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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More / All Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL) Vehicle Sensitivities to Propulsion and Power Performance

Battery power and energy density are important parameters for the emerging concepts for more / all-electric vehicles. Electric propulsion and power system performance is also important. To better understand how electric propulsion and power systems component performance influences overall vehicle design, a sensitivity assessment was performed noting changes in vehicle gross weight and energy usage. Updated versions of the Revolutionary Vertical lift Technology (RVLT) Project vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) urban air mobility (UAM) reference vehicles and missions were used. NASA electric vehicle studies are discussed which were used to help select the range of electric propulsion and power system performance parameters used in this assessment. Thermal management systems (TMS) considerations are also important; new and innovative power management and distribution systems can reduce electric system weight and losses, reducing thermal management constraints often imposed by electric systems modest maximum use temperatures. Vehicles with higher disk loadings (smaller rotors) require higher power levels per unit weight for VTOL operations, which make them more sensitive to electric system weights and efficiencies. Battery, all-electric vehicles show different sensitivities to component performance than turboelectric or hybrids systems. Battery, all-electric propulsion systems may increase vehicle weight and size, but still results in lower mission energy usage than their hydrocarbon-fueled versions. Significant vehicle weight growth to electric propulsion and power system power-to-weight reductions also occurs at different levels among the various concepts. From these results, one can more readily identify required component performance levels, potential component choices or, research and development paths.

Electric Propulsion Systems (Aircraft)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More / All Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL) Vehicle Sensitivities to Propulsion and Power Performance

electric propulsion systems (aircraft) mission ana↗

NASA NTRS2013

Revolutionary Aeropropulsion Concept for Sustainable Aviation: Turboelectric Distributed Propulsion

In response to growing aviation demands and concerns about the environment and energy usage, a team at NASA proposed and examined a revolutionary aeropropulsion concept, a turboelectric distributed propulsion system, which employs multiple electric motor-driven propulsors that are distributed on a large transport vehicle. The power to drive these electric propulsors is generated by separately located gas-turbine-driven electric generators on the airframe. This arrangement enables the use of many small-distributed propulsors, allowing a very high effective bypass ratio, while retaining the superior efficiency of large core engines, which are physically separated but connected to the propulsors through electric power lines. Because of the physical separation of propulsors from power generating devices, a new class of vehicles with unprecedented performance employing such revolutionary propulsion system is possible in vehicle design. One such vehicle currently being investigated by NASA is called the "N3-X" that uses a hybrid-wing-body for an airframe and superconducting generators, motors, and transmission lines for its propulsion system. On the N3-X these new degrees of design freedom are used (1) to place two large turboshaft engines driving generators in freestream conditions to minimize total pressure losses and (2) to embed a broad continuous array of 14 motor-driven fans on the upper surface of the aircraft near the trailing edge of the hybrid-wing-body airframe to maximize propulsive efficiency by ingesting thick airframe boundary layer flow. Through a system analysis in engine cycle and weight estimation, it was determined that the N3-X would be able to achieve a reduction of 70% or 72% (depending on the cooling system) in energy usage relative to the reference aircraft, a Boeing 777-200LR. Since the high-power electric system is used in its propulsion system, a study of the electric power distribution system was performed to identify critical dynamic and safety issues. This paper presents some of the features and issues associated with the turboelectric distributed propulsion system and summarizes the recent study results, including the high electric power distribution, in the analysis of the N3-X vehicle.

Kim, Hyun Dae↗

DOE OSTI2021

U.S.-China Clean Energy Research Center Building Energy Efficiency (CERC-BEE) Open-Source Retrofit Targeting Tool (CRADA FP00007338 Final Report)

To increase the cost-saving energy and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reductions in buildings and portfolios at the scale and speed necessary to limit climate change, researchers at LBNL and Johnson Controls (JCI) developed the Building Efficiency Targeting Tool for Energy Retrofits (BETTER). BETTER is a software tool that consists of three components: (1) the BETTER analytical engine source code (which was developed with intellectual property provided by JCI under CRADA FP00007338); (2) the BETTER web application, developed by LBNL and McQuillen Interactive Pty. Ltd; and (3) the BETTER application programming interface (API), also developed by LBNL and McQuillen Interactive Pty. Ltd. BETTER enables building and portfolio owners, managers, and service providers worldwide to quickly, easily identify cost-saving energy efficiency retrofits in existing buildings and portfolios without expensive site visits or complex modeling. With minimal data input, the tool benchmarks a building’s electric and fossil energy usage against peers; quantifies energy, cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction potentials at the building and portfolio levels; and recommends energy efficiency measures to decarbonize and electrify buildings and portfolios, targeting specific energy savings levels. No other tool so comprehensively analyzes buildings and portfolios with such ease. If fully implemented, it is estimated that BETTER could help reduce emissions equivalent to planting 1.3 billion trees globally by 2030. Moreover, an additional 50-75% of embodied GHG emissions could be avoided in each case where BETTER results in a building being retrofitted instead of demolished and replaced, providing substantial additional decarbonization benefits for the buildings sector. BETTER has garnered multiple awards and avid interest from investors. In 2020, it earned a R&D 100 Award for innovation and a LBNL Director’s Award for Technology Transfer. In 2021, BETTER was named an EarthX E-Capital Summit Climate Tech Prize semi-finalist

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2011

Green Aerospace Fuels from Nonpetroleum Sources

Efforts to produce green aerospace propellants from nonpetroleum sources are outlined. The paper begins with an overview of feedstock processing and relevant small molecule or C1 chemistry. Gas-to-liquid technologies, notably Fischer-Tropsch (FT) processing of synthesis gas (CO and H2), are being optimized to enhance the fraction of product stream relevant to aviation (and other transportation) fuels at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). Efforts to produce optimized catalysts are described. Given the high cost of space launch, the recycling of human metabolic and plastic wastes to reduce the need to transport consumables to orbit to support the crew of a space station has long been recognized as a high priority. If the much larger costs of transporting consumables to the Moon or beyond are taken into account, the importance of developing waste recycling systems becomes still more imperative. One promising way to transform organic waste products into useful gases is steam reformation; this well-known technology is currently being optimized by a Colorado company for exploration and planetary surface operations. Reduction of terrestrial waste streams while producing energy and/or valuable raw materials is an opportunity being realized by a new generation of visionary entrepreneurs. A technology that has successfully demonstrated production of fuels and related chemicals from waste plastics developed in Northeast Ohio is described. Technologies being developed by a Massachusetts company to remove sulfur impurities are highlighted. Common issues and concerns for nonpetroleum fuel production are emphasized. Energy utilization is a concern for production of fuels whether a terrestrial operation or on the lunar (or Martian) surface; the term green relates to not only mitigating excess carbon release but also to the efficiency of grid-energy usage. For space exploration, energy efficiency can be an essential concern. Other issues of great concern include minimizing impurities in the product stream(s), especially those that potential health risks and/or could degrade operations through catalyst poisoning or equipment damage. The potential impacts on future missions by such concerns are addressed in closing.

Hepp, Aloysius F.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting industrial building energy consumption with statistical and machine-learning models informed by physical system parameters

The industrial sector consumes about one-third of global energy, making them a frequent target for energy use reduction. Variation in energy usage is observed with weather conditions, as space conditioning needs to change seasonally, and with production, energy-using equipment is directly tied to production rate. Previous models were based on engineering analyses of equipment and relied on site-specific details. Others consisted of single-variable regressors that did not capture all contributions to energy consumption. Further, new modeling techniques could be applied to rectify these weaknesses. Applying data from 45 different manufacturing plants obtained from industrial energy audits, a supervised machine-learning model is developed to create a general predictor for industrial building energy consumption. The model uses features of air enthalpy, solar radiation, and wind speed to predict weather-dependency; motor, steam, and compressed air system parameters to capture support equipment contributions; and operating schedule, production rate, number of employees, and floor area to determine production-dependency. Results showed that a model that used a linear regressor over a transformed feature space could outperform a support vector machine and utilize features more representative of physical systems. Using informed parameters to build a reliable predictor will more accurately characterize a manufacturing facility's energy savings opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1983

Energy consumption analysis of the Venus Deep Space Station (DSS-13)

This report continues the energy consumption analysis and verification study of the tracking stations of the Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex, and presents an audit of the Venus Deep Space Station (DSS 13). Due to the non-continuous radioastronomy research and development operations at the station, estimations of energy usage were employed in the energy consumption simulation of both the 9-meter and 26-meter antenna buildings. A 17.9% decrease in station energy consumption was experienced over the 1979-1981 years under study. A comparison of the ECP computer simulations and the station's main watt-hour meter readings showed good agreement.

Hayes, N. V.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Virtual Flight Demonstration of the Stratospheric Dual-Aircraft Platform

A baseline configuration for the dual-aircraft platform (DAP) concept is described and evaluated in a physics-based flight dynamics simulations for two month-long missions as a communications relay in the lower stratosphere above central Florida, within 150-miles of downtown Orlando.The DAP configuration features two large glider-like (130 ft wing span) unmanned aerial vehicles connected via a long adjustable cable (total extendible length of 3000 ft) which effectively sail without propulsion using available wind shear. Use of onboard LiDAR wind profilers to forecast wind distributions are found to be necessary to enable the platform to efficiently adjust flight conditions to remain sailing by finding sufficient wind shear across the platform. The aircraft derive power from solar cells, like a conventional solar aircraft, but also extract wind power using the propeller as a turbine when there is an excess of wind shear available.Month-long atmospheric profiles (at 3-5 min intervals) in the vicinity of 60,000-ft are derived from archived data measured by the 50-Mhz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler at Cape Canaveral and used in the DAP flight simulations. A cursory evaluation of these datasets show that sufficient wind shear for DAP sailing is persistent, suggesting that DAP could potentially sail over 90% of the month-long durations even when limited by modest ascent/descent rates.DAP's novel guidance software uses a non-linear constrained optimization technique to define waypoints such that sailing mode of flight is maintained where possible, and minimal thrust is required where sailing is not practical. A set of constraints are identified which result in waypoints that enable efficient flight (i.e., minimal use of propulsion) over the two month-long flight simulations. Waypoint solutions may need to be tabulated for a wide range of potential atmospheric conditions and stored onboard for quick retrieval on a real DAP.DAP's flight control software uses an unconventional mixture of spacecraft and aircraft control techniques. Flight simulations confirms that this controls approach enables the platform to consistently reach successive waypoints over the month-long flight simulations.The ability of DAP to transition between the sailing mode (i.e., cable tension is high) and standard formation flight (i.e., cable tension is low) is a vital capability (e.g., to enable intermittent turns while stationkeeping). A new method to perform these transitions has been identified and characterized with flight simulation which requires special aircraft modifications.The energy-usage of the DAP configuration during two month-long stationkeeping missions over central Florida (i.e., stationkeeping over Orlando) is evaluated and compared to that of a pure solar aircraft of the same weight and aerodynamic performance. DAP is shown to consistently reduce net propulsion usage while simultaneously increasing solar energy capture.A baseline 700 GHz communications system is described and its performance evaluated for the proposed mission over central Florida. It is found that the variable roll orientation of the aircraft would increase the power required to maintain coverage over the stationkeeping radius of 150 miles (e.g., by as much as 100% when DAP is 150 miles from Orlando), compared to level flight. This effect can be mitigated via additional antenna design complexity or a more restricted stationkeeping radius.

Demonstrations↗

DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities to Expand Building Efficiency Programming at Community Colleges

According to the most recent U.S. Energy and Employment Report, more than 2.3 million workers in the United States are involved in activities that reduce energy usage in buildings. This workforce supports energy efficiency from the design of buildings and their systems through the manufacturing and trade of components and supplies involved in these systems to the installation, repair, and maintenance of these systems. Less than 10% of the workers in key building efficiency occupations have a bachelor’s or higher degree, compared to ~40% of the general workforce. Thus, the community college system is a key stakeholder in training and educating a large portion of the building efficiency workforce. Despite this, the literature review conducted for this report found almost no research focused on better understanding and supporting the role of community colleges as they train this workforce at scale. This report seeks to understand how and to what extent building efficiency and advanced building technology concepts are being addressed in community colleges as well as potential pathways for schools to consider to better prepare students to enter the building efficiency industry. The first section presents information from a literature review and data analysis to provide background on the building efficiency workforce, the types of building efficiency training and education available from community colleges, and the barriers and challenges that exist in the workforce. The second section offers a series of case studies that illustrate the various ways that building efficiency content can be addressed at community colleges. The final section provides an overview of the opportunities available to community colleges as well as considerations for schools that want to increase building efficiency programming.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2000

System Design Techniques for Reducing the Power Requirements of Advanced life Support Systems

The high power requirement associated with overall operation of regenerative life support systems is a critical Z:p technological challenge. Optimization of individual processors alone will not be sufficient to produce an optimized system. System studies must be used in order to improve the overall efficiency of life support systems. Current research efforts at NASA Ames Research Center are aimed at developing approaches for reducing system power and energy usage in advanced life support systems. System energy integration and energy reuse techniques are being applied to advanced life support, in addition to advanced control methods for efficient distribution of power and thermal resources. An overview of current results of this work will be presented. The development of integrated system designs that reuse waste heat from sources such as crop lighting and solid waste processing systems will reduce overall power and cooling requirements. Using an energy integration technique known as Pinch analysis, system heat exchange designs are being developed that match hot and cold streams according to specific design principles. For various designs, the potential savings for power, heating and cooling are being identified and quantified. The use of state-of-the-art control methods for distribution of resources, such as system cooling water or electrical power, will also reduce overall power and cooling requirements. Control algorithms are being developed which dynamically adjust the use of system resources by the various subsystems and components in order to achieve an overall goal, such as smoothing of power usage and/or heat rejection profiles, while maintaining adequate reserves of food, water, oxygen, and other consumables, and preventing excessive build-up of waste materials. Reductions in the peak loading of the power and thermal systems will lead to lower overall requirements. Computer simulation models are being used to test various control system designs.

Finn, Cory↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effects of ambient temperature on electric vehicle range considering battery Performance, powertrain Efficiency, and HVAC load

Here, this study investigates the impact of ambient temperature on the range of electric vehicles (EVs) by analyzing its effects on usable battery energy (UBE), heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) energy consumption, and powertrain energy losses. Chassis dynamometer tests within a thermal chamber were conducted under various temperature conditions to investigate these impacts. The results indicate that lower temperatures lead to a decrease in UBE for lithium-ion batteries in EVs. At −18 °C, the UBE exhibited reductions of 4---8 % compared to the UBE at 22 °C. Battery thermal management strategies significantly affected the UBE loss, with different strategies resulting in distinct UBE reductions. HVAC energy consumption, especially for interior heating, proved to be the most dominant variable affecting EV driving range. Larger discrepancies between the HVAC target temperature (22 °C) and the ambient temperature increased HVAC energy usage. The type of HVAC system also influenced energy consumption, where EVs equipped with heat pumps demonstrated lower energy consumption for heating compared to those relying solely on resistance heaters. Ambient temperature also influenced motor energy consumption due to increased frictions, powertrain losses and tire rolling resistance at lower temperatures; consequently, regenerative braking energy decreased in cold conditions. Combining these effects influenced the overall energy consumption and driving range of EVs. At −18 °C, the driving range saw a substantial decrease of up to 60 % compared to 22 °C, while a slight decrease was observed at 35 °C.

Ambient Temperature↗

NASA NTRS1975

Hydrogen utilization and alternatives

The historical uses of hydrogen are described along with potential new uses which could develop as a result of the diminishing supply of conventional fossil fuels such as natural gas. A perspective view of hydrogen, both as a chemical feedstock and as a fuel, is necessary to understand its relationship to the overall national energy projections. These projections, which show energy usage in terms of use sectors, forms of energy, and sources of energy, do not specifically identify hydrogen as a component of the energy system. By superimposing the traditional roles upon the new opportunities for hydrogen on the energy projections, the role of hydrogen and future projections is developed within the context of the national energy projections. Use, supply, and other factors affecting application are interrelated and are discussed.

Manvi, R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hybrid power plants: An effective way of decreasing loss-of-load expectation

Diversifying variable renewable resources by combining wind, solar photovoltaic, and battery assets in a hybrid power plant can increase renewable energy usage efficiency and improve system flexibility, particularly in distributed energy systems. However, the resilience impact of these systems, particularly outage mitigation, can be difficult to quantify due to uncertainty in resource, energy demand, and outage occurrence. Here, this study outlines a framework to quantify the incremental benefit of hybrid power plant assets for reducing loss-of-load expectation during random outage events. Hybrid power plant performance during outages (considering varying duration and severity) is simulated using a Monte Carlo methodology to reflect uncertainty associated with renewable resource, load demand, and outage timing. Results demonstrate the additional incremental value from increasingly hybrid designs, in which relative capacities of wind, solar photovoltaic, and storage assets contribute to lower loss-of-load expectation than the constituent technologies would alone. The value of added wind or solar capacity increases as the plant composition approaches an equal split. The value of added battery capacity depends on the outage duration and severity, but the first 50 MWh of added storage capacity is the most valuable for reducing the loss-of-load expectation for all plant designs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy Improvements of Fire Station 71

Since 2018, the City of Shawnee, Kansas has completed two phases of the State of Kansas Facility Conservation Improvement Program (FCIP), an initiative that guarantees operational cost and energy savings through targeted construction improvements on City facilities and infrastructure. The City is currently in the third phase of this FCIP, where one of the projects included an investment in energy improvements for Fire Station 71 (FS 71). The City partnered with Navitas, an Energy Service Company (ESCO), to implement a Photovoltaic Solar Array on FS71. The purpose of this project was to invest in sustainable building improvements with Energy Conservation Measures (ECM) to bring cost savings to the City and to provide sustainable benefits to the residents of Shawnee. In the first task of the project, Navitas collaborated with the City of Shawnee and the Community Development Department to determine the optimal layout and schedule for the installation of the solar array on FS 71. In the second task of the project, Navitas installed the 99.8 kW DC Photovoltaic solar array system. This system installation comprised of racking, inverters, optimizers, load center, and disconnect, which were all installed at a total ECM price of $\$$247,948. The third task focused on start-up and commissioning of the array. Navitas installed a real-time data analytics information management system integrated with utility meters, which evaluates the operations of the utility system and verifies operation of equipment and ensures optimum operation for energy efficiency. In the final task of this project, this analytics system was used for monitoring and verification, which will continue to be used to evaluate the success of the project for the coming years. The primary goal of the project was to install the 99.8 kW DC PV solar array at FS 71 to demonstrate the viability of solar energy systems in essential municipal facilities. Fire stations are energy demanding structures, as they require a constant intake of power and have a high baseline energy usage. The success of solar arrays on a fire station exemplifies their energy efficiency and effectiveness and displays their potential for application on other city facilities. By installing a solar array at such a facility, the City sought not only to offset electricity usage but also to serve as a model for ECMs in other municipal facilities and infrastructure projects. From an economic standpoint, this project demonstrates the feasibility of renewable energy at the municipal level. The total project cost of $\$$247,948 was split evenly between city funds and award funding, minimizing financial risk while ensuring guaranteed long-term savings. Any excess savings that are beyond the guaranteed minimums remain with the city, which enables future investment in sustainable energy initiatives. This project provides many benefits to the public. In addition to reducing the environmental footprint of city operations, it lowers taxpayer-funded utility spending and improves the energy security of a critical facility. The knowledge gained from this implementation motivates the City to focus on similar efforts across other public facilities in future FCIP phases and other City projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Study of Cost-Saving Potential of Load Flexibility Measures in Grid-Interactive Multifamily Buildings

With recent advances in smart technologies, more and more smart devices are penetrating the residential and commercial buildings market. The introduction of these smart devices is also helping IoT companies emerge with load aggregator roles in the sector. With more utility companies on the track of supporting OpenADR protocols, the aggregators could play a significant role in providing load flexibilities by automatically responding to demand response (DR) events and coordinating load flexibility measures between customers. This would benefit utility companies by reducing stress on the grid during critical peak demand hours as well as customers by allowing them to utilize utility rate structures advantageous to those able to reduce electric usage during high-demand hours. This study evaluates cost and energy savings from adopting multiple load flexibility measures in multifamily buildings. Combinations of different load flexibility measures, including space temperature floating, light dimming, automatic window shading, and water heater temperature floating, are considered. The simulations are performed using OpenStudio®, an open-source U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) simulation platform. For the case study, we used a midrise apartment building with weather conditions from Denver, Colorado. To compare climate zone differences, simulations were also performed for Los Angeles, California, and Chicago, Illinois. Initial results indicate that the application of automated load flexibility measures without careful consideration of dispatching strategies and DR program enrollments could significantly affect the savings. To get meaningful cost savings, aggregators need to encourage tenant awareness to curtail energy usage through occupant behavior in addition to dispatching automatic load flexibility measures. The outcomes from this study are believed to help load aggregators understand the risks and benefits of load flexibility opportunities.

building energy modeling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploring the future energy-mobility nexus: The transportation energy & mobility pathway options (TEMPO) model

Not Available

Muratori, Matteo↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) Model: Overview and Validation of V1.0 [Slides]

This presentation documents the approaches and methods used in the Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options™ (TEMPO) model to evaluate passenger and freight demand for transportation and mobility services, project vehicle ownership and technology adoption decisions, and determine transport mode choices to derive scenarios of future energy use and emissions. TEMPO is an all-inclusive transportation demand model that covers the entire United States, with an implicit spatial resolution and an hourly temporal resolution that allows for generating time-resolved energy use profiles to assess multisectoral integration aspects. Key features of the TEMPO model include the ability to perform endogenous out-of-sample forecasting to extrapolate recent emerging trends and analyze impacts of disruptive technological breakthroughs and behavioral changes. TEMPO employs an innovative representation of passenger mobility demand stemming from household-level decisions that determine vehicle adoption, ownership, and use based on sociodemographics (e.g., income, household composition), technology attributes (e.g., travel cost, time), geography (e.g., urban, suburban, rural) and population-specific multiday mobility and travel requirements. This representation enables a more forward-looking perspective on the use of new mobility options and the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, as well as a more accurate representation of their energy usage profiles than previous modeling approaches. A comparison with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook showcases the ability of TEMPO to accurately replicate widely accepted projections by representing the key elements of the entire transportation sector at the appropriate level of resolution. TEMPO is intended to generate future scenarios of technology adoption, energy use, and emissions in the transportation sector to compare alternatives, inform decision makers, and assess integration with energy infrastructure and supply systems at an appropriate spatiotemporal resolution.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗