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At least 55 records · Page 3

Unveiling sectoral coupling for resilient electrification of the transportation sector

Abstract Electrifying the transportation sector is crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and offers numerous benefits including increased energy efficiency, lower total ownership costs, enhanced national energy security, and improved air quality. Despite the availability of necessary technologies, fully integrating the transportation and electricity sectors presents challenges in understanding all benefits and risks. Previous studies have not highlighted the role of coupling between these sectors. To better understand this coupling, this work reviews the structure of the current fossil-fuel-based transportation sector (including its dependence on the electricity sector) and case studies of its vulnerabilities to key risks. By adopting a systemic perspective, we uncover the indispensable interplay between the transportation and electricity sectors, shedding light on previously neglected dynamics. Leveraging the principles of grid architecture (GA), we introduce a hierarchical approach to assess vulnerabilities within the prevailing fuel-based transportation system and elucidate pathways for enhancement through electrification.

Mitra, Bhaskar↗

Implications of an emission trading scheme for India’s net-zero strategy: a modelling-based assessment

To help meet its near-term NDC goals and long-term net-zero 2070 target, the Government of India has planned to establish a Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), i.e. a domestic emission trading scheme (ETS). An ETS is an inherently cost-effective policy instrument for emission reduction, providing the greatest flexibility to reduce emissions from within and across sectors. An effective ETS requires design features that consider country-specific challenges and reflect its role within the larger policy package to achieve long-term emission reduction. Within the Indian context and in this study we therefore investigate—(i) what might be the role of the ETS in achieving India’s long-term mitigation targets? (ii) How might the various sectors interact under an emissions cap? (iii) How might the ETS interact with existing energy and climate policies? We do this analysis by running four main scenarios using the integrated assessment model GCAM (v6.0), adapted to India-specific assumptions and expectations. These scenarios are—(i) NZ (net-zero), (ii) NZ + ETS, (iii) NZ + CC (command and control), and (iv) NZ + RPO (renewables purchase obligations) + ETS. The NZ scenario assumes India’s near-term and long-term climate commitments of net zero by 2070. Scenarios with ETS (ii) and (iv) apply an emissions cap on four sectors—electricity, iron and steel, cement, and fertilizer. The scenario with CC applies a homogenous emission cap on each of the chosen sectors but does not allow cross-sectoral trading. The last scenario includes renewables purchase obligations (RPOs along with an ETS. We show that under a specific ETS emissions cap: (i) the electricity sector emerges as the largest source of cost-effective greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction options; (ii) ETS with trading across sectors is around 24% more cost-effective than ETS with trading only within sectors, (iii) RPOs can be complementary to an ETS although the impact of RPOs on GHG reductions in the electricity sector would need to be considered when setting the level of the ETS cap (or emissions intensity targets) or the RPO targets to avoid low carbon prices, and (iv) the direction and volume of financial transfers across sectors depends on allocation targets set by the government. Based on these results we provide design recommendations for India’s ETS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (MEME-CCS)

This effort employs and adapts a rigorous multiscale electricity modeling platform at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and negative emissions technologies (NET) from the ARPA-E FLECCS program. NREL's modeling platform includes the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model, which projects future electricity generation mixes at sub-state-level resolution that are downscaled to the unit-level to enable hourly, zonal or nodal electricity production cost modeling in the PLEXOS model. The ReEDS-PLEXOS modeling suite is well-established for examining electric sector futures with high renewable energy penetrations, energy storage, electrification, and distributed generation. The key advancement proposed herein utilizes collaboration with CCS experts at the University of Wyoming (U.WY) and the FLECCS technology development teams to create innovative methods for representing CCS and NET in the ReEDS and PLEXOS models. Expanded technology options and new operational parameterizations are integrated into these models to allow an unprecedented combination of scope and resolution for exploring the future of CCS and NET. The resulting capabilities permit wide-ranging scenario analysis to assess CCS and NET deployment under alternative scenarios of CO2 prices and competitiveness of flexible CCS and NET technologies. We demonstrate sample deployment and operational outcomes to show how these models are being used to assess the future potential for FLECCS technologies and their impacts on the U.S. electricity system. These products will help an emerging CCS/NET industry in the United States by providing economics-driven guidance to technology developers while informing policy and investment decisions in the public and private sectors.

capacity expansion↗

The Role of Innovation in the Electric Utility Sector

Innovation is essential for future power systems to be safe and secure, clean and sustainable, affordable and equitable, and reliable and resilient, according to a recent National Academies report. But state regulatory reforms are needed to encourage adoption of new technologies to support evolution of the nation’s power systems.1 Berkeley Lab's report, The Role of Innovation in the Electric Utility Sector, provides consumer, labor, utility, third-party provider, and clean technology consultant perspectives on this theme. To achieve state targets for clean energy and greenhouse gas emissions, some state regulatory utility commissions are exploring new approaches to spur innovation: -For utilities, regulatory and marketing flexibility, increased funding for demonstration projects, and performance-based ratemaking including multi-year rate plans -For third parties, ways to provide utility customers with innovative products and services directly Among the questions the report addresses: 1. How are consumer advocate views evolving with respect to innovative regulatory and ratemaking approaches? 2. How can utility decarbonization and grid modernization initiatives provide opportunities for local communities and workers to receive tangible benefits and facilitate community support for siting electricity infrastructure? 3. How are electric utilities partnering with technology companies to provide innovative energy management services and sustainable energy solutions for utility customers? 4. What regulatory innovations are public utility commissions exploring to enable third-party providers to participate in the transition to a modern electric system? 5. What regulatory changes are needed to enable innovative solutions from utilities and third parties at the necessary speed and scale to meet state decarbonization goals? The report is the 13th in the Future Electric Utility Regulation series, which taps leading thinkers to tackle complex regulatory issues for electricity. 1 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. The National Academies Press.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Innovative Technologies for a Low Carbon Electricity System

The electricity sector represents the centerpiece of decarbonization pathways for the state. Decrease in the cost of renewable electricity generation, combined with ample solar energy, wind and other renewable resources, presents a realistic way to achieve electricity generation that is nearly free of CO 2 emissions by mid-century. Expansion of renewable electricity supply could allow replacement of many CO 2 -emitting technologies with ones that use electricity—in transportation, buildings, and possibly industry. Key elements of the path for California’s electricity sector are: restrain electricity demand through higher efficiency, rapidly expand renewable electricity generation, develop electricity storage to complement renewable electricity, manage flexible electricity loads for a low-carbon electricity system, electrify where appropriate to reduce CO 2 emissions, and maintain reliable and resilient electricity supply. This report provides an overview of a multitude of innovative technologies in each of the above areas that have the potential to help the state meet its decarbonization goals, while lowering costs and promoting greater reliability. The information presented provides a portrait of the landscape of technology innovation that can help policymakers, state agencies, and interested parties develop strategies to meet the state’s goals and to target efforts to support and nurture technology innovation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Relationship of dusk sector radial electric field to energy dispersion at the inner edge of the electron plasma sheet

It is shown that, by assuming that the magnetospheric particle boundaries are the result of steady state convection, the electron boundaries in the dusk sector are essentially sensitive to the local, not the global, electric field configuration. A simple, direct relationship is obtained between the dusk sector radial electric field and the inner edge of electron boundaries at various energies.

Horwitz, J. L.↗

Climate-Water-Electricity Interactions in the U.S. Under Alternative Decarbonized Futures

The U.S. electric sector is rapidly evolving, with widespread renewable energy deployment, building and transport electrification, and nuanced decarbonization policies. Climate change influences the supply and demand for electricity by altering water resources for cooling and hydropower, thermal plant efficiencies, and heating and cooling demand. This research combines global climate model data, asset-level water and streamflow modeling, and electric sector capacity expansion modeling to study climate-water-electricity interactions across myriad future climate and electricity scenarios that consider electrification and decarbonization using renewable, hydrogen, carbon capture, and nuclear technologies. Multi-model integration leads to insights into power-water sector interactions and their impacts on grid economics and environmental outcomes.

climate change↗

sCO 2 Brayton Energy Conversion Customer Discovery

All energy production systems need efficient energy conversion systems. Current Rankine cycles use water to generate steam at temperatures where efficiency is limited to around 40%. As existing fossil and nuclear power plants are decommissioned due to end of effective life and/or societies’ desire for cleaner generation options, more efficient energy conversion is needed to keep up with increasing electricity demands. Modern energy generation technologies, such as advanced nuclear reactors and concentrated solar, coupled to high efficiency sCO 2 conversion systems provide a solution to efficient, clean energy systems. Leading R&D communities worldwide agree that the successful development of sCO 2 Brayton power cycle technology will eventually bring about large-scale changes to existing multi-billion-dollar global markets and enable power applications not currently possible or economically justifiable. However, all new technologies face challenges in the path to commercialization and the electricity sector is distinctively risk averse. The Sandia sCO 2 Brayton team needs to better understand what the electricity sector needs in terms of new technology risk mitigation, generation efficiency, reliability improvements above current technology, and cost requirements which would make new technology adoption worthwhile. Relying on the R&D community consensus that a sCO 2 power cycle will increase the revenue of the electrical industry, without addressing the electrical industry’s concerns, significantly decreases the potential for adoption at commercial scale. With a clear understanding of the market perspectives on technology adoption, including military, private sector, and utilities customers, the Sandia Brayton Team can resolve industry concerns for smoother development and faster transition to commercialization. An extensive customer discovery process, similar to that executed through the NSF’s I-Corp program, is necessary in order to understand the pain points of the market and articulate the value proposition of Brayton systems in terms that engage decision makers and facilitate commercialization of the technology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Environmental trade-offs of direct air capture technologies in climate change mitigation toward 2100

Abstract Direct air capture (DAC) is critical for achieving stringent climate targets, yet the environmental implications of its large-scale deployment have not been evaluated in this context. Performing a prospective life cycle assessment for two promising technologies in a series of climate change mitigation scenarios, we find that electricity sector decarbonization and DAC technology improvements are both indispensable to avoid environmental problem-shifting. Decarbonizing the electricity sector improves the sequestration efficiency, but also increases the terrestrial ecotoxicity and metal depletion levels per tonne of CO 2 sequestered via DAC. These increases can be reduced by improvements in DAC material and energy use efficiencies. DAC exhibits regional environmental impact variations, highlighting the importance of smart siting related to energy system planning and integration. DAC deployment aids the achievement of long-term climate targets, its environmental and climate performance however depend on sectoral mitigation actions, and thus should not suggest a relaxation of sectoral decarbonization targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Use of Systems Engineering in Repurposing Coal-Fired Power Plants with Malta Pumped Thermal Energy Storage System

he electric sector across North America is facing a transition. Both economics and policy decisions have pointed towards a broad retirement of fossil assets across markets. Owners are facing the problem of how to evolve the base of the electric sector from fossil asset to greener alternative. Coal-fired power plants built the modern electricity grid. Their rotating machinery are the beating heart of the grid, providing essential resiliency and reliability services. Power plant retirements are disruptive to plant workforces and cause outsized impacts on surrounding communities. The transition from thermal power plants that use rotating machinery to generate electricity (e.g., coal- and gas-fired plants) to variable, inverter-based generation (e.g., solar and wind) is affecting the reliability of the electric grid. Grid operators and national regulators have issued warnings about known and anticipated risk. In 2021, Malta Inc. was awarded a Department of Energy (DOE) grant to study how to integrate a Malta 100MW Pumped Heat Energy Storage (PHES) system with a retiring coal-fired power plant to meet emissions requirements, retain plant workforces, preserve communities, and maintain grid reliability. This presentation provides a summary of this study, focusing on how systems engineering approach was used to arrive at a proposed design concept that met multiple objectives and requirements. There will be three main parts for this presentation. The first part of the presentation will focus on how different systems engineering was applied for this work. In particular, the following areas: stakeholder engagement, site selection process, developing requirements and use cases for the integrated system, defining the system and its boundary, coming up with different system architecture/option, performing a techno-economic analysis to compare the different options and down selection of the preferred option, will be discusses. For these areas, discussion on the decisions on how much breadth and depth to go into each area will be provided. These discussions provide good insights into how to apply systems engineering. The second part of the presentation will provide a deeper dive into the two recommended integration options that repurpose coal-fired power plants with Malta PHES system. The comparison of the two options and general guidance of how to choose an option will be provided. This is particularly useful for utilities who are facing coal-plant retirements. The two options will be compared based on its performance (such as power output, efficiency), complexity, and cost. The social impact on local communities of the two options will also be discussed. The final part of the presentation will discuss the impact that this work has had, including Malta Inc. being invited to the White House to discuss progress and outcomes of this work with the Interagency Working Group on Coal and Power Plant Communities and Economic Revitalization. In summary, this presentation aims to provide a showcase of how sy

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments

Long-term temperature change and variability are expected to have significant impacts on future electric capacity and investments. This study improves upon past studies by accounting for hourly and monthly dynamics of electricity use, long-term socioeconomic drivers, and interactions of the electric sector with rest of the economy for a comprehensive analysis of temperature change impacts on cooling and heating services and their corresponding impact on electric capacity and investments. Using the United States as an example, here we show that under a scenario consistent with a socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2) and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5), mean temperature changes drive increases in annual electricity demands by 0.5-8% across states in 2100. But more importantly, peak temperature changes drive increases in capital investments by 3-22%. Moreover, temperature-induced capital investments are highly sensitive to both long-term socioeconomic assumptions and spatial heterogeneity of fuel prices and capital stock characteristics, which underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach to inform long-term electric sector planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Representing the Future Role of Hydropower and Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) in Electricity Planning Tools

Existing tools for long-term electric sector planning struggle to represent hydropower's nuanced site-specific technical and operating characteristics, which depend on technical specifications as well as water management practices and regulations. As a result, long-term planning models and tools insufficiently characterize hydropower value and incentives, and they cannot fully represent the role hydropower can play in a future electricity system that could include a high penetration of variable wind and solar generation, battery storage, and other low-carbon technologies. This presentation demonstrates the culmination of a multi-year effort to enhance hydropower representations in electricity planning models at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) HydroWIRES Initiative. New modeling techniques are demonstrated using the NREL Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), an open-access electric sector capacity expansion model used extensively in a wide range of technology deployment and integration analysis, including the 2016 USDOE Hydropower Vision. ReEDS uses a least-cost optimization approach to understand investment and operation of electricity generation, storage, and transmission technologies under future scenarios of electricity technology innovation, demand, policy, and other sectoral drivers. ReEDS was modified to better represent value and opportunities for both pumped storage hydropower (PSH) and hydropower systems without pumping. We incorporated a new national closed-loop PSH resource and cost assessment to explore new PSH deployment opportunities and added plant-level data to better represent the existing PSH fleet. New upgrade pathways enable opportunities for enhanced hydropower flexibility by adding pumps, upgrading dispatchability, increasing capacity, or increasing energy availability. The model was also modified to better represent the value of long-duration energy storage beyond diurnal time scales, allowing both hydropower and PSH to better balance energy supply and demand variations in high-renewable systems. These new features are demonstrated under reference and high-renewable futures and a range of sensitivity scenarios to understand which hydropower and PSH deployment and upgrade opportunities are the most attractive. These scenarios indicate potential for new closed-loop PSH deployment and for hydropower flexibility improvements to have important impacts on long-term electricity system emissions and economic outcomes. Increasing flexibility of the existing hydropower fleet can reduce the need to invest in new flexible grid technologies and help achieve decarbonization goals. Systems with sufficient energy storage could also be valuable for balancing seasonal differences in renewable energy availability, particularly from solar energy. The methods developed for ReEDS and subsequent scenario results reveal important considerations for future hydropower and grid system planning, and all data and code is freely available in a public code repository for use throughout the hydropower industry.

capacity expansion↗

Short-Run Marginal Emission Factors Neglect Impactful Phenomena and are Unsuitable for Assessing the Power Sector Emissions Impacts of Hydrogen Electrolysis

This comment reacts to Ruhnau and Schiele's (2023) assessment of the cost and emissions impacts of electrolytic hydrogen production operating under different green hydrogen certification requirements in the EU. We critique the paper's use of short-run marginal emissions rates to estimate emissions impacts, a methodology which the literature has shown to be inadequate for assessing the full lifecycle emissions impacts of electricity sector interventions. We hope that our response clarifies the need to consider induced structural change when assessing the greenhouse gas emissions impacts of electricity sector decisions at all scales.

electricity↗

Assessing compounding climate-related stresses and development pathways on the power sector in the central U.S.

Future configurations of the power system in the central region of the USA are dependent on relative costs of alternative power generation technologies, energy and environmental policies, and multiple climate-induced stresses. Higher demand in the summer months combined with compounding supply shocks in several power generation technologies can potentially cause a “perfect storm” leading to failure of the power system. Potential future climate stress must be incorporated in investment decisions and energy system planning and operation. We assess how projected future climate impacts on the power system would affect alternative pathways for the electricity sector considering a broad range of generation technologies and changes in demand. We calculate a “potential supply gap” metric for each pathway, system component, and sub-region of the US Heartland due to climate-induced effects on electricity demand and power generation. Potential supply gaps range from 5% in the North Central region under mild changes in climate to 21% in the Lakes-Mid Atlantic region under more severe climate change. We find increases in electricity demand to be more important in determining the size of the potential supply gap than stresses on power generation, while larger shares of renewables in the power system contribute to lower supply gaps. Our results provide a first step toward considering systemic climate impacts that may require changes in managing the grid or on potential additional capacity/reserves that may be needed.

Gurgel, Angelo Costa↗

Cambium Documentation: Version 2021

Cambium is a tool that assembles structured data sets of simulated hourly emission, cost, and operational data for modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision-making. It was built to expand the metrics reported in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Standard Scenarios - an annually released set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, looking forward through 2050 (Cole et al. 2021) Information about Cambium and related publications can be found at https://nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html, and the Cambium data sets for the Standard Scenarios can be viewed and downloaded at https://cambium.nrel.gov/. In this documentation, we define the metrics reported in Cambium databases (Section 4) and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics (Section 5). As this document is intended to cover multiple Cambium data releases, we do not document specific scenarios here - for individual data releases, readers should look for an accompanying report that describes the assumptions and data that underlie that specific release. For Cambium databases that are built on NREL's Standard Scenarios, for example, reports describing the scenarios can be found on the Standard Scenarios web site (https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/standard-scenarios.html).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cambium 2022 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly emission, cost, and operational data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision making. The 2022 Cambium data set is the third annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL’s Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2022’s scenarios (Section 3), define the metrics (Section 5), and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics (Section 6).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Coordinated Modeling of Electric Grid and Natural Gas Network Operations

Presentation based upon full report of a Colorado case study and coordination framework, which is available at https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy20osti/77096.pdf. JISEA analysts Brian Sergi, Omar Guerra, and Bri-Mathias Hodge will present on recent JISEA work on coordination between the natural gas and electricity sectors. Power and gas are becoming increasingly interdependent but weren't designed to function together. How does greater coordination impact system operations with different levels of solar and wind penetrations? This free JISEA presentation will take place in a Webinar on Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 12 p.m.: Learn how greater coordination between the natural gas and electricity sectors impacts system operations with different levels of solar and wind penetrations. Presentation information includes: Historical and projected data for natural gas consumption and power generation in the United States as demonstrated by 2014 East Coast Polar Vortex, 2021 Texas Winter Storm Uri. Showing coupling points, FERC identified need for better coordination, different levels of coordination (decision making and optimization control), coordination framework. Case study on Colorado Front Range, ramping requirements and gas nominations, real-time dispatch (June and December scenarios), results of analysis of impacts of coordination on unserved load. Total real-time gas offtakes by node, impacts on unserved gas, effect on CO2 emissions. Discussions on clusions drawn from Colorado Case study expanded co-simulation via HELICS, objectives of the HELICS+ natural gas use case, modeling of hydrogen blending, techno economic assessment of blending, and blending impacts on energy content and pressure.

analysis↗