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RISKS TO THE TRANSPORT OF RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS IN CONFLICT ZONES
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Nuclear decisionmaking, complexity and emerging and disruptive technologies: A comprehensive assessment
The complex interactions of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) could significantly impact nuclear decision-making, particular in an escalating regional conventional conflict. Such conflicts may present governments with a range of nuclear decisions: whether to introduce a nuclear dimension to a crisis, whether to cross the nuclear threshold through limited nuclear use, how to respond to a limited nuclear attack, whether to expand the scope and intensity of initial limited attacks, and whether to escalate to an all-out nuclear war. At each decision point, EDTs create potential risks as well as rewards. EDTs are likely to influence the context for nuclear decision-making and the choices between different courses of action. EDTs could impact the context of nuclear decision-making by improving or degrading situational assessment, the ability to deliberate, and the ability to manage one’s nuclear forces. EDTs could influence the choice between nuclear restraint or escalation by affecting the perceived strategic benefits, escalatory risks, and operational requirements associated with different courses of action. Even though particular combinations of EDTs could precipitate nuclear use in some scenarios, they could encourage restraint in others. The impact and relevance of the same combinations of EDTs might be different at various nuclear decision points. The availability of specific combinations of EDTs at different stages of a conflict would also vary because of the attrition and one-time-use nature of some capabilities. In later stages of a conflict, the decision maker’s confidence in different combinations of EDTs would depend on their previous experience in using them. While the interactions of EDTs are likely to bring additional complexity to a nuclear decision-making process, EDTs are also not the only source of complexity. Broader strategic, military, operational, legal, moral, and emotional factors are also likely to play an important role. These factors may dominate decision-making in a range of potential cases.
The effect of simultaneous exposure on the attention selection and integration of segments and lexical tones by Urdu-Cantonese bilingual speakers
In the perceptual learning of lexical tones, an automatic and robust attention-to-phonology system enables native tonal listeners to adapt to acoustically non-optimal speech, such as phonetic conflicts in daily communications. Previous tone research reveals that non-native listeners who do not linguistically employ lexical tones in their mother tongue may find it challenging to attend to the tonal dimension or integrate it with the segmental features. However, it is unknown whether the attentional interference initially caused by a maternal attentional system would continue influencing the non-optimal tone perception for simultaneous bilingual teenagers. From an endpoint in the age of language acquisition, we investigate whether the tone-specific attention mechanism developed by the Urdu-Cantonese simultaneous bilinguals is automatic enough to assist them in adapting to a phonetically-conflicting environment. Three groups of teenagers engaged in a four-condition ABX task: Urdu-Cantonese simultaneous bilinguals, Cantonese native listeners, and Urdu-speaking, late learners of Cantonese. The results showed that although the simultaneous bilinguals could phonologically process Cantonese tones in a Cantonese-like way under a conflict-free listening condition, they still failed in adapting to the phonetic conflicts, especially the segment-induced ones. It thus demonstrated that the simultaneous exposure and years of regular education in Hong Kong local schools still could not automatically guarantee simultaneous bilingual processing of Cantonese tones. In interpreting the findings, it hypothesized that, except for simultaneous exposure, the development of a tone-specific attention mechanism is also likely to be L1-inhibitory, tone experience-driven, and language-specific for simultaneous bilinguals.
Connecting Nuclear Security to International Frameworks on Gender and Security
The international community is slowly beginning to recognize the intersections between the law and policy on international security – particularly arms control, non-proliferation, and disarmament – and the body of human rights law that addresses gender equality. Notably absent from this discussion is the field of nuclear security. Despite its historical underpinnings as an inherently domestic activity, nuclear security is thoroughly grounded in international treaty law. Yet, nuclear security is often overlooked in the international security context and has not been well situated with international instruments that address gender equality. We argue that gender equality in nuclear security should be understood as an important component of broader efforts to achieve equal opportunities for women in work and critical to ensuring women are included in conflict prevention efforts. Linking nuclear security to broader international efforts to increase gender equality in security and conflict prevention will provide a clearer structure and framework for gender equality initiatives in the nuclear security field. This is critically important given that estimates indicate that women comprise only twenty percent of the nuclear security workforce. Moreover, situating nuclear security in a broader international legal framework will simultaneously help states meet their gender equality commitments emanating from other instruments. This paper will first analyze the relationship between nuclear security and broader international security efforts, in particular arms control treaties and non-proliferation regimes. It will then survey the relevant international and regional frameworks for gender equality, particularly those that have applicability in the security context. This paper will next explore the relationship between nuclear security and these frameworks on gender. We find that some instruments provide support for gender equality initiatives in nuclear security because of their mandate to states to provide structural gender equality, and others are particularly relevant where they call for women's participation in conflict prevention. This paper concludes with recommendations to states that are concerned about the underrepresentation of women in nuclear security.
Impact of cyberattacks on safety and stability of connected and automated vehicle platoons under lane changes
Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) offer a huge potential to improve the operations and safety of transportation systems. However, the use of smart devices and communications in CAVs introduce new risks. CAVs would leverage vehicle to vehicle (V2V) and vehicle to infrastructure (V2I) communication, thus providing additional system access points compared to traditional systems. Automation makes these systems more vulnerable and increases the consequences of cyberattacks. This study utilizes an infrastructure-based communication platform consisting of cooperative adaptive cruise control and lane control advisories developed by the authors to perform cyber risk assessment of CAVs. The study emulates three types of cyberattacks (message falsification, dedicated denial of service, and spoofing attacks) in a representative traffic environment consisting of multiple CAV platoons and lane change events to analyze the safety and stability impacts of the cyberattacks. Simulation experiments using VISSIM reveals that traffic stream and CAV string is unstable under all three types of cyberattacks. The worst case is represented by the message falsification attack. Increases in volatility are observed over a no attack case, with variations increasing by an average of 43%–51% along with an increase of over 3000 crash conflicts. Similarly, lane change crash conflicts are observed to be more severe compared to rear end crash conflicts, showing a higher probability of severe injuries. Further, the case of slight cyberattack on a single CAV also creates significant disruption in the traffic stream. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) reveals the statistical significance of the results. Furthermore, these results pave the way for future design of secure systems from a monitoring perspective.
Wave energy in season: a comparative approach to feasibility of seasonal deployments for remote coastal communities
Remote coastal communities, which could be early adopters of wave energy projects, have concerns over costs, conflicts, and potential risks of development. Designers and developers are challenged to address these community concerns as they continue to develop wave energy technologies. One potential means of reducing costs, conflicts, and risks, especially for demonstration and pilot-scale projects, could be planning a deployment that operates for only a portion of the year—a seasonal deployment. Here, in this paper, we examine the impacts of a seasonal deployment in terms of cost, electricity production, operations and maintenance, environmental impacts, and community benefits. We take a holistic, comparative approach to feasibility that can be replicated for other comparative studies. We estimate electricity production using a point absorber WEC modeled near Sitka, AK, USA and optimized for the given sea conditions. We determine that, for remote community sized projects, seasonal deployments could result in small cost savings (less than 10 %), but larger decreases in annual energy production (around 30 % for our case study area). Seasonal deployments could be preferable in places with seasonal energy needs, if failures and device access become a major hindrance to wave energy technology development, or as a cautionary approach to introducing new technology to the oceans. We also determine that a highly seasonal wave resource is not necessarily a requirement for seasonal deployments to be considered. Seasonal deployments are an alternative to year-round deployments that can be considered in places where marine spatial conflict is a seasonal concern.
Antibacterial ADP-ribosyl cyclase toxins inhibit bacterial growth by rapidly depleting NAD(P) +
In metazoans, enzymes belonging to the bifunctional ADP-ribosyl cyclase/cyclic ADP-ribose (cADPr) hydrolase family regulate diverse cellular processes by synthesizing and hydrolyzing the intracellular second messenger cADPr, derived from the electron carrier NAD+. However, bacterial enzymes belonging to this family have not been characterized. Here, we identify a bacterial ADP-ribosyl cyclase that is associated with the type VII secretion system and functions as an antibacterial toxin. This enzyme, which we name Tac1, inhibits bacterial growth by rapidly hydrolyzing NAD+ and NADP+. We determine the X-ray crystal structure of Tac1 to a resolution of 1.4 Å, which reveals that this protein adopts the core catalytic fold of metazoan ADP-ribosyl cyclase enzymes such as CD38. Using a combination of biochemical and mutagenesis approaches, we identify catalytic residues within the active site of Tac1, which are responsible for the formation of a cADPr catalytic intermediate and subsequent hydrolysis of this intermediate into linear ADP-ribose. A bioinformatic analysis reveals that Tac1 is the founding member of a widespread family of bacterial ADP-ribosyl cyclase enzymes, many of which are associated with interbacterial conflict systems. We also identify enzymes in this family that are not associated with biological conflict systems and demonstrate that they produce cADPr as their major product rather than linear ADP-ribose, suggesting that these enzymes serve a biological function distinct from interbacterial antagonism. Together, these findings demonstrate that ADP-ribosyl cyclase/cADPr hydrolase enzymes function as toxins in diverse bacterial conflict systems and suggest that cADPr may play a previously overlooked role in bacterial physiology.
Finding middle ground: Flow regimes designed for salmon and energy value
In regulated rivers, shaping seasonal flows to recover species at risk depends on understanding when to expect conflicts with competing water users and when their interests are aligned. Multi-objective optimization can be used to reveal such conflicts and commonalities. When species are involved, multi-objective optimization is challenged by the need to simulate complex species responses to flow regimes. Previously, we addressed that challenge by developing a simplified salmon model (Quantus) that defines cohorts of salmon by the river section and time in which they were spawned. Salmon in these space-time cohorts are tracked from the time redds (nests) are constructed until the cohort exits the tributary en route to the ocean. In this study, we modeled seasonal patterns in energy value and developed a Pareto-optimal frontier of seasonal flow patterns to maximize in-river salmon survival and hydropower value. Candidate flow regimes were characterized by two pulse flows varying in magnitude, timing, and duration and constrained by a total annual flow near the historical median. Our analysis revealed times when economic and salmon objectives were aligned and times when they differed. Pulse flows that favored higher energy value were timed to meet demand during extreme temperatures. Both salmon and hydropower objectives produced optimal flow regimes with pulse flows in early summer, but only solutions favoring hydropower value included high flows in mid-winter. Solutions favoring higher age-0 salmon survival provided an extended pulse flow in late winter/early spring, which suggests that access to productive floodplain habitat allowed faster growth and earlier out-migration and reduced the need for higher temperature-moderating flows later in spring. Minimum flows were also higher among solutions favoring salmon over energy. The tools used to produce these results can help to design simplified seasonal flow regimes by revealing compromise solutions that satisfy both fish and energy producers and highlighting when potential conflicts are likely.
Game Theoretic Orchestration for Cooperation among Power Distribution System Applications
The evolving transformation with the proliferation of distributed energy resources and advanced metering, necessitates advanced distribution systems to integrate and orchestrate a large number of grid-edge devices while also serving multiple system-level objectives such as resilience, decarbonization, equity and other system mandates. The parallel deployment and control of resources towards achieving diverse objectives may lead to conflicts between applications that want to control overlapping sets of device setpoints, potentially leading to oscillatory behavior and suboptimal performance. This work aims at leveraging game theoretic framework to drive cooperative behavior among competitive applications. The work proposes a weighted-consensus based game design to facilitate conflict resolution through consensus-building iterations for modular platform. Simulation-based evaluation on a sample test system demonstrates the performance the proposed deconfliction strategy in resolving operational conflicts and achieving close-to-optimal trade off among the applications. Results also compare the proposed strategy with a distribution optimization approach and illustrate it effectiveness in diverse apps regardless of their design while also incentivizing apps with flexible design.
The vecro hypothesis
We consider three fundamental issues in quantum gravity: (a) the black hole information paradox (b) the unboundedness of entropy that can be stored inside a black hole horizon (c) the relation between the black hole horizon and the cosmological horizon. With help from the small corrections theorem, we convert each of these issues into a sharp conflict. We then argue that all three conflicts can be resolved by the following hypothesis: the vacuum wave functional of quantum gravity contains a “vecro” component made of virtual fluctuations of configurations of the same type that arise in the fuzzball structure of black hole microstates. Further, if we assume that causality holds to leading order in gently curved spacetime, then we must have such a vecro component in order to resolve the above conflicts. The term vecro stands for “Virtual Extended Compression-Resistant Object”, and characterizes the nature of the vacuum fluctuations that resolve the puzzles. It is interesting that puzzle (c) may relate the role of quantum gravity in black holes to observations in the sky.
Catabolism and interactions of uncultured organisms shaped by eco-thermodynamics in methanogenic bioprocesses
We currently understand the carbon cycle in methanogenic environments as trophic interactions revolving around interspecies H 2 transfer between organotrophs and methanogens. However, many H 2 -generating processes are thermodynamically sensitive to H 2 accumulation and can be inhibited by high H 2 concentrations produced by other metabolisms. To uncover how anaerobes combat this H 2 conflict in situ, we employ metagenomics and metatranscriptomics to revisit a model ecosystem that has inspired many foundational discoveries in anaerobic ecology – methanogenic bioreactors. Through analysis of 15 anaerobic digesters, we recover 1343 high-quality metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) and corresponding gene expression profiles for diverse uncultured lineages spanning 66 phyla and reconstruct their individual metabolic capacities. We discover that diverse uncultured organotrophic populations can drive H 2 -sensitive degradation through (i) metabolic coupling with concurrent H 2 -tolerant catabolism, (ii) unprecedented shifts from H 2 generation to CO 2 -reducing formate transfer and cytochrome/pili-mediated direct interspecies electron transfer for avoiding thermodynamic conflict, and (iii) integration of low-concentration O 2 as an ancillary thermodynamics-enhancing electron sink. Archaeal populations in situ support the above processes through novel metabolisms distinct from conventional methanogenesis – high-affinity H 2 oxidation driven by methyl-reducing methanogenesis and concomitant uptake of formate, electrons, and acetate from HS metabolism by Methanothrix. In total, synthesis of omics analyses and eco-thermodynamics reveals overlooked metabolic behavior and interactions of uncultured organisms that address a central issue in methanogenic carbon cycling, thermodynamic conflict among diverse concurrent metabolic processes.
Evaluation of Programming Language-Aware Diffs for Improving Developer Productivity
As the number of supported platforms for SNL software increases, so do the testing requirements. This increases the total time spent between when a developer submits code for testing, and when tests are completed. This in turn leads developers to hold off submitting code for testing, meaning that when code is ready for testing there's a lot more of it. This increases the likelihood of merge conflicts which the developer must resolve by hand -- because someone else touched the files near the lines the developer touched. Current text-based diff tools often have trouble resolving conflicts in these cases. Work in Europe and Japan has demonstrated that, using programming language aware diff tools (e.g., using the abstract syntax tree (AST) a compiler might generate) can reduce the manual labor necessary to resolve merge conflicts. These techniques can detect code blocks which have moved, as opposed than current text-based diff tools, which only detect insertions / deletions of text blocks. In this study, we evaluate one such tool, GumTree, and see how effective it is as a replacement for traditional text-based diff approaches.
Ombuds Office 2023 Biennial Report
The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Ombuds Charter requires the Ombuds Office to issue a report every two years to the Laboratory Director. The prior Ombuds Biennial Report was published in July of 2021, celebrating 25 years of Ombuds history at the Lab. This 2023 report details office transitions and new initiatives over the past two years, along with our ongoing conflict resolution work of one-on-one discussions, classes, presentations, workshops, and facilitations. The Ombuds Office supports the mission of LANL in myriad ways. We champion the LANL culture statement of “ How we do work is as important as What we do,” and we reinforce LANL’s values of integrity, service, excellence, and teamwork. Accordingly, the mission of the Ombuds Office is to support employees in their work, enhance communication, mitigate conflict, and encourage a positive working environment. The Ombuds Office adheres to the International Ombuds Association’s (IOA) Standards of Practice and Code of Ethics (see Appendix). As such, the Ombuds Office is informal, confidential, impartial, and independent. We do not advocate for managers or employees. We don’t tell people what to do; we don’t give advice. All of our services are voluntary. LANL employees seek out the Ombuds Office as a neutral place where they can collect their thoughts, whether in person, on the phone, or online. We help individuals explore and navigate tough issues. Employees expand their understanding of their options, assess what is within their control, and decide what is in their best interest. The Ombuds Office promotes smart, professional conflict management. This report highlights the work of the Ombuds Office and provides a closer look at both quantitative and qualitative data, including anecdotal information and endorsements. It concludes with a discussion of further opportunities to expand the reach of the Ombuds Office to more LANL employees.
Exploring Multilayer Network Models to Build a Scientific Basis for Integrated Deterrence: Final Report
The emerging multipolar international security environment represents a fundamental restructuring of global nuclear balance of power to include two nuclear peer competitors, growing non-peer nuclear threats, and concerns of nuclear latency from both allies and adversaries. Conflicts in the grey zone, cyber operations, mis- and disinformation campaigns, and emerging disruptive technologies like drones, and hypersonic missiles are becoming more prevalent. These present a risk of cross-domain and multi-domain conflicts that may not follow known escalatory patterns. In order to prepare for the new deterrence environment, it is critical to have quantitative and qualitative understandings of these cross-domain conflicts, their potential for escalation, and which systems they may impact. To that end, our team created a Multi-Layer Network (MLN) model of ‘integrated deterrence’ where instruments of national power are modeled as individual network graph layers that include efforts from all domains. We then evaluate the potential for escalation against escalation scenarios. Analysis of the escalation scenarios is then used to identify insights of potential risk and escalation within integrated deterrence.
Estimating IDP Origins Using ACLED Political Violence Events: Validation with Lebanon IDP Flow Data
A key input in modeling population distribution and flows following conflict events is the inclusion of Internally Displaced Person (IDP) flows between administrative units within a country. These flows are critical for capturing population movement and redistribution driven by current events, particularly conflict. In some cases, IDP destination data are available while origin data is incomplete or unavailable. This creates a gap in understanding where displacement is occurring, limiting the ability to model population redistribution accurately. Without origin data, it is not possible to reallocate population flows or accurately represent where displacement is occurring within the country. This report evaluates whether Armed Conflict Location Event Data (ACLED) political violence event data can be used to estimate IDP origin distributions when direct origin data are unavailable. The approach is validated using historical IDP flow data from Lebanon, where both origins and destinations are observed. Results show that ACLED event distributions strongly correspond to observed IDP-origin patterns, particularly when using cumulative 60-day event windows. The method is most reliable for identifying major origin districts and approximating proportional origin shares. However, it is not intended to reconstruct exact individual displacement flows, but rather to provide a probabilistic spatial allocation of displacement origins.
Coexistence Praxis: The Role of Resource Managers in Wolf-Livestock Interactions on Federal Lands
In resource management, new terms are frequently introduced, reflecting ongoing evolution in the theory and practice of ecology and governance. Yet understandings of what new concepts mean, for whom, and what they imply for management on the ground can vary widely. Coexistence—a prominent concept within the literature and practices around human-wildlife conflict and predator management—is one such term: widely invoked and yet poorly defined. While for some coexistence is the latest paradigm in improving human-wildlife relations, the concept remains debated and indeed even hotly contested by others—particularly on the multiple-use public lands of the American West, where gray wolf conservation, livestock production, and the claims of diverse stakeholders share space. The multiple meanings of coexistence present serious challenges for conservation practice, as what the concept implies or requires can be contested by those most central to its implementation. In this study we examine wolf-livestock management—a classic case of human-wildlife conflict—by focusing on the experiences and perspectives of U.S. Forest Service (USFS) managers. We reviewed coexistence's multivalence in the literature, complementing semi-structured interviews conducted with USFS employees on case study forests from across the western states. Through this, we highlight the complexity and multi-dimensionality of the concept, and the unique yet under-explored perspective that resource managers bring to these debates. This work draws on insights from political ecology to emphasize the situatedness of manager practice—taking place within a broader set of relations and contextual pressures—while extending political ecologists' traditional focus on the resource user to a concern with the resource manager as a key actor in environmental conflicts. Through our engagement with the experiences and perceptions of USFS managers, who must balance conservation aims with long-established land uses like livestock grazing, we hope to clarify the various dimensions of coexistence. Our hope is that this work thus increases the possibility for empathy and collaboration among managers and stakeholders engaged in this complex socio-ecological challenge.
Experimental Wargaming with SIGNAL
Wargames are a common tool for investigating complex conflict scenarios and have a long history of informing military and strategic study. Historically, these games have often been one-offs, may not rigorously collect data, and have been built primarily for exploration rather than developing data-driven analytical conclusions. Experimental wargaming, a new wargaming approach that employs the basic principles of experimental design to facilitate an objective basis for exploring fundamental research questions around human behavior (such as understanding conflict escalation), is a potential tool that can be used in combination with existing wargaming approaches. The Project on Nuclear Gaming, a consortium involving the University of California, Berkeley, Sandia National Laboratories, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, developed an experimental wargame, SIGNAL, to explore questions surrounding conflict escalation and strategic stability in the nuclear context. To date, the SIGNAL experimental wargame has been played hundreds of times by thousands of players from around the world, creating the largest database of wargame data for academic purposes known to the authors. Here, this paper discusses the design of SIGNAL, focusing on how the principles of experimental design influenced this design.