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FNAS/solar flare energetics

We have performed an extensive study of solar flare energy buildup and release, concentrating in two aspects: (1) relationship with 3D field topology and measured electric currents; and (2) flare onset characteristics as determined from combined x ray and ultraviolet observations. We extended our previous studies on the characteristic topology of flaring regions, by following the evolution of an active region over three consecutive days. From comparison with flare observations in x rays and h alpha, we found further support for the hypothesis that flares were triggered by taking place at the separators (3D generalization of and x-type neutral point). Furthermore, we found that emerging in flux at a site within the active regions where no (or little) activity was previously observed, caused the appearance of a secondary separator and thereon continuous triggering of activity at such site. Our topology arguments were then applied to a study of sympathetic activity between two regions within an active complex. Here again we found that interacting field structures along separators and separatrices, which act as pathways for recurrent flaring to spread between the regions, could be used to understand how activity spread to potentially explosive sites with the complex. We also finished our study of flare onset characteristics as determined from combined x ray and ultraviolet observations. Using a quasi-static modeling approach, we find that this phase is characterized by a relatively low level of energy release, 10 exp 26-27 erg/s, which is sufficient to produce 'gentle' evaporation, a shift in the location of the transition zone as compared to pre-flare conditions, and an increase in the temperature and density of coronal loops. All these changes have profound implications on the observed signatures of impulsive phase phenomena, which had been neglected in the past. As a follow-up of this investigation, we now plan to apply our results to the interpretation of high-sensitivity spectroscopic and hard x-ray data currently being gathered by the Yohkoh and Compton Gamma Ray Observatory satellites.

Machado, M. E.↗

FRMAC Laboratory Analysis Manual Volume 1, Revision 0

The Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center (FRMAC) is an operational center, available on request by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to respond to nuclear and radiological incidents as described in the National Response Framework (NRF). Under the Federal Interagency Operational Plan for Response and Recovery’s Nuclear/Radiological Annex, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has the responsibility to maintain the operational readiness of the FRMAC during the emergency phase of an event. FRMAC is initially established and managed by the Nuclear Emergency Support Team (NEST) and serves as an interagency operations center with representatives from various federal, state, and local radiological response organizations. The purpose of the FRMAC is to assist state, local, tribal, and territorial governments (SLTT) in their mission to protect the health and well-being of their citizens with: • Verified radiation measurements. • Interpretations of radiation distributions based on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or local Protective Action Guidelines (PAGs). • Characterization of overall radiological conditions. Once a declaration to respond to a radiological emergency has been made, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Headquarters will coordinate the response in consultation with the cognizant NNSA Regional Coordinating Office (RCO). Each of the eight RCOs maintain a 24-hour response capability for radiological emergencies that may occur in states served by its region. When a FRMAC is established, it operates under the parameters of the Incident Command System (ICS), as defined in the National Incident Management Systems (NIMS) construct. The Consequence Management Home Team (CMHT) will be activated immediately during normal business hours (Pacific Time Zone), and within two hours otherwise. The Consequence Management Response Team (CMRT) is prepared for deployment within six hours after activation. Along with the assets, FRMAC provides an operational framework for coordinating of all federal off-site radiological monitoring and assessment activities during a response to a radiological emergency to support the coordinating agency and SLTT governments. Potential radiological emergencies that fall within FRMAC vary widely in terms of the area affected, the nature of the contamination, and the scope of the government’s response. Detonation of a nuclear device, accidental release of radiation from a nuclear power plant, and a terrorist threat are just a few of the many possible scenarios FRMAC must be prepared to address. Through all this, supporting the state, local, and tribal organizations in the protection of the public remains the primary goal of the federal response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A HIRF-Map Certification Approach for UAM, AAM, and UAS Vehicles

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), Urban Air Mobility (UAM), and Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) vehicles will fly in airspace similar to Transport Category Rotorcraft, requiring them to meet stringent requirements for High-Intensity Radiated Fields (HIRF) certification. The environment is notably severe, particularly compared to fixed-wing aircraft, due to operations at lower altitudes. This potentially exposes the vehicles to high-power transmitters on the ground, leading to significant challenges. High-level HIRF exposure can result in avionic system upsets, interference, and undesirable effects. Shielding and circuit protection against HIRF pose significant barriers concerning size, weight, and cost, especially for emerging electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) and electric short take-off and landing (eSTOL) vehicles. This paper proposes a novel HIRF protection approach, aiming to reduce costs by certifying vehicles to a "vehicle tolerance level" lower than that required for Transport Category Rotorcraft. The remaining protection is achieved by maintaining a safe distance from known HIRF sources. This distance is calculated based on the vehicle's tolerance level and transmitter characteristics, such as transmit power, antenna beamwidth, and direction. Tailored flight maps are developed to identify transmitters and avoidance zones within an operating area or along a flight path, enabling restricted vehicle operations. Vehicles with higher tolerance levels could have smaller HIRF avoidance zones, allowing them to operate closer to transmitters. Transmitter data are sourced from government databases, such as those of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A map tool is developed using Matlab to calculate and visualize HIRF avoidance zones based on available databases. The tool determines stand-off distances based on input vehicle tolerance levels, displaying results on various base maps depicting HIRF-restricted areas. Illustrations cover various FCC transmitters, including AM/FM/TV transmitters, satellite earth stations, and NOAA weather radars. The HIRF zones of smaller transmitters, such as land-mobile radios, pagers, microwave links, and cellular towers, are also illustrated. An example of flight planning around transmitters is provided. For now, airports and government-owned lands are excluded due to limited access to sensitive transmitter data. Despite this approach, a minimum HIRF tolerance level for vehicles may still be necessary to cover mobile devices, cellular base stations, transmitters on other AAM vehicles, and other small power devices not included in the FCC databases. The paper discusses findings and areas for improving existing databases and suggests an approach for better access to sanitized data in more restricted government databases. This method significantly deviates from the standard approach and introduces slightly higher flight-planning complexity. However, the potential cost savings are considerable. Future AAM/UAM/UAS aeronautical charts could potentially incorporate these new HIRF avoidance zones. Keywords—HIRF; Map; AAM; UAM; UAS; Advanced Air Mobility; Urban Air Mobility; Unmanned Aerial Systems; Certification.

HIRF↗

The Evolution of Friction Stir Welding Theory at Marshall Space Flight Center

From 1995 to the present the friction stir welding (FSW) process has been under study at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). This is an account of the progressive emergence of a set of conceptual tools beginning with the discovery of the shear surface, wiping metal transfer, and the invention of a kinematic model and making possible a treatment of both metallurgical structure formation and process dynamics in friction stir welding from a unified point of view. It is generally observed that the bulk of the deformation of weld metal around the FSW pin takes place in a very narrow, almost discontinuous zone with high deformation rates characteristic of metal cutting. By 1999 it was realized that this zone could be treated as a shear surface like that in simple metal cutting models. At the shear surface the seam is drawn out and compressed and pressure and flow conditions determine whether or not a sound weld is produced. The discovery of the shear surface was followed by the synthesis of a simple 3- flow kinematic model of the FSW process. Relative to the tool the flow components are: (1) an approaching translational flow at weld speed V, (2) a rotating cylindrical plug flow with the angular velocity of the tool , and (3) a relatively slow ring vortex flow (like a smoke ring) encircling the tool and driven by shoulder scrolls and pin threads. The rotating plug flow picks up an element of weld metal, rotates it around with the tool, and deposits it behind the tool ( wiping metal transfer ); it forms plan section loops in tracers cut through by the tool. Radially inward flow from the ring vortex component retains metal longer in the rotating plug and outward flow expels metal earlier; this interaction forms the looping weld seam trace and the tongue and groove bimetallic weld contour. The radial components of the translational and ring vortex flows introduce parent metal intrusions into the small grained nugget material close to the tool shoulder; if this feature is pronounced, nugget collapse may result. Certain weld features, in particular internal banding seen in transverse section as onion rings and associated surface ridges called tool marks , have long implied an oscillation flow component, but have only recently been attributed in the literature to tool eccentricity. Rotating plug shape, typically a hollow cylinder flared at the end where it sticks to the shoulder, varies as pressure distribution on the tool determines where sticking occurs. Simplified power input estimates balanced against heat loss estimates give reasonable temperature estimates, explain why the power requirement changes hardly at all over a wide range of RPM s, and yield isotherms that seem to fall along boundaries of parameter windows of operation.

Nunes, Arthur C.↗

Field Laboratory for Emerging Stacked Unconventional Plays in Central Appalachia

The goal of the Field Laboratory for Emerging Stacked Unconventional Plays (ESUP) in Central Appalachia project was to investigate and characterize the resource potential for multi-play production of emerging unconventional reservoirs in Central Appalachia. Project activities included drilling, logging and coring of a vertical characterization well drilled to basement to approximately 15,000 feet in depth. The data from drilling and well logs as well recovered core samples were used by the research team to support characterization of the geology and potential pay zones within the Nora Gas Field of southwestern Virginia and the greater Central Appalachian Basin. This project was led by Dr. Nino Ripepi of the Virginia Center for Coal and Energy Research (VCCER) in close collaboration with EnerVest Operating LLC (EnerVest). VCCER is housed in the Department of Mining and Minerals Engineering at Virginia Tech and was created by an Act of the Virginia General Assembly on March 30, 1977, as an interdisciplinary study, research, information, and resource facility for the Commonwealth of Virginia. EnerVest is a top tier, low-cost oil and natural gas company with a long history of traditional operating relationships with institutional investors as well as public and private companies. This report summarizes two major research activities: 1) Log and Core Analysis and 2) Numerical Modeling. Core analysis comprises the characterization efforts of the ESUP Field Laboratory and includes a discussion of the well logs run in the deep characterization wells, an initial analysis of those, the number, size and location of cores recovered, core testing and analysis done to date as well as plans for future analysis. Numerical modeling is comprised of seven major modeling efforts, including (1) Multiphysics shale transport modeling work, (2) the developed in-house compositional simulator studies, (3) reservoir modeling studies using GEM software, (4) fracture modeling work using EFRAC3D software and (5) numerical modeling efforts with ABAQUS software, (6) Numerical modeling efforts using FLAC3D and PFC3D, and (7) Automatic Machine Learning (AutoML) Studies.

02 PETROLEUM↗

In Situ Observations and Sampling of Volcanic Emissions with Unmanned Aircraft: A NASA/UCR Case Study at Turrialba Volcano, Costa Rica

Burgeoning new technology in the design and development of robotic aircraft-unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)-presents unprecedented opportunities for the volcanology community to observe, measure, and sample eruption plumes and drifting volcanic clouds in situ. While manned aircraft can sample dilute parts of such emissions, demonstrated hazards to air breathing, and most particularly turbine, engines preclude penetration of the zones of highest ash concentrations. Such areas within plumes are often of highest interest with respect to boundary conditions of applicable mass-loading retrieval models, as well as Lagrangian, Eulerian, and hybrid transport models used by hazard responders to predict plume trajectories, particularly in the context of airborne hazards. Before the 2010 Ejyafyallajokull eruption in Iceland, ICAO zero-ash-tolerance rules were typically followed, particularly for relatively uncrowded Pacific Rim airspace, and over North and South America, where often diversion of aircraft around ash plumes and clouds was practical. The 2010 eruption in Iceland radically changed the paradigm, in that critical airspace over continental Europe and the United Kingdom were summarily shut by local civil aviation authorities and EURO CONTROL. A strong desire emerged for better real-time knowledge of ash cloud characteristics, particularly ash concentrations, and especially for validation of orbital multispectral imaging. UAV platforms appear to provide a viable adjunct, if not a primary source, of such in situ data for volcanic plumes and drifting volcanic clouds from explosive eruptions, with prompt and comprehensive application to aviation safety and to the basic science of volcanology. Current work is underway in Costa Rica at Turrialba volcano by the authors, with the goal of developing and testing new small, economical UAV platforms, with miniaturized instrument payloads, within a volcanic plume. We are underway with bi-monthly deployments of tethered SO2-sondes and are in the planning stages for the deployment of the SIERRA UAV to our site in March 2013. We will be conducting in situ observations simultaneously with ASTER orbital multispectral TIR data acquisitions, in order to compare in situ measurements with estimates of SO2 mass loading and dispersion derived from ASTER data. Though small UAVs are now being considered for use in active volcanic areas for in situ sampling of emissions (e.g., efforts by our group, and by our colleagues at the INGV in Italy and the Applied Science University in Dusseldorf, Germany, and others in the United Kingdom and Iceland), and also for remote sensing, much more needs to be done in the way of instrument development, and in developing small UAVs for both low altitude (tropospheric) and high altitude (stratospheric) applications. In particular, the development of all weather and day/night operational flight capabilities in close proximity to hazardous topography is crucial to a truly responsive volcano in situ measurement system. Finally, it is imperative that national civil aviation authorities recognize the unique benefits of such platforms. It is important that authorities understand that severely restricting or not deploying such tools in airspace over restless volcanoes or within eruption plumes, ostensibly because of the perceived (small) risk that such unmanned aircraft pose to manned air operations, itself poses a bigger transcendental risk to proximal populations and particularly to the aviation community, itself.

Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs)↗

Satellite Sensor Requirements for Monitoring Essential Biodiversity Variables of Coastal Ecosystems

The biodiversity and high productivity of coastal terrestrial and aquatic habitats are the foundation for important benefits to human societies around the world. These globally distributed habitats need frequent and broad systematic assessments, but field surveys only cover a small fraction of these areas. Satellite-based sensors can repeatedly record the visible and near-infrared reflectance spectra that contain the absorption, scattering, and fluorescence signatures of functional phytoplankton groups, colored dissolved matter, and particulate matter near the surface ocean, and of biologically structured habitats (floating and emergent vegetation, benthic habitats like coral, seagrass, and algae). These measures can be incorporated into Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs), including the distribution, abundance, and traits of groups of species populations, and used to evaluate habitat fragmentation. However, current and planned satellites are not designed to observe the EBVs that change rapidly with extreme tides, salinity, temperatures, storms, pollution, or physical habitat destruction over scales relevant to human activity. Making these observations requires a new generation of satellite sensors able to sample with these combined characteristics: (1) spatial resolution on the order of 30 to 100-m pixels or smaller; (2) spectral resolution on the order of 5 nm in the visible and 10 nm in the short-wave infrared spectrum (or at least two or more bands at 1,030, 1,240, 1,630, 2,125, and/or 2,260 nm) for atmospheric correction and aquatic and vegetation assessments; (3) radiometric quality with signal to noise ratios (SNR) above 800 (relative to signal levels typical of the open ocean), 14-bit digitization, absolute radiometric calibration less than 2%, relative calibration of 0.2%, polarization sensitivity less than 1%, high radiometric stability and linearity, and operations designed to minimize sunglint; and (4) temporal resolution of hours to days. We refer to these combined specifications as H4 imaging. Enabling H4 imaging is vital for the conservation and management of global biodiversity and ecosystem services, including food provisioning and water security. An agile satellite in a 3-d repeat low-Earth orbit could sample 30-km swath images of several hundred coastal habitats daily. Nine H4 satellites would provide weekly coverage of global coastal zones. Such satellite constellations are now feasible and are used in various applications.

aquatic↗

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Mars Surface System Common Capabilities and Challenges for Human Missions

NASA has begun a process to identify and evaluate candidate locations where humans could land, live and work on the martian surface. These locations are referred to as Exploration Zones (EZs). Given current mission concepts, an EZ is a collection of Regions of Interest (ROIs) that are located within approximately 100 kilometers of a centralized landing site. ROIs are areas that are relevant for scientific investigation and/or development/maturation of capabilities and resources necessary for a sustainable human presence. The EZ also contains a landing site and a habitation site that will be used by multiple human crews during missions to explore and utilize the ROIs within the EZ. In parallel with this process, NASA continues to make progress on the Evolvable Mars Campaign examining alternatives that can pioneer an extended human presence on Mars that is Earth independent. This involves ongoing assessments of surface systems and operations to enable a permanent, sustainable human presence. Because of the difficulty in getting equipment and supplies to the surface of Mars, part of these assessments involve identifying those systems and processes that can perform in multiple, sometimes completely unrelated, situations. These assessments have been performed in a very generic surface mission carried out at a very generic surface location. As specific candidate EZs are identified it becomes important to evaluate the current suite of surface systems and operations as they are likely to perform for the specific locations and for the types of operations - both scientific and development - that are proposed for these EZs. It is also important to evaluate the proposed EZs for their suitability to be explored or developed given the range of capabilities and constraints for the types of surface systems and operations being considered within the EMC. This means looking at setting up and operating a field station at a central location within the EZ as well as traversing to and exploring the scientific ROIs within the boundaries of the EZ. The proposed paper will describe the current status of common systems and operations as they can be applied to actual EZ locations on Mars. Initially these EZs will be the four locations identified MEPAG's Human Exploration of Mars Science Analysis Group (HEM‐SAG) that will be used as representative of the EZs that will emerge from the process that NASA has initiated. An example process that could be commonly applied is an approach for developing a field station site plan that would be demonstrated by applying this process to each of the four HEM‐SAG sites. Examples of common systems include (a) mobility systems that can be used to off‐load and move payloads to specific locations at the central field station location that could also be used to traverse long distances to reach some of the more remote ROIs or (b) robotic systems that can support various activities (such as system set up and maintenance) at the field station that could also be used to explore scientific ROIs and used to support site‐specific ISRU production activities.

Hoffman, Stephen J.↗

Contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons in strategic deterrence and competition: A SOCOM perspective. Part of Section: United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) in Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands

Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine demonstrates the challenge for strategic deterrence and competition of countering contentious narratives and disinformation about weapons of mass destruction (WMD) during conventional regional wars against a nucleararmed adversary. Moscow uses both tailored, contentious narratives and targeted disinformation about WMD in Ukraine to influence and disrupt local and global perceptions in support of its deterrence and competition objectives vis-à-vis the United States and NATO. Since December 2021, Moscow has made a focal point of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons in its efforts to establish a permissive environment for its military buildup on the border with Ukraine and then its military intervention. These information tactics also demonstrate an opportunity for US Special Operations Forces (SOF). They are a case study for considering how SOF can contribute to strategic deterrence and competition objectives, specifically countering adversary gray-zone information efforts to alter regional security orders.1 Such a role is in line with the 2022 Special Operations Forces Vision and Strategy, which provides a framework for the evolution of SOF into “a force capable of creating strategic, asymmetric advantages for the nation as a key contributor of integrated deterrence” (United States Special Operations Command, 2022). This paper briefly examines this strategic challenge and SOF opportunity, focusing narrowly on the distinction between contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons and the role of SOF in countering these gray-zone information tactics. The nuclear dimension of Moscow’s contentious narratives and disinformation in the “special military operation” is of particular interest because it demonstrates the distinction between strategic efforts to influence and disrupt local and global perceptions in Moscow’s favor. This distinction between influence and disruption is less clear with Russia’s contentious narratives and disinformation about chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine, as disinformation about these two types of WMD appears to overwhelm contentious narratives. We believe this distinction is useful for policymakers and warfighters responsible for countering gray-zone information tactics because it provides a framework for crafting tailored responses to contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons and other WMD. The chapter concludes with a discussion of efforts that could be undertaken by SOF in cooperation with other relevant stakeholders to address this aspect of adversary gray-zone information tactics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗