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Results for “distributionally robust optimization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2011

Chance-Constrained Guidance With Non-Convex Constraints

Missions to small bodies, such as comets or asteroids, require autonomous guidance for descent to these small bodies. Such guidance is made challenging by uncertainty in the position and velocity of the spacecraft, as well as the uncertainty in the gravitational field around the small body. In addition, the requirement to avoid collision with the asteroid represents a non-convex constraint that means finding the optimal guidance trajectory, in general, is intractable. In this innovation, a new approach is proposed for chance-constrained optimal guidance with non-convex constraints. Chance-constrained guidance takes into account uncertainty so that the probability of collision is below a specified threshold. In this approach, a new bounding method has been developed to obtain a set of decomposed chance constraints that is a sufficient condition of the original chance constraint. The decomposition of the chance constraint enables its efficient evaluation, as well as the application of the branch and bound method. Branch and bound enables non-convex problems to be solved efficiently to global optimality. Considering the problem of finite-horizon robust optimal control of dynamic systems under Gaussian-distributed stochastic uncertainty, with state and control constraints, a discrete-time, continuous-state linear dynamics model is assumed. Gaussian-distributed stochastic uncertainty is a more natural model for exogenous disturbances such as wind gusts and turbulence than the previously studied set-bounded models. However, with stochastic uncertainty, it is often impossible to guarantee that state constraints are satisfied, because there is typically a non-zero probability of having a disturbance that is large enough to push the state out of the feasible region. An effective framework to address robustness with stochastic uncertainty is optimization with chance constraints. These require that the probability of violating the state constraints (i.e., the probability of failure) is below a user-specified bound known as the risk bound. An example problem is to drive a car to a destination as fast as possible while limiting the probability of an accident to 10(exp -7). This framework allows users to trade conservatism against performance by choosing the risk bound. The more risk the user accepts, the better performance they can expect.

FROM↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Reinforcement Learning Approach to Parameter Selection for Distributed Optimal Power Flow

With the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources, distributed optimization algorithms have attracted significant attention for power systems applications due to their potential for superior scalability, privacy, and robustness to a single point-of-failure. The Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) is a popular distributed optimization algorithm; however, its convergence performance is highly dependent on the selection of penalty parameters, which are usually chosen heuristically. In this work, we use reinforcement learning (RL) to develop an adaptive penalty parameter selection policy for alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) problem solved via ADMM with the goal of minimizing the number of iterations until convergence. We train our RL policy using deep Q-learning and show that this policy can result in significantly accelerated convergence (up to a 59% reduction in the number of iterations compared to existing, curvatureinformed penalty parameter selection methods). Furthermore, we show that our RL policy demonstrates promise for generalizability, performing well under unseen loading schemes as well as under unseen losses of lines and generators (up to a 50% reduction in iterations). This work thus provides a proof-of-concept for using RL for parameter selection in ADMM for power systems applications.

alternating current optimal power flow↗

DOE OSTI2022

Arbitrage and Capacity Firming in Coordination with Day-Ahead Bidding of a Hybrid PV Plant: Preprint

A hybrid PV plant (HPP) combines a photovoltaic (PV) plant with a battery energy storage system (BESS), which is considered a promising step towards the future of renewable power plants by the U.S. Department of Energy. When the renewable penetration reaches a significant level, a hybrid PV plant can bid in as a controllable thermal plant in the future electricity market. In this study, a bidding and BESS scheduling model is proposed for the HPP. The robust optimization (RO) technique has been utilized to identify the worst-case scenario of uncertainties during the bidding process. To address the overly conservative issue of the single-stage RO, we have decoupled the BESS schedule for arbitrage and PV capacity firming by a two-stage RO formulation. By comparing the output of single-stage RO and two-stage RO, the two-stage RO bids and schedules in a more aggressive manner, which increases the income of HPP. Also, the penalty of under-generation is considered in our model so that the day-ahead bidding decision and arbitrage schedules can be adjusted based on the potential UNDER-GENERATION penalty. Because the proposed model is non-convex and contains multi-stages, the Column-and-Constraint Generation (C&CG) algorithm is applied to the model as the solution. The proposed model has shown better economic performance compared to a state-of-art single-stage bidding method in case studies.

BESS scheduling↗

DOE OSTI2026

Microstructural Engineering of Cu-Rich Nanoprecipitate formation in NiCoFeCrCu0.12 High-Entropy Alloy via Severe Plastic Deformation for Enhanced Irradiation Tolerance

This study demonstrates a defect-engineering approach for controlling Cu-rich precipitates in FeNiCrCoCu0.2 high-entropy alloys (Cu-HEAs), delivering a novel pathway for next-generation nuclear reactor materials with superior irradiation resistance. This work establishes that severe plastic deformation (SPD) processing via Shear Assisted Processing and Extrusion (ShAPE) and Friction Stir Layer Deposition (FSLD) creates dense dislocation networks and subgrain boundaries that fundamentally alter precipitation behavior under identical thermal treatments. Atom probe tomography (APT) indicates that SPD produces a metastable, atomically homogeneous solid solution that, upon moderate heat treatment (500°C/10 hour), develops remarkedly stronger Cu clustering than the as-cast counterpart. High-temperature exposure (800°C/100 h) produces near-pure Cu precipitates (~90 at% Cu) with significantly enhanced defect-sink efficacy in SPD-processed alloys: precipitate sizes of 50-60 nm and number densities of 2.7-3.8 × 10¹7 m?³, compared to 89 nm and 0.44 × 10¹7 m?³ in as-cast materials. Collectively, the findings establish defect-mediated precipitation control as a scalable, high-impact route to tailor sink density and distribution in HEAs, enabling microstructures optimized for irradiation tolerance and mechanical robustness in nuclear reactor environments.

Meher, Subhashish↗

NASA NTRS1993

Advanced propulsion engine assessment based on a cermet reactor

A preferred Pratt & Whitney conceptual Nuclear Thermal Rocket Engine (NTRE) has been designed based on the fundamental NASA priorities of safety, reliability, cost, and performance. The basic philosophy underlying the design of the XNR2000 is the utilization of the most reliable form of ultrahigh temperature nuclear fuel and development of a core configuration which is optimized for uniform power distribution, operational flexibility, power maneuverability, weight, and robustness. The P&W NTRE system employs a fast spectrum, cermet fueled reactor configured in an expander cycle to ensure maximum operational safety. The cermet fuel form provides retention of fuel and fission products as well as high strength. A high level of confidence is provided by benchmark analysis and independent evaluations.

Parsley, Randy C.↗

DOE OSTI2026

There and Back Again: Reimagining Cryogenic Cooling for Scalable Arrays of Dilution Refrigerators for future Quantum Datacenters

While pulse tube cryocoolers enabled the rapid expansion of dilution refrigerator technology over the past two decades, the transition to large-scale quantum systems is now driving a reassessment of the DR’s higher-temperature-stage cooling strategies and how these systems can be effectively scaled in a modular way. Quasi-wet architectures based on centralized cryoplants and forced-flow helium distribution offer compelling advantages in energy efficiency, operational cost, and scalability. With appropriate redundancy, standardized interfaces, and optimized distribution system designs, these architectures will provide a practical and robust path forward for the next generation of quantum computing infrastructure.

Hansen, B. [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

OptiBench: An Optimization Benchmark Tool for Renewable Energy Problems

We propose a benchmark framework and visualization tool, OptiBench, for analyzing the performance of state-of-the-art optimization solvers across a variety of optimization problems in renewable energy research. Our framework is designed from the ground up in the Julia programming language and enables analysis at scale on high performance computing (HPC) systems. Our visualization tool allows effortless evaluation of optimization solver performance, robustness, and accuracy through intuitive plots, e.g., performance profiles, heat maps, and distribution plots. We have tested three benchmark suites relevant to the modeling of renewable energy systems, viz., CUTEst, PGLib-OPF, and WaterTAP water treatment optimization problems. We illustrate benchmarking of CUTEst using OptiBench on the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) HPC Kestrel. Our findings indicate that MA57 HSL linear solver demonstrated the best overall performance for an experimental IPOPT implementation. Our work is ongoing and we intend to add support for more optimization solvers and benchmark test suites in the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

OptiBench: An Optimization Benchmark Tool for Renewable Energy Problems

We propose a benchmark framework and visualization tool, OptiBench, for analyzing the performance of state-of-the-art optimization solvers across a variety of optimization problems in renewable energy research. Our framework is designed from the ground up in the Julia programming language and enables analysis at scale on high performance computing (HPC) systems. Our visualization tool allows effortless evaluation of optimization solver performance, robustness, and accuracy through intuitive plots, e.g., performance profiles, heat maps, and distribution plots. We have tested three benchmark suites relevant to the modeling of renewable energy systems, viz., CUTEst, PGLib-OPF, and WaterTAP water treatment optimization problems. We illustrate benchmarking of CUTEst using OptiBench on the National Laboratory of the Rockies's (NLR) HPC Kestrel. Our findings indicate that MA57 HSL linear solver demonstrated the best overall performance for an experimental IPOPT implementation. Our work is ongoing and we intend to add support for more optimization solvers and benchmark test suites in the future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1993

Physical model-set identification for robust control of flexible structures

An approach to dynamic system identification is presented taking into account the goal of enhancing robust control performance of flexible structures. Identification techniques are derived which take advantage of the physics of structural dynamics and can provide realistic bounds for all potential parameter uncertainties. The developed approach includes input optimization which distributes excitation energy in such a way that the influence of residual uncertainties on robust control performance is reduced.

Karlov, Valeri I.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Under Uncertainty for Conceptual Aircraft Design Leveraging Analytical Gradients

The purpose of this paper is to extend previously demonstrated methodologies for design under uncertainty, leveraging analytical gradients to higher fidelity analysis for use in conceptual aircraft design. Previous work developed methods to generate analytical derivatives through polynomial chaos expansion, eliminating the need to estimate derivatives via complex step or finite difference. In this research, the authors build upon the methods to include physics-based aircraft design codes for aircraft design under uncertainty. This extends the previous work’s case study, which employed analytical aerodynamics and Breguet range estimations for wing design, to a higher fidelity level. In addition, this work extends previous work on interface development between the Uncertainty Quantification with Polynomial Chaos Expansion (UQPCE) software and Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering (MBSA&E) frameworks. This paper will discuss the development work necessary to perform multidisciplinary design under uncertainty as well as demonstrate the mechanics of interfacing UQPCE and conceptual aircraft design tools such as NASA’s Aviary code. In a case study, a conceptual aircraft design under uncertainty was conducted and compared against a traditional deterministic design. When given information about the uncertainty space from UQPCE, the optimizer was able to shape the output distribution and produce a more robust design

UQ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Under Uncertainty for Conceptual Aircraft Design Leveraging Analytical Gradients

UQ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Projective Integral Updates for High-Dimensional Variational Inference

Variational inference is an approximation framework for Bayesian inference that seeks to improve quantified uncertainty in predictions by optimizing a simplified distribution over parameters to stand in for the full posterior. Capturing model variations that remain consistent with training data enables more robust predictions by reducing parameter sensitivity. This work introduces a fixed-point optimization for variational inference that is applicable when every feasible log density can be expressed as a linear combination of functions from a given basis. In such cases, the optimizer becomes a fixed-point of projective integral updates. When the basis spans univariate quadratics in each parameter, the feasible distributions are Gaussian mean-fields and the projective integral updates yield quasi-Newton variational Bayes (QNVB). Other bases and updates are also possible. Since these updates require high-dimensional integration, this work begins by proposing an efficient quasirandom sequence of quadratures for mean-field distributions. Each iterate of the sequence contains two evaluation points that combine to correctly integrate all univariate quadratic functions and, if the mean-field factors are symmetric, all univariate cubics. More importantly, averaging results over short subsequences achieves periodic exactness on a much larger space of multivariate polynomials of quadratic total degree. The corresponding variational updates require four loss evaluations with standard (not second-order) backpropagation to eliminate error terms from over half of all multivariate quadratic basis functions. Furthermore, this integration technique is motivated by first proposing stochastic blocked mean-field quadratures, which may be useful in other contexts. A PyTorch implementation of QNVB allows for better control over model uncertainty during training than competing methods. Experiments demonstrate superior generalizability for multiple learning problems and architectures.

Gaussian mean-field↗

DOE OSTI2025

Large Scale Bilevel Optimization for N-K SCOPF Using Adversarial Robustness

Ensuring a secure dispatch against multiple simultaneous outages has long been desired to maintain grid security in the presence of severe events, such as extreme weather phenomena. Traditionally denoted as N-k security constrained optimal power flow (N-k SCOPF), this problem is intractable to solve due to its size being combinatorial in the number of simultaneous outages and due to the non-convex nature of the AC network constraints. This hinders the use of N-k SCOPF for operating realistic-scale systems. In this paper, we introduce a methodology to scalably solve an AC-feasible dispatch that improves security over k simultaneous outages. Our methodology poses N-k SCOPF as a bilevel optimization problem and solves it using an adversarial robustness approach. We develop new efficient methods to solve each level of the bilevel optimization by employing knowledge of the physics of the underlying system. This yields significant improvements in speed and convergence that enable us to address the N-k SCOPF problem at scale. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by conducting a comprehensive analysis of an N-3 SCOPF for a 500-bus network. Furthermore, we emphasize the ability of our physics-driven techniques to handle larger systems by successfully scaling up to 12,000 buses.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2002

Approach for Input Uncertainty Propagation and Robust Design in CFD Using Sensitivity Derivatives

An implementation of the approximate statistical moment method for uncertainty propagation and robust optimization for quasi 3-D Euler CFD code is presented. Given uncertainties in statistically independent, random, normally distributed input variables, first- and second-order statistical moment procedures are performed to approximate the uncertainty in the CFD output. Efficient calculation of both first- and second-order sensitivity derivatives is required. In order to assess the validity of the approximations, these moments are compared with statistical moments generated through Monte Carlo simulations. The uncertainties in the CFD input variables are also incorporated into a robust optimization procedure. For this optimization, statistical moments involving first-order sensitivity derivatives appear in the objective function and system constraints. Second-order sensitivity derivatives are used in a gradient-based search to successfully execute a robust optimization. The approximate methods used throughout the analyses are found to be valid when considering robustness about input parameter mean values.

Putko, Michele M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enabling Grid-Aware Market Participation of Aggregate Flexible Resources

Increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) within distribution feeders provides unprecedented flexibility at the distribution-transmission interconnection. With the new FERC 2222 order, DER aggregations are allowed to participate in energy market. To enable market participation, these virtual power plants need to provide their generation cost curves. This paper proposes efficient optimization formulations and solution approaches for the characterization of hourly as well as multi-time-step generation cost curves for a distribution system with high penetration of DERs. Network and DER constraints are taken into account when deriving these cost curves, and they enable active distribution systems to bid into the electricity market. The problems of deriving linear and quadratic cost curves are formulated as robust optimization problems and tractable reformulation/solution algorithm are developed to facilitate efficient calculations. The proposed formulations and solution algorithm are validated on a realistic test feeder with high penetration of flexible resources.

aggregated distributed energy resources↗

NASA NTRS2021

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. The combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

Robert S. Schrom↗

DOE OSTI2025

Two-Stage Distributionally Robust Conic Linear Programming over 1-Wasserstein Balls

Here, this paper studies two-stage distributionally robust conic linear programming under constraint uncertainty over type-1 Wasserstein balls. We present optimality conditions for the dual of the worst-case expectation problem, which characterizes worst-case uncertain parameters for its inner maximization problem. This condition offers an alternative proof, a counterexample, and an extension to previous works. Additionally, the condition highlights the potential advantage of a specific distance metric for out-of-sample performance, as exemplified in a numerical study on a facility location problem with demand uncertainty. Furthermore, cutting-plane-based algorithms, equipped with a unified scenario generation framework, are proposed for addressing both unbounded support and second-stage dual feasible regions, with a finite convergence proof under less stringent assumptions.

Wasserstein↗

NASA NTRS2019

Quantum Technologies for UAS (QTech)

Harness the power of quantum technologies to assure the availability of UAS communications against disruptions. Make use of quantum computing (e.g. quantum optimization) and quantum communication (e.g. quantum key distribution) to address the availability cybersecurity challenge. Our approach is three-fold: (1) Utilize quantum optimization algorithms to design robust network with routing redundancy that can respond adaptively to dynamically changing real-time environment and disruptions, (2) Utilize quantum optimization algorithms resource allocation for detection, localization, and tracking of mobile communication disruption agents, (3) Utilize quantum key distribution (QKD) to execute secure key sharing in high data rate optical communication and/or anti-jamming protocols for secure RF communication.

Quantum Computing↗