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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution South American Wind Resource Data Downscaled with Generative Machine Learning Conditioned on Near-Surface Observations

High-resolution historical wind data was developed for the entirety of South America using the innovative Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r) machine learning framework. The publicly available Sup3rWind South America dataset represents a significant advancement in wind resource data generation, leveraging generative machine learning conditioned on near-surface observations from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) to efficiently and accurately downscale coarse reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). This approach produces fine-scale, spatially and temporally coherent wind and meteorological fields hundreds of times more computationally efficient than traditional numerical weather modeling methods, enabling access to high-fidelity wind information across both continental and offshore regions. Sup3rWind South America builds on the earlier Sup3rWind Ukraine dataset through improvements in model architecture and outputs conditioned on near-surface observation inputs. As with the Ukraine data release, this dataset includes wind speed, wind direction, temperature, relative humidity, and pressure at a horizontal resolution of ~2 km, representing a 15x spatial enhancement relative to the 31 km ERA5 grid. Wind speed and direction are provided at 5-minute resolution, a 12x temporal refinement compared to the hourly ERA5 data, while temperature, relative humidity, and pressure remain at hourly resolution. The data covers all years from 2005 to 2024. Before downscaling, ERA5 inputs were bias-corrected using long-term monthly means and a limited number of quality-controlled observations to align large-scale statistics with regional conditions. The resulting dataset is the first publicly available high-resolution timeseries wind record that provides full spatial coverage of South America. Model validation demonstrates strong agreement with observations across several statistical metrics, consistent with other state-of-the-art high-resolution wind resource datasets. The potential applications of Sup3rWind South America span renewable energy resource assessment, energy system modeling, and grid resilience analysis. The 20-year record and high spatial and temporal resolution support accurate estimation of long-term energy yield and the economic feasibility of potential wind development sites. Continuous coverage across both continental and offshore regions enables comprehensive site prospecting within exclusive economic zones. The 2 km, 5-minute resolution data provide the spatial and temporal variability required for power system simulation, operational planning, and regional risk assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A control-inspired approach for energy transition planning under uncertainty

As the global carbon footprint continues to grow, many countries are implementing carbon emission reduction policies which have incentivized the expansion of low-carbon and renewable technologies. However, the speed and scale of deployment falls short of that needed to meet climate goals. Energy system models serve as key tools for guiding investment decisions and helping policymakers evaluate the effects of various policies on the development of an energy system. This study focuses on the energy system of the United States and builds upon prior work by incorporating more geographic granularity to account for the trade of commodities and addresses transmission congestion through electricity price adjustments. Furthermore, real-world characteristics, such as delays in constructing new liquid fuel production and electricity generation facilities, are integrated using a sequential decision-making approach that better reflects how decisions can be updated as uncertainties unfold. Results demonstrate that stochastic programming combined with sequential decision-making produces energy transition pathways that are robust to multiple uncertain futures. Additionally, considering real-world characteristics significantly impacts the deployment of renewable technologies and the ability to meet carbon emission reduction goals while also reliably meeting demand. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty and real-world characteristics to avoid overly optimistic projections in energy system planning.

energy systems↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model Sensitivities of Biomass-Burning Aerosol Chemical Aging, Sulfate Formation, and Cloud Droplet Activation in the Southeastern Atlantic Using CESM and E3SM

Biomass-burning smoke drives large uncertainty in climate projections of the Earth's radiative balance. This is due to the chemical and physical evolution of smoke and its impact on clouds and radiation. Here we focus on the southeastern Atlantic region and its inflow of African biomass-burning smoke during August 2017. We evaluate smoke properties and processes in two coupled earth-system models, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). These are compared against in situ aircraft observations from two field campaigns, ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) and CLoud–Aerosol–Radiation Interaction and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017). Observations reveal an increase and subsequent decrease in smoke mean diameter, and a steady decrease in the mass ratio of organic aerosol (OA) to black carbon aerosol (BC) (OA:BC) over 4–12 days of aging, neither captured by the base models. Implementation of a photolytic loss scheme for secondary organic aerosol (SOA)—as a proxy for other heterogeneous volatilization chemistry—and a ∼1-day conversion for primary OA to SOA significantly improves the representation of this loss. In the boundary layer, both models show dimethyl sulfide driving a large increase in the sulfate aerosol mass fraction from the free troposphere, which is consistent with observations. Finally, models tend to underpredict cloud droplet number concentration partially due to weak modeled turbulent updraft strength, and model performance improves when the parameterized turbulent updraft strength is increased substantially. These results are expected to provide insights into future model development to reduce climate model uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST)

CATALYST proposes to perform foundational coordinated research in a team-oriented collaborative effort aimed at advancing a robust understanding of modes of Earth system variability and change using models, observations and process studies. The proposed research will address the DOE/BER mission by exploring the limits to predictability, identifying fundamental underlying mechanisms, quantifying interactions among modes of variability, and discovering tipping points in the Earth system to understand the current and future impacts of these phenomena on regional and global climate. Four fundamental gaps are identified in our knowledge of the Earth system: 1) What are the limits to predictability on various timescales? 2) What are the interactions among modes of Earth system variability? 3) How may modes of Earth system variability change in response to changes in external forcing, and what are the tipping points involved with those changes? 4) How are high impact events connected to modes of Earth system variability and how may they change in the future? Related to those gaps in our knowledge, we formulate four research objectives to address those gaps using a combination of Earth system models (ESMs) and machine learning (ML) methods. Research Objective 1 (RO1) addresses the first gap above and proposes to understand modes of variability and their limits of predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales using ESMs and ML. Research Objective 2 (RO2) addresses the second gap and proposes to use a hierarchy of models to understand relevant processes and feedbacks related to how modes of variability interact with each other. Research Objective 3 (RO3) is designed to study the third gap and proposes to examine the role of external forcings in changes of modes of Earth system variability and their interactions, and the likelihood and predictability of tipping points and irreversible changes. Research Objective 4 (RO4) will address the fourth gap and proposes to use high resolution ESMs, regionally refined models (RRMs), and ML methods to investigate the relationships between high impact events (e.g. flash droughts and precipitation extremes, atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surge/sea level rise), the synoptic systems that produce them, and their changes related to modes of Earth system variability. The research will involve the use of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), CMIP multi-model data sets, a hierarchy of simpler models, and numerous observational data sets. In the course of the proposed research, CATALYST will contribute to metrics and diagnostics that will be integrated in Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC), particularly with regards to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), high atmospheric pressure blocking, and new precipitation metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Comprehensive Comparison of Methods for Evaluating Dispatch of Long-Duration Energy Storage in Power Systems Models

Long-duration energy storage (LDES) could play a pivotal role in the transformation of electricity grids with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as solar and wind. However, the weather-dependent nature of VRE introduces challenges for grid balancing and stability, which LDES - along with short-duration energy storage (SDES) - can help address. However, modeling LDES in production cost models (PCMs) is particularly challenging due to the need for high temporal resolution over extended optimization windows while preserving chronology, which ensures the alignment of energy storage operations with VRE generation over multi-day periods. This report compares traditional dispatch methods with advanced LDES dispatch strategies, such as the extended horizon approach, across different PCM platforms and examines tradeoffs and scalability. The comparison reveals that the traditional 1-day optimization horizon within the PCM leads to inefficient utilization of LDES. In contrast, extending the optimization horizon as much as possible significantly reduces curtailment and improves storage dispatch, especially in renewable-dense systems. There is also promise in using state-of-charge or end volume targets set by an external model, however this requires an additional modeling set and generally increases computational burden. This paper presents a comparison of these various methods in a number of power systems, showing algorithms initially in small test systems and scaling up to large, country-wide simulations. Overall, the research presents the trade-offs of various computational methods and illustrates how LDES may play an essential role in power systems of the future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Energy-Efficient Computing with Computational Research to Accelerate Energy Technology

NREL's computational sciences center hosts the largest high performance computing (HPC) capabilities dedicated to energy research while functioning as a living laboratory for energy-efficient computing. NREL's HPC capabilities support the research needs of the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). In ten years of operation, HPC use in EERE-sponsored research has grown by a factor of 30, including work in electricity generation, energy efficiency, transportation, and energy system modeling. This paper analyzes this research portfolio, providing examples of individual use cases. The paper documents NREL's history of operating one of the world's most energy-efficient data centers while examining pathways to reduce economic and environmental impact beyond reduction of Power Usage Efficiency (PUE). This paper concludes by examining the unique opportunities created for accelerating improvements in data center efficiency created by combining an HPC system dedicated to energy research and a research program in energy-efficient computing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 1. Overview of the Atmospheric Component

This paper describes the atmospheric component of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3. Significant updates have been made to the atmospheric physics compared to earlier versions. Specifically, interactive gas chemistry has been implemented, along with improved representations of aerosols and dust emissions. A new stratiform cloud microphysics scheme more physically treats ice processes and aerosol‐cloud interactions. The deep convection parameterization has been largely improved with sophisticated microphysics for convective clouds, making model convection sensitive to large‐scale dynamics, and incorporating the dynamical and physical effects of organized mesoscale convection. Improvements in aerosol wet removal processes and parameter re‐tuning of key aerosol and cloud processes have improved model aerosol radiative forcing. The model's vertical resolution has increased from 72 to 80 layers with the extra eight layers added in the lower stratosphere to better simulate the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation. These improvements have enhanced E3SM's capability to couple aerosol, chemistry, and biogeochemistry and reduced some long‐standing biases in simulating tropical variability. Compared to its predecessors, the model shows a much stronger signal for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby‐gravity waves, and eastward inertia‐gravity waves. Aerosol radiative forcing has been considerably reduced and is now better aligned with community best estimates, leading to significantly improved skill in simulating historical temperature records. Its simulated mean‐state climate is largely comparable to E3SMv2, but with some notable degradation in shortwave cloud radiative effect, precipitable water, and surface wind stress, which will be addressed in future updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

L0 Data from the 2018 NGEE Arctic LiDAR and Imagery Unoccupied Aerial System Campaign at the Teller 27 Field Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Airborne remote sensing data collected from Los Alamos National Laboratory's (LANL) heavy-lift unoccupied aerial system (UAS) hexacopter platform operated by NGEE Arctic scientists from the EES-14 group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. These data were collected in July 2018 at a field site near mile marker 27 along the Teller road between Nome, Alaska and Teller, Alaska. A DJI Matrice 600 Pro Airframe and Routescene UAV LiDARSystem was used to collect LiDAR data along 12 flight paths, and DJI Phantom 4 Advanced was used to collect optical red/green/blue (RGB) imagery at regular intervals along 5 flight paths. This data package contains unprocessed data products (processing level 0) including flight paths, raw photos, and raw lidar data files (*.kml, *.jpg, and *.lpd formats). Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, and general flight conditions are also included (see Supplemental Files, *.rinex, and *.rtcm3 files). NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.- The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leadership and Community Engagement in Chile: Deploying Net-Zero Technologies and Solutions

The report presents the 2023 Net Zero World Chile program results from activities of the the four program workstreams: 1) energy-system wide modeling LEAP modeling and analysis results including accelerated Net Zero scenarios with aggressive energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and electrification across demand sector; 2) district energy chapter provides thermal district energy systems modeling results of the Recoleta-Independencia pilot project and comparative analysis of district energy systems' potential versus competing technologies in Chile; 3) just transition action steps for the creation of a sister city relationship between Tocopilla and a US counterpart city; and 4) power decarbonization capacity building activities focused on the selection and adoption of grid-enhancing technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics for activity sequences

Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models for activities that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-min resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov router learns the patterns of “which activity comes next.” Second, a semi-Markov hazard component explicitly models activity durations, capturing “how long” activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1978

SIMWEST - A simulation model for wind energy storage systems

This paper describes a comprehensive and efficient computer program for the modeling of wind energy systems with storage. The level of detail of SIMWEST (SImulation Model for Wind Energy STorage) is consistent with evaluating the economic feasibility as well as the general performance of wind energy systems with energy storage options. The software package consists of two basic programs and a library of system, environmental, and control components. The first program is a precompiler which allows the library components to be put together in building block form. The second program performs the technoeconomic system analysis with the required input/output, and the integration of system dynamics. An example of the application of the SIMWEST program to a current 100 kW wind energy storage system is given.

Edsinger, R. W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

IDAES-PSE Software Tools for Optimizing Energy Systems and Market Interactions

Modern power grids coordinate electricity production and consumption via multi-scale wholesale energy markets. Historically, levelized cost metrics were the de facto standard for techno-eco-nomic analyses of energy systems and comparison of technology options. However, these metrics neglect the complexity of energy infrastructure including the time-varying value of electricity. An emerging alternative is multi-period optimization, which considers the locational marginal price of electricity as input data (parameters). In this work, we present a general interface for multi-period optimization with time-varying energy prices to facilitate rapid analysis and comparison of potential energy systems models. The PriceTakerModel class is written in the IDAES-PSE platform and allows users to generate a multi-period, price-taker model instance, as well as automatically generate common operational constraints for their model, such as start-up and shutdown. We show this interface successfully generates multi-period price-taker models, facilitates model discrimination, and aids in analyzing various technologies for deployment in unique energy markets.

Laky, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Transactive Approach for Service Restoration Utilizing Customer Load Flexibility and Grid-Edge Resources

This paper develops a transactive energy system model to restore electricity to customers in an isolated distribution system after an outage. The model engages a variety of customer types -- prosumers, flexible loads, critical/noncritical customers, and distributed generators -- as active participants in the restoration process. Unlike many existing transactive approaches, the proposed model is developed for service restoration and accounts for various customer types and their autonomy and privacy through an iterative approach to determine the optimal market price, while maintaining system-level power flow and voltage constraints. The advantages of the proposed approach are numerically validated on a modified IEEE 123-bus test system.

distributed energy resources↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Transactive Approach for Service Restoration Utilizing Customer Load Flexibility and Grid-Edge Resources: Preprint

This paper develops a transactive energy system model to restore electricity to customers in an isolated distribution system after an outage. The model engages a variety of customer types -- prosumers, flexible loads, critical/noncritical customers, and distributed generators -- as active participants in the restoration process. Unlike many existing transactive approaches, the proposed model is developed for service restoration and accounts for various customer types and their \textit{autonomy} and \textit{privacy} through an iterative approach to determine the optimal market price, while maintaining system-level power flow and voltage constraints. The advantages of the proposed approach are numerically validated on a modified IEEE 123-bus test system.

distributed energy resources↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Transactive Approach for Service Restoration Utilizing Customer Load Flexibility and Grid-Edge Resources

This paper develops a transactive energy system model to restore electricity to customers in an isolated distribution system after an outage. The model is developed to engage a variety of customer types - prosumers, flexible loads, critical/noncritical customers, and distributed generators - as active participants in the restoration process. Unlike many existing transactive approaches, the proposed model is developed for service restoration and accounts for various customer types and their autonomy and privacy through an iterative approach to determine the optimal market price, while maintaining systemlevel power flow and voltage constraints. The advantages of the proposed approach are numerically validated on a modified IEEE 123-bus test system.

distributed energy resources↗
NASA NTRS1977

A simulation model for wind energy storage systems. Volume 1: Technical report

A comprehensive computer program for the modeling of wind energy and storage systems utilizing any combination of five types of storage (pumped hydro, battery, thermal, flywheel and pneumatic) was developed. The level of detail of Simulation Model for Wind Energy Storage (SIMWEST) is consistent with a role of evaluating the economic feasibility as well as the general performance of wind energy systems. The software package consists of two basic programs and a library of system, environmental, and load components. The first program is a precompiler which generates computer models (in FORTRAN) of complex wind source storage application systems, from user specifications using the respective library components. The second program provides the techno-economic system analysis with the respective I/O, the integration of systems dynamics, and the iteration for conveyance of variables. SIMWEST program, as described, runs on the UNIVAC 1100 series computers.

Warren, A. W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid Powered Command Trailers Cost-Benefit Analysis Tool: User Guide and Examples

U.S. Forest Service (USFS) wildfire base camps use portable power for electrical needs, including yurts and trailers from which logistics staff work during the incident. These yurts and trailers are conventionally powered by portable diesel generators. Hybrid portable power systems consisting of a combination of solar photovoltaics (PV), battery energy storage systems (BESS), and/or backup diesel generators have been used in recent years and were piloted by the National Technology and Development Program (NTDP) on incidents in fall 2024 as part of NTDP's Portable Power Project. As part of that project, this work included the development of two Excel-based tools and two reports explaining the tools. The first tool, the Incident Energy Systems Model, is an Excel-based tool that models the power output of hybrid portable power systems powering yurts and/or trailers at fire camps over a typical day. The associated report (published separately) outlines a user guide for the model and walks through two scenarios. The two scenarios are 1) trailers powered by rooftop solar PV, batteries, and a back-up diesel generator, and 2) trailers powered by ground mount solar PV, batteries, and a back-up diesel generator. The second tool is a high-level cost-benefit analysis of the same two types of portable power systems, and is location independent.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗