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At least 55 records · Page 3

Economic Analysis of Changes in Hydropower Operations at the Flaming Gorge Dam and the Aspinall Unit Due to the Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program

This report was prepared by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) in support of an economic analysis of operational restrictions at the Flaming Gorge Dam (FG) and the Aspinall Unit conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Western Area Power Administration (WAPA). WAPA markets electricity produced at hydroelectric facilities operated by the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation). The facilities known collectively as the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP) include dams equipped for power generation on the Colorado, Green, Gunnison, and Rio Grande Rivers and on Plateau Creek in the states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. This report presents detailed findings of an economic analysis of operational restrictions implemented at FG during water years (WYs) 2001 to 2016, and at the Aspinall Cascade during WYs 2013 to 2016. Staff members of Argonne’s Energy Systems Division prepared this document with assistance from staff members of WAPA’s Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) Management Center and Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Gasification and Techno-Economic Analysis of High-Impact Biomass Feedstocks for the Synthesis of High-Octane Gasoline

Five economically advantaged biomass feedstocks identified in the US Department of Energy's 2016 Billion Ton Study were gasified and the syngas reformed at the bench scale to study the feedstock price-performance relationship. The distribution of reformed syngas compositions, heating values, and yields were similar across the different feedstocks and blends thereof, which ranged from inexpensive residual wastes to more expensive and higher quality biomass, revealing that feedstock performance was mostly insensitive to its price. Custom blended feedstocks produced syngas with characteristics resembling linear combinations of syngas from single-component feedstocks, supporting the ability to customize and predict blended properties based on single-feedstock data. A techno-economic analysis of specific feedstock costs for producing high-octane gasoline showed that miscanthus and forest residues were the most cost-effective with gas yields consistent with experimental gasification data. A field-to-wheels life-cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions showed that forest residues was the most environmentally benign feedstock of those studied.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Algal Biofuels Techno-Economic Analysis 1.3.5.200

The objective of NREL's Algal Biofuel Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) project is to provide process modeling and analysis to support Algae Program activities, utilizing TEA models to relate key process parameters with overall economics for cultivation, processing, and conversion of algal biomass to fuels and coproducts. By quantifying economic implications of key process metrics, TEA models highlight the technical requirements to achieve future program cost goals as well as enabling a means to track progress towards these goals. This project provides high impact and relevance though generation of critical cost data tied to funded research, with our analyses subsequently exercised by BETO to guide program plans, FOA priorities, and other directives. This includes costs for both algal biomass production and downstream conversion, most notably to support BETO's fuel cost targets below $2.5/GGE by 2030. To mitigate a key risk/challenge in constraining our work to academic analyses rooted only in future projections, our work also seeks to provide near-term value to today's algae industry through frequent industry engagement, while maintaining close ties with other BETO collaborators. This project has made numerous accomplishments since the 2019 peer review, including a continued focus on opportunities for value-added products, with related analyses for new pathway opportunities to achieve BETO cost goals and notable State-of-Technology (SOT) improvements over prior cost benchmarks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals↗

Techno-economic analysis of bioplastic and biofuel production from a high-ash microalgae biofilm cultivated in effluent from a municipal anaerobic digester

Rotating Algae Biofilm Reactors (RABRs) are a promising technology for efficient treatment of wastewater and production of algae-based bioproducts. However, RABR-grown algae can contain a high content of ash (30–60 wt%, dry basis), which influences the technical and economic feasibility of bioproduct conversion processes. In this report, experimental studies and economic analysis were conducted to compare different processes for bioproduct conversion of a high-ash microalgae biofilm grown using a RABR treating 0.6 million gallons per day of anaerobic digestion centrate at the Central Valley Water Reclamation Facility in Salt Lake City, UT. Process and economic models were developed and compared for three conversion processes: 1) the production of bioplastics, 2) the production of bioplastics with a lipid-extraction pretreatment, and 3) the production of biocrude via hydrothermal liquefaction. Techno-economic analysis was performed for each conversion process, including three cases for algae productivity: 231, 391, and 577 metric tons per year (dry basis). The calculated value for the minimum plastic selling price (MPSP) of bioplastics produced from algae ranges from $\$4050$ to $\$3520$ per metric ton based on the baseline and final productivity cases of the RABR, respectively. The extraction of lipids in addition to bioplastic production results in an MPSP of $\$4570$ to $\$4000$ per metric ton for the same productivity cases. The relatively small production scale and complex processing for hydrothermal liquefaction results in a minimum fuel selling price of the biocrude of $\$5.32$ per gallon of gasoline equivalent. In conclusion, the conversion process for bioplastic production from whole algae has the highest income:expense ratio and the most cost-competitive pricing of the three modeled processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Techno-Economic Analysis

This National Energy Technology Laboratory presentation was given at the Carbon Conversion Procurement Grant Program Regional Workshops. The workshops are organized collaboratively by the DOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management and the United States Energy Association. There are a series of four workshops scheduled: 1) August 30, 2022 in Knoxville, TN (University of Tennessee) 2) September 13, 2022 in Emeryville, CA (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 3) September 27, 2022 in New York, NY (Orrick, Herrington, & Sutcliffe LLP) 4) October 18, 2022 in Minneapolis, MN (TBD) The intent of the workshop is to provide potential applicants with background on the Procurement Grants program and the types of information requested. The specific purpose of this presentation is to give a high-level overview of techno-economic analysis to an audience that has little to no experience conducting them. The intent is to help the audience understand why techno-economic analysis is requested in the application process and to educate on its utility.

Hackett, Gregory↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of CSP Incorporating sCO2 Brayton Power Cycles: Trade-Off Between Cost and Performance

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants, thanks to the implementation of cost-competitive thermal energy storage, represent a dispatchable zero-emission alternative to traditional fossil fuel power plants. Next generation solar towers are expected to adopt high temperature receivers (>700 degrees C) coupled to sCO2-based power blocks, which optimal design is generally pushed towards the maximum cycle efficiency, often neglecting the economic impact with the justification that the main share of the capital cost is represented by the heliostat field. As result, the scientific literature lacks in comprehensive studies on techno-economic evaluation of CSP+sCO2 power plants addressing the important correlation that exists between system cost and performances. This work provides a preliminary techno-economic analysis of a solar power tower comparing four different cycle configurations for the sCO2 power block. Results have been reported on a Pareto front, highlighting the tradeoff between the plant investment cost and the solar-to-electricity plant efficiency. The trends of the optimization variables and cycle results have been reported to give useful insights about proper assumptions for the sCO2 power block design. The recompressed cycle with intercooling resulted as the most promising configuration and it has been further analyzed through a comparison of different solutions on the Pareto front. The cost breakdown of the sCO2 power block has been reported to highlight which components have the greatest impact on the overall plant cost and how they vary along the optimal solutions front. Eventually, the optimization has been repeated introducing a correlation to compute the turbomachinery isentropic efficiencies, to investigate their effect on the techno- economic analysis.

concentrated solar power↗

Coal-based Bricks & Blocks (CBBs): Process Development to Prototype Fabrication Coupled with Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Survey

Coal-based bricks and blocks (CBBs) were formulated using anthracite and thermoplastic binder. Lab scale test composites were formed by hot-press molding and commercial extrusion for test articles and for a full-scale prototype. Formulations and test matrices followed a systematic experimental design to examine the effects of and interactions among three primary independent variables: a) thermoplastic type, b) weight fractions of binder relative to the total anthracite weight, and c) relative proportions of large versus small (milled) anthracite size fractions. Technical performance metrics include compressive strength, modulus, porosity/permeability and density. These DoE studies establish composition-property relations and identify the best combination for any desired property of interest – in particular, strength. Based on CBB composition and fabrication process, validated against technical performance metrics, a techno-economic analysis was constructed which incorporated a process flow model, engineering design (with scaling), and calculated capital plus operating costs. Based on measured property metrics and estimated process economics and a projected price by TEA (techno-economic analysis), building and construction target markets were identified by a market survey assessment. With known cost, price, performance metrics and competitive advantages for CBBs matched with commercial applications/uses, a technical gap analysis was performed to identify further development required for scale-up and commercialization.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Preliminary Pilot-scale Study and Techno-economic Analysis of Chemical Heat Pump with Conventional Nuclear Reactors

The energy economy is continually evolving, particularly in terms of primary energy sources, their conversions to useful forms such as electricity and heat, and their utilization in different sectors, in response to socio-political factors. Because nuclear source is clean and non-carbon-emitting energy source, it is crucial to consider its role in the evolution of the energy economy. A pilot-scale study was conducted for Chemical Heat Pump (ChHP) system at three different scales (25-, 100-, and 1000-kW thermal outputs) using steady state thermal model. To establish the viability of selling heat rather than electricity alone, techno-economic analysis was undertaken for advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR), and SMR paired with varied thermal output ChHP systems was referred to as the nuclear hybrid energy system (NHES) in this study. Using the U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics, pricing for electricity and natural gas were anticipated for U.S. regions (California, Northwest, Midwest, Southwest, New England, and PJM). Based on thermal output from ChHP, advanced SMR with 100 MWth and four alternative NHES scenarios were explored, namely 50-, 10-, 5-, and 1-MWth. Net present value, payback period, discounted cash flow return, and levelized cost of energy were evaluated for all scenarios. Based on the economic analysis, selling heat to high-temperature industrial processes is more profitable compared to selling electricity only. Higher carbon taxes showed significant improvement in economic parameters for NHESs. Providing heat to high-temperature industries could be beneficial, helping to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions by slashing the fossil fuel consumption.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Economic analysis of precious metal recovery from electronic waste through gas-assisted microflow extraction

The recycling of end-of-life (EoL) electronic products is motivated by the enormous investment of resources in their creation and the environmental concerns associated with electronic waste (e-waste). Hydrometallurgical methods that utilize conventional leaching and solvent extraction are often applied to extract target materials from e-waste; however, these techniques have significant technical and economic limitations when extracting high-value, low concentration metals from complex waste streams. This study proposes and evaluates a novel process based on gas-assisted microflow extraction (GAME) that efficiently recovers precious metals from waste printed circuit boards (WPCBs). Further, an economic analysis is conducted to verify the economic feasibility of the GAME-based process at an industrial scale. The economic outputs are further investigated to identify the most cost-effective production strategies, particularly with respect to the plant feedstock rate. It is envisioned that this study may establish a paradigm for making economically-informed decisions for sustainable technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Techno-economic Analysis of Novel PV Plant Designs for Extreme Cost Reductions

A techno-economic analysis is underway examining the cost and performance of future large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plant components, including bifacial modules, tandem modules, increased plant voltage architectures, and module-level power electronics. Integration of these components into PV plant designs is compared with current PV technologies based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Baseline models are developed and validated against recorded PV plant performance data. Expected cost and performance data of future PV technologies are incorporated into the baseline models. An evolutionary algorithm is utilized to optimize PV plant configuration, technology combination, and LCOE. This paper focuses on the bifacial module analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment of Waste Lignin Fractionation and Valorization Using the ALPHA Process

Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) were performed on the Aqueous Lignin Purification with Hot Agents (ALPHA) process, which is being investigated for the fractionation and purification of raw, bulk lignins recovered from cellulosic ethanol biorefineries or Kraft pulp mills. Here, ALPHA is proposed for the isolation of lignin from a corn stover-to-ethanol plant into purified low, medium, and high molecular weight (MW) fractions for producing polyurethane foam, activated carbon, and carbon fiber, respectively. A scenario analysis was conducted to determine the effect of ALPHA solvent choice on process economics and environmental performance. Solvent choice was found to have a significant impact on ALPHA, with a minimum selling price of 838/tonne with use of acetic acid vs 463/tonne with ethanol. Conversion of the lignin, processed with ethanol solvent, to high-value products yields 151 million/year in profit, which over 30 years results in a total net present value of 533 million. A life cycle assessment was conducted to determine the “gate-to-gate” greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption of the lignin-based products compared to fossil-based equivalents. In conclusion, a value allocation scenario was conducted and it was determined that products generated using the ALPHA process with ethanol have similar or lower greenhouse gas emissions than the same products from fossil feedstocks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment for the catalytic hydrogenolysis and hydrocracking of polyethylene

Catalytic hydrogenolysis and hydrocracking are promising technologies for the conversion of polyolefin waste into hydrocarbons. Here, to explore the economic and environmental viability of these approaches, we conducted techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment of polyethylene hydrogenolysis and hydrocracking processes that produce fuel-range products or olefins, respectively. Relative to primary production, the minimum selling price (MSP) of alkanes for linear-chain naphtha was estimated to be 1.8-fold higher, whereas branched-chain naphtha and propylene were shown to be cost competitive. Environmental impacts showed similar trends across scenarios, with propylene production by hydrocracking exhibiting greenhouse gas emissions comparable with conventional propylene due to relatively low hydrogen demand and high yield. Together, these results suggest that innovations in catalysis and reaction engineering will be required to make viable products that are scale matched with today's plastics, such as light olefins for closed-loop recycling.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗