into the system are presented. Though the measurements have been shown to have a positive impact in global modeling systems, the measurements are further constrained in this system as the model top is physically lower than the global systems and there is no ozone characterization in the background state. For a study period, the measurements are shown to have positive impact on both the analysis state as well as subsequently spawned short-term (0-48 hr) forecasts, particularly in forecasted geopotential height and precipitation fields. At 48 hr, height anomaly correlations showed an improvement in forecast skill of 2.3 hours relative to a system without the AIRS measurements. Similarly, the equitable threat and bias scores of precipitation forecasts of 25 mm (6 hr)-1 were shown to be improved by 8% and 7%, respectively.

McCarty, Will

Conflict-Aware Scheduling Algorithm

conflict-aware scheduling algorithm is being developed to help automate the allocation of NASA s Deep Space Network (DSN) antennas and equipment that are used to communicate with interplanetary scientific spacecraft. The current approach for scheduling DSN ground resources seeks to provide an equitable distribution of tracking services among the multiple scientific missions and is very labor intensive. Due to the large (and increasing) number of mission requests for DSN services, combined with technical and geometric constraints, the DSN is highly oversubscribed. To help automate the process, and reduce the DSN and spaceflight project labor effort required for initiating, maintaining, and negotiating schedules, a new scheduling algorithm is being developed. The scheduling algorithm generates a "conflict-aware" schedule, where all requests are scheduled based on a dynamic priority scheme. The conflict-aware scheduling algorithm allocates all requests for DSN tracking services while identifying and maintaining the conflicts to facilitate collaboration and negotiation between spaceflight missions. These contrast with traditional "conflict-free" scheduling algorithms that assign tracks that are not in conflict and mark the remainder as unscheduled. In the case where full schedule automation is desired (based on mission/event priorities, fairness, allocation rules, geometric constraints, and ground system capabilities/ constraints), a conflict-free schedule can easily be created from the conflict-aware schedule by removing lower priority items that are in conflict.

Wang, Yeou-Fang

A Human-in-the Loop Exploration of the Dynamic Airspace Configuration Concept

An exploratory human-in-the-loop study was conducted to better understand the impact of Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) on air traffic controllers. To do so, a range of three progressively more aggressive algorithmic approaches to sectorizations were chosen. Sectorizations from these algorithms were used to test and quantify the range of impact on the controller and traffic. Results show that traffic count was more equitably distributed between the four test sectors and duration of counts over MAP were progressively lower as the magnitude of boundary change increased. However, taskload and workload were also shown to increase with the increase in aggressiveness and acceptability of the boundary changes decreased. Overall, simulated operations of the DAC concept did not appear to compromise safety. Feedback from the participants highlighted the importance of limiting some aspects of boundary changes such as amount of volume gained or lost and the extent of change relative to the initial airspace design.

Homola, Jeffrey

Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the number of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.

Grabbe, Shon R.

Application of a Modified Universal Design Survey for Evaluation of Ares 1 Ground Crew Worksites

Operability is a driving requirement for NASA's Ares 1 launch vehicle. Launch site ground operations include several operator tasks to prepare the vehicle for launch or to perform maintenance. Ensuring that components requiring operator interaction at the launch site are designed for optimal human use is a high priority for operability. To support design evaluation, the Ares 1 Upper Stage (US) element Human Factors Engineering (HFE) group developed a survey based on the Universal Design approach. Universal Design is a process to create products that can be used effectively by as many people as possible. Universal Design per se is not a priority for Ares 1 because launch vehicle processing is a specialized skill and not akin to a consumer product that should be used by all people of all abilities. However, applying principles of Universal Design will increase the probability of an error free and efficient design which is a priority for Ares 1. The Design Quality Evaluation Survey centers on the following seven principles: (1) Equitable use, (2) Flexibility in use, (3) Simple and intuitive use, (4) Perceptible information, (5) Tolerance for error, (6) Low physical effort, (7) Size and space for approach and use. Each principle is associated with multiple evaluation criteria which were rated with the degree to which the statement is true. All statements are phrased in the utmost positive, or the design goal so that the degree to which judgments tend toward "completely agree" directly reflects the degree to which the design is good. The Design Quality Evaluation Survey was employed for several US analyses. The tool was found to be most useful for comparative judgments as opposed to an assessment of a single design option. It provided a useful piece of additional data when assessing possible operator interfaces or worksites for operability

Blume, Jennifer L.

Dynamically Evolving Sectors for Convective Weather Impact

A new strategy for altering existing sector boundaries in response to blocking convective weather is presented. This method seeks to improve the reduced capacity of sectors directly affected by weather by moving boundaries in a direction that offers the greatest capacity improvement. The boundary deformations are shared by neighboring sectors within the region in a manner that preserves their shapes and sizes as much as possible. This reduces the controller workload involved with learning new sector designs. The algorithm that produces the altered sectors is based on a force-deflection mesh model that needs only nominal traffic patterns and the shape of the blocking weather for input. It does not require weather-affected traffic patterns that would have to be predicted by simulation. When compared to an existing optimal sector design method, the sectors produced by the new algorithm are more similar to the original sector shapes, resulting in sectors that may be more suitable for operational use because the change is not as drastic. Also, preliminary results show that this method produces sectors that can equitably distribute the workload of rerouted weather-affected traffic throughout the region where inclement weather is present. This is demonstrated by sector aircraft count distributions of simulated traffic in weather-affected regions.

Drew, Michael C.

Share the Sky: Concepts and Technologies That Will Shape Future Airspace Use

The airspace challenge for the United States is to protect national sovereignty and ensure the safety and security of those on the ground and in the air, while at the same time ensuring the efficiency of flight, reducing the costs involved, protecting the environment, and protecting the freedom of access to the airspace. Many visions of the future NAS hold a relatively near-term perspective, focusing on existing uses of the airspace and assuming that new uses will make up a small fraction of total use. In the longer term, the skies will be filled with diverse and amazing new air vehicles filling our societal needs. Anticipated new vehicles include autonomous air vehicles acting both independently and in coordinated groups, unpiloted cargo carriers, and large numbers of personal air vehicles and small-scale point-to-point transports. These vehicles will enable new capabilities that have the potential to increase societal mobility, transport freight at lower cost and with lower environmental impact, improve the study of the Earth s atmosphere and ecosystem, and increase societal safety and security by improving or drastically lowering the cost of critical services such as firefighting, emergency medical evacuation, search and rescue, border and neighborhood surveillance, and the inspection of our infrastructure. To ensure that uses of the airspace can continue to grow for the benefit of all, a new paradigm for operations is needed: equitably and safely sharing the airspace. This paper is an examination of such a vision, concentrating on the operations of all types of air vehicles and future uses of the National Airspace. Attributes of a long-term future airspace system are provided, emerging operations technologies are described, and initial steps in research and development are recommended.

Ballin, Mark G.

Analysis of Traffic Conflicts in a Mixed-Airspace Evaluation of Airborne Separation Assurance

A pair of human-in-the-loop simulation evaluations of a distributed air/ground separation assurance system have been conducted to investigate the function allocation between humans and automation systems as well as ground-based and airborne agents in the Next Generation Air Transportation System and beyond. This paper focuses on an analysis of certain critical conflicts observed between self-separating aircraft and ground-managed traffic in the same airspace. The principal cause of each conflict is identified and potential mitigations are discussed, such as: the sharing of trajectory intent information between the ground and the air; more cautious trajectory planning by the self-separating aircraft; and more equitable rules-of-the-road between the self-separating aircraft and ground-managed aircraft. This analysis will inform the ongoing design of an airborne separation assurance automation tool.

Lewis, Timothy A.

Considerations in Managing the Fill Rate of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir Using a System Dynamics Approach.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate simulated fill rate scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam while taking into account plausible climate change outcomes for the Nile River Basin. The region lacks a comprehensive equitable water resource management strategy, which creates regional security concerns and future possible conflicts. We employ climate estimates from 33 general circulation models within a system dynamics model as a step in moving toward a feasible regional water resource management strategy. We find that annual reservoir fill rates of 8-15% are capable of building hydroelectric capacity in Ethiopia while concurrently ensuring a minimum level of stream flow disruption into Egypt before 2039. Insofar as climate change estimates suggest a modest average increase in stream flow into the Aswan, climate changes through 2039 are unlikely to affect the fill rate policies. However, larger fill rates will have a more detrimental effect on stream flow into the Aswan, particularly beyond a policy of 15%. While this study demonstrates that a technical solution for reservoir fill rates is feasible, the corresponding policy challenge is political. Implementation of water resource management strategies in the Nile River Basin specifically and Africa generally will necessitate a national and regional willingness to cooperate.

system dynamics

Measuring Global Water Security Towards Sustainable Development Goals

Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated-physical and socio-economic-approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

sustainable-development goals

The Interplanetary and Magnetospheric Causes of Extreme DB/dt at Equatorial Locations

The 1 min resolution solar wind and geomagnetic data obtained from seven equatorial low-latitude stations during four extreme geomagnetic activities are used to investigate the extreme dB/dt perturbations. Simulations of the magnetospheric-ionospheric environment were also performed for varying amplitudes of the solar proton density. Simulations were carried out using the Space Weather Modeling Framework BATS-R-US + RCM model. Both the observations and simulations demonstrated that the appearance time of the extreme dB/dt perturbations at equatorial stations during disturbed conditions is instantaneous and equitable to those experienced at auroral regions yielding time lags of the order of a few seconds. We find that the rapid dB/dt enhancements are caused by the electric field of magnetospheric current origin, which is being enhanced by solar wind density and ram pressure variations and boosted by the equatorial electro jet. Our results indicate that the solar wind proton density variations could be used as a predictor of extreme dB/dt enhancement at equatorial latitudes.

Adebesin, Babatunde O.

Integrated Demand Management: Minimizing Unanticipated Excessive Departure Delay while Ensuring Fairness from a Traffic Management Initiative

This paper introduces NASA's Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept and presents the results from an early proof-of-concept evaluation and an exploratory experiment. An initial development of the concept was focused on integrating two systems - i.e. the FAA's newly deployed Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) tool called the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) and the Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) system with Extended Metering (XM) capabilities to manage projected heavy traffic demand into a capacity-constrained airport. A human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation experiment was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the initial development of the concept by adapting it to an arrival traffic problem at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) during clear weather conditions. In this study, the CTOP was utilized to strategically plan the arrival traffic demand by controlling take-off times of both short- and long-haul flights (long-hauls specify aircraft outside TBFM regions and short-hauls specify aircraft within TBFM regions) in a way that results in equitable delays among the groups. Such strategic planning allows less airborne delay to occur within TBFM by feeding manageable long-haul traffic demand while reserving sufficient slots in the overhead streams for the short-haul departures. The manageable traffic demand indicates the TBFM scheduler assigns no more airborne delay than its assigned airspace is capable of absorbing. TBFM then uses its time-based metering capabilities to deliver the desirable throughput by tactically rescheduling the TBFM entered long-haul flights and short-haul departures. Additional research was also performed to explore use of Required Time of Arrival (RTA) capabilities as a potential control mechanism for the airborne flights to improve arrival traffic delivery accuracy of scheduled long-haul traffic demand. The study results show that both short- and long-haul flights received similar ground delays. In addition, there was a noticeable reduction in the total amount of excessive unanticipated last-minute ground delays, i.e. delays that are frequently imposed on the short-haul flight in current day operations due to saturation in the overhead stream, commonly referred to as 'double penalty'. Furthermore, the concept achieved the target throughput while minimizing the expected cost associated with overall delays in arrival traffic. Assessment of the RTA capabilities showed that there was indeed improvement of the scheduled entry times into TBFM regions by using RTA capabilities. However, with respect to reduction in delays incurred within TBFM, there was no observable benefit of improving the precision of long-haul flights entry times.

Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP)

Breakthrough Propulsion Study: Assessing Interstellar Flight Challenges and Prospects

Progress toward developing an evaluation process for interstellar propulsion and power options is described. The goal is to contrast the challenges, mission choices, and emerging prospects for propulsion and power, to identify which prospects might be more advantageous and under what circumstances, and to identify which technology details might have greater impacts. Unlike prior studies, the infrastructure expenses and prospects for breakthrough advances are included. This first year's focus is on determining the key questions to enable the analysis. Accordingly, a work breakdown structure to organize the information and associated list of variables is offered. A flow diagram of the basic analysis is presented, as well as more detailed methods to convert the performance measures of disparate propulsion methods into common measures of energy, mass, time, and power. Other methods for equitable comparisons include evaluating the prospects under the same assumptions of payload, mission trajectory, and available energy. Missions are divided into three eras of readiness (precursors, era of infrastructure, and era of breakthroughs) as a first step before proceeding to include comparisons of technology advancement rates. Final evaluation "figures of merit" are offered. Preliminary lists of mission architectures and propulsion prospects are provided.

Marc G. Millis

Qualifying Bulk Metallic Glass Gear Materials for Spacecraft Applications

NASA is evaluating bulk metallic glass (BMG) gears for extreme environment (cryogenic) applications; e.g., Europa Lander. The main purpose of this report is to recommend a quality assurance (QA) protocol for the production of consistent and reliable gear castings. Currently, there are two, separate manufacturers involved; Materion Corporation produces re-melt stock and Visser Precision Cast, Inc. produces BMG castings. Division of the existing alloy specifications document into material supplier-specific documents is proposed. Until a composition-based specification is established, processability- and performance-based methodologies may be an option during manufacturing development. It is recommended that each of the documents has a distinct focus; the processing behavior of crystalline feedstock, and the mechanical behavior of amorphous castings. The report addresses the “gray area” in QA testing between these materials suppliers by outlining an equitable division of responsibilities. The use of a number of dedicated reference dies to produce witness materials for physical and mechanical property evaluation is strongly recommended. Allocation of QA tests between screen testing of gear castings, and formal testing of witness materials, including cryogenic properties, is also proposed. The most effective suite of tests for both physical and mechanical property determination are down-selected from available national and international standards. The contents of this report create a solid basis for selection of QA tests, thereby setting the stage for negotiations between the materials suppliers and the customer.This technical paper:a) provides recommendations to advance materials specifications document JPL D-56223,Rev. A from “draft” to “preliminary” status;b) proposes division of the current document into two supplier-specific documents;c) separates testing methods by “ingots/castings” and “witness materials”;d) classifies test methodology based on “processability” and “performance”;e) assembles candidate ASTM specifications for “screen testing” and “formal testing”;f) identifies standard tests compatible with evaluation of BMG flexspline gears;g) suggests division of responsibilities for processability and performance testing; andh) addresses the QA “gray area” between production of ingots and castings.The report recommends that:a) processability- and performance-based QA methods might be used in lieu ofcompositional specifications during manufacturing development only;b) reference dies be designed for “acceptance” and “qualification” castings;c) witness materials provide physical and mechanical property data;d) formal testing be conducted at ambient and cryogenic temperatures; ande) processing/properties be correlated with compositional variations.

Hales, Stephen J.

Application of AI in the NAS - the Rationale for AI-Enhanced Airspace Management

This paper extends on the initial findings of "Application of Artificial Intelligence in the National Airspace System: A Primer" (Stroup & Niewoehner: Herndon, VA; ICNS-2019), and looks at why the current technologies, enterprise architecture, and future program plans may not be enough to address persistent operational challenges. This paper further explores why emergent operational concepts, business models, and demand profiles may necessitate AI-enhanced Communications, Navigation and Communications (CNS) infrastructure to disrupt current operational impediments. European airspace, as well as the NAS, has similar challenges. Key challenges explored in this study include: quantifiable improvements to NAS capacity, efficiency, and resiliency; traffic flow management of diverse users; UTM-ATM airspace integration; equitable access to airspace; and airborne-ground interoperability of AI applications. Finally, we examine why trustworthiness and resiliency will be key mileposts on the regulatory pathway to AI certification.

Aviation

Upper E Traffic Management

This is a slide set as part of a meeting series with members of a working group aimed at the development of a concept that addresses needs and gaps in the management of high altitude airspace operations. This concept leverages elements developed through the UAS Traffic Management project with respect to a cooperative, service-based approach that provides services and capabilities in areas (e.g., Upper E airspace) that currently receive no or limited service from Air Traffic Control. This concept is meant to provide a safe, fair, and scalable approach to management of Upper E operations that reduces the burden on ATC while providing the flexibility and access desired by current and new users of the airspace. This set of slides includes a presentation of Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance assessments as they relate to the ETM environment, a review of Industry thoughts on equitable airspace access and associated rules of the road, and an initial presentation of the separation assurance process and related negotiation aspect.

Upper E

Integrated Demand Management: The FCA Balancing Algorithm

The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) is a new NextGen function that resides within the FAA’s Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) software. CTOP was designed to be used in the United States’ national airspace to control the distribution of air traffic demand, both temporally and geographically, through a set of Flow Constrained Areas (FCAs). Each FCA is assigned capacity values that represent an estimated upper limit of manageable demand, and CTOP controls to that capacity by using Expect Departure Clearance Time (EDCT) air traffic control clearances, and/or rerouting flights to an alternate FCA or out of the CTOP completely. CTOP’s decisions about which control options best meet system and user needs are based on the Trajectory Options Set (TOS) submitted by airline operators for each flight. The FCA Balancing Algorithm (FBA) described in this document is a proposed decision support capability that generates CTOP capacity entries for FCAs controlling traffic to a common downstream constraint. The FBA provides an equitable distribution of impact, and addresses the added complexity of assigning FCA capacity values for this specific type of use case, greatly simplifying the FAA air traffic manager’s task.

IDM