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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Inferring building height from footprint morphology data

As cities continue to grow globally, characterizing the built environment is essential to understanding human populations, projecting energy usage, monitoring urban heat island impacts, preventing environmental degradation, and planning for urban development. Buildings are a key component of the built environment and there is currently a lack of data on building height at the global level. Current methodologies for developing building height models that utilize remote sensing are limited in scale due to the high cost of data acquisition. Other approaches that leverage 2D features are restricted based on the volume of ancillary data necessary to infer height. Here, we find, through a series of experiments covering 74.55 million buildings from the United States, France, and Germany, it is possible, with 95% accuracy, to infer building height within 3 m of the true height using footprint morphology data. Our results show that leveraging individual building footprints can lead to accurate building height predictions while not requiring ancillary data, thus making this method applicable wherever building footprints are available. The finding that it is possible to infer building height from footprint data alone provides researchers a new method to leverage in relation to various applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven high-dimensional statistical inference with generative models

Crucial to many measurements at the LHC is the use of correlated multi-dimensional information to distinguish rare processes from large backgrounds, which is complicated by the poor modeling of many of the crucial backgrounds in Monte Carlo simulations. In this work, we introduce HI-SIGMA, a method to perform unbinned high-dimensional statistical inference with data-driven background distributions. In contradistinction to many applications of Simulation Based Inference in High Energy Physics, HI-SIGMA relies on generative ML models, rather than classifiers, to learn the signal and background distributions in the high-dimensional space. These ML models allow for interpretable inference while also incorporating model errors and other sources of systematic uncertainties. We showcase this methodology on a simplified version of a di-Higgs measurement in the bbγγ final state, where the di-photon resonance allows for background interpolation from sidebands into the signal region. We demonstrate that HI-SIGMA provides improved sensitivity as compared to standard classifier-based methods, and that systematic uncertainties can be straightforwardly incorporated by extending methods which have been used for histogram based analyses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solving high-dimensional inverse problems using amortized likelihood-free inference with noisy and incomplete data

Here, we present a likelihood-free probabilistic inversion method based on normalizing flows for high-dimensional inverse problems. The proposed method is composed of two complementary networks: a summary network for data compression and an inference network for parameter estimation. The summary network encodes raw observations into a fixed-size vector of summary features, while the inference network generates samples of the approximate posterior distribution of the model parameters based on these summary features. The posterior samples are produced in a deep generative fashion by sampling from a latent Gaussian distribution and passing these samples through an invertible transformation. We construct this invertible transformation by sequentially alternating conditional invertible neural network and conditional neural spline flow layers. The summary and inference networks are trained simultaneously. We apply the proposed method to an inversion problem in groundwater hydrology to estimate the posterior distribution of the log-conductivity field conditioned on spatially sparse time-series observations of the system’s hydraulic head responses. The conductivity field is represented with 706 degrees of freedom in the considered problem. Comparison with the likelihood-based iterative ensemble smoother PEST-IES method demonstrates that the proposed method accurately estimates the parameter posterior distribution and the observations’ predictive posterior distribution at a fraction of the inference time of PEST-IES.

conditional invertible neural network↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferring the shape of data: a probabilistic framework for analysing experiments in the natural sciences

A critical step in data analysis for many different types of experiments is the identification of features with theoretically defined shapes in N -dimensional datasets; examples of this process include finding peaks in multi-dimensional molecular spectra or emitters in fluorescence microscopy images. Identifying such features involves determining if the overall shape of the data is consistent with an expected shape; however, it is generally unclear how to quantitatively make this determination. In practice, many analysis methods employ subjective, heuristic approaches, which complicates the validation of any ensuing results—especially as the amount and dimensionality of the data increase. Here, we present a probabilistic solution to this problem by using Bayes’ rule to calculate the probability that the data have any one of several potential shapes. This probabilistic approach may be used to objectively compare how well different theories describe a dataset, identify changes between datasets and detect features within data using a corollary method called Bayesian Inference-based Template Search; several proof-of-principle examples are provided. Altogether, this mathematical framework serves as an automated ‘engine’ capable of computationally executing analysis decisions currently made by visual inspection across the sciences.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

A General Spatiotemporal Imputation Framework for Missing Sensor Data

Many applications from precision agriculture, environmental monitoring and transportation networks rely on data collected across space and time over a large geographic area. Missing data poses a significant challenge for any data-driven inference and control tasks. Data imputation or the estimation of missing data can help fill these gaps by utilizing inherent spatial relationships and temporal patterns. A variety of spatiotemporal imputation models have been developed to address missing data in spatiotemporal datasets. However, these classical methods rely on the assumption that the underlying data follows a smooth trend and fail to provide accurate estimates when there is a large number of missing points in the data. Even though there are machine learning driven tensor completion approaches such as convolutional neural network based tensor completion (CoSTCo) that capture the non-linear relationships in the dataset, the transductive nature makes the algorithm less scalable. Thus, existing approaches for estimating the missing information do not effectively capture all dimensions of the spatiotemporal data structure, resulting in erroneous predictions and poor performance. The main contributions of this paper are: (1) We propose a novel inductive framework (G-LSTM) for missing data imputation that integrates a graph neural network with LSTMs to effectively capture both spatial and temporal dependencies. (2) Experimental results on a traffic dataset demonstrate that the proposed GNN integrated with an LSTM framework achieves improved imputation and maintains steady performance even when there are extreme missing conditions in comparison with the state-of-the-art imputation framework (i.e, CoSTCo). (3) The simulation results on a traffic network show up to 69% reduction in mean absolute error and 61% reduction in root mean square error when compared to CoSTCo.

Tharzeen, Aabila↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inferring microbial interactions with their environment from genomic and metagenomic data

Microbial communities assemble through a complex set of interactions between microbes and their environment, and the resulting metabolic impact on the host ecosystem can be profound. Microbial activity is known to impact human health, plant growth, water quality, and soil carbon storage which has lead to the development of many approaches and products meant to manipulate the microbiome. In order to understand, predict, and improve microbial community engineering, genome-scale modeling techniques have been developed to translate genomic data into inferred microbial dynamics. However, these techniques rely heavily on simulation to draw conclusions which may vary with unknown parameters or initial conditions, rather than more robust qualitative analysis. To better understand microbial community dynamics using genome-scale modeling, we provide a tool to investigate the network of interactions between microbes and environmental metabolites over time. Using our previously developed algorithm for simulating microbial communities from genome-scale metabolic models (GSMs), we infer the set of microbe-metabolite interactions within a microbial community in a particular environment. Because these interactions depend on the available environmental metabolites, we refer to the networks that we infer as metabolically contextualized , and so name our tool MetConSIN: Met abolically Con textualized S pecies I nteraction N etworks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Approach for Inferring Full-Scope Human Reliability Data Based on Simplified Simulator Data

This paper proposes a method for inferring full-scope human reliability data based on the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) data. It mainly focuses on the human errors observed when using simulators with different complexity levels. In the proposed method, the manner in which human error probabilities (HEPs) change as a result of increasing simulator complexity and how simulator complexity levels are quantified represent key information for inferring full-scope data. In the present study, SHEEP error data pertaining to actual professional operators using Rancor Microworld (Rancor) (i.e., a more simplified simulator) and Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS) (i.e., a less simplified simulator) were compared with the HuREX error data. An approach to quantifying simulator complexity levels was then proposed based on information theory and acquired eye-tracker data.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating Machine Learning Inference with GPUs in ProtoDUNE Data Processing

Abstract We study the performance of a cloud-based GPU-accelerated inference server to speed up event reconstruction in neutrino data batch jobs. Using detector data from the ProtoDUNE experiment and employing the standard DUNE grid job submission tools, we attempt to reprocess the data by running several thousand concurrent grid jobs, a rate we expect to be typical of current and future neutrino physics experiments. We process most of the dataset with the GPU version of our processing algorithm and the remainder with the CPU version for timing comparisons. We find that a 100-GPU cloud-based server is able to easily meet the processing demand, and that using the GPU version of the event processing algorithm is two times faster than processing these data with the CPU version when comparing to the newest CPUs in our sample. The amount of data transferred to the inference server during the GPU runs can overwhelm even the highest-bandwidth network switches, however, unless care is taken to observe network facility limits or otherwise distribute the jobs to multiple sites. We discuss the lessons learned from this processing campaign and several avenues for future improvements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning

We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning–Guided Boolean Matrix Inference for Real-Time O-RAN Conflict Detection

Open Radio Access Networks (O-RAN) are emerging, software-driven cellular architectures that promote flexibility by enabling components from different vendors to interoperate. Multiple control applications called xApps can independently adjust network parameters in near real time, often without awareness of each other's actions. This creates a system highly prone to unintended conflicts and performance degradation due to the inherent complexity of such openness. To model such systems and ultimately prevent or mitigate xApp conflicts, it is essential to understand the dynamic relationships between xApps (A), the control parameters they adjust (P), and the resulting KPI responses (K). While the mappings from A to P and from K to A can often be derived from xApp specifications, the relationship from P to K is typically hidden within the system’s dynamics and must be inferred from observed data. We propose a novel data-driven Boolean inference framework that uncovers the hidden P?K dependencies using machine learning and interpretable rule induction. Continuous parameters and KPIs are first binarized using decision tree classifiers, and a binary influence matrix L is then inferred by solving Boolean matrix equations over time. This compact representation improves interpretability and enables real-time tracking of dynamically evolving parameter-KPI dependencies. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in a realistic mobile handover scenario, where it accurately recovers the underlying logic and enables proactive conflict detection.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sequential Inference of Hospitalization Electronic Health Records Using Probabilistic Models

In the dynamic hospital setting, decision support can be a valuable tool for improving patient outcomes. Data-driven inference of future outcomes is challenging in this dynamic setting, where long sequences such as laboratory tests and medications are updated frequently. This is due in part to heterogeneity of data types and mixed-sequence types contained in variable length sequences. In this work we design a probabilistic unsupervised model for multiple arbitrary-length sequences contained in hospitalization Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. The model uses a latent variable structure and captures complex relationships between medications, diagnoses, laboratory tests, neurological assessments, and medications. It can be trained on original data, without requiring any lossy transformations or time binning. Inference algorithms are derived that use partial data to infer properties of the complete sequences, including their length and presence of specific values. We train this model on data from subjects receiving medical care in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California integrated healthcare delivery system. The results are evaluated against held-out data for predicting the length of sequences and presence of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) in hospitalization bed sequences. Our method outperforms a baseline approach, showing that in these experiments the trained model captures information in the sequences that is informative of their future values.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Modeling Framework for Computationally Efficient and Accurate Real-Time Ensemble Flood Forecasting With Uncertainty Quantification

A novel modeling framework that simultaneously improves accuracy, predictability, and computational efficiency is presented. It embraces the benefits of three modeling techniques integrated together for the first time: surrogate modeling, parameter inference, and data assimilation. The use of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates significantly decreases computational time. Parameter inference allows for model faster convergence, reduced uncertainty, and superior accuracy of simulated results. Ensemble Kalman filters assimilate errors that occur during forecasting. To examine the applicability and effectiveness of the integrated framework, we developed 18 approaches according to how surrogate models are constructed, what type of parameter distributions are used as model inputs, and whether model parameters are updated during the data assimilation procedure. We conclude that (1) PCE must be built over various forcing and flow conditions, and in contrast to previous studies, it does not need to be rebuilt at each time step; (2) model parameter specification that relies on constrained, posterior information of parameters (so-called Selected specification) can significantly improve forecasting performance and reduce uncertainty bounds compared to Random specification using prior information of parameters; and (3) no substantial differences in results exist between single and dual ensemble Kalman filters, but the latter better simulates flood peaks. The use of PCE effectively compensates for the computational load added by the parameter inference and data assimilation (up to ~80 times faster). Therefore, the presented approach contributes to a shift in modeling paradigm arguing that complex, high-fidelity hydrologic and hydraulic models should be increasingly adopted for real-time and ensemble flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

hIPPYlib-MUQ: A Bayesian Inference Software Framework for Integration of Data with Complex Predictive Models under Uncertainty

Bayesian inference provides a systematic framework for integration of data with mathematical models to quantify the uncertainty in the solution of the inverse problem. However, the solution of Bayesian inverse problems governed by complex forward models described by partial differential equations (PDEs) remains prohibitive with black-box Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We present hIPPYlib-MUQ, an extensible and scalable software framework that contains implementations of state-of-the art algorithms aimed to overcome the challenges of high-dimensional, PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems. These algorithms accelerate MCMC sampling by exploiting the geometry and intrinsic low-dimensionality of parameter space via derivative information and low rank approximation. The software integrates two complementary open-source software packages, hIPPYlib and MUQ. hIPPYlib solves PDE-constrained inverse problems using automatically-generated adjoint-based derivatives, but it lacks full Bayesian capabilities. MUQ provides a spectrum of powerful Bayesian inversion models and algorithms, but expects forward models to come equipped with gradients and Hessians to permit large-scale solution. By combining these two complementary libraries, we created a robust, scalable, and efficient software framework that realizes the benefits of each and allows us to tackle complex large-scale Bayesian inverse problems across a broad spectrum of scientific and engineering disciplines. To illustrate the capabilities of hIPPYlib-MUQ, we present a comparison of a number of MCMC methods available in the integrated software on several high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. These include problems characterized by both linear and nonlinear PDEs, various noise models, and different parameter dimensions. The results demonstrate that large (~ 50×) speedups over conventional black box and gradient-based MCMC algorithms can be obtained by exploiting Hessian information (from the log-posterior), underscoring the power of the integrated hIPPYlib-MUQ framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical data analysis of x-ray spectroscopy data enabled by neural network accelerated Bayesian inference

Bayesian inference applied to x-ray spectroscopy data analysis enables uncertainty quantification necessary to rigorously test theoretical models. However, when comparing to data, detailed atomic physics and radiation transfer calculations of x-ray emission from non-uniform plasma conditions are typically too slow to be performed in line with statistical sampling methods, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, differences in transition energies and x-ray opacities often make direct comparisons between simulated and measured spectra unreliable. Here, we present a spectral decomposition method that allows for corrections to line positions and bound–bound opacities to best fit experimental data, with the goal of providing quantitative feedback to improve the underlying theoretical models and guide future experiments. In this work, we use a neural network (NN) surrogate model to replace spectral calculations of isobaric hot-spots created in Kr-doped implosions at the National Ignition Facility. The NN was trained on calculations of x-ray spectra using an isobaric hot-spot model post-processed with Cretin, a multi-species atomic kinetics and radiation code. The speedup provided by the NN model to generate x-ray emission spectra enables statistical analysis of parameterized models with sufficient detail to accurately represent the physical system and extract the plasma parameters of interest.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimal binning of correlated measurements

Experimental measurements are commonly represented on a discrete grid, requiring a balance between granularity and statistical noise. Two strategies have traditionally been used to improve such representations: selecting an appropriate bin width to control discretization error and applying kernel-based smoothing to suppress fluctuations. Despite their shared goal, these approaches have largely developed independently, without a unified statistical description of how discretization and correlation jointly determine measurement precision. Here, we extend the discussion of optimal interval averaging to a correlation-aware setting by Gaussian process regression, which explicitly accounts for correlations among neighboring bins. Starting from first principles, we derive the mean-squared error of discretized measurements and obtain closed-form asymptotic expressions for the optimal bin width and correlation length. When recast in reduced variables, the theory reveals distinct universal scaling laws governing the error in the correlation-free and correlation-controlled regimes. Characterized by intrinsically smooth intensity profiles and counting-based statistics, neutron scattering measurements are well suited for demonstrating the enhanced error contraction enabled by inter-bin correlations. We show that such improvement is achievable over the experimentally accessible Q-range and across multiple instruments and material systems. These results show that explicitly accounting for correlations systematically reshapes the limits of precision in discretized, noise-limited measurements. More broadly, the framework provides a transferable statistical foundation for optimizing data representation, inference, and experimental design across the physical and data sciences.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗