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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Occupant-driven end use load models for demand response and flexibility service participation of residential grid-interactive buildings

As demand response becomes increasingly used as a tool to support improved grid flexibility, it is important to consider that there are many potential types of energy end uses that may be used to support such flexibility. Residential appliances, often accounting for 30 % or more of residential energy use, are a currently untapped source of demand flexibility, particularly when aggregated together across homes. To date there has been very limited analysis of residential appliances for use as grid-interactive loads. As such, this research uses disaggregated energy end use data for 564 households, to model the electricity demand flexibility potential of the use of residential dishwashers, clothes washers, clothes dryers, ovens, and ranges (oven + stovetop) on both weekdays and weekends. This includes both at the building level, as well as aggregated to the grid level, specifically the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region. This study was divided into two parts. Part 1 focuses on determining appliance-level loads, and Part 2, which involves aggregation to the grid. Findings suggest that among the studied appliances, clothes dryers provide the greatest demand reduction potential for most times of the day, followed by dishwashers and clothes washers. The maximum potential reduction for clothes dryers is found to be approximately at 11:00 a.m. and this potential sustains throughout most of the daytime period. When considering the willingness of households to participate, based on a survey of households in the Midwest region, clothes dryers still have the most potential for demand reduction. The availability of appliances for load modulation on weekdays and weekends indicates similar load reduction potential for all appliances. Overall, the results of this study suggest that there is an opportunity for shifting appliance usage to optimize grid efficiency and enhance demand response strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

EVI-Equity

EVI-Equity (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure for Equity) is a $200k project, started around in June of 2021, with a funding from the Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO). The motivation was to create a new analytical capability that can enable us to quantify and investigate equitable access to and distribution of existing and future deployment of PEVs and EVSEs in neighborhoods, cities, states, and the nation. EVI-Equity is a bottom-up equity-focused analysis model, built upon individual (synthetic) households, aggregated by census block groups. It consists of four core components - community engagement, environmental profiling, household expenditures, and network design. Although there are some commonalities, EVI-Equity is not a vehicle choice model, charging simulation model, or transportation demand model. EVI-Equity is rather a cross-cutting analysis tool, dedicated for evaluating equitable EV adoption and EVSE deployment, encompassing and bridging a wide variety of related tools, models, and frameworks. Some of the results indicate the importance of used vehicle market for low-income households. The presentation also highlights similarities and variations as to preferred public charging locations. For example, regardless of household income, retail spots are the most preferred location for public charging, followed by curbside/street. However, the results also imply that the importance of workplace charging may vary with income - the lower the income, the less important. Environmental profiling results, with an example of ground-level ozone in Atlanta area, show that the contrast between the haves and the have nots of plug-in electric vehicles depends on location. The assessment of household expenditures illustrates the economic impact of home charging access on an individual household level - the lower the income, the greater the impact is. Lastly, Denver metro area and the state of South Dakota are used to showcase the impact of different network design of charging infrastructure, as well as alternative (vs. baseline/existing) electric vehicle adoption pattern.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microgrid Service Restoration Incorporating Unmonitored Automatic Voltage Controllers and Net Metered Loads

Islanded microgrids may experience voltage and frequency instability due to uncontrolled state changes of voltage regulation devices and inaccurate demand forecasts. Uncontrolled state changes can occur if optimal microgrid restoration and dispatch algorithms, used for generating control commands for distributed energy resources, do not incorporate the behavior of automatic controllers of voltage regulation devices. Inaccurate demand forecasts may be encountered since post-outage demand of behind-the-meter net metered (NM) loads can vary significantly from their historical NM profiles. Here, this paper proposes an optimization formulation which allows optimal control of voltage regulators and capacitor banks without remote control and communication capabilities. A generalized demand model for NM loads is proposed which incorporates the cold load pickup phenomenon and their time varying post-outage demand in accordance with the IEEE 1547 standard. The time dependent optimal control formulation and the NM demand model are integrated in a sequential microgrid restoration algorithm by linearization of the involved logic propositions. A detailed case study on the unbalanced IEEE 123-node test system in OpenDSS validates the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy demand science for a decarbonized society in the context of the residential sector

To develop a decarbonized society, two contradictory requirements must be met: (1) reducing energy demand and (2) creating flexibility in energy demand in order to respond to fluctuations in renewable electricity generation. To help meet these requirements, conventional energy efficiency studies should be extended to incorporate “energy demand science.” This paper presents a definition of “energy demand science” and then reviews the related history and research questions of energy demand science in the context of the residential sector. It then examines three key areas that must be integrated into the next-generation energy demand science: (1) energy demand measurement with detailed granularity and analysis using cutting-edge technology, (2) energy demand modeling that helps clarify the formation mechanism of energy demand, and (3) identification of the factors that influence people's decision making, which represents typical human-dimension research. Energy demand science consists of technical, human, natural environment, demographic, and land-use dimensions, and their integration is key for the establishment of a decarbonized society.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Distributed Generation in California

In support of analysis for the biennial Integrated Energy Policy Report, the California Energy Commission and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have partnered to study the growth of distributed energy resources in California. This study involves the use of National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Distributed Generation Market Demand model, available at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dgen/, to project statewide adoption of distributed photovoltaics and paired storage. Key outcomes of the collaboration include: • Improved representation of California building stock, load profiles, historical adoption, and tariffs, including the net billing tariff, in the dGen model; • Trained CEC staff members to use and adapt the dGen model for their specific needs; • Developed a methodology for representing emerging consumer segments to potentially adopt distributed energy resources, including low-income, multifamily, and renter-occupied buildings; • Forecasted solar photovoltaic and paired storage growth in California using a common set of modeling parameters. This report describes the multiyear effort, which includes a discussion of: • Methodology and data employed in adapting the Distributed Generation Market Demand model for California to forecast solar photovoltaic and storage statewide through 2040; • Steps taken to modify the base model to forecast solar photovoltaic adoption in emerging market segments such as multifamily or renter-occupied homes or both; • Future enhancements of the model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel probabilistic regression model for electrical peak demand estimate of commercial and manufacturing buildings

Due to the high cost of electricity in commercial and industrial sectors, demand forecast models have gained increasing attention. However, there are two unresolved issues: (1) Models are not adaptable when exposed to previously unknown data (2) The value of regression methods vs. state-of-the-art machine learning models has not been made apparent before. This study’s goal is to develop probabilistic demand estimation models. Herein, we propose a probabilistic Bayesian regression framework that can not only estimate future demands with high accuracy but also be updated once new information is available. By applying the proposed algorithm to two real-world case studies (commercial and manufacturing), we show a 40.3% and 30.8% improvement in terms of mean absolute error for the two cases. Moreover, the proposed technique outperforms powerful machine learning approaches, including support vector machine by 10.39%, random forest by 6.17%, and multilayer perceptron by 9.14% in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification and Online Updating of Dynamic Models for Demand Response of an Industrial Air Separation Unit

Demand-response operation of air separation units requires frequent changes in production rate(s), and scheduling calculations must explicitly consider process dynamics to ensure feasibility of the solutions. To this end, scale-bridging models (SBMs) approximate the scheduling-relevant dynamics of a process and its controller in a low-order representation. In contrast to previous works that have employed nonlinear SBMs, this paper proposes linear SBMs, developed using time-series analysis, to facilitate online scheduling computations. Using a year-long industrial dataset, we nd that compact linear SBMs are suitable approximations over typical scheduling horizons, but that their accuracies are unpredictable over time. We introduce a strategy for online updating of the SBMs, based on Kalman ltering schemes for online parameter estimation. The approach greatly improves the accuracy of SBM predictions and will enable the use of linear SBM-based demand-response scheduling in the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Infrastructure Analysis for the Port Applications [Slides]

The International Maritime Organization has committed to 50% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 worldwide as of 2023. This analysis includes performing an inventory and modeling efforts to understand the energy, equipment and cost requirements to support decarbonization of cargo handling and shore power at U.S. Ports, along with assessment of zero- and near- zero emission fuel supplies at or near U.S. ports focused upon Hydrogen technologies. Initial market assessment for ocean going vessels for harbor support and ocean-going vessels is explored. An energy analysis is performed on the port system using a holistic approach and considering the port as an entire ecosystem that functions as a transportation and energy node. Presently, a comprehensive view is lacking for future analysis efforts, this analysis seeks to address this gap in data by evaluating four representative port types and the potential for utilizing hydrogen for the maritime industry. Every port is different, but broadly they could be bracketed into reference cases with scaling factors for the relative size of the port operations. These reference ports are for future use, potentially as baselines for analysis and development of demonstration programs. An equipment inventory for each reference port type (container, bulk, breakbulk, and inland waterway) is presented. A comparative analysis of fuel cell electric and battery electric equipment is conducted based on the following criteria: technology readiness level, refueling/charging time, operational range, energy consumption, and fuel cost savings compared to baseline internal combustion engine equipment. The tradeoffs and synergies between two alternative powertrains is highlighted. Based on energy and infrastructure analysis, average and high equipment utilization profiles across different port types is identified and quantified baseline fuel and electricity demand for various decarbonization scenarios. Based on the portfolio of equipment converted to fuel cell electric, the estimates of initial capital investment are provided for hydrogen refueling stations across ports. An energy demand model is developed that predicts well the all-electric cargo handling equipment annual energy consumption for ports with annual tonnage under 2 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). The model is a good rubric to follow for further energy demand models that can create a scalable solution to understand the energy needs of cargo handling equipment, whether they are all-electric, hydrogen fuel cell, or powered by another fuel-type. Zero and near-zero emission fuel supply at ports is evaluated looking into the characteristics of hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol as an alternative fuel, as well as the bunkering status. The readiness of reference ports to produce ammonia or methanol and bunker the fuel is examined based on the framework developed by the Global Maritime Forum and Rocky Mountain Institute.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Future Demand for EV Charging Infrastructure [Slides]

U.S. climate goals for economy-wide net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 require rapid decarbonization of the light-duty vehicle fleet and plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) are poised to become the preferred technology for achieving this end. Considerable investments in public and private EV charging infrastructure will be needed to support widespread adoption, however, guidance is lacking on when, where, and what types of chargers will be needed. In this PLMA Load Management Dialogue session, researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) discuss findings from a recent quantitative assessment of the charging network requirements to support high penetrations of light-duty EVs by 2030. The study produced multiple detailed network growth trajectories at the national, state, and local levels that serve as a guidepost for future planning. In addition, an overview of NREL's publicly accessible EV infrastructure tools and data sets, designed to support planning and decision-making for EV infrastructure stakeholders, is provided.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeled Electricity Demand Profiles for Federal, State, and Municipal Electric Vehicle Fleets in the United States

Federal, state, and municipal electric vehicle fleet hourly load datasets at the Uber H3 hex, county, and city resolutions, as described in Singer et al. (2025). Please cite as: Singer, Mark, Cabell Hodge, Kara Podkaminer, and Brennan Borlaug. 2025. Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Federal, State, and Municipal Electric Vehicle Fleets in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5400-92142. https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy25osti/92142.pdf

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeled Electricity Demand Profiles for Electric Airport Ground Support Equipment in the United States

Electric airport ground support equipment (eGSE) hourly annual (8760) load datasets for the top 50 U.S. airports (by enplanements), as described in Liu et al. (2025). Please cite as: Liu, Bo, Kevin Robby, Jayaraj Rane, Adway Das, Kara Podkaminer, and Brennan Borlaug. 2025. Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Electric Airport Ground Support Equipment in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5400-92139. https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy25osti/92139.pdf

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeled Electricity Demand Profiles for Electric Port Cargo Handling Equipment in the United States

Electric port cargo handling equipment (eCHE) hourly load datasets for the top 25 U.S. cargo airports (by tonnage), as described in Polemis et al. (2025). Please cite as: Polemis, Katerina, Andrew Kotz, Kara Podkaminer, and Brennan Borlaug. 2025. Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Electric Port Cargo Handling Equipment in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5400-92141. https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy25osti/92141.pdf

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeled Electricity Demand Profiles for Electric Transit Bus Depots in the United States

Hourly one-week electricity demand profiles for electric transit bus depots in the United States, as described in Liu et al. (2025). Please cite as: Liu, Bo, Tim Jonas, Kara Podkaminer, and Brennan Borlaug. 2025. Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Electric Transit Bus Depots in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5400-92140. https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy25osti/92140.pdf

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2018

Aviation Global Demand Forecast Model Development and ISAAC Studies: UAS - VTOL Cargo Study

This report examines the potential market of cargo ODM operations in the Northern California area. The analysis presented describes how UAS VTOL cargo aircraft (called heron Cargo ODM) could be used in a dual-role purpose to carry cargo and passengers in a large metropolitan area. The purpose of this study is to provide NASA with insights on the potential market for cargo ODM operations.The analysis presented in the report uses various datasets including the American Community Survey (ACS), LODES data and the IHS International Transearc hdatabase.

Mihir Rimjha↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting Distributed PV Adoption in Barranquilla, Colombia [Slides]

The objective of the dGen Colombia project is to provide projections to 2050 on distributed PV deployment by sector for a range of scenarios for Barranquilla, Colombia. NREL used the open-source Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen) adapted for international projects for this analysis. As part of this analysis, technical potential, economic potential, and adoption projections of rooftop and groundmount PV for the city of Barranquilla are presented. Five main scenarios and their combinations were modeled to provide insight on the impact of increased demand from electric vehicles, air conditioning, and time-of-use tariffs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

BEAM CORE: A Flexible Ecosystem for Freight, Demographics, and Vehicle Analysis

The Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility Comprehensive Regional Evaluator (BEAM CORE) is an open-source, modular ecosystem of highly refined, agent-based modeling tools developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the National Laboratory of the Rockies. Organizations such as metropolitan planning organizations, agencies, and companies can use BEAM CORE to analyze freight movement and optimize logistics solutions, assess the impacts of emerging freight technologies or e-commerce trends, model dynamic population growth and evolution, and understand the drivers and impacts of electric vehicle adoption across households in a given region. Users can choose from a flexible suite of modeling modules according to their needs and priorities. The modules integrate with travel demand models to support enhanced analysis of diverse scenarios involving freight movement, vehicle technologies, and other key factors relevant to regional planning.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗