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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A Study of the Covariance Data in ENDF/B VIII.0 for Low Z Isotopes

Thirty group covariance data have been produced from ENDF/B VIII.0 MF 33 for H1, H2, He4, Li6, Li7, Be9, B10, B11, C12, C13, N15, O16, the JENDL O16 and F19. Multi-group cross section covariance data was produced by NJOY routine ERRORR. Negative eigenvalues were found only for F19, but the covariance constraints required for the condition of the sum of partial cross sections being equal to the resultant total cross section were found to be incorrect for H2, Li6, B10, C12, C13, and O16. An easy correction is suggested for Li6 and C13. In closing, an expansion of the ENDF-6 formats manual is suggested for the MF 33 chapter and a new proposed covariance normalization scheme is proposed.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of nuclear data covariance libraries on uncertainty quantification of sodium cooled fast reactor simulation

Uncertainty quantification in core modelling to assess reactor performance is a regular practice to identify design safety limits. Best-estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) methods are commonly used to propagate uncertainties to core responses from input parameters, characterized by variance-covariance libraries. This study evaluates the impact of different covariance libraries on the uncertainty associated with core safety parameters and their propagation through reactor transient modelling for a metallic core (ABR-1000). The COMAC-1.0, COMMARA-2.0, and COMMARA-2.1 covariance libraries are used to propagate nuclear data uncertainties to neutron feedback coefficients using the Generalized Perturbation Theory, then through transient safety analyses to establish the confidence interval for safety performance of the reactor using stochastic sampling. The considered transients include Unprotected Transient Over Power and Unprotected Loss Of Flow. Most influential nuclide and reaction pairs in different variance-covariance libraries are identified and their impact on the uncertainty of safety parameters are evaluated. Significant differences were observed between uncertainties from COMAC compared to COMMARA libraries. Uncertainties from COMMARA libraries were consistently larger than COMAC for all cases. For structure, coolant density feedback coefficients and control rod worth, total nuclear data uncertainties were approximately 50% larger for COMMARA than COMAC. Differences were also observed in identification of top contributors of uncertainty in terms of reaction-cross sections. For instance, largest contribution to total uncertainty of radial expansion coefficient from COMMARA-2.0 and 2.1 originates from Na{sup 23} P1 Elastic cross section (0.81%) but from Pu{sup 239} Fission (0.53%) with COM C-1.0. Such differences are evaluated in this research for all quantities of interest. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hilbert series for covariants and their applications to minimal flavor violation

We elaborate how to apply the Hilbert series method to enumerating group covariants, which transform under any given representation, including but going beyond group invariants. Mathematically, group covariants form a module over the ring of the invariants. The number of independent covariants is given by the rank of the module, which can be computed by taking a ratio of two Hilbert series. In many cases, the rank equals the dimension of the group covariant representation. When this happens, we say that there is a rank saturation. We apply this technology to revisit the hypothesis of Minimal Flavor Violation in constructing Effective Field Theories beyond the Standard Model. We find that rank saturation is guaranteed in this case, leading to the important consequence that the MFV symmetry principle does not impose any restriction on the EFT, i.e. MFV SMEFT = SMEFT, in the absence of additional assumptions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Covariant color-kinematics duality

We show that color-kinematics duality is a manifest property of the equations of motion governing currents and field strengths. For the nonlinear sigma model (NLSM), this insight enables an implementation of the double copy at the level of fields, as well as an explicit construction of the kinematic algebra and associated kinematic current. As a byproduct, we also derive new formulations of the special Galileon (SG) and Born-Infeld (BI) theory. For Yang-Mills (YM) theory, this same approach reveals a novel structure — covariant color-kinematics duality — whose only difference from the conventional duality is that 1/$\square$ is replaced with covariant 1/D 2 . Remarkably, this structure implies that YM theory is itself the covariant double copy of gauged biadjoint scalar (GBAS) theory and an F 3 theory of field strengths encoding a corresponding kinematic algebra and current. Directly applying the double copy to equations of motion, we derive general relativity (GR) from the product of Einstein-YM and F 3 theory. This exercise reveals a trivial variant of the classical double copy that recasts any solution of GR as a solution of YM theory in a curved background. Covariant color-kinematics duality also implies a new decomposition of tree-level amplitudes in YM theory into those of GBAS theory. Using this representation we derive a closed-form, analytic expression for all BCJ numerators in YM theory and the NLSM for any number of particles in any spacetime dimension. By virtue of the double copy, this constitutes an explicit formula for all tree-level scattering amplitudes in YM, GR, NLSM, SG, and BI.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Applying a Template of Expected Uncertainties to Updating 239 Pu(n,f) Cross-section Covariances in the Neutron Data Standards Database

Templates of uncertainties expected in specific measurement types were recently developed. One aim of these templates is to help evaluators in identifying (1) missing or suspiciously low uncertainties and (2) missing correlations between uncertainties of the same and different experiments, when estimating covariances for experimental data employed in their evaluations. These templates also provide realistic estimates of standard deviations and correlations for a particular uncertainty source and measurement type that can be used by evaluators in situations where they are not supplied by the experimenters. This information allows for a more comprehensive uncertainty analysis across all measurements considered in an evaluation and, thus, more realistic evaluated covariances. Here, in this work, we extend a template that is applicable to uncertainties expected in neutron-induced fission, (n,f), cross-section measurements. It is applied to improving covariances of 239 Pu(n,f) cross-section measurements in the database underlying the Neutron Data Standards evaluations. This particular example was chosen since this evaluation is primarily based on experimental information. Also, some uncertainties of individual 239 Pu(n,f) cross-section experiments in this database were suspected to be underestimated. The evaluated uncertainties obtained after updating the covariances in the database by means of the template indeed do increase compared to their original values. Even more importantly, the evaluated mean values change noticeably. These modified cross sections impact application calculations significantly, as is demonstrated by employing them in simulations of the effective neutron multiplication factor for a few selected critical assemblies. However, this updated evaluated 239 Pu(n,f) cross section should not be interpreted as the final one that should replace values of the current Neutron Data Standards project. Evaluations for the Neutron Data Standards of the 239 Pu(n,f) cross section must be linked to many other observables included in the associated database, most notably to cross sections for 235 U(n,f), but also to those for 10 B(n, α ), 6 Li(n,t), 238 U(n,f), and 238 U(n, γ ), because of included measurements of the 239 Pu(n,f) cross section that appear as ratios to these reactions. Some of these other reactions are correlated to further observables in the database. Hence, updating uncertainties of data sets of any of these observables can potentially impact the 239 Pu(n,f) cross section. Uncertainties for all measurements of these linked physical observables have to be updated before a comprehensive evaluation of the 239 Pu(n,f) cross section and its corresponding uncertainties can be provided.

239Pu Neutron-induced fission cross-section↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electron–Ion Covariance Reveals Geometry-Resolved Inner-Shell Spectra in CS 2 Photodissociation

The chemical shifts of inner-shell atomic orbitals are highly sensitive to chemical bonding and molecular structure. In evolving systems, however, the spectra of distinct molecular species and geometries overlap, obscuring the underlying chemical dynamics. Here we demonstrate the use of electron–ion covariance analysis to combine the structural sensitivity of Coulomb explosion imaging with inner-shell spectroscopy, yielding geometry-specific spectra of transient and product species. We apply this approach to the excited state dynamics of CS 2 probed by ionization above the S 2p edge. Electron–ion covariance with time- and momentum-selected S + and S 2+ ions isolates distinct S 2p photoelectron spectra for ground-state CS 2 , bent photoexcited CS 2 , the CS photoproduct, and bare atomic sulfur ─ species whose spectra overlap strongly in the channel-averaged measurement. Clear chemical shifts are observed in the covariance photoelectron spectrum for each of these species, all of which are consistent with high-level calculations. Here, by extracting the atomic S contribution to the photoelectron spectrum in a finely time-resolved manner we can disentangle this contribution to the overall time-resolved photoelectron spectrum as the photodissociation proceeds. These results demonstrate the promise of electron–ion covariance as a general approach to geometry-resolved inner-shell spectroscopy, opening a route to tracking structural evolution through chemical shifts in complex photoexcited molecules.

Ionization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analytical and EZmock covariance validation for the DESI 2024 results

The estimation of uncertainties in cosmological parameters is an important challenge in Large-Scale-Structure (LSS) analyses. For standard analyses such as Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and Full-Shape two approaches are usually considered. First: analytical estimates of the covariance matrix use Gaussian approximations and (nonlinear) clustering measurements to estimate the matrix, which allows a relatively fast and computationally cheap way to generate matrices that adapt to an arbitrary clustering measurement. On the other hand, sample covariances are an empirical estimate of the matrix based on an ensemble of clustering measurements from fast and approximate simulations. While more computationally expensive due to the large amount of simulations and volume required, these allow us to take into account systematics that are impossible to model analytically. In this work we compare these two approaches in order to enable DESI's key analyses. We find that the configuration space analytical estimate performs satisfactorily in BAO analyses and its flexibility in terms of input clustering makes it the fiducial choice for DESI's 2024 BAO analysis. On the contrary, the analytical computation of the covariance matrix in Fourier space does not reproduce the expected measurements in terms of Full-Shape analyses, which motivates the use of a corrected mock covariance for DESI's 2024 Full Shape analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mitigating baryonic effects with a theoretical error covariance

ABSTRACT One of the primary sources of uncertainties in modelling the cosmic-shear power spectrum on small scales is the effect of baryonic physics. Accurate cosmology for stage-IV surveys requires knowledge of the matter power spectrum deep in the non-linear regime at the per cent level. Therefore, it is important to develop reliable mitigation techniques to take into account baryonic uncertainties if information from small scales is to be considered in the cosmological analysis. In this work, we develop a new mitigation method for dealing with baryonic physics for the case of the shear angular power spectrum. The method is based on an augmented covariance matrix that incorporates baryonic uncertainties informed by hydrodynamical simulations. We use the results from 13 hydrodynamical simulations and the residual errors arising from a fit to a ΛCDM model using the extended halo model code HMCode to account for baryonic physics. These residual errors are used to model a so-called theoretical error covariance matrix that is added to the original covariance matrix. In order to assess the performance of the method, we use the 2D tomographic shear from four hydrodynamical simulations that have different extremes of baryonic parameters as mock data and run a likelihood analysis comparing the residual bias on Ωm and σ8 of our method and the HMCode for an LSST-like survey. We use different modelling of the theoretical error covariance matrix to test the robustness of the method. We show that it is possible to reduce the bias in the determination of the tested cosmological parameters at the price of a modest decrease in the precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bias on tensor-to-scalar ratio inference with estimated covariance matrices

ABSTRACT We investigate simulation-based bandpower covariance matrices commonly used in cosmological parameter inferences such as the estimation of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. We find that upper limits on r can be biased low by tens of per cent. The underestimation of the upper limit is most severe when the number of simulation realizations is similar to the number of observables. Convergence of the covariance-matrix estimation can require a number of simulations an order of magnitude larger than the number of observables, which could mean $\mathcal {O}(10\ 000)$ simulations. This is found to be caused by an additional scatter in the posterior probability of r due to Monte Carlo noise in the estimated bandpower covariance matrix, in particular, by spurious non-zero off-diagonal elements. We show that matrix conditioning can be a viable mitigation strategy in the case that legitimate covariance assumptions can be made.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating quenching in cosmological simulations of galaxy formation with spectral covariance in the optical window

ABSTRACT Cosmological hydrodynamical simulations provide valuable insights on galaxy evolution when coupled with observational data. Comparisons with real galaxies are typically performed via scaling relations of the observables. Here, we follow an alternative approach based on the spectral covariance in a model-independent way. We build upon previous work by Sharbaf et al. that studied the covariance of high-quality SDSS (Sloan Digital Sky Survey) continuum-subtracted spectra in a relatively narrow range of velocity dispersion ($\sigma \in [100,150]$ km s$^{-1}$). Here, the same analysis is applied to synthetic data from the eagle and IllustrisTNG100 simulations, to assess the ability of these runs to mimic real galaxies. The real and simulated spectra are consistent regarding spectral covariance, although with subtle differences that can inform the implementation of subgrid physics. Spectral fitting done a posteriori on stacks segregated with respect to latent space reveals that the first principal component (PC1) is predominantly influenced by the stellar age distribution, with an underlying age–metallicity degeneracy. Good agreement is found regarding star formation prescriptions but there is disagreement with active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback, that also affects the subset of quiescent galaxies. We show a substantial difference in the implementation of the AGN subgrid prescriptions, regarding central black hole seeding, that could lead to the mismatch. Differences are manifest between these two simulations in the star formation histories stacked with respect to latent space. We emphasize that this methodology only relies on the spectral covariance to assess whether simulations provide a true representation of galaxy formation.

Sharbaf, Z. (ORCID:0009000450545946)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytic Gaussian covariance matrices for galaxy N-point correlation functions

Here, we derive analytic covariance matrices for the N-point correlation functions (NPCFs) of galaxies in the Gaussian limit. Our results are given for arbitrary N and projected onto the isotropic basis functions given by spherical harmonics and Wigner 3j symbols. A numerical implementation of the 4PCF covariance is compared to the sample covariance obtained from a set of lognormal simulations, Quijote dark matter halo catalogues, and MultiDark-Patchy galaxy mocks, with the latter including realistic survey geometry. The analytic formalism gives reasonable predictions for the covariances estimated from mock simulations with a periodic-box geometry. Furthermore, fitting for an effective volume and number density by maximizing a likelihood based on Kullback-Leibler divergence is shown to partially compensate for the effects of a nonuniform window function. Our result is recently shown to facilitate NPCF analysis on a realistic survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Whisper Use of Nuclear Data Covariances [Slides]

Whisper is statistical analysis code using sensitivity/uncertainty-based methods to determine baseline upper subcritical limit (USL) for nuclear criticality safety. Features of Whisper 1.1 include: GLLS method implemented to compute adjusted covariance based on current benchmark suite (1,100+ ICSBEP models), BLO “low-fidelity” covariance data used (44 energy groups), adjusted covariance is pre-computed and saved, and adjusted cross sections are NOT computed. Potential future efforts include: an extension to include angular distributions in benchmark selection and in GLLS adjustment, a move toward more modern covariance data (ENDF/B-VIII.0) and different group structure, and compute and store adjusted cross sections (trivial).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Quantum Time to Manifestly Covariant QFT: On the Need for a Quantum-Action-Based Quantization

In quantum time (QT) schemes, time is promoted to a degree of freedom, allowing Lorentz covariance to be made explicit for single particles. We ask whether this can be lifted to QFT so that Lorentz covariance becomes manifest at the Hilbert-space level, rather than being hidden as in the standard canonical formulation. We address this question by proposing a second-quantized approach in which the elementary particle is the QT particle itself, leading naturally to the notion of spacetime field algebras and of quantum action. We show, however, that a naive many-body construction runs into inconsistencies. To pinpoint their origin we introduce a classical counterpart of the second-quantized formalism, spacetime classical mechanics (SCM), and prove a no-go theorem: Dirac quantization of SCM collapses back to standard QFT and therefore hides covariance. We circumvent this problem by presenting a quantum-action-based quantization that yields a spacetime version of quantum mechanics (SQM), making covariance manifest for (interacting) QFTs. Finally, we show that this resolution is tied to a genuine spacetime generalization of the notion of a quantum state, required by causality and closely connected to recent “states over time” proposals and, in dS/CFT–motivated settings, to microscopic notions of timelike entanglement and emergent time.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wake-Resolving Acoustic Tomography: Advances through Numerical Covariance Methods

Acoustic tomography offers path-integrated measurements of atmospheric velocity and temperature fluctuations with high spatial resolution. Classical implementations of time-dependent stochastic inversion rely on homogeneous, isotropic covariance models that are poorly suited to the anisotropic structure of wind turbine wakes. By directly estimating heterogeneous covariances from large-eddy simulations (LESs) into the time-dependent stochastic inversion operator, we relax implicit assumptions in the analytical models used historically. Retrievals using these LES-informed models improve agreement with true fields in variance, turbulent kinetic energy, and spectral content compared to analytical and precursor-based covariance models. The results indicate that LES-informed covariance models can enhance the accuracy of acoustic tomography retrievals in complex, anisotropic flows such as wind turbine wakes in some cases and highlight instances where analytical models still offer competitive performance, despite their simplifying assumptions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

NGEE Arctic CO2, CH4 and Energy Eddy-Covariance (EC) Flux Tower Auxiliary Measurements, Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2017 - 2019

Measurements began in July 2017 and are made year-round (2017 seasonal only) on the tussock tundra with discontinuous permafrost at the Council Road Site on the Seward Peninsula. CO2, CH4 and energy fluxes using the Eddy Covariance (EC) technique (Baldocchi 2003) and meteorological measurements are reported as 30-minute averages. The tower site is registered with AmeriFlux as US-NGC. See http://ameriflux.lbl.gov/sites/siteinfo/US-NGC for more information. Reported data include: (1) additional/extra meteorological and eddy covariance CO2, CH4 and energy flux data, (2) binned spectra for the three wind components, the sonic temperature and gas densities together with the binned cospectra for covariances of w (vertical wind component) and gas densities, (3) binned ogives (cumulative (co)spectra) for the three wind components, the sonic temperature and gas densities, and (4) tower site footprint matrices. The majority of the files are *.csv with paired visualization footprint files as *.jpg. Meteorological and eddy covariance CO2, CH4 and energy flux data (AmeriFlux BASE data product) are available from AmeriFlux BASE US-NGC NGEE Arctic Council (Torn, 2020) https://doi.org/10.17190/AMF/1634883. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas in the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Better practices for inferring ecosystem water use strategy from eddy covariance data

Eddy covariance data are critical for inferring ecosystem water use strategies. Yet, such inferences are sensitive to a range of assumptions applied across studies, hindering our understanding of water use strategies within and across eddy covariance sites. A recent analysis across 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET datasets found that poor model performance was the key driver of non-robust inferences of ecosystem water use strategies. Here, we leverage this previous analysis to (i) identify the specific assumptions that improve inference model performance across most sites, (ii) explain the mechanisms behind the performance improvements, and (iii) check whether better performance improves water use inference. We find that the common practice of fitting a model to canopy conductance (G c ) derived from the evapotranspiration (ET) observations, rather than to observed ET itself, artificially amplifies data errors and degrades the model performance. Next, accounting for vegetation dynamics by applying a growing season filter or incorporating satellite LAI data improves performance, but the former practice may remove soil water stress periods. Lastly, using the leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit (VPD l ) derived from ET observations as a model input may artificially inflate performance. Based on these results, we recommend selecting observed ET (rather than derived G c ) as the response variable, carefully accounting for vegetation dynamics, and avoiding derived VPD l as a model input; these best practices improve model performance by c. 20% and robustness by c. 80% across all eddy covariance sites. Nevertheless, the performance improvements do not always correspond to more robust inference of water use strategies, as model parameter selection and surface energy budget closure corrections still strongly influence the ecosystem water use parameter estimation in a site-specific manner.

AmeriFlux↗
DOE OSTI2023

Upscaling Wetland Methane Emissions From the FLUXNET–CH4 Eddy Covariance Network (UpCH4 v1.0): Model Development, Network Assessment, and Budget Comparison

Wetlands are responsible for 20%–31% of global methane (CH 4 ) emissions and account for a large source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget. Data-driven upscaling of CH 4 fluxes from eddy covariance measurements can provide new and independent bottom-up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. Here, we develop a six-predictor random forest upscaling model (UpCH4), trained on 119 site-years of eddy covariance CH 4 flux data from 43 freshwater wetland sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 Community Product. Network patterns in site-level annual means and mean seasonal cycles of CH 4 fluxes were reproduced accurately in tundra, boreal, and temperate regions (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency ~0.52–0.63 and 0.53). UpCH4 estimated annual global wetland CH 4 emissions of 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 y –1 for 2001–2018 which agrees closely with current bottom-up land surface models (102–181 TgCH 4 y –1 ) and overlaps with top-down atmospheric inversion models (155–200 TgCH 4 y –1 ). However, UpCH4 diverged from both types of models in the spatial pattern and seasonal dynamics of tropical wetland emissions. We conclude that upscaling of eddy covariance CH 4 fluxes has the potential to produce realistic extra-tropical wetland CH 4 emissions estimates which will improve with more flux data. To reduce uncertainty in upscaled estimates, researchers could prioritize new wetland flux sites along humid-to-arid tropical climate gradients, from major rainforest basins (Congo, Amazon, and SE Asia), into monsoon (Bangladesh and India) and savannah regions (African Sahel) and be paired with improved knowledge of wetland extent seasonal dynamics in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distinguishing the XUV-induced Coulomb explosion dynamics of iodobenzene using covariance analysis

The primary and secondary fragmentation dynamics of iodobenzene following its ionization at 120 eV were determined using three-dimensional velocity map imaging and covariance analysis. Site-selective iodine 4d ionization was used to populate a range of excited polycationic parent states, which primarily broke apart at the carbon-iodine bond to produce I+ with phenyl or phenyl-like cations (C n H x + or C n H, with n = 1 – 6 and x = 1 – 5). The molecular products were produced with varying degrees of internal excitation and dehydrogenation, leading to stable and unstable outcomes. This further allowed the secondary dynamics of C 6 H x 2+ intermediates to be distinguished using native-frame covariance analysis, which isolated these processes in their own centre-of-mass reference frames. Furthermore, the mass resolution of the imaging mass spectrometer used for these measurements enabled the primary and secondary reaction channels to be specified at the level of individual hydrogen atoms, demonstrating the ability of covariance analysis to comprehensively measure the competing fragmentation channels of aryl cations, including those involving intermediate steps.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗