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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Assessing correlated truncation errors in modern nucleon-nucleon potentials

We test the BUQEYE model of correlated effective field theory (EFT) truncation errors on Reinert, Krebs, and Epelbaum's semilocal momentum-space implementation of the chiral EFT (𝜒⁢EFT ) expansion of the nucleon-nucleon (NN) potential. This Bayesian model hypothesizes that dimensionless coefficient functions extracted from the order-by-order corrections to NN observables can be treated as draws from a Gaussian process (GP). We combine a variety of graphical and statistical diagnostics to assess when predicted observables have a 𝜒⁢EFT convergence pattern consistent with the hypothesized GP statistical model. Our conclusions are that, first, the BUQEYE model is generally applicable to the potential investigated here, which enables statistically principled estimates of the impact of higher EFT orders on observables. Second, parameters defining the extracted coefficients such as the expansion parameter 𝑄 must be well chosen for the coefficients to exhibit a regular convergence pattern—a property we exploit to obtain posterior distributions for such quantities. Third, the assumption of GP stationarity across lab energy and scattering angle is not generally met; this necessitates adjustments in future work. We provide a workflow and interpretive guide for our analysis framework, and show what can be inferred about probability distributions for 𝑄, the EFT breakdown scale Λ 𝑏 , the scale associated with soft physics in the 𝜒⁢EFT potential 𝑚 eff , and the GP hyperparameters. All our results can be reproduced using a publicly available Jupyter notebook, which can be straightforwardly modified to analyze other 𝜒⁢EFT NN potentials.

Bayesian methods↗

Downfolding from ab initio to interacting model Hamiltonians: comprehensive analysis and benchmarking of the DFT+cRPA approach

Abstract Model Hamiltonians are regularly derived from first principles to describe correlated matter. However, the standard methods for this contain a number of largely unexplored approximations. For a strongly correlated impurity model system, here we carefully compare a standard downfolding technique with the best possible ground-truth estimates for charge-neutral excited-state energies and wave functions using state-of-the-art first-principles many-body wave function approaches. To this end, we use the vanadocene molecule and analyze all downfolding aspects, including the Hamiltonian form, target basis, double-counting correction, and Coulomb interaction screening models. We find that the choice of target-space basis functions emerges as a key factor for the quality of the downfolded results, while orbital-dependent double-counting corrections diminish the quality. Background screening of the Coulomb interaction matrix elements primarily affects crystal-field excitations. Our benchmark uncovers the relative importance of each downfolding step and offers insights into the potential accuracy of minimal downfolded model Hamiltonians.

Chemistry↗

Addressing bias in bagging and boosting regression models

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes widespread, there is increasing attention on investigating bias in machine learning (ML) models. Previous research concentrated on classification problems, with little emphasis on regression models. This paper presents an easy-to-apply and effective methodology for mitigating bias in bagging and boosting regression models, that is also applicable to any model trained through minimizing a differentiable loss function. Our methodology measures bias rigorously and extends the ML model's loss function with a regularization term to penalize high correlations between model errors and protected attributes. We applied our approach to three popular tree-based ensemble models: a random forest model (RF), a gradient-boosted model (GBT), and an extreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost). We implemented our methodology on a case study for predicting road-level traffic volume, where RF, GBT, and XGBoost models were shown to have high accuracy. Despite high accuracy, the ML models were shown to perform poorly on roads in minority-populated areas. Our bias mitigation approach reduced minority-related bias by over 50%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling of the high column density systems in the Lyman-Alpha forest

The Lyman-α forests observed in the spectra of high-redshift quasars can be used as a tracer of the cosmological matter density to study baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and the Alcock-Paczynski effect. Extraction of cosmological information from these studies requires modeling of the forest correlations. While the models depend most importantly on the bias parameters of the intergalactic medium (IGM), they also depend on the numbers and characteristics of high-column-density systems (HCDs) ranging from Lyman-limit systems with column densities log N HI /1cm -2 > 17 to damped Lyman-α systems (DLAs) with log N HI /1cm -2 > 20.2. These HCDs introduce broad damped absorption characteristic of a Voigt profile. Consequently they imprint a component on the power spectrum whose modes in the radial direction are suppressed, leading to a scale-dependent bias. Using mock data sets of known HCD content, we test a model that describes this effect in terms of the distribution of column densities of HCDs, the Fourier transforms of their Voigt profiles and the bias of the halos containing the HCDs. Our results show that this physically well-motivated model describes the effects of HCDs with an accuracy comparable to that of the ad-hoc models used in published forest analyses. We also discuss the problems of applying the model to real data, where the HCD content and their bias is uncertain.

Lyman alpha forest↗

A systematic decision-making methodology to formalize the selection of degree of realism in screening analysis of probabilistic risk assessment

In the nuclear power domain, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is used to inform decision-making for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Recently, there has been an increase in the utilization of modeling and simulation (M&S) to support the estimation of PRA inputs. Risk analysts should carefully select the PRA items that require M&S and their degree of realism (DoR) with consideration of the required resources. To support this selection, this article formulates a systematic decision-making approach for the DoR selection. The DoR selection is made based on two predictive decision-making attributes: the predicted differences in safety risk estimate (ΔSaRi) and the cost of analysis (ΔCAN). This research also develops and quantifies causal models to estimate ΔSaRi and ΔCAN. The causal model-based prediction of ΔSaRi and ΔCAN helps reduce the trial-and-error nature of the DoR selection in the PRA screening analysis and provides insights for DoR selection and the gradual refinements of PRA realism. This approach is demonstrated for a case study on fire PRA of NPPs, where an adequate DoR is selected from two fire models: an engineering correlation and a zone model.

Alkhatib, Sari [Department of Nuclear, Plasma, and↗

The Bias-Variance-Correlation Tradeoff and Its Implications for ML Applications in HEP

The bias-variance tradeoff is a well-recognized phenomenon in statistics and machine learning. In this talk, I will discuss an extension, dubbed the bias-variance-correlation tradeoff. Roughly speaking, as the flexibility of a model decreases, the correlations in the outputs of a trained model for different inputs increases. Such correlations have implications for several applications of machine learning in high energy physics, e.g., the use generative models for event generation. In particular, I will argue that claims in the literature of data amplification by generative models stem from ignoring important correlations between the model's outputs for different inputs.

Shyamsundar, Prasanth [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000227↗

Extended Fayans energy density functional: optimization and analysis

The Fayans energy density functional (EDF) has been very successful in describing global nuclear properties (binding energies, charge radii, and especially differences of radii) within nuclear density functional theory. In a recent study, supervised machine learning methods were used to calibrate the Fayans EDF. Building on this experience, in this work we explore the effect of adding isovector pairing terms, which are responsible for different proton and neutron pairing fields, by comparing a 13D model without the isovector pairing term against the extended 14D model. At the heart of the calibration is a carefully selected heterogeneous dataset of experimental observables representing ground-state properties of spherical even–even nuclei. To quantify the impact of the calibration dataset on model parameters and the importance of the new terms, we carry out advanced sensitivity and correlation analysis on both models. The extension to 14D improves the overall quality of the model by about 30%. The enhanced degrees of freedom of the 14D model reduce correlations between model parameters and enhance sensitivity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Continuum Correlations from CFD-DEM Modeling of Conduction Heat Transfer in Granular Flows

Heat transfer between a surface and flowing particles is analyzed to improve the accuracy of continuum models for wall-to-bed heat transfer in a fluidized bed. Discrete element modeling (DEM) is used to model a fluidized bed heat exchanger where heat enters the system through a heated wall. The DEM heat transfer predictions are validated against published experimental work (Brewster et al., 2024) with less than 15% error. In previous work by Morris et al. (2015), a continuum model was developed using data from high-fidelity DEM simulations of chute flows. In the current study, the continuum model is extended and validated for fluidized beds. The sensitivity of the continuum heat transfer model parameters, which was not quantified in previous studies, is also investigated. It is observed that for a given particle with specific properties, e.g. the particle size, roughness, and conduction lens radius, the continuum correlation developed for heat transfer from a heated boundary to the particle bed depends mainly on the solid fraction or porosity of the particle bed for a given fluid. The new continuum heat transfer model is then validated over a wide range of superficial velocities via comparisons to both discrete element and experimental data. It is shown that this correlation is valid for a large range of particle flow conditions from chute flows to fluidized beds with less than 10% error as compared to DEM predictions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Correlating and Simulating Socio-Demographically Driven Residential End-Use Activity Schedules

Incorporating socio-demographic and behavioral considerations into decision-support tools is crucial for identifying gaps and addressing consumer needs to ensure reliable and affordable energy solutions. In energy simulation models, the correlation between socio-demographics and time-use behavior is not well-captured. Thus, we developed a large-scale simulation workflow to generate schedules for 10 residential activities across 24 population segments defined by age, income, and employment status. Using pre-pandemic 2015-2019 American Time Use Survey (ATUS) data, we used ANOVA to confirm the correlation between demographic factors and time use. We explored three k-modes clustering methods-backward, forward, and a new hybrid approach-to delineate the occupancy patterns based on demographics. Using the probability of cluster membership for each population segment and a time inhomogeneous Markov chain to generate activity transition probabilities for each cluster, we simulated 50,000 schedules per segment and validated them against the ATUS data. The hybrid method produced the most socio-demographically differentiated clusters while demonstrating comparable performance to other approaches, with an overall root mean square error of 0.12 for both weekday and weekend schedules. Thus, the hybrid method, where each cluster is dominated by certain demographic segments and occupancy patterns, offers more modeling versatility in terms of scenario analysis. The new workflow improves the socio demographic differentiation of energy consumption by considering differences in time use. This approach enables future research on demographically segmented time of use (TOU) energy consumption, including impacts of TOU utility bills and rate analysis, long-run marginal emissions, and energy retrofits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Stochastic machine learning via sigma profiles to build a digital chemical space

This work establishes a different paradigm on digital molecular spaces and their efficient navigation by exploiting sigma profiles. To do so, the remarkable capability of Gaussian processes (GPs), a type of stochastic machine learning model, to correlate and predict physicochemical properties from sigma profiles is demonstrated, outperforming state-of-the-art neural networks previously published. The amount of chemical information encoded in sigma profiles eases the learning burden of machine learning models, permitting the training of GPs on small datasets which, due to their negligible computational cost and ease of implementation, are ideal models to be combined with optimization tools such as gradient search or Bayesian optimization (BO). Gradient search is used to efficiently navigate the sigma profile digital space, quickly converging to local extrema of target physicochemical properties. While this requires the availability of pretrained GP models on existing datasets, such limitations are eliminated with the implementation of BO, which can find global extrema with a limited number of iterations. A remarkable example of this is that of BO toward boiling temperature optimization. Holding no knowledge of chemistry except for the sigma profile and boiling temperature of carbon monoxide (the worst possible initial guess), BO finds the global maximum of the available boiling temperature dataset (over 1,000 molecules encompassing more than 40 families of organic and inorganic compounds) in just 15 iterations (i.e., 15 property measurements), cementing sigma profiles as a powerful digital chemical space for molecular optimization and discovery, particularly when little to no experimental data is initially available.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Impact of Two-Body Currents on Semi-Exclusive Lepton-Nucleus Reactions

We generalize the spectral-function formalism to describe two-nucleon knockout processes in exclusive kinematics. Significant improvements are introduced both in the treatment of the current operators entering the $Δ$-current contribution and in the modeling of correlations between the two struck nucleons, including a consistent treatment of isospin dependence and the explicit incorporation of angular correlations. The framework is validated through comparisons with relativistic Fermi-gas calculations and with semi-exclusive electron-nucleus scattering data. Our results demonstrate that an accurate description of nuclear dynamics plays a crucial role in modeling this reaction mechanism. We further present a study of selected electroweak observables relevant to neutrino-scattering experiments.

Rocco, N. [Fermilab; Valencia U., IFIC] (ORCID:000↗

Impact of Two-Body Currents on Semi-Exclusive Lepton-Nucleus Reactions

We generalize the spectral-function formalism to describe two-nucleon knockout processes in exclusive kinematics. Significant improvements are introduced both in the treatment of the current operators entering the $Δ$-current contribution and in the modeling of correlations between the two struck nucleons, including a consistent treatment of isospin dependence and the explicit incorporation of angular correlations. The framework is validated through comparisons with relativistic Fermi-gas calculations and with semi-exclusive electron-nucleus scattering data. Our results demonstrate that an accurate description of nuclear dynamics plays a crucial role in modeling this reaction mechanism. We further present a study of selected electroweak observables relevant to neutrino-scattering experiments.

Rocco, N. [Fermilab; Valencia U., IFIC] (ORCID:000↗

Impact of Two-Body Currents on Semi-Exclusive Lepton-Nucleus Reactions

We generalize the spectral-function formalism to describe two-nucleon knockout processes in exclusive kinematics. Significant improvements are introduced both in the treatment of the current operators entering the $Δ$-current contribution and in the modeling of correlations between the two struck nucleons, including a consistent treatment of isospin dependence and the explicit incorporation of angular correlations. The framework is validated through comparisons with relativistic Fermi-gas calculations and with semi-exclusive electron-nucleus scattering data. Our results demonstrate that an accurate description of nuclear dynamics plays a crucial role in modeling this reaction mechanism. We further present a study of selected electroweak observables relevant to neutrino-scattering experiments.

Rocco, N. [Fermilab; Valencia U., IFIC] (ORCID:000↗

Impact of Two-Body Currents on Semi-Exclusive Lepton-Nucleus Reactions

We generalize the spectral-function formalism to describe two-nucleon knockout processes in exclusive kinematics. Significant improvements are introduced both in the treatment of the current operators entering the $Δ$-current contribution and in the modeling of correlations between the two struck nucleons, including a consistent treatment of isospin dependence and the explicit incorporation of angular correlations. The framework is validated through comparisons with relativistic Fermi-gas calculations and with semi-exclusive electron-nucleus scattering data. Our results demonstrate that an accurate description of nuclear dynamics plays a crucial role in modeling this reaction mechanism. We further present a study of selected electroweak observables relevant to neutrino-scattering experiments.

Rocco, N. [Fermilab; Valencia U., IFIC] (ORCID:000↗

The Shortwave Cloud-SST Feedback Amplifies Multi-Decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends: Implications for Observed Cooling

Climate models struggle to produce sea surface temperature (SST) gradient trends in the tropical Pacific comparable to those seen recently in nature. Here, we find that the magnitude of the cloud-SST feedback in the subtropical Southeast Pacific is correlated across models with the magnitude of Eastern Pacific multi-decadal SST variability. A heat-budget analysis reveals coupling between cloud-radiative effects, circulation, and SST gradients in driving multi-decadal variability in the Eastern Pacific. Using this relationship and observed feedback estimates, we find that internal Eastern Pacific SST variability is underestimated in most models. Adjusting for model bias increases the likelihood of generating a cooling trend at least as large as observations in preindustrial control simulations by ~56% on average. If models underestimate climate “noise,” as our results suggest, this bias should be accounted for when attributing the relative importance of forced versus unforced changes in the climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Bayesian Multi-fidelity Neural Network to Predict Nonlinear Frequency Backbone Curves

The use of structural mechanics models during the design process often leads to the development of models of varying fidelity. Often low-fidelity models are efficient to simulate but lack accuracy, while the high-fidelity counterparts are accurate with less efficiency. Here, this paper presents a multi-fidelity surrogate modeling approach that combines the accuracy of a high-fidelity finite element model with the efficiency of a low-fidelity model to train an even faster surrogate model that parameterizes the design space of interest. The objective of these models is to predict the nonlinear frequency backbone curves of the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge benchmark structure which exhibits simultaneous nonlinearities from frictional contact and geometric nonlinearity. The surrogate model consists of an ensemble of neural networks that learn the mapping between low and high-fidelity data through nonlinear transformations. Bayesian neural networks are used to assess the surrogate model's uncertainty. Once trained, the multi-fidelity neural network is used to perform sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of the design parameters on the predicted backbone curves. Additionally, Bayesian calibration is performed to update the input parameter distributions to correlate the model parameters to the collection of experimentally measured backbone curves.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantum computing for energy correlators

In recent years, energy correlators have emerged as powerful observables for probing the fragmentation dynamics of high-energy collisions. We introduce the first numerical strategy for calculating energy correlators using the Hamiltonian lattice approach, providing access to the intriguing nonperturbative dynamics of these observables. Furthermore, motivated by rapid advances in quantum computing hardware and algorithms, we propose a quantum algorithm for calculating energy correlators in quantum field theories. This algorithm includes ground state preparation, the application of source, sink, energy flux and real-time evolution operators, and the Hadamard test. We validate our approach by applying it to the SU(2) pure gauge theory in 2 + 1 dimensions on 3 × 3 and 5 × 5 honeycomb lattices with 𝑗 max = $\frac{1}{2}$ at various couplings, utilizing both classical methods and the quantum algorithm, the latter tested using the IBM emulator for specific configurations. The results are consistent with the expected behavior of the strong coupling regime and motivate a more comprehensive study to probe the confinement dynamics across the weak and strong coupling regimes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗