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NASA NTRS2014

The AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP): Methods and Protocols

Climate change is expected to alter a multitude of factors important to agricultural systems, including pests, diseases, weeds, extreme climate events, water resources, soil degradation, and socio-economic pressures. Changes to carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water (CTW) will be the primary drivers of change in crop growth and agricultural systems. Therefore, establishing the CTW-change sensitivity of crop yields is an urgent research need and warrants diverse methods of investigation. Crop models provide a biophysical, process-based tool to investigate crop responses across varying environmental conditions and farm management techniques, and have been applied in climate impact assessment by using a variety of methods (White et al., 2011, and references therein). However, there is a significant amount of divergence between various crop models' responses to CTW changes (Rotter et al., 2011). While the application of a site-based crop model is relatively simple, the coordination of such agricultural impact assessments on larger scales requires consistent and timely contributions from a large number of crop modelers, each time a new global climate model (GCM) scenario or downscaling technique is created. A coordinated, global effort to rapidly examine CTW sensitivity across multiple crops, crop models, and sites is needed to aid model development and enhance the assessment of climate impacts (Deser et al., 2012). To fulfill this need, the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) (Ruane et al., 2014) was initiated within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013). The submitted results from C3MP Phase 1 (February 15, 2013-December 31, 2013) are currently being analyzed. This chapter serves to present and update the C3MP protocols, discuss the initial participation and general findings, comment on needed adjustments, and describe continued and future development. AgMIP aims to improve substantially the climate, crop, and economic simulation tools that are used to characterize the agricultural sector, to assess future world food security under changing climate conditions, and to enhance adaptation capacity both globally and regionally. To understand better and improve the modeled crop responses, AgMIP has conducted detailed crop model intercomparisons at closely observed field sites for wheat (Asseng et al., 2013), rice (Li et al., in review), maize (Bassu et al., 2014), and sugarcane (Singels et al., 2013). A coordinated modeling exercise was one of the original motivations for AgMIP, and C3MP provides rapid estimation of crop responses to CO2, water, and temperature (CTW) changes, adding dimension and insight into the crop model intercomparisons, while facilitating interactions within the global community of modelers. C3MP also contributes a fast-track, multi-model climate sensitivity assessment for the AgMIP climate and crop modeling teams on Research Track 2 (Fig. 1), which seeks to understand the impact of projected climatic changes on crop production and food security (Rosenzweig et al., 2013; Ruane et al., 2014).

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2022

Improved representation of agricultural land use and crop management for large-scale hydrological impact simulation in Africa using SWAT+

To date, most regional and global hydrological models either ignore the representation of cropland or consider crop cultivation in a simplistic way or in abstract terms without any management practices. Yet, the water balance of cultivated areas is strongly influenced by applied management practices (e.g. planting, irrigation, fertilization, and harvesting). The SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model represents agricultural land by default in a generic way, where the start of the cropping season is driven by accumulated heat units. However, this approach does not work for tropical and subtropical regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where crop growth dynamics are mainly controlled by rainfall rather than temperature. In this study, we present an approach on how to incorporate crop phenology using decision tables and global datasets of rainfed and irrigated croplands with the associated cropping calendar and fertilizer applications in a regional SWAT+ model for northeastern Africa. We evaluate the influence of the crop phenology representation on simulations of leaf area index (LAI) and evapotranspiration (ET) using LAI remote sensing data from Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) and WaPOR (Water Productivity through Open access of Remotely sensed derived data) ET data, respectively. Results show that a representation of crop phenology using global datasets leads to improved temporal patterns of LAI and ET simulations, especially for regions with a single cropping cycle. However, for regions with multiple cropping seasons, global phenology datasets need to be complemented with local data or remote sensing data to capture additional cropping seasons. In addition, the improvement of the cropping season also helps to improve soil erosion estimates, as the timing of crop cover controls erosion rates in the model. With more realistic growing seasons, soil erosion is largely reduced for most agricultural hydrologic response units (HRUs), which can be considered as a move towards substantial improvements over previous estimates. We conclude that regional and global hydrological models can benefit from improved representations of crop phenology and the associated management practices. Future work regarding the incorporation of multiple cropping seasons in global phenology data is needed to better represent cropping cycles in areas where they occur using regional to global hydrological models.

crop phenology↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Selection Factors for Space Crops

NASA is actively researching space crop production to determine its potential to contribute to food system security on long duration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. Our near-term focus is on nutrient and variety supplementation of prepackaged food with fresh produce that requires little or no processing. The longer-term goal is caloric replacement to become less dependent on Earth, and this will require cultivation of staple crops, processing and cooking equipment, integration with spacecraft air, water, and power systems, and automation. There are numerous technology and knowledge gaps remaining for sustainable space crop production systems, but one high-impact area is in the development of crops specifically customized to meet the needs of controlled environment crop production, astronaut health and well-being, and space-unique environments. Modern crop breeding and genome engineering tools are allowing for rapid development of new genotypes with incredible specificity. Targeted aspects to optimize crops for space have been identified and characterized into five categories: plant growth and development, plant physiology, produce nutrition, produce organoleptic acceptability, and postharvest characteristics. Within each category there are several targets that further the development of crop production systems for spaceflight, such as crop size and harvest index, tolerance to specific environmental stresses, optimizing target nutrients that are low or degrade in the packaged diet, maintenance time requirements, and less indigestible structural material. NASA-funded PIs are already beginning to develop candidate crops, and spaceflight testing and validation of novel space crops is on the horizon. Crops developed for space also have the potential to benefit terrestrial controlled environment agriculture crop production systems. This research was supported by NASA’s Space Biology and Human Research Programs.

Space Crop Production↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Selection Factors for Space Crops

NASA is actively researching space crop production to determine its potential to contribute to food system security on long duration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. Our near-term focus is on nutrient and variety supplementation of prepackaged food with fresh produce that requires little or no processing. The longer-term goal is caloric replacement to become less dependent on Earth, and this will require cultivation of staple crops, processing and cooking equipment, integration with spacecraft air, water, and power systems, and automation. There are numerous technology and knowledge gaps remaining for sustainable space crop production systems, but one high-impact area is in the development of crops specifically customized to meet the needs of controlled environment crop production, astronaut health and well-being, and space-unique environments. Modern crop breeding and genome engineering tools are allowing for rapid development of new genotypes with incredible specificity. Targeted aspects to optimize crops for space have been identified and characterized into five categories: plant growth and development, plant physiology, produce nutrition, produce organoleptic acceptability, and postharvest characteristics. Within each category there are several targets that further the development of crop production systems for spaceflight, such as crop size and harvest index, tolerance to specific environmental stresses, optimizing target nutrients that are low or degrade in the packaged diet, maintenance time requirements, and less indigestible structural material. NASA-funded PIs are already beginning to develop candidate crops, and spaceflight testing and validation of novel space crops is on the horizon. Crops developed for space also have the potential to benefit terrestrial controlled environment agriculture crop production systems. This research was supported by NASA’s Space Biology and Human Research Programs.

Space Crop Production↗
NASA NTRS2017

Global Gridded Crop Model Evaluation: Benchmarking, Skills, Deficiencies and Implications.

Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation results are compared to reference data at global, national and grid cell scales and we evaluate model performance with respect to time series correlation, spatial correlation and mean bias. We find that global gridded crop models (GGCMs) show mixed skill in reproducing time series correlations or spatial patterns at the different spatial scales. Generally, maize, wheat and soybean simulations of many GGCMs are capable of reproducing larger parts of observed temporal variability (time series correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.888 for maize, 0.673 for wheat and 0.643 for soybean at the global scale) but rice yield variability cannot be well reproduced by most models. Yield variability can be well reproduced for most major producing countries by many GGCMs and for all countries by at least some. A comparison with gridded yield data and a statistical analysis of the effects of weather variability on yield variability shows that the ensemble of GGCMs can explain more of the yield variability than an ensemble of regression models for maize and soybean, but not for wheat and rice. We identify future research needs in global gridded crop modeling and for all individual crop modeling groups. In the absence of a purely observation-based benchmark for model evaluation, we propose that the best performing crop model per crop and region establishes the benchmark for all others, and modelers are encouraged to investigate how crop model performance can be increased. We make our evaluation system accessible to all crop modelers so that other modeling groups can also test their model performance against the reference data and the GGCMI benchmark.

wheat↗
NASA NTRS1993

The dynamics of hydroponic crops for simulation studies of the CELSS initial reference configurations

During the past several years, the NASA Program in Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) has continued apace with crop research and logistic, technological, and scientific strides. These include the CELSS Test Facility planned for the space station and its prototype Engineering Development Unit, soon to be active at Ames Research Center (as well as the advanced crop growth research chamber at Ames); the large environmental growth chambers and the planned human test bed facility at Johnson Space Center; the NSCORT at Purdue with new candidate crops and diverse research into the CELSS components; the gas exchange data for soy, potatoes, and wheat from Kennedy Space Center (KSC); and the high-precision gas exchange data for wheat from Utah State University (USU). All these developments, taken together, speak to the need for crop modeling as a means to connect the findings of the crop physiologists with the engineers designing the system. A need also exists for crop modeling to analyze and predict the gas exchange data from the various locations to maximize the scientific yield from the experiments. One fruitful approach employs what has been called the 'energy cascade'. Useful as a basis for CELSS crop growth experimental design, the energy cascade as a generic modeling approach for CELSS crops is a featured accomplishment in this report. The energy cascade is a major tool for linking CELSS crop experiments to the system design. The energy cascade presented here can help collaborations between modelers and crop experimenters to develop the most fruitful experiments for pushing the limits of crop productivity. Furthermore, crop models using the energy cascade provide a natural means to compare, feature for feature, the crop growth components between different CELSS experiments, for example, at Utah State University and Kennedy Space Center.

Volk, Tyler↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Statistical Emulators of GGCMI Phase 2: Responses of Year-to-Year Variation of Crop Yield to CO 2 , Temperature, Water and Nitrogen Perturbations

Understanding the impact of climate change on year-to-year variation of crop yield is critical to global food stability and security. While crop model emulators are believed to be lightweight tools to replace the models, few emulators have been developed to capture such interannual variation of crop yield in response to climate variability. In this study, we developed a statistical emulator with a machine learning algorithm to reproduce the response of year-to-year variation of four crop yields to CO 2 (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N) perturbations defined in the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) phase 2. The emulators were able to explain more than 52 % of the variance of simulated yield and performed well in capturing the year-to-year variation of global average and gridded crop yield over current croplands in the baseline. With the changes in CO 2 –temperature–water–nitrogen (CTWN) perturbations, the emulators could reproduce the year-to-year variation of crop yield well over most current cropland. The variation of R and the mean absolute error was small under the single CTWN perturbations and dual-factor perturbations. These emulators thus provide statistical response surfaces of yield, including both its mean and interannual variability, to climate factors. They could facilitate spatiotemporal downscaling of crop model simulation, projecting the changes in crop yield variability in the future and serving as a lightweight tool for multi-model ensemble simulation. The emulators enhanced the flexibility of crop yield estimates and expanded the application of large-ensemble simulations of crop yield under climate change.

Climate change↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantifying Food Security and Mitigation Risks Consequential to Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigation measures aimed at limiting global warming. This study uses the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment integrated assessment model framework to analyze different indicators related to food security and climate change mitigation under varying climate change impacts on crop yields. Twelve spatially explicit crop productivity projections were taken from the full archive of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison of 120 climate-crop model combinations, forced by CMIP6-based climate scenarios. The selection includes two average-performing climate-crop model combinations, two pessimistic combinations that perform one standard deviation below the mean, and two optimistic model combinations that perform one standard deviation above the mean. To single out the effect of climate change on productivity changes, we drew samples from two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These productivity projections were applied within an otherwise uniform scenario (SSP2) and analyzed for their effect on total calorie demand, crop prices, and number of people at risk of undernourishment to quantify food security. Risks to climate change mitigation targets were explored by modeling the total bioenergy supply, emissions, and global mean temperature. The results revealed significant differences in the risk of food security and mitigation potential between different regions and climate change scenarios. Across scenarios, the crop area extent can vary up to 2 million km2 due to changing crop yields. The projected change in global hunger ranges from 60 to 160 million undernourished people, indicating uncertainty between climate and crop model combinations. Low-income regions are especially impacted because of their high sensitivity to changes in food prices. Global climate change mitigation ambitions can also deviate by the latter part of the 21st century, as changes in yields will impact biofuel production as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use emissions. The quantitative insights generated by this study highlight the need for global policy efforts to make the agricultural system more adaptive to climate change to handle potential negative impacts.

crop yields↗
NASA NTRS2017

Early Season Large-Area Winter Crop Mapping Using MODIS NDVI Data, Growing Degree Days Information and a Gaussian Mixture Model

Knowledge on geographical location and distribution of crops at global, national and regional scales is an extremely valuable source of information applications. Traditional approaches to crop mapping using remote sensing data rely heavily on reference or ground truth data in order to train/calibrate classification models. As a rule, such models are only applicable to a single vegetation season and should be recalibrated to be applicable for other seasons. This paper addresses the problem of early season large-area winter crop mapping using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series and growing degree days (GDD) information derived from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) product. The model is based on the assumption that winter crops have developed biomass during early spring while other crops (spring and summer) have no biomass. As winter crop development is temporally and spatially non-uniform due to the presence of different agro-climatic zones, we use GDD to account for such discrepancies. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is applied to discriminate winter crops from other crops (spring and summer). The proposed method has the following advantages: low input data requirements, robustness, applicability to global scale application and can provide winter crop maps 1.5-2 months before harvest. The model is applied to two study regions, the State of Kansas in the US and Ukraine, and for multiple seasons (2001-2014). Validation using the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Data Layer (CDL) for Kansas and ground measurements for Ukraine shows that accuracies of greater than 90% can be achieved in mapping winter crops 1.5-2 months before harvest. Results also show good correspondence to official statistics with average coefficients of determination R(exp. 2) greater than 0.85.

mixture model↗
NASA NTRS2021

Hybrid phenology matching model for robust crop phenological retrieval

Crop phenology regulates seasonal agroecosystem carbon, water, and energy exchanges, and is a key component in empirical and process-based crop models for simulating biogeochemical cycles of farmlands, assessing gross and net primary production, and forecasting the crop yield. The advances in phenology matching models provide a feasible means to monitor crop phenological progress using remote sensing observations, with a priori information of reference shapes and reference phenological transition dates. Yet the underlying geometrical scaling assumption of models, together with the challenge in defining phenological references, hinders the applicability of phenology matching in crop phenological studies. The objective of this study is to develop a novel hybrid phenology matching model to robustly retrieve a diverse spectrum of crop phenological stages using satellite time series. The devised hybrid model leverages the complementary strengths of phenometric extraction methods and phenology matching models. It relaxes the geometrical scaling assumption and can characterize key phenological stages of crop cycles, ranging from farming practice-relevant stages (e.g., planted and harvested) to crop development stages (e.g., emerged and mature). To systematically evaluate the influence of phenological references on phenology matching, four representative phenological reference scenarios under varying levels of phenological calibrations in terms of time and space are further designed with publicly accessible phenological information. The results indicate that the hybrid phenology matching model can achieve high accuracies for estimating corn and soybean phenological growth stages in Illinois, particularly with the year- and region-adjusted phenological reference (R-squared higher than 0.9 and RMSE less than 5 days for most phenological stages). The inter-annual and regional phenological patterns characterized by the hybrid model correspond well with those in the crop progress reports (CPRs) from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Compared to the benchmark phenology matching model, the hybrid model is more robust to the decreasing levels of phenological reference calibrations, and is particularly advantageous in retrieving crop early phenological stages (e.g., planted and emerged stages) when the phenological reference information is limited. This innovative hybrid phenology matching model, together with CPR-enabled phenological reference calibrations, holds 3 considerable promise in revealing spatio-temporal patterns of crop phenology over extended geographical regions.

Phenology↗