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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Extended Low Load Boiler Operation to Improve Performance and Economics of an Existing Coal Fired Power Plant (Final Report)

The overall goal is to improve the performance and economics of existing coal fired power plants by extending low load boiler operation to lower loads than is currently achievable. The objective of this program is to develop and validate sensor hardware and analytical algorithms to lower plant operating expenses (OPEX) for the currently operating pulverized coal utility boiler fleet. Coal fired utility boilers are increasingly under grid dispatch pressure. In some cases, the coal fired cost of generation is noncompetitive with respect to natural gas generation and subsidized renewable sources. To remain profitable and remain fully compliant with existing environmental regulations, the installed coal fired fleet must find technologies which allow it to move into a more flexible cyclic load dispatch model. Today the installed coal fired utility fleet must be cost of generation competitive, fully emissions compliant, and responsive to the variability inherent in renewable energy generation sources. In the Phase I of the project, GE Steam Power, Inc. (GE) performed modeling of different operating scenarios for low load operation using an existing full plant dynamic model developed for a 660MW steam power plant. Sensors and analytic algorithms to enable a stable and steady coal supply for low load pulverizer operation were identified and tested at the Pulverizer Development Facility (PDF) at GE’s Clean Energy Center in Bloomfield, Connecticut. Sensors and analytic algorithms to enable stable combustion for low load operation were identified and tested at the 15 MWth Industrial Scale Burner facility (ISBF) at GE’s Clean Energy Center. A concept was developed to test the sensors and control algorithms, down selected after testing, at a full-scale coal fired power plant. A budget estimate was then developed, and the concept was implemented at an existing utility power plant. The specific objectives of the experimental work were to: • Identify and select sensors and analytic algorithms for monitoring coal pulverizer operation at lower loads to provide stable operation and appropriate coal fineness at lower coal throughput; Identify and select sensors and analytic algorithms for a Boiler Flame Stability Monitor to better balance air and fuel at each burner. This enables a reduction in a coal boiler’s safe low load power level while maintaining stable flame characteristics; Develop a concept in Phase I for low load operation of a full-scale power plant and develop a budget estimate for testing and execute the test plan at an existing plant in Phase II; Validate the capability of the extended low load boiler system to extend the minimum load operating point in a safe and reliable manner on an existing full-scale utility boiler. At the completion of this experimental study, GE has developed a set of sensors and analytic algorithms, down selected after testing, that have the potential to enable safe low load operation of a utility boiler. GE has also identified a host site for testing these identified sensors and analytic algorithms. GE has generated a full set of deliverables that provide sufficient information to proceed with the next step of testing at a host site. This includes a potential host site and budget estimate for concept testing at host site. In the Phase II of the project, a series of field tests were completed to validate the extended low load boiler operation, which consisted of detailed engineering, installation, commissioning, and testing the additional sensors and analytics for the coal-fired combustion system on an existing full-scale utility boiler. The optimization work has been supported by the host plant and endorsed by their engineering and operation staff.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

An FEM-Based Peridynamic Model for Failure Analysis of Unidirectional Fiber-Reinforced Laminates

To predict the mixed damage modes of unidirectional fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) laminates under dynamic loading, an FEM-based peridynamic model is introduced in this paper. Based on its geometric structure and material composition, a long fiber lamina is considered a transversely isotropic medium as a result of homogenization at the meso-scale. The laminated structure is modeled by stacking surface mesh layers with arbitrary fiber angles along the thickness direction. The peridynamic bonds between Gauss points connect the separated elements. These bonds are classified as inner-layer bonds and inter-layer bonds. To represent the anisotropy of a laminate, the micro-elastic modulus of the inner-layer and inter-layer bonds is calculated from the anisotropic engineering material constants separately. To capture complex failure behaviors of laminate structures, an empirical damage model is proposed for the tension/ compression breakage of peridynamic bonds. This damage model can control the in-plane and delamination failure process. Finally, benchmark tests are conducted to validate the elastic response of laminates under dynamic loading. In terms of damage analysis, the proposed model can capture the complex damage modes and resistive force of laminate structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Alfalfa Virtual Building Service: Software Engineering Best Practices Applied to Runtime Interaction with Building Energy Models

Buildings are active participants in increasingly complex energy systems. Building Energy Modeling (BEM) has a key role to play in planning and de-risking an equitable energy transition, with BEM-backed "virtual buildings" critical path for diverse applications that include workforce training tools, Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) experimentation to study equipment performance under a range of conditions, Control-Hardware-in-the-Loop (CHIL) experimentation to de-risk commercial control implementations at equipment through grid orchestration levels, and integration of dynamic load profiles into grid modeling tools for energy system experimentation at the urban scale. Modeling requirements vary across these applications, but many software engineering tasks do not. The Alfalfa Virtual Building Service (AVBS, see https://github.com/NREL/alfalfa/wiki) is an open-source web service that solves these common tasks robustly in one place, providing a foundational platform for power users to bootstrap their own applications. AVBS abstracts the specifics of runtime interaction with OpenStudio, Modelica, and Spawn of EnergyPlus models behind a unified REST API. Additionally, AVBS provides resources for cloud deployment and scaling to 100s of parallel simulations, a growing library of modular Operational Technology (OT) integrations for emulation of real-world interfaces, and scripts to automate the population of communities of virtual buildings from URBANopt, ResStock and ComStock.

building automation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal and electric multidomain dynamic model for integration of power grid distribution with behind-the-meter devices

As renewable energy sources like solar and wind power become more integrated into the grid, coordinated control of behind-the-meter devices is crucial for enhancing grid flexibility and reliability and for meeting cost targets, with standardized models being developed to support this transition. The increasing flexibility and uncertainty of integrated renewable energy grids, along with interactions between various subsystems, make traditional steady-state modeling insufficient to capture transient and dynamic behaviors. Current models (e.g., composite load and battery equivalent models) focus on thermodynamic or electrical characteristics but overlook critical electromechanical interactions. This limits the ability to share performance information for grid services and hampers fast dynamic simulations. In addition, motor stalling is usually triggered by a fault event and attributed to the characteristics of the mechanical torque of the motor, resulting in absorption of a large amount of reactive power during the stalling period. Further, this significant withdrawal of reactive power will deteriorate the dynamic voltage stability of power grids and cause delayed voltage recovery. Therefore, an in-depth modeling of the thermodynamics or mechanical torque is essential to study the impacts of the realistic torque characteristics of those behind-the-meter devices on power system voltage stability. This study developed a dynamic multidomain model for building HVAC systems, such as air-source heat pumps, to simulate their thermal and electrical responses to grid transients. The model can accurately predict power metrics with a mean absolute percentage error of 10%, by validating against with power system computer-aided design performance data. Case studies demonstrate the model capability of capturing the transient response to sudden voltage changes, rapid load fluctuations, and system shutdowns respectively. During a sudden voltage drop (30% for 0.1s), a fully loaded heat pump’s motor speed dropped, continued declining, and shut down after 3.6s, with severe power oscillations and a torque spike. A partially loaded unit experienced temporary oscillations but stabilized. Under higher building loads, compressor speed increased from 64% to 100%, with power and torque rising before stabilizing. In safety-triggered shutdowns, power decreased after minor fluctuations, and torque briefly spiked before dropping to zero.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

MoorDyn V2: New Capabilities in Mooring System Components and Load Cases

MoorDyn, an open-source mooring dynamics model, is being expanded with capabilities for additional mooring system features and load cases. As floating wind turbine technology matures, mooring systems are becoming more sophisticated and more complex scenarios need to be considered in the design process. Mooring systems may have synthetic line materials, ballast/buoyancy bodies along the lines, or interconnections between platforms. Failure modes may involve multiple cascading line failures that depend on mooring system dynamics. Features recently added to MoorDyn aim to address these emerging needs. MoorDyn’s linear elasticity model has been supplemented to support user-defined stress-strain curves, which can be adjusted to represent synthetic mooring materials. Rigid six-degree-of-freedom bodies in the mooring system can now be modeled using two new model objects. “Rod” objects provide an option for rigid cylindrical bodies. They use the existing Morison equation-based hydrodynamics model and can be connected to mooring lines at either end. “Body” objects provide a generic six-degree-of-freedom rigid-body representation based on a lumped-parameter model of translational and rotational properties. Rod objects can be added to Body objects and mooring lines can be attached at any location, allowing a wide variety of submerged structures to be integrated into the mooring system. Lastly, a means of dynamically simulating mooring line failures has been implemented. These new features, currently in the C++ version of MoorDyn, are described and then demonstrated on a two-turbine shared-mooring array. A qualitative view of the results suggests the new features are functioning as expected.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient Region of Attraction Characterization for Control and Stabilization of Load Tap Changer Dynamics

In this article, we study the monitoring and control of long-term voltage stability considering load tap changer (LTC) dynamics. We show that under generic conditions, the LTC dynamics admit a unique stable equilibrium. For the stable equilibrium, we characterize an explicit inner approximation of its largest region of attraction (ROA). Compared to existing results, the computational complexity of the ROA characterization is drastically reduced. We propose a quadratically constrained linear program formulation for the ROA characterization problem. In addition, we formulate a second-order cone program for online voltage stability monitoring and control exploiting the proposed ROA characterization. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed formulations on the ROA characterization and stability monitoring and control using a standard IEEE test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tri-State/NETL/Sandia/LBNL IDAES CRADA (Final Report)

The primary goals of this work are to develop recommendations aimed at: (1) reducing the minimum load achievable by a partner plant, (2) improving reliability issues that may result from extended low-load operations, and (3) improving overall efficiency, especially at partial loads. Steady state and dynamic models will also be deployed to a partner plant.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Non-linear Wire Rope Isolator Model to Enhance Transportation Simulation of Fragile Equipment

Abstract Introduction Wire rope isolators are often used as means of vibration isolation for the transportation of fragile machine equipment. When deployed as suspension systems in a transportation scenario, a simple spring–damper model is often used to predict the dynamic loads that act on the structure being transported. However, this simple model has proved to be too simplistic to be used in the development of an accurate numerical model that can predict the vibration levels experienced by the inner components of fragile equipment during its transportation. This paper describes the experimental tests conducted on a wire rope isolator used for the transportation of the prototype SSR1 cryomodule. Materials and methods A hysteretic Bouc–Wen model has been used to analytically describe the force–deformation relationship of the wire rope isolators. The developed model of the isolator has been implemented in a larger model to simulate the actual transportation of the prototype SSR1 cryomodule, a section of the new PIP-II linear accelerator under construction at Fermilab. A series of multibody dynamic simulations with rigid and flexible components was used to numerically determine the acceleration of some critical components. Results and conclusions An actual experimental transportation was simulated using two numerical models: the developed Bouc–Wen model and a conventional spring–damper model. It is shown how the Bouc–Wen formulation of the isolator characteristics drastically improves the correspondence between experimental and simulated results if compared to a spring–damper model, especially in the range of 0–30 Hz which is the most critical for transportation problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding early HIV-1 rebound dynamics following antiretroviral therapy interruption: The importance of effector cell expansion

Most people living with HIV-1 experience rapid viral rebound once antiretroviral therapy is interrupted; however, a small fraction remain in viral remission for an extended duration. Understanding the factors that determine whether viral rebound is likely after treatment interruption can enable the development of optimal treatment regimens and therapeutic interventions to potentially achieve a functional cure for HIV-1. We built upon the theoretical framework proposed by Conway and Perelson to construct dynamic models of virus-immune interactions to study factors that influence viral rebound dynamics. We evaluated these models using viral load data from 24 individuals following antiretroviral therapy interruption. The best-performing model accurately captures the heterogeneity of viral dynamics and highlights the importance of the effector cell expansion rate. Our results show that post-treatment controllers and non-controllers can be distinguished based on the effector cell expansion rate in our models. Furthermore, these results demonstrate the potential of using dynamic models incorporating an effector cell response to understand early viral rebound dynamics post-antiretroviral therapy interruption.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

OCHRE: The Object-oriented, Controllable, High-resolution Residential Energy Model for Dynamic Integration Studies

Electrification and the growth of distributed energy resources (DERs), including flexible loads, are changing the energy landscape of electric distribution systems and creating new challenges and opportunities for electric utilities. Changes in demand profiles require improvements in distribution system load models, which have not historically accounted for device controllability or impacts on customer comfort. Although building modeling research has focused on these features, there is a need to incorporate them into distribution load models that include DERs and can be used to study grid-interactive buildings. In this paper, we present the Object-oriented, Controllable, High-resolution Residential Energy (OCHRE) model. OCHRE is a controllable thermal-electric residential energy model that captures building thermal dynamics, integrates grid-dependent electrical behavior, contains models for common DERs and end-use loads, and simulates at a time resolution down to 1 minute. It includes models for space heaters, air conditioners, water heaters, electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and batteries that are externally controllable and integrated in a co-simulation framework. Using a proposed zero energy ready community in Colorado, we co-simulate a distribution grid and 498 all-electric homes with a diverse set of efficiency levels and equipment properties. We show that controllable devices can reduce peak demand within a neighborhood by up to 73% during a critical peak period without sacrificing occupant comfort. We also demonstrate the importance of modeling load diversity at a high time resolution when quantifying power and voltage fluctuations across a distribution system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A quantitative model used to compare within-host SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV dynamics provides insights into the pathogenesis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2

The scientific community is focused on developing antiviral therapies to mitigate the impacts of the ongoing novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. This will be facilitated by improved understanding of viral dynamics within infected hosts. Here, using a mathematical model in combination with published viral load data, we compare within-host viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with analogous dynamics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Our quantitative analyses using a mathematical model revealed that the within-host reproduction number at symptom onset of SARS-CoV-2 was statistically significantly larger than that of MERS-CoV and similar to that of SARS-CoV. In addition, the time from symptom onset to the viral load peak for SARS-CoV-2 infection was shorter than those of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. These findings suggest the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection by antivirals. We further used the viral dynamics model to predict the efficacy of potential antiviral drugs that have different modes of action. The efficacy was measured by the reduction in the viral load area under the curve (AUC). Our results indicate that therapies that block de novo infection or virus production are likely to be effective if and only if initiated before the viral load peak (which appears 2–3 days after symptom onset), but therapies that promote cytotoxicity of infected cells are likely to have effects with less sensitivity to the timing of treatment initiation. Furthermore, combining a therapy that promotes cytotoxicity and one that blocks de novo infection or virus production synergistically reduces the AUC with early treatment. Our unique modeling approach provides insights into the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 and may be useful for development of antiviral therapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The role of micro-inertia on the shock structure in porous metals

The behavior of porous materials under shock loading is a multi-scale problem bridging orders of magnitude across the macroscale geometry and the microscale pores. Under static loading, this problem is well understood, relating mechanisms of pore closure and crushing to the equivalent macroscale models. The dynamic response of porous solids under shock loading is related to the effects of viscoplasticity and micro-acceleration fields around the void boundaries. The significance of the micro-inertia effects in modeling the dynamic behavior of porous materials remains an open question. In this work, an experimental investigation on closed-cell porous aluminum with small porosity provides the evidence for the first time of micro-inertia’s fundamental role in describing the shock structure in these materials. Materials with different levels of porosity were manufactured using a modified process of additive manufacturing to achieve a mean pore size below 50$\mu$m. Plate impact experiments on porous aluminum samples were conducted at pressures in the range of 2 to 11 GPa. The structure of the steady shock was characterized as a function of porosity and shown to validate behavior revealed by an analytical approach (Czarnota et al. [J. Mech. Phys. Solids 107 (2017)]), highlighting the fundamental role of micro-inertia effects in such cases.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Distributed Wind Turbine Controls Series: Part 2-Wind Energy in Isolated Grids – Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL)

In an isolated grid, wind turbines are typically deployed to provide energy to maximize energy production, reduce diesel-fuel consumption, reduce carbon emissions, and reduce costs for energy and fuel transportation. However, in addition to solely providing energy to the power system, wind turbines contain rotating masses and inverter-based controls that can enable various reliability and resilience services through advance controls. As part of the Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL) this paper demonstrates, through desktop simulations, advanced wind turbine controls that can be employed to support higher contributions of wind in isolated grids, and to demonstrate ways that wind can play a role in supporting stability of an isolated grid. This isolated grid used in these desktop simulations is comprised of a wind turbine (600 kW), solar PV (430 kW), battery energy storage system (1 MW/1MWh), a simulated diesel generator (2 MW) and various types of loads (critical, dynamic). We developed a model of the subsystems in MATLAB/Simulink and validated them with available data from real-world components on NREL's Flatirons Campus. These validated models are then configured for various case studies. We compare the output of the desktop simulation with a baseline case with the diesel generator. Active and reactive power control of the wind turbine can help improve frequency and voltage responses in the isolated grid, respectively. By utilizing a small integrated battery energy storage system in the DC-link of the wind turbine, we also demonstrate that wind turbines can help blackstart a critical load comparable to its rated power and support other renewables (e.g. solar PV) come online and pick up an additional load. This report illustrates some of these reliability and resilience services a wind turbine can provide in an isolated grid.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project: City and Borough of Sitka, Alaska - Modeling and Controls Assistance and Renewable Energy Resource Assessment [Slides]

This presentation provides a summary of the ETIPP project objectives and findings for Sitka, Alaska, including sizing of wind penetration, dynamic models, and analysis of efficiency of load control, stability and grid control impacts of wind capacity expansions and locations, and wind-hydro control coordination.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

HYBRID Modeling of DETAIL Experimental Facility

Idaho National Laboratory continues to be at the forefront of advanced reactor systems and integrated energy systems research. Through the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) and Microreactor Agile Non-nuclear Test Bed (MAGNET) experiments in the Dynamic Energy Transport and Innovation Laboratory (DETAIL) within the Engineering Systems Laboratory, a mix of digital and physical testing systems can explore the operation of thermally and electrically integrated systems. Modeling of these systems has been done using the HYBRID modeling repository of the Integrated Energy Systems program. DETAIL also contains high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) units to produce hydrogen and generate the load imposed on MAGNET and TEDS. The dynamic modeling capabilities within the IES program describe the DETAIL components as-built and can be used to evaluate controls, process flows, and overall system conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Potential Impacts of Dynamic Electricity Pricing in California: Load Shape and Customer Bill Impacts Under Elastic Customer Response

The increasing penetration of renewable energy in California has intensified grid management challenges, exemplified by the “duck curve” and the resulting need for steep ramping and curtailment of renewables. To address these issues, dynamic electricity tariffs that vary in near-real time are being considered to incentivize customers to shift demand and support the grid. This study extends previous work on the bill impacts of such tariffs in the absence of load response by quantifying the system-level and customer impacts of load response based on customer price elasticity. Customer-level load response modeling was conducted using meter data from 411,000 customers across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Customer demand elasticity was estimated using literature-based values, with scenarios ranging from low to high elasticity, including an automation-enhanced scenario. Results indicate that universal adoption of, and response to, dynamic tariffs can significantly reduce peak net load (by 15%) and maximum ramping requirements (by 20%) with moderate elasticity, delivering demand response resources comparable to or exceeding current programs at all elasticity levels. Bill analysis shows that, when responding elastically to dynamic prices, most non-PV customers experience modest savings, while PV customers may see higher effective rates due to lower compensation for exports during low-price periods. Emissions analysis reveals a reduction in per-kWh emissions system-wide, with a total absolute load increase of 2% accompanied by a negligible absolute emissions increase. The study concludes that while dynamic tariffs offer substantial grid benefits, customer bill savings under modeled response behaviors may be too modest to drive widespread adoption without additional incentives or enabling technologies. Future research should model flexible loads and advanced control technologies with greater fidelity to better represent the potential opportunities of dynamic tariffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and Analysis of DC Microgrids as Stochastic Hybrid Systems

This study proposes a method of predicting the influence of random load behavior on the dynamics of dc microgrids and distribution systems. This is accomplished by combining stochastic load models and deterministic microgrid models. Together, these elements constitute a stochastic hybrid system. The resulting model enables straightforward calculation of dynamic state moments, which are used to assess the probability of desirable operating conditions. Specific consideration is given to systems based on the dual active bridge (DAB) topology. Bounds are derived for the probability of zero voltage switching (ZVS) in DAB converters. A simple example is presented to demonstrate how these bounds may be used to improve ZVS performance as an optimization problem. In conclusion, predictions of state moment dynamics and ZVS probability assessments are verified through comparisons to Monte Carlo simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗