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Annual Status Report (FY 2020): Performance Assessment for the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility

DOE O 435.1 and DOE M 435.1-1 require that a determination of continued adequacy of the performance assessment (PA) (CP-60089), composite analysis, and disposal authorization statement (DAS) be made annually, and these guidelines must be used to consider the results of data collection and analysis from research, field studies, and monitoring as well as provide the need to update any radioactive waste management basis documents. Beginning in 1996, the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF) started accepting low-level radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes generated during cleanup activities at the Hanford Site. ERDF is composed of a series of cells or disposal areas and can accommodate future design expansions as needed. Currently, there are 10 cells. During this reporting period (fiscal year 2020, which extended from October 1, 2019, through September 30, 2020), approximately 3.39E+04 U.S. tons (3.07E+04 metric tons) of waste was disposed at ERDF. From ERDF inception through September 30, 2020, approximately 18.5 million U.S. tons of waste has been disposed at ERDF, which equates to the consumption of approximately 88% of the disposal volume. As a condition of the DAS, disposal operations within ERDF must be in accordance with the waste acceptance criteria (ERDF-00011) that provide specific radionuclide disposal limits, waste form restrictions, and descriptions of acceptable waste packages in compliance with DOE M 435.1-1 requirements. The ERDF waste acceptance criteria stipulate that waste destined for disposal at ERDF be controlled based on source, physical form, and contaminant concentration and activity levels. There have been no changes to the physical configuration of ERDF or to the waste forms (source, physical form, etc.). No new Unreviewed Disposal Question Screenings or Evaluations have been generated during this reporting period. Therefore, there are no noted impacts to the PA, composite analysis, DAS, or radioactive waste management basis documents resulting from the evaluations and screenings. Sum of fraction analysis shows that the disposed inventory meets both the concentration and inventory threshold requirements. A sum of fractions value is computed for ERDF sensitive radionuclides contributing to the all pathways and air pathway inventory limits. Computed values were 8.85E-02 and 1.78E-01, respectively. The disposed waste inventory remained well under the PA imposed limits. Required monitoring was satisfactorily completed during the fiscal year reporting period (fiscal year 2020). Compliance with performance objectives were met as each of the reported values were well below the established limit. Overall, there are no substantive changes to primary PA assumptions nor changes to the PA analysis conclusion; therefore, compliance with DOE O 435.1 and the DAS is maintained.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Domed, 40-cm-Diameter Ion Optics for an Ion Thruster

Improved accelerator and screen grids for an ion accelerator have been designed and tested in a continuing effort to increase the sustainable power and thrust at the high end of the accelerator throttling range. The accelerator and screen grids are undergoing development for intended use as NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) a spacecraft thruster that would have an input-power throttling range of 1.2 to 6.9 kW. The improved accelerator and screen grids could also be incorporated into ion accelerators used in such industrial processes as ion implantation and ion milling. NEXT is a successor to the NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) thruster - a state-of-the-art ion thruster characterized by, among other things, a beam-extraction diameter of 28 cm, a span-to-gap ratio (defined as this diameter divided by the distance between the grids) of about 430, and a rated peak input power of 2.3 kW. To enable the NEXT thruster to operate at the required higher peak power, the beam-extraction diameter was increased to 40 cm almost doubling the beam-extraction area over that of NSTAR (see figure). The span-to-gap ratio was increased to 600 to enable throttling to the low end of the required input-power range. The geometry of the apertures in the grids was selected on the basis of experience in the use of grids of similar geometry in the NSTAR thruster. Characteristics of the aperture geometry include a high open-area fraction in the screen grid to reduce discharge losses and a low open-area fraction in the accelerator grid to reduce losses of electrically neutral gas atoms or molecules. The NEXT accelerator grid was made thicker than that of the NSTAR to make more material available for erosion, thereby increasing the service life and, hence, the total impulse. The NEXT grids are made of molybdenum, which was chosen because its combination of high strength and low thermal expansion helps to minimize thermally and inertially induced deflections of the grids. A secondary reason for choosing molybdenum is the availability of a large database for this material. To keep development costs low, the NEXT grids have been fabricated by the same techniques used to fabricate the NSTAR grids. In tests, the NEXT ion optics have been found to outperform the NSTAR ion optics, as expected.

Soulas, George C.↗

Performance Assessment for the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (Annual Status Report FY 2021)

DOE O 435.1 and DOE M 435.1-1 require that a determination of continued adequacy of the performance assessment (PA) (CP-60089), composite analysis (CA), and disposal authorization statement (DAS) be made on an annual basis, and that the determination must consider the results of data collection and analysis from research, field studies, and monitoring as well as the need to update any Radioactive Waste Management Basis (RWMB) documents. Beginning in 1996, the Environmental Disposal Facility (ERDF) started accepting low-level radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes that were generated during cleanup activities at the Hanford Site. ERDF is composed of a series of cells or disposal areas and can accommodate future design expansions as needed. Currently, there are eight cells and two supercells in ERDF. Each supercell is the equivalent of two cells. During this reporting period (fiscal year 2021, extending from October 1, 2020, through September 30, 2021), approximately 9.14E+04 metric tons (1.01E+05 U.S. tons) of waste was disposed at ERDF. From ERDF inception through September 30, 2021, approximately 16.9 million metric tons (18.9 U.S. tons) of waste has been disposed of at ERDF, which equates to consumption of approximately 88.7% of the currently constructed disposal volume. According to the design of ERDF, the facility has the ability to be expanded as needed. As a condition of the DAS, disposal operation within ERDF must be in accordance with the waste acceptance criteria (ERDF-00011) that provide specific radionuclide disposal limits, waste form restrictions, and descriptions of acceptable waste packages in compliance with the requirements of DOE M 435-1.1. The ERDF waste acceptance criteria stipulate that waste destined for disposal at ERDF be controlled based on source, physical form, and contaminant concentration and activity levels. There have been no changes to the physical configuration of ERDF or to the waste forms (source, physical form, etc.). No new unreviewed disposal question screenings or evaluations have been generated in this reporting period. Therefore, there are no noted impacts to the PA, CA, DAS, or RWMB resulting from the evaluations and screenings. Sum-of-fractions analysis shows that the disposed inventory meets both the concentration and inventory threshold requirements. A sum-of-fractions value is computed for ERDF sensitive radionuclides contributing to the all pathways and the air pathway inventory limits. Computed values were 7.63E-03 and 1.49E-03, respectively. The disposed waste inventory remained well under the PA imposed limits, as shown in Table 4 and Table 5 in the main text of this report. Required monitoring was satisfactorily completed during the fiscal year reporting period. Compliance with performance objectives were met as each of the reported values were well below the established limit. Overall, there are no substantive changes to primary PA assumptions or changes to the PA analysis conclusion; therefore, compliance with DOE O 435.1 and the DAS is maintained.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Performance Assessment for the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (Annual Status Report FY 2022)

DOE O 435.1 and DOE M 435.1-1 require that a determination of continued adequacy of the performance assessment (PA) (CP-60089), composite analysis (CA), and disposal authorization statement (DAS) be made on an annual basis, and that the determination must consider the results of data collection and analysis from research, field studies, and monitoring as well as the need to update any Radioactive Waste Management Basis (RWMB) documents. Beginning in 1996, the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF) started accepting low-level radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes that were generated during cleanup activities at the Hanford Site. ERDF is composed of a series of cells or disposal areas and can accommodate future design expansions as needed. Currently, there are eight cells and two supercells in ERDF. Each supercell is the equivalent of two cells. During this reporting period (fiscal year 2022, extending from October 1, 2021, through September 30, 2022), approximately 8.52E+04 metric tons (9.39E+04 U.S. tons) of waste was disposed at ERDF. From ERDF inception through September 30, 2022, approximately 17.0 million metric tons (18.7 million U.S. tons) of waste has been disposed at ERDF, which equates to consumption of approximately 89.1% of the currently constructed disposal volume. According to the design of ERDF, the facility has the ability to be expanded as needed. As a condition of the DAS, disposal operations within ERDF must be in accordance with the waste acceptance criteria (ERDF-00011) that provide specific radionuclide disposal limits, waste form restrictions, and descriptions of acceptable waste packages in compliance with the requirements of DOE M 435-1.1. The ERDF waste acceptance criteria stipulate that waste destined for disposal at ERDF be controlled based on source, physical form, and contaminant concentration and activity levels. There have been no changes to the physical configuration of ERDF or to the waste forms (source, physical form, etc.). No new unreviewed disposal question screenings or evaluations have been generated in this reporting period. Therefore, there are no noted impacts to the PA, CA, DAS, or RWMB resulting from the evaluations and screenings. Sum-of-fractions analysis shows that the disposed inventory meets both the concentration and inventory threshold requirements. A sum-of-fractions value is computed for ERDF sensitive radionuclides contributing to the groundwater pathways and the air pathway inventory limits. Computed values were 5.50E-04 and 3.30E-03, respectively. The disposed waste inventory remained well under the PA imposed limits, as shown in Table 4 and Table 5 in the main text of this report. Required monitoring was satisfactorily completed during the fiscal year reporting period. Compliance with performance objectives were met as each of the reported values were well below the established limit. Overall, there are no substantive changes to primary PA assumptions or changes to the PA analysis conclusion; therefore, compliance with DOE O 435.1 and the DAS is maintained.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

On the differences in the vertical distribution of modeled aerosol optical depth over the southeastern Atlantic

Abstract. The southeastern Atlantic is home to an expansive smoke aerosol plume overlying a large cloud deck for approximately a third of the year. The aerosol plume is mainly attributed to the extensive biomass burning activities that occur in southern Africa. Current Earth system models (ESMs) reveal significant differences in their estimates of regional aerosol radiative effects over this region. Such large differences partially stem from uncertainties in the vertical distribution of aerosols in the troposphere. These uncertainties translate into different aerosol optical depths (AODs) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the free troposphere (FT). This study examines differences of AOD fraction in the FT and AOD differences among ESMs (WRF-CAM5, WRF-FINN, GEOS-Chem, EAM-E3SM, ALADIN, GEOS-FP, and MERRA-2) and aircraft-based measurements from the NASA ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) field campaign. Models frequently define the PBL as the well-mixed surface-based layer, but this definition misses the upper parts of decoupled PBLs, in which most low-level clouds occur. To account for the presence of decoupled boundary layers in the models, the height of maximum vertical gradient of specific humidity profiles from each model is used to define PBL heights. Results indicate that the monthly mean contribution of AOD in the FT to the total-column AOD ranges from 44 % to 74 % in September 2016 and from 54 % to 71 % in August 2017 within the region bounded by 25∘ S–0∘ N–S and 15∘ W–15∘ E (excluding land) among the ESMs. ALADIN and GEOS-Chem show similar aerosol plume patterns to a derived above-cloud aerosol product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) during September 2016, but none of the models show a similar above-cloud plume pattern to MODIS in August 2017. Using the second-generation High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL-2) to derive an aircraft-based constraint on the AOD and the fractional AOD, we found that WRF-CAM5 produces 40 % less AOD than those from the HSRL-2 measurements, but it performs well at separating AOD fraction between the FT and the PBL. AOD fractions in the FT for GEOS-Chem and EAM-E3SM are, respectively, 10 % and 15 % lower than the AOD fractions from the HSRL-2. Their similar mean AODs reflect a cancellation of high and low AOD biases. Compared with aircraft-based observations, GEOS-FP, MERRA-2, and ALADIN produce 24 %–36 % less AOD and tend to misplace more aerosols in the PBL. The models generally underestimate AODs for measured AODs that are above 0.8, indicating their limitations at reproducing high AODs. The differences in the absolute AOD, FT AOD, and the vertical apportioning of AOD in different models highlight the need to continue improving the accuracy of modeled AOD distributions. These differences affect the sign and magnitude of the net aerosol radiative forcing, especially when aerosols are in contact with clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bubble Generation in a Flowing Liquid Medium and Resulting Two-Phase Flow in Microgravity

The present investigation reports a study of bubble generation under reduced gravity conditions, using both a co-flow and a cross-flow configuration. This study may be used in the conceptual design of a space-based thermal management system. Ensuing two-phase flow void fraction can be accurately monitored using a single nozzle gas injection system within a continuous liquid flow conduit, as utilized in the present investigation. Accurate monitoring of void fraction leads to precise control of heat and mass transfer coefficients related to a thermal management system; hence providing an efficient and highly effective means of removing heat aboard spacecraft or space stations. Our experiments are performed in parabolic flight aboard the modified DC-9 Reduced Gravity Research Aircraft at NASA Lewis Research Center, using an air-water system. For the purpose of bubble dispersion in a flowing liquid, we use both a co-flow and a cross-flow configuration. In the co-flow geometry, air is introduced through a nozzle in the same direction with the liquid flow. On the other hand, in the cross-flow configuration, air is injected perpendicular to the direction of water flow, via a nozzle protruding inside the two-phase flow conduit. Three different flow conduit (pipe) diameters are used, namely, 1.27 cm, 1.9 cm and 2.54 cm. Two different ratios of nozzle to pipe diameter (D(sub N))sup * are considered, namely (D(sub N))sup * = 0.1 and 0.2, while superficial liquid velocities are varied from 8 to 70 cm/s depending on flow conduit diameter. It is experimentally observed that by holding all other flow conditions and geometry constant, generated bubbles decrease in size with increase in superficial liquid velocity. Detached bubble diameter is shown to increase with air injection nozzle diameter. Likewise, generated bubbles grow in size with increasing pipe diameter. Along the same lines, it is shown that bubble frequency of formation increases and hence the time to detachment of a forming bubble decreases, as the superficial liquid velocity is in-creased. Furthermore, it is shown that the void fraction of the resulting two-phase flow increases with volumetric gas flow rate Q(sub d), pipe diameter and gas injection nozzle diameter, while they decrease with surrounding liquid flow. The important role played by flowing liquid in detaching bubbles in a reduced gravity environment is thus emphasized. We observe that the void fraction can be accurately controlled by using single nozzle gas injection, rather than by employing multiple port injection, since the later system gives rise to unpredictable coalescence of adjacent bubbles. It is of interest to note that empirical bubble size and corresponding void fraction are somewhat smaller for the co-flow geometry than the cross-flow configuration at similar flow conditions with similar pipe and nozzle diameters. In order to supplement the empirical data, a theoretical model is employed to study single bubble generation in the dynamic (Q(sub d) = 1 - 1000 cu cm/s) and bubbly flow regime within the framework of the co-flow configuration. This theoretical model is based on an overall force balance acting on the bubble during the two stages of generation, namely the expansion and the detachment stage. Two sets of forces, one aiding and the other inhibiting bubble detachment are identified. Under conditions of reduced gravity, gas momentum flux enhances, while the surface tension force at the air injection nozzle tip inhibits bubble detachment. In parallel, liquid drag and inertia can act as both attaching and detaching forces, depending on the relative velocity of the bubble with respect to the surrounding liquid. Predictions of the theoretical model compare well with our experimental results. However, at higher superficial liquid velocities, as the bubble loses its spherical form, empirical bubble size no longer matches the theoretical predictions. In summary, we have developed a combined experimental and theoretical work, which describes the complex process of bubble generation and resulting two-phase flow in a microgravity environment. Results of the present study can be used in a wide range of space-based applications, such as thermal energy and power generation, propulsion, cryogenic storage and long duration life support systems, necessary for programs such as NASA's Human Exploration for the Development of Space (HEDS).

Pais, S. C.↗

Overview of ASDEX upgrade results in view of ITER and DEMO

Experiments on ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) in 2021 and 2022 have addressed a number of critical issues for ITER and EU DEMO. A major objective of the AUG programme is to shed light on the underlying physics of confinement, stability, and plasma exhaust in order to allow reliable extrapolation of results obtained on present day machines to these reactor-grade devices. Concerning pedestal physics, the mitigation of edge localised modes (ELMs) using resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) was found to be consistent with a reduction of the linear peeling-ballooning stability threshold due to the helical deformation of the plasma. Conversely, ELM suppression by RMPs is ascribed to an increased pedestal transport that keeps the plasma away from this boundary. Candidates for this increased transport are locally enhanced turbulence and a locked magnetic island in the pedestal. The enhanced D-alpha (EDA) and quasi-continuous exhaust (QCE) regimes have been established as promising ELM-free scenarios. Here, the pressure gradient at the foot of the H-mode pedestal is reduced by a quasi-coherent mode, consistent with violation of the high-n ballooning mode stability limit there. This is suggestive that the EDA and QCE regimes have a common underlying physics origin. In the area of transport physics, full radius models for both L- and H-modes have been developed. These models predict energy confinement in AUG better than the commonly used global scaling laws, representing a large step towards the goal of predictive capability. A new momentum transport analysis framework has been developed that provides access to the intrinsic torque in the plasma core. In the field of exhaust, the X-Point Radiator (XPR), a cold and dense plasma region on closed flux surfaces close to the X-point, was described by an analytical model that provides an understanding of its formation as well as its stability, i.e., the conditions under which it transitions into a deleterious MARFE with the potential to result in a disruptive termination. With the XPR close to the divertor target, a new detached divertor concept, the compact radiative divertor, was developed. Here, the exhaust power is radiated before reaching the target, allowing close proximity of the X-point to the target. No limitations by the shallow field line angle due to the large flux expansion were observed, and sufficient compression of neutral density was demonstrated. With respect to the pumping of non-recycling impurities, the divertor enrichment was found to mainly depend on the ionisation energy of the impurity under consideration. In the area of MHD physics, analysis of the hot plasma core motion in sawtooth crashes showed good agreement with nonlinear 2-fluid simulations. This indicates that the fast reconnection observed in these events is adequately described including the pressure gradient and the electron inertia in the parallel Ohm’s law. Concerning disruption physics, a shattered pellet injection system was installed in collaboration with the ITER International Organisation. Thanks to the ability to vary the shard size distribution independently of the injection velocity, as well as its impurity admixture, it was possible to tailor the current quench rate, which is an important requirement for future large devices such as ITER. Progress was also made modelling the force reduction of VDEs induced by massive gas injection on AUG. The H-mode density limit was characterised in terms of safe operational space with a newly developed active feedback control method that allowed the stability boundary to be probed several times within a single discharge without inducing a disruptive termination. Regarding integrated operation scenarios, the role of density peaking in the confinement of the ITER baseline scenario (high plasma current) was clarified. The usual energy confinement scaling ITER98(p,y) does not capture this effect, but the more recent H20 scaling does, highlighting again the importance of developing adequate physics based models. Advanced tokamak scenarios, aiming at large non-inductive current fraction due to non-standard profiles of the safety factor in combination with high normalised plasma pressure were studied with a focus on their access conditions. A method to guide the approach of the targeted safety factor profiles was developed, and the conditions for achieving good confinement were clarified. Based on this, two types of advanced scenarios (‘hybrid’ and ‘elevated’

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Towards an Enhanced Droplet Activation Scheme for Multi-Moment Bulk Microphysics Schemes

Initial droplet spectra produced upon activation impact the ensuing chain of microphysical processes andtherefore play a crucial role in cloud evolution. This work re-examines dependencies of newly formed clouddroplet size distribution (CDSD) characteristics on environmental and aerosol properties via parcel model simulationsthat serve as the basis for a multi-moment bulk microphysics droplet activation scheme suitable for acloud-resolving model (CRM). It is found that applying a fixed size threshold to define activated droplets versusemploying physical considerations can lead to erroneous activation and overly broad CDSDs for high aerosolconcentration and weak updraft conditions. Aerosol distributions characterized by larger median sizes and/orincreased solubility can result in greater activated droplet numbers, whereas impacts of these parameters onCDSD spectral width depend on both aerosol number concentration and updraft velocity. An expansion of theactivation scheme to include CDSD spectral width is proposed to aid efforts to extend high-order momentprediction to cloud droplet categories in CRMs as well as better represent variability in the activation process onthe cloud scale.simulations to investigate the regime dependence of the relative dispersion(d)1 of newly activated CDSDs, where d is the ratio of dropletradius standard deviation (σ) to the mean radius (r ). C16 demonstratedthat increasing Na resulted in increasing (decreasing) d values via reducedcondensational narrowing (spectral broadening) rates within theAL (UL) regime, with d values peaking in the TR regime. Their findingssuggest a similar regime dependence for d as R09 noted for Nc and helpexplain reportedly conflicting relationships between Na and CDSDspectral characteristics (cf. Hudson and Noble, 2014; Liu et al., 2014),although the applicability of these results within bulk microphysicalschemes was not addressed.Simulating aerosol-cloud interactions with CRMs employing bulkmicrophysics requires that the scheme minimally predict two CDSDparameters, namely mass and number concentrations, and represent thedroplet activation process. Various activation schemes aim to determineNc from aerosol and environmental properties and include analyticalexpressions (e.g., Abdul-Razzak et al., 1998; Morrison et al., 2005) aswell as lookup tables (LUTs) based on detailed parcel model calculations(e.g., Saleeby and Cotton, 2004, hereafter SC04; Segal and Khain,2006; Thompson and Eidhammer, 2014). Expressions to diagnose CDSDspectral width from Nc (Grabowski, 1998; Liu et al., 2006; Morrison andGrabowski, 2007) or cloud water content (Geoffroy et al., 2010) havealso been developed, although more robust methods to obtain CDSDspectral width upon activation are presently lacking. This latter point isrelevant for triple-moment (3 M) bulk microphysics that aim to predictdistribution spectral width alongside number and mass concentrations(e.g., Loftus et al., 2014; Milbrandt and Yau, 2005).The current work extends the findings of C16 to the current LUTbasedaerosol activation scheme used in the Regional AtmosphericModeling System (RAMS) (Cotton et al., 2003; SC04; Saleeby and vanden Heever, 2013, hereafter SvdH13) and additionally examinesaerosol size and solubility impacts on newly activated CDSD properties.Because early cloud development processes such as condensationalgrowth, evaporation, and droplet self-collection depend on and impactCDSD spectral width (Hudson and Yum, 1997; Seifert and Beheng 2001;Lu and Seinfeld, 2006; Igel and van den Heever, 2017), an expansion ofthe activation LUTs to include CDSD spectral width is proposed as apreliminary step for extending 3M prediction to CDSDs in CRMs forimproved simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions.2. MethodologyThe current RAMS two-moment microphysics module determinesthe fractional number of aerosol particles that activate to cloud dropletsfrom five-dimensional LUTs based on model predicted air temperature(T), w, Na, and the geometric median radius (rg) and soluble fraction (ε)of the aerosol size distribution (SvdH13). These LUTs are created offlineusing a one-dimensional Lagrangian adiabatic parcel model (Feingoldand Heymsfield, 1992; Heymsfield and Sabin, 1989; SC04) to simulateexplicit droplet activation and initial CDSD growth for a range of ambientatmospheric conditions [T, w] and binned lognormal aerosol sizedistributions given by= ⎡⎣ ⎢− ⎤⎦ ⎥N r Nr π σr rσ( )2 lnexp[ln( / )]2(ln )aggg22 (1)where r is the dry aerosol particle bin radius and σg is the geometricstandard deviation of the distribution. As the parcel model simulationsfocus on the activation process, other processes such as coalescence,sedimentation, and mixing are not considered. Details of the parcelmodel can be found in SC04 and SvdH13, and only a brief description isprovided here. At the onset of parcel model calculations, the initiallydry aerosol particles in all bins first deliquesce and reach theirequilibrium diameters in a sub-saturated environment based on theKöhler equation for solution droplets. The parcel is then lifted at a fixedupward velocity w, and particle growth by vapor diffusion, along withconcurrent changes in the ambient environment, are iteratively computedusing the Variable-coefficient Ordinary Differential Equation(VODE) solver (Brown et al., 1989). The time resolution of these calculationsis determined within the VODE solver, and the frequency atwhich the solver is called is controlled by a longer model time stepbased on fixed upward parcel displacement increments (Δz) at thespecified w (Δt=Δz/w). Model calculations proceed until the parcelreaches a height 50m beyond the level of maximum saturation ratio(Smax) or total parcel displacement exceeds 2 km. Upon model termination,Smax and the fractional number of aerosols (factv) resulting innewly formed cloud droplets, defined as particles having diameters of atleast 2 μm, are cataloged in the LUTs according to the specified T, w, Na,rg, and ε parameter values.A critical point regarding the creation of these LUTs is the use of afixed minimum diameter (Dmin) to define cloud droplets in the parcelmodel, which can produce erroneous CDSD characteristics, particularlywithin the UL regime. For aerosol distributions with large rg valuesunder low SS conditions, for example, deliquesced aerosols within thelarge tail of the distribution can exceed 2 μm in diameter yet remainunactivated as ‘haze’ particles (Levin and Cotton, 2009; McFigganset al., 2006). For this study, aerosol particles activate to cloud dropletsbased on the critical diameter Dcrit as a function of parcel supersaturationratio (Sr) as in R09:D = σ MS RTρ83 ln( ) critsol wr w (2)where σsol is the surface tension of a solution droplet, Mw and ρw are themolar mass and density of liquid water, respectively, and R is theuniversal gas constant. Additionally, at relatively large w values withinthe AL regime, Nc stabilizes shortly after reaching supersaturation.However, parcel ascent and condensational growth continue beyondthe level of Smax, potentially causing additional narrowing of the CDSD.In the current work, model calculations terminate upon reaching Smaxas changes in Nc are negligible with continued ascent (Peng et al., 2007;R09).Parcel model simulations are performed to examine the sensitivitiesof CDSD characteristics to w, Na, rg, and ε, with the ranges for theseparameters listed in Table 1. Aerosols are assumed to be a mix of solubleand insoluble material of equal density, specified by ε, where fullysoluble aerosols correspond to ammonium sulfate with hygroscopicityparameter κ=0.61 (Petters and Kreidenweis, 2007). FollowingSvdH13, aerosol geometric standard deviation is fixed at σg=1.8, andaerosol distributions (Eq. 1) are partitioned into 100 logarithmicallyspacedbins spanning a size range specific to each rg value. For all simulations,Δz=1 m, and initial values of relative humidity, air temperatureand pressure are set to RH=0.99, T=10 °C and p=900 hPa,respectively.

Loftus, Adrian M.↗

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Space Policy Directive-1 has led to NASA partnerships with commercial entities on procurement which includes the development of the Human Landing System (HLS) [1]. With the goal of delivering human crew to the lunar surface by 2024, system uncertainties become an important obstacle to the maturation of multiple new, driving technologies and mission concepts of the HLS program. As unmitigated uncertainties have previously led to failed development programs, these risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success [2]. Sources of uncertainty include novel engine designs and configurations, increased reliance on cryogenic fluid management(CFM), and refueling technologies—which propagate as high-level performance metrics such as overall propellant mass and engine performance. Also, the occurrence of operational uncertainties—e.g. launch conditions or need to abort during the mission—can cause cascading effects on the rest of the mission that are difficult to definitively quantify, and are outside the scope of control. These concrete examples and other occurrences can be categorized as either epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Epistemic uncertainty arises due to a lack of knowledge and can be alleviated with design and program maturation. Aleatory uncertainty is due to the inherent randomness of the system and cannot be directly reduced, unlike epistemic uncertainty. Robust design and probabilistic methods can compensate for aleatory effects. A taxonomy of uncertainty is referred to for this work [3]. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties has been demonstrated on a three-element HLS concept [1, 4], which allows tracking of current best estimates of the concept and assessment of concept design robustness against uncertainties. A sample case has been completed for this abstract, and an expansion on the methodology will be included in the final paper. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. This abstract will cover the basics of the approach used, and further details and justifications will be in the final paper.The mission profile associated with this three-element concept (Fig 1) was modeled as a set of mission events that facilitated mass changes, idles, or spacecraft maneuvers. The mission profile scope starts with each element’s NRHO orbit insertion and aggregation and ends at post-sortie rendezvous with Orion. More detail on the mission profile will be in the final paper. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as the physics framework to model the HLS architecture for applying the probabilistic methodology [5, 6]. Specifically, a parametric representation of the lander, ascent, and transfer elements and the mission profile of each element was established, with vehicle and mission parameters available as inputs to allow for a dynamic model. Each vehicle stage was modeled with high-level performance metrics, using Isp and propellant mass fraction (PMF) to remain parametric. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. These parameters were frozen at their nominal values for the purposes of baselining architecture performance and sizing the vehicle appropriately based on reference documentation [1]. Range estimating—a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities—is traditionally used with Mass Equipment Lists (MELs), but has been adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in theDYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty [7, 3]. This method was selected due to its application and insight on a system from a bottom-up perspective, independence from historical rules of thumb, and ability to generate sensitivities based on design decisions and uncertainties. As a sample case for the abstract, the boiloff rates of the vehicle elements and the loiter times during the mission (simulating launch time variations and changing window of opportunities) were used with range estimating to provide preliminary results. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology (depicted in Fig. 3, further details in final paper), the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the sample set of uncertainty parameters; 5,000 cases via Latin Hypercube Sampling were computed on the DYREQT architecture model. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Range estimating was applied to the surrogates instead of the actual models, which saves computational expense due to the bulk of cases needed for the Monte Carlo simulation as part of range estimating. Uncertainty parameters were sampled independently from triangular distributions using the DoE ranges as ‘min’ and ‘max’, and the nominal value as ‘most likely’. Based engineering intuition, some uncertainty parameters are correlated—e.g. if the main propellant has a high boil-off rate, the oxidizer should follow suit as both are related to CFM technology.While a Monte Carlo simulation samples all inputs as independent, the results would show model correlations; thus, it is efficient to sample the inputs as correlated. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo. A table for the DoE ranges and probability distribution parameters is shown in Table 1, and more details on Correlated Monte Carlo Simulations will be discussed in the final paper. The model’s resulting DoE showed that multivariate polynomial equations fit via least squares method captured its behavior accurately for the sample case. For the Correlated Monte Carlo Simulation, a positive correlation between fuel and oxidizer boiloff rates was used as a demonstration. 10,000 cases were computed with the surrogates and the launched masses for each vehicle element was collated. The results can be displayed in a probability density function (PDF), showing the impact of the uncertainty parameters chosen. Integrating the PDFs will yield a cumulative distribution function (CDF) that shows the cumulative probability of a given value on the x-axis. For the sample case, the elements’ launch mass margin was calculated and represented in as CDFs, as a demonstrated representation of figures of merit for the HLS concept. For the lander and ascent elements, the NRHO mass insertion limit is 16t; the transfer element has a limit of 30t [1]. It can be seen with Figure 2 that this probabilistic methodology can provide insight into mass margin with respect to the uncertainties being modeled. Currently, the results show that the lander (descent) vehicle element has the most restrictive design space; it is the only element to show a 10% probability of negative margin. Further analysis on the Monte Carlo results will show sensitivities for driving constraints and parameters for architecture feasibility, which can lead to establishing potential mission rules.The combination of range estimating with a parametric architecture model for HLS demonstrated the capability of this probabilistic methodology in a sample case. As the HLS development progresses, this methodology has the potential for keeping current best estimates of architecture performance for awarded concepts due to the flexibility in DYREQT’s modeling framework and its parametric nature. Concept maturation and increased epistemic knowledge can be injected into the model probabilistic modeling, and thus continue to track probability of mission success.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗