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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

The Application of Modeling and Simulation in Capacity Management within the ITIL Framework

Tightly integrating modeling and simulation techniques into Information Technology Infrastructure Library (ITIL) practices can be one of the driving factors behind a successful and cost-effective capacity management effort for any Information Technology (IT) system. ITIL is a best practices framework for managing IT infrastructure, development and operations. Translating ITIL theory into operational reality can be a challenge. This paper aims to highlight how to best integrate modeling and simulation into an ITIL implementation. For cases where the project team initially has difficulty gaining consensus on investing in modeling and simulation resources, a clear definition for M&S implementation into the ITIL framework, specifically its role in supporting Capacity Management, is critical to gaining the support required to garner these resources. This implementation should also help to clearly define M&S support to the overall system mission. This paper will describe the development of an integrated modeling approach and how best to tie M&S to definitive goals for evaluating system capacity and performance requirements. Specifically the paper will discuss best practices for implementing modeling and simulation into ITIL. These practices hinge on implementing integrated M&S methods that 1) encompass at least two or more predictive modeling techniques, 2) complement each one's respective strengths and weaknesses to support the validation of predicted results, and 3) are tied to the system's performance and workload monitoring efforts. How to structure two forms of modeling: statistical and simUlation in the development of "As Is" and "To Be" efforts will be used to exemplify the integrated M&S methods. The paper will show how these methods can better support the project's overall capacity management efforts.

Rahmani, Sonya↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ensemble Methodologies for Astronaut Cancer Risk Assessment in the face of Large Uncertainties

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

space radiation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ensemble Cancer Risk Model for Astronaut Risk Assessment

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

Lisa C Simonsen↗
NASA NTRS2019

Consensus on Aquatic Primary Productivity Field Protocols for Satellite Validation and Model Synthesis

The NASA PACE project, in conjunction with the IOCCG, EUMETSAT, and JAXA, have initiated an Aquatic Primary Productivity working group, with the aim to develop community consensus on multiple methods for measuring aquatic primary productivity used for satellite validation and model synthesis. A workshop to commence the working group efforts was held December 05-07, 2018 at the University Space Research Association headquarters in Columbia, MD U.S.A., bringing together 26 active researchers from 16 institutions. The group discussed the primary differences, nuances, scales, uncertainties, definitions, and best practices for measurements of primary productivity derived from in situ/on-deck/laboratory radio/stable isotope incubations, dissolved oxygen concentrations (from incubations or autonomous platforms such as floats or gliders), oxygen-argon ratios, triple oxygen isotope, natural fluorescence, and FRRF/ETR/kinetic analysis. These discussions highlighted the necessity to move the community forward towards the establishment of climate-quality primary productivity measurements that follow uniform protocols, which is imperative to ensure that existing and future measurements can be compared, assimilated, and their uncertainties determined for model development and validation. The specific deliverable resulting from of this activity will be a protocol document, published in coordination with the IOCCG. This presentation will discuss the findings of the meeting, and address future activities of the working group.

Vandermeulen, Ryan A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Going beyond BEM with BEM: an insight into dynamic inflow effects on floating wind turbines

Blade element momentum (BEM) theory is the backbone of many industry-standard wind turbine aerodynamic models. To be applied to a broader set of engineering problems, BEM models have been extended since their inception and now include several empirical corrections. These models have benefitted from decades of development and refinement and have been extensively used and validated, proving their adequacy in predicting aerodynamic forces of horizontal-axis wind turbine rotors in most scenarios. However, the analysis of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) introduces new sets of challenges, especially if new-generation large and flexible machines are considered. In fact, due to the combined action of wind and waves and their interaction with the turbine structure and control system, these machines are subject to unsteady motion and thus unsteady inflow on the wind turbine's blades, which could put BEM models to the test. Consensus has not been reached on the accuracy limits of BEM in these conditions. This study contributes to the ongoing research on the topic by systematically comparing four different aerodynamic models, ranging from BEM to computational fluid dynamics, in an attempt to shed light on the unsteady aerodynamic phenomena that are at stake in FOWTs and whether BEM is able to model them appropriately. Simulations are performed on the UNAFLOW 1:75 scale rotor during imposed harmonic surge and pitch motion. Experimental results are available for these conditions and are used for baseline validation. The rotor is analyzed in both rated operating conditions and low wind speeds, where unsteady aerodynamic effects are expected to be more pronounced. Results show that BEM, despite its simplicity, can adequately model the aerodynamics of FOWTs in most conditions if augmented with a dynamic inflow model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Approach to Transactive Energy Systems with Commercial Buildings

A microgrid with solar, storage, and responsive load resources has been implemented and tested on an urban academic campus. Through modeling and simulation, a consensus transactive energy mechanism has been implemented, with each resource participating as a virtual battery. Most owners of large buildings don't have the information and expertise to develop and validate suitable models of their buildings using available tools. To mitigate this adoption barrier, a data-driven building model has been implemented and validated. It uses 5-minute weather data, 3-second revenue meter data, energy audit information, and a load reduction test conducted by the building owner.

Buildings, data-driven modeling, deep learning, en↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anisotropic angular scattering models of elastic electron-neutral collisions for Monte Carlo plasma simulations

Many laboratory and industrial plasma applications require accurate modeling techniques to understand the interplay between microscopic and macroscopic processes. A prime example of this interplay is how particle and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation codes describe angular scattering of electrons following elastic scattering events. The forward peaked nature of high energy electron elastic scattering is relatively trivial to accurately describe in plasma simulations. However, for lower energy collisions, which produce near isotropic or backward peaked differential cross sections, there is not a strong consensus among the plasma modeling community on how to best describe these angular scattering trends. Here, in this study, we propose a systematic method to approximate the aforementioned non-trivial angular scattering behavior with a formula that can be readily implemented in particle-in-cell (PIC) and/or MC plasma simulation codes. The present approach is specifically applied to fusion relevant atomic hydrogen and helium, as well as for molecular hydrogen, and results are also applicable to the atomic isotopes and homonuclear molecular isotopologues of these species. Comparisons between the present angular distribution function and benchmark scattering data were used to validate the proposed models. In addition, two-term Boltzmann calculations and PIC direct simulation MC simulations revealed that the proposed angular distribution function is accurate, agreeing very well with benchmark convergent close-coupling scattering calculations, and electron transport measurements. These studies confirmed that the present angular distribution function model can be utilized without the need of renormalization to the momentum transfer cross section (as opposed to using the elastic scattering integrated cross section), which has been suggested by several studies in order to correct for deficient angular scattering models, and to agree with transport measurements. Hence, the present anisotropic angular scattering model can be utilized to accurately model the momentum transfer as well as the electron trajectories of elastic collisions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2017

Search for Primitive Matter in the Solar System

Recent astronomical observations and theoretical modeling led to a consensus regarding the global scenario of the formation of young stellar objects (YSO) from a cold molecular cloud of interstellar dust (organics and minerals) and gas that, in some cases, leads to the formation of a planetary system. In the case of our Solar System, which has already evolved for approximately 4567 Ma, the quest is to access, through the investigation of planets, moons, cometary and asteroidal bodies, meteorites, micrometeorites, and interplanetary dust particles, the primitive material that contains the key information about the early Solar System processes and its evolution. However, laboratory analyses of extraterrestrial samples, astronomical observations and dynamical models of the Solar System evolution have not brought yet any conclusive evidence on the nature and location of primitive matter in the Solar System, preventing a clear understanding of its early stages.

Libourel, G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing net zero pathways across the Atlantic A model inter-comparison exercise between the Energy Modeling Forum 37 and the European Climate and Energy Modeling Forum

Europe and North America account for 32 % of current carbon emissions. Due to distinct legacy systems, energy infrastructure, socioeconomic development, and energy resource endowment, both regions have different policy and technological pathways to reach net zero by the mid-century. Against this background, our paper examines the results from the net zero emission scenarios for Europe and North America that emerged from the collaboration of the European and American Energy Modeling Forums. Here, in our analysis, we perform an inter-comparison of various integrated assessments and bottom-up energy system models. A clear qualitative consensus emerges on five main points. First, Europe and the United States reach net zero targets with electrification, demand-side reductions, and carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Second, the use of carbon capture and sequestration is more predominant in the United States due to a steeper decarbonization schedule. Third, the buildings sector is the easiest to electrify in both regions. Fourth, the industrial sector is the hardest to electrify in the United States and transportation in Europe. Fifth, in both regions, the transition in the energy mix is driven by the substitution of coal and natural gas with solar and wind, but to a different extent.

100 % renewables↗
DOE OSTI2023

Galactic cosmic ray simulation at the NASA space radiation laboratory – Progress, challenges and recommendations on mixed-field effects

For missions beyond low Earth orbit to the moon or Mars, space explorers will encounter a complex radiation field composed of various ion species with a broad range of energies. Such missions pose significant radiation protection challenges that need to be solved in order to minimize exposures and associated health risks. An innovative galactic cosmic ray simulator (GCRsim) was recently developed at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The GCRsim technology is intended to represent major components of the space radiation environment in a ground analog laboratory setting where it can be used to improve understanding of biological risks and serve as a testbed for countermeasure development and validation. The current GCRsim consists of 33 energetic ion beams that collectively simulate the primary and secondary GCR field encountered by humans in space over the broad range of particle types, energies, and linear energy transfer (LET) of interest to health effects. A virtual workshop was held in December 2020 to assess the status of the NASA baseline GCRsim. Workshop attendees examined various aspects of simulator design, with a particular emphasis on beam selection strategies. Experimental results, modeling approaches, areas of consensus, and questions of concern were also discussed in detail. This report includes a summary of the GCRsim workshop and a description of the current status of the GCRsim. This information is important for future advancements and applications in space radiobiology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Apparent temperatures of neutron-poor and neutron-rich compound nuclei

The possibility of the dependence of the nuclear caloric curve on neutron excess sets a limit on the accuracy of our knowledge of the nuclear equation of state, and thus impacts predictive capabilities of nuclear reaction and nuclear astrophysics models. To date, theoretical models have not reached consensus on the magnitude or sign on the asymmetry dependence. To provide constraints, we have measured evaporated particles and heavy residues for complete and incomplete fusion-evaporation reactions in inverse kinematics. The temperatures extracted from the observed light charged particles tend to favor higher temperatures for the neutron-rich fused systems, though they are near the limits of the systematic uncertainty. The present measurement may be used as an upper limit to constrain the asymmetry dependence of the nuclear caloric curve.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2015

Proposal for a Sample Pilot Response Model

Regulations to establish operational and performance requirements for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are being developed by a consortium of government, industry and academic institutions. Those requirements will apply to the new detect and avoid (DAA) systems and other equipment necessary to integrate UAS with the National Airspace System (NAS) and are determined according to their contribution to the overall safety case for such an integration. In order to perform end-to-end verification and validation of DAA requirements, a committee accepted pilot response model is needed to emulate UAS pilots in closed-loop Monte Carlo fast-time simulations. This briefing focuses on background of the pilot model used in previous Airspace Concept Evaluation System studies, identification of strengths and weaknesses in that model, and proposals on model improvements. The briefing also looks to build consensus around a common architecture and assumptions for modeling the pilot for UAS DAA systems.

Santiago, Confesor↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Processing of Airspace Concept Evaluations Using FASTE-CNS as a Pre- or Post-Simulation CNS Analysis Tool

As NASA speculates on and explores the future of aviation, the technological and physical aspects of our environment increasing become hurdles that must be overcome for success. Research into methods for overcoming some of these selected hurdles have been purposed by several NASA research partners as concepts. The task of establishing a common evaluation environment was placed on NASA's Virtual Airspace Simulation Technologies (VAST) project (sub-project of VAMS), and they responded with the development of the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES). As one examines the ACES environment from a communication, navigation or surveillance (CNS) perspective, the simulation parameters are built with assumed perfection in the transactions associated with CNS. To truly evaluate these concepts in a realistic sense, the contributions/effects of CNS must be part of the ACES. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has supported the Virtual Airspace Modeling and Simulation (VAMS) project through the continued development of CNS models and analysis capabilities which supports the ACES environment. NASA GRC initiated the development a communications traffic loading analysis tool, called the Future Aeronautical Sub-network Traffic Emulator for Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (FASTE-CNS), as part of this support. This tool allows for forecasting of communications load with the understanding that, there is no single, common source for loading models used to evaluate the existing and planned communications channels; and that, consensus and accuracy in the traffic load models is a very important input to the decisions being made on the acceptability of communication techniques used to fulfill the aeronautical requirements. Leveraging off the existing capabilities of the FASTE-CNS tool, GRC has called for FASTE-CNS to have the functionality to pre- and post-process the simulation runs of ACES to report on instances when traffic density, frequency congestion or aircraft spacing/distance violations have occurred. The integration of these functions require that the CNS models used to characterize these avionic system be of higher fidelity and better consistency then is present in FASTE-CNS system. This presentation will explore the capabilities of FASTE-CNS with renewed emphasis on the enhancements being added to perform these processing functions; the fidelity and reliability of CNS models necessary to make the enhancements work; and the benchmarking of FASTE-CNS results to improve confidence for the results of the new processing capabilities.

Mainger, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Contemporary Analysis of the O'Neill-Glaser Model for Space-Based Solar Power and Habitat Construction

In 1975 Gerard O Neill published in the journal Science a model for the construction of solar power satellites. He found that the solar power satellites suggested by Peter Glaser would be too massive to launch economically from Earth, but could be financially viable if the workforce was permanently located in free space habitats and if lunar and asteroid materials were used for construction. All new worldwide electrical generating capacity could be then achieved by solar power satellites. The project would financially break even in about 20 years after which it would generate substantial income selling power below fossil fuel prices. Two NASA / Stanford University led studies at Ames Research center during the summers of 1974 and 1976 found the concept technically sound and developed a detailed financial parametric model. Although the project was not undertaken when suggested in the 1970s, several contemporary issues make pursuing the O Neill -- Glaser concept more compelling today. First, our analysis suggests that if in the first ten years of construction that small habitats (compared to the large vista habitats envisioned by O Neill) supporting approximately 300 people were utilized, development costs of the program and the time for financial break even could be substantially improved. Second, the contemporary consensus is developing that carbon free energy is required to mitigate global climate change. It is estimated that 300 GW of new carbon free energy would be necessary per year to stabilize global atmospheric carbon. This is about 4 times greater energy demand than was considered by the O Neill Glaser model. Our analysis suggests that after the initial investments in lunar mining and space manufacturing and transportation, that the profit margin for producing space solar power is very high (even when selling power below fossil fuel prices). We have investigated the financial scaling of ground launched versus space derived space solar power satellites. We find that for the carbon mitigation case even modernized ground launched space solar power satellites are not financially viable. For space derived solar power satellites, however, the increased demand makes them break even substantially sooner and yield much higher profit. Third, current awareness is increasing about the dangers of humanity remaining a single planet species. Our technological power has been increasing relative to the size of the planet Earth. Since the middle of the 20th century our technological power has grown large relative to our planet's size. This presents a very real potential for human self-extinction. We argue that the potential for human self-extinction is increasing with time in proportion to the exponential growth of our technological power making self-extinction likely within this century if humanity remains a single planet species. The O Neill model of multiple independent free space habitats, it is argued, can protect humanity from extinction in the same way that portfolio diversification protects ones assets from total loss. We show that about 1 million people for the electricity only case, and about 1 billion people for the carbon mitigation case, can be provided with permanent space habitats and transportation from Earth in 30 years and can be funded by the space derived solar power satellite program. 1.2 Scope of this Chapter The goal of this chapter is to illustrate the power and importance of the O'Neill-Glaser concept in the context of human survival and maintaining a healthy planet Earth. We argue that at this point in human history our technological power is too dangerous to our selves and our home planet for us not to expand into space. We show by the models presented in the chapter that the imminent dangers of global warming and human self-extinction mandate that humanity move aggressively into the solar system in this generation. We show that the production of solar power satellites using space resources and with a work foe living in space provides a viable financial model to mitigate CO2 preventing the worst global warming scenarios, and safeguards humanity against self-extinction by providing hundreds of habitats and a billion people living in space within about 35 years. To accomplish this goal we need only consider the classic O'Neill-Glaser model which was parameterized for 1970's technological projections. Only habitat size optimization for the first ten years of production is added. This is a conservative approach since the innovations of the last 30 years will make the financial projections more favorable. However, the classic O'Neill-Glaser model represented a broad technological consensus. The model is well documented in the references and our calculations can be easily reproduced In this chapter the economics of the O Neill - Glaser model is compared with models that rely exclusively on Earth launched materials. Although many studies of Earth launched Solar Power Satellites have been made, we found that the NASA "Fresh Look Study" was the most comprehensive and well documented. It also provided one of the most optimistic Earth launch financial projections. We thus chose it for comparison purposes.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Defining and Reasoning about Model-based Safety Analysis: A Review

Model-based safety analysis (MBSA) has been around for over two decades. The benefits of MBSA have been well-documented in the literature, such as tackling complexity, introducing Formal Methods to eliminate the ambiguity in the traditional safety analysis, using automation to replace the error-prone manual safety modeling process, and ensuring consistency between the design model and the safety model. However, there is still a lack of consensus on what MBSA even is. This paper provides an approach towards developing such a consensus

model-based↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sampling the ENSO response to tropical volcanic eruptions in the GISS-E2-1 model: physical & biogeochemical ocean effects

Despite observational evidence that an El-Niño is likely to follow tropical volcanic eruptions (Predybaylo et al, 2017), modelling studies have so far reached no consensus on either the sign or physical mechanism of El Niño response to volcanism (Khodri et al, 2017) . A previous modelling study found that following the Pinatubo eruption, the tropical Pacific developed El Niño-like conditions that triggered a decrease in the upwelling of DIC and increased carbon uptake (Eddebbar et al., 2019). However, the carbon cycle response to volcanisms as it depends on ENSO phase remains unclear. Here we perform thirty ensemble control simulations using the GISS-E2-1-G model to sample the pre-industrial control ENSO cycle and thirty more to superimpose a Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption. We find that the model tends to favor the development of a weak El-Niño following the volcanic eruption only in the case of a volcano that erupts at the start of a neutral ENSO phase. In response to the weak El-Niño, some anomalies have the same sign as those that develop from a strong El-Niño, such as weaker winds, shallower mixed layer depths, less direct but more diffuse radiation at the surface of the ocean, less nitrate, and lower primary productivity. However, other anomalies show the opposite sign as those from a strong El-Niño, such as more precipitation, less surface DIC, and less surface ocean pCO 2 . In contrast to the neutral phase, the volcanic response during positive ENSO and negative ENSO phases are swamped by the model’s internal variability.

ENSO↗