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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity of Simulated Radiative Emission from Nitrogen Flows to Chemical Parameters

Numerical models of hypersonic flows rely on chemistry data inferred from experiments and quantum calculations. Experiments from NASA's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) measure the spectral emission of strong shocks in pure nitrogen flows. These spectral profiles are only approximately captured by numerical simulations. To address these discrepancies, one wishes to calibrate some of the chemical parameters to better match experiment. Because there are hundreds of parameters in the numerical model, a sensitivity analysis was carried out on the entire chemistry database to determine which parameters are most important to analyze in the future. In order to perform this work it was necessary to generate a consistent chemical database that interfaced with both the CFD and line-by-line radiation solver. Using Monte Carlo methods, the total Sobol index was calculated for important parameters. Twenty parameters were identified as important across the nitrogen system. However, it was noted that in some spectral regions, the parametric uncertainty was unable to bound EAST measurements. Further improvements could be made by increasing the parameter uncertainties or addressing other sources of modeling error.

Kaelan B Hansson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity of Simulated Radiative Emission from Nitrogen Flows to Chemical Parameters

Numerical models of hypersonic flows rely on chemistry data inferred from experiments and quantum calculations. Experiments from NASA's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) measure the spectral emission of strong shocks in pure nitrogen flows. These spectral profiles are only approximately captured by numerical simulations. To address these discrepancies, one wishes to calibrate some of the chemical parameters to better match experiment. Because there are hundreds of parameters in the numerical model, a sensitivity analysis was carried out on the entire chemistry database to determine which parameters are most important to analyze in the future. In order to perform this work it was necessary to generate a consistent chemical database that interfaced with both the CFD and line-by-line radiation solver. Using Monte Carlo methods, the total Sobol index was calculated for important parameters. Twenty parameters were identified as important across the nitrogen system. However, it was noted that in some spectral regions, the parametric uncertainty was unable to bound EAST measurements. Further improvements could be made by increasing the parameter uncertainties or addressing other sources of modeling error.

Kaelan Hansson↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian operator inference for data-driven reduced-order modeling

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian inverse problem with Gaussian prior and likelihood. The resulting posterior distribution characterizes the operators defining the reduced-order model, hence the predictions subsequently issued by the reduced-order model are endowed with uncertainty. The statistical moments of these predictions are estimated via a Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. Since the reduced models are fast to solve, this sampling is computationally efficient. Furthermore, the proposed Bayesian framework provides a statistical interpretation of the regularization term that is present in the deterministic operator inference problem, and the empirical Bayes approach of maximum marginal likelihood suggests a selection algorithm for the regularization hyperparameters. The proposed method is demonstrated on two examples: the compressible Euler equations with noise-corrupted observations, and a single-injector combustion process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sampling Low-Dimensional Markovian Dynamics for Preasymptotically Recovering Reduced Models from Data with Operator Inference

This work introduces a method for learning low-dimensional models from data of high-dimensional black-box dynamical systems. The novelty is that the learned models are exactly the reduced models that are traditionally constructed with classical projection-based model reduction techniques. Thus, the proposed approach learns models that are guaranteed to have the well-studied properties of reduced models known from model reduction, without requiring full knowledge of the governing equations and without requiring the operators of the high-dimensional systems. The key ingredient is a new data sampling scheme to obtain re-projected trajectories of high-dimensional systems that correspond to Markovian dynamics in low-dimensional subspaces. The exact recovery of reduced models from these re-projected trajectories is guaranteed pre-asymptotically under certain conditions for finite amounts of data and for a large class of systems with polynomial nonlinear terms. Numerical results demonstrate that the low-dimensional models learned with the proposed approach match reduced models from traditional model reduction up to numerical errors in practice. In conclusion, the numerical results further indicate that low-dimensional models fitted to re-projected trajectories are predictive even in situations where models fitted to trajectories without re-projection are inaccurate and unstable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1985

Confirmation of a 152 day periodicity in the occurrence of solar flares inferred from microwave data

Evidence for a periodicity of about 155 + or - 5 days in the production of energetic solar flares was reported in 1984 by Rieger et al. and Kiplinger et al. To see whether this periodicity is a persistent phenomenon, the occurrences of flares inferred from microwave data, which are available for most of the present and previous solar cycles, were examined. Strong confirmation of a 152 day periodicity in the time interval previously studied is found, demonstrating that these flares are a useful indicator for the observed periodicity. Evidence is found for persistence of the periodicity in the previous cycle (cycle 20). In cycle 20 the periodic modulation of the flare occurrence rate was weaker than in cycle 21, but the phase has apparently remained coherent through both cycles.

Bogart, R. S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data compression and inference in cosmology with self-supervised machine learning

ABSTRACT The influx of massive amounts of data from current and upcoming cosmological surveys necessitates compression schemes that can efficiently summarize the data with minimal loss of information. We introduce a method that leverages the paradigm of self-supervised machine learning in a novel manner to construct representative summaries of massive data sets using simulation-based augmentations. Deploying the method on hydrodynamical cosmological simulations, we show that it can deliver highly informative summaries, which can be used for a variety of downstream tasks, including precise and accurate parameter inference. We demonstrate how this paradigm can be used to construct summary representations that are insensitive to prescribed systematic effects, such as the influence of baryonic physics. Our results indicate that self-supervised machine learning techniques offer a promising new approach for compression of cosmological data as well as its analysis.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
NASA NTRS1993

An analysis of the Voyager 2 Ultraviolet Spectrometer occultation data at Uranus - Inferring heat sources and model atmospheres

Heat source information is derived here from the Voyager 2 Ultraviolet Spectrometer occultation data of Uranus. Analytic functions for the local heat dependence on altitude are used to obtain a temperature profile by solving the heat equation. The stellar entrance and exit occultation and a solar occultation are used to infer the thermal and density structure of the atmosphere. The least squares fit solution to the solar occultation data gives one source located at 1.8 x 10 exp -5 microbar with a strength of 0.056 +/- 0.01 erg/sq cm/s. Latitudinal temperature gradients are obtained.

Stevens, Michael H.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating Building Energy Code Compliance and Savings Potential through Large-Scale Simulation with Models Inferred by Field Data

Building energy code compliance is the crucial link between the actual energy savings and the efficiency prescribed in energy codes. A research project aiming to identify opportunities to reduce energy consumption in new single-family residential construction by increasing compliance with the building energy code was conducted in several states of the United States. The study was comprised of three phases: (1) a baseline study to document typical practice and identify opportunities for improvement based on empirical data gathered from the field; (2) an education and training phase targeting the opportunities identified; and (3) a post-study to assess whether a reduction in average state-wide energy use could be achieved following the education and training phase. We proposed a novel methodology based on large-scale building energy simulation inferred by limited field data to assess the performance of a large population of homes. This paper presents the methodology, findings, and results of this study. The state-wide average energy consumption decreased at Phase III from Phase I for five of the seven states involved in the analysis. The measure-level savings potential analysis shows an overall reduction. Overall, the training and education phase plays a recognizable role in improving compliance with building energy codes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning Nonlinear Reduced Models from Data with Operator Inference

This review discusses Operator Inference, a nonintrusive reduced modeling approach that incorporates physical governing equations by defining a structured polynomial form for the reduced model, and then learns the corresponding reduced operators from simulated training data. The polynomial model form of Operator Inference is sufficiently expressive to cover a wide range of nonlinear dynamics found in fluid mechanics and other fields of science and engineering, while still providing efficient reduced model computations. The learning steps of Operator Inference are rooted in classical projection-based model reduction; thus, some of the rich theory of model reduction can be applied to models learned with Operator Inference. This connection to projection-based model reduction theory offers a pathway toward deriving error estimates and gaining insights to improve predictions. Furthermore, through formulations of Operator Inference that preserve Hamiltonian and other structures, important physical properties such as energy conservation can be guaranteed in the predictions of the reduced model beyond the training horizon. This review illustrates key computational steps of Operator Inference through a large-scale combustion example.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed regularization and structure preservation for learning stable reduced models from data with operator inference

Operator inference learns low-dimensional dynamical-system models with polynomial nonlinear terms from trajectories of high-dimensional physical systems (non-intrusive model reduction). Here, this work focuses on the large class of physical systems that can be well described by models with quadratic and cubic nonlinear terms and proposes a regularizer for operator inference that induces a stability bias onto learned models. The proposed regularizer is physics informed in the sense that it penalizes higher-order terms with large norms and so explicitly leverages the polynomial model form that is given by the underlying physics. This means that the proposed approach judiciously learns from data and physical insights combined, rather than from either data or physics alone. Additionally, a formulation of operator inference is proposed that enforces model constraints for preserving structure such as symmetry and definiteness in linear terms. Numerical results demonstrate that models learned with operator inference and the proposed regularizer and structure preservation are accurate and stable even in cases where using no regularization and Tikhonov regularization leads to models that are unstable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Use of a Satellite Climatological Data Set to Infer Large Scale Three Dimensional Flow Characteristics

Ever since the first satellite image loops from the 6.3 micron water vapor channel on the METEOSAT-1 in 1978, there have been numerous efforts (many to a great degree of success) to relate the water vapor radiance patterns to familiar atmospheric dynamic quantities. The realization of these efforts is becoming evident with the merging of satellite derived winds into predictive models (Velden et al., 1997; Swadley and Goerss, 1989). Another parameter that has been quantified from satellite water vapor channel measurements is upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) (e.g., Soden and Bretherton, 1996; Schmetz and Turpeinen, 1988). These humidity measurements, in turn, can be used to quantify upper tropospheric water vapor and its transport to more accurately diagnose climate changes (Lerner et al., 1998; Schmetz et al. 1995a) and quantify radiative processes in the upper troposphere. Also apparent in water vapor imagery animations are regions of subsiding and ascending air flow. Indeed, a component of the translated motions we observe are due to vertical velocities. The few attempts at exploiting this information have been met with a fair degree of success. Picon and Desbois (1990) statistically related Meteosat monthly mean water vapor radiances to six standard pressure levels of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model vertical velocities and found correlation coefficients of about 0.50 or less. This paper presents some preliminary results of viewing climatological satellite water vapor data in a different fashion. Specifically, we attempt to infer the three dimensional flow characteristics of the mid- to upper troposphere as portrayed by GOES VAS during the warm ENSO event (1987) and a subsequent cold period in 1998.

Lerner, Jeffrey A.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Correlation of sigma deg (0 deg) inferred wind speed estimates with NOAA hindcast data

Microwave remote sensing is discussed in terms of using GEOS-3 data to infer surface wind speed. Topics covered include: determining surface wind speed from backscattering, estimating surface winds from near normal incidence scattering, and response of the centimeter wavelength components of the ocean surface height spectrum to the wind.

Brown, G. S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing and benchmarking the fidelity of posterior inference methods for astrophysics data analysis

In this era of large and complex astronomical survey data, interpreting, validating, and comparing inference techniques becomes increasingly difficult. This is particularly critical for emerging inference methods like Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), which offer significant speedup potential and posterior modeling flexibility, especially when deep learning is incorporated. We present a study to assess and compare the performance and uncertainty prediction capability of Bayesian inference algorithms – from traditional MCMC sampling of analytic functions to deep learning-enabled SBI. We focus on testing the capacity of hierarchical inference modeling in those scenarios. Before we extend this study to cosmology, we first use astrophysical simulation data to ensure interpretability. We demonstrate a probabilistic programming implementation of hierarchical and non-hierarchical Bayesian inference using simulations derived from the DeepBench software library, a benchmarking tool developed by our group that generates simple and controllable astrophysical objects from first principles. This study will enable astronomers and physicists to harness the inference potential of these methods with confidence.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Redshift data and statistical inference

Frequency histograms and the 'power spectrum analysis' (PSA) method, the latter developed by Yu & Peebles (1969), have been widely employed as techniques for establishing the existence of periodicities. We provide a formal analysis of these two classes of methods, including controlled numerical experiments, to better understand their proper use and application. In particular, we note that typical published applications of frequency histograms commonly employ far greater numbers of class intervals or bins than is advisable by statistical theory sometimes giving rise to the appearance of spurious patterns. The PSA method generates a sequence of random numbers from observational data which, it is claimed, is exponentially distributed with unit mean and variance, essentially independent of the distribution of the original data. We show that the derived random processes is nonstationary and produces a small but systematic bias in the usual estimate of the mean and variance. Although the derived variable may be reasonably described by an exponential distribution, the tail of the distribution is far removed from that of an exponential, thereby rendering statistical inference and confidence testing based on the tail of the distribution completely unreliable. Finally, we examine a number of astronomical examples wherein these methods have been used giving rise to widespread acceptance of statistically unconfirmed conclusions.

Newman, William I.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grandparent Inference from Genetic Data: The Potential for Parentage-Based Tagging Programs to Identify Offspring of Hatchery Strays

Abstract Fisheries managers routinely use hatcheries to increase angling opportunity. Many hatcheries operate as segregated programs where hatchery-origin fish are not intended to spawn with natural-origin conspecifics in order to prevent potential negative effects on the natural-origin population. Currently available techniques to monitor the frequency with which hatchery-origin strays successfully spawn in the wild rely on either genetic differentiation between the hatchery- and natural-origin fish or extensive sampling of fish on the spawning grounds. We present a method to infer grandparent–grandchild trios by using only genotypes from two putative grandparents and one putative grandchild. We developed estimators of false-positive and false-negative error rates and showed that genetic panels containing 500–700 single-nucleotide polymorphisms or 200–300 microhaplotypes are expected to allow application of this technique for monitoring segregated hatchery programs. We discuss the ease with which this technique can be implemented by pre-existing parentage-based tagging programs and provide an R package that applies the method.

Delomas, Thomas A. (ORCID:000000015154759X)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian inference of Stochastic reaction networks using Multifidelity Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells.These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not directly measurable and must be inferred from experimental data. Bayesian inference provides a rigorous probabilistic frame-work for identifying these parameters by finding a posterior parameter distribution that captures their uncertainty.Traditional computational methods for solving inference problems such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods based on classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm involve numerous serial evaluations of the likelihood function, which in turn requires expensive forward solutions of the chemical master equation (CME). We propose an alternate approach based on a multifidelity extension of the Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ST-MCMC) sampler. This algorithm is built upon Sequential Monte Carlo and solves the Bayesian inference problem by decomposing it into a sequence of efficiently solved subproblems that gradually increase both model fidelity and the influence of the observed data. We reformulate the finite state projection (FSP) algorithm, a well-known method for solving the CME, to produce a hierarchy of surrogate master equations to be used in this multifidelity scheme. To determine the appropriate fidelity, we introduce a novel information-theoretic criteria that seeks to extract the most information about the ultimate Bayesian posterior from each model in the hierarchy without inducing significant bias. This novel sampling scheme is tested with high performance computing resources using biologically relevant problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Signature analysis of high-throughput transcriptomics screening data for mechanistic inference and chemical grouping

Abstract High-throughput transcriptomics (HTTr) uses gene expression profiling to characterize the biological activity of chemicals in in vitro cell-based test systems. As an extension of a previous study testing 44 chemicals, HTTr was used to screen an additional 1,751 unique chemicals from the EPA’s ToxCast collection in MCF7 cells using 8 concentrations and an exposure duration of 6 h. We hypothesized that concentration-response modeling of signature scores could be used to identify putative molecular targets and cluster chemicals with similar bioactivity. Clustering and enrichment analyses were conducted based on signature catalog annotations and ToxPrint chemotypes to facilitate molecular target prediction and grouping of chemicals with similar bioactivity profiles. Enrichment analysis based on signature catalog annotation identified known mechanisms of action (MeOAs) associated with well-studied chemicals and generated putative MeOAs for other active chemicals. Chemicals with predicted MeOAs included those targeting estrogen receptor (ER), glucocorticoid receptor (GR), retinoic acid receptor (RAR), the NRF2/KEAP/ARE pathway, AP-1 activation, and others. Using reference chemicals for ER modulation, the study demonstrated that HTTr in MCF7 cells was able to stratify chemicals in terms of agonist potency, distinguish ER agonists from antagonists, and cluster chemicals with similar activities as predicted by the ToxCast ER Pathway model. Uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP) embedding of signature-level results identified novel ER modulators with no ToxCast ER Pathway model predictions. Finally, UMAP combined with ToxPrint chemotype enrichment was used to explore the biological activity of structurally related chemicals. The study demonstrates that HTTr can be used to inform chemical risk assessment by determining in vitro points of departure, predicting chemicals’ MeOA and grouping chemicals with similar bioactivity profiles.

Toxicology↗