Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “cropping intensity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Drivers of Water Use in the Agricultural Sector of the European Union 27

Population growth and the uncertain hazards that accompany climate change have put increasing pressure on the management and sustainability of water. It has a direct impact on agriculture and its domestic and international supply chain linkages. As one of the largest agricultural producers in the world, the European Union (EU) is particularly sensitive to changes in water availability. Therefore, here we perform a structural decomposition analysis based on the recently released EXIOBASE 3 database to examine in depth how changes in water input coefficients, in final demand and in technology have affected changes in water use across crops. Crop production consumes 99% of the direct water in agriculture. Our results show that the largest EU crop producers have experienced an increase in water use that is mostly driven by changes in technology. On the other hand, several Mediterranean countries, where water scarcity has been a problem for years, have decreased their water consumption mostly thanks to an improvement in their water intensity. Results by crop are consistent with those at the aggregated level except for vegetables of which water use changes have been primarily driven by changes in final demand and water intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Soybean fallow and nitrification inhibitors: Strategies to reduce N 2 O emission intensities and N losses in Australian sugarcane cropping systems

The Australian sugar industry is facing mounting pressure to reduce the nitrogen (N) losses and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions associated with N fertiliser use. Research has shown that N 2 O emissions from sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) cropping systems can be reduced with the use of fertilisers coated with nitrification inhibitors, or by sowing legume crops in the fallows between sugarcane crop cycles. However, the efficacy of these two N management strategies across different climatic zones is still unclear, as results from field studies have been contradictory. The objectives of this study were therefore to use the DayCent model to assess the long-term effects of the two strategies (separately or in combination) on N 2 O emissions, N losses and yields. The model was parameterised using data from eight field experiments (39 treatments) conducted across four of the five main districts of the Australian sugarcane industry. A series of long-term scenarios embracing a range of N fertiliser rates (0- 160 kg N ha -1 applied as urea), climatic regions (Tropics and Subtropics), soil textures (fine- and coarse-textured soils) and N-loss risk scenarios (crop fertilised well before or close to the on-set of the wet season) were tested for both N management strategies. Simulations identified that the combined use of soybean (Glycine max L.) fallows and N fertiliser coated with the 3,4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate (DMPP) nitrification inhibitor was the most effective strategy to maintain or even increase current yields while significantly reducing N 2 O and cumulative N (mainly due to nitrate) losses. When used alone, the soybean fallow strategy on average reduced N losses over the entire crop cycle by 29 % compared with current industry best practice. However, this strategy showed a limited capacity to reduce N 2 O emissions over the entire cane crop cycle (median: -3% compared with current industry best practice), or even increased them in scenarios at high-risk of N losses in the Tropics. The use of urea coated with DMPP alone allowed current fertiliser N rates to be reduced by 30 % without any substantial yield penalty. In environments prone to high N losses, DMPP urea abated overall N losses and N 2 O emissions by 41 % and 30 %, respectively. This was the first study to use such an extensive dataset to parameterise a biogeochemical model for yields, N 2 O emissions and N losses in sugarcane cropping systems. Finally, the findings will be instrumental in guiding future research and policies designed to improve the profitability and environmental sustainability of this industry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies During Two Persistent North American Droughts: 1932-1939 and 1948-1957

We use an early twentieth century (1908-1958) atmospheric reanalysis, based on assimilation of surface and sea level pressure observations, to contrast atmospheric circulation during two periods of persistent drought in North America: 1932-1939 (the Dust Bowl) and 1948-1957. Primary forcing for both droughts is believed to come from anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs): a warm Atlantic and a cool eastern tropical Pacific. For boreal winter (October-March) in the 1950s, a stationary wave pattern originating from the tropical Pacific is present, with positive centers over the north Pacific and north Atlantic ocean basins and a negative center positioned over northwest North America and the tropical/subtropical Pacific. This wave train is largely absent for the 1930s drought; boreal winter height anomalies are organized much more zonally, with positive heights extending across northern North America. For boreal summer (April-September) during the 1930s, a strong upper level ridge is centered over the Great Plains; this feature is absent during the 1950s and appears to be linked to a weakening of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ). Subsidence anomalies are co-located over the centers of each drought: in the central Great Plains for the 1930s and in a band extending from the southwest to the southeastern United States for the 1950s. The location and intensity of this subsidence during the 1948-1957 drought is a typical response to a cold eastern tropical Pacific, but for 1932-1939 deviates in terms of the expected intensity, location, and spatial extent. Overall, circulation anomalies during the 1950s drought appear consistent with the expected response to the observed SST forcing. This is not the case for the 1930s, implying some other causal factor may be needed to explain the Dust Bowl drought anomalies. In addition to SST forcing, the 1930s were also characterized by massive alterations to the land surface, including regional-scale devegetation from crop failures and intensive wind erosion and dust storms. Incorporation of these land surface factors into a general circulation model greatly improves the simulation of precipitation and subsidence anomalies during this drought, relative to simulations with SST forcing alone. Even with additional forcing from the land surface, however, the model still has difficulty reproducing some of the other circulation anomalies, including weakening of the GPLLJ and strengthening of the upper level ridge during AMJJAS. This may be due to either weaknesses in the model or uncertainties in the boundary condition estimates. Still, analysis of the circulation anomalies supports the conclusion of an earlier paper (Cook et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:4997, 2009), demonstrating that land degradation factors are consistent with the anomalous nature of the Dust Bowl drought.

Cook, Benjamin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evapotranspiration Partitioning of Eucalyptus benthamii and Pinus taeda During Early Stand Development

Increasing demand for bioenergy from intensively managed woody crops raises concerns of increased evapotranspiration and potential decreases in water yield. Pinus taeda (loblolly pine) is currently the most cultivated species in the southeastern USA, the country’s wood basket. However, Eucalyptus species could achieve greater productivity but with unknown ramifications for water budgets. To address the knowledge gap, we determined annual water budgets of loblolly pine and Eucalyptus benthamii (eucalypt) from growing years 3 through 5 in a replicated (n = 3) two-factor design comparing species and groundwater depth. Paired plots were established across a depth-to-groundwater gradient from shallow (~ 2 m) to deep (~ 8 m). Hydrologic budgets were constructed by measuring precipitation, interception, soil evaporation, and transpiration. Eucalypt evapotranspiration and above-ground biomass production for growing years 3 through 5 were on average 25 and 14% greater than pine, respectively; however, evapotranspiration did not differ across groundwater depths. At the end of growing year 5, eucalypt had higher transpiration and evapotranspiration per unit area than pine. Soil evaporation was substantial in young plantations (nearly 500 mm) in growing year 3 but declined as the canopy closed. Partitioning of evapotranspiration components in developing bioenergy plantations was dynamic due to canopy development driven decreases in soil evaporation and increases in transpiration and interception; total evapotranspiration was less variable from year to year. Water use efficiency (WUE, kg biomass/m 3 H 2 O) per unit evapotranspiration was similar between species, but WUE per unit transpiration was higher in pine. As a result, considering total evapotranspiration in young plantations can affect WUE interpretations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A multi-product landscape life-cycle assessment approach for evaluating local climate mitigation potential

Increasing demand for land-based climate mitigation requires more efficient management of agricultural landscapes for competing objectives. Here we develop methods for assessing trade-offs and synergies between intensification and carbon-sequestering conservation measures in annual crop production landscapes using the DayCent ecosystem model and the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) life-cycle assessment (LCA) model. We compiled county-scaled crop yields, fertilizer application rates, and tillage intensity for a corn–soybean farming case study landscape in the US state of Iowa. Using DayCent, we estimated a baseline soil organic carbon (SOC) accrual rate of 0.29 Mg C ha -1 y -1 driven by historical increases in crop productivity and reductions in tillage intensity. We then simulated the effects of management interventions targeted toward intensification (stover removal) and SOC sequestration (tillage intensity reduction and winter cover crop addition) individually and in combination. We propose a new multi-product landscape–LCA approach that analyzes marginal changes in corn grain, corn stover, and soybean production from the landscape in terms of their value for biofuel production (corn ethanol, soy biodiesel, and cellulosic ethanol from stover) and associated net displacement of conventional fossil-derived fuel use. This enables us to evaluate both intensification and sequestration effects in common CO 2 -equivalent mitigation units. We also used DayCent-simulated yields under the different land management scenarios to estimate farm-level costs and revenues. Our results show that intensification via collecting 30% of corn stover for biofuel production would increase the total greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of this landscape by 0.93 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 and provide $49 ha -1 y -1 of additional net revenue from biomass sales, but would reduce the baseline SOC accumulation rate by approximately 40%. In contrast, integrated approaches that include co-adoption of winter cover cropping and/or tillage intensity reduction would result in increased rates of SOC accumulation above the baseline, achieving simultaneous improvements in both farm profits and the overall GHG mitigation potential of the landscape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-throughput detection of T-DNA insertion sites for multiple transgenes in complex genomes

Abstract Background Genetic engineering of crop plants has been successful in transferring traits into elite lines beyond what can be achieved with breeding techniques. Introduction of transgenes originating from other species has conferred resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses, increased efficiency, and modified developmental programs. The next challenge is now to combine multiple transgenes into elite varieties via gene stacking to combine traits. Generating stable homozygous lines with multiple transgenes requires selection of segregating generations which is time consuming and labor intensive, especially if the crop is polyploid. Insertion site effects and transgene copy number are important metrics for commercialization and trait efficiency. Results We have developed a simple method to identify the sites of transgene insertions using T-DNA-specific primers and high-throughput sequencing that enables identification of multiple insertion sites in the T 1 generation of any crop transformed via Agrobacterium . We present an example using the allohexaploid oil-seed plant Camelina sativa to determine insertion site location of two transgenes. Conclusion This new methodology enables the early selection of desirable transgene location and copy number to generate homozygous lines within two generations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The effect of increasing temperature on crop photosynthesis: from enzymes to ecosystems

Abstract As global land surface temperature continues to rise and heatwave events increase in frequency, duration, and/or intensity, our key food and fuel cropping systems will likely face increased heat-related stress. A large volume of literature exists on exploring measured and modelled impacts of rising temperature on crop photosynthesis, from enzymatic responses within the leaf up to larger ecosystem-scale responses that reflect seasonal and interannual crop responses to heat. This review discusses (i) how crop photosynthesis changes with temperature at the enzymatic scale within the leaf; (ii) how stomata and plant transport systems are affected by temperature; (iii) what features make a plant susceptible or tolerant to elevated temperature and heat stress; and (iv) how these temperature and heat effects compound at the ecosystem scale to affect crop yields. Throughout the review, we identify current advancements and future research trajectories that are needed to make our cropping systems more resilient to rising temperature and heat stress, which are both projected to occur due to current global fossil fuel emissions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Use of a Chlorophyll Meter (SPAD-502) for Field Determinations of Red Mangrove (Rhizophora Mangle L.) Leaf Chlorophyll Amount

The red mangrove Rhizophora mangle L., is a halophytic woody spermatophyte common to the land-sea interface of tropical and subtropical intertidal zones. It has been reported that 60 to 75% of the coastline of the earth's tropical regions are lined with mangroves. Mangroves help prevent shoreline erosion, provide breeding, nesting and feeding areas for many marine animals and birds. Mangroves are important contributors of primary production in the coastal environment, and this is largely proportional to the standing crop of leaf chlorophylls. Higher intensities of ultraviolet radiation, resulting from stratospheric ozone depletion, can lead to a reduction of chlorophyll in terrestrial plants. Since the most common method for determining chlorophyll concentration is by extraction and this is labor intensive and time consuming, few studies on photosynthetic pigments of mangroves have been reported. Chlorophyll meter readings have been related to leaf chlorophyll content in apples and maples. It has also been correlated to nitrogen status in corn and cotton. Peterson et al., (1993) used a chlorophyll meter to detect nitrogen deficiency in crops and in determining the need for additional nitrogen fertilizer. Efforts to correlate chlorophyll meter measurements to chlorophyll content of mangroves have not been reported. This paper describes the use of a hand-held chlorophyll meter (Minolta SPAD-502) to determine the amount of red mangrove foliar chlorophyll present in the field.

Connelly, Xana M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cross-scale sensing of field-level crop residue cover: Integrating field photos, airborne hyperspectral imaging, and satellite data

Conservation tillage practices can bring benefits to agricultural sustainability. Accurate spatial and temporal resolved information of field-scale crop residue cover, which reflects tillage intensity, is highly valuable for evaluating the outcomes of government conservation programs and voluntary ecosystem service markets, as well as facilitating agroecosystem modeling to quantify cropland biogeochemical processes. Remote sensing has the potential to cost-effectively detect crop residue cover, however, existing regional-scale studies were limited by insufficient ground truth data, scale mismatch between coarse satellite pixels and ground data, and the lack of key spectral data for detecting crop residues. Therefore, this study developed an innovative cross-sensing framework to integrate proximal sensing, airborne hyperspectral imaging, and satellite Earth Observation through deep learning to quantify field-level crop residue cover fractions at the regional scale. Specifically, we have collected intensive ground orthographic photos and conducted airborne hyperspectral surveys at corn and soybean fields of Champaign and nearby counties in Illinois, the heartland of the U.S. Corn Belt. Through semi-automatic labeling aided by ResNet-50 and superpixel image segmentation, we obtained 6719 records of ground residue fractions. With these ground data, we developed the 1-dimensional convolution neural network (CNN) model using airborne hyperspectral reflectance, which has 0.5m spatial resolution and 3–5 nm spectral resolution from 400 to 2400 nm, to predict residue fractions. By applying the CNN model to airborne pixels, we augmented “ground truth” data of crop residues and further combined them with Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) satellite data to quantify regional residue fractions at 30 m resolution. Results show that airborne hyperspectral imagery with CNN can accurately detect residue fractions (R 2 = 0.82, relative RMSE = 11.73%) to effectively generate quasi “ground truth” data to support satellite upscaling to all fields. With independent ground data for testing, we found that the ground-airborne-satellite integrative framework achieved better predictions in estimating crop residue cover (R 2 = 0.67, relative RMSE = 17.53%) than the conventional ground-satellite upscaling (R 2 = 0.22, relative RMSE = 32.09%). Here we also found that the shortwave infrared wavelengths, particularly 2100–2300 nm, are vital for predicting crop residue cover. Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 data have a comparable capability to track residue fractions due to similar shortwave infrared wavelengths. This study highlights the high accuracy of hyperspectral imaging to detect agroecosystem tillage management practices and the advantages of cross-scale sensing to cost-effectively integrate multi-source data to quantify field-level agroecosystem variables across scales.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Varied farm-level carbon intensities of corn feedstock help reduce corn ethanol greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract A reduction in the overall carbon intensity (CI) of a crop-based biofuel can be achieved by cutting down the CI of the biofuel’s feedstock, which in turn correlates significantly to agricultural management practices. Proposals are being made to incentivize low-carbon biofuel feedstocks under U.S. fuel regulatory programs to promote sustainable farming practices by individual farms. For such an incentive scheme to function properly, robust data collection and verification are needed at the farm level. This study presents our collaboration with U.S. private sector companies to collect and verify the corn production data necessary for feedstock-specific CI calculation at the farm level, through a carefully designed questionnaire, to demonstrate the practicality and feasibility of data collection at scale. We surveyed 71 farms that produced 0.2 million metric tons of corn grain in 2018 in a Midwestern U.S. state to obtain information on key parameters affecting corn ethanol feedstock CI, such as grain yields, fertilizer/chemical application rates, and agronomic practices. Feedstock-specific CI was calculated in the unit of grams (g) CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 e) of greenhouse gases per kilogram (kg) of corn produced. Results showed large CI variations—from 119 to 407 g CO 2 e kg −1 of corn—due to the farm-level inventory, while the production-weighted average CI for all surveyed farms was 210 g CO 2 e kg −1 , comparable to the national average CI of 204 g CO 2 e kg −1 . The nitrogen fertilizer type applied and rate were identified as key factors contributing most to CI variations at the farm level. The estimated N 2 O emissions from fertilizer and biomass nitrogen inputs to soil accounted for 51% of the overall farm-level CI and therefore need to be better monitored at farm level with high resolution. We concluded that this feedstock-specific, farm-level CI evaluation has the potential to be used to incentivize low-carbon feedstock for biofuel production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A functional trait framework for integrating nitrogen‐fixing cover crops into short‐rotation woody crop systems

Abstract Developing approaches to simultaneously maximize short‐rotation woody crop (SRWC) productivity while minimizing footprints associated with intensive management is imperative to profitable and sustainable bioenergy production systems. Intercropping nitrogen (N)‐fixing cover crops in SRWC systems is an overlooked approach to sustainably intensify SRWC production by increasing N availability using less environmentally costly inputs. Here, we discuss how functional traits (e.g., seasonal activity, lifespan, leaf habit, soil exploration) of cover crops and SRWCs may interact through space and time influencing access to light, water, and nutrients to provide a framework for successful integration of cover crops into SRWCs. Next, we summarize the literature on intercropping forest plantations with N‐fixing cover crops to identity research gaps and outline future research needs and opportunities. And then, using empirical N demand and productivity data from SRWCs and cover crop N inputs from the literature, we illustrate how SRWC leaf habit (conifer evergreens and deciduous hardwoods) would influence successful integration of cover crops and potential N fixation. We estimate that integrating cover crops into SRWCs could supply 27% and 72% of the N demand across a 10‐year rotation for an evergreen and a deciduous hardwood, respectively. These figures suggest these integrated SRWC systems may approach a virtual minimal external N input when other biogeochemical cycles are considered. The guiding principles presented here are grounded in ecological theory and provide a framework for sustainable intensification of forest production.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global warming intensity of biofuel derived from switchgrass grown on marginal land in Michigan

Energy crops for biofuel production, especially switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), are of interest from a climate change perspective. Here, we use outputs from a crop growth model and life cycle assessment (LCA) to examine the global warming intensity (GWI; g CO 2 MJ –1 ) and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential (Mg CO 2 year –1 ) of biofuel systems based on a spatially explicit analysis of switchgrass grown on marginal land (abandoned former cropland) in Michigan, USA. We find that marginal lands in Michigan can annually produce over 0.57 hm 3 of liquid biofuel derived from nitrogen-fertilized switchgrass, mitigating 1.2–1.5 Tg of CO 2 year –1 . About 96% of these biofuels can meet the Renewable Fuel Standard (60% reduction in lifecycle GHG emissions compared with conventional gasoline; GWI ≤37.2 g CO 2 MJ –1 ). Furthermore, 73%–75% of these biofuels are carbon-negative (GWI less than zero) due to enhanced soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, simulations indicate that SOC levels would fail to increase and even decrease on the 11% of lands where SOC stocks >>200 Mg C ha –1 , leading to carbon intensities greater than gasoline. Results highlight the strong climate mitigation potential of switchgrass grown on marginal lands as well as the needs to avoid carbon rich soils such as histosols and wetlands and to ensure that productivity will be sufficient to provide net mitigation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Albedo of crops as a nature-based climate solution to global warming

Abstract Surface albedo can affect the energy budget and subsequently cause localized warming or cooling of the climate. When we convert a substantial portion of lands to agriculture, land surface properties are consequently altered, including albedo. Through crop selection and management, one can increase crop albedo to obtain higher levels of localized cooling effects to mitigate global warming. Still, there is little understanding about how distinctive features of a cropping system may be responsible for elevated albedo and consequently for the cooling potential of cultivated lands. To address this pressing issue, we conducted seasonal measurements of surface reflectivity during five growing seasons on annual crops of corn-soybean–winter wheat ( Zea mays L.- Glycine max L. Merrill - Triticum aestivum L. ; CSW) rotations at three agronomic intensities, a monoculture of perennial switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L. ), and perennial polycultures of early successional and restored prairie grasslands. 
We found that crop-species, agronomic intensity, seasonality, and plant phenology had significant effects on albedo. The mean±SD albedo was highest in perennial crops of switchgrass (0.179±0.04), intermediate in early successional crops (0.170±0.04), and lowest in a reduced input corn systems with cover crops (0.154±0.02). The strongest cooling potentials were found in soybean (-0.450 kg CO 2 e m -2 yr -1 ) and switchgrass (-0.367 kg CO 2 e m -2 yr -1 ), with up to -0.265 kg CO 2 e m -2 yr -1 of localized climate cooling annually provided by different agroecosystems. We also demonstrated how diverse ecosystems, leaf canopy, and agronomic practices can affect surface reflectivity and provide another potential nature-based solution for reducing global warming at localized scales.

Lei, Cheyenne (ORCID:0000000272746309)↗
NASA NTRS2016

Detection of Chlorophyll and Leaf Area Index Dynamics from Sub-weekly Hyperspectral Imagery

Temporally rich hyperspectral time-series can provide unique time critical information on within-field variations in vegetation health and distribution needed by farmers to effectively optimize crop production. In this study, a dense time series of images were acquired from the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) Hyperion sensor over an intensive farming area in the center of Saudi Arabia. After correction for atmospheric effects, optimal links between carefully selected explanatory hyperspectral vegetation indices and target vegetation characteristics were established using a machine learning approach. A dataset of in-situ measured leaf chlorophyll (Chll) and leaf area index (LAI), collected during five intensive field campaigns over a variety of crop types, were used to train the rule-based predictive models. The ability of the narrow-band hyperspectral reflectance information to robustly assess and discriminate dynamics in foliar biochemistry and biomass through empirical relationships were investigated. This also involved evaluations of the generalization and reproducibility of the predictions beyond the conditions of the training dataset. The very high temporal resolution of the satellite retrievals constituted a specifically intriguing feature that facilitated detection of total canopy Chl and LAI dynamics down to sub-weekly intervals. The study advocates the benefits associated with the availability of optimum spectral and temporal resolution spaceborne observations for agricultural management purposes.

Houborg, Rasmus↗
DOE OSTI2025

Agriculture’s Potential Regional Economic Contributions to the United States Economy When Supplying Feedstock to the Bio-Economy

The economic impact of obtaining biomass could become significant to U.S. rural economies via the establishment of a bioeconomy. In 2023, the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory provided a road map to obtain over a billion tons of biomass for conversion to bioenergy and other products. Using information from this roadmap, this study estimates the potential positive and negative economic impacts that occur because of land use change, along with increased technological advances. This is achieved by using the input–output model, IMPLAN, and impacting 179 Bureau of Economic Analysis regions in the conterminous United States. Biomass included in the analysis comprises dedicated energy crops, crop residues, and forest residues. The analysis found that managing pastures more intensively could result in releasing land to produce dedicated energy crops on 30.8 million hectares, resulting in the production of 361 million metric tons of biomass. This, coupled with crop residues from barley, corn, oats, sorghum, and wheat (162 million metric tons), plus forest residues (41 million metric tons), provide 564 million dry metric tons of biomass. Assuming the price for biomass in 2023 dollars was USD 77 per dry metric-ton, this additional production results in an economic benefit for the nation of USD 619 billion, an increase from the Business As Is scenario (Baseline) of almost USD 100 billion per year, assuming a mature biomass industry. An additional 700,000 jobs are required to grow, harvest/collect, and transport the biomass material from the land.

ForSEAM↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Crop Yield Change Emulator for Use in GCAM and Similar Models: Persephone v1.0

Future changes in Earth system state will impact agricultural yields and, through these changed yields, can have profound impacts on the global economy. Global gridded crop models estimate the influence of these Earth system changes on future crop yields but are often too computationally intensive to dynamically couple into global multisector economic models, such as the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and other similar-in-scale models. Yet, generalizing a faster site-specific crop model’s results to be used globally will introduce inaccuracies, and the question of which model to use is unclear given the wide variation in yield response across crop models. To examine the feedback loop among socioeconomics, Earth system changes, and crop yield changes, rapidly generated yield responses with some quantification of crop response uncertainty are desirable. The Persephone v1.0 response functions presented in this work are based on the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) sensitivity test data set and are focused on providing GCAM and similar models with a tractable number of rapid to evaluate dynamic yield response functions corresponding to a range of the yield response sensitivities seen in the C3MP data set. With the Persephone response functions, a new variety of agricultural impact experiments will be open to GCAM and other economic models: for example, examining the economic impacts of a multi-year drought in a key agricultural region and how economic changes in response to the drought can, in turn, impact the drought.

Snyder, Abigail↗