Territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands Energy Sector Risk Profile
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Raffety, Ashton↗
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Coupling of the Electricity and Transportation Sectors - Part II: Risk Assessment
This comprehensive report explores the intricate interplay through “sector coupling” between the Transportation Sector, Energy Sector, and the critical infrastructure challenges faced by the United States. Aligned with the ambitious federal goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the report analyzes the present vulnerabilities in the fossil fuel supply chain, highlighting instances where the dependence on this industry has been susceptible to local and global disruptions. With a focus on risk assessment, this report establishes a framework to compare the fossil fuel-based transportation sector with the burgeoning electrified sector, considering the evolving technologies in electric vehicles (EVs) and the nascent charging infrastructure. This study delves into the historical reliability of fossil fuel-based transportation and identifies opportunities for strengthening sector coupling between transportation and the electric sector. Assessments of the gasoline-diesel supply chain provide insights into both opportunities and threats, offering a roadmap for creating a more reliable and resilient electrified transportation system. We modeled sectoral coupling scenarios for the current internal combustion engine (ICE)-based and future EV-dominant landscapes, leveraging qualitative sector attributes to identify relative strengths and weaknesses in Part 1 of the report. In this report (Part 2) we continue to understand the role of the electricity sector on transportation and develop a semi-quantitative methodology is employed to evaluate and compare the risks associated with the fossil fueled and electric transportation sector during emergency scenarios, drawing from real-world events like hurricanes and geopolitical disruptions. Different operational scenarios for the fossil fuel and electrified sectors have been developed to understand the risks associated with them. This report concludes with recommendations for the architectural designs of electric charging infrastructure, underlining the need for informed decisions in the transition towards a sustainable and resilient transportation future.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Living-off-the-land Techniques Unlikely to Supplant Energy Sector-Focused OT-Specific Malware
Despite increased reports of energy sector-focused threat actors using living-off-the-land (LOTL) techniques, it is unlikely LOTL techniques will wholly supplant malware in energy sector operational technology (OT)-focused cyber operations. Threat actors leverage LOTL techniques to access energy sector networks, abstracting process information and maintaining persistence. Although threat actors using LOTL techniques have successfully interrupted energy sector industrial control environments, designed features of OT-specific malware likely increase the cyber-physical impact of an attack and delay recovery of critical functions and services. Malicious actors will very likely continue to use LOTL techniques for stealth, while designing malware to bolster final impacts on cyber-physical systems in energy sector OT environments.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
CEOS Contributions to Informing Energy Management and Policy Decision Making Using Space-Based Earth Observations
Earth observations are playing an increasingly significant role in informing decision making in the energy sector. In renewable energy applications, space-based observations now routinely augment sparse ground-based observations used as input for renewable energy resource assessment applications. As one of the nine Group on Earth Observations (GEO) societal benefit areas, the enhancement of management and policy decision making in the energy sector is receiving attention in activities conducted by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). CEOS has become the "space arm" for the implementation of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) vision. It is directly supporting the space-based, near-term tasks articulated in the GEO three-year work plan. This paper describes a coordinated program of demonstration projects conducted by CEOS member agencies and partners to utilize Earth observations to enhance energy management end-user decision support systems. I discuss the importance of engagement with stakeholders and understanding their decision support needs in successfully increasing the uptake of Earth observation products for societal benefit. Several case studies are presented, demonstrating the importance of providing data sets in formats and units familiar and immediately usable by decision makers. These projects show the utility of Earth observations to enhance renewable energy resource assessment in the developing world, forecast space-weather impacts on the power grid, and improve energy efficiency in the built environment.
Eckman, Richard S.↗
Cybersecurity and Digital Components: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment
The report “America’s Strategy to Secure the Supply Chain for a Robust Clean Energy Transition” lays out the challenges and opportunities faced by the United States in the energy supply chain as well as the federal government plans to address these challenges and opportunities. It is accompanied by several issue-specific deep dive assessments, including this one, in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the federal government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. As the energy sector has become more globalized and increasingly complex, digitized, and even virtualized, its supply chain risk for digital components – the software, virtual platforms and services, and data – in energy systems has evolved and expanded. All digital components in U.S. energy sector systems are vulnerable and may be subject to cyber supply cha in risks stemming from a variety of threats, vulnerabilities, and impacts. This includes digital components in all systems within the ESIB, namely those systems operated by asset owners across different energy subsectors (e.g., electricity, oil and natural gas, and renewables) and the systems operated by a worldwide industrial complex with capabilities to perform research and development and design, produce, operate, and maintain energy sector systems, subsystems, components, or parts to meet U.S. energy requirements. Supply chain risks for digital components including software, virtual platforms and services, and data have grown in recent years as increasingly sophisticated cyber adversaries have targeted exploiting vulnerabilities in these digital assets. Supply chain risks for digital components in energy sector systems will continue to evolve and likely increase as these systems are increasingly interconnected, digitized, and remotely operated.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
The zero-emissions cost of energy: a policy concept
The energy sector generates over 70% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but existing energy-climate policies do little to reduce GHG emissions to prevent climate change. We present a new carbon tax policy concept in which energy users would be taxed an amount equal to the cost of cleaning up the emissions that they create, wherein the tax revenues would be used to operate negative emissions technologies. The policy is based on applying the zero-emissions cost (ZEC) metric to energy prices, which includes the 'regular' cost of an energy source plus the cost of sequestering its emissions. Using the ZEC, (a) the energy sector would be emissions-neutral, (b) biofuels would be cheaper than petroleum fuels, and (c) renewable electricity would be cheaper than fossil-fuel electricity. We calculate the energy spending as a fraction of gross domestic product for 'regular' and ZEC cost scenarios. Implementing the ZEC carbon-tax policy would enable a monumental shift to a net-zero emissions energy sector, but carries a significant risk of causing an economic recession. The summary point of this commentary is to demonstrate a pathway to achieve net-zero GHG emissions from the US energy sector, and to contemplate the associated economic impacts on our society.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Integration of cryogenic energy storage with renewables and power plants: Optimal strategies and cost analysis
Energy storage is critical for overcoming challenges associated with the intermittency and the variable availability of renewable sources for decarbonizing the energy sector. Cryogenic energy storage (CES) is of interest due to its high technology readiness level, no geographical limitations, and moderate round-trip efficiency. The time-varying nature of demands and renewable availability needs to be considered at the design and integration stages of energy storage. We develop a mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP) model to obtain the energy storage costs on a daily basis for different scenarios that typically arise over an entire year. Using this optimization-based framework, we address key decision-making questions towards energy transition: What is the energy cost when CES is integrated with renewables and power plants? How does each scenario affect the overall energy cost? How much storage is needed for complete transition to renewables? What is the optimal integration towards 100% renewable energy? What are the optimal storage designs for both renewables and fossil-based power generation with current and future energy demands? Here, we discuss different scenarios and solutions to these questions.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Structural dynamics of the renewable energy economy: A longitudinal input-output insights for a resilient transition
As countries accelerate their energy transitions, understanding how renewable energy (RE) systems structurally integrate into national economies is essential. This study presents a longitudinal economic input-output (EIO) analysis of the renewable energy sector in South Korea from 2016 to 2022. We develop a novel EIO-based framework that disaggregates the RE sector both by energy source (thermal, hydro, nuclear and renewable) and by industrial function (manufacturing, generation, and services), allowing for a detailed assessment of production dynamics, value-added creation, and import dependency. By quantifying backward and forward linkages and induced economic effects, the analysis reveals persistent structural vulnerabilities in renewable manufacturing and increasing sectoral interdependencies. Results reveal that while the renewable energy sector's production and value-added shares have increased, critical segments remain highly import-dependent, particularly in equipment manufacturing. The analysis highlights systemic gaps in domestic supply chain resilience and offers sector-specific insights for reducing vulnerability and enhancing energy security. Although applied to South Korea as a case study, the proposed framework is designed to be transferable to other national contexts where renewable energy planning requires economic structural insights. The findings offer policy-relevant guidance for enhancing domestic energy resilience and aligning industrial strategy with long-term decarbonization goals.
Economic linkage↗
Quantum Communication Networks for Energy Applications: Review and Perspective
Abstract The energy sector is expected to undergo significant changes in the coming decades with the advent of new technologies, including smart grid development, microgrid expansion, increasing electric vehicle and renewable energy usage, and enhanced measures to minimize greenhouse gas emission, among others. In tandem, these changes are expected to create new opportunities for the deployment of quantum technologies within the energy sector. Building on the authors' previous reviews on the current state of and future opportunities for quantum sensing, quantum computing and quantum simulations for energy sector applications, this work provides an overview of recent progress in quantum networking and communications for the energy industry, with a focus on platforms, devices, and protocols, including quantum teleportation and quantum key distribution. Specific areas of relevance to the energy sector are then analyzed, including the role of quantum networks for greenhouse gas monitoring, secure data collection and transmission in smart grids, nuclear power plants’ safety, facilitating oil and gas exploration, and other energy‐relevant applications. This review concludes with a brief overview of areas for future innovation, including the need for platforms for simulating quantum networks, quantum material and platform design, and computational approaches to accelerate quantum protocol discovery and development.
Paudel, Hari P.↗
Scout Benchmark Scenarios for U.S. Building Energy and CO2 Emissions to 2050
Overview and Intended Use Cases: These scenarios establish a range of futures for U.S. buildings sector energy use and CO2 emissions to 2050 using Scout (scout.energy.gov), a reproducible and granular model of U.S. building energy use, emissions, and consumer costs developed by the U.S. national labs for the U.S. Department of Energy's Building Technologies Office (BTO). Scout benchmark scenario data are suitable for the following example use cases: setting high-level policy goals for the U.S. buildings sector to 2050 (e.g., X% building CO2 emissions reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2030, Y% reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2050); exploring the effects of key dynamics driving U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions to 2050 that could be affected by policy levers (e.g., raising minimum technology performance levels; accelerating electrification and/or retrofit rates; introducing breakthrough technologies to the market); determining priority segments (regions, building types, and end use/technology types) and sequencing of U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions reductions to 2050 under a given set of assumptions; and/or identifying the energy and emissions impacts or cost effectiveness of specific technologies or operational approaches of interest—in isolation or after considering competition with other measures in a scenario portfolio. Scenario Summary: A total of 8 scenarios explore the effects of changes across both the demand- and supply-side of building energy use on annual U.S. building energy use and CO2 emissions from 2022–2050. Scenarios are organized into three groups representing low, moderate, and best-case potentials for building decarbonization, respectively.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Adapting Existing Energy Models for Resilience Analysis
Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result of the growing interest in energy sector resilience, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate resilience indicators and metrics, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. A necessary focus of the research community lies in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing these challenges that need to be addressed, we explore how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes—including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences—based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches. To demonstrate the importance of perspective, we selected models that represent different segments of the energy sector, geographic scales, and modeling approaches. A second important aspect of our effort was the development of generalized power interruption scenarios. These scenarios were intended to help establish a framework for simulating the effects of real-world threats in terms of their impacts on system components and, in turn, power interruption.
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Emerging Technologies for Privacy Preservation in Energy Systems
This study explores the intersection of digitalization and privacy within the energy sector, focusing on the emerging challenges and opportunities presented by integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and advanced metering infrastructure. The need for robust digital privacy measures has become crucial as the energy industry evolves towards a more decentralized, digitalized, and decarbonized future. This study delves into four cutting-edge privacy-preserving technologies—Homomorphic Encryption (HE), Secure Multiparty Computation (SMPC), Differential Privacy (DP), and Federated Learning (FL)—each offering unique solutions to safeguard consumer data by increasing digital connectivity and data exchange. Through a detailed examination of these methods, the study explains how each technology operates, its applications within the energy sector, and the specific privacy challenges it addresses. Homomorphic Encryption allows for secure computations on encrypted data, enabling data analysis without compromising privacy. Secure Multiparty Computation enables collaborative data analysis across different entities while protecting the confidentiality of the inputs. Differential Privacy introduces randomness into the assembled data set, preventing the identification of individual records in statistical databases. Lastly, Federated Learning offers a paradigm shift in data analysis, where machine learning models are trained at the edge, minimizing the centralization of sensitive data. The research underscores the significance of implementing these privacy-enhancing technologies to comply with strict data protection regulations, foster consumer trust, and enhance the security of the energy infrastructure. By providing a comprehensive overview of these methodologies and their practical implications for the energy sector, this study aims to contribute to the ongoing discourse on digital privacy, offering insights into how the energy industry can navigate the complexities of data privacy in the digital age.
Cali, Umit↗
Enhancing the NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource Web Data Delivery System with Geographic Information System (GIS) Capabilities
Renewable energy technologies are changing the face of the world's energy market. Currently, these technologies are being incorporated within existing structures to increase energy efficiency. Crucial to the success of the emerging renewable market is the availability of accurate, global solar radiation, and meteorology data. This poster traces the history of the development of an effort to distribute data parameters from NASA's research for use in the energy sector applications spanning from renewable energy to energy efficiency. These data may be useful to several renewable energy sectors: solar and wind power generation, agricultural crop modeling, and sustainable buildings.
Chandler, William S.↗
Understanding the High Energy Higgs Sector with the CMS Experiment and Artificial Intelligence
This dissertation describes efforts towards understanding the Higgs boson at the highest energies humanly accessible, using the CMS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider and advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). We present searches for resonant and nonresonant Higgs-boson (H) pair production in the all-hadronic two beauty-quark and two vector boson (V) final state, using a novel strategy to measure the quartic HHVV coupling and search for new Higgs-like bosons. By targeting highly Lorentz-boosted Higgs pairs, we probe effects of potential new physics in the high energy Higgs sector, which could hold answers to fundamental mysteries of nature such as baryon asymmetry. To enable these and future searches, we introduce as well significant developments in AI/ML, including in the identification of boosted H$\rightarrow$VV decays with deep transformer networks and advances in AI-accelerated fast simulations of the CMS detector. The latter notably includes the development of the first, highly performant generative models for point-cloud data in high energy physics, which have the potential to improve CMS' computational efficiency by up to three orders of magnitude. We also highlight novel solutions to the important and challenging problems of calibrating and validating these ML techniques. Finally, we present new approaches to search for new physics in a model-agnostic manner, using physics-informed ML methods equivariant to Lorentz transformations. The quartic HHVV coupling is observed (expected) to be constrained to $[-0.04, 2.05]$ ($[0.05, 1.98]$) at the 95% confidence level relative to the standard model prediction, representing the second-most sensitive measurement of this coupling by CMS to date. Exclusion limits on the production cross section of new heavy resonances decaying to two Higgs-like bosons are expected to be as low as 0.3 fb for high resonance masses.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Achieving American Leadership in Cybersecurity and Digital Components Factsheet
The Biden Administration’s efforts to meet 100% clean electricity by 2035 and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 has created opportunities to rebuild American supply chains create new jobs, strengthen community engagement, and spur U.S. economic growth. DOE’s strategy for success in the transition to a clean energy economy hinges on building and maintaining technology supply chains that are advanced, secure, and resilient to cyber threats. As the energy sector grows increasingly globalized, complex, and digitized, the supply chain for digital components of energy systems – including software, virtual platforms and services, and data – is facing greater threats. Nearly all digital components of U.S. energy sector systems are vulnerable to cyber supply chain instability, stemming from a variety of causes and shared among a broad set of interdependent stakeholders. Overall, supply chain risks for digital components in energy sector systems will continue to evolve and likely increase as these systems are increasingly interconnected, digitized, and remotely operated.
CCE↗
Young Leaders Workforce Training Program Overview and Impact
To support the Government of Colombia's plans to transform its power sector, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has assembled a cross-organizational team to develop and deliver a comprehensive workforce training program for young energy sector leaders in Colombia designed to enhance the efficient integration of growing volumes of variable renewable energy (VRE) to the energy sector. The team - which includes USAID's Colombia Mission, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), USAID's Scaling Up Renewable Energy (SURE) program implemented by Tetra Tech, and the U.S. Energy Association (USEA) - collaboratively developed a series of seven capacity building modules designed to ready Colombia's energy sector workforce to participate in the construction, operation, and grid integration of VRE projects, such as wind and solar. This brochure highlights the program's objectives, results, and impacts to date.
Colombia↗
CyTRICS Impact-Based Prioritization Process
Cyber Testing for Resilient Industrial Control Systems™ (CyTRICS™) is the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) program for cybersecurity vulnerability testing, digital subcomponent enumeration, and forensic assessment. CyTRICS leverages best-in-class test facilities and analytic capabilities at six DOE National Laboratories and strategic partnerships with key stakeholders including technology developers, manufacturers, asset owners and operators, and interagency partners. During the program’s development, CyTRICS established a unique methodology for prioritizing digital components within operational technology (OT) and industrial control systems (ICS) in the Energy Sector Industrial Base (ESIB) for cyber vulnerability testing. The CyTRICS prioritization process leverages multiple characteristics of systems, components, and their contextual deployment to calculate a quantification of individual digital components for CyTRICS testing. The initial version of the CyTRICS prioritization process was premised largely upon the impact which could result to an energy sector industrial control system if the digital component under testing was compromised, either through malicious means, faulty engineering, or other modes. CyTRICS has termed this process the “CyTRICS Impact-based Prioritization Process.” This paper describes the factors identified for use in the Impact-based Prioritization process and identifies the rationale for inclusion. During development, three National Laboratories piloted this prioritization process and generated prioritization scores for seven systems. Following the piloting of the process, laboratory subject matter experts (SME) validated that the numerical scores generated by the prioritization process were consistent with their knowledge of the impact that may occur should any of these systems be disrupted. The following document explains how to perform the prioritization process to generate prioritization scores for energy sector systems. After outlining assumptions required to conduct the process, it describes how to identify and elicit data which can be leveraged to evaluate a system and assign numerical values for each factor. The prioritization process uses different weights on different factors; rationale for each weight is included within the paper. Additionally, the paper includes some recommendations for future enhancements to prioritization, including lessons learned from developing and piloting the process. Finally, a comprehensive appendix includes example documents to be leveraged by those looking to execute the prioritization process.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
CYVET: A Cyber-Physical Assurance Framework Based on a Semi-Supervised Vetting Approach
The project is designed to directly address the needs described in the Topic Area 4 (“Cybersecurity Verification and Validation”) of the CEDS’19 Research Call. The proposed CYVET system directly addresses the need to elevate the current industry capabilities to verify and validate OT cybersecurity and associated control system infrastructure. Currently, there is a significant gap in the energy sector’s capability in that regard during infrastructure improvement, equipment procurement, and compliance certification. CYVET provides that needed capability. CYVET is device and architecture agnostic and thus broadly applicable across the energy sector. The goal of this project is to develop and deliver a cybersecurity verification and validation framework testing capability to verify and validate OT equipment, software, and the underlying control system architecture. The primary project objectives are (i) Verification: the synthesis and reconciliation of standards and vendor supplied features, (ii) Validation: the generation, execution, and presentation of testing scripts of verified security features, and (3) Demonstration: apply the developed technology capabilities for verification and validation at a relevant end-user facility in the energy sector.
Lopez Jr, Juan↗