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At least 55 records · Page 3

Analysis of the 2021 Milford, Utah earthquake swarm: Enhanced earthquake catalog and migration patterns

An earthquake swarm occurred in Spring 2021 in south-central Utah near the town of Milford. The University of Utah Seismograph Stations located 125 earthquakes between March 19 and May 10 with magnitudes ranging from 0.5 to 3.2. We implement a matched-filter technique in order to identify additional earthquakes that went undetected during the routine network location. The 125 network-located earthquakes are used as templates and are cross-correlated with continuous data for the dates Feb 17—June 10. This time period corresponds to approximately 1 month before the earthquake swarm began through 1 month after it ended. For the matched-filter analysis, we rely heavily on station FOR1, which is located within 5 km of most template events. Four other stations within 20–30 km of most template events provide a supplement to the closest station. The matched-filter implementation results in the detection of over 600 earthquakes in addition to the original 125 catalog events. This is one of the largest swarms ever recorded in Utah, and no previous large swarms have been recorded in this location. We use HypoDD to obtain relative double-difference locations of the catalog events. Both routine locations and HypoDD relocations of the catalog events suggest a fault dipping west beneath the mountain range, opposite of typical Basin and Range normal faults that dip beneath alluvial valleys. Moment tensors for the largest five events show normal faulting consistent with the west-dipping fault seen in the seismicity. Hydrothermal features in the area, including a geothermal power plant, suggest that fluids may be a contributing factor to the earthquake swarm triggering. We examine the role of fluids by exploring bounds on diffusion parameters and investigating spatial migration characteristics of the swarm seismicity. We conclude that this swarm is the result of heterogenous stress conditions in a prefractured region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Autonomous extraction of millimeter-scale deformation in InSAR time series using deep learning

Systematically characterizing slip behaviours on active faults is key to unraveling the physics of tectonic faulting and the interplay between slow and fast earthquakes. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), by enabling measurement of ground deformation at a global scale every few days, may hold the key to those interactions. However, atmospheric propagation delays often exceed ground deformation of interest despite state-of-the art processing, and thus InSAR analysis requires expert interpretation and a priori knowledge of fault systems, precluding global investigations of deformation dynamics. Here, we show that a deep auto-encoder architecture tailored to untangle ground deformation from noise in InSAR time series autonomously extracts deformation signals, without prior knowledge of a fault’s location or slip behaviour. Applied to InSAR data over the North Anatolian Fault, our method reaches 2 mm detection, revealing a slow earthquake twice as extensive as previously recognized. We further explore the generalization of our approach to inflation/deflation-induced deformation, applying the same methodology to the geothermal field of Coso, California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Small Seismic Events in Oklahoma Detected and Located by Machine Learning–Based Models

A complete earthquake catalog is essential to understand earthquake nucleation and fault stress. Following the Gutenberg–Richter law, smaller, unseen seismic events dominate the earthquake catalog and are invaluable for revealing the fault state. The published earthquake catalogs, however, typically miss a significant number of small earthquakes. Part of the reason is due to a limitation of conventional algorithms, which can hardly extract small signals from background noise in a reliable and efficient way. To address this challenge, we utilized a machine learning method and developed new models to detect and locate seismic events. These models are efficient in processing a large amount of seismic data and extracting small seismic events. We applied our method to seismic data in Oklahoma, United States, and detected ~14 times more earthquakes compared with the standard Oklahoma Geological Survey catalog. The rich information contained in the new catalog helps better understand the induced earthquakes in Oklahoma.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Physics-based Induced Earthquake Forecasting: Process Understanding, and Hazards Mitigation

Disposal of saltwater co-produced with oil and gas is linked to elevated seismicity in the Central and Midwest US. There is a concern that these events may lead to widespread damage and an overall increase in seismicity. Thus an improved understanding of the spatially and temporally variable deformation and stress field associated with fluid injection operation is critically necessary for evaluating time-varying seismic hazards. Despite the improvements in seismic monitoring capacity and the resulting decrease in the magnitude detection threshold, estimates of induced earthquake probability remain elusive due to insufficient models incapable of accounting for the complex physics governing the process of induced seismicity. The proposed research effort will comprehensively analyze, integrate, and interpret geodetic, injection, and seismic data in the vicinity of the injection sites in Oklahoma to resolve the 4-dimensional distribution of pore pressure and stress in the shallow crust. This project, in particular, is focused on exploring the statistical relation between injection operation and increased earthquake hazard. The amplitude of and the extent to which pore pressure changes are determined by some factors, in particular, the hydrogeological properties of the rocks, such as diffusivity. Thus the available deformation data will be used to constrain hydrogeological properties of the medium, to accurately resolve the evolution of crustal stresses due to fluid injection. Having the time-varying models of stress changes, a statistical framework will be implemented to estimate the time-dependent probability of large earthquakes on the nearby fault systems. These data and models help to improve seismic hazard estimates and aid in constructing operational-induced earthquake forecast models. This information can also be integrated into the updated U.S. National Seismic Hazard Map, which local communities and authorities use in their earthquake risk estimates and mitigation efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Geodetic Measurements of Slow-Slip Events Southeast of Parkfield, CA

Tremor and low-frequency earthquakes are presumed to be indicative of surrounding slow, aseismic slip that is often below geodetic detection thresholds. This study uses data from borehole seismometers and long-baseline laser strainmeters to observe both the seismic and geodetic signatures of episodic tremor and slip on the Parkfield region of the San Andreas Fault near Cholame, CA. We note the observed occurrence rates of both the tremors and co-located families of low-frequency earthquakes are not steady but instead exhibit quasiperiodic bursts of increased activity.We show that these periods of elevated seismic activity correlate with statistically significant stacked strain signals consisting of 44 slow-slip events. Modeled individual slow-slip events and their total summed moment, which are constrained by seismic signals and stacked strain, respectively, indicate that the individual moment magnitudes of these events range from $M_w$ 4.6–5.2.We find that the measured geodetic signal likely precedes the seismic signal by several hours, consistent with the aseismic slip preceding and driving the observed seismic tremor activity.We confirm that strike-slip faults, in addition to subduction zones, are capable of producing episodic tremor and slip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A “Floatilla” of Airborne Seismometers for Venus

Abstract Barometers floating on high‐altitude balloons in the relatively clement cloud layer on Venus could detect and characterize acoustic waves generated by seismic activity, avoiding the need for high‐temperature electronics required for surface seismology. Garcia et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098844 ) recently demonstrated the detection of low‐frequency sound (infrasound) caused by earthquakes of magnitudes 7.3 and 7.5 from stratospheric balloons nearly 3,000 km away from the epicenter. They provided a preliminary demonstration of earthquake magnitude and location inversion, and the determination of S‐ and Rayleigh wave velocities using only their acoustic signature. Large earthquakes produce low‐frequency seismic waves that penetrate the interiors of planets; their detection at continental‐scale distances from a high‐vantage point demonstrates the feasibility of balloon‐based investigations of Venus' interior. We contextualize these results within the effort to perform seismology on Venus from balloons, discuss its limitations, and share perspectives on open research questions in this area.

Krishnamoorthy, Siddharth↗

Seismoacoustic Signatures Observed During a Long-Term Deployment of Infrasound Sensors at the Nevada National Security Site

Earthquakes have repeatedly been shown to produce inaudible acoustic signals (<20 Hz), otherwise known as infrasound. These signals can propagate hundreds to thousands of kilometers and still be detected by ground-based infrasound arrays depending on the source strength, distance between source and receiver, and atmospheric conditions. Another type of signal arrival at infrasound arrays is the seismic induced motion of the sensor itself, or ground-motion-induced sensor noise. Measured acoustic and seismic waves produced by earthquakes can provide insight into properties of the earthquake such as magnitude, depth, and focal mechanism, as well as information about the local lithology and atmospheric conditions. Large earthquakes that produce strong acoustic signals detected at distances greater than 100 km are the most commonly studied; however, more recent studies have found that smaller magnitude earthquakes ($M$ w <2.0) can be detected at short ranges. In that vein, this study will investigate the ability for a long-term deployment of infrasound sensors (deployed as part of the Source Physics Experiments [SPE] from 2014 to 2020) to detect both seismic and infrasonic signals from earthquakes at local ranges (<50 km). Methods used include a combination of spectral analysis and automated array processing, supported by U.S. Geological Survey earthquake bulletins. Further, this investigation revealed no clear acoustic detections for short range earthquakes. However, secondary infrasound from an $M$ w 7.1 earthquake over 200 km away was detected. Important insights were also made regarding the performance of the SPE networks including detections of other acoustic sources such as bolides and rocket launches. Finally, evaluation of the infrasound arrays is performed to provide insight into optimal deployments for targeting earthquake infrasound.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessing the Effectiveness of Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test Detector Schemes in Seismic Event Detection and the Avoidance of Nontarget Signals

Cross-correlation techniques have played a long-standing and pivotal role in seismic event monitoring. However, the performance of correlation-based detectors is challenged by nuisance seismicity, or nontarget signals. Such detections are a problem when the mission is to automatically map events to the correct source region. Using aftershocks of the 2014 $M_w$ 6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake, we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing a dynamic correlation processor framework in a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) detector configuration to minimize nontarget detections. A GLRT maximizes a detection statistic with respect to one or more unknown parameters. In this case, the detection statistic is a template signal match against the waveform in a window sliding over a data stream, and the unknown parameter is an index variable indicating group membership of the template event or events. Detected events are assigned to the event group that yields the largest detection statistic. In this work, our results show that a GLRT detector will outperform a suite of independently operating correlation and subspace detectors in terms of having a lower nontarget detection rate at a given missed detection rate. We also show that a GLRT detector composed of a few high-rank subspace detectors has a slightly higher nontarget detection rate, but a significantly lower missed detection rate, than a GLRT detector composed of many low-rank subspace detectors. The high-rank GLRT configuration produced impressive results even with marginal data (single channel, single station, and very low time bandwidth product), which bodes well for the utility of building efficient aftershock classification systems and global monitoring systems at larger scales. However, future work is required to assess performance at the regional scale and to assess the performance of the system at detecting target events not used in the detector template creation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A New Method for High Resolution Surface Change Detection: Data Collection and Validation of Measurements from UAS at the Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA

The use of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) increases the opportunities for detecting surface changes in remote areas and in challenging terrain. Detecting surface topographic changes offers an important constraint for understanding earthquake damage, groundwater depletion, effects of mining, and other events. For these purposes, changes on the order of 5–10 cm are readily detected, but sometimes it is necessary to detect smaller changes. An example is the surface changes that result from underground explosions, which can be as small as 3 cm. Previous studies that described change detection methodologies were generally not aimed at detecting sub-5-cm changes. Additionally, studies focused on high-fidelity accuracy were either computationally modeled or did not fully provide the necessary examples to highlight the usability of these workflows. Detecting changes at this threshold may be critical in certain applications, such as global security research and monitoring for high-consequence natural hazards, including landslides. Here we provide a detailed description of the methodology we used to detect 2–3 cm changes in an important applied research setting—surface changes related to underground explosions. This methodology improves the accuracy of change detection data collection and analysis through the optimization of pre-field planning, surveying, flight operations, and post-processing the collected data, all of which are critical to obtaining the highest output data resolution possible. We applied this methodology to a field study location, collecting 1.4 Tb of images over the course of 30 flights, and location data for 239 ground control points (GCPs). We independently verified changes with orthoimagery, and found that structure-from-motion, software-reported root mean square errors (RMSEs) for both control and check points underestimated the actual error. We found that 3 cm changes are detectable with this methodology, thereby improving our knowledge of a rock’s response to underground explosions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Precursory Off-Fault Deformation in Restraining and Releasing Step Overs: Insights From Discrete Element Method Models

Accelerating geophysical activity is detected preceding some, but not all, large earthquakes. This observation may indicate that no precursors occur before some earthquakes, or that the instrumentation lacks the required sensitivity. Here, to aid crustal monitoring efforts, we use discrete element method models to identify the locations and styles of deformation that may provide useful information about approaching fault reactivation. We model the reactivation of two healed rough faults in a variety of step over configurations, embedded in a host rock with varying amounts of damage subject to shear velocity loading parallel to the faults. Both the fault geometry and ratio of fault to host rock strength control the amount of off-fault deformation. Consistent with field observations, models with larger steps and more preexisting host rock damage produce higher amounts of off-fault deformation. We assess the size of the continuous regions of high velocities and strains to compare the value of the precursory information of each velocity and strain component. Comparing the three components of the velocity vector suggests that the fault-parallel velocity produces the largest and most temporally continuous regions of elevated velocity. The size of these regions increases toward failure, indicating the usefulness of tracking this component. Comparing the volumetric and shear components of the three-dimensional strain tensor suggests that during most of the interseismic period, the shear strain provides more information about approaching fault slip than the volumetric strain. However, in the days and months preceding fault reactivation, both the shear and volumetric strains provide similarly valuable information.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Legacy surface change analyses of the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence for direct comparison to planned NA-22 underground conventional high-explosive experiments (Source Physics Experiment 3 (SPE3) - RV/DC Task 1.3 FY22 Final Report)

Recent work under two previous phases of the NNSA NA-22 Source Physics Experiment (SPE) have shown that underground chemical high-explosive experiments can produce detectable surface changes that differ in spatial extent and vertical magnitude depending on the geologic media at the site (Schultz-Fellenz et al., 2018; 2020; Crawford et al., 2021). Neither of these two prior phases of SPE identified natural earthquake-related surface effects in the same region that occurred at a similar depth as the explosive experiments for direct comparison. While earthquakes can also produce surface changes that are detectable using remote sensing data analyses, it is expected that the pattern and spatial extent of surface changes would vary between earthquakes and explosions. However, no direct-observed surface-change signature comparison between earthquakes and explosions has ever been performed. The SPE Phase 3 Rock Valley/Direct Comparison (RV/DC) program presents a unique opportunity to investigate and characterize co-occurrence of both earthquakes and explosions. In this project, we worked to address five tasks in a workflow, as follows: 1. Identify and obtain existing high-resolution legacy satellite and aerial imagery as close in time before and after the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence to temporally constrain the analyses. 2. Transform these pre-earthquake and post-earthquake datasets into digital elevation models (DEMs) using geospatial analysis software packages (e.g., ArcGIS, Agisoft Metashape, and Google Earth Engine). 3. Perform DEM differencing analyses to assess and quantify earthquake-related changes from the 1993 sequence, and develop map products that visualize these analyses. 4. Use the analyses from (3) to: (a) assess spatial distribution and magnitude of surface changes due to the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence, and (b) determine parameters of forthcoming, planned explosion-related surface change data collection from sensors mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (e.g., spatial extent of collection, design and density of survey control, sensors to deploy, forward speed and line spacing of UAV flight lines, flight altitude). 5. Develop a summary report on the analyses, including how the analyses define parameters and identify focus areas for any future surface change analytical field campaigns related to the explosive experiment. Analyzing these legacy data and identifying whether they can detect any surface changes related to the earthquake sequence facilitates opportunities for direct signature comparison of surface change from explosions at one location, which has never previously been performed. Comparing the surface change signatures from a co-located and depth-equivalent earthquake and an explosion could help to advance remote sensing event discrimination techniques. This report summarizes the work completed toward this ambitious goal.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Data Analysis of the 2020 Central Idaho Mainshock-Aftershock Sequence

In an effort to inform the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee for the Idaho National Laboratory, we provide an improved aftershock catalog related to the March 31, 2020, Mw6.5 Stanley, Idaho earthquake from picks related to a temporary network of two real-time and 15 non-telemetered seismometers within the epicentral area. From the permanent and temporary (XP) real-time network, the USGS cataloged 1,946 aftershocks between April 1, 2020 and October 31, 2020. To improve aftershock location and magnitudes, we manually picked arrival times of P and S waves from off-line stations in the XP temporary network, generated a new crustal velocity model, and independently relocated each event using the HypoDD double-difference earthquake algorithm. We created our new velocity model from existing broadband and active source seismic campaign data that were acquired near the epicentral region prior to the 2020 earthquake. We compare arrival time differences, epicentral locations and depths between aftershocks recorded with the two catalogs. We find the addition of local stations provides tighter aftershock clustering that suggests an improved aftershock locations. To detect lower magnitude events, we employed deep learning. Our method solves common problems associated with detecting many events that have a low signal-to-noise ratio. From the machine learning database, we detected more than 74,000 aftershocks. Based on the number of identified earthquakes and Gutenberg-Richter relationships derived from the USGS catalog, we estimate that we have reduced the completion magnitude for the Stanley earthquake sequence to below M1 using this machine learning approach. We located each aftershock with our new velocity model. Our new velocity model and picks suggests aftershocks occurred mostly at shallower depths than assessed in the USGS catalog. These aftershocks align along two linear trends that suggest the activation of two unnamed primary faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Coupled Hydromechanical Modeling of Induced Seismicity From CO 2 Injection in the Illinois Basin

Injection of CO 2 for geologic carbon sequestration into deep sedimentary formations involves fluid pressure increases that engage hydromechanical processes that can cause seismicity by activation of existing faults. In this work, we use a coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical simulator to model spatiotemporal fluid pressure and stress changes in order to study the poroelastic effect of CO 2 injection on faults in crystalline basement rock below the injection zone. The seismicity rate along features interpreted to be basement faults is modeled using Dieterich's rate-and-state earthquake nucleation model. The methodology is applied to microseismicity detected during CO 2 injection into the Mount Simon formation during the Illinois Basin—Decatur Project. The modeling accurately captures an observed reduction in seismicity rate when the injection in the second well was into a slightly shallower zone above the base of the Mount Simon formation. Moreover, the modeling shows that it is important to consider poroelastic stress changes, in addition to fluid pressure changes for accurately modeling of the observed seismicity rate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Detecting damaged buildings using real-time crowdsourced images and transfer learning

After significant earthquakes, we can see images posted on social media platforms by individuals and media agencies owing to the mass usage of smartphones these days. These images can be utilized to provide information about the shaking damage in the earthquake region both to the public and research community, and potentially to guide rescue work. This paper presents an automated way to extract the damaged buildings images after earthquakes from social media platforms such as Twitter and thus identify the particular user posts containing such images. Using transfer learning and ~ 6500 manually labelled images, we trained a deep learning model to recognize images with damaged buildings in the scene. The trained model achieved good performance when tested on newly acquired images of earthquakes at different locations and when ran in near real-time on Twitter feed after the 2020 M7.0 earthquake in Turkey. Furthermore, to better understand how the model makes decisions, we also implemented the Grad-CAM method to visualize the important regions on the images that facilitate the decision.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Frequency-Domain-Based Algorithm for Detecting Microseismicity Using Dense Surface Seismic Arrays

We propose a new frequency-domain-based algorithm for detecting small-magnitude seismic events using dense surface seismic arrays. Our proposed method takes advantage of the high energy carried by S waves, and approximate known source locations, which are used to rotate the horizontal components to obtain the maximum amplitude. By surrounding the known source area with surface geophones, we achieve a favorable geometry for locating the detected seismic events with the backprojection method. To test our new detection method, we used a dense circular array, consisting of 151 5 Hz three-component geophones, over a 5 km aperture that was in operation at the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) in southcentral Utah. We apply the new detection method during a small-scale test injection phase at FORGE, and during an aftershock sequence of an Mw 4.1 earthquake located ~30 km north of the geophone array, within the Black Rock volcanic field. We are able to detect and locate microseismic events (Mw<0) during injections, despite the high level of anthropogenic activity, and several aftershocks that are missing from the regional catalog. By comparing our method with known algorithms that operate both in the time and frequency domain, we show that our proposed method performs better in the case of the FORGE injection monitoring, and equally well for the off-array aftershock sequence. Our new method has the potential to improve microseismic event detections even in extremely noisy environments, and the proposed location scheme serves as a direct discriminant between true and false detections.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Identifying Different Classes of Seismic Noise Signals Using Unsupervised Learning

Abstract Proper classification of nontectonic seismic signals is critical for detecting microearthquakes and developing an improved understanding of ongoing weak ground motions. We use unsupervised machine learning to label five classes of nonstationary seismic noise common in continuous waveforms. Temporal and spectral features describing the data are clustered to identify separable types of emergent and impulsive waveforms. The trained clustering model is used to classify every 1 s of continuous seismic records from a dense seismic array with 10–30 m station spacing. We show that dominate noise signals can be highly localized and vary on length scales of hundreds of meters. The methodology demonstrates the complexity of weak ground motions and improves the standard of analyzing seismic waveforms with a low signal‐to‐noise ratio. Application of this technique will improve the ability to detect genuine microseismic events in noisy environments where seismic sensors record earthquake‐like signals originating from nontectonic sources.

Johnson, Christopher W.↗