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At least 55 records · Page 3

A Variational Analysis of Divergence Profiles Based upon Column-Integrated Mass, Moisture and Energetic Constraints with Satellite-Derived Boundary Fluxes

A diagnostic study is made of the mean global divergent circulation based upon a constrained least action principle that minimizes column-integrated divergent kinetic energy subject to constraints on mass, moisture, available potential energy (ape) and total kinetic energy. The concept of gross moist stability was incorporated in the prescription of Lagrange weight function associated with the ape constraint in order to simulate the net effects of cumulus convective heating in the tropics. The variational analyses were validated satisfactorily with the original NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis divergence fields for the Septembers of 1987 and 1988. Further analyses show that in the tropical ascending regions, the analyzed divergences are dominated by the mass and ape constraints; the moisture constraint is implicitly satisfied while the kinetic energy constraint is highly dependent on the ape constraint. In the subtropical descending regions, the analyzed divergences are dominated by the mass, moisture and kinetic energy constraints; the ape constraint is implicitly satisfied. When the constraint integrals were blended with the satellite-derived boundary flux data from GPCP precipitation and ERBE/SRB radiation estimates, the newly analyzed divergences are significantly stronger than the reanalysis divergences in the areas where the estimates of precipitation rates are higher. With few exceptions, the increases in upper-layer divergences are coupled with nearly equal increases in lower-layer convergences.

Lu, Huei-Lin↗

Numerical methods for the inverse problem of density functional theory

Here, the inverse problem of Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT) is often solved in an effort to benchmark and design approximate exchange-correlation potentials. The forward and inverse problems of DFT rely on the same equations but the numerical methods for solving each problem are substantially different. We examine both problems in this tutorial with a special emphasis on the algorithms and error analysis needed for solving the inverse problem. Two inversion methods based on partial differential equation constrained optimization and constrained variational ideas are introduced. We compare and contrast several different inversion methods applied to one-dimensional finite and periodic model systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Documentation of operational protocol for the use of MAMA software

Image analysis of Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) micrographs is a complex process that can vary significantly between analysts. The factors causing the variation are numerous, and the purpose of Task 2b is to develop and test a set of protocols designed to minimize variation in image analysis between different analysts and laboratories, specifically using the MAMA software package, Version 2.1. The protocols were designed to be “minimally invasive”, so that expert SEM operators will not be overly constrained in the way they analyze particle samples. The protocols will be tested using a round-robin approach where results from expert SEM users at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Savannah River National Laboratory, and the National Institute of Standards and Testing will be compared. The variation of the results will be used to quantify uncertainty in the particle image analysis process. The round-robin exercise will proceed with 3 levels of rigor, each with their own set of protocols, as described below in Tasks 2b.1, 2b.2, and 2b.3. The uncertainty will be developed using NIST standard reference material SRM 1984 “Thermal Spray Powder – Particle Size Distribution, Tungsten Carbide/Cobalt (Acicular)” [Reference 1]. Full details are available in the Certificate of Analysis, posted on the NIST website (http://www.nist.gov/srm/).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cosmological neutrino mass: a frequentist overview in light of DESI

We derive constraints on the neutrino mass using a variety of recent cosmological datasets, including DESI BAO, the full-shape analysis of the DESI matter power spectrum and the one-dimensional power spectrum of the Lyman-α forest (P1D) from eBOSS quasars as well as the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The constraints are obtained in the frequentist formalism by constructing profile likelihoods and applying the Feldman-Cousins prescription to compute confidence intervals. This method avoids potential prior and volume effects that may arise in a comparable Bayesian analysis. Parabolic fits to the profiles allow one to distinguish changes in the upper limits from variations in the constraining power σ of the different data combinations. We find that all profiles in the ΛCDM model are cut off by the ∑m ν ≥ 0 bound, meaning that the corresponding parabolas reach their minimum in the unphysical sector. The most stringent 95% C.L. upper limit is obtained by the combination of DESI DR2 BAO, Planck PR4 and CMB lensing at 53 meV, below the minimum of 59 meV set by the normal ordering. The corresponding constraining power σ is 43 meV, which highlights the importance of the cut-off by negative values in the determination of the upper limit. Extending ΛCDM to non-zero curvature and w 0 w a CDM relaxes the constraints past 59 meV again, but only w 0 w a CDM exhibits profiles with a minimum at a positive value. Additionally, we extend the formalism to constrain the lightest neutrino mass. For DESI DR2 BAO, Planck PR4 and CMB lensing, we find confidence limits at 20 and 19 meV for normal and inverted ordering, respectively. Using a combination of DESI DR1 full-shape, BBN and eBOSS Lyman-α P1D, we successfully constrain the neutrino mass independently of the CMB. This combination yields m l ≤ 97 and 98 meV in the normal and inverted orderings, and total neutrino mass ∑m ν ≤ 285 meV (95% C.L.). The addition of DESI full-shape or Lyman-α P1D to CMB and DESI BAO results in small but noticeable improvement of the constraining power of the data. Lyman-α free-streaming measurements especially improve the constraint. Since they are based on eBOSS data, this sets a promising precedent for upcoming DESI data.

Frequentist statistics↗

Dark energy survey year 1 results: Constraining baryonic physics in the Universe

ABSTRACT Measurements of large-scale structure are interpreted using theoretical predictions for the matter distribution, including potential impacts of baryonic physics. We constrain the feedback strength of baryons jointly with cosmology using weak lensing and galaxy clustering observables (3 × 2pt) of Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 data in combination with external information from baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and Planck cosmic microwave background polarization. Our baryon modelling is informed by a set of hydrodynamical simulations that span a variety of baryon scenarios; we span this space via a Principal Component (PC) analysis of the summary statistics extracted from these simulations. We show that at the level of DES Y1 constraining power, one PC is sufficient to describe the variation of baryonic effects in the observables, and the first PC amplitude (Q1) generally reflects the strength of baryon feedback. With the upper limit of Q1 prior being bound by the Illustris feedback scenarios, we reach $\sim 20{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ improvement in the constraint of $S_8=\sigma _8(\Omega _{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.788^{+0.018}_{-0.021}$ compared to the original DES 3 × 2pt analysis. This gain is driven by the inclusion of small-scale cosmic shear information down to 2.5 arcmin, which was excluded in previous DES analyses that did not model baryonic physics. We obtain $S_8=0.781^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ for the combined DES Y1+Planck EE+BAO analysis with a non-informative Q1 prior. In terms of the baryon constraints, we measure $Q_1=1.14^{+2.20}_{-2.80}$ for DES Y1 only and $Q_1=1.42^{+1.63}_{-1.48}$ for DESY1+Planck EE+BAO, allowing us to exclude one of the most extreme AGN feedback hydrodynamical scenario at more than 2σ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Constraining Formation Models of Binary Black Holes with Gravitational-wave Observations

Gravitational waves (GWs) from binary black hole (BBH) mergers provide a new probe of massive-star evolution and the formation channels of binary compact objects. By coupling the growing sample of BBH systems with population synthesis models, we can begin to constrain the parameters of such models and glean unprecedented knowledge about the inherent physical processes that underpin binary stellar evolution. In this study, we apply a hierarchical Bayesian model to mass measurements from a synthetic GW sample to constrain the physical prescriptions in population models and the relative fraction of systems generated from various channels. We employ population models of two canonical formation scenarios in our analysis—isolated binary evolution involving a common-envelope phase and dynamical formation within globular clusters—with model variations for different black hole natal kick prescriptions. We show that solely with chirp mass measurements, it is possible to constrain natal kick prescriptions and the relative fraction of systems originating from each formation channel with O(100) of confident detections. This framework can be extended to include additional formation scenarios, model parameters, and measured properties of the compact binary.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The exit-time problem for a Markov jump process

The purpose of this paper is to consider the exit-time problem for a finite-range Markov jump process, i.e, the distance the particle can jump is bounded independent of its location. Additionally, such jump diffusions are expedient models for anomalous transport exhibiting super-diffusion or nonstandard normal diffusion. We refer to the associated deterministic equation as a volume-constrained nonlocal diffusion equation. The volume constraint is the nonlocal analogue of a boundary condition necessary to demonstrate that the nonlocal diffusion equation is well-posed and is consistent with the jump process. A critical aspect of the analysis is a variational formulation and a recently developed nonlocal vector calculus. Finally, this calculus allows us to pose nonlocal backward and forward Kolmogorov equations, the former equation granting the various moments of the exit-time distribution.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The NANOGrav Nine-year Data Set: Measurement and Analysis of Variations in Dispersion Measures

We analyze dispersion measure (DM) variations of 37 millisecond pulsars in the nine-year North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) data release and constrain the sources of these variations. DM variations can result from a changing distance between Earth and the pulsar, inhomogeneities in the interstellar medium, and solar effects. Variations are significant for nearly all pulsars, with characteristic timescales comparable to or even shorter than the average spacing between observations. Five pulsars have periodic annual variations, 14 pulsars have monotonically increasing or decreasing trends, and 14 pulsars show both effects. Of the four pulsars with linear trends that have line-of-sight velocity measurements, three are consistent with a changing distance and require an overdensity of free electrons local to the pulsar. Several pulsars show correlations between DM excesses and lines of sight that pass close to the Sun. Mapping of the DM variations as a function of the pulsar trajectory can identify localized interstellar medium features and, in one case, an upper limit to the size of the dispersing region of 4 au. Four pulsars show roughly Kolmogorov structure functions (SFs), and another four show SFs less steep than Kolmogorov. One pulsar has too large an uncertainty to allow comparisons. We discuss explanations for apparent departures from a Kolmogorov-like spectrum, and we show that the presence of other trends and localized features or gradients in the interstellar medium is the most likely cause.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Temperature Humidity and Sea Level Pressure Increments Induced by 1DVAR Analysis of GPS Refractivity

The Global Positioning System (GPS) transmitted signals are affected by the atmosphere. Using the radio occultation technique, where a receiver is placed on a low-Earth-orbiting platform. it is possible to perform soundings. by measuring the bending angles of the rays. The information can be converted into atmospheric refractivity. We have developed a one dimensional variational (1DVAR) analysis that uses GPS/MET 1995 refractivity and 6-hour FVDAS (Finite Volume Data Assimilation System) forecasts as background information to constrain the retrievals. The analysis increments are defined as 1DVAR minus background temperature, humidity and sea level pressure. Before assimilating the 1DVAR profiles into the FVDAS. the increments need to be understood. First, some bias could be induced in the retrievals when confronted with actual biased data: second. bias in the back-round could create undesired bias in the retrievals. Anv bias in the analyses will ultimately change the climatology of the model the retrievals will be assimilated into. We relate the increments to the reduction of the difference between observed minus computed refractivity profiles. We also point out the difference in the mean increments using backgrounds which have assimilated either NESDIS TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) operational retrievals or Data Assimilation Office (DAO) TOVS interactive retrievals. The climatology of the model in terms of refractivity is significantly different and this impacts the GPS 1DVAR increments. This testifies that changing the basic load of assimilated data has an influence on the impact the GPS data may have in a DAS.

Poli, Paul↗

The Nanograv Nine-Year Data Set: Measurement and Analysis of Variations in Dispersion Measures

We analyze dispersion measure(DM) variations of 37 millisecond pulsars in the nine-year North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) data release and constrain the sources of these variations. DM variations can result from a changing distance between Earth and the pulsar, inhomogeneities in the interstellar medium, and solar effects. Variations are significant for nearly all pulsars, with characteristic timescales comparable to or even shorter than the average spacing between observations. Five pulsars have periodic annual variations, 14 pulsars have monotonically increasing or decreasing trends, and 14 pulsars show both effects. Of the four pulsars with linear trends that have line-of-sight velocity measurements, three are consistent with a changing distance and require an overdensity of free electrons local to the pulsar. Several pulsars show correlations between DM excesses and lines of sight that pass close to the Sun. Mapping of the DM variations as a function of the pulsar trajectory can identify localized interstellar medium features and, in one case, an upper limit to the size of the dispersing region of 4 au. Four pulsars show roughly Kolmogorov structure functions (SFs), and another four show SFs less steep than Kolmogorov. One pulsar has too large an uncertainty to allow comparisons. We discuss explanations for apparent departures from a Kolmogorov-like spectrum, and we show that the presence of other trends and localized features or gradients in the interstellar medium is the most likely cause.

pulsars: general↗

Contribution to Solar Brightness of Small-Size Magnetic Elements

Irradiance variability is mostly driven by surface magnetism, each magnetic feature contributing in a different manner. The contribution of small-size magnetic elements observed ubiquitously at high-spatial resolution on the solar photosphere, is still debated, as such features are mostly unresolved on full-disk images employed to model irradiance variability. Understanding the contribution to solar brightness of small-size magnetic elements, especially in quiet regions, will help understanding irradiance variability on the decadal and longer temporal scales, which, in turn, are fundamental to understand the role of the Sun on the Earth’s climate. We present a preliminary study of the brightness of small-size magnetic elements using high-spatial resolution spectro-polarimetric observations acquired with the National Science Foundations Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST) during Commissioning Phase 1. We focus on the Intensity contrast vs magnetic field relation, which is a fundamental observable in irradiance studies. Previous studies mostly focused on the FeI 630.1/630.2 nm spectral range and so to contextualize our results we focus here on this spectral region as well. By comparing DKIST results with MURaM magneto-hydrodynamic simulations, and with previous results published in the literature, we conclude that our results are in agreement with studies conducted on HINODE observations. We plan to extend the analysis to UV and IR ViSP observations and VBI blue continuum in order to better constrain the quiet sun contribution to spectral irradiance variations.

SMD↗

Enriched East Asian oxygen isotope of precipitation indicates reduced summer seasonality in regional climate and westerlies

Speleothem oxygen isotope records over East Asia reveal apparently large and rapid paleoclimate changes over the last several hundred thousand years. However, what the isotopic variation actually represent in terms of the regional climate and circulation is debated. We present an answer that emerges from an analysis of the interannual variation in amount-weighted annual δ 18 O of precipitation over East Asia as simulated by an isotope-enabled model constrained by large-scale atmospheric reanalysis fields. 18 O-enriched years have reduced summer seasonality both in terms of precipitation isotopes and in the large-scale circulation. Changes occur between June and October, where the δ 18 O of precipitation (δ 18 O p ) transitions from the isotopically heavier winter to the lighter summer regime. For 18 O-enriched years, this transition is less pronounced. Variations in precipitation amount alone are insufficient to explain the amount-weighted annual δ 18 O p between 18 O-enriched and 18 O-depleted years. Reduced summer seasonality is also expressed in the low-level monsoonal southerlies and upper-level westerlies; for the latter, the northward migration across the Tibetan Plateau in the summer is less pronounced. Our result thus implicates the westerlies across the plateau as the proximate cause of East Asian paleomonsoon changes, manifested as a modulation of its summer peak.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal variations of snow depth on Mars

Using topography collected over one martian year from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter on the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft, we have measured temporal changes in the elevation of the martian surface that correlate with the seasonal cycle of carbon dioxide exchange between the surface and atmosphere. The greatest elevation change (1.5 to 2 meters) occurs at high latitudes ( above 80 degrees ), whereas the bulk of the mass exchange occurs at lower latitudes (below 75 degrees N and below 73 degrees S). An unexpected period of sublimation was observed during northern hemisphere autumn, coincident with dust storms in the southern hemisphere. Analysis of MGS Doppler tracking residuals revealed temporal variations in the flattening of Mars that correlate with elevation changes. The combined changes in gravity and elevation constrain the average density of seasonally deposited carbon dioxide to be 910 +/- 230 kilograms per cubic meter, which is considerably denser than terrestrial snow.

Carbon Dioxide↗

A Constrained Data Assimilation Algorithm Based on GSI Hybrid 3D-EnVar and Its Application

Abstract Data assimilation (DA) at mesoscales is important for severe weather forecasts, yet the techniques of data assimilation at this scale remain a challenge. This study introduces dynamical constraints in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional ensemble variational (3D-EnVar) data assimilation algorithm to enable the use of high-resolution surface observations of precipitation to improve atmospheric analysis at mesoscales. The constraints use the conservations of mass and moisture. Mass constraint suppresses the unphysical high-frequency oscillation, while moisture conservation constrains the atmospheric states to conform with the observed high-resolution precipitation. We show that the constrained data assimilation (CDA) algorithm significantly reduced the spurious residuals of the mass and moisture budgets compared to the original data assimilation (ODA). A case study is presented for a squall line over the Southern Great Plains on 20 May 2011 during Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program by using ODA or CDA analysis as initial condition of forecasts. The state variables, and the location and intensity of the squall line are better simulated in the CDA experiment. Results show how surface observation of precipitation can be used to improve atmospheric analysis through data assimilation by using the dynamical constraints of mass and moisture conservations.

Wang, Jia↗

Evidence for Interannual to Decadal Variations in Hadley and Walker Circulations and Links to Water and Energy Fluxes

Mass and energy transports associated with the Hadley and Walker circulations are important components of the earth s climate system and are strongly linked to hydrologic processes. Interannual to decadal variation in these flows likely signify a combination of natural climate noise as well as a response to anthropgenic forcing. There remains considerable uncertainty in quantifying variations in these flows. Evidence in the surface pressure record supports a weakening of the Walker circulation over the Pacific in recent decades. Conversely the NCEP / NCAR and ERA 40 reanalyses indicate that the Hadley circulation has increased in strength over the last two decades, though these analyses depict significantly different mass circulation changes. Interestingly, the NCEP - II / DOE reanalysis contains essentially no Hadley circulation changes. Most climate model integrations anticipate a weakening of both tropical circulations associated with stronger static stability. Clearly there is much uncertainty not only with the mass transports, but also how they are linked to water and energy balance of the planet through variations in turbulent heat and radiative fluxes and horizontal exports / imports of energy. Here we examine heat and water budget variations from a number of reanalysis products and focus on the linear and nonlinear response of ENSO warm and cold events as opportunities to study budget variations over the past 15-20 years. Our analysis addresses such questions as To what extent do Hadley and Walker Cell variations compensate each other on mass and energy transport? Do static stability adjustments appear to constrain fractional precipitation response vs. fractional water vapor response? We appeal to constraints offered by GPCP precipitation, SSWI ocean evaporation estimates, and ISCCP-FD radiative fluxes, and other satellite data sets to interpret and confirm reanalysis-based diagnostics. Using our findings we also attempt to place in context the recent findings that tropical ocean evaporation increased by order 5% or more during the 1990s, reconciling this with GPCP precipitation variations.

Robertson, Franklin↗

Design and Evaluation of the Terminal Area Precision Scheduling and Spacing System

This paper describes the design, development and results from a high fidelity human-in-the-loop simulation of an integrated set of trajectory-based automation tools providing precision scheduling, sequencing and controller merging and spacing functions. These integrated functions are combined into a system called the Terminal Area Precision Scheduling and Spacing (TAPSS) system. It is a strategic and tactical planning tool that provides Traffic Management Coordinators, En Route and Terminal Radar Approach Control air traffic controllers the ability to efficiently optimize the arrival capacity of a demand-impacted airport while simultaneously enabling fuel-efficient descent procedures. The TAPSS system consists of four-dimensional trajectory prediction, arrival runway balancing, aircraft separation constraint-based scheduling, traffic flow visualization and trajectory-based advisories to assist controllers in efficient metering, sequencing and spacing. The TAPSS system was evaluated and compared to today's ATC operation through extensive series of human-in-the-loop simulations for arrival flows into the Los Angeles International Airport. The test conditions included the variation of aircraft demand from a baseline of today's capacity constrained periods through 5%, 10% and 20% increases. Performance data were collected for engineering and human factor analysis and compared with similar operations both with and without the TAPSS system. The engineering data indicate operations with the TAPSS show up to a 10% increase in airport throughput during capacity constrained periods while maintaining fuel-efficient aircraft descent profiles from cruise to landing.

Swenson, Harry N.↗

Characteristic Ultraviolet/Optical Timescales in Active Galactic Nuclei

The UV/optical light curves of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) may be roughly characterized by a periodic fractional flux variations of approx. 10% on timescales of 1 month. The physical mechanism(s) responsible remain ill defined. We present a structure function analysis, i.e., measure the power distribution over a range of timescales tau, of 13 AGNs to constrain the origin of UV/optical emission. On timescales tau approx. 5- 60 days, the mean UV and optical power density spectra (PDS) are equivalent. This may suggest that the underlying energy generating mechanism is identical. The combined W/optical PDS is P(f) proportional to f(sup -alpha)- with alpha = 2.13(sup +0.22, sub -0.06). For sources with measured X-ray PDS indices, we find they are indistinguishable from their UV/optical counterparts. This supports scenarios whereby X-rays are generated via Compton upscattering of UV photons, to later radiatively drive optical variations. At the same time, we present evidence for characteristic variability timescales tau(sub char) of approx. 5-100 days in 10 sources. These variability timescales combined with reverberation based masses M suggest a M - tau(sub char) relationship; higher mass systems have larger characteristic timescales. The UV tau(sub char) may possibly reflect dynamical or accretion disk thermal timescales. We find suggestive evidence for a dichotomy, at tau approx. 30 days and M approx. l0(exp 7) solar mass, between short- and long-time scale optical variations. These optical variations may be attributable to dynamical and accretion disk thermal or starburst activity timescales, respectively.

Collier, Stefan↗

Assimilation of repeated woody biomass observations constrains decadal ecosystem carbon cycle uncertainty in aggrading forests

Forest carbon sink strengths are governed by plant growth, mineralization of dead organic matter, and disturbance. Across landscapes, remote sensing can provide information about aboveground states of forests and this information can be linked to models to estimate carbon cycling in forests close to steady state. For aggrading forests this approach is more challenging and has not been demonstrated. Here in this paper we apply a Bayesian approach, linking a simple model to a range of data, to evaluate their information content, for two aggrading forests. We compare high information content analyses using local observations with retrievals using progressively sparser remotely sensed information (repeated, single, and no woody biomass observations). The net biome productivity of both forests is constrained to be a net sink with <2 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 variation across the range of inputs. However, the sequestration of particular carbon pool(s) varies with assimilated biomass information. Assimilation of repeated biomass observations reduces uncertainty and/or bias in all ecosystem C pools not just wood, compared to analyses using single or no stock information. As verification, our repeated biomass analysis explains 78–86% of variation in litter dynamics at one forest, while at the second forest total dead organic matter estimates are within observational uncertainty. The uncertainty of retrieved ecosystem traits in the repeated biomass analysis is reduced by up to 50% compared to analyses with less biomass information. This study quantifies the importance of repeated woody observations in constraining the dynamics of both wood and dead organic matter, highlighting the benefit of proposed remote sensing missions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗