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At least 55 records · Page 3

First Evidence of Local E × B Drift in the Divertor Influencing the Structure and Stability of Confined Plasma near the Edge of Fusion Devices

The structure of the edge plasma in a magnetic confinement system has a strong impact on the overall plasma performance. Here we uncover for the first time a magnetic-field-direction dependent density shelf, i.e., local flattening of density radial profile near the magnetic separatrix, in high confinement plasmas with low edge collisionality in the DIII-D tokamak. The density shelf is correlated with a doubly peaked density profile near the divertor target plate, which tends to occur for operation with the ion BX∇B drift direction away from the X-point, as currently employed for DIII-D advanced tokamak scenarios. This double-peaked divertor plasma profile is connected via the EXB drifts, arising from a strong radial electric field induced by the radial electron temperature gradient near the divertor target. The drifts lead to the reversal of the poloidal flow above the divertor target, resulting in the formation of the density shelf. The edge density shelf can be also enhanced at higher heating power, preventing large, periodic bursts of the plasma, i.e. Edge-localized Modes, in the edge region, consistent with ideal magnetohydrodynamics calculations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of atmospheric turbulence on performance and loads of wind turbines: knowledge gaps and research challenges

Wind energy harvesting from the atmosphere takes place in the atmospheric boundary layer. The boundary layer shear and buoyancy create three-dimensional turbulent eddies spanning a range of scales that form a continuous forward cascade of kinetic energy to the smallest scales of motion where energy is dissipated. Large-scale atmospheric circulations modulate the boundary layer turbulence, characterized by coherence and intermittency. As wind turbines grow in size and the integrated control of both turbines and wind farms spans greater distances, the relationship between the scales of atmospheric turbulence and the design and operation of wind energy facilities has entered new territory. The boundary layer turbulence impacts both wind turbine power production and turbine loads. Optimizing wind turbine and wind farm performance requires an understanding of how turbulence affects both wind turbine efficiency and reliability. While the characteristics of atmospheric boundary layer turbulence have been observed and studied in detail over the last few decades, there are still significant gaps in our understanding of the impact of turbulence on wind power resources and wind farm operations. This paper outlines the current state of turbulence research relevant to wind energy applications and points to gaps in our knowledge that need to be addressed to effectively utilize wind resources.

Kosović, Branko [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, M↗

Query relaxation for portable brick-based applications

Semantic metadata standards pave the way for interoperability by providing building operators and application developers with common schemes to describe building resources. Applications can query building metadata models to retrieve the set of entities and relationships they need to operate, instead of hard-coding references to specific points and objects from the underlying data sources. Currently, querying such models requires the developer to be very specific when formulating queries in order to obtain meaningful answers (or any answer). The developer is inevitably expected to be familiar with the systems and components of the buildings being queried, as well as the schema used to represent them. The variety of buildings - both in the composition of their subsystems and in how they happen to be modeled - means that the developer will need to use multiple queries in order to retrieve necessary results. This is complex, time-consuming and error-prone. To address this limitation, we investigate query relaxation as a technique to facilitate discovery of meaningful building resources in a collection of ontology-based buildings data. We evaluate our query relaxation approach over a set of Brick models and demonstrate its use in the context of real-world building applications.

Brick↗

Large reductions in Permian Basin methane intensity shown in multi-year comparison of aerially-visible methane emissions

Spanning the US states of Texas and New Mexico, the Permian Basin has been a hotspot of methane emissions from oil and natural gas activity 1–4, although studies disagree over the magnitude of these emissions. The most comprehensive measurement campaigns published were conducted in 2019 1–5 .There have been large changes in the energy industry since then, including in the prices of oil and gas, both state and federal regulatory environments, investor and activist pressure over methane emissions, and the adoption of new technologies and policies by energy operators. Understanding how any or all of these might influence methane emissions is important for policy makers, oil and gas operators, and other stakeholders. We characterize the time evolution of Permian Basin methane emissions using a series of comprehensive aerial surveys conducted every year from 2020-2023 and compare them to the 2019 results cited above. To maintain comparability, all the data sets are from surveys using Insight M point source methane sensing technology. The scope of these surveys expanded over time: from 33-46% of wells, oil production, and gas production in 2020 to 60-65% in 2021, to 84% of wells and over 90% of both oil and gas production in 2023. These surveys by Insight M also include hundreds of gas processing plants and compressor stations as well as 1000s of km of gathering and transmission pipelines. Considering only the aerially detected portion of emissions (typically the majority of the total in such surveys 4), we find reductions of more than 70% in methane emissions intensity compared to the 2019 New Mexico-only Insight M survey, with variation depending on the year 3,4. Notably, although sources below 100 kg/hr contributed less than 10% of aerially measured emissions the 2019 New Mexico survey 3, these smaller sources constitute a larger proportion of total aerially measured emissions (although not the majority) in 2020-2023. Production facilities and gathering pipelines are responsible for the larges shares of total emissions, followed by compressor stations and gas processing plants. Permian methane emissions were also measured in a comprehensive 2019 Permian-wide survey by the Carbon Mapper team 2. That analysis led to a lower total emissions estimate at the time 4. These new Insight M-based emission rates are still roughly 30-70% lower than the aerially measured portion of the 2019 Carbon Mapper-based estimates 4. Further work is needed to harmonize these surveys in space and time to create the most intercomparable numbers possible 5. Additional analysis is needed to compare our findings to the more spatially constrained 2020, 2021, and 2023 Carbon Mapper surveys in the Permian 4,6. The evidence is strong from these two survey teams that emissions intensity has declined significantly since 2019. Reasons for this trend are currently unclear but point to possible success of emissions control programs. Future work investigating frequency, source, and operator-specific intensities could provide insights into the causes of this promising trend.

methane, oil and gas, data science, remote sensing↗

The Cosmological Bootstrap: Spinning correlators from symmetries and factorization

We extend the cosmological bootstrap to correlators involving massless spinning particles, focusing on spin-1 and spin-2. In de Sitter space, these correlators are constrained both by symmetries and by locality. In particular, the de Sitter isometries become conformal symmetries on the future boundary of the spacetime, which are reflected in a set of Ward identities that the boundary correlators must satisfy. We solve these Ward identities by acting with weight-shifting operators on scalar seed solutions. Using this weight-shifting approach, we derive three- and four-point correlators of massless spin-1 and spin-2 fields with conformally coupled scalars. Four-point functions arising from tree-level exchange are singular in particular kinematic configurations, and the coefficients of these singularities satisfy certain factorization properties. We show that in many cases these factorization limits fix the structure of the correlators uniquely, without having to solve the conformal Ward identities. The additional constraint of locality for massless spinning particles manifests itself as current conservation on the boundary. We find that the four-point functions only satisfy current conservation if the s, t, and u-channels are related to each other, leading to nontrivial constraints on the couplings between the conserved currents and other operators in the theory. For spin-1 currents this implies charge conservation, while for spin-2 currents we recover the equivalence principle from a purely boundary perspective. For multiple spin-1 fields, we recover the structure of Yang--Mills theory. Finally, we apply our methods to slow-roll inflation and derive a few phenomenologically relevant scalar-tensor three-point functions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Using energy storage systems to extend the life of hydropower plants

Despite their advantages, distributed energy resources (DERs) bring inherent uncertainty and variability into the landscape of modern power systems. As DER penetration grows, conventional generators like hydropower plants have to respond more often to arrest the imbalance in the net load. Hydropower turbines provide their best operational performance with minimal wear and tear when operating at regions of maximum efficiency. However, the current needs for hydropower plants require them to operate under varying load conditions and thus sub-optimal operating points leading to additional stress. To relieve the hydropower plants, this paper proposes a hybridization strategy where a hydropower unit is paired with an energy storage system (ESS) to increase operational flexibility and mitigate damage to the hydro plant. Models are developed to represent the operation of the hybrid system, quantify degradation, and assess economic benefits. Moreover, an innovative controller disaggregates the market dispatch signal into separate control setpoints for the ESS and hydropower unit. In case studies performed on a real-world hydropower facility, it was found that the ESS-based hybridization can extend the life of the hydropower plant by 5% on average. Notably, the economic benefits from reduced maintenance and deferred investment are estimated to be around $3.6 million.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Computing the Central Charge of the 3D Ising CFT Using Quantum Finite Elements

The 3D Ising conformal field theory (CFT) describes different physical systems, such as uniaxial magnets or fluids, at their critical points. In absence of an analytical solution for the 3D Ising model, the scaling dimensions and operator product expansion (OPE) coefficients characterizing this CFT must be determined numerically. The currently most-cited values for these quantities have been obtained from the conformal bootstrap, while lattice calculations have so far only produced reliable results for the scaling dimensions involved in calculating the critical exponents. Using Quantum Finite Elements to investigate critical \(\phi^4\)-theory on \(\mathbb{R}\times\mathbb{S}^2\), we show in this work that it is possible to extract scaling dimensions and OPE coefficients of the 3D Ising CFT by fitting the lattice four-point function with expectations from the operator product expansion for the radially quantized CFT and extrapolating to the continuum limit. This way, we have for the first time been able to use Monte Carlo simulations to compute the central charge of the theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Physics basis for the reference flat-top plasma scenario in the ST–E1 fusion power plant

As part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Milestone-Based Fusion Energy Development Program, Tokamak Energy has completed the pre-concept design of the ST–E1 fusion power plant. ST–E1 is envisaged to operate in two phases: a pilot plant phase, targeting sustained net power production of 300 - 500 MWe for a duration >1 hr, followed by a commercial power plant phase targeting steady-state operations and a normalised overnight capital cost of ⩽12 000 $\$$/kWe. The design process adopted was highly iterative, integrating all major plant systems and progressing in a phased fidelity approach. At the pre-conceptual stage, the emphasis has been on exploring the design space, identifying the main system-level trade-offs, and making the key decisions that define the overall plant concept, rather than optimising a single operating point. This paper, part of a focused collection detailing the ST–E1 pre-concept design, addresses the development of a series of reference flat-top plasma operating points for the pilot plant phase. A modelling workflow was established to develop and assess candidate plasma design points and explore key dependencies. The workflow includes integrated core plasma modelling, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability assessment, equilibrium generation, scrape-off-layer and exhaust modelling, heating & current drive design and optimisation, and turbulent transport modelling. Using this framework, the impact of several key parameters on the flat-top operating space was investigated, including the density limit, core radiation fraction and divertor power loading, level of external heating and curent drive power and assumed pedestal characteristics. The MHD stability, controllability and micro-stability characteristics of these plasmas were also analysed. These investigations informed the definition of a set of fully non-inductive, flat-top reference operating points that satisfy the high-level ST–E1 mission, including a low and high density case, a case that is stable to resistive wall modes and a case with reduced divertor power loading.

ST–E1↗

LaBr 3 : Ce self-activation analysis for measuring fast neutron fields

Measurement of the fast neutron production rate in deuterium–tritium (D–T) fusion reactions is important for applications such as active interrogation, fusion diagnostics, and borehole logging. Such measurements are typically performed by neutron activation analysis of metal foils, especially copper. Copper foil activation analysis requires efficiency and energy calibrations of the detector used to measure the foil, and it relies on the detection of 511 keV gamma rays, which are prominent in the active background when neutrons are being produced. Alternatives, such as 79m Br produced by inelastic neutron scattering on 79 Br, are limited by short half-life, low-energy gamma emission, and inability to selectively measure D–T neutrons. This work describes a novel alternative approach to measure ≳10 MeV neutron fields based on self-activation analysis of a LaBr 3 :Ce detector. The activity of 78 Br, the activation product of the 79 Br(n,2n) 78 Br reaction, is used to determine the neutron flux and infer the neutron production rate. We experimentally demonstrate the method with a cylindrical LaBr 3 :Ce crystal with a diameter and height of 3.81 cm that was placed at an ~18 cm distance from the neutron production point, at a 90° angle with respect to the deuteron beam in a D–T neutron generator. Operating voltage and current of the generator were adjusted to evaluate the technique’s performance over a nominal generator output range of approximately (1 - 9) x 10 7 n/s. The neutron output obtained from LaBr 3 :Ce activation agrees to within three standard deviations of the output obtained using copper activation. The self-activation technique can be conveniently employed in a variety of applications to simplify measurements of fast neutrons produced in D–T fusion reactions.

Active interrogationLaBr3↗

Updated sustainability status of cadmium telluride thin‐film photovoltaic systems and projections

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the up-to-date life-cycle sustainability status of cadmium-telluride based photovoltaic (PV) systems. Current production modules (Series 6 and Series 7) are analyzed in terms of their energy performance and environmental footprint and compared with the older series 4 module production and current single-crystalline Silicon (sc-Si) module production. For fixed-tilt systems with Series 6 modules operating under average US irradiation of 1800 kWh/m 2 /year, the global warming potential (GWP) is reduced from 16 g CO 2eq /kWh in Series 4 systems to 10 CO 2 eq /kWh in Series 6 systems. For operation in US-SW irradiation of 2300 kWh/m 2 /year, the GWP is reduced from 11 to 8 CO 2eq /kWh and for 1-axis tracking systems operating in Phoenix, Arizona, with point-of array irradiation of 3051 kWh/m 2 /year the GWP is reduced to 6.5 CO 2eq /kWh. Similar reductions have happened in all environmental indicators. Energy payback times (EPBT) of currently installed systems range from 0.6 years for fixed–tilt ground–mounted installations at average US irradiation at latitude tilt installations to 0.3 years for one-axis trackers at high US-SW irradiation, considering average fossil-fuel dominated electricity grids with fuel to electricity conversion efficiency of 0.3. The resulting energy return on energy investment (EROI) also depends on the conversion efficiency of the electricity grid and on the operation life expectance. For a 30-year operational life and grid conversion efficiency of 0.3, EROI ranges from 50 (at US average irradiation) to 70 for US-SW irradiation. The EROI declines with increased grid conversion efficiency; for CdTe PV operating in south California with grid conversion efficiency of 49%, the EROI is about 50 and is projected to fall to 30 when the state's 2030 target of 80% renewable energy penetration materializes. Material alternatives that show a potential of further reductions in degradation rates and materials for enhanced encapsulation that would enable longer operation lives have also been investigated. A degradation rate of 0.3%/year, which has been verified by accelerated testing, is assumed in 30-year scenarios; this is projected to be reduced to 0.2%/year in the near-term and potentially to 0.1%/year in the longer term. With such low degradation rates and enhanced edge-sealing, modules can last 40- to 50-years. Consequently, all impact indicators will be proportionally reduced while EROI will increase. This detailed LCA was conducted according to ISO standards and IEA PVPS Task 12 guidelines. Furthermore, the study revealed that the choices of system models, methods and temporal system boundaries can significantly impact the results and points out to the need to include assumptions regarding these choices in the “transparency in reporting” requirements listed in the IEA PVPS Task 12 Guidelines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quantification of 238U Holdup using Iterative, Point-Cloud-Based Compton Imaging

U holdup has impacts on several aspects of operation: Worker dose, Criticality safety, Safeguards, Outage planning. Generalized Geometry Holdup (GGH) currently estimates U mass within a high uncertainty band (± 50%). This method seeks to improve this uncertainty via quantitative Compton imaging.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Geometry of conformal manifolds and the inversion formula

Families of conformal field theories are naturally endowed with a Riemannian geometry which is locally encoded by correlation functions of exactly marginal operators. We show that the curvature of such conformal manifolds can be computed using Euclidean and Lorentzian inversion formulae, which combine the operator content of the conformal field theory into an analytic function. Analogously, operators of fixed dimension define bundles over the conformal manifold whose curvatures can also be computed using inversion formulae. These results relate curvatures to integrated four-point correlation functions which are sensitive only to the behavior of the theory at separated points. We apply these inversion formulae to derive convergent sum rules expressing the curvature in terms of the spectrum of local operators and their three-point function coefficients. We further show that the curvature can smoothly diverge only if a conserved current appears in the spectrum, or if the theory develops a continuum. We verify our results explicitly in 2d examples. In particular, for 2d (2,2) superconformal field theories we derive a lower bound on the scalar curvature, which is saturated by free theories when the central charge is a multiple of three.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Extraction of Vibration Data with Imaging

To date, the primary sensing technology used to measure the vibration response has been accelerometers and strain gages mounted directly to the structure and using either wired or, more recently, wireless telemetry. Cost issues with these sensors and the associated data acquisition systems typically limit the numbers that are deployed on in situ structures. Although there are a few structures with larger sensing counts that in some cases exceed over 1000 sensors, more typical numbers range from ten to one hundred sensors resulting in low spatial resolution when they are applied to physically large systems. When one considers that nuclear power plant structures usually have complex geometries, material properties, connectivity and boundary conditions, it is clear these current approaches to vibration measurements can only provide limited information about a system’s dynamics response characteristics. As an alternative, many non-contact measurement technologies have emerged, including point wise measurement methods such as Global Positioning System (GPS), microwave interferometry, and laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV), as well as simultaneous full-field measurement methods such as electronic speckle pattern interferometry, holography interferometry, and muon tomography, some of which can provide high spatial resolution measurements. Among these methods, digital video imaging techniques have emerged as a feasible solution for full-field vibration measurements that provide significantly more detailed dynamic response information because every pixel becomes a measurement point. Furthermore, recent advances in image processing and computer vision algorithms have been successfully used to process video data for experimental and operational modal analysis. Such full-field measurements have the potential to significantly improve many current structural assessment procedures including system identification (modal parameter estimation), structural health monitoring, load reconstruction, model validation, and model updating. Furthermore, more recent full-field imaging techniques can be accomplished with relatively low-cost, commercially-available off-the-shelf cameras. However, these measurement procedures have other limitations that must be considered such as the ability to only measure visibly accessible points on a structure and a more limited dynamic range and bandwidth than can be achieved with accelerometers or strain gages.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗