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DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Engaging with Utilities and Key Stakeholders [Slides]

The Energy to Communities (E2C) peer-learning cohort program provides technical assistance to groups of 15 community entities around a common energy topic over the course of 6 months. Every month, participants join a virtual meeting where they hear from experts and exchange strategies and best practices with their peers. This cohort, "Successful Energy Project Implementation" will explore common challenges in implementing energy projects and learn strategies to turn project plans into reality. Each participant will focus on a local energy project or priority as a cornerstone for their learning throughout the series. This presentation overviews the interconnection process for distributed energy resources and how to engage well with utilities. The workshop will be held on March 25, 2026.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

EJFAT Scientific Perspective

Presented new computing model to the test by deploying the EJFAT system alongside a data-stream processing framework running the production-level CLAS12 event reconstruction application. In this experiment, a continuous stream of CLAS12 Level-1 identified events was processed in real-time using the EJFAT load balancer, distributing the workload across 90 computing nodes located across the U.S. This marks the first-ever large-scale, real-time distributed data stream processing experiment, demonstrating that scientific data-streaming pipelines can efficiently scale across four dimensions, thanks to EJFAT’s advanced hardware and software capabilities.

Gyurjyan, Vardan [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving Transparency in Electric Distribution System Planning to Support Affordability [Slides]

This resource identifies opportunities for communities to participate in the distribution system planning process to achieve their energy goals, including affordability. It begins with background information on the distribution system and distribution system planning, and then focuses on topical areas where communities could focus their engagement (e.g., non-wires alternatives, DER forecast, scenario analysis). The report concludes with illustrative examples of how communities have engaged in distribution system planning. The appendix provides procedural guidance on engagement in utility planning processes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Out-of-Distribution Detection and Radiological Data Monitoring Using Statistical Process Control

Abstract Machine learning (ML) models often fail with data that deviates from their training distribution. This is a significant concern for ML-enabled devices as data drift may lead to unexpected performance. This work introduces a new framework for out of distribution (OOD) detection and data drift monitoring that combines ML and geometric methods with statistical process control (SPC). We investigated different design choices, including methods for extracting feature representations and drift quantification for OOD detection in individual images and as an approach for input data monitoring. We evaluated the framework for both identifying OOD images and demonstrating the ability to detect shifts in data streams over time. We demonstrated a proof-of-concept via the following tasks: 1) differentiating axial vs. non-axial CT images, 2) differentiating CXR vs. other radiographic imaging modalities, and 3) differentiating adult CXR vs. pediatric CXR. For the identification of individual OOD images, our framework achieved high sensitivity in detecting OOD inputs: 0.980 in CT, 0.984 in CXR, and 0.854 in pediatric CXR. Our framework is also adept at monitoring data streams and identifying the time a drift occurred. In our simulations tracking drift over time, it effectively detected a shift from CXR to non-CXR instantly, a transition from axial to non-axial CT within few days, and a drift from adult to pediatric CXRs within a day—all while maintaining a low false positive rate. Through additional experiments, we demonstrate the framework is modality-agnostic and independent from the underlying model structure, making it highly customizable for specific applications and broadly applicable across different imaging modalities and deployed ML models.

Zamzmi, Ghada↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scalable low-loss cryogenic packaging of quantum memories in CMOS-foundry processed photonic chips

Optically linked solid-state quantum memories such as color centers in diamond are a promising platform for distributed quantum information processing and networking. Photonic integrated circuits (PICs) have emerged as a crucial enabling technology for these systems, integrating quantum memories with efficient electrical and optical interfaces in a compact and scalable platform. Packaging these hybrid chips into deployable modules while maintaining low optical loss and resiliency to temperature cycling is a central challenge to their practical use. We demonstrate a packaging method for PICs using surface grating couplers and angle-polished fiber arrays that is robust to temperature cycling, offers scalable channel count, applies to a wide variety of PIC platforms and wavelengths, and offers pathways to automated high-throughput packaging. Using this method, we show optically and electrically packaged quantum memory modules integrating all required qubit controls on chip, operating at millikelvin temperatures with <3 dB losses achievable from fiber to quantum memory for the TE 0 mode at a wavelength of 737 nm.

Bernson, Robert [Tyndall National Institute, Cork ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analytic Neural Network Gaussian Process Enabled Chance-Constrained Voltage Regulation for Active Distribution Systems with PVs, Batteries and EVs

This paper proposes an analytic neural network Gaussian process (NNGP)-based chance-constrained real-time voltage regulation method for active distribution systems with photovoltaics (PVs), batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs). NNGP can utilize historical measurement data to achieve real-time probabilistic node voltage estimation through Bayesian inference. Then, NNGP is fully analytically embedded into the optimal power flow model to perform voltage regulation and adapt to various topological changes. The uncertainties of voltage estimations are easily considered via the chance constraint, and it has been shown that the adoption of this chance constraint can significantly improve the reliability of voltage regulation under various scenarios. The comparison results with other methods, carried out on a real 759-node distribution system located in western Colorado, U.S., show that the proposed method can achieve accurate voltage estimation across different topologies and reliably perform voltage regulation considering PVs, batteries, and EVs.

active distribution systems↗

DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Different Parallel Programming Models in SCALE-Shift Sequences for Criticality and Shielding Applications [Abstract]

The SCALE code system has been widely used for nuclear criticality safety, reactor physics, radiation shielding, source term generation, and inventory analyses by researchers, industry, and regulatory bodies. Although limited support for shared- and distributed-memory parallel processing was introduced via C++ threading, OpenMP, and MPI, a hybrid parallel programming model with both distributed- and shared-memory parallelism has not been fully supported in the SCALE code system.

Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Clustering at Massive Scale

ClaMS provides hierarchical clustering technology for use on massive, high-dimensional datasets that require distributed memory for processing. The algorithm employed is inspired by the popular HDBSCAN algorithm but makes use of computational kernels better suited for distributed computing. ClaMS is built on scalable nearest neighbor graph construction, metric forest completion, and approximate minimum spanning tree techniques.

Stanley, ThomasA [Lawrence Livermore National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Equity-driven Planning of Distributed Solar PV using Optimal Transport

Typically, distribution system planning processes do not explicitly incorporate energy equity considerations, such as identifying consumers most affected by energy costs and determining how investments in the distribution system can address existing energy burden imbalances. This paper proposes a novel optimal transport (OT)-based method to improve the energy burden distribution of consumers. The approach involves the strategic siting and sizing of solar PV in order to assist customers with high energy burden and improve the overall energy burden distribution of the community. The desired energy burden distribution is defined using the equal distribution equivalent (EDE) concept. The OT-based method is then used to estimate the distributed solar PV capacity to be installed at various locations and the tariffs to be adjusted, all while improving the energy burden distribution and providing valuable insights into distributed generation (DG) planning. The results on IEEE 37 bus test system demonstrate how DG planning, considering EDE and OT, can help reduce the energy burden of low-income consumers. Additionally, the approach also reveals optimal tariff adjustments needed to ensure revenue neutrality for distribution utilities.

Optimal transport, equal distribution equivalent, ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Urban morphology from a landscape perspective: How building morphology distribution land models (BMDLM) emulate pattern and process

Urban form (e.g., building morphology such as height or footprint) can be used to predict environmental footprints, such as energy/water consumption and carbon emissions. Although progress has been made in predicting building characteristics to fill gaps in observation or derive 3-D representations, the relationships between morphology and other variables such as land use and population are poorly understood. Understanding these relationships may enable projections for how cities will evolve with landscapes in the future. A suite of random forest models, the Building Morphology Distribution Land Models (BMDLM), was developed to determine how well building morphology for two distinct statistical measures (central tendency and frequency) can be predicted using land use (e.g., zoning) and population at different resolutions. Clark County, Nevada and Los Angeles County, California are explored as case studies. Generally, 1-km models outperformed 30-m models. Frequency distribution models had the best performance, especially in LA County. Frequency models significantly outperformed spatial autocorrelative models using inverse distance weighting (IDW). BMDLM offers a new take on modeling urban form in which generalized landscape patterns are characterized to understand the influence of population and zoning on urban development, as described by urban scaling theory.

Sturtevant, Jillian [Baylor Univ., Waco, TX (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2025

SWARM: Reimagining scientific workflow management systems in a distributed world

Modern scientific workflows process massive amounts of data from diverse instruments and sensors, leveraging geographically distributed, heterogeneous compute and storage resources—from leadership-class systems to edge devices—connected by high-performance networks. The diversity of resources introduces challenges in harnessing their full potential, with resilience issues arising across applications, system software, networks, storage, and hardware. Today, workflow management systems (WMS) coordinate the execution of computation and data management tasks across target resources. However, WMS’s centralized nature makes them vulnerable to faults and scalability issues that may result in failures of entire computational campaigns. In conclusion, this paper introduces a novel agentic framework for workflow management, fully distributing and decentralizing the WMS functions and modeling them as swarm intelligence agents infused with advanced artificial intelligence solutions and traditional distributed computing algorithms that can make coordinated decisions in the presence of failures of the underlying cyberinfrastructure.

Swarm intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermal processing to modulate surface chemistry and bulk charge distribution in nickel-rich layered lithium positive electrodes

The broader application of nickel-rich layered oxides as positive electrode materials for lithium-ion batteries has been hindered by their high manufacturing cost and inferior cycling stability. Thermal processing, which is integral to electrode materials manufacturing and fundamental in materials science, has not been fully utilized to design advanced positive electrode materials. Herein, we demonstrate the capability of using quenching heat treatment to regulate Li distribution and modulate electronic structure near particle surface. The resulting materials exhibit less parasitic reactions with the electrolyte and an improved charge distribution homogeneity in secondary particles, leading to more stable cycling performance at high voltages (4.5 V vs Li/Li + ). Our synchrotron X-ray analyses reveal the underlying interplay between surface structure and bulk charge distribution in positive electrode materials particles. While strategies used to stabilize positive electrode materials through compositional control, surface modification, and electrolyte engineering have become mature, thermal processing can be advantageous to further improve positive electrode materials manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Experimental Report: Multi-Instrument Comparison of AAF Size Distribution Instruments

Aerosols are particles suspended in the atmosphere, ranging in size from nanometers to micrometers. Their size distribution affects key atmospheric processes, including nucleation, coagulation, scavenging, activation, and radiative properties (Seinfeld and Pandis 2016). Aerosol size distribution is a critical parameter in atmospheric science, influencing processes such as cloud formation and radiative forcing. Accurate representation of aerosol size distributions is essential for understanding their impact on climate, air quality, and human health. However, aerosol size and composition vary significantly across time and space due to meteorological conditions and natural or anthropogenic sources. (Wu and Boor 2021). Various instruments are used to measure aerosol size distributions, each with distinct principles, advantages, and limitations. This report begins with an in-depth overview of aerosol size-distribution comparison studies, focusing on the passive cavity aerosol spectrometer probe (PCASP), portable optical particle spectrometer (POPS), ultra-high-sensitivity aerosol spectrometer (UHSAS), aerodynamic particle sizer (APS), and scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS). All of these instruments are used by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility (AAF), which commissioned this comparison and report. The report evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of these instruments, highlights their applications, and discusses efforts to merge data from multiple instruments for comprehensive analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Search for electroweak-scale dijet resonances using trigger-level analysis with the ATLAS detector in 132 fb −1 of 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV

This article reports on a search for dijet resonances using 132 fb −1 of 𝑝⁢𝑝 collision data recorded at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search is performed solely on jets reconstructed within the ATLAS trigger to overcome bandwidth limitations imposed on conventional single-jet triggers, which would otherwise reject data from decays of sub-TeV dijet resonances. Collision events with two jets satisfying transverse momentum thresholds of 𝑝 T ≥ 85 GeV and jet rapidity separation of |𝑦*| <0.6 are analysed for dijet resonances with invariant masses from 375 to 1800 GeV. A data-driven background estimate is used to model the dijet mass distribution from multijet processes. No significant excess above the expected background is observed. Upper limits are set at 95% confidence level on coupling values for a benchmark leptophobic axial-vector 𝑍′ model and on the production cross section for a new resonance contributing a Gaussian-distributed line-shape to the dijet mass distribution.

hadron colliders↗

DOE OSTI2025

SQuaD: Smart Quantum Detection for Photon Recognition and Dark Count Elimination

Quantum detectors of single photons are an essential component for quantum information processing across computing, communication and networking. Today's quantum detection system, which consists of single photon detectors, timing electronics, control and data processing software, is primarily used for counting the number of single photon detection events. However, it is largely incapable of extracting other rich physical characteristics of the detected photons, such as their wavelengths, polarization states, photon numbers, or temporal waveforms. This work, for the first time, demonstrates a smart quantum detection system, SQuaD, which integrates a field programmable gate array (FPGA) with a neural network model, and is designed to recognize the features of photons and to eliminate detector dark-count. The SQuaD is a fully integrated quantum system with high timing-resolution data acquisition, onboard multi-scale data analysis, intelligent feature recognition and extraction, and feedback-driven system control. Our \name experimentally demonstrates 1) reliable photon counting on par with the state-of-the art commercial systems; 2) high-throughput data processing for each individual detection events; 3) efficient dark count recognition and elimination; 4) up to 100% accurate feature recognition of photon wavelength and polarization. Additionally, we deploy the SQuaD to an atomic (erbium ion) photon emitter source to realize noise-free control and readout of a spin qubit in the telecom band, enabling critical advances in quantum networks and distributed quantum information processing.

Linne, Karl C. [U. Chicago (main)] (ORCID:00090009↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging Pre-Built Catalogs and Object-Level Scheduling to Eliminate I/O Bottlenecks in HPC Environments

Modern High-Performance Computing (HPC) environments face mounting challenges due to the shift from large to small file datasets, along with an increasing number of users and parallelized applications. As HPC systems rely on Parallel File Systems (PFS), such as Lustre for data processing, performance bottlenecks stemming from Object Storage Target (OST) contention have become a significant concern. Existing solutions, such as LADS with its object-level scheduling approach, fall short in large-scale HPC environments due to their inability to effectively address metadata I/O bottlenecks and the growing number of I/O processes. This study highlights the pressing need for a comprehensive solution that tackles both OST contention and metadata I/O challenges in diverse HPC workloads. To address these challenges, we propose SwiftLoad, an object-level I/O scheduling framework that leverages a metadata catalog to enhance the performance and efficiency of parallel HPC utilities. The adoption of the metadata catalog mitigates the metadata I/O bottlenecks that commonly occur in HPC utilities, a challenge that is particularly pronounced in object-level I/O scheduling. SwiftLoad addresses OST contention and the uneven distribution of I/O processes across different OSTs through mathematical modeling and incorporates a Loader Configuration Module to regulate the number of I/O processes. Evaluated with two representative utilities—data deduplication profiling and data augmentation—SwiftLoad achieved performance improvements of up to 5.63x and 11.0x, respectively, on a production supercomputer.

HPC↗