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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1976

Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach

A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

Buffalano, C.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Risk Management Technique for design and operation of facilities and equipment

The Risk Management System collects information from engineering, operating, and management personnel to identify potentially hazardous conditions. This information is used in risk analysis, problem resolution, and contingency planning. The resulting hazard accountability system enables management to monitor all identified hazards. Data from this system are examined in project reviews so that management can decide to eliminate or accept these risks. This technique is particularly effective in improving the management of risks in large, complex, high-energy facilities. These improvements are needed for increased cooperation among industry, regulatory agencies, and the public.

Fedor, O. H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The Deep Space Network information system in the year 2000

The Deep Space Network (DSN), the largest, most sensitive scientific communications and radio navigation network in the world, is considered. Focus is made on the telemetry processing, monitor and control, and ground data transport architectures of the DSN ground information system envisioned for the year 2000. The telemetry architecture will be unified from the front-end area to the end user. It will provide highly automated monitor and control of the DSN, automated configuration of support activities, and a vastly improved human interface. Automated decision support systems will be in place for DSN resource management, performance analysis, fault diagnosis, and contingency management.

Markley, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Illumination requirements for operating a space remote manipulator

Critical issues and requirements involved in illuminating remote manipulator operations in space help establish engineering designs for these manipulators. A remote manipulator is defined as any mechanical device that is controlled indirectly or from a distance by a human operator for the purpose of performing potentially dangerous or hazardous tasks to increase safety, reliability, and efficiency. Future space flights will rely on remote manipulators for a variety of tasks including satellite repair and servicing, structural assembly, data collection and analysis, and performance of contingency tasks. Carefully designed illumination of these manipulators will assure that these tasks will be completed efficiently and successfully. Studies concerning the influence of illumination on operation of a remote manipulator are few. Available results show that illumination can influence how successfully a human operates a remote manipulator. The intent of this study was to more fully examine this topic.

Chandlee, George O.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Community-wide Validation of Geospace Model Ground Magnetic Field Perturbation Predictions to Support Model Transition to Operations

In this paper we continue the community-wide rigorous modern space weather model validation efforts carried out within GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. In this particular effort, in coordination among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), modelers, and science community, we focus on studying the models' capability to reproduce observed ground magnetic field fluctuations, which are closely related to geomagnetically induced current phenomenon. One of the primary motivations of the work is to support NOAA SWPC in their selection of the next numerical model that will be transitioned into operations. Six geomagnetic events and 12 geomagnetic observatories were selected for validation.While modeled and observed magnetic field time series are available for all 12 stations, the primary metrics analysis is based on six stations that were selected to represent the high-latitude and mid-latitude locations. Events-based analysis and the corresponding contingency tables were built for each event and each station. The elements in the contingency table were then used to calculate Probability of Detection (POD), Probability of False Detection (POFD) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) for rigorous quantification of the models' performance. In this paper the summary results of the metrics analyses are reported in terms of POD, POFD and HSS. More detailed analyses can be carried out using the event by event contingency tables provided as an online appendix. An online interface built at CCMC and described in the supporting information is also available for more detailed time series analyses.

MAGNETIC↗
NASA NTRS1988

An assessment of nominal and contingency altitude reboost scenarios during Space Station assembly

The results of an analysis of several reboost scenarios for nominal and contingency SS operations during the Phase I assembly sequence are presented. Space Station program requirements on assembly and operational altitudes are outlined, and essential features of the SS reaction control system are described. A nominal reboost strategy designed to meet the current program requirements is presented. In addition, reboost strategies are developed for several contingency scenarios, including one missed STS mission, and an extended STS outage. It is shown that the time-averaged propellant 'cost' of maintaining altitude is greatest for equivalent continuous-thrusting altitude maintenance; it decreases with increasing reboost/rendezvous time interval to an asymptotic minimum value.

Bilardo, Vincent J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1971

The cryogenics analysis program for Apollo mission planning and analysis

The cryogenics analysis program was developed as a simplified tool for use in premission planning operations for the Apollo command service module. Through a dynamic development effort, the program has been extended to include real time and postflight analysis capabilities with nominal and contingency planning features. The technical aspects of the program and a comparison of ground test and mission data with data generated by using the cryogenics analysis program are presented. The results of the program capability to predict flight requirements also are presented. Comparisons of data from the program with data from flight results, from a tank qualifications program, and from various system anomalies that have been encountered are discussed. Future plans and additional considerations for the program also are included. Among these plans are a three tank management scheme for hydrogen, venting profile generation for Skylab, and a capability for handling two gas atmospheres. The plan for two gas atmospheres will involve the addition of the capability to handle nitrogen as well as oxygen and hydrogen.

Scott, W.↗
NASA NTRS1997

International Space Station (ISS) Accommodation of a Single US Assured Crew Return Vehicle (ACRV)

The following report was generated to give the International Space Station (ISS) Program some additional insight into the operations and issues associated with accommodating a single U.S. developed Assured Crew Return Vehicle (ACRV). During the generation of this report, changes in both the ISS and ACRV programs were factored into the analysis with the realization that most of the work performed will eventually need to be repeated once the two programs become more integrated. No significant issues associated with the ISS accommodating the ACRV were uncovered. Kinematic analysis of ACRV installation showed that there are viable methods of using Shuttle and Station robotic manipulators. Separation analysis demonstrated that the ACRV departure path clears the Station structure for all likely contingency scenarios. The payload bay packaging analysis identified trades that can be made between payload bay location, Shuttle Remote Manipulator System (SRMS) reach and eventual designs of de-orbit stages and docking adapters.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Contingency Power Study for Short Haul Civil Tiltrotor

AlliedSignal Engines (AE) defined a number of concepts that significantly increased the horsepower of a turboshaft engine to accommodate the loss of an engine and enable the safe landing of a twin-engined, 40-passenger, short haul civil tiltrotor. From these concepts, "Water/Methanol Injection," a "Better Power Turbine Than Required," and a "Secondary Combustor For Interturbine Reheat" were chosen, based on system safety and economics, for more detailed examination. Engine performance, mission, and cost analysis of these systems indicated contingency power levels of 26 to 70 percent greater than normal rated takeoff could be attained for short durations, thus enabling direct operating cost savings between 2 and 6 percent.

Eisenberg, Joseph D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A Comment on the Suspected Solar Neutrino-Solar Activity Connection

Recently, it has been proposed that there exists a highly statistically significant (at greater than or equal to 98% level of confidence) relationship between Ar-37 production rate (viz., solar neutrinos) and the Ap geomagnetic index (viz., solar particles), based on the (chi)-square goodness-of-fit test and correlation analysis, for the interval 1970-1990. While a relationship between the two parameters, indeed, seems to be discernible, the strength of the relationship has been overstated. Instead of being significant at the afore-mentioned level of confidence, the relationship is found to be significant at only greater than or equal to 95% level of confidence, based on Yates' modification to the (chi)-square test for 2 x 2 contingency tables. Likewise, while correlation analysis yields a value of r = 0.2691, it is important to note that such a value suggests that only about 7% of the variance can be 'explained' by the inferred correlation and that the remaining 93% of the variance must be attributed to other sources.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A comment on the suspected solar neutrino -- solar activity connection

Recently, it has been proposed that there exists a highly statistically significant (at greater than or equal to 98% level of confidence) relationship between Ar-37 production rate (namely, solar neutrinos) and the Ap geomagnetic index (namely, solar particles), based on the chi-square goodness-of-fit test and correlation analysis, for the interval 1970-1990. While a relationship between the two parameters, indeed, seems to be discernible, the strength of the relationship has been overstated. Instead of being significant at the afore-mentioned level of confidence, the relationship is found to be significant at only greater than or equal to 95% level of confidence, based on Yates' modification to the chi-square test for 2 x 2 contingency tables. Likewise, while correlation analysis yields a value of r = 0.2691, it is important to note that such a value suggests that only about 7% of the variance can be 'explained' by the inferred correlation and that the remaining 93% of the variance must be attributed to other sources.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Step 1: Human System Integration (HSI) FY05 Pilot-Technology Interface Requirements for Contingency Management

This document involves definition of technology interface requirements for Contingency Management. This was performed through a review of Contingency Management-related, HSI requirements documents, standards, and recommended practices. Technology concepts in use by the Contingency Management Work Package were considered. Beginning with HSI high-level functional requirements for Contingency Management, and Contingency Management technology elements, HSI requirements for the interface to the pilot were identified. Results of the analysis describe (1) the information required by the pilot to have knowledge of system failures and associated contingency procedures, and (2) the control capability needed by the pilot to obtain system status and procedure information. Fundamentally, these requirements provide the candidate Contingency Management technology concepts with the necessary human-related elements to make them compatible with human capabilities and limitations. The results of the analysis describe how Contingency Management operations and functions should interface with the pilot to provide the necessary Contingency Management functionality to the UA-pilot system. Requirements and guidelines for Contingency Management are partitioned into four categories: (1) Health and Status and (2) Contingency Management. Each requirement is stated and is supported with a rationale and associated reference(s).

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1996

On Determining the Rise, Size, and Duration Classes of a Sunspot Cycle

The behavior of ascent duration, maximum amplitude, and period for cycles 1 to 21 suggests that they are not mutually independent. Analysis of the resultant three-dimensional contingency table for cycles divided according to rise time (ascent duration), size (maximum amplitude), and duration (period) yields a chi-square statistic (= 18.59) that is larger than the test statistic (= 9.49 for 4 degrees-of-freedom at the 5-percent level of significance), thereby, inferring that the null hypothesis (mutual independence) can be rejected. Analysis of individual 2 by 2 contingency tables (based on Fisher's exact test) for these parameters shows that, while ascent duration is strongly related to maximum amplitude in the negative sense (inverse correlation) - the Waldmeier effect, it also is related (marginally) to period, but in the positive sense (direct correlation). No significant (or marginally significant) correlation is found between period and maximum amplitude. Using cycle 22 as a test case, we show that by the 12th month following conventional onset, cycle 22 appeared highly likely to be a fast-rising, larger-than-average-size cycle. Because of the inferred correlation between ascent duration and period, it also seems likely that it will have a period shorter than average length.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Comparison of Probabilistic and Deterministic Campaign Analysis for Human Space Exploration

Human space exploration is by its very nature an uncertain endeavor. Vehicle reliability, technology development risk, budgetary uncertainty, and launch uncertainty all contribute to stochasticity in an exploration scenario. However, traditional strategic analysis has been done in a deterministic manner, analyzing and optimizing the performance of a series of planned missions. History has shown that exploration scenarios rarely follow such a planned schedule. This paper describes a methodology to integrate deterministic and probabilistic analysis of scenarios in support of human space exploration. Probabilistic strategic analysis is used to simulate "possible" scenario outcomes, based upon the likelihood of occurrence of certain events and a set of pre-determined contingency rules. The results of the probabilistic analysis are compared to the nominal results from the deterministic analysis to evaluate the robustness of the scenario to adverse events and to test and optimize contingency planning.

Merrill, R. Gabe↗
NASA NTRS2005

RTO Technical Publications: A Quarterly Listing

A quarterly listing of RTO technical publications is presented. The topics include: Handbook on the Analysis of Smaller-Scale Contingency Operations in Long Term Defence Planning; 2) Radar Polarimetry and Interferometry; 3) Combat Casualty Care in Ground-Based Tactical Situations: Trauma Technology and Emergency Medical Procedures; and 4) RTO Technical Publications: A Quarterly Listing

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1987

Contingency support using adaptive telemetry extractor and expert system technologies

The 'telemetry analysis logic for operations support' prototype system constitutes an expert system that is charged with contingency planning for the NASA Hubble Space Telescope (HST); this system has demonstrated the feasibility of using an adaptive telemetry extractor/reformatter that is integrated with an expert system. A test case generated by a simulator has demonstrated the reduction of the time required for analysis of a complex series of failures to a few minutes, from the hour usually required. The HST's telemetry extractor will be able to read real-time engineering telemetry streams and disk-based data. Telemetry format changes will be handled almost instantaneously.

Bryant, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2019

Renewable Energy Contingencies in Power Systems: Concept and Case Study

This paper introduces the concept of renewable energy contingencies that represent long-term/extended variability of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources, namely, significant periods (e.g., days/weeks) of low wind/solar availability. These contingencies have not received much attention to date but are likely to emerge as a major issue in some countries such as India as the share of VRE increases. Using 38 years of climate model reanalysis data for wind over India, we demonstrate that low periods of wind contingency below long-term (Indian) national average of 5 m/s can extend for more than 100 days in several zones some of which are deploying large wind farms. Even in some of the best wind resource areas in India with long term average wind speed close to 7 m/s, low wind days (e.g., 5 m/s which is substantially below average) can extend up to 60 days. We propose a four-step methodology around a co-optimization based energy-ancillary services dispatch model to assess the impact of renewable contingency and implemented it for the state of Tamil Nadu, the most wind-rich state of India. We have estimated that annual renewable contingency cost impact of 5 GW additional wind in Tamil Nadu to be in the range of US$27-76 million pa. Planning analysis should embrace the concept of renewable contingency to recognize these costs and put in place necessary spinning reserve and back-up generation resources.

Mohar Chattopadhyay↗