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DOE OSTI2022

Detailed Laboratory Evaluation of Electric Demand Load Shifting Potential of Controlled Heat Pump Water Heaters

The demand profile management of electric end uses is vital research for utilities and policymakers planning greenhouse gas emission reductions. In this study, detailed laboratory research was conducted on the load shifting potential of 4 grid-connected HPWHs and one electric resistance water heaters (ERWH). The testing applied different CTA-2045 shed and critical peak command designs under three water draw profiles. Highly-controlled laboratory experiments were conducted in Florida. One of the four HPWHs was a prototype incorporating the new CTA-2045-B protocol feature allowing ‘advanced’ load-up above tank setpoint. A three-hour morning (6 – 9 AM) and four-hour evening curtailment (4 – 8 PM) were defined as the shed or critical peak periods reflecting high-value control periods for utility coincident load for system-wide electric demand reductions. Tests were performed under baseline conditions (no load shift) and under varied load-shifting schemes, including load up and advanced load up, ahead of shed and critical peak commands. Data were collected from December 2020 – February 2022 in the laboratory and compared with field experiments in Florida and the Pacific Northwest. Grid-connected HPWHs were found to reduce peak demand by up to 0.47 kW compared to uncontrolled HPWH units, depending on time of day, control scheme, draw profile, and temperature cluster. The load up strategy demonstrated the ability of all units to utilize heat pump mode for extended periods ahead of peak events. Demand reductions for the HPWHs were much larger when compared with the ERWH— up to 1.64 kW with large hot water draws in winter.

Fenaughty, Karen↗

DOE OSTI2022

An analytical method for identifying synergies between behind-the-meter battery and thermal energy storage

Electric utilities build generation capacity to meet the highest demand period, and they often pass on the costs associated with these peaking generators to building owners through demand charges. Building owners can minimize these demand charges by shifting energy use away from peak periods with behind-the-meter storage. This storage can include batteries, which can directly shift the metered load, or thermal energy storage, which can shift thermal-driven electric loads like air conditioning. However, there is a lack of research on how best to combine battery and thermal energy storage. In this study, we develop an analytical sizing method to calculate the potential demand reduction and annualized cost savings for different combinations of thermal and battery energy storage sizes. We show that adding batteries to a thermal energy storage system can increase the total system's load shaving potential. This is particularly true when the building has onsite photovoltaic generation or electric vehicle charging, which add significant variability to the load shape. We also show that for a given total storage size, selecting a higher fraction of thermal energy storage can significantly lower the cycling of the battery, and therefore extend the battery life. This, combined with the expected lower first cost of thermal energy storage materials compared to batteries, shows that hybrid energy storage systems can outperform a standalone battery or standalone thermal storage system. Assuming the thermal storage has a capital cost 6x lower than the battery, our analysis shows that the optimal system is 71% thermal energy storage and 29% battery energy storage for a scenario with electric vehicle charging. The annualized cost savings for this system are $48.6 k/yr, whereas an equivalently sized standalone thermal energy storage system would provide annualized cost savings of $28.5 k/yr and a standalone battery would lead to savings of $8.72 k/yr. The hybrid system also reduces battery cycling by 52% compared to a standalone battery, extending battery lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ion Coulomb Crystals in Storage Rings for Quantum Information Science

Quantum information science is a growing field that promises to take computing into a new age of higher performance and larger scale computing as well as being capable of solving problems classical computers are incapable of solving. The outstanding issue in practical quantum computing today is scaling up the system while maintaining interconnectivity of the qubits and low error rates in qubit operations to be able to implement error correction and fault-tolerant operations. Trapped ion qubits offer long coherence times that allow error correction. However, error correction algorithms require large numbers of qubits to work properly. We can potentially create many thousands (or more) of qubits with long coherence states in a storage ring. For example, a circular radio-frequency quadrupole, which acts as a large circular ion trap and could enable larger scale quantum computing. Such a Storage Ring Quantum Computer (SRQC) would be a scalable and fault tolerant quantum information system, composed of qubits with very long coherence lifetimes. With computing demands potentially outpacing the supply of high-performance systems, quantum computing could bring innovation and scientific advances to particle physics and other DOE supported programs. Increased support of R$\&$D in large scale ion trap quantum computers would allow the timely exploration of this exciting new scalable quantum computer. The R$\&$D program could start immediately at existing facilities and would include the design and construction of a prototype SRQC. We invite feedback from and collaboration with the particle physics and quantum information science communities.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of < or = -1) by the end of the twenty-first century from 12 to 30 %. PET induced moderate drying is even more severe in the SPEI projections (SPEI standard deviation of > or = -1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.

moisture↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system

Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation’s energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro-climatic systems. Here, this paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant-level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real-world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at-risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once-through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling hydrogen markets: Energy system model development status and decarbonization scenario results

Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in difficult-to-decarbonize markets such as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime, iron and steel, and the production of fuels and chemicals. Significant literature has been accumulated on engineering-based assessments of various hydrogen technologies, and real-world projects are validating technology performance at larger scales and for low-carbon supply chains. While energy system models continue to be updated to track this progress, many are currently limited in their representation of hydrogen, and as a group they tend to generate highly variable results under decarbonization constraints. Here, the present work provides insights into the development status and decarbonization scenario results of 15 energy system models participating in study 37 of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF37), focusing on the U.S. energy system. The models and scenario results vary widely in multiple respects: hydrogen technology representation, scope and type of hydrogen end-use markets, relative optimism of hydrogen technology input assumptions, and market uptake results reported for 2050 under various decarbonization assumptions. Most models report hydrogen market uptake increasing with decarbonization constraints, though some models report high carbon prices being required to achieve these increases and some find hydrogen does not compete well when assuming optimistic assumptions for all advanced decarbonization technologies. Across various scenarios, hydrogen market success tends to have an inverse relationship to success with direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. While most model-scenario combinations predict modest hydrogen uptake by 2050 – <10 million metric tons (MMT) – aggregating the top 10 % of market uptake results across sectors suggests an upper range demand potential of 42–223 MMT. The high degree of variability across both modeling methods and market uptake results suggests that increased harmonization of both input assumptions and subsector competition scope would lead to more consistent results across energy system models. The wide variability in results indicates strongly divergent conclusions on the role of hydrogen in a decarbonized energy future.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Changing Influence of Precipitation on Soil Moisture Drought With Warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change has already affected drought severity and risk across many regions, and climate models project additional increases in drought risk with future warming. Historically, droughts are typically caused by periods of below‐normal precipitation and terminated by average or above‐normal precipitation. In many regions, however, soil moisture is projected to decrease primarily through warming‐driven increases in evaporative demand, potentially affecting the ability of negative precipitation anomalies to cause drought and positive precipitation anomalies to terminate drought. Here, we use climate model simulations from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how different levels of warming (1, 2, and 3°C) affect the influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought in the Mediterranean and Western North America regions. We demonstrate that the same monthly precipitation deficits (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) at a global warming level of 2°C increase the probability of both surface and rootzone soil moisture drought by 29% in the Mediterranean and 32% and 6% in Western North America compared to the preindustrial baseline. Furthermore, the probability of a dry (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) surface soil moisture month given a high (75th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) precipitation month is 6 (Mediterranean) and 3 (Western North America) times more likely in a 2°C world compared to the preindustrial baseline. For these regions, warming will likely increase the risk of soil moisture drought during low precipitation periods while simultaneously reducing the efficacy of high precipitation periods to terminate droughts.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long-Duration Energy Storage Grid Integration-Valuation Framework and Incentive Gaps

Given these challenges and current modeling gaps on Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES), enhancing the structure and design of existing planning, operations, and organized wholesale markets can better characterize the value of LDES to the power system. To more thoroughly assess the gaps and barriers to LDES investment and readiness for integration into a future grid, we conducted stakeholder outreach through an online survey, interviews with individual independent system operators/regional transmission organizations, and a literature review. Based on this assessment, we identified a set of opportunities for LDES focused development, including a framework to quantify the contributions of LDES on resource adequacy, reliability, and resiliency. Specifically, we identify the potential demand for and benefits of an open-source, LDES-centric evaluation framework that can guide future planning, operations, market design, and policy reforms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Overcoming Challenges to Nuclear-Maritime Applications

This report is the fifth deliverable in a series of reports set forth by the Department of Energy (DOE), led by the American Bureau of Shipping (ABS), for the research award titled “Accelerating Commercial Maritime Demonstration Projects for Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies.” The report highlights guidance to bridge the gaps between innovative nuclear technologies and their practical implementation in maritime environments. The previous reports discussed specific technical, economic and regulatory challenges that may be expected when developing and establishing advanced nuclear technologies for commercial maritime applications. This report supports the mission of the U.S. National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) to demonstrate projects with industry and acts as a resource for the various stakeholders associated with the development of novel applications for advanced reactors. The previous reports discuss the interest in nuclear technology applications for decarbonized energy and identify the potential demands in nuclear energy supply and price. The work in these reports supports the recently issued nuclear Executive Orders (EOs). Specifically, EO 14299, “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”, and EO 14300, “Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission,” by ensuring the rapid development, deployment, and use of advanced nuclear technologies; and increasing the deployment of new nuclear reactor technologies, such as Generation III+ and IV reactors, modular reactors, and microreactors to support America leading the commercialization of affordable and abundant nuclear energy.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1970

Information transfer in 1990

Information transfer services potential demand including telephone, telegraph, videophone, electronic mail, etc

Hough, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Costs and benefits of turbine blades

The potential demand for space processed turbine blades, and the dollar benefits to be derived from this technology were analyzed. It was found that an adequate demand to justify space processed blades will exist. The cost benefits per blade for replacements in existing aircraft is estimated to be $997.50 per blade, and for new aircraft the savings per blade would be over $21,000.00.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1976

Prospective markets and design concepts for civilian remotely piloted aircraft

This paper summarizes a study that examines the technical, economic, and environmental aspects of remotely piloted vehicles (RPVs) in the civil environment. A market survey was conducted in which 35 civil applications of RPVs were identified. For a number of these uses, vehicle and system concepts were defined, benefit and cost comparisons were made with present methods, and the influence of safety and environmental implications was assessed. The results suggest a sizable potential demand for the use of RPVs in the civil sector, and some of the applications show promising cost savings over established methods. A focussed technology effort could provide the safety assurances needed for routine civilian operation of RPVs.

Nelms, W. P., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Space resources. Overview

Space resources must be used to support life on the Moon and in the exploration of Mars. Just as the pioneers applied the tools they brought with them to resources they found along the way rather than trying to haul all their needs over a long supply line, so too must space travelers apply their high technology tools to local resources. This overview describes the findings of a study on the use of space resources in the development of future space activities and defines the necessary research and development that must precede the practical utilization of these resources. Space resources considered included lunar soil, oxygen derived from lunar soil, material retrieved from near-Earth asteroids, abundant sunlight, low gravity, and high vacuum. The study participants analyzed the direct use of these resources, the potential demand for products from them, the techniques for retrieving and processing space resources, the necessary infrastructure, and the economic tradeoffs.

Mckay, Mary Fae↗

NASA NTRS1992

Space Resources

Space resources must be used to support life on the Moon and exploration of Mars. Just as the pioneers applied the tools they brought with them to resources they found along the way rather than trying to haul all their needs over a long supply line, so too must space travelers apply their high technology tools to local resources. The pioneers refilled their water barrels at each river they forded; moonbase inhabitants may use chemical reactors to combine hydrogen brought from Earth with oxygen found in lunar soil to make their water. The pioneers sought temporary shelter under trees or in the lee of a cliff and built sod houses as their first homes on the new land; settlers of the Moon may seek out lava tubes for their shelter or cover space station modules with lunar regolith for radiation protection. The pioneers moved further west from their first settlements, using wagons they had built from local wood and pack animals they had raised; space explorers may use propellant made at a lunar base to take them on to Mars. The concept for this report was developed at a NASA-sponsored summer study in 1984. The program was held on the Scripps campus of the University of California at San Diego (UCSD), under the auspices of the American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE). It was jointly managed under the California Space Inst. and the NASA Johnson Space Center, under the direction of the Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) at NASA Headquarters. The study participants (listed in the addendum) included a group of 18 university teachers and researchers (faculty fellows) who were present for the entire 10-week period and a larger group of attendees from universities, Government, and industry who came for a series of four 1-week workshops. The organization of this report follows that of the summer study. Space Resources consists of a brief overview and four detailed technical volumes: (1) Scenarios; (2) Energy, Power, and Transport; (3) Materials; (4) Social Concerns. Although many of the included papers got their impetus from workshop discussions, most have been written since then, thus allowing the authors to base new applications on established information and tested technology. All these papers have been updated to include the authors' current work. This overview, drafted by faculty fellow Jim Burke, describes the findings of the summer study, as participants explored the use of space resources in the development of future space activities and defined the necessary research and development that must precede the practical utilization of these resources. Space resources considered included lunar soil, oxygen derived from lunar soil, material retrieved from near-Earth asteroids, abundant sunlight, low gravity, and high vacuum. The study participants analyzed the direct use of these resources, the potential demand for products from them, the techniques for retrieving and processing space resources, the necessary infrastructure, and the economic tradeoffs. This is certainly not the first report to urge the utilization of space resources in the development of space activities. In fact, Space Resources may be seen as the third of a trilogy of NASA Special Publications reporting such ideas arising from similar studies. It has been preceded by Space Settlements: A Design Study (NASA SP-413) and Space Resources and Space Settlements (NASA SP-428). And other, contemporaneous reports have responded to the same themes. The National Commission on Space, led by Thomas Paine, in Pioneering the Space Frontier, and the NASA task force led by astronaut Sally Ride, in Leadership and America's Future in Space, also emphasize expansion of the space Infrastructure; more detailed exploration of the Moon, Mars, and asteroids; an early start on the development of the technology necessary for using space resources; and systematic development of the skills necessary for long-term human presence in space. Our report does not represent any Government-authorized view or official NASA policy. NASA's official response to these challenging opportunities must be found in the reports of its Office of Exploration, which was established in 1987. That office's report, released in November 1989, of a 90-day study of possible plans for human exploration of the Moon and Mars is NASA's response to the new initiative proposed by President Bush on July 20, 1989, the 20th anniversary of the Apollo 11 landing on the Moon: "First, for the coming decade, for the 1990s, Space Station Freedom, our critical next step in all our space endeavors. And next, for the new century, back to the Moon, back to the future, and this time, back to stay. And then a journey into tomorrow, a journey to another planet, a manned mission to Mars." This report, Space Resources, offers substantiation for NASA's bid to carry out that new initiative.

McKay, Mary Fae↗

NASA NTRS2007

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Mars Mission Systems Analysis and Requirements Definition

This paper describes the Mars transportation vehicle design concepts developed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Advanced Concepts Office. These vehicle design concepts provide an indication of the most demanding and least demanding potential requirements for nuclear thermal propulsion systems for human Mars exploration missions from years 2025 to 2035. Vehicle concept options vary from large "all-up" vehicle configurations that would transport all of the elements for a Mars mission on one vehicle. to "split" mission vehicle configurations that would consist of separate smaller vehicles that would transport cargo elements and human crew elements to Mars separately. Parametric trades and sensitivity studies show NTP stage and engine design options that provide the best balanced set of metrics based on safety, reliability, performance, cost and mission objectives. Trade studies include the sensitivity of vehicle performance to nuclear engine characteristics such as thrust, specific impulse and nuclear reactor type. Tbe associated system requirements are aligned with the NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Reference Mars mission as described in the Explorations Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) report. The focused trade studies include a detailed analysis of nuclear engine radiation shield requirements for human missions and analysis of nuclear thermal engine design options for the ESAS reference mission.

Mulqueen, Jack↗

NASA NTRS2015

Reforestation and Crop Land Conversion Impacts on Future Regional Air Quality in the Southeastern U.S.

Land in the southeastern U.S. is expected to change, e.g., given the potential demand to develop forest-to-fuel technologies or, conversely, cropification of current forests to increase food production. Possible future PM(sub 2.5) and O3 air quality for two land use/land cover change (LULCC) scenarios, reforestation and cropland conversion, are compared to a reference case scenario for the year 2050 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) models. Changes in air quality driven by changes in climate, deposition and emissions relating to the LULCC are investigated. Reforestation in the Southeast tends to decrease the ambient O3mixing ratio while slightly increasing summertime PM(sub 2.5) in the Southeastern U.S. Results of a climate and deposition (CD) sensitivity simulation are provided for the two alternative LULCC scenarios to isolate the impact of changing climate and deposition on PM(sub 2.5) and O3 air quality. The sensitivity results indicate that deposition and emissions changes associated with reforestation impact O3 and PM(sub 2.5concentrations as much as, and in most cases more than, changes in meteorology. Conversion of forest to cropland in the Southeast, on the other hand, tends to increase O3and increase PM(sub 2.5) year-round. Cropland conversion leads to increased NOX emissions and increases in the 4th highest maximum daily 8-h O3(MDA8) of the year by up to 10 ppb despite the tendency for increased deposition and decreased temperature to reduce the MDA8 mixing ratio. The results of this study show that O3and aerosol concentrations are sensitive to reforestation and cropland conversion in the Southeast and these land use changes should be considered in air quality management plans. Further, they show the sensitivity of such calculations to land cover properties.

deposition↗

NASA NTRS2016

Seat Capacity Selection for an Advanced Short-Haul Aircraft Design

A study was performed to determine the target seat capacity for a proposed advanced short-haul aircraft concept projected to enter the fleet by 2030. This analysis projected the potential demand in the U.S. for a short-haul aircraft using a transportation theory approach, rather than selecting a target seat capacity based on recent industry trends or current market demand. A transportation systems model was used to create a point-to-point network of short-haul trips and then predict the number of annual origin-destination trips on this network. Aircraft of varying seat capacities were used to meet the demand on this network, assuming a single aircraft type for the entire short-haul fleet. For each aircraft size, the ticket revenue and operational costs were used to calculate a total market profitability metric for all feasible flights. The different aircraft sizes were compared, based on this market profitability metric and also the total number of annual round trips and markets served. Sensitivity studies were also performed to determine the effect of changing the aircraft cruise speed and maximum trip length. Using this analysis, the advanced short-haul aircraft design team was able to select a target seat capacity for their design.

Marien, Ty V.↗