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Coordinating Shared Activities

Shared Activity Coordination (ShAC) is a computer program for planning and scheduling the activities of an autonomous team of interacting spacecraft and exploratory robots. ShAC could also be adapted to such terrestrial uses as helping multiple factory managers work toward competing goals while sharing such common resources as floor space, raw materials, and transports. ShAC iteratively invokes the Continuous Activity Scheduling Planning Execution and Replanning (CASPER) program to replan and propagate changes to other planning programs in an effort to resolve conflicts. A domain-expert specifies which activities and parameters thereof are shared and reports the expected conditions and effects of these activities on the environment. By specifying these conditions and effects differently for each planning program, the domain-expert subprogram defines roles that each spacecraft plays in a coordinated activity. The domain-expert subprogram also specifies which planning program has scheduling control over each shared activity. ShAC enables sharing of information, consensus over the scheduling of collaborative activities, and distributed conflict resolution. As the other planning programs incorporate new goals and alter their schedules in the changing environment, ShAC continually coordinates to respond to unexpected events.

Clement, Bradley↗

A 2-to-48-MHz Phase-Locked Loop

A 2-to-48-MHz phase-locked loop (PLL), developed for the U.S. space program, meets or exceeds all space shuttle clock electrical interface requirements by taking as its reference a 2-to-48-MHz clock signal and outputting a phaselocked clock signal set at the same frequency as the reference clock with transistor- transistor logic (TTL) voltage levels. Because it is more adaptable than other PLLs, the new PLL can be used in industries that employ signaling devices and as a tool in future space missions. A conventional PLL consists of a phase/frequency detector, loop filter, and voltage-controlled oscillator in which each component exists individually and is integrated into a single device. PLL components phase-lock to a single frequency or to a narrow bandwidth of frequencies. It is this design, however, that prohibits them from maintaining phase lock to a dynamically changing reference clock when a large bandwidth is required a deficiency the new PLL overcomes. Since most PLL components require their voltage-controlled oscillators to operate at greater than 2-MHz frequencies, conventional PLLs often cannot achieve the low-frequency phase lock allowed by the new PLL. The 2-to-48-MHz PLL is built on a wire-wrap board with pins wired to three position jumpers; this makes changing configurations easy. It responds to variations in voltage-controlled oscillator (VCO) ranges, duty cycle, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), amplitude, and jitter, exceeding design specifications. A consensus state machine, implemented in a VCO range detector which assures the PLL continues to operate in the correct range, is the primary control state machine for the 2-to-48-MHz PLL circuit. By using seven overlapping frequency ranges with hysteresis, the PLL output sets the resulting phase-locked clock signal at a frequency that agrees with the reference clock with TTL voltage levels. As a space-shuttle tool, the new PLL circuit takes the noisy, degraded reference clock signals as input and outputs phase-locked clock signals of the same frequency but with a corrected wave shape. Since its configuration circuit can be easily changed, the new PLL can do the following: readily respond to variations in VCO ranges, duty cycle, SNR, amplitude, and jitter; continuously operate in the correct VCO range because of its consensus state machine; and use its range detector implements to overlap seven frequency ranges with hysteresis, thus giving the current design a flexibility that exceeds anything available at the time of this development. These features will benefit any industry in which safe and timely clock signals are vital to operation.

Koudelka, Robert D.↗

Leadership and Cultural Challenges in Operating the International Space Station

Operating the International Space Station (ISS) involves an indefinite, continuous series of long-duration international missions, and this requires an unprecedented degree of cooperation across multiple sites, organizations, and nations. ISS flight controllers have had to find ways to maintain effective team performance in this challenging new context. The goal of this study was to systematically identify and evaluate the major leadership and cultural challenges faces by ISS flight controllers, and to highlight the approaches that they have found most effective to surmount these challenges. We conducted a qualitative survey using a semi-structured interview. Subjects included 14 senior NASA flight controllers who were chosen on the basis of having had substantial experience working with international partners. Data were content analyzed using an iterative process with multiple coders and consensus meetings to resolve discrepancies. To further explore the meaning of the interview findings, we also conducted some new analyses of data from a previous questionnaire study of Russian and American ISS mission control personnel. The interview data showed that respondents had substantial consensus on several leadership and cultural challenges and on key strategies for dealing with them, and they offered a wide range of specific tactics for implementing these strategies. Surprisingly few respondents offered strategies for addressing the challenge of working with team members whose native language is not American English. The questionnaire data showed that Americans think it is more important than Russians that mission control personnel speak the same dialect of one shared common language. Although specific to the ISS program, our results are consistent with recent management, cultural, and aerospace research. We aim to use our results to improve training for current and future ISS flight controllers.

Clement, J. L.↗

NASA flight controllers - Meeting cultural and leadership challenges on the critical path to mission success

As part of its preparation for missions to the Moon and Mars, NASA has identified high priority critical path roadmap (CPR) questions, two of which focus on the performance of mission control personnel. NASA flight controllers have always worked in an incredibly demanding setting, but the International Space Station poses even more challenges than prior missions. We surveyed 14 senior ISS flight controllers and a contrasting sample of 12 more junior controllers about the management and cultural challenges they face and the most effective strategies for addressing them. There was substantial consensus among participants on some issues, such as the importance of building a personal relationship with Russian colleagues. Responses from junior and senior controllers differed in some areas, such as training. We frame the results in terms of two CPR questions. We aim to use our results to improve flight controller training.

Clement, James L., Jr.↗

Leadership Challenges in ISS Operations: Lessons Learned from Junior and Senior Mission Control Personnel

The International Space Station (ISS) is operated by a multi-national, multi-organizational team that is dispersed across multiple locations, time zones, and work schedules. At NASA, both junior and senior mission control personnel have had to find ways to address the leadership challenges inherent in such work, but neither have had systematic training in how to do so. The goals of this study were to examine the major leadership challenges faced by ISS mission control personnel and to highlight the approaches that they have found most effective to surmount them. We pay particular attention to the approaches successfully employed by the senior personnel and to the training needs identified by the junior personnel. We also evaluate the extent to which responses are consistent across the junior and senior samples. Further, we compare the issues identified by our interview survey to those identified by a standardized questionnaire survey of mission control personnel and a contrasting group of space station crewmembers. We studied a sample of 14 senior ISS flight controllers and a contrasting sample of 12 more junior ISS controllers. Data were collected using a semi-structured qualitative interview and content analyzed using an iterative process with multiple coders and consensus meetings to resolve discrepancies. To further explore the meaning of the interview findings, we also conducted new analyses of data from a previous questionnaire study of 13 American astronauts, 17 Russian cosmonauts, and 150 U.S. and 36 Russian mission control personnel supporting the ISS or Mir space stations. The interview data showed that the survey respondents had substantial consensus on several leadership challenges and on key strategies for dealing with them, and they offered a wide range of specific tactics for implementing these strategies. Interview data from the junior respondents will be presented for the first time at the meeting. The questionnaire data showed that the US mission control sample reported a level of support from their management that compared favorably to national norms. American mission control personnel and Russian crewmembers reported higher supervisor support than American crewmembers and Russian mission control personnel. We will present the specific issues underlying these findings and compare and contrast the results from the two datasets. Although specific to space station personnel, our results are consistent with recent management, cultural, and aerospace research. We aim to use our results to improve training for current and future mission control personnel.

Clement, James L.↗

Structural variant analysis of a cancer reference cell line sample using multiple sequencing technologies

The cancer genome is commonly altered with thousands of structural rearrangements including insertions, deletions, translocation, inversions, duplications, and copy number variations. Thus, structural variant (SV) characterization plays a paramount role in cancer target identification, oncology diagnostics, and personalized medicine. As part of the SEQC2 Consortium effort, the present study established and evaluated a consensus SV call set using a breast cancer reference cell line and matched normal control derived from the same donor, which were used in our companion benchmarking studies as reference samples. We systematically investigated somatic SVs in the reference cancer cell line by comparing to a matched normal cell line using multiple NGS platforms including Illumina short-read, 10X Genomics linked reads, PacBio long reads, Oxford Nanopore long reads, and high-throughput chromosome conformation capture (Hi-C). We established a consensus SV call set of a total of 1788 SVs including 717 deletions, 230 duplications, 551 insertions, 133 inversions, 146 translocations, and 11 breakends for the reference cancer cell line. To independently evaluate and cross-validate the accuracy of our consensus SV call set, we used orthogonal methods including PCR-based validation, Affymetrix arrays, Bionano optical mapping, and identification of fusion genes detected from RNA-seq. We evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of each NGS technology for SV determination, and our findings provide an actionable guide to improve cancer genome SV detection sensitivity and accuracy. A high-confidence consensus SV call set was established for the reference cancer cell line. A large subset of the variants identified was validated by multiple orthogonal methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental Quantification of Spin–Phonon Coupling in Molecular Qubits Using Inelastic Neutron Scattering

Electronic spin superposition states enable nanoscale sensing through their sensitivity to the local environment, yet their sensitivity to vibrational motion also limits their coherence times. In molecular spin systems, chemical tunability and atomicscale resolution are accompanied by a dense, thermally accessible phonon spectrum that introduces efficient spin relaxation pathways. Despite extensive theoretical work, there is little experimental consensus on which vibrational energies dominate spin relaxation or how molecular structure controls spin−phonon coupling (SPC). We present a fully experimental method to quantify SPC coefficients by combining temperature-dependent vibrational spectra from inelastic neutron scattering with spin relaxation rates measured by electron paramagnetic resonance. We apply this framework to two model S = 1/2 systems, copper(II) phthalocyanine (CuPc) and copper(II) octaethylporphyrin (CuOEP). Two distinct relaxation regimes emerge: below 40 K, weakly coupled lattice modes below 50 cm −1 dominate, whereas above 40 K, optical phonons above ∼185 cm −1 become thermally populated and drive relaxation with SPC coefficients nearly 3 orders of magnitude larger. Structural distortions in CuOEP that break planar symmetry soften the crystal lattice and enhance anharmonic scattering but also raise the energy of stretching modes at the molecular core where the spins reside. This redistributes vibrational energy toward the molecular periphery and out of plane, ultimately reducing SPC relative to CuPc and enabling room-temperature spin coherence in CuOEP. Although our method does not provide mode-specific SPC coefficients, it quantifies contributions from distinct spectral regions and establishes a broadly applicable, fully experimental link between crystal structure, lattice dynamics, and spin relaxation.

Lohaus, Stefan H. [California Institute of Technol↗

Why Do Oceanic Nonlinearities Contribute Only Weakly to Extreme El Niño Events?

Abstract Extreme El Niño events have outsized global impacts and control the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phases asymmetries. Yet, a consensus regarding the relative contributions of atmospheric and oceanic nonlinearities to their genesis remains elusive. Here, we isolate the contribution of oceanic nonlinearities by conducting paired experiments forced with opposite wind stress anomalies in an oceanic general circulation model, which realistically simulates extreme El Niño events and oceanic nonlinearities thought to contribute to ENSO skewness (Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs), Nonlinear Dynamical Heating (NDH)). Our findings indicate a weak contribution of oceanic nonlinearities to extreme El Niño events in the eastern Pacific, owing to compensatory effects between lateral (NDH and TIWs) and vertical processes. These results hold across different vertical mixing schemes and modifications of the upper‐ocean heat budget mixed layer criterion. Our study reinforces previous research underscoring the pivotal role of atmospheric nonlinearities in shaping extreme El Niño events.

Geology↗

Emerging Definition of Next-Generation of Aeronautical Communications

Aviation continues to experience rapid growth. In regions such as the United States and Europe air traffic congestion is constraining operations, leading to major new efforts to develop methodologies and infrastructures to enable continued aviation growth through transformational air traffic management systems. Such a transformation requires better communications linking airborne and ground-based elements. Technologies for next-generation communications, the required capacities, frequency spectrum of operation, network interconnectivity, and global interoperability are now receiving increased attention. A number of major planning and development efforts have taken place or are in process now to define the transformed airspace of the future. These activities include government and industry led efforts in the United States and Europe, and by international organizations. This paper will review the features, approaches, and activities of several representative planning and development efforts, and identify the emerging global consensus on requirements of next generation aeronautical communications systems for air traffic control.

Kerczewski, Robert J.↗

Evaluating Ensemble Predictions of South Asian Monsoon Low Pressure System Genesis

Abstract Synoptic-scale vortices known as monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) frequently produce intense precipitation and hydrological disasters in South Asia, so accurately forecasting LPS genesis is crucial for improving disaster preparedness and response. However, the accuracy of LPS genesis forecasts by numerical weather prediction models has remained unknown. Here, we evaluate the performance of two global ensemble models—the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Ensemble Prediction System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)—in predicting LPS genesis during the years 2021–22. The GEFS successfully predicted about half the observed LPS genesis events 1–2 days in advance; the ECMWF model captured an additional 10% of observed genesis events. Both models had a false alarm ratio (FAR) of around 50% for 1–2-day lead times. In both ensembles, the control run typically exhibited a higher probability of detection (POD) of observed events and a lower FAR compared to the perturbed ensemble members. However, a consensus forecast, in which genesis is predicted when at least 20% of ensemble members forecast LPS formation, had POD values surpassing those of the control run for all lead times. Moreover, probabilistic predictions of genesis over the Bay of Bengal, where most LPSs form, were skillful, with the fraction of ensemble members predicting LPS formation over a 5-day lead time approximating the observed frequency of genesis, without any adjustment or bias correction.

Suhas, D. L.↗

Environmental controls on the light use efficiency of terrestrial gross primary production

Abstract Gross primary production (GPP) by terrestrial ecosystems is a key quantity in the global carbon cycle. The instantaneous controls of leaf‐level photosynthesis are well established, but there is still no consensus on the mechanisms by which canopy‐level GPP depends on spatial and temporal variation in the environment. The standard model of photosynthesis provides a robust mechanistic representation for C 3 species; however, additional assumptions are required to “scale up” from leaf to canopy. As a consequence, competing models make inconsistent predictions about how GPP will respond to continuing environmental change. This problem is addressed here by means of an empirical analysis of the light use efficiency (LUE) of GPP inferred from eddy covariance carbon dioxide flux measurements, in situ measurements of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and remotely sensed estimates of the fraction of PAR (fAPAR) absorbed by the vegetation canopy. Focusing on LUE allows potential drivers of GPP to be separated from its overriding dependence on light. GPP data from over 100 sites, collated over 20 years and located in a range of biomes and climate zones, were extracted from the FLUXNET2015 database and combined with remotely sensed fAPAR data to estimate daily LUE. Daytime air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, diffuse fraction of solar radiation, and soil moisture were shown to be salient predictors of LUE in a generalized linear mixed‐effects model. The same model design was fitted to site‐based LUE estimates generated by 16 terrestrial ecosystem models. The published models showed wide variation in the shape, the strength, and even the sign of the environmental effects on modeled LUE. These findings highlight important model deficiencies and suggest a need to progress beyond simple “goodness of fit” comparisons of inferred and predicted carbon fluxes toward an approach focused on the functional responses of the underlying dependencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloning the promoter for transforming growth factor-beta type III receptor. Basal and conditional expression in fetal rat osteoblasts

Transforming growth factor-beta binds to three high affinity cell surface molecules that directly or indirectly regulate its biological effects. The type III receptor (TRIII) is a proteoglycan that lacks significant intracellular signaling or enzymatic motifs but may facilitate transforming growth factor-beta binding to other receptors, stabilize multimeric receptor complexes, or segregate growth factor from activating receptors. Because various agents or events that regulate osteoblast function rapidly modulate TRIII expression, we cloned the 5' region of the rat TRIII gene to assess possible control elements. DNA fragments from this region directed high reporter gene expression in osteoblasts. Sequencing showed no consensus TATA or CCAAT boxes, whereas several nuclear factors binding sequences within the 3' region of the promoter co-mapped with multiple transcription initiation sites, DNase I footprints, gel mobility shift analysis, or loss of activity by deletion or mutation. An upstream enhancer was evident 5' proximal to nucleotide -979, and a silencer region occurred between nucleotides -2014 and -2194. Glucocorticoid sensitivity mapped between nucleotides -687 and -253, whereas bone morphogenetic protein 2 sensitivity co-mapped within the silencer region. Thus, the TRIII promoter contains cooperative basal elements and dispersed growth factor- and hormone-sensitive regulatory regions that can control TRIII expression by osteoblasts.

Non-NASA Center↗

High Frequency Monitoring and Nitrate Sourcing Reveals Baseflow and Stormflow Controls on Total Dissolved Nitrogen and Carbon Export Along a Rural‐Urban Gradient

Abstract Efforts to reduce nitrogen and carbon loading from developed watersheds typically target specific flows or sources, but across gradients in development intensity there is no consensus on the contribution of different flows to total loading or sources of nitrogen export. This information is vital to optimize management strategies leveraging source reductions, stormwater controls, and restorations. We investigate how solute loading and sources vary across flows and land‐use using high frequency monitoring and stable nitrate isotope analysis from five catchments with different sanitary infrastructure, along a gradient in development intensity. High frequency monitoring allowed estimation of annual loading and attribution to storm versus baseflows. Nitrate loads were 16 kg/km 2 /yr. from the forested catchment and ranged from 68 to 119 kg/km 2 /yr., across developed catchments, highest for the septic served site. Across developed catchments, baseflow contributions ranged from 40% of N loading to 75% from the septic served catchment, and the contribution from high stormflows increased with development intensity. Stormflows mobilized and mixed many surface and subsurface nitrate sources while baseflow nitrate was dominated by fewer sources which varied by catchment (soil, wastewater, or fertilizer). To help inform future sampling designs, we demonstrate that grab sampling and targeted storm sampling would likely fail to accurately predict annual loadings within the study period. The dominant baseflow loads and subsurface stormflows are not treated by surface water management practices primarily targeted to surface stormflows. Using a balance of green and gray infrastructure and stream/riparian restoration may target specific flow paths and improve management.

Delesantro, Joseph M.↗

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Pilot Demonstration of an Attestation and Anomaly Detection Framework using Distributed Ledger Technology for Power Grid Infrastructure

This report summarizes the design and pilot demonstration of a framework called Grid Guard that was created to provide increased data and device trustworthiness to electric grid devices by leveraging distributed ledger technology (DLT), specifically blockchain. Grid Guard contains a combination of core cryptographic methods such as the secure hash algorithm (SHA), and asymmetric cryptography, private permissioned blockchain, baselining configuration data, consensus algorithm (Raft) and the Hyperledger Fabric (HLF) framework. The system implements a low energy, fast, and robust enhancement to system trustworthiness within and across electric grid systems such as substations, control centers and metering infrastructures. Blockchain is a distributed database structured that provides a practically unalterable (immutable) timeline of stored transactions. By relying on hashing and the Raft consensus algorithm, if an entity tries to illegitimately alter a record at one instance of the database the other ledger nodes are not altered. They work to cross-reference each other and easily locate any incorrectly added data and remove it. The bulk raw data is stored in an off-chain storage (outside of the blockchain ledger) and a hash of this baseline data is stored in the Blockchain ledger via hashing windows of time-series and configuration data, after aggregation and filtering. The bulk off-chain data repository is then considered to be trust-anchored using the hashes stored in the blockchain. To secure the electric grid testbed devices and data, device configuration baselines were compared to those baselines that had been previously stored in the ledger. Statistical baselines for device configurations, network communication patterns, and high-speed sensor data are calculated and then stored off-chain and hashes stored in the ledger. Measurements such as three-phase voltage and current, frequency, breaker status, protection scheme settings, network configuration settings (and other device configuration artifacts) and network traffic features (packet interarrival times) are compared every minute or other selected time windows. During phase 1 of the Grid Guard DLT project different DLT technologies were studies, and an assessment was performed on DLT technology vulnerabilities, uses, and key characteristics. DLT consensus protocols were studies (e.g., RAFT, named after Reliable, Replicated, Redundant, And Fault-Tolerant). Also, cryptography, public, private and permissioned or permissionless systems were assessed. Grid Guard implements a permissioned private DLT. Consensus algorithm selection and choice of DLT implementation depended heavily on the use-case. For this use-case, parameters were selected to measure performance and existing tools for assessment. Benchmarking was performed theoretically and practically. During phase 2 hashed transactions/blocks were inserted into the ledger every second. During phase 2 of the Grid Guard DLT project, a prototype framework was developed and demonstrated for attestation of critical substation devices and data using precision timing systems that use PTP and IRIG-B protocols) on a testbed of operational devices that emulated a distribution substation, control center, and power metering infrastructure using real Operational Technology (OT). The testbed includes OT devices such as protective relays, human machine interfaces (HMI), and power meters. To determine when to collect and compare system and network baselines, an initial examination of an anomaly detection capability to identify malicious manipulation of data streams was conducted. The resulting anomaly detection was demonstrated in a set of experiments and leveraged to trigger device artifact attestation checks. Attestation checks occur against device configuration baselines when compared with the immutable blockchain-stored baselines, which provided a cryptographically supported means by which to store baselines. The electrical substation-grid testbed was created to test the Grid Guard framework. The testbed emulates the operations of a portion of a power grid and SCADA systems as closely as possible. The testbed integrates real protocols, mainly IEC 61850 standard protocols, such as the Sampled Value (SV) and the GOOSE protocols. The testbed also supports DNP3 and other layer 2 and layer 3 protocols such as Telnet, SSH, SFTP/FTP and other proprietary protocols needed to connect to industrial control system equipment. The testbed emulates real power conditions using the OpalRT hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) device which can create fault situations that cannot be easily tested on real systems. The electrical substation-grid testbed was created using real measurement, communication, and protection devices that electrical utilities commonly use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Effects of stoichiometry and epitaxial strain on the stabilization of infinite-layer nickelates

The discovery of superconductivity in infinite-layer nickelates has sparked great interest due to their potential analogy with the unconventional cuprate superconductors. However, investigations of this system have been limited by the challenges in materials control and synthesis driven by substantial thermodynamic instability, making it difficult to reach an experimental consensus. Hence, establishing a robust synthetic route to highly crystalline infinite-layer nickelates is of paramount importance. Here, we present and discuss recent progress on the reproducible two-step synthesis of (Nd,Sr)NiO2 via the stabilization of high-quality perovskite nickelates and the subsequent topotactic transition to the infinite-layer phase. In particular, we discuss the important factors, such as cation stoichiometry and epitaxial strain, which significantly impact the crystallinity of both phases, accompanied by careful structural characterization. These results on robust synthesis can help accelerate the experimental investigation of the intrinsic physical properties of these complex strongly correlated materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify if the software is reliable (or unreliable) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify software reliability (or unreliability) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Voluntary Consensus Organization Standards for Nondestructive Evaluation of Thin-Walled Metallic Liners and Composite Overwraps in Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

NASA fracture control requirements outlined in NASA-STD-5009 and NASA-STD-5014 are predicated on the availability and use of sensitive nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods that can detect and monitor defects, thereby providing data that can be used to predict failure or reduce the risk of failure in fracture critical components. However, in the case of composite materials and components, including composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs), the effect of defects is poorly understood, the NDE methods used to evaluate locate and size defects are typically at lower technical readiness level than analogous NDE methods used for metals, and demonstration studies to verify the probability of detection (POD) are generally lacking or unavailable. These factors together make failure prediction of fracture critical composite materials and components based on size, quantity, or orientation of defects nearly impossible. Also, when inspecting metal liners in as-manufactured COPVs, sensitivity is lost and only the inner surface of the liner is accessible. Also, NDE of COPVs as applied during manufacturing varies significantly from manufacturer to manufacturer and has not yet been standardized. Although requirements exist to perform NDE immediately after manufacturing to establish initial integrity of the parts, procedural detail for NDE of composites is still nonexistent or under development. For example, in practice, only a visual inspection of COPVs is performed during manufacturing and service, leaving in question whether defects of concern, for example, bridging, overwrap winding anomalies, impact damage below visible threshold, out-of-family strain growth, and liner buckling have been adequately detected and monitored. To address these shortcomings, in 2005 the NASA Nondestructive Evaluation Working Group (NNWG) began funding work to develop and adopt standards for nondestructive evaluation of aerospace composites in collaboration with the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Committee E07 on Nondestructive Testing. Similarly, in 2006 the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) recommended that nondestructive evaluation methods that can predict composite failure in COPVs should be developed and verified, and integrated into the damage control plan for these vessels

Waller, Jess↗