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NASA NTRS2003

On-Orbit Performance Degradation of the International Space Station P6 Photovoltaic Arrays

This paper discusses the on-orbit performance and performance degradation of the International Space Station P6 solar array wings (SAWs) from the period of December 2000 through February 2003. Data selection considerations and data reduction methods are reviewed along with the approach for calculating array performance degradation based on measured string shunt current levels. Measured degradation rates are compared with those predicted by the computational tool SPACE and prior degradation rates measured with the same SAW technology on the Mir space station. Initial results show that the measured SAW short-circuit current is degrading 0.2 to 0.5 percent per year. This degradation rate is below the predicted rate of 0.8 percent per year and is well within the 3 percent estimated uncertainty in measured SAW current levels. General contributors to SAW degradation are briefly discussed.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Calibration of the Visible and Near-Infrared Channels of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) After Launch

The relative degradation in time of the visible(channel 1: approx.0.58-0.6 microns) and near-infrared(channel 2: approx. O.72-1.1 microns) channels of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(AVHRR), onboard the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites(POES), has been determined, using the southeastern Libyan desert(21-23 deg N latitude; 28- 29 deg E longitude) as a time-invariant calibration target. A statistical procedure was used on the reflectance data for the two channels from the B3 data of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project(ISCCP) to obtain the degradation rates for the AVERRs on NOAA-7, -9, and -11 spacecraft. The degradation rates per year for channels 1 and 2 are respectively: 3.6% and 4.3%(NOAA-7); 5.9% and 3.5%(NOAA-9); and 1.2% and 2.0%(NOAA-11). The use of the degradation rates thus determined, in conjunction with 'absolute' calibrations obtained from congruent aircraft and satellite measurements, in the development of correction algorithms is illustrated with the AVHRR on the NOAA-9 spacecraft.

Rao, C. R. Nagaraja↗

DOE OSTI2022

Module-Level Solutions For Degradation by Ionization Damage

After years of improving module efficiency while targeting mean degradation rates of 0.5 to 0.6 %/y for crystalline silicon technology, there is much evidence that the degradation rates are now increasing significantly. Contributing factors include:Radiation damage (UV-Light Induced Degradation): Trina solar: -4.5%/y degradation rate in Singapore, DOE National Laboratory Regional Test Centers showed degradation of -1% < r < -2%/y in crystalline silicon modules, Jinko Solar: -4% < r < -7% efficiency loss from 540 MJ/m-2 of UV-A light, ISFH: 15% relative power loss during of 1.8 GJ/m-2 UV exposure, attributed to H+. Electrical bias from positive system voltage (e.g., +1000 V, +1500 V) can drive ions and metallization through the encapsulation, NREL: Ion transport can affect the cell passivation, resulting in power loss of 5% to 40% in p-PERC+ (bifacial), NREL: Damage at cell rear with up to 17% power at cell fronts in n-PERT modules. Delamination can also occur due to cell surface reactions driven by light and bias.

module efficiency↗

DOE OSTI2022

Onymous early‐life performance degradation analysis of recent photovoltaic module technologies

Abstract The cost of photovoltaic (PV) modules has declined by 85% since 2010. To achieve this reduction, manufacturers altered module designs and bill of materials; changes that could affect module durability and reliability. To determine if these changes have affected module durability, we measured the performance degradation of 834 fielded PV modules representing 13 module types from 7 manufacturers in 3 climates over 5 years. Degradation rates ( Rd ) are highly nonlinear over time, and seasonal variations are present in some module types. Mean and median degradation rate values of −0.62%/year and −0.58%/year, respectively, are consistent with rates measured for older modules. Of the 23 systems studied, 6 have degradation rates that will exceed the warranty limits in the future, whereas 13 systems demonstrate the potential of achieving lifetimes beyond 30 years, assuming Rd trends have stabilized.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Performance Comparison of Clipping Detection Techniques in AC Power Time Series

In this research, a variety of methods were developed to detect clipping periods in AC power time series. AC power data streams associated with 36 unique systems across the United States were collected, and data points representing clipping periods were manually labeled by experts. Using this data set for training and validation, novel logic-based and machine learning (ML) approaches were developed to classify time series values as clipping or non-clipping. These approaches were compared to the RdTools method for detecting clipping periods. The logic-based and ML XGBoost approaches achieved F-scores of 85.0 and 77.6, respectively, when cross-validated against the manually labeled data, as compared to the current RdTools approach (F-score of 56.4), indicating a significant improvement at detecting clipping periods. Additionally, the effects of each clipping filter when evaluating system degradation rates were assessed, using 31 unique systems across the United States. Results indicate that estimated system degradation rate can vary based on the type of clipping filter used, by up to 0.6% degradation rate for some cases.

clipping↗

DOE OSTI2024

Updated sustainability status of cadmium telluride thin‐film photovoltaic systems and projections

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the up-to-date life-cycle sustainability status of cadmium-telluride based photovoltaic (PV) systems. Current production modules (Series 6 and Series 7) are analyzed in terms of their energy performance and environmental footprint and compared with the older series 4 module production and current single-crystalline Silicon (sc-Si) module production. For fixed-tilt systems with Series 6 modules operating under average US irradiation of 1800 kWh/m 2 /year, the global warming potential (GWP) is reduced from 16 g CO 2eq /kWh in Series 4 systems to 10 CO 2 eq /kWh in Series 6 systems. For operation in US-SW irradiation of 2300 kWh/m 2 /year, the GWP is reduced from 11 to 8 CO 2eq /kWh and for 1-axis tracking systems operating in Phoenix, Arizona, with point-of array irradiation of 3051 kWh/m 2 /year the GWP is reduced to 6.5 CO 2eq /kWh. Similar reductions have happened in all environmental indicators. Energy payback times (EPBT) of currently installed systems range from 0.6 years for fixed–tilt ground–mounted installations at average US irradiation at latitude tilt installations to 0.3 years for one-axis trackers at high US-SW irradiation, considering average fossil-fuel dominated electricity grids with fuel to electricity conversion efficiency of 0.3. The resulting energy return on energy investment (EROI) also depends on the conversion efficiency of the electricity grid and on the operation life expectance. For a 30-year operational life and grid conversion efficiency of 0.3, EROI ranges from 50 (at US average irradiation) to 70 for US-SW irradiation. The EROI declines with increased grid conversion efficiency; for CdTe PV operating in south California with grid conversion efficiency of 49%, the EROI is about 50 and is projected to fall to 30 when the state's 2030 target of 80% renewable energy penetration materializes. Material alternatives that show a potential of further reductions in degradation rates and materials for enhanced encapsulation that would enable longer operation lives have also been investigated. A degradation rate of 0.3%/year, which has been verified by accelerated testing, is assumed in 30-year scenarios; this is projected to be reduced to 0.2%/year in the near-term and potentially to 0.1%/year in the longer term. With such low degradation rates and enhanced edge-sealing, modules can last 40- to 50-years. Consequently, all impact indicators will be proportionally reduced while EROI will increase. This detailed LCA was conducted according to ISO standards and IEA PVPS Task 12 guidelines. Furthermore, the study revealed that the choices of system models, methods and temporal system boundaries can significantly impact the results and points out to the need to include assumptions regarding these choices in the “transparency in reporting” requirements listed in the IEA PVPS Task 12 Guidelines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau

The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of Membrane Chemical Degradation as a Function of Catalyst Platinum Loading

Membrane chemical degradation is one of many factors that can impact fuel cell durability. Additionally, the fuel cell’s lifetime heavily depends on the membrane and its ability to maintain chemical and mechanical integrity. Previous studies indicate that chemical degradation is due to the formation of hydroxyl radicals that attack the polymer structure resulting in membrane thinning, pinhole formation, and the release of fluoride and sulfate ions. Membrane durability was investigated using ultra-low Pt electrode loadings (≤ 0.1 mg Pt cm -2 ). Accelerated stress testing (US-DOE protocols) demonstrated that the degradation rate was found to increase with higher Pt loadings. This is most likely due to more heterogeneous sites for radical formation due to hydrogen crossover to the cathode. We also explored membrane degradation rates while varying catalyst layer thickness, ionomer to carbon ratio, and types of carbon support. All of the aforementioned variables impact the membrane degradation rates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ultrasonic degradation of GenX (HFPO-DA) – Performance comparison to PFOA and PFOS at high frequencies

Sonolytic degradation kinetics of hexafluoropropylene oxide-dimer acid (HFPO-DA or GenX) were studied for the first time at four high ultrasonic frequencies (375, 580, 860 and 1,140kHz) and three power densities (200, 300 and 400W/L), and compared to the degradation of previously studied perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS). The frequency of 580kHz displayed the highest degradation of all three PFAS tested. Within each frequency, the degradation performance increased consistently with increasing power density. Degradation rates were highest for GenX over PFOA to PFOS (k GenX = 0.0501 min -1 , k PFOA = 0.0444 min -1 , k PFOS 0.0153 min -1 ), which is in direct agreement with their reported thermal stability (PFOS > PFOA > GenX). No known by-product formation as expected from the literature on truncation mechanism was detected in the samples (i.e. shorter chain carboxylic acid PFAS). Further, fluorine mass balance experiments at 580kHz and 400W/ L confirmed that GenX defluorinated fastest among the three tested PFAS and had lowest loss of fluorine in the mass balance. Degradation experiments with a mixture of all three PFAS displayed lower degradation rates than the individual experiments, where PFOA exhibited the largest reduction in degradation rate (by 31%), followed by GenX (by 19%), and finally by PFOS (by 17%). Overall, our study demonstrates that ultrasound can provide effective destruction of different PFAS (70-90% fluorine from mitigated PFAS was detected as inorganic fluoride) with a similar energy demand to alternative PFAS treatment methods reported in literature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of clear-sky and satellite-derived irradiance data for determining the degradation of photovoltaic system performance

Knowing the degradation in performance of a photovoltaic (PV) system over time is important for estimating the lifetime energy produced and the financial return. A key parameter for normalizing performance and determining degradation is the plane-of-array (POA) irradiance. Because accurate long-term POA measurements are not always readily available, three methods of providing irradiance data for determining the degradation rate of PV systems were evaluated—a method using irradiance data modeled with the Ineichen clear-sky model and monthly Linke turbidity coefficients, a method using the supplemental clear-sky irradiance data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB), and a method using the NSRDB solar irradiance data for both cloudy and clear-sky conditions (all-sky). The irradiance data from the three methods were evaluated using measured irradiance data from 1998 through 2018 for the seven-station SURFRAD network and for 3-, 5-, and 10-year periods that might be used for evaluating PV system performance. Only the two clear-sky methods for the 10-year periods had less uncertainty with respect to determining PV system degradation than the expected median degradation rate for PV systems of -0.5%/year to -0.6%/year. Shorter periods and the all-sky method had larger uncertainties, making their use questionable for determining the degradation rates of PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting the Rate of Degradation Related to Oxygen Electrode Delamination in Solid Oxide-Ion Electrolyzers

One of the leading causes for the performance degradation in H 2 -producing solid oxide electrolytic cells (SOECs) is the gradual delamination of oxygen electrode (OE) from the electrolyte under a strong anodic polarization. Identification of the key factor that controls the rate of OE delamination is of paramount importance to achieve long-term stable operation of SOECs. Here we show from thousands of hours of testing data that the exchange current density (i°) of OE can be leveraged as a predictor for the rate of delamination. To obtain i°, we apply DC-biased electrochemical impedance spectroscopy on a three-electrode symmetrical cell to measure polarization resistance (R p ) of OE as a function of current density (i) and time (t). The collected R p -i-t raw data are then converted to overpotential ( η )-i-t, from which i° is extracted from the “low-field” approximation. An analytical relationship between i° and time-to-delamination (TTD) is further established from the established i°-i-t relationship. We show that under a constant anodic polarization current density i, the greater the ratio i/i°, the faster the delamination. Therefore, we conclude that the exchange current density of an OE, i°, can be used to predict the rate of OE degradation in solid oxide-ion electrolyzers.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Literature Review on Next Generation Solvent Isopar ® L Vapor Pressure Curve and the Partitioning of its Modifier and Extractant

The Next Generation Solvent (NGS) is set to replace the Original Caustic Side Solvent Extractant (CSSX) at the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF). The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) was requested by Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC), formerly Savannah River Remediation (SRR), to perform a literature review on the following topics to address flammability concerns with the current solvent: Isopar ® L vapor pressure curve for NGS, partitioning ratio for the extractant MaxCalix and the modifier Cs-7SB, and high cesium concentration impacts on NGS radiolysis and potential solvent degradation rates in high cesium concentrations. The following conclusions and recommendations are made based on previous experimental work and literature: (1) Current SWPF flammable gas generation calculations use an Isopar ® L vapor pressure curve based on experimental testing with the Original CSSX solvent. No such testing to date has been performed with NGS. It is suggested that the decrease in Cs-7SB concentration for NGS compared to the Original CSSX solvent would lead to a slightly higher vapor pressure at all temperatures in SWPF vessels. A bounding NGS vapor pressure curve has been provided; it is recommended to see if these values would challenge current flammability controls and to perform testing if needed.(2) The partitioning ratio for Cs-7SB is known in the Original CSSX solvent with dilute nitric acid and caustic solutions. No tests could be found for the partitioning of Cs-7SB to dilute boric acid solutions; however, a similar partitioning ratio is expected. Due to the lipophilic alkyl chains on MaxCalix, it is expected to be even less soluble than BOBCalixC6 in the aqueous phase and should not be considered a significant contributor to the f organic term. Additionally, the reaction rate of N,N’,N’’-Tris(3,7-dimethyloctyl)guanidine (TiDG) or its degradation products with a hydrogen radical should be estimated/determined if they are found to be significant contributors to the f organic term. (3) NGS is expected to see much higher Cs concentrations at SWPF in comparison to its use at the Modular CSSX Unit (MCU). These higher Cs concentrations could influence radiolytic degradation rates of the solvent. NGS appears to be fairly stable to radiolytic degradation based on previous testing and its use at MCU. However, there has not been radiolytic flammable gas generation testing with NGS to date. There is a risk that the continued use of G-values obtained for flammable gases produced from the irradiation of the Original CSSX solvent is not bounding for NGS, but this is considered a very low risk due to the similarities in the composition of the solvents, as well as the conservatisms in the experimental design of the Original CSSX testing.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

De-Risking Large-Scale PV Systems Through Data Analytics

Large-scale photovoltaic system performance analysis is being conducted within the US Department of Energy's-sponsored PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative. This collaboration with commercial PV system owners collects and evaluates PV field performance data, and provides reports on aggregated results. Drawing on over 2200 sites across the US and over 24,000 separate PV inverters we have collected in excess of 8.3 gigawatts (GW) of performance data, representing 6-7% of the entire US installed PV capacity. A mixture of utility-scale and large commercial systems are represented, averaging 4.1 megawatts (MW) in size and 5 years in age. Initial results show average system degradation rates at -0.75% / year, which is slightly higher than historically reported module-level values of -0.5%/year. We also found that the availability of systems averaged 97.7%, which is lower than the typical 99% uptime assumed by many project economic forecasts. Given these results, we compared monthly performance with expected production values, based on satellite weather data and a simple PVWatts performance model. We found that systems were performing within 10% of monthly expectation over 90% of the time, with a fleet average vs expected monthly value of 0.994. We also evaluated the impact of extreme weather events on system performance, and found a range of short-term and longer-term performance effects ranging from grid outage, system downtime, module damage and accelerated long-term degradation rate.

analysis↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of Protective Coatings for Metal-Supported Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cells

Green hydrogen is essential to achieving carbon neutrality, and solid oxide electrolysis cells can produce hydrogen using renewable power and waste heat. Insufficient long-term durability of solid oxide electrolysis cells has impeded their commercialization. Here, coatings in the porous stainless steel support of metal-supported solid oxide electrolysis cells (MS-SOECs) are used to dramatically improve their performance and durability. The long-term degradation rate of uncoated MS-SOECs is highly dependent on the current density, with the fastest degradation occurring at the highest current density tested, 0.5 A cm -2 . At this current density, coatings are quite effective. Three protective coatings, Co 3 O 4 deposited by atomic layer deposition (ALD), Co 3 O 4 deposited by electroplating deposition (ED), and CuMn 1.8 O 4 (CMO) deposited by electrophoretic deposition (EPD), are explored to enhance the performance of MS-SOECs with La 0.6 Sr 0.4 Co 0.2 Fe 0.8 O 3 -Sm 0.2 Ce 0.8 O 3 (LSCF-SDC) as the oxygen catalyst and SDC-Ni as the fuel catalyst. The initial average current density at 1.4 V is increased with coatings. It is 0.83 mA cm -2 for the ALD cells, 1.05 mA cm -2 for the ED cells, and 1.13 mA cm -2 for the EPD cells, compared to 0.65 mA cm -2 for the bare cells at 700 °C with 50% H 2 -50% H 2 O. The degradation rate over 1000 h of continuous operation is reduced from 36% to 26%, 27%, and 19% kh -1 with the three coatings, respectively. Furthermore, these improvements are ascribed to reduced Cr poisoning on the oxygen catalyst, which is one of the primary degradation modes for this type of MS-SOEC.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1992

Ultraviolet degradation to double anti-reflective coated solar cells

Six experiments at COMSAT Labs (since the early '80's) have consistently shown higher UV degradation rates for DAR coated cells when the tests are extended beyond 1000 hours. Results for degradation at 10 years, extrapolated from data at 3000 hours, exceeds 10%. Lesser degradation rates are observed for DAR coated textured cells. Data and models will be presented.

Meulenberg, Andrew↗

DOE OSTI2026

PV Durability at Scale: Assessing Bifacial and TOPCon Field Performance

Recent field performance results of TOPCon and PERC Bifacial modules are presented based on small-scale deployments at NLR, and a selection of 3rd-party residential data. Bifacial PERC degradation rates are a median of -1 % / yr with bifacial TOPCon modules at a similar rate of -1.1 %/yr over the first couple of years. Comparable PERC Monofacial modules have a degradation rate of -0.5%/yr. Some TOPCon modules exhibited an indoor dark metastability effect which requires recovery by light soaking or UV exposure prior to IV curve measurement. Further monitoring is needed to confirm the long-term stability of TOPCon modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2015

Insulation Resistance Degradation in Ni-BaTiO3 Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors

Insulation resistance (IR) degradation in NiBaTiO3 multilayer ceramic capacitors has been characterized by the measurement of both time to failure (TTF) and direct current leakage current as a function of stress time under highly accelerated life test conditions. The measured leakage current time dependence data fit well to an exponential form, and a characteristic growth time tau (sub SD) can be determined. A greater value of tau (sub SD) represents a slower IR degradation process. Oxygen vacancy migration and localization at the grain boundary region results in the reduction of the Schottky barrier height and has been found to be the main reason for IR degradation in NiBaTiO3 capacitors. The reduction of barrier height as a function oftime follows an exponential relation of phi (t ) = phi (0) e (exp -2Kt), where 13 the degradation rate constant K Koe (Ek/kT) is inversely proportional to the mean TTF (MTTF) and can be determined using an Arrhenius plot. For oxygen vacancy electromigration, a lower barrier height phi (0) will favor a slow IR degradation process, but a lower phi (0) will also promote electronic carrier conduction across the barrier and decrease the IR. As a result, a moderate barrier height phi (0) (and therefore a moderate IR value) with a longer MTTF (smaller degradation rate constant K) will result in a minimized IR degradation process and the most improved reliability in NiBaTiO3 multilayer ceramic capacitors.

reliability↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deciphering Degradation: Machine Learning on Real-World Performance Data

The solar investment community is in need of up-to-date and data-derived system degradation rates to use in financial models that calculate the risk and expectation of energy revenue. To date, financial models choose degradation rates from past studies that are limited and may not be representative of solar projects in development today. As the solar industry expands in all sectors (residential, commercial, and utility), there is a growing amount of energy generation data available to analyze. With the help of the open source degradation analysis code (RdTools) it is now possible to derive degradation on an ongoing basis and continuously provide up-to-date durability statistics to the investment community. Ongoing and accurate statistics of fielded photovoltaic systems allows financial stakeholders to constrain energy revenue projections, lower financial risk, and increase the bankability of solar. This presentation will provide a mid-term progress update on a 2 year SETO-funded degradation project that involves applying RdTools analysis on kWh Analytics’ industry database. With results from the RdTools analysis in hand, machine learning methods are employed to quantify how much variance of system performance degradation can be explained by predictor variables such as environmental factors, equipment bill of materials characteristics, and system design information. The goal of this presentation is to promote the usage of RdTools on an ongoing to data owners and to solicit feedback from researchers and stakeholders on how to maximize impact of the SETO-funded kWh Analytics degradation project.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗