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NASA NTRS1993

An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22

In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Modeling of the Coupled Magnetospheric and Neutral Wind Dynamos

Over the past four years of funding, SRI, in collaboration with the University of Texas at Dallas, has been involved in assessing the influence of thermospheric neutral winds on the electric field and current systems at high latitudes. The initial direction of the project was to perform a set of numerical experiments concerning the contribution of the magnetospheric and neutral wind dynamo processes, under specific boundary conditions, to the polarization electric field and/or the field-aligned current distribution at high latitudes. To facilitate these numerical experiments we developed a numerical scheme that relied on using output from the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere General Circulation Model (NCAR-TIGCM), expanding them in the form of spherical harmonics and solving the dynamo equations spectrally. Once initial calculations were completed, it was recognized that the neutral wind contribution could be significant but its actual contribution to the electric field or currents depended strongly on the generator properties of the magnetosphere. Solutions to this problem are not unique because of the unknown characteristics of the magnetospheric generator, therefore the focus was on two limiting cases. One limiting case was to consider the magnetosphere as a voltage generator delivering a fixed voltage to the high-latitude ionosphere and allowing for the neutral wind dynamo to contribute only to the current system. The second limiting case was to consider the magnetosphere as a current generator and allowing for the neutral wind dynamo to contribute only to the generation of polarization electric fields. This work was completed and presented at the l994 Fall AGU meeting. The direction of the project then shifted to applying the Poynting flux concept to the high-latitude ionosphere. This concept was more attractive as it evaluated the influence of neutral winds on the high-latitude electrodynamics without actually having to determine the generator characteristics of the magnetosphere. The influence of the neutral wind was then determined not by estimating how much electric potential or current density it provides, but by determining the contribution of the neutral wind to the net electromagnetic energy transferred between the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The estimate of the net electromagnetic energy transfer and the role of the neutral winds proves to be a more fundamental quantity in studies of magnetosphere- ionosphere coupling also showed that by using electric and magnetic field measurements from the HILAT satellite, the Poynting flux could be a measurable quantity from polar-orbiting, low- altitude spacecraft. Through collaboration with Dr. Heelis and others at UTD and their expertise of the electric field measurements on the DE-B satellite, an extensive analysis was planned to determine the Poynting flux from the DE-B measurements in combination with a modeling effort to help interpret the observations taking into account the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere.

Thayer, Jeffrey P.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Relating Stellar Cycle Periods to Dynamo Calculations

Stellar magnetic activity in slowly rotating stars is often cyclic, with the period of the magnetic cycle depending critically on the rotation rate and the convective turnover time of the star. Here we show that the interpretation of this law from dynamo models is not a simple task. It is demonstrated that the period is (unsurprisingly) sensitive to the precise type of non-linearity employed. Moreover the calculation of the wave-speed of plane-wave solutions does not (as was previously supposed) give an indication of the magnetic period in a more realistic dynamo model, as the changes in length-scale of solutions are not easily captured by this approach. Progress can be made, however, by considering a realistic two-dimensional model, in which the radial length-scale of waves is included. We show that it is possible in this case to derive a more robust relation between cycle period and dynamo number. For all the non-linearities considered in the most realistic model, the magnetic cycle period is a decreasing function of IDI (the amplitude of the dynamo number). However, discriminating between different non-linearities is difficult in this case and care must therefore be taken before advancing explanations for the magnetic periods of stars.

Tobias, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Evidence for a Second Martian Dynamo from Electron Reflection Magnetometry

Present-day Mars does not possess an active core dynamo and associated global magnetic field. However, the discovery of intensely magnetized crust in Mars Southern hemisphere implies that a Martian dynamo has existed in the past. Resolving the history of the Martian core dynamo is important for understanding the evolution of the planet's interior. Moreover, because the global magnetic field provided by an active dynamo can shield the atmosphere from erosion by the solar wind, it may have influenced past Martian climate. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Lillis, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity cycles by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Synergy↗

NASA NTRS2018

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Toward 2D Dynamo Models Calibrated by Global 3D Relativistic Accretion Disk Simulations

Two-dimensional models assuming axisymmetry are an economical way to explore the long-term evolution of black hole accretion disks, but they are only realistic if the feedback of the nonaxisymmetric turbulence on the mean momentum and magnetic fields is incorporated. Dynamo terms added to the 2D induction equation should be calibrated to 3D MHD simulations. For generality, the dynamo tensors should be calibrated as functions of local variables rather than explicit functions of spatial coordinates in a particular basis. In this paper, we study the feedback of non-axisymmetric features on the 2D mean fields using a global 3D, relativistic, Cartesian simulation from the Illinois GRMHD code. We introduce new methods for estimating overall dynamo alpha and turbulent diffusivity effects as well as measures of the dominance of non-axisymmetric components of energies and fluxes within the disk interior. We attempt closure models of the dynamo EMF using least squares fitting, considering both models where coefficient tensors are functions of space and more global, covariant models. None of these models are judged satisfactory, but we are able to draw conclusions on what sorts of generalizations are and are not promising.

Matthew D Duez↗

NASA NTRS2013

SpF: Enabling Petascale Performance for Pseudospectral Dynamo Models

Pseudospectral (PS) methods possess a number of characteristics (e.g., efficiency, accuracy, natural boundary conditions) that are extremely desirable for dynamo models. Unfortunately, dynamo models based upon PS methods face a number of daunting challenges, which include exposing additional parallelism, leveraging hardware accelerators, exploiting hybrid parallelism, and improving the scalability of global memory transposes. Although these issues are a concern for most models, solutions for PS methods tend to require far more pervasive changes to underlying data and control structures. Further, improvements in performance in one model are difficult to transfer to other models, resulting in significant duplication of effort across the research community.We have developed an extensible software framework for pseudospectral methods called SpF that is intended to enable extreme scalability and optimal performance. High-level abstractions provided by SpF unburden applications of the responsibility of managing domain decomposition and load balance while reducing the changes in code required to adapt to new computing architectures. The key design concept in SpF is that each phase of the numerical calculation is partitioned into disjoint numerical kernels that can be performed entirely in-processor. The granularity of domain-decomposition provided by SpF is only constrained by the data-locality requirements of these kernels. SpF builds on top of optimized vendor libraries for common numerical operations such as transforms, matrix solvers, etc., but can also be configured to use open source alternatives for portability. SpF includes several alternative schemes for global data redistribution and is expected to serve as an ideal testbed for further research into optimal approaches for different network architectures.In this presentation, we will describe the basic architecture of SpF as well as preliminary performance data and experience with adapting legacy dynamo codes. We will conclude with a discussion of planned extensions to SpF that will provide pseudospectral applications with additional flexibility with regard to time integration, linear solvers, and discretization in the radial direction.

Pseudospectral (PS)↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Role of DYNAMO in Situ Observations in Improving NASA Ceres-like Daily Surface and Atmospheric Radiative Flux Estimates

The daily surface and atmospheric radiative fluxes from NASA Clouds and the Earths RadiantEnergy System (CERES) Synoptic 1 degree (SYN1deg) Ed3A are among the most widely used data to studycloud-radiative feedback. The CERES SYN1deg data are based on Fu-Liou radiative transfer computations thatuse specific humidity (Q) and air temperature (T) from NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)reanalyses as inputs and are therefore subject to the quality of those fields. This study uses in situ Q and Tobservations collected during the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign toaugment the input stream used in the NASA GMAO reanalysis and assess the impact on the CERES dailysurface and atmospheric longwave estimates. The results show that the assimilation of DYNAMOobservations considerably improves the vertical profiles of analyzed Q and T over and near DYNAMO stationsby moistening and warming the lower troposphere and upper troposphere and drying and cooling themid-upper troposphere. As a result of these changes in Q and T, the computed CERES daily surface downwardlongwave flux increases by about 5 W m(exp -2), due mainly to the warming and moistening in the lowertroposphere; the computed daily top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave radiation increases by2-3 W m(exp -2) during dry periods only. Correspondingly, the estimated local atmospheric longwave radiativecooling enhances by about 5 W m(exp -2) (7-8 W m(exp -2)) during wet (dry) periods. These changes reduce the bias inthe CERES SYN1deg-like daily longwave estimates at both the TOA and surface and represent animprovement over the DYNAMO region.

DYNAMO↗

NASA NTRS1975

Dynamo generation in Mercury

Models of the interior and thermal evolution of Mercury calculated by Siegfried and Solomon (1974) using Lewis' (1972) cosmochemical calculations to constrain the composition are tested for four necessary conditions for MHD dynamo generation. It is shown that dynamo generation requires at least a partially fluid interior, an energy source that drives a flow of core fluid relative to the rigidly rotating planet, a magnetic-field diffusion time in excess of the characteristic fluid-flow time scale, and a fluid flow of sufficient complexity to satisfy Cowling's (1934) theorem. It is concluded that a literal interpretation of Lewis' calculations implies that dynamo generation in Mercury is improbable. Generation would be possible only if the metallic core were contaminated with substantial amounts of radioactive material.

Stevenson, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

The geomagnetic dynamos of the moon and Venus - Comparisons with a recent scaling law

The evidence for the existence of an ancient lunar dynamo is reviewed along with the data on the magnetic field of Venus. These facts are then discussed in terms of Dolginov's scaling law for predicting magnetic moment of planets with a precession-driven dynamo. The precessional dynamo mechanism of Dolginov comes close to predicting the inferred magnetic moment of Venus, but this is viewed as a coincidence, for the Dolginov scaling law is based on an ad hoc force balance for which little justification is given. It assumes that the interiors of the planets have similar densities, conductivities, and precessional characteristics, whereas they clearly do not.

Russell, C. T.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Models of an early lunar dynamo

The hypothesis that a dynamo once existed in the moon, and hence was the source of lunar paleomagnetism, is tested using a model for the global thermoremanent magnetization of spherical lithospheres. Various models of an ancient lunar dipole field are used which incorporate intensity variations and reversals, and which are consistent with lunar sample paleointensities. It is found that non-reversing lunar dynamos which have simple exponential decay histories beginning at 4.6 b.y. ago are inconsistent with this limit, unless the moon has been thoroughly demagnetized to a depth of tens of kilometers by impacts or other processes. An early lunar dynamo cannot be excluded by global scalar measurements unless the permanent lunar dipole moment is shown to be significantly less than 10 to the 13th power G/cu cm by future spacecraft measurements, which may be technologically impossible; vector measurements of lunar magnetic anomalies over the whole moon offer a possibility of determining the source of the field which magnetized the lunar crust.

Srnka, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1980

The energy coupling function and the power generated by the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo

A solar wind parameter epsilon, known as the energy coupling function, has been shown to correlate with the power consumption in the magnetosphere. It is shown in the present paper that the parameter epsilon can be identified semi-quantitatively as the dynamo power delivered from the solar wind to an open magnetosphere. This identification not only provides a theoretical basis for the energy coupling function, but also constitutes an observational verification of the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo along the magnetotail. Moreover, one can now conclude that a substorm results when the dynamo power exceeds 10 to the 18th erg/s.

Kan, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The flux ejection dynamo effect

The mean-field effects of cyclonic convection become increasingly complex when the cyclonic rotation exceeds 1/2 pi. Net helicity is not required, with negative turbulent diffusion for instance, appearing in mirror symmetric turbulence. This paper points out a new dynamo effect arising in convective cells with strong asymmetry in the rotation of updrafts as against downdrafts. The creation of new magnetic flux arises from the ejection of reserve flux through the open boundary of the dynamo region. It is unlike the familiar alpha-effect in that individual components of the field may be amplified independently. Several formal examples are provided to illustrate the effect. Occurrence in nature depends upon the existence of fluid rotations of the order of pi in the convective updrafts. The flux ejection dynamo may possibly contribute to the generation of field in the convective core of earth and in the convective zone of the sun and other stars.

Parker, E. N.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Convective dynamos for rotating stars

Global dynamo theory is applied to the problem of why some stars have field reversing dynamos, and others do not. It is argued that convectively driven dynamos are the most likely source of magnetic fields in stars that have convection zones.

Gilman, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Nonlinear dynamo oscillations

The stability of steady equilibrium amplitudes of magnetic fields generated by convection flows is investigated. Two cases are considered in detail, for which steady solutions are available from the previous work of Busse (1973) and Busse (1977). In the first case instability occurs primarily because of magnetic flux expulsion at high magnetic Reynolds numbers. In the second case the change in the velocity field caused by the Lorentz force enhances dynamo action. This subcritical finite amplitude dynamo is potentially unstable. In typical cases the nonlinear dynamo oscillations that replace the steady equilibrium solutions are investigated by numerical integration.

Busse, F. H.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Magnetic dipole moment estimates for an ancient lunar dynamo

The four measured planetary magnetic moments combined with a recent theoretical prediction for dynamo magnetic fields suggests that no dynamo exists in the moon's interior today. For the moon to have had a magnetic moment in the past of sufficient strength to account for at least some of the lunar rock magnetism, the rotation would have been about twenty times faster than it is today and the radius of the fluid, conducting core must have been about 750 km. The argument depends on the validity of the Busse solution to the validity of the MHD problem of planetary dynamos.

Anderson, K. A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Generation of a dynamo magnetic field in a protoplanetary accretion disk

A new computational technique is developed that allows realistic calculations of dynamo magnetic field generation in disk geometries corresponding to protoplanetary and protostellar accretion disks. The approach is of sufficient generality to allow, in the future, a wide class of accretion disk problems to be solved. Here, basic modes of a disk dynamo are calculated. Spatially localized oscillatory states are found to occur in Keplerain disks. A physical interpretation is given that argues that spatially localized fields of the type found in these calculations constitute the basic modes of a Keplerian disk dynamo.

Stepinski, T.↗