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NASA NTRS2020

Risk and Performance Assessment of Generic Mission Architectures: Showcasing the Artemis Mission

A has initiated a strong push to return face. In this work, we astronaut assess performance and risk for proposed mission architectures using a new Mission Architecture Risk Assessment (MARA) tool. The MARA tool can produce statistics about the availability of components and overall performance of the mission considering potential failures of any of its components. In a Monte Carlo approach, the tool repeats the mission simulation multiple times while a random generator lets modules fail according to their failure rates. The results provide statistically meaningful insights into the overall performance of the chosen architecture. A given mission architecture can be freely replicated in the tool, with the mission timeline and basic characteristics of employed mission modules (habitats, rovers, power generation units, etc.) specified in a configuration file. Crucially, failure rates for each module need to be known or estimated. The tool performs an event-driven simulation of the mission and accounts for random failure events. Failed modules can be repaired, which takes crew time but restores operations. In addition to tracking individual modules, MARA can assess the availability of predefined functions throughout the mission. For instance, the function of resource collection would require a rover to collect the resources, a power generation unit to charge the rover, and a resource processing module. Together, the modules that are required for a given function are called a functional group. Similarly, we can assess how much crew time is available to achieve a mission benefit (e.g. research, building a base, etc) as opposed to spending crew time on repairs. Here we employ the method on the proposed NASA Artemis mission. Artemis aims to return United States astronauts to the lunar surface by 2024. Results provide insights into mission failure probabilities, up- and downtime for individual modules and crew-time resources spent on the repair of failed modules. The tool also allows us to tweak the mission architecture in order to find setups that produce more favorable mission performance. As such, the tool can be an aid in improving the mission architect abling cost-benefit analysis for mission improvement.

Rumpf, Clemens M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development and Characterization of the Integrally Stiffened Cylinder (ISC) Process for Launch Vehicles and Aircraft Fuselage Structures

Over the past decade, NASA Langley has led development of the Integrally Stiffened Cylinder (ISC) Process, a near-net shape, flow-forming technology. This innovative process is being evaluated for launch vehicle and commercial aircraft manufacturing. A thick-walled, cylindrical preform is flow-formed in a single operation into a thin-walled barrel with longitudinal stiffeners. The one-piece, stiffened barrels offer a direct replacement for conventional multi-piece welded or riveted structures. A cost-benefit analysis for launch vehicles estimated that the ISC process offers up to a 50% reduction in manufacturing costs and a 10% reduction in mass. NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and industry partners have teamed to manufacture 10-ft. diameter aluminum ISCs. The intent is to demonstrate the commercial viability of the process at a scale relevant to the commercial launch and aircraft industries. Development activities will be presented, including process scale-up, formability assessment, microstructural analysis, and mechanical property testing.

ISC, flow forming, near net shape↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A New Vision and A More Rational Process Will Advance Space Life Support Through Better Projects

Many space life support assumptions are obviously mistaken but they are generally accepted because they mutually support each other and because they advance a mistaken futuristic vision of closed human ecosystems in space. Many projects have been mistakenly selected to increase life support system closure or reduce launch mass in order to implement this impractical vision. Project members rarely challenge their project’s assumptions and guiding vision. Systems engineering including cost, reliability, risk, and system trade-offs has been very strongly discouraged to prevent rational criticism of these dubious assumptions, the projects, and the ecosystem vision. A more realistic vision can define better near term life support goals and future aspirations that will improve mission support and increase public interest. Given more realistic goals, it will be possible to develop effective technical alternatives, use open rational project selection methods, conduct professional project management, and make swifter progress in the inevitable human advance into space. The current unworkable human space settlement scenario involves moon visits and permanent bases, zero gravity trips to Mars, Mars visits and bases, all leading to extensive human settlements on the moon and Mars. This is unrealistic because the moon and Mars have less than Earth normal gravity and high radiation that can seriously damage human health. A better alternative would use rotating space colonies that produce Earth gravity and are radiation shielded. The attractive fantasy of reproducing terrestrial ecology in space should be replaced by the idea of building a closed system based on advancing technology such as artificial photosynthesis. Past mistaken projects include growing plants for food to replicate terrestrial food sources, recovering small amounts of water from difficult to process waste to achieve high system closure, and using newly designed, lighter, but unreliable hardware to reduce launch mass. The political process supporting the false assumptions, projects, and vision has deliberately prevented the usual systems engineering and cost-benefit analysis. We are going to do much better.

Harry W. Jones↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development and Characterization of the Integrally Stiffened Cylinder (ISC) Process for Launch Vehicles and Aircraft Fuselage Structures

Over the past decade, NASA Langley has led development of the Integrally Stiffened Cylinder (ISC) Process, a near-net-shape, flow-forming technology. This innovative process is being evaluated for launch vehicle and commercial aircraft manufacturing. A thick-walled, cylindrical preform is flow-formed using a single operation into a thin-walled barrel with integral longitudinal stiffeners. The one-piece, stiffened barrels offer a direct replacement for conventional multi-piece, welded or riveted structures. A cost-benefit analysis for launch vehicle cryogenic propellant tanks estimated that the ISC process offers up to a 50% reduction in manufacturing costs and a 10% reduction in mass. NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and industry partners have teamed to manufacture 3-m(10-ft.) diameter aluminum ISCs. The intent is to demonstrate the commercial viability of the process at a scale relevant to the commercial launch and aircraft industries. Development activities will be presented, including process scale-up, formability assessment, and mechanical property testing.

ISC, flow forming, near net shape↗
NASA NTRS2020

Parametric Cost Model for Ground and Space Telescopes

Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to compare cost between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has developed a 5-parameter first-article optical telescope assembly cost model OTA$ (FY17) = $20M x 30(S/G)x D(1.7)x λ(-0.5)x T(-0.25)x e(-0.028) (Y-1960)Where S/G = 1 for space and 0 for ground telescopes, D = diameter, λ= diffraction limited wavelength, T = operating temperature and Y = year of development. The model explains 92% (Adjusted R2) of the cost variation in a database of 47 total ground and space telescope assemblies (OTA). The MSFC model estimates the most likely cost for only the OTA. Where an OTA is defined as the subsystem which collects electromagnetic radiation and focuses it (focal) or concentrates it (afocal) into the science instruments. An OTA consists of the primary mirror, secondary mirror, auxiliary optics and support structure (such as optical bench or truss structure, primary support structure, secondary support structure or spiders, straylight baffles, mechanisms for adjusting the optical components, electronics or power systems for operating these mechanisms, etc.). Finally, duplication only reduces cost for the manufacture of identical systems(i.e. multiple aperture sparse arrays or interferometers). And, while duplication does reduce the cost of manufacturing the mirrors of segmented primary mirror, this cost savings does not appear to manifest itself in the final primary mirror assembly(presumably because the structure for a segmented mirror is more complicated than for a monolithic mirror).

Space Telescope Cost Model, Parametric Cost Model↗
NASA NTRS2022

Development of Advanced Manufacturing Approaches for Single-Piece Launch Vehicle Structures

Advanced, near-net shape manufacturing methods have the potential to enable production of structures with fewer welds and reduced machining requirements. Two such methods that are suitable for the manufacturing of single-piece, stiffened barrel-shaped structures are presented. The first solution deployed existing manufacturing technology to produce a thick-walled barrel with integrally machined stiffeners. In this study, an 8-ft. diameter barrel was produced and subjected to a buckling test. Data on the manufacturing and testing of this barrel are provided and compared against the traditional multi-piece weld construction approach. The single-piece barrel resulted in a 28% greater load carrying capacity than the welded barrel. A second solution utilized a novel flow-forming technique to produce the barrel and stiffeners in one process without the need for welding or machining. This is an emerging manufacturing method known as the Integrally Stiffened Cylinder (ISC) process. This innovative process is being evaluated for launch vehicle and commercial aircraft manufacturing. The one-piece, stiffened ISC barrels, which have been successfully fabricated at 10 ft. in diameter, offer a direct replacement for conventional multi-piece, welded or riveted structures. A cost-benefit analysis for launch vehicle cryogenic propellant tanks estimated that the ISC process offers up to a 50% reduction in manufacturing costs and a 10% reduction in mass.

integrally stiffened cylinder (ISC)↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. Therefore, NASA is developing the ability to evaluate the potential impact of various advanced technologies. By thoroughly understanding the economic impact of advanced aviation technologies and by evaluating how the new technologies will be used in the integrated aviation system, NASA aims to balance its aeronautical research program and help speed the introduction of high-leverage technologies. To meet these objectives, NASA is building the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). NASA envisions ASAC primarily as a process for understanding and evaluating the impact of advanced aviation technologies on the U.S. economy. ASAC consists of a diverse collection of models and databases used by analysts and other individuals from the public and private sectors brought together to work on issues of common interest to organizations in the aviation community. ASAC also will be a resource available to the aviation community to analyze; inform; and assist scientists, engineers, analysts, and program managers in their daily work. The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. Commercial air carriers, in particular, are an important stakeholder in this community. Therefore, to fully evaluate the implications of advanced aviation technologies, ASAC requires a flexible financial analysis tool that credibly links the technology of flight with the financial performance of commercial air carriers. By linking technical and financial information, NASA ensures that its technology programs will continue to benefit the user community. In addition, the analysis tool must be capable of being incorporated into the wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that comprise ASAC. This report describes an Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model (CBM) that meets these requirements. The ASAC CBM is distinguished from many of the aviation cost-benefit models by its exclusive focus on commercial air carriers. The model considers such benefit categories as time and fuel savings, utilization opportunities, reliability and capacity enhancements, and safety and security improvements. The model distinguishes between benefits that are predictable and those that occur randomly. By making such a distinction, the model captures the ability of air carriers to reoptimize scheduling and crew assignments for predictable benefits. In addition, the model incorporates a life-cycle cost module for new technology, which applies the costs of nonrecurring acquisitions, recurring maintenance and operation, and training to each aircraft equipment type independently.

Gaier, Eric M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Risk and value analysis of SETI

This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

NASA Program Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS2000

Holter monitoring: are two days better than one?

The optimal duration of Holter monitoring (HM) to minimize costs and maximize yield is unknown. In a retrospective review of 164 patients referred to a tertiary care center for evaluation with 2 days of HM, we found that 48 hours was not cost effective when compared with the traditional 24-hour period.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS1998

Diagnostic yield and optimal duration of continuous-loop event monitoring for the diagnosis of palpitations. A cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND: Continuous-loop event recorders are widely used for the evaluation of palpitations, but the optimal duration of monitoring is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine the yield, timing, and incremental cost-effectiveness of each week of event monitoring for palpitations. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. PATIENTS: 105 consecutive outpatients referred for the placement of a continuous-loop event recorder for the evaluation of palpitations. MEASUREMENTS: Diagnostic yield, incremental cost, and cost-effectiveness for each week of monitoring. RESULTS: The diagnostic yield of continuous-loop event recorders was 1.04 diagnoses per patient in week 1, 0.15 diagnoses per patient in week 2, and 0.01 diagnoses per patient in week 3 and beyond. Over time, the cost-effectiveness ratio increased from $98 per new diagnosis in week 1 to $576 per new diagnosis in week 2 and $5832 per new diagnosis in week 3. CONCLUSIONS: In patients referred for evaluation of palpitations, the diagnostic yield of continuous-loop event recording decreases rapidly after 2 weeks of monitoring. A 2-week monitoring period is reasonably cost-effective for most patients and should be the standard period for continuous-loop event recording for the evaluation of palpitations.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS2004

The minimal cost of life in space

The cost of keeping people alive in space is assessed from a theoretical viewpoint and using two actual designs for plant growth systems. While life support is theoretically not very demanding, our ability to implement life support is well below theoretical limits. A theoretical limit has been calculated from requirements and the state of the art for plant growth has been calculated using data from the BIO-Plex PDR and from the Cornell CEA prototype system. The very low efficiency of our current approaches results in a high mission impact, though we can still see how to get a significant reduction in cost of food when compared to supplying it from Earth. Seeing the distribution of costs should allow us to improve our current designs. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Cost and Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Remediation, Mitigation,Tracking, and Characterization

Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work(Colvin, Karcz, and Wusk. 2023), referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current paper summarizes the work of Locke and Colvin (2024), which contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Orbital Debris↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

IAC Abstract for Orbital Debris Phase II Report

Orbital debris poses a growing risk for spacecraft operations. This risk has most often been measured by proxies, like the number of debris or expected collisions, but few have attempted quantify the consequences of orbital debris or the costs and benefits of different methods to address the problem. This has made it difficult to assess the trade-offs and relative value among proposed actions for the mitigation, tracking, and remediation of debris. In March of 2023, the NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) took a step toward quantifying these relative values when we released Cost and Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Remediation. Since that time, OTPS has continued to build on this work. We have increased the fidelity of our risk model. For example, we added an ensemble of risk models that use varying assumptions of debris populations and lethality, included debris as small as 1mm, and incorporated atmospheric drag to naturally deorbit debris. We have also expanded our cost-benefit calculations to include action that mitigate and track debris, both large and small. The analysis has several important findings regarding the conditions under which debris remediation is more cost-effective than mitigation and tracking, the value of increased shielding of spacecraft and faster timelines for post-mission disposal, and how changes in the portfolio have interdependent effects. This presentation summarizes the body of work, with a particular focus on the risks and benefits to the global spacecraft population.

orbital debris↗
NASA NTRS2000

Improving The Discipline of Cost Estimation and Analysis

The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning many program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility. This paper presents the plans for the newly established role. Described is how the Independent Program Assessment Office, working with all NASA Centers, NASA Headquarters, other Government agencies, and industry, is focused on creating cost estimation and analysis as a professional discipline that will be recognized equally with the technical disciplines needed to design new space and aeronautics activities. Investments in selected, new analysis tools, creating advanced training opportunities for analysts, and developing career paths for future analysts engaged in the discipline are all elements of the plan. Plans also include increasing the human resources available to conduct independent cost analysis of Agency programs during their formulation, to improve near-term capability to conduct economic cost-benefit assessments, to support NASA management's decision process, and to provide cost analysis results emphasizing "full-cost" and "full-life cycle" considerations. The Agency cost analysis improvement plan has been approved for implementation starting this calendar year. Adequate financial and human resources are being made available to accomplish the goals of this important effort, and all indications are that NASA's cost estimation and analysis core competencies will be substantially improved within the foreseeable future.

Piland, William M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Terminal Area Productivity Airport Wind Analysis and Chicago O'Hare Model Description

This paper describes two results from a continuing effort to provide accurate cost-benefit analyses of the NASA Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program technologies. Previous tasks have developed airport capacity and delay models and completed preliminary cost benefit estimates for TAP technologies at 10 U.S. airports. This task covers two improvements to the capacity and delay models. The first improvement is the completion of a detailed model set for the Chicago O'Hare (ORD) airport. Previous analyses used a more general model to estimate the benefits for ORD. This paper contains a description of the model details with results corresponding to current conditions. The second improvement is the development of specific wind speed and direction criteria for use in the delay models to predict when the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) will allow use of reduced landing separations. This paper includes a description of the criteria and an estimate of AVOSS utility for 10 airports based on analysis of 35 years of weather data.

Hemm, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1978

A method for the analysis of the benefits and costs for aeronautical research and technology

A relatively simple, consistent, and reasonable methodology for performing cost-benefit analyses which can be used to guide, justify, and explain investments in aeronautical research and technology is presented. The elements of this methodology (labeled ABC-ART for the Analysis of the Benefits and Costs of Aeronautical Research and Technology) include estimation of aircraft markets; manufacturer costs and return on investment versus aircraft price; airline costs and return on investment versus aircraft price and passenger yield; and potential system benefits--fuel savings, cost savings, and noise reduction. The application of this methodology is explained using the introduction of an advanced turboprop powered transport aircraft in the medium range market in 1978 as an example.

Williams, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Agriculture, forestry, range resources

In the area of crop specie identification, it has been found that temporal data analysis, preliminary stratification, and unequal probability analysis were several of the factors that contributed to high identification accuracies. Single data set accuracies on fields of greater than 80,000 sq m (20 acres) are in the 70- to 90-percent range; however, with the use of temporal data, accuracies of 95 percent have been reported. Identification accuracy drops off significantly on areas of less than 80,000 sq m (20 acres) as does measurement accuracy. Forest stratification into coniferous and deciduous areas has been accomplished to a 90- to 95-percent accuracy level. Using multistage sampling techniques, the timber volume of a national forest district has been estimated to a confidence level and standard deviation acceptable to the Forest Service at a very favorable cost-benefit time ratio. Range specie/plant community vegetation mapping has been accomplished at various levels of success (69- to 90-percent accuracy). However, several investigators have obtained encouraging initial results in range biomass (forage production) estimation and range readiness predictions. Soil association map correction and soil association mapping in new area appear to have been proven feasible on large areas; however, testing in a complex soil area should be undertaken.

Crea, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Looking to the Future: A Call to Action for Advanced GNC Algorithm Verification and Validation

Future space systems will rely on autonomous Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) functions to efficiently manage safe and precise self-directed operations in uncertain complex environments. Fundamentally, the GNC system plays a key role in mission performance and safety because it computes the ideal trajectory (Guidance), determines the actual trajectory (Navigation), and executes the ideal trajectory (Control) of a vehicle’s position and attitude. Our current GNC systems are highly automated and already have a high degree of complexity. As missions become more ambitious, GNC systems for launch vehicles and space platforms (e.g., spacecraft, probes, and landers) will require higher levels of performance and autonomous operation than previously encountered, for example, this includes GNC for optimizing aerodynamic and/or propulsion performance during planetary entry. This GNC Verification and Validation (V&V) paper highlights concerns with what undoubtedly will be a trend towards increased complexity as fully autonomous GNC systems are developed for future space missions. Clearly, complex GNC systems pose challenges in the prelaunch V&V phase, which is a relatively expensive part of a mission’s life cycle. Essentially the V&V phase is focused on checking that the system effectively meets all the design and operational requirements for the mission. The authors of this paper (i.e., the Inter-Agency Working Group of GNC subject matter experts) focused on this fundamental question over the past few years: Will the GNC engineering community of practice be sufficiently prepared to perform the necessary V&V on evolving GNC architectures that are driven by very demanding requirements for autonomy, resiliency, reconfigurability, adaptability, and mission cost-benefit balance? It is the viewpoint of our Inter-Agency team that the GNC V&V approaches and processes needed to address the next generation of complex GNC systems, which likely will employ various forms of modern GNC technology, are not currently established to the level the community will need in the future. While researchers and practitioners have made some progress in developing new GNC V&V methods for modern GNC systems, a good deal of work remains to be done to codify such methods in a comprehensive and systematic manner. Thus, the Inter-Agency team’s partner organizations [the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the European Space Agency (ESA), the National Centre for Space Studies (CNES), the German Aerospace Center (DLR), the French Aerospace Lab (ONERA), and ISAE-SUPAERO] have conducted preliminary investigations into advancing GNC V&V techniques, which resulted in the identification of the need for education, new V&V tools, and benchmark problems for the GNC community. The necessary proactive steps to be taken to meet the challenges and fill the gaps in GNC V&V are summarized in this paper. The first steps include identifying advanced analysis tools, developing a GNC V&V roadmap, and expanding education and training programs for GNC practitioners. This paper is a call to action and proposes a comprehensive set of recommended actions for all our stakeholders: space agencies, researchers, and industry.

Samir Bennani↗