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Nitrification is a minor source of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) in an agricultural landscape and declines with increasing management intensity

Abstract The long‐term contribution of nitrification to nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from terrestrial ecosystems is poorly known and thus poorly constrained in biogeochemical models. Here, using Bayesian inference to couple 25 years of in situ N 2 O flux measurements with site‐specific Michaelis–Menten kinetics of nitrification‐derived N 2 O, we test the relative importance of nitrification‐derived N 2 O across six cropped and unmanaged ecosystems along a management intensity gradient in the U.S. Midwest. We found that the maximum potential contribution from nitrification to in situ N 2 O fluxes was 13%–17% in a conventionally fertilized annual cropping system, 27%–42% in a low‐input cover‐cropped annual cropping system, and 52%–63% in perennial systems including a late successional deciduous forest. Actual values are likely to be <10% of these values because of low N 2 O yields in cultured nitrifiers (typically 0.04%–8% of NH 3 oxidized) and competing sinks for available in situ. Most nitrification‐derived N 2 O was produced by ammonia‐oxidizing bacteria rather than archaea, who appeared responsible for no more than 30% of nitrification‐derived N 2 O production in all but one ecosystem. Although the proportion of nitrification‐derived N 2 O production was lowest in annual cropping systems, these ecosystems nevertheless produced more nitrification‐derived N 2 O (higher V max ) than perennial and successional ecosystems. We conclude that nitrification is minor relative to other sources of N 2 O in all ecosystems examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rapid denitrification of nitrate-contaminated groundwater in a low-gradient blackwater stream valley

Leaching of excess nitrogen (N) to groundwater in fertilized landscapes can overwhelm natural biogeochemical processes and cause long-term eutrophication of aquatic systems. We investigated N fate and transport from an intensively managed short-rotation woody crop (Pinus taeda) plantation through the riparian zone of an intermittent, low-gradient blackwater stream. Fertilization of the P. taeda plantation on the uplands resulted in contamination of groundwater with nitrate concentrations between 0.9 and 1.9 mg N L -1 . No corresponding increase in nitrate was observed in stream water or shallow groundwater in the riparian zone. Groundwater travel-time modeling predicted that N from near-stream, upland plantation areas should have reached streams during the monitoring period. Two years of measuring N species in well water in contrasting landscape positions (within the plantation, swale, riparian edge, forested hillslope, and valley), indicated rapid nitrate transformation and denitrification within the forested wetland valleys. Denitrification in the shallow groundwater system within the toeslopes and the riparian zone was estimated to have removed > 90% of nitrate. Finally, these results highlight the importance of riparian zones as pathways for the removal of N and for controlling downstream N loads.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Connecting agriculture and renewable energy: insights into microclimatic changes, physiological, biochemical, and yield responses under agrivoltaics: a review

Agrivoltaics, the synergistic integration of agriculture and solar energy production on the same piece of land, has emerged as a compelling dual-use solution that maximizes land productivity while simultaneously addressing the need for sustainable agricultural practices and renewable energy generation. Despite the growing global interest in this dual-use system, the microclimatic shifts created beneath solar panels and their consequences for crop performance remain insufficiently synthesized. This review highlights the intricate interactions between agrivoltaics systems and plant microclimates, discussing their impacts on various physiological processes, metabolic pathways, and overall yield responses in different crop species. Evidence indicates that moderated light intensity and altered microclimates can enhance water-use efficiency, stabilize photosynthetic function, and trigger beneficial metabolic adjustments; however, responses remain highly species-specific and strongly dependent on regional climate conditions and panel configuration. Yield outcomes vary widely among vegetables, cereals, pulses, and fruit crops, highlighting the necessity for tailored agronomic strategies and crop selection within agrivoltaic designs. A critical knowledge gap identified in this review concerns the limited understanding of molecular and omics-level responses underlying plant adaptation to agrivoltaic environments. We further provide a detailed and interdisciplinary overview of adaptive agronomic strategies, and optimal crop selection, tailored to agrivoltaic systems. Despite the benefits of land use efficiency and simultaneous food and energy production, challenges remain concerning initial investment, technological adaptation, social and legal barriers, and shade-induced yield penalties. Further research in this area will be critical to enhancing the agricultural, environmental, and economic sustainability of agrivoltaics while simultaneously augmenting their practical utility and appeal to farmers in the future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Alternative splicing of OsGS1;1 affects nitrogen‐use efficiency, grain development, and amylose content in rice

SUMMARY Excessive nitrogen fertilizer application is harmful to the environment and reduces the quality of cereal crops. Maintaining crop yields under low nitrogen (LN) conditions and improving quality are important goals for cereal crop breeding. Although the effects of nitrogen assimilation on crop nitrogen‐use efficiency (NUE) have been intensively studied, natural variations of the key assimilation genes underlying grain development and quality are largely unclear. Here, we identified an NUE‐associated gene, OsGS1;1 , encoding glutamine synthase, through genome‐wide association analysis, followed by validation experiments and functional analysis. Fifteen single‐nucleotide polymorphisms in the OsGS1;1 region led to alternative splicing that generated two functional transcripts: OsGS1;1a and OsGS1;1b . The elite haplotype of OsGS1;1 showed high OsGS1;1b activity, which improved NUE, affected grain development, and reduced amylose content. The results show that OsGS1;1 , which is induced under LN conditions, affects grain formation by regulating sugar metabolism and may provide a new avenue for the breeding of high‐yield and high‐quality rice ( Oryza sativa ).

Liu, Xiaolan↗

Land conversion to energy crops for sustainable aviation fuel production reduces greenhouse gas emissions in the United States

Energy crops will be critical for scaling up production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel in the United States and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Here we examine the economic incentives for the extent and type of land conversion needed to scale up fuel production from a mix of cellulosic feedstocks and quantify its greenhouse gas intensity. We show that even with the availability of marginal non-cropland, there will be incentives for converting cropland to produce energy crops as the price of sustainable aviation fuel increases. But contrary to expectations, we find that scaling up fuel production by converting more cropland and more non-cropland from existing uses to energy crops lowers its net greenhouse gas intensity, due to high soil carbon sequestration rate of energy crops, even after considering land use change emissions. The potential savings in emissions are larger than the foregone soil carbon accumulation benefits from keeping that land in current uses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using supervised machine-learning approaches to understand abiotic stress tolerance and design resilient crops

Abiotic stresses such as drought, heat, cold, salinity and flooding significantly impact plant growth, development and productivity. As the planet has warmed, these abiotic stresses have increased in frequency and intensity, affecting the global food supply and making it imperative to develop stress-resilient crops. In the past 20 years, the development of omics technologies has contributed to the growth of datasets for plants grown under a wide range of abiotic environments. Integration of these rapidly growing data using machine-learning (ML) approaches can complement existing breeding efforts by providing insights into the mechanisms underlying plant responses to stressful conditions, which can be used to guide the design of resilient crops. In this review, we introduce ML approaches and provide examples of how researchers use these approaches to predict molecular activities, gene functions and genotype responses under stressful conditions. Finally, we consider the potential and challenges of using such approaches to enable the design of crops that are better suited to a changing environment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Crops under stress: can we mitigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and launch the ‘Resilience Revolution’?’.

abiotic stress↗

Soil carbon change in intensive agriculture after 25 years of conservation management

Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (SON) are strongly affected by land management but few long-term comparative studies have surveyed changes throughout the whole soil profile. We quantified 25-year SOC and SON changes to 1 m in 10 replicate ecosystems at an Upper Midwest, USA site. We compared four annual cropping systems in maize (Zea mays)-soybean (Glycine max)-winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) rotations, each managed differently (Conventional, No-till, Reduced input, and Biologically based); in three managed perennial systems (hybrid Poplar (Populus × euramericana), Alfalfa (Medicago sativa), and Conifer (Pinus spp.); and in three successional systems (Early, Mid- and Late succession undergoing a gradual change in species composition and structure over time). Both Reduced input and Biologically based systems included winter cover crops. Neither SOC nor SON changed significantly in the Conventional or Late successional systems over 25 years. All other systems gained SOC and SON to different degrees. SOC accrual was fastest in the Early successional system (0.8 ± 0.1 Mg C ha –1 y –1 ) followed by Alfalfa and Conifer (avg. 0.7 ± 0.1 Mg C ha –1 y –1 ), Poplar, Reduced input, and Biologically based systems (avg. 0.4 ± 0.1 Mg C ha –1 y –1 ), and Mid-successional and No-till systems (0.3 and 0.2 Mg C ha –1 y –1 , respectively). Over the most recent 12 years, rates of SOC accrual slowed in all systems except Reduced input and Mid-successional. There was no evidence of SOC loss at depth in any system, including No-till. Rates of SON accrual ranged from 64.7 to 0.8 kg N ha –1 y –1 in the order Alfalfa ≥ Early successional > Reduced input and Biologically based ≥ Poplar > No-till and Conifer > Mid-successional systems. Pyrogenic C levels in the Conventional, Early, and Late successional systems were similar despite 17 years of annual burning in the Early successional system (~ 15 % of SOC to 50 cm, on average, and ~40 % of SOC from 50 to 100 cm). Results underscore the importance of cover crops, perennial crops, and no-till options for sequestering whole profile C in intensively managed croplands.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Phenotyping stomatal closure by thermal imaging for GWAS and TWAS of water use efficiency-related genes

Abstract Stomata allow CO2 uptake by leaves for photosynthetic assimilation at the cost of water vapor loss to the atmosphere. The opening and closing of stomata in response to fluctuations in light intensity regulate CO2 and water fluxes and are essential for maintaining water-use efficiency (WUE). However, a little is known about the genetic basis for natural variation in stomatal movement, especially in C4 crops. This is partly because the stomatal response to a change in light intensity is difficult to measure at the scale required for association studies. Here, we used high-throughput thermal imaging to bypass the phenotyping bottleneck and assess 10 traits describing stomatal conductance (gs) before, during and after a stepwise decrease in light intensity for a diversity panel of 659 sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) accessions. Results from thermal imaging significantly correlated with photosynthetic gas exchange measurements. gs traits varied substantially across the population and were moderately heritable (h2 up to 0.72). An integrated genome-wide and transcriptome-wide association study identified candidate genes putatively driving variation in stomatal conductance traits. Of the 239 unique candidate genes identified with the greatest confidence, 77 were putative orthologs of Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) genes related to functions implicated in WUE, including stomatal opening/closing (24 genes), stomatal/epidermal cell development (35 genes), leaf/vasculature development (12 genes), or chlorophyll metabolism/photosynthesis (8 genes). These findings demonstrate an approach to finding genotype-to-phenotype relationships for a challenging trait as well as candidate genes for further investigation of the genetic basis of WUE in a model C4 grass for bioenergy, food, and forage production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Planting miscanthus instead of row crops may increase the productivity and economic performance of farmed potholes

Abstract Climate change projections indicate that precipitation events in the central United States are expected to become more intense, more frequent in the spring, and less frequent in the summer. Such a precipitation shift could adversely impact crop yields, especially in subfield areas known as farmed potholes, which are highly susceptible to flooding and ponding, and crop death is more likely to occur, particularly early in the growing season. This suggests that planting alternative crops, such as more flood tolerant perennials, in these areas may be a more profitable option. Using observations of crop growth and yield along with ponding depth of a specific field and farmed pothole in the central United States, we developed a spatially explicit version of the agroecosystem model Agro‐IBIS to estimate water depth and crop yield. After evaluating the model, we conducted a case study for a specific farmed pothole with a range of future precipitation scenarios with Agro‐IBIS to simulate the effects of contemporary (2002–2016) and future precipitation on a conventional corn/soybean ( Zea mays L. and Glycine max Merr.) rotation and an alternative perennial miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus Greef et Deu.) cropping system. The depth and frequency of ponding increased under most future precipitation scenarios. The corn/soybean rotation had greater total loss (i.e., no yield) on average (>30%) for all scenarios in comparison to miscanthus (<10%). Under one future precipitation scenario with increased spring precipitation, both the corn/soybean rotation and miscanthus simulations showed an increase in yield. A simple budget analysis indicated that it is more profitable to plant miscanthus instead of corn or soybeans where yields in farmed potholes are consistently poor. Our findings show that potholes can be individually modeled, and their influence on yield can be quantified for use in future management decisions dictated by change in climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

What Factors Drive the Changes in Water Withdrawals in the U.S. Agriculture and Food Manufacturing Industries between 1995 and 2010?

Climate change and increasing world population will directly impact the global food supply chain linkages. In the United States, agricultural production requires less irrigated water than before but it still accounts for a third of total water withdrawals. To better understand the evolution of its water use, we perform a structural decomposition analysis of water withdrawals across eight different crops and six livestock categories and differentiate the trends over 1995–2005 vs 2005–2010 to account for the role of the economic crisis in the second period. Based on USGS data, the results show that both periods experienced an overall decline in water withdrawals in the production of all crops except oilseeds. This trend is driven by a decrease in water intensity, reflecting greater efficiency of irrigation systems, and by reduced local per capita income in the second period. However, increased foreign demand for water-intensive sectors like oilseeds from NAFTA and Asian partners mitigated the decline. Results indicate also a decreasing water use in livestock production partially due to a shift from red to white meat consumption in the country. Arguably, recent tariff wars and border closures have greatly reduced the virtual water embodied in American exports.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Community composition and abundance of wild bees at row crop-grassland interfaces in west central Nebraska

Abstract Perennial mixed forb and grassland habitats are crucial to conservation of pollinators and connectivity of habitats in intensely farmed landscapes. This study aims to understand the effects of land use on the pollinator community by describing bee abundance, species richness and community composition in perennial conservation grasslands and adjacent annual row crops located in west central Nebraska. In 2022 and 2023, we collected and identified bees via sticky traps at 4 locations (center and edge of adjacent grasslands and crop fields) at 6 replicated sites. We collected 1,768 specimens from sticky traps, resulting in 70 species within 28 genera. Halictidae accounted for 84% of the specimens collected. Bee abundance was influenced by the simple effects of land use (grassland vs. crops), edge adjacency, and the month and year of collection. Differences in bee abundance within a collection date were found mostly in early 2022 (May and June) and late 2023 (September), when the crop center location was generally the lowest, with some evidence for spillover of bees from the grassland into the crop edge during the early summer months. Bee species richness was affected only by month and was not significantly different by land use and edge adjacency. Bee community composition overlapped across the 4 locations, although there were significant dissimilarities between crop fields and grasslands. Surveys of the plant community revealed very low abundance of blooming stems and plant taxonomic richness at crop locations for all sampling periods, while grassland locations were comparatively high and varied over time. Plant communities showed no overlap between crop field and grassland locations. Overall, we found that conservation grasslands, while not seeded specifically with pollinator-attractive forbs, provide diverse resources to support wild bee communities in west central Nebraska; crop edges may also provide non-plant resources such as nesting sites and irrigation water. Going forward, better understanding pollinator species composition and resource utilization relative to land use characteristics and drought conditions will allow for better tailoring of conservation efforts and management strategies in Nebraska and across the larger region.

Entomology↗

Controlled-Environment Agriculture and the Geography of Food, Energy and Water Resilience in the United States

USDA guidelines call for an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption in U.S. households to promote healthier diets. Access to fresh fruits and vegetables are especially lacking in food deserts and food swamps (characterized by a prevalence of food that is highly processed and lacking in nutritional value). Adoption of the recommended healthy diet, which more than doubles the consumption of fruits and vegetables, would have a wide variety of health benefits and would reduce the land footprint of U.S diets. However, adopting a healthy diet would increase phosphate and nitrogen impacts associated with fertilizers and pesticides and would significantly increase freshwater consumption and energy use because of the resource intensity of field cultivation of fruits and vegetables. The majority of these crops are grown in just a few states, including California and Arizona, which are increasingly impacted by climate change. In addition, rural communities are rapidly becoming food deserts, while food produced in these areas is transported long distances to market. In recent years, highly intensified controlled environment (CE) agricultural systems, (i.e., vertical farming) have been developed to provide fresh food closer to consumers. Fruits and vegetables, many of which are amenable to CE culture, occupy a uniquely impactful segment of the food supply-chain, including their value in improving nutrition for vulnerable communities. The objective of this work is to elucidate the location dependency of the energy and water impacts of adoption of distributed CE farming for an important portion of the food system.

controlled environment agriculture↗

Why Black Flowers? An Extreme Environment and Molecular Perspective of Black Color Accumulation in the Ornamental and Food Crops

Pollinators are attracted to vibrant flower colors. That is why flower color is the key agent to allow successful fruit set in food or ornamental crops. However, black flower color is the least attractive to pollinators, although a number of plant species produce black flowers. Cyanidin-based anthocyanins are thought to be the key agents to induce black color in the ornamental and fruit crops. R2R3-MYB transcription factors (TFs) play key roles for the tissue-specific accumulation of anthocyanin. MYB1 and MYB11 are the key TFs regulating the expression of anthocyanin biosynthesis genes for black color accumulation. Post-transcriptional silencing of flavone synthase II ( FNS ) gene is the technological method to stimulate the accumulation of cyanidin-based anthocyanins in black cultivars. Type 1 promoter of DvIVS takes the advantage of FNS silencing to produce large amounts of black anthocyanins. Exogenous ethylene application triggers anthocyanin accumulation in the fruit skin at ripening. Environment cues have been the pivotal regulators to allow differential accumulation of anthocyanins to regulate black color. Heat stress is one of the most important environmental stimulus that regulates concentration gradient of anthocyanins in various plant parts, thereby affecting the color pattern of flowers. Stability of black anthocyanins in the extreme environments can save the damage, especially in fruits, caused by abiotic stress. White flowers without anthocyanin face more damages from abiotic stress than dark color flowers. The intensity and pattern of flower color accumulation determine the overall fruit set, thereby controlling crop yield and human food needs. This review paper presents comprehensive knowledge of black flower regulation as affected by high temperature stress, and the molecular regulators of anthocyanin for black color in ornamental and food crops. It also discusses the black color-pollination interaction pattern affected by heat stress for food and ornamental crops.

Ahmad, Sagheer↗

How do drought and heat affect the response of soybean seed yield to elevated O 3 ? An analysis of 15 seasons of free–air O 3 concentration enrichment studies

The coincidence of rising ozone concentrations ([O 3 ]), increasing global temperatures, and drought episodes is expected to become more intense and frequent in the future. A better understanding of the responses of crop yield to elevated [O 3 ] under different levels of drought and high temperature stress is, therefore, critical for projecting future food production potential. Using a 15-year open-air field experiment in central Illinois, we assessed the impacts of elevated [O 3 ] coupled with variation in growing season temperature and water availability on soybean seed yield. Thirteen soybean cultivars were exposed to a wide range of season-long elevated [O 3 ] in the field using free-air O 3 concentration enrichment. Elevated [O3] treatments reduced soybean seed yield from as little as 5.3% in 2005 to 35.2% in 2010. Although cultivars differed in yield response to elevated [O 3 ] (R), ranging from 17.5% to –76.4%, there was a significant negative correlation between R and O 3 dosage. Soybean cultivars showed greater seed yield losses to elevated [O 3 ] when grown at drier or hotter conditions compared to wetter or cooler years, because the hotter and drier conditions were associated with greater O 3 treatment. However, year-to-year variation in weather conditions did not influence the sensitivity of soybean seed yield to a given increase in [O 3 ]. Collectively, this study quantitatively demonstrates that, although drought conditions or warmer temperatures led to greater O 3 treatment concentrations and O 3 -induced seed yield reduction, drought and temperature stress did not alter soybean's sensitivity to O 3 . Our results have important implications for modeling the effects of rising O 3 pollution on crops and suggest that altering irrigation practices to mitigate O 3 stress may not be effective in reducing crop sensitivity to O 3 .

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Unlocking the biofuel power of cover crop in Washington State: Enhancing potential through hydrothermal liquefaction

This study evaluates cover crops in Washington State (WA) as a renewable feedstock for hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), supported by techno-economic (TEA) and life cycle (LCA) analysis. In the Pacific Northwest, fallow land is the common winter practice, generating no income for farmers. Over three years, field trials at two representative sites—Puyallup (cool, wet) and Othello (irrigated, no-till)tested triticale, hairy vetch, crimson clover, winter pea, and fava bean preceding cash crops. Biomass yields, composition, soil impacts, and net revenue were assessed across removal treatments. HTL conversion produced 32–37 wt% biocrude, lower than 48 wt% for sewage sludge, with modeled cradle-to-grave carbon intensities of 26–31 g CO 2 e/MJ and minimum fuel selling prices (MFSP) of $\$$6.75–$\$$7.18 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE), comparable to other lignocellulosic feedstocks. No significant changes were observed in soil carbon, nitrogen, or subsequent cash crop yields after cover crop removal. Farmer profitability was possible, particularly for triticale and hairy vetch at $\$$60 per dry ton. To address seasonal variability, blending with wastewater sludge was evaluated. All scenarios delivered >70 % carbon intensity reductions relative to fossil fuels, and with Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, MFSPs below $\$$2.5 GGE were achievable. These results demonstrate that cover crops can generate new revenue streams for farmers while serving as a flexible, low-carbon feedstock. Integrating cover crops with waste biomass offers a practical pathway to expand the bioeconomy and support year-round renewable fuel production.

Biofuels↗

Feedstock Choices for Advancing the Bioeconomy in the US and Policy Implications

Biomass feedstocks will be critical for scaling up the bioeconomy in the United States to meet multiple demands for biofuels, sustainable aviation fuel, bioproducts, and biochemicals. There is a wide range of choices of feedstocks, including a variety of dedicated energy crops and crop residues. There are substantial differences in the yields, costs of production, and carbon intensity of these feedstocks and for each feedstock across locations. These feedstocks also differ in the trade-offs they offer among multiple environmental impacts. We discuss the economic factors that will influence the production of these feedstocks and the implications of alternative biofuel and low-carbon policies for the mix of feedstocks that will be incentivized.

Khanna, Madhu (ORCID:0000000349944451)↗

Sensitive Measures of Soil Health Reveal Carbon Stability Across a Management Intensity and Plant Biodiversity Gradient

Soil carbon (C) is a major driver of soil health, yet little is known regarding how sensitive measures of soil C shift temporally within a single growing season in response to short-term weather perturbations. Our study aimed to i) Examine how long-term management impacts soil C cycling and stability across a management intensity and plant biodiversity gradient and ii) Assess how sensitive soil health indicators change temporally over the course of a single growing season in response to recent weather patterns. Here we quantify a variety of sensitive soil C measures at four time points across the 2021 growing season at the W.K. Kellogg Biological Station’s Long Term Ecological Research Trial (LTER) located in southwest Michigan, USA. The eight systems sampled included four annual soybean ( Glycine max ) systems that ranged in management intensity (conventional, no-till, reduced input, and biologically-based), two perennial biofuel cropping systems (switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum) and hybrid poplars ( Populus nigra x P.maximowiczii )), and two unmanaged systems (early successional system and a mown but never tilled grassland). We found that unmanaged systems with increased perenniality enhanced mineralizable C (Min C) and permanganate oxidizable C (POXC) values. Additionally, all soil health indicators were found to be sensitive to changes in short-term weather perturbations over the course of the growing season. The implications of this study are threefold. First, this study assess indicators of labile and stable C pools over the course of the growing season and reflects the stability of soil C in different systems. Second, POXC, Min C, and ß-glucosidase (GLU) activity are sensitive soil health indicators that fluctuate temporally, which means that these soil health indicators could help elucidate the impact that weather patterns have on soil C dynamics. Lastly, for effective monitoring of soil C, sampling time and frequency should be considered for a comprehensive understanding of soil C cycling within a system.

Martin, Tvisha↗

Assessing the Additional Carbon Savings with Biofuel

A recent study claims that corn used for ethanol should not be considered to be inherently biogenically carbon-neutral because not all that corn was grown additional to the level otherwise. By assessing the extent of carbon neutrality of corn for ethanol using the reference point baseline approach and historical data that study concluded that the carbon intensity of US corn ethanol is 27% higher than that of gasoline. We develop a framework to determine the carbon neutrality of corn for ethanol by assessing the additional carbon uptake by crops using an anticipated baseline approach. We also apply this framework to determine the additional corn produced for ethanol and include the direct life cycle carbon emissions of only that portion of corn in the direct life cycle carbon intensity of corn ethanol. We implement this framework by integrating an economic model of the agricultural sector in the USA with a biogenic carbon model and life cycle analysis to quantify biogenic carbon uptake and direct life cycle emissions with and without corn ethanol expansion over the 2007–2027 period. We find that the combined biogenic carbon emissions and direct life cycle carbon emission intensity of corn ethanol (not including indirect land use related emissions) is 21% lower than gasoline. In conclusion, the lower value of this carbon intensity of corn ethanol compared with gasoline is robust to a wide range of parametric assumptions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗