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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Physics vs structure: A systematic benchmark of learning strategies for multi-zone building thermal dynamics

Recent advances in physics-informed and data-driven machine learning promise improved thermal models for advanced building control, yet there is limited quantitative evidence on when added physics structure and architectural complexity are beneficial. Here, this work presents a systematic benchmark of five representative system identification methods for modeling multi-zone building thermal dynamics: linear state-space models, multi-layer perceptrons, neural state-space models, neural ordinary differential equations, and physically-consistent neural networks. The methods are evaluated across multiple data regimes and zone coupling strategies. Using a high-fidelity multi-zone commercial building emulator, we examine short-term and long-term prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of development. Our results reveal critical trade-offs between prediction performance, model complexity, and physical consistency. We demonstrate that decoupled, nonlinear black-box models consistently outperform coupled physics-constrained architectures in both predictive accuracy and out-of-distribution robustness in majority of the test cases for the building type considered in the study. Our findings quantify the cost of complexity in building thermal modeling and provide concrete, actionable, scenario-based guidelines for selecting model classes for control-oriented applications.

Building thermal modeling↗
NASA NTRS1983

MAST space research flight experiment

The MAST flight experiments comprise a research program focusing on major LSS issues for which it is deemed necessary to test, measure, and validate techniques and concepts in the space environment. The MAST Shuttle attached test articles are transported to space by the STEP experiment carrier and are compatible with STEP interfaces in all configurations. As the experiments require no particular orbit and the operational timeliness needed for mission performance are not extensive, it is forseen that the STEP/MAST combination could provide an attractive repetitive element within the Shuttle mixed cargo manifesting process. Using the STEP experiment carrier and a retractable reusable test article allows repetitive flight research to the extent that the STEP is able to be manifested on a regular basis. Since this research program examines generic phenomena, maximum emphasis is placed upon information quality and the fidelity with which the phenomena model emulates the LSS issue.

Allen, J. L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerating high-strain continuum-scale brittle fracture simulations with machine learning

Failure in brittle materials under dynamic loading conditions is a result of the propagation and coalescence of microcracks. Simulating this discrete crack evolution at the continuum level is computationally expensive or, in some cases, intractable, resulting in the need to make broad assumptions or neglect key physics. In this work, we have developed an approach using machine learning that overcomes the current inability to represent meso-scale physics at the macro-scale. Our approach leverages damage and stress data from a computationally expensive high-fidelity model that explicitly resolves microcrack behavior to build an inexpensive machine learning emulator. Once trained, the machine learning emulator is used to predict the evolution of crack length statistics, which then informs a continuum-scale constitutive model. This results in a significant speed-up of the workflow by four orders of magnitude. Both the machine learning emulator and the continuum-scale model are validated against the high-fidelity model and experimental data, respectively, showing excellent agreement. There are two key findings. The first is that we can reduce the dimensionality of the problem, establishing that the machine learning emulator only needs the length of the longest crack and one of the maximum stress components to capture the necessary physics. Another compelling finding is that the emulator can be trained in one experimental setting and transferred successfully to predict behavior in a different setting.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating accurate simulations of calorimeter showers with normalizing flows and probability density distillation

Recently, we introduced caloflow, a high-fidelity generative model for GEANT4 calorimeter shower emulation based on normalizing flows. Here, we present caloflow v2, an improvement on our original framework that speeds up shower generation by a further factor of 500 relative to the original. The improvement is based on a technique called probability density distillation, originally developed for speech synthesis in the machine learning literature, and which we develop further by introducing a set of powerful new loss terms. We demonstrate that caloflow v2 preserves the same high fidelity as the original using qualitative (average images, histograms of high-level features) and quantitative (classifier metric between geant4 and generated samples) measures. The result is a generative model for calorimeter showers that matches the state of the art in speed (a factor of 10 4 faster than GEANT4) and greatly surpasses the previous state of the art in fidelity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatio–Temporal Machine Learning for Regional to Continental Scale Terrestrial Hydrology

Integrated hydrologic models can simulate coupled surface and subsurface processes but are computationally expensive to run at high resolutions over large domains. Here we develop a novel deep learning model to emulate subsurface flows simulated by the integrated ParFlow–CLM model across the contiguous US. We compare convolutional neural networks like ResNet and UNet run autoregressively against our novel architecture called the Forced SpatioTemporal RNN (FSTR). The FSTR model incorporates separate encoding of initial conditions, static parameters, and meteorological forcings, which are fused in a recurrent loop to produce spatiotemporal predictions of groundwater. We evaluate the model architectures on their ability to reproduce 4D pressure heads, water table depths, and surface soil moisture over the contiguous US at 1 km resolution and daily time steps over the course of a full water year. The FSTR model shows superior performance to the baseline models, producing stable simulations that capture both seasonal and event–scale dynamics across a wide array of hydroclimatic regimes. The emulators provide over 1,000× speedup compared to the original physical model, which will enable new capabilities like uncertainty quantification and data assimilation for integrated hydrologic modeling that were not previously possible. Our results demonstrate the promise of using specialized deep learning architectures like FSTR for emulating complex process–based models without sacrificing fidelity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

SUNBIRD : a simulation-based model for full-shape density-split clustering

Combining galaxy clustering information from regions of different environmental densities can help break cosmological parameter degeneracies and access non-Gaussian information from the density field that is not readily captured by the standard two-point correlation function (2PCF) analyses. However, modelling these density-dependent statistics down to the non-linear regime has so far remained challenging. We present a simulation-based model that is able to capture the cosmological dependence of the full shape of the density-split clustering (DSC) statistics down to intra-halo scales. Our models are based on neural-network emulators that are trained on high-fidelity mock galaxy catalogues within an extended-ΛCDM framework, incorporating the effects of redshift-space, Alcock–Paczynski distortions, and models of the halo–galaxy connection. Our models reach sub-percent level accuracy down to $1 \, h^{-1}\text{Mpc}$ and are robust against different choices of galaxy–halo connection modelling. When combined with the galaxy 2PCF, DSC can tighten the constraints on ω cdm , σ 8 , and n s by factors of 2.9, 1.9, and 2.1, respectively, compared to a 2PCF-only analysis. DSC additionally puts strong constraints on environment-based assembly bias parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Flexible Reinforcement Learning Framework for Building Control using EnergyPlus-Modelica Energy Models

In recent years, reinforcement learning (RL) methods have been greatly enhanced by leveraging deep learning approaches. RL methods applied to building control have shown potential in many applications due to their ability to complement or replace conventional methods such as model-based or rule-based controls. However, RL-based building control software is likely tailored either to one target building system or to a specific RL method so that significant additional effort would be required to customize the RL-based controller for use in other building systems or with other RL approaches. Also, RL-based building controls usually depend on building energy simulations to train controllers, so emulating building dynamics (i.e., thermal dynamics and control dynamics) and capturing sub-hourly dynamic profiles are crucial to further the development of effective RL-based building control methods. To address these challenges, we present an open source RL-based control software employing a high-fidelity hybrid EnergyPlus-Modelica building energy model which emulates building dynamics at 1-minute resolution. This software consists of decoupled components (environment, building emulator, control agent, and RL algorithm), which allows for quick prototyping and benchmarking of standard RL algorithms in different systems; for example, a single component can be replaced without revising all of the software. To demonstrate this software framework, we conducted a benchmark study using an EnergyPlus-Modelica building energy model for a Chicago office building with an RL-based controller to dynamically control the chilled water temperature setpoint and the air handling unit supply air temperature setpoint on selected floors.

Lee, Joon-Yong↗
NASA NTRS2008

Next Generation Flight Controller Trainer System

The Next Generation Flight Controller Trainer (NGFCT) is a relatively inexpensive system of hardware and software that provides high-fidelity training for spaceshuttle flight controllers. NGFCT provides simulations into which are integrated the behaviors of emulated space-shuttle vehicle onboard general-purpose computers (GPCs), mission-control center (MCC) displays, and space-shuttle systems as represented by high-fidelity shuttle mission simulator (SMS) mathematical models. The emulated GPC computers enable the execution of onboard binary flight-specific software. The SMS models include representations of system malfunctions that can be easily invoked. The NGFCT software has a flexible design that enables independent updating of its GPC, SMS, and MCC components.

Arnold, Scott↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pushing the frontiers in climate modelling and analysis with machine learning

Climate modelling and analysis are facing new demands to enhance projections and climate information. Here, in this study, we argue that now is the time to push the frontiers of machine learning beyond state-of-the-art approaches, not only by developing machine-learning-based Earth system models with greater fidelity, but also by providing new capabilities through emulators for extreme event projections with large ensembles, enhanced detection and attribution methods for extreme events, and advanced climate model analysis and benchmarking. Utilizing this potential requires key machine learning challenges to be addressed, in particular generalization, uncertainty quantification, explainable artificial intelligence and causality. This interdisciplinary effort requires bringing together machine learning and climate scientists, while also leveraging the private sector, to accelerate progress towards actionable climate science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Celestial Navigation in Cislunar Space with autoNGC

Celestial navigation (CelNav) is a source of navigation observables where images of known solar system bodies are used to locate a spacecraft, beneficial within the solar system for both cislunar and deep space missions. CelNav provides a variety of design benefits to support and enable current and new autonomous space operations- using only a camera and a processor to produce in-situ measurements for navigation. This technology reduces subscription to ground-based tracking during all phases of a mission, freeing up resources for other operational needs. This also supports secure navigation since it eliminates the need for ground contact. CelNav enables missions where the light time delay between Earth and the spacecraft is too long (or the Earth to spacecraft line of sight is obscured) to support critical operations. It also enables smaller mission classes, where Deep Space Network (DSN)time is cost prohibitive, to reduce its cost by focusing primarily on data downlink. Finally, it enables the NASA Artemis program and other cislunar human space flight by providing redundant navigation to traditional radiometric tracking. In this presentation, we discuss the implementation of a CelNav app in autonomous Navigation, Guidance, and Control (autoNGC), a comprehensive flight software suite for onboard autonomy that is built on the core Flight System (cFS). The presentation also summarizes the results of flight software-in-the-loop (SIL) and processor-in-the-loop (PIL) demonstrations. Both are high-fidelity simulations with the use of a camera emulator hosted on a GPU server that simulates images that would be captured by the camera. The CelNav app leverages the use of cGIANT (cFS Goddard Image Analysis and Navigation Tool).Previously developed for the autoNGC software suite, cGIANT is an onboard autonomous image processing and optical navigation (OpNav) tool that performs limb-based OpNav and Terrain Relative Navigation. The added CelNav capability of cGIANT generates bearing measurements to multiple known celestial bodies (planets, moons, asteroids, comets, etc.) in monocular (2D) images. These observables are then fed to the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System (GEONS)navigation filter app, enabling us to navigate the spacecraft autonomously. In early 2025, the autoNGC CelNav capability is planned to be flight tested as part of the onboard autonomy experiment on the Cislunar Autonomous Positioning System Technology Operations and Navigation Experiment(CAPSTONE) spacecraft that is currently in a Lunar Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit(NRHO).

celestial navigation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Greedy emulators for nuclear two-body scattering

Applications of reduced basis method emulators are increasing in low-energy nuclear physics because they enable fast and accurate sampling of high-fidelity calculations, enabling robust uncertainty quantification. Here, in this paper, we develop, implement, and test two model-driven emulators based on the (Petrov-)Galerkin projection using the prototypical test case of two-body scattering with the Minnesota potential and a more realistic local chiral potential. The high-fidelity scattering equations are solved with the matrix Numerov method, a reformulation of the popular Numerov recurrence relation for solving special second-order differential equations as a linear system of coupled equations. A novel error estimator based on reduced-space residuals is applied to an active learning approach (a greedy algorithm) to choosing training samples (“snapshots”) for the emulator and contrasted with a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) approach. Both approaches allow for computationally efficient offline-online decompositions, but the greedy approach requires many fewer snapshot calculations. These developments set the groundwork for emulating scattering observables based on chiral nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon interactions and optical models, where computational speed-ups are necessary for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. Our emulators and error estimators are widely applicable to linear systems.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of DESI fiber assignment incompleteness effect on 2-point clustering and mitigation methods for DR1 analysis

We present an in-depth analysis of the fiber assignment incompleteness in the Dark EnergySpectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1). This incompleteness is caused by therestricted mobility of the robotic fiber positioner in the DESI focal plane, which limits thenumber of galaxies that can be observed at the same time, especially at small angular separations.As a result, the observed clustering amplitude is suppressed in a scale-dependent manner, which,if not addressed, can severely impact the inference of cosmological parameters. We discuss themethods adopted for simulating fiber assignment on mocks and data. In particular, we introducethe fast fiber assignment (FFA) emulator, which was employed to obtain the power spectrumcovariance adopted for the DR1 full-shape analysis. We present the mitigation techniques,organised in two classes: measurement stage and model stage. We then use high fidelity mocks as areference to quantify both the accuracy of the FFA emulator and the effectiveness of the differentmeasurement-stage mitigation techniques. This complements the studies conducted in a parallelpaper for the model-stage techniques, namely the θ-cut approach. We find that pairwiseinverse probability (PIP) weights with angular upweighting recover the “true” clustering in allthe cases considered, in both Fourier and configuration space. Notably, we present the first everpower spectrum measurement with PIP weights from real data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

ROSE: A reduced-order scattering emulator for optical models

A new generation of phenomenological optical potentials requires robust calibration and uncertainty quantification, motivating the use of Bayesian statistical methods. These Bayesian methods usually require calculating observables for thousands or even millions of parameter sets, making fast and accurate emulators highly desirable or even essential. Emulating scattering across different energies or with interactions such as optical potentials is challenging because of the nonaffine parameter dependence, meaning the parameters do not all factorize from individual operators. Here we introduce and demonstrate the reduced-order scattering emulator ( ROSE ) framework, a reduced basis emulator that can handle nonaffine problems. ROSE is fully extensible and works within the publicly available band framework software suite for calibration, model mixing, and experimental design. As a demonstration problem, we use ROSE to calibrate a realistic nucleon-target scattering model through the calculation of elastic cross sections. This problem shows the practical value of the ROSE framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification with controlled trade-offs between emulator speed and accuracy as compared to high-fidelity solvers. Finally, planned extensions of ROSE are discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fission with Exotic Nuclei (Full Technical Report)

Despite its importance for stockpile stewardship or nuclear forensics, data on fission is fragmentary: most experiments have only been performed on stable actinide nuclei and are often incomplete, and theoretical simulations often contain many parameters hard to constrain, which results in large uncertainties. Consequently, nuclear libraries have large gaps for important isotopes. The goal of this project was to prepare to take advantage of the unprecedented yields of radioactive isotopes at the upcoming DOE Facility for Rare Ion Beams and to leverage recent progress in the field of machine learning to develop a comprehensive program of fission studies that could address some of the most pressing problems in nuclear fission over the next several decades. Our project leveraged synergies between experimental nuclear physics, nuclear theory, and data science expertise at LLNL. On the experimental front, our main objective was to develop in-house expertise for inverse kinematics reactions with relativistic beams as well as to field and test new detectors to perform correlated measurements of fission properties. On the theoretical side, the objective was to develop a novel, high-fidelity and scalable approach of fissionfragment calculations based on emulating computationally expensive, quantum-mechanical calculations of nuclear properties with deep neural networks.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reconfigurable Real-Time Power Grid Emulator for Systems With High Penetration of Renewables

Novel power system control and new utility devices need to be tested before their actual deployment to the power grid. To assist with such a testing need, real-time digital emulators such as RTDS and Opal-RT can be used to connect to the physical world and form a hardware in the loop (HIL) emulation. However, due to the limitations of today's computational resources, the accuracy and fidelity suffer from different levels of model reductions in purely digital simulations. CURENT has developed a reconfigurable electric grid hardware testbed (HTB) to overcome the limitations of digital emulators. The HTB has been used to develop measurement, control, modeling, and actuation techniques for a national grid with a high penetration of renewables. The power electronic-based system includes emulators for synchronous generators; photovoltaics with grid-interfacing inverter; wind turbines; induction motor loads, ZIP loads, power electronic loads; batteries; ac and dc transmission lines; short circuit faults and grid relay protection; and a multiterminal HVDC overlay including power electronics interfaces. The system contains real elements of power flow, measurement, communication, protection, and control that mimic what would be seen in an actual electric grid. This paper presents an overview of the HTB and several scenarios that have been run to determine control and actions needed for the future power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of DESI fiber assignment incompleteness effect on 2-point clustering and mitigation methods for DR1 analysis

We present an in-depth analysis of the fiber assignment incompleteness in the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1). This incompleteness is caused by the restricted mobility of the robotic fiber positioner in the DESI focal plane, which limits the number of galaxies that can be observed at the same time, especially at small angular separations. As a result, the observed clustering amplitude is suppressed in a scale-dependent manner, which, if not addressed, can severely impact the inference of cosmological parameters. We discuss the methods adopted for simulating fiber assignment on mocks and data. In particular, we introduce the fast fiber assignment (FFA) emulator, which was employed to obtain the power spectrum covariance adopted for the DR1 full-shape analysis. We present the mitigation techniques, organised in two classes: measurement stage and model stage. We then use high fidelity mocks as a reference to quantify both the accuracy of the FFA emulator and the effectiveness of the different measurement-stage mitigation techniques. This complements the studies conducted in a parallel paper for the model-stage techniques, namely the θ-cut approach. We find that pairwise inverse probability (PIP) weights with angular upweighting recover the “true” clustering in all the cases considered, in both Fourier and configuration space. Notably, we present the first ever power spectrum measurement with PIP weights from real data.

cosmological simulations↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mesoscale informed parameter estimation through machine learning: A case-study in fracture modeling

Scale bridging is a critical need in computational sciences, where the modeling community has developed accurate physics models from first principles, of processes at lower length and time scales that influence the behavior at the higher scales of interest. However, it is not computationally feasible to incorporate all of the lower length scale physics directly into upscaled models. This is an area where machine learning has shown promise in building emulators of the lower length scale models, which incur a mere fraction of the computational cost of the original higher fidelity models. We demonstrate the use of machine learning using an example in materials science estimating continuum scale parameters by emulating, with uncertainties, complicated mesoscale physics. Additionally, we describe a new framework to emulate the fine scale physics, especially in the presence of microstructures, using machine learning, and showcase its usefulness by providing an example from modeling fracture propagation. Our approach can be thought of as a data-driven dimension reduction technique that yields probabilistic emulators. Our results show well-calibrated predictions for the quantities of interests in a low-strain simulation of fracture propagation at the mesoscale level. Furthermore, on average, we achieve ~10% relative errors on time-varying quantities like total damage and maximum stresses. Successfully replicating mesoscale scale physics within the continuum models is a crucial step towards predictive capability in multi-scale problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗