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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Computer Vision on Edge Devices for the Short Term Prediction of Cloud Cover

Edge Computing and IoT are important pieces of today's technological landscape. Here, we build a low-cost IoT sensor for sky imaging and program it using AWS GreenGrass, one of the leading IoT platforms. We demonstrate remote reprogramming of this device to load software that predicts sun shading events through the linear advection method, which is a baseline algorithm that can be used to benchmark algorithmic improvements in future work. Some future directions for sky imaging research are enumerated.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

HEU Metal Delayed Critical Experiments with 10 to 19 Inch Thick Graphite Reflectors

Approximately 100 graphite-reflected highly enriched uranium (HEU, 93.14 wt % 235 U) metal annular and cylindrical critical experiments were performed in the early 1960s at the Oak Ridge Critical Experiments Facility (ORCEF). This report presents details from experiment logbooks, experimental data sheets and the author's memory for 44 HEU metal (93.14 wt % 235 U) critical assemblies with graphite reflectors varying from 10 to 19 in. thick, outside diameters varying from 7 to 15 in., inside diameters varying from 7 to 13 in. and critical HEU metal masses varying from 20.4 to 69.0 kg. The data from the 44 experiments described in this report are acceptable for use as criticality safety benchmark experiments for the International Criticality Safety Evaluation Program (ICSBEP) once the uncertainty analysis on the measured k eff is completed. Based on previous ICSBEP benchmarks with this HEU metal at ORCEF, the uncertainties in the measured k eff are expected to be as low as ±0.0004. Preparation of this report is part of an effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to document more than 15 undocumented series of critical and subcritical experiments enumerated in Critical and Subcritical NEA Benchmark Possibilities for Measurements at ORCEF and Other US DOE Facilities (Mihalzo, ORNL/TM-2019/1188, 2019) and performed by ORNL at ORCEF and other US Department of Energy critical experiments facilities. More than 500 operational days of critical facility time were used, not including setup and dismantlement time. This documentation for a part of one series of graphite reflected highly enriched uranium metal critical experiments, that used 50 operational days of ORCEF time, was performed using funding received from the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Nuclear Energy University Programs at the University of Tennessee Nuclear Engineering Department. This documentation was also supported by the Nuclear Criticality, Radiation Transport, and Safety programs at ORNL.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thriving in the Carbon-Aware Market: How to Account for Emissions in the Era of Carbon-Centered Trade Policies

Emerging global policies, such as the European Union's enacted Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and similar policies under development in Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom, will place a premium on goods traded into their territories with higher embedded emissions than those produced domestically. U.S. manufacturers could stand to benefit from such policies; given the investments U.S. industry has made to reduce the energy and emission intensities of its operations. For example, the overall GHG intensity of U.S. steel production in 2019 was ~0.96 t CO2/t steel, less than half that of China (~1.97 t CO2/t steel), and bested only by Italy. To realize these benefits, transparent, accurate, interoperable and accepted embedded emissions accounting and calculation methods are required. Achieving this requires overcoming challenges related to data availability, boundary definitions, and product definitions among others, both at individual facilities as well as through value chains. We will present technical findings on methodology considerations and data-availability constraints for determining the emissions of traded goods, using steel as a pilot and leveraging publicly available data. Issues such as determining the appropriate scope for emissions accounting, implications of the specificity of product chosen, emissions allocation in multi-product facilities, and enumeration of emissions for products manufactured across multiple facilities will be discussed. By sharing the results of our efforts, we aim to inform the development and execution of embedded emissions accounting methods from a technical perspective such that U.S. manufacturers can thrive in emerging global markets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

New principles of self‐organization created through the interplay of DNA condensates, microtubules, and motors

Bioinspired design—which holds great promise for a new generation of materials that are robust to defects, scalable under green manufacture, environmentally responsive, and programmably reconfigurable—requires mastery over molecular self-organization. Yet, from its specific mechanisms to most general architectures, the principles governing self-organization remain poorly understood and not even fully enumerated. For living systems, one obvious architectural principle is the modular reuse of a few simple molecular components in myriad combinations to achieve more complex phenomena. For example, the mechanical tasks of a cell are driven by the nonequilibrium dynamics of cytoskeletal filaments and molecular motors—the same filaments and motors, reprogrammed by a variety of modulators, perform tasks ranging from cell movement to division. Similarly, many compartmentalization tasks are performed by liquid-like condensates of simple components, which act as membraneless organelles to localize particular molecules in space and time (e.g. for gene regulation or RNA processing). In a few cases, condensates combine and interact with the cytoskeleton to create still more complex phenomena, e.g. the nucleation of microtubule asters from the centrosome (a protein condensate) to form the mitotic spindle during cell division. Very little is known about the fundamental mechanisms of such filament-plus-condensate phenomena. Despite few examples, the landscape of behaviors that can be achieved through the combination of condensates, filaments, and motors appears vast. However, exploration has been hindered by a lack of systems that have sufficiently programmable and dynamically tunable interactions between component condensates, filaments, and motors. We proposed to combine programmable DNA condensates, filamentous microtubules, and light-controlled motors into self-organizing systems whose principles go beyond those that have been observed in nature. In one limit, our systems will use microtubules and motors to create the molecular analog of a network of roads, which will organize droplets of DNA condensates capable of carrying molecular cargo. DNA condensates coupled to motors will flow from one microtubule aster hub to another, with their direction and timing controlled by DNA circuits. In another limit, microtubules will swim through bulk DNA condensates and exhibit strong interactions with boundaries between different types of condensates. Microtubule swimmers will reflect, get trapped, or refract at boundaries, under a mechanical analog of the classical optical index of refraction. DNA condensates having different mechanical indexes of refraction will be used to construct the analog of optical lenses, so that microtubule swimmers can be manipulated like light—collimated, diffracted, focused, and sorted based on properties analogous to wavelength. These two limits define two new architectures, within which multiple new mechanistic principles for self-organization will be discovered and explored. To explore these architectures, the motor-based coupling between DNA condensates and filaments will be controlled in time and space through the use of opto-proteins that create reversible links between DNA condensates and motors upon illumination. For each principle of interest, patterns of light will create virtual experiments by defining patterns of activity where DNA condensates walk along filaments, or filaments swim through condensates, and patterns of inactivity which will serve either as controls, or as boundary conditions vital to create the desired phenomena. This research serves the goals of Basic Energy Sciences Biomolecular Material Program by elucidating the principles by which the emergent, nonequilibrium behavior of collections of DNA condensates, motors, and microtubules can be programmed by environmental light patterns to create complex motion and materials transport. Because DNA condensates can be readily coupled to virtually any high performance nanomaterial, from carbon nanotubes, to metal nanoparticles, to light harvesting systems, this work provides a path to the construction, self-maintenance and reconfiguration of materials relevant to the Department of Energy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of Harsh Environments, At-Risk Microgrid Components, and Hardening Technologies (Report Version 0.1)

Microgrid implementation can help improve electrical service, reliability, and resilience for localized communities. However, they may be susceptible to damage from natural disasters and extreme weather events, which often coincide with times of greater community dependence on microgrids due to likely increased vulnerability of equipment on the main grid. Microgrid equipment can be protected against these hazards through various hardening techniques. The selection of hardening mitigations may depend on the actual risk of the hazard in the specific location and for the specific type of system, as well as cost and feasibility factors. This report summarizes a framework that can be used to characterize risk to a microgrid system from a list of natural hazards enumerated by FEMA. We also describe hardening techniques and mitigations that can be used for specific energy generation, storage, loads, and power delivery elements within a microgrid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Chlorine isotope separations using thermal diffusion

In a chloride molten salt fast reactor (Cl-MSFR), the fuel salt might be comprised of a specific eutectic composition of alkali and alkaline chlorides that solubilize major and minor actinide chlorides as the fertile component(s). Each of the chloride species contain the natural abundance ( 35 Cl ~76% and 37 Cl ~24%) of the two stable isotopes of chlorine 35 Cl and 37 Cl. There has been an ongoing controversy for the operation of the Cl-MSFRs concerning the potential of the 35 Cl(n,γ) 36 Cl, 35 Cl(n,p) 35 S, 35 Cl(n,α) 32 S reactions to produce 36 Cl, 32 S, and 32 P at relevant energies [Bulmer 1956]. The undesirable attributes of irradiated 35 Cl are enumerated further below.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Programmable Digital Devices used in Advanced Reactors

This paper introduces the concepts of common cause failure, diversity, and defense-in-depth used by the nuclear industry to analyze resilience in reactors. A survey of publicly traded and private companies building advanced reactors and their licensing status is presented. Safety and non-safety systems found in the NuScale Power design are summarized and the likely hardware and software categories used by those systems are enumerated. The importance of industry partners is highlighted. This paper also identifies an alternate path forward without industry partners to advance the knowledge needed to use artificial intelligence to analyze HBOMs and SBOMs to better understand reactor resiliency.

cybersecurity↗

DOE OSTI2026

Soil viral production count, respiration, and amplicon data

This study aimed to quantify rates of viral production in aridisol soil under conditions as close to natural field soil as possible given the perturbations necessary to manipulate viral abundances. Viruses were removed from soil, then added back to virus-depleted soil to control the initial viral abundances at either 100% (field_abund) or 10% (reduced_abund) of measured field viral abundance to generate treatments with field-relevant and reduced viral infection pressure, respectively. Replicates of batch incubation jars were harvested every 8 hours for 48 hours to enumerate bacteria and viruses by microscopy (n=5) and profile bacterial community composition by 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing (n=3).

Zimmerman, Amy [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative Analysis of Rhodobacter sphaeroides Storage Organelles via Cryo-Electron Tomography and Light Microscopy

Bacterial cytoplasmic organelles are diverse and serve many varied purposes. Here, we employed Rhodobacter sphaeroides to investigate the accumulation of carbon and inorganic phosphate in the storage organelles, polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) and polyphosphate (PP), respectively. Using cryo-electron tomography (cryo-ET), these organelles were observed to increase in size and abundance when growth was arrested by chloramphenicol treatment. The accumulation of PHB and PP was quantified from three-dimensional (3D) segmentations in cryo-tomograms and the analysis of these 3D models. The quantification of PHB using both segmentation analysis and liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry (LCMS) each demonstrated an over 10- to 20-fold accumulation of PHB. The cytoplasmic location of PHB in cells was assessed with fluorescence light microscopy using a PhaP-mNeonGreen fusion-protein construct. The subcellular location and enumeration of these organelles were correlated by comparing the cryo-ET and fluorescence microscopy data. A potential link between PHB and PP localization and possible explanations for co-localization are discussed. Finally, the study of PHB and PP granules, and their accumulation, is discussed in the context of advancing fundamental knowledge about bacterial stress response, the study of renewable sources of bioplastics, and highly energetic compounds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Yet Another Discriminant Analysis (YADA): A Probabilistic Model for Machine Learning Applications

This paper presents a probabilistic model for various machine learning (ML) applications. While deep learning (DL) has produced state-of-the-art results in many domains, DL models are complex and over-parameterized, which leads to high uncertainty about what the model has learned, as well as its decision process. Further, DL models are not probabilistic, making reasoning about their output challenging. In contrast, the proposed model, referred to as Yet Another Discriminate Analysis(YADA), is less complex than other methods, is based on a mathematically rigorous foundation, and can be utilized for a wide variety of ML tasks including classification, explainability, and uncertainty quantification. YADA is thus competitive in most cases with many state-of-the-art DL models. Ideally, a probabilistic model would represent the full joint probability distribution of its features, but doing so is often computationally expensive and intractable. Hence, many probabilistic models assume that the features are either normally distributed, mutually independent, or both, which can severely limit their performance. YADA is an intermediate model that (1) captures the marginal distributions of each variable and the pairwise correlations between variables and (2) explicitly maps features to the space of multivariate Gaussian variables. Numerous mathematical properties of the YADA model can be derived, thereby improving the theoretic underpinnings of ML. Validation of the model can be statistically verified on new or held-out data using native properties of YADA. However, there are some engineering and practical challenges that we enumerate to make YADA more useful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Do Molecular Fingerprints Identify Diverse Active Drugs in Large-Scale Virtual Screening? (No)

Computational approaches for small-molecule drug discovery now regularly scale to the consideration of libraries containing billions of candidate small molecules. One promising approach to increased the speed of evaluating billion-molecule libraries is to develop succinct representations of each molecule that enable the rapid identification of molecules with similar properties. Molecular fingerprints are thought to provide a mechanism for producing such representations. Here, we explore the utility of commonly used fingerprints in the context of predicting similar molecular activity. We show that fingerprint similarity provides little discriminative power between active and inactive molecules for a target protein based on a known active—while they may sometimes provide some enrichment for active molecules in a drug screen, a screened data set will still be dominated by inactive molecules. We also demonstrate that high-similarity actives appear to share a scaffold with the query active, meaning that they could more easily be identified by structural enumeration. Furthermore, even when limited to only active molecules, fingerprint similarity values do not correlate with compound potency. In sum, these results highlight the need for a new wave of molecular representations that will improve the capacity to detect biologically active molecules based on their similarity to other such molecules.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 2: Properties of a huge ensemble of hindcasts generated with spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. In Part 1, we created an ensemble based on spherical Fourier neural operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires orders-of-magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. HENS has two primary applications: (1) as a large dataset with which to study the statistics and drivers of extreme weather and (2) as a weather forecasting system. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4σ away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS increases the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ten Pressing Questions (and Answers) About Marine Fungi and Opportunities for Collaborations in the Ocean Sciences

Nearly 200 years have passed since the first marine fungus, collected from the shores of North Africa, was described. In that time, marine mycologists have continued to observe, describe, and study fungi in every marine ecosystem examined. Nevertheless, fungi remain functionally “dark matter” of the ocean, presenting a grand opportunity to unravel their roles in ecosystem processes. This report outlines the discussion among participants of the second occasional meeting of marine mycologists at Asilomar, California, in March 2024, in which a diverse and interdisciplinary consortium of researchers enumerated the most pressing, and often basic, unanswered questions in marine fungi. We report on the questions facing the field of marine mycology, identify challenges in addressing those questions, and propose concrete and practical solutions for obtaining their answers. A common thread is the need for increasing cross talk and collaboration between mycologists and oceanographers that would present opportunities for readers to participate in a rapidly growing field.

Amend, Anthony S. [Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honol↗

DOE OSTI2024

To What Extent Will Decarbonization Deepen the Conversation Between Industry and the Grid?

Decarbonization - the transition away from un-mitigated fossil fuel combustion throughout the economy - requires big changes from both power and process systems. On the power system side, those changes are expected to include large increases in variable generation, e.g., from wind and solar, which has near-zero marginal costs and at large shares can produce infrequent but consequential energy droughts. On the process systems side, industries are investigating their options for direct and indirect electrification, the latter exemplified by replacing fossil fuel inputs with zero-carbon, energy-carrying chemicals like hydrogen and ammonia produced via electrochemical processes. The economic features of these changes within the larger context of power and process systems suggest that their realization could be accompanied by a paradigm shift in how industrial facilities interact with the grid. For example, the dominant type of demand participation in power markets could change from today's focus on load reductions at peak times to a new focus on shifting electricity use, enabled in part by large-scale product storage, to take advantage of renewable energy that would otherwise be curtailed and to avoid consumption during high-price energy droughts. This talk will describe these and other possible design and operational approaches from grid and industrial economic perspectives, culminating in an enumeration of open problems that lie at the interface of today and tomorrow's power and process systems.

co-design↗

DOE OSTI2024

Design of a Launcher for Wildlife Collision Simulation on Wind Turbines to Validate Strike Detection Systems

Design and construction of a custom launcher and projectiles to simulate wildlife collisions with wind turbines is investigated. The various design features that led to success of the launcher are enumerated and described in detail. These features include custom projectiles, precision aiming capabilities, repeatable launch parameters, and azimuthal control over projectile launch. Success is investigated in terms of an overall hit percentage.

collision simulation↗

DOE OSTI2025

CHEMREASONER: Heuristic Search over a Large Language Model’s Knowledge Space using Quantum-Chemical Feedback

The discovery of new catalysts is essential for the design of new and more efficient chemical processes in order to transition to a sustainable future. We introduce an AI-guided computational screening framework unifying linguistic reasoning with quantum-chemistry based feedback from 3D atomistic representations. Our approach formulates catalyst discovery as an uncertain environment where an agent actively searches for highly effective catalysts via the iterative combination of large language model (LLM)-derived hypotheses and atomistic graph neural network (GNN)-derived feedback. Identified catalysts in intermediate search steps undergo structural evaluation based on spatial orientation, reaction pathways, and stability. Scoring functions based on adsorption energies and barriers steer the exploration in the LLM's knowledge space toward energetically favorable, high-efficiency catalysts. We introduce planning methods that automatically guide the exploration without human input, providing competitive performance against expert-enumerated chemical descriptor-based implementations. By integrating language-guided reasoning with computational chemistry feedback, our work pioneers AI-accelerated, trustworthy catalyst discovery.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automation of Vulnerability and Patch Management: Information Extraction, Association, and Optimization

Vulnerability and patch management is an integral part of a robust cybersecurity program, yet it grows increasingly complex due to the sheer amount of data that must be analyzed. Particularly in Operational Technology (OT) environments, analysis must be done manually because of the lack of automated solutions. Additionally, there are many steps in this process, from the initial discovery of the vulnerability to the implementation of its remediation, and each step in the process requires different data in order to be performed effectively. In this work, we provide approaches and strategies to assist operators in industrial or OT environments throughout the vulnerability management cycle. Security advisories provide key information about mitigation strategies, or actions that can be taken when a patch is unavailable or cannot be installed. Details of these strategies are not shared in public vulnerability databases and must be found manually. We approach this problem by designing a solution to automatically identify that information within vendor security advisories and retrieve it for operator use. We start with an approach that requires domain-specific knowledge of certain frequently-seen reference websites. Next, an approach that can work on an arbitrary website but relies on certain keywords. Finally, an approach that uses Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods and does not require specific knowledge or keywords. Each of these approaches is more general than its predecessor; we demonstrate high accuracy for all approaches Advisories also often contain details of affected products in non-standard or natural language formats. While this information can be easily understood when read by an operator, the non-standard format acts as a barrier to effective automation. We provide an approach for the first step in this process: identifying vendors in security advisories and mapping them to a standard framework for representing digital assets and software products. We evaluate five established string similarity algorithms, plus one of our own design that combines string similarity and information theory, on the task of mapping vendors to their corresponding entries in the Common Platform Enumeration (CPE) repository. Our results show that our proposed metric outperforms all others. Due to the constraints on time, finances, and personnel for organizations, Large Language Models (LLMs) may seem like attractive opportunities for security operators to speed up information gathering; however, it is still not clear whether LLMs can handle vulnerability management tasks well. To answer this question, we perform an empirical study of LLMs’ ability to provide consistent, accurate information about vulnerabilities in order to guide organizations in their adoption of LLMs. We observe poor performance for all models tested, suggesting that these models are not well-suited to the consistent retrieval of accurate vulnerability information. Finally, once vulnerabilities have been identified and any additional information has been obtained, operators must decide which remediation actions to implement based on their available resources. This already-complex problem becomes even more so when we consider that a vulnerability may have multiple avenues for remediation. We formulate this scenario as two knapsack problems and provide solutions, which we then compare against several existing strategies for vulnerability prioritization seen in real operational environments.

McClanahan, Kylie↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving Cyber Situational Understanding

Effective cybersecurity operations require the ability to analyze large amounts of information to assess security risks and formulate defensive strategies against adversaries. This has become more complex in recent years as the sprawl and interconnectivity of devices grows through implementation of virtualization, cloud computing, and Internet of Things (IoT). The amount of data and analysis required for effective cybersecurity command and control decisions far exceeds humans’ capacity to perform manually. We characterize the analysis problem as cyber situational understanding. The research presented to improve cyber situational understanding focuses on vulnerability analysis and threat intelligence. Regarding vulnerabilities, entities must analyze and plan work for between thousands and tens of thousands of software vulnerabilities annually. Entities heavily use network firewalls to limit vulnerability exposure. As a result, some of these vulnerabilities permit exposure to adversarial exploitation, whereas others are inaccessible and therefore present negligible risk of exploitation. Distinguishing between high and low risk software vulnerabilities requires a deep understanding of the vulnerability, network firewall protection, and characteristics of the targeted device. This problem is solved by extracting network service features from vulnerability data features using both machine-learning and natural language processing. Then, the network firewall topology is parsed to determine which vulnerabilities are reachable by adversaries. Ultimately, a state-based safety analysis ascertains which vulnerabilities are unsafe. A related vulnerability analysis problem occurs in cybersecurity operations when associating an entity’s hardware and software assets to public vulnerability databases. Assets often reveal hardware and software through installation artifacts and network service identification, and entities store these artifacts in inventory databases. However, software and hardware vendors apply a standard Common Platform Enumeration (CPE) naming convention when publicly reporting vulnerabilities. Associating these two datasets often requires many hours to days of manual inspection. The proposed solution automates the mapping approach of human analysts using fuzzy matching techniques, natural language processing, and, ultimately, machine learning to present a small set of recommendations for mapping the two datasets. The result significantly reduces human analysis time and reduces the occurrence of false positives in vulnerability notifications. Finally, cyber threat intelligence (CTI) requires associating cyber observable artifacts, such as IP addresses, URIs, and file hashes, with cyber threat tactics, techniques, and procedures. Unfortunately, most CTI data is compartmentalized across multiple organizations and cannot be shared due to the legal and reputational risk with cyber threat being associated with the entity. The approach to solving this problem inovlves using a distributed ledger with anonymous token spending and authentication. This allows a consortium of semi-trusted entities to share the workload of curating CTI for a threat sharing community’s cooperative benefit.

Huff, Philip↗