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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting the Likelihood of Human-Elephant Conflict and Assessing Patterns in Elephant Movements Over Varying Habitat Conditions in the Kavango-Zambezi Area

In the Kavango-Zambezi area of southern Africa, three million people live within areas frequently traveled by free-ranging elephants. As the region continues to develop rapidly, urban and agricultural settlements further encroach upon the land that these elephants use. As elephants come into more frequent contact with urban and agricultural areas, human populations face financial loss through crop damage and the potential for injury from direct conflict with elephants. Elephant populations are also at risk of injuries from conflict as well as illness related to the consumption of waste. In order to implement human-elephant conflict mitigation strategies, local conservation groups need to be informed on best practices for coexistence. This project aided The Ecoexist Project and Connected Conservation in understanding the ecological factors that drive elephant movement into human settlements and provided Earth observation data to support conflict management in the future. The team used Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data to create land use land cover maps and calculate vegetation indices, and used TerraClimate data to analyze drought conditions. These classified maps allowed us to display a time series of human settlement from 1990 to the present and were made explorable alongside other environmental variables in an updated Google Earth Engine (GEE) tool. This project also provided heat maps that show the risk of human-elephant conflict based on historical data of HEC locations. This analysis will provide support for conservation experts in determining best practices for future mitigation and prevention of human-elephant conflict.

Ariel Calle↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Explaining Soft-Goal Conflicts through Constraint Relaxations

Recent work suggests to explain trade-offs between soft goals in terms of their conflicts, i. e., minimal unsolvable soft-goal subsets. But this does not explain the conflicts themselves: Why can a given set of soft-goals not be jointly achieved? Here we approach that question in terms of the underlying constraints on plans in the task at hand, namely resource availability and time windows. In this context, a natural form of explanation for a soft-goal conflict is a minimal constraint relaxation under which the conflict disappears (“if the deadline was 1 hour later, it would work”). We explore algorithms for computing such explanations. A baseline is to simply loop over all relaxed tasks and compute the conflicts for each separately. We improve over this by two algorithms that leverage information – conflicts, reachable states – across relaxed tasks. We show that these algorithms can exponentially outperform the baseline in theory, and we run experiments confirming that advantage in practice.

Planning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Integration of a Conflict Probabilities Service for Upper Class E Traffic Management

This paper outlines the development and integration of a conflict probability calculation-based service designed for Upper Class E Airspace operations. A key aspect of this effort is the integration of the conflict probability calculation algorithm into a simulated situational awareness client application. This application serves as a tool for flight operators to submit operations for Upper Class E Airspace within a simulated environment. The focus is on validating the effectiveness of the service through simulated intentional conflicting scenarios. The paper delves into the practicalities of integrating the conflict probability service into the user interface of the simulated situational awareness client application. This integration aims to enhance the decision-making capabilities of ETM operators within the simulated environment. The experiments and observations conducted in this simulated facility provide insights into the operational effectiveness of the proposed approach. In conclusion, this paper emphasizes the development, integration, and simulation-based validation of a conflict probability calculation service for Upper Class E Airspace. The findings underscore the potential impact of our approach on decision-making within a simulated setting, contributing to the understanding of its practical applications in operational scenarios.

Upper Class E Traffic Management↗

NASA NTRS2013

Analysis of Interactive Conflict Resolution Tool Usage in a Mixed Equipage Environment

A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted that examined separation assurance concepts in varying levels of traffic density with mixtures of aircraft equipage and automation. This paper's analysis focuses on one of the experimental conditions in which traffic levels were approximately fifty percent higher than today, and approximately fifty percent of the traffic within the test area were equipped with data communications (data comm) capabilities. The other fifty percent of the aircraft required control by voice much like today. Within this environment, the air traffic controller participants were provided access to tools and automation designed to support the primary task of separation assurance that are currently unavailable. Two tools were selected for analysis in this paper: 1) a pre-probed altitude fly-out menu that provided instant feedback of conflict probe results for a range of altitudes, and 2) an interactive auto resolver that provided on-demand access to an automation-generated conflict resolution trajectory. Although encouraged, use of the support tools was not required; the participants were free to use the tools as they saw fit, and they were also free to accept, reject, or modify the resolutions offered by the automation. This mode of interaction provided a unique opportunity to examine exactly when and how these tools were used, as well as how acceptable the resolutions were. Results showed that the participants used the pre-probed altitude fly-out menu in 14% of conflict cases and preferred to use it in a strategic timeframe on data comm equipped and level flight aircraft. The interactive auto resolver was also used in a primarily strategic timeframe on 22% of conflicts and that their preference was to use it on conflicts involving data comm equipped aircraft as well. Of the 258 resolutions displayed, 46% were implemented and 54% were not. The auto resolver was rated highly by participants in terms of confidence and preference. Factors such as aircraft equipage, ownership, and location of predicted separation loss appeared to play a role in the decision of controllers to accept or reject the auto resolver's resolutions.

auto resolver↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parametric Study of Federated Conflict Resolution for UAM Operations

This work presents a federated conflict resolution algorithm and its parametric study for UAM operations. A federated speed-control-based conflict resolution algorithm is introduced first, including its rules of the road, data exchange requirement, and critical parameters. Two experiments were set up for the parametric study. The first investigates five parameters: look ahead time, resolution update interval, maximum allowed speed reduction, traffic flow interval, and crossing angle. The second experiment studies the uncertainty of departure time. Metrics associated with safety, efficiency, and conflict resolution effort were measured for each scenario. A Design Of Experiment (DOE) analysis was used to perform the multi-factor analysis for the first experiment. It revealed that the crossing angle and flow interval were the most critical parameters across all three metrics, followed by maximum allowed speed reduction. Look ahead time and resolution update interval were of minor significance to safety and conflict resolution effort, but had little to no effect on efficiency. The analysis of the second experiment showed that, given a flow rate, the fluctuation in departure time was absorbed by the conflict resolution algorithm, which resulted in a relatively small fluctuation in airborne delay.

Urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parametric Study of Federated Conflict Resolution for UAM Operations using DOE Analysis

Urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Roadmap to Cooperative Operating Practices for Strategic Conflict Detection and Resolution in the Upper Class-E Traffic Management Concept

As the governing body of flight operations in the highly anticipated emergent area of Upper Class E airspace (60,000 ft and above), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has recognized the potential for a possible extensible traffic management system for new entrants into this domain. Following the successes with Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) and Advanced / Urban Air Mobility (AAM / UAM) Traffic Management programs, FAA put forth an initial concept of operations for supporting the start of the Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM) concept. Like UTM and AAM / UAM, ETM is envisioned to also be a community-based, industry driven cooperative management concept. However, tailoring it to be adaptable to the atmospheric communication, navigation, and surveillance deficits, as well as the diverse vehicle and mission profiles operating in the ETM environment will be the challenge. As such, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center has been investigating several technologies that will help enable industry in the development of this new type of cooperative operating environment. These technologies are being prototyped and will be tested in a collaborative evaluation of an initial ETM system in late 2023. The evaluation will concentrate on building out ETM system technologies that will inform the participants regarding operational intent sharing, strategic conflict detection, and the resultant deconfliction process. In addition to the technical aspects, key roles and responsibilities will need to be defined. This will be done through exploring community-agreed upon Cooperative Operating Practices (COPs) that include procedures and capabilities to aid in timely, strategic conflict identification and resolution to be developed during the evaluation. As an initial step to the evaluation, the ETM research team at NASA Ames solicited industry feedback on various aspects of ETM operations from subject matter experts. A virtual tabletop walkthrough session was held over a two-day period to follow a roadmap through the functional steps needed to build COPs, focusing on strategic conflict detection and resolution. Overall, the ETM tabletop provided insights into how the community wanted to instantiate the generation and sharing of operational intent, detect strategic conflicts and resolve those conflicts using a preliminary set of procedural community-agreed upon COPs.

Upper Class-E Traffic Management (ETM)↗

NASA NTRS1994

Conflict-free trajectory planning for air traffic control automation

As the traffic demand continues to grow within the National Airspace System (NAS), the need for long-range planning (30 minutes plus) of arrival traffic increases greatly. Research into air traffic control (ATC) automation at ARC has led to the development of the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS). CTAS determines optimum landing schedules for arrival traffic and assists controllers in meeting those schedules safely and efficiently. One crucial element in the development of CTAS is the capability to perform long-range (20 minutes) and short-range (5 minutes) conflict prediction and resolution once landing schedules are determined. The determination of conflict-free trajectories within the Center airspace is particularly difficult because of large variations in speed and altitude. The paper describes the current design and implementation of the conflict prediction and resolution tools used to generate CTAS advisories in Center airspace. Conflict criteria (separation requirements) are defined and the process of separation prediction is described. The major portion of the paper will describe the current implementation of CTAS conflict resolution algorithms in terms of the degrees of freedom for resolutions as well as resolution search techniques. The tools described in this paper have been implemented in a research system designed to rapidly develop and evaluate prototype concepts and will form the basis for an operational ATC automation system.

Slattery, Rhonda↗

NASA NTRS1997

Prototype Conflict Alerting Logic for Free Flight

This paper discusses the development of a prototype alerting system for a conceptual Free Flight environment. The concept assumes that datalink between aircraft is available and that conflicts are primarily resolved on the flight deck. Four alert stages are generated depending on the likelihood of a conflict. If the conflict is not resolved by the flight crews, Air Traffic Control is notified to take over separation authority. The alerting logic is based on probabilistic analysis through modeling of aircraft sensor and trajectory uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulations were used over a range of encounter situations to determine conflict probability. The four alert stages were then defined based on probability of conflict and on the number of avoidance maneuvers available to the flight crew. Preliminary results from numerical evaluations and from a piloted simulator study at NASA Ames Research Center are summarized.

Yang, Lee C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Autonomous Aircraft Operations using RTCA Guidelines for Airborne Conflict Management

A human-in-the-loop experiment was performed at the NASA Langley Research Center to study the feasibility of DAG-TM autonomous aircraft operations in highly constrained airspace. The airspace was constrained by a pair of special-use airspace (SUA) regions on either side of the pilot's planned route. Traffic flow management (TFM) constraints were imposed as a required time of arrival and crossing altitude at an en route fix. Key guidelines from the RTCA Airborne Conflict Management (ACM) concept were applied to autonomous aircraft operations for this experiment. These concepts included the RTCA ACM definitions of distinct conflict detection and collision avoidance zones, and the use of a graded system of conflict alerts for the flight crew. Three studies were conducted in the course of the experiment. The first study investigated the effect of hazard proximity upon pilot ability to meet constraints and solve conflict situations. The second study investigated pilot use of the airborne tools when faced with an unexpected loss of separation (LOS). The third study explored pilot interactions in an over-constrained conflict situation, with and without priority rules dictating who should move first. Detailed results from these studies were presented at the 5th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar (ATM2003). This overview paper focuses on the integration of the RTCA ACM concept into autonomous aircraft operations in highly constrained situations, and provides an overview of the results presented at the ATM2003 seminar. These results, together with previously reported studies, continue to support the feasibility of autonomous aircraft operations.

Krishnamurthy, Karthik↗

NASA NTRS2003

Improved Conflict Detection for Reducing Operational Errors in Air Traffic Control

An operational error is an incident in which an air traffic controller allows the separation between two aircraft to fall below the minimum separation standard. The rates of such errors in the US have increased significantly over the past few years. This paper proposes new detection methods that can help correct this trend by improving on the performance of Conflict Alert, the existing software in the Host Computer System that is intended to detect and warn controllers of imminent conflicts. In addition to the usual trajectory based on the flight plan, a "dead-reckoning" trajectory (current velocity projection) is also generated for each aircraft and checked for conflicts. Filters for reducing common types of false alerts were implemented. The new detection methods were tested in three different ways. First, a simple flightpath command language was developed t o generate precisely controlled encounters for the purpose of testing the detection software. Second, written reports and tracking data were obtained for actual operational errors that occurred in the field, and these were "replayed" to test the new detection algorithms. Finally, the detection methods were used to shadow live traffic, and performance was analysed, particularly with regard to the false-alert rate. The results indicate that the new detection methods can provide timely warnings of imminent conflicts more consistently than Conflict Alert.

Paielli, Russell A.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Experimental Performance of a Genetic Algorithm for Airborne Strategic Conflict Resolution

The Autonomous Operations Planner, a research prototype flight-deck decision support tool to enable airborne self-separation, uses a pattern-based genetic algorithm to resolve predicted conflicts between the ownship and traffic aircraft. Conflicts are resolved by modifying the active route within the ownship s flight management system according to a predefined set of maneuver pattern templates. The performance of this pattern-based genetic algorithm was evaluated in the context of batch-mode Monte Carlo simulations running over 3600 flight hours of autonomous aircraft in en-route airspace under conditions ranging from typical current traffic densities to several times that level. Encountering over 8900 conflicts during two simulation experiments, the genetic algorithm was able to resolve all but three conflicts, while maintaining a required time of arrival constraint for most aircraft. Actual elapsed running time for the algorithm was consistent with conflict resolution in real time. The paper presents details of the genetic algorithm s design, along with mathematical models of the algorithm s performance and observations regarding the effectiveness of using complimentary maneuver patterns when multiple resolutions by the same aircraft were required.

Karr, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Impact of Conflict Avoidance Responsibility Allocation on Pilot Workload in a Distributed Air Traffic Management System

Pilot workload was examined during simulated flights requiring flight deck-based merging and spacing while avoiding weather. Pilots used flight deck tools to avoid convective weather and space behind a lead aircraft during an arrival into Louisville International airport. Three conflict avoidance management concepts were studied: pilot, controller or automation primarily responsible. A modified Air Traffic Workload Input Technique (ATWIT) metric showed highest workload during the approach phase of flight and lowest during the en-route phase of flight (before deviating for weather). In general, the modified ATWIT was shown to be a valid and reliable workload measure, providing more detailed information than post-run subjective workload metrics. The trend across multiple workload metrics revealed lowest workload when pilots had both conflict alerting and responsibility of the three concepts, while all objective and subjective measures showed highest workload when pilots had no conflict alerting or responsibility. This suggests that pilot workload was not tied primarily to responsibility for resolving conflicts, but to gaining and/or maintaining situation awareness when conflict alerting is unavailable.

Ligda, Sarah V.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Conflict Resolution Automation and Pilot Situation Awareness

This study compared pilot situation awareness across three traffic management concepts. The Concepts varied in terms of the allocation of traffic avoidance responsibility between the pilot on the flight deck, the air traffic controllers, and a conflict resolution automation system. In Concept 1, the flight deck was equipped with conflict resolution tools that enable them to fully handle the responsibility of weather avoidance and maintaining separation between ownship and surrounding traffic. In Concept 2, pilots were not responsible for traffic separation, but were provided tools for weather and traffic avoidance. In Concept 3, flight deck tools allowed pilots to deviate for weather, but conflict detection tools were disabled. In this concept pilots were dependent on ground based automation for conflict detection and resolution. Situation awareness of the pilots was measured using online probes. Results showed that individual situation awareness was highest in Concept 1, where the pilots were most engaged, and lowest in Concept 3, where automation was heavily used. These findings suggest that for conflict resolution tasks, situation awareness is improved when pilots remain in the decision-making loop.

Dao, Arik-Quang V.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Experimental Performance of a Genetic Algorithm for Airborne Strategic Conflict Resolution

The Autonomous Operations Planner, a research prototype flight-deck decision support tool to enable airborne self-separation, uses a pattern-based genetic algorithm to resolve predicted conflicts between the ownship and traffic aircraft. Conflicts are resolved by modifying the active route within the ownship's flight management system according to a predefined set of maneuver pattern templates. The performance of this pattern-based genetic algorithm was evaluated in the context of batch-mode Monte Carlo simulations running over 3600 flight hours of autonomous aircraft in en-route airspace under conditions ranging from typical current traffic densities to several times that level. Encountering over 8900 conflicts during two simulation experiments, the genetic algorithm was able to resolve all but three conflicts, while maintaining a required time of arrival constraint for most aircraft. Actual elapsed running time for the algorithm was consistent with conflict resolution in real time. The paper presents details of the genetic algorithm's design, along with mathematical models of the algorithm's performance and observations regarding the effectiveness of using complimentary maneuver patterns when multiple resolutions by the same aircraft were required.

Karr, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Chorus Conflict and Loss of Separation Resolution Algorithms

The Chorus software is designed to investigate near-term, tactical conflict and loss of separation detection and resolution concepts for air traffic management. This software is currently being used in two different problem domains: en-route self- separation and sense and avoid for unmanned aircraft systems. This paper describes the core resolution algorithms that are part of Chorus. The combination of several features of the Chorus program distinguish this software from other approaches to conflict and loss of separation resolution. First, the program stores a history of state information over time which enables it to handle communication dropouts and take advantage of previous input data. Second, the underlying conflict algorithms find resolutions that solve the most urgent conflict, but also seek to prevent secondary conflicts with the other aircraft. Third, if the program is run on multiple aircraft, and the two aircraft maneuver at the same time, the result will be implicitly co-ordinated. This implicit coordination property is established by ensuring that a resolution produced by Chorus will comply with a mathematically-defined criteria whose correctness has been formally verified. Fourth, the program produces both instantaneous solutions and kinematic solutions, which are based on simple accel- eration models. Finally, the program provides resolutions for recovery from loss of separation. Different versions of this software are implemented as Java and C++ software programs, respectively.

Butler, Ricky W.↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Formally Verified Conflict Detection Algorithm for Polynomial Trajectories

In air traffic management, conflict detection algorithms are used to determine whether or not aircraft are predicted to lose horizontal and vertical separation minima within a time interval assuming a trajectory model. In the case of linear trajectories, conflict detection algorithms have been proposed that are both sound, i.e., they detect all conflicts, and complete, i.e., they do not present false alarms. In general, for arbitrary nonlinear trajectory models, it is possible to define detection algorithms that are either sound or complete, but not both. This paper considers the case of nonlinear aircraft trajectory models based on polynomial functions. In particular, it proposes a conflict detection algorithm that precisely determines whether, given a lookahead time, two aircraft flying polynomial trajectories are in conflict. That is, it has been formally verified that, assuming that the aircraft trajectories are modeled as polynomial functions, the proposed algorithm is both sound and complete.

Narkawicz, Anthony↗

NASA NTRS2016

Parametric Analysis of Surveillance Quality and Level and Quality of Intent Information and Their Impact on Conflict Detection Performance

A loss-of-separation (LOS) is said to occur when two aircraft are spatially too close to one another. A LOS is the fundamental unsafe event to be avoided in air traffic management and conflict detection (CD) is the function that attempts to predict these LOS events. In general, the effectiveness of conflict detection relates to the overall safety and performance of an air traffic management concept. An abstract, parametric analysis was conducted to investigate the impact of surveillance quality, level of intent information, and quality of intent information on conflict detection performance. The data collected in this analysis can be used to estimate the conflict detection performance under alternative future scenarios or alternative allocations of the conflict detection function, based on the quality of the surveillance and intent information under those conditions.Alternatively, this data could also be used to estimate the surveillance and intent information quality required to achieve some desired CD performance as part of the design of a new separation assurance system.

Guerreiro, Nelson M.↗