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DOE OSTI2021

Optical Microscopy-Guided Laser Ablation Electrospray Ionization Ion Mobility Mass Spectrometry: Ambient Single Cell Metabolomics with Increased Confidence in Molecular Identification

Single cell analysis is a field of increasing interest as new tools are continually being developed to understand intercellular differences within large cell populations. Laser-ablation electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (LAESI-MS) is an emerging technique for single cell metabolomics. Over the years, it has been validated that this ionization technique is advantageous for probing the molecular content of individual cells in situ. Here, we report the integration of a microscope into the optical train of the LAESI source to allow for visually informed ambient in situ single cell analysis. Additionally, we have coupled this ‘LAESI microscope’ to a drift-tube ion mobility mass spectrometer to enable separation of isobaric species and allow for the determination of ion collision cross sections in conjunction with accurate mass measurements. This combined information helps provide higher confidence for structural assignment of molecules ablated from single cells. Here, we show that this system enables the analysis of the metabolite content of Allium cepa epidermal cells with high confidence structural identification together with their spatial locations within a tissue.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Developing Confidence in Machine Learning Results

As the field of deep learning has emerged in recent years, the amount of knowledge and expertise that data scientists are expected to absorb and maintain has correspondingly increased. One of the challenges experienced by data scientists working with deep learning models is developing confidence in the accuracy of their approach and the resulting findings. In this study, we conducted semi-structured interviews with data scientists at a National Laboratory to understand the processes that data scientists use when attempting to develop their models and the ways that they gain confidence that the results they obtained were accurate. These interviews were analysed to provide an overview of the techniques currently used when working with machine learning (ML) models and opportunities for collaboration with human factors researchers to develop new tools are identified.

Baweja, Jessica A.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Confidence regions of planar cardiac vectors

A method for plotting the confidence regions of vectorial data obtained in electrocardiology is presented. The 90%, 95% and 99% confidence regions of cardiac vectors represented in a plane are obtained in the form of an ellipse centered at coordinates corresponding to the means of a sample selected at random from a bivariate normal distribution. An example of such a plot for the frontal plane QRS mean electrical axis for 80 horses is also presented.

Dubin, S.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Maximum likelihood algorithm using an efficient scheme for computing sensitivities and parameter confidence intervals

Improved techniques for estimating airplane stability and control derivatives and their standard errors are presented. A maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is developed which relies on an optimization scheme referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson scheme with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort compared to integrating the analytically-determined sensitivity equations or using a finite difference scheme. An aircraft estimation problem is solved using real flight data to compare MNRES with the commonly used modified Newton-Raphson technique; MNRES is found to be faster and more generally applicable. Parameter standard errors are determined using a random search technique. The confidence intervals obtained are compared with Cramer-Rao lower bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the nonlinearity of the cost function is an important factor in the relationship between Cramer-Rao bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique.

Murphy, P. C.↗

NASA NTRS1984

NASA's approach to flight confidence

NASA's confidence in the flight readiness of aerospace hardware and software is achieved by a thorough integration of safety activities into every program facet, from concept through the mission. This involves technical and administrative personnel, organizations that specify requirements, design, manufacturing, test and the operators. Reviews by inhouse and external specialists form an integral part of the assurance process. Examples of safety issues and their resolution for some power and propulsion functions are given (lithium cells, autoignition/fretting in high pressure oxygen environments, ignition sources from auxiliary power unit, and low thrust rocket engines). Finally, some comments on NASA's integrated safety activities and the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel's role in the NASA review and assessment process all of which provides added confidence in achieving a high level of mission safety and success.

Roth, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Test program to provide confidence in liquid oxygen cooling of hydrocarbon fueled rocket thrust chambers

An experimental program has been planned at the NASA Lewis Research Center to build confidence in the feasibility of liquid oxygen cooling for hydrocarbon fueled rocket engines. Although liquid oxygen cooling has previously been incorporated in test hardware, more runtime is necessary to gain confidence in this concept. In the previous tests, small oxygen leaks developed at the throat of the thrust chamber and film cooled the hot-gas side of the chamber wall without resulting in catastrophic failure. However, more testing is necessary to demonstrate that a catastrophic failure would not occur if cracks developed further upstream between the injector and the throat, where the boundary layer has not been established. Since under normal conditions cracks are expected to form in the throat region of the thrust chamber, cracks must be initiated artificially in order to control their location. Several methods of crack initiation are discussed in this report. Four thrust chambers, three with cracks and one without, should be tested. The axial location of the cracks should be varied parametrically. Each chamber should be instrumented to determine the effects of the cracks, as well as the overall performance and durability of the chambers.

Armstrong, E. S.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Confidence limits for small numbers of events in astrophysical data

The calculation of limits for small numbers of astronomical counts is based on standard equations derived from Poisson and binomial statistics; although the equations are straightforward, their direct use is cumbersome and involves both table-interpolations and several mathematical operations. Convenient tables and approximate formulae are here presented for confidence limits which are based on such Poisson and binomial statistics. The limits in the tables are given for all confidence levels commonly used in astrophysics.

Gehrels, N.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Development of confidence limits by pivotal functions for estimating software reliability

The utility of pivotal functions is established for assessing software reliability. Based on the Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model of reliability growth, confidence limits for attained reliability and prediction limits for the time to the next failure are derived using a pivotal function approach. Asymptotic approximations to the confidence and prediction limits are considered and are shown to be inadequate in cases where only a few bugs are found in the software. Departures from the assumed exponentially distributed interfailure times in the model are also investigated. The effect of these departures is discussed relative to restricting the use of the Moranda model.

Dotson, Kelly J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Efficient computation of parameter confidence intervals

An important step in system identification of aircraft is the estimation of stability and control derivatives from flight data along with an assessment of parameter accuracy. When the maximum likelihood estimation technique is used, parameter accuracy is commonly assessed by the Cramer-Rao lower bound. It is known, however, that in some cases the lower bound can be substantially different from the parameter variance. Under these circumstances the Cramer-Rao bounds may be misleading as an accuracy measure. This paper discusses the confidence interval estimation problem based on likelihood ratios, which offers a more general estimate of the error bounds. Four approaches are considered for computing confidence intervals of maximum likelihood parameter estimates. Each approach is applied to real flight data and compared.

Murphy, Patrick C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z=(z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y (sup 0) = (y (sub 1) (sup 0), ..., y (sub D (sup 0)), using full or partial knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y (sup 0). The data space Y containing y(sup 0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x, Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. Confidence set inference is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface.

Backus, George E.↗

NASA NTRS1988

A variance based confidence criterion for ERA identified modal parameters

The realization theory is developed in a systematic manner for the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) used for system identification. First, perturbation results are obtained which describe the linearized changes in the identified parameters resulting from small change in the data. Formulas are then derived that can be used to evaluate the variance of each of the identified parameters, assuming that the noise level is sufficiently low to allow the application of linearized results. These variances can be converted to give confidence intervals for each of the parameters for any chosen confidence level.

Longman, Richard W.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Confidence set interference with a prior quadratic bound

Neyman's (1937) theory of confidence sets is developed as a replacement for Bayesian interference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) when the prior information is a hard quadratic bound. It is recommended that BI and SI be replaced by confidence set interference (CSI) only in certain circumstances. The geomagnetic problem is used to illustrate the general theory of CSI.

Backus, George E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Developing Confidence Limits For Reliability Of Software

Technique developed for estimating reliability of software by use of Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model. Pivotal method enables straightforward construction of exact bounds with associated degree of statistical confidence about reliability of software. Confidence limits thus derived provide precise means of assessing quality of software. Limits take into account number of bugs found while testing and effects of sampling variation associated with random order of discovering bugs.

Hayhurst, Kelly J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Determination of confidence limits for experiments with low numbers of counts

Two different methods, classical and Bayesian, for determining confidence intervals involving Poisson-distributed data are compared. Particular consideration is given to cases where the number of counts observed is small and is comparable to the mean number of background counts. Reasons for preferring the Bayesian over the classical method are given. Tables of confidence limits calculated by the Bayesian method are provided for quick reference.

Kraft, Ralph P.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Confidence Testing of Shell 405 and S-405 Catalysts in a Monopropellant Hydrazine Thruster

As part of the transfer of catalyst manufacturing technology from Shell Chemical Company (Shell 405 catalyst manufactured in Houston, Texas) to Aerojet (S-405 manufactured in Redmond, Washington), Aerojet demonstrated the equivalence of S-405 and Shell 405 at beginning of life. Some US aerospace users expressed a desire to conduct a preliminary confidence test to assess end-of-life characteristics for S-405. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and Aerojet entered a contractual agreement in 2004 to conduct a confidence test using a pair of 0.2-lbf MR-103G monopropellant hydrazine thrusters, comparing S-405 and Shell 405 side by side. This paper summarizes the formulation of this test program, explains the test matrix, describes the progress of the test, and analyzes the test results. This paper also includes a discussion of the limitations of this test and the ramifications of the test results for assessing the need for future qualification testing in particular hydrazine thruster applications.

McRight, Patrick↗

NASA NTRS2006

An Overview of Space Exploration Simulation (Basis of Confidence) Documentation

Models and simulations (M&S) are critical resources in the exploration of space. They support program management, systems engineering, integration, analysis, test, and operations by providing critical information that supports key analyses and decisions (technical, cost and schedule). Consequently, there is a clear need to establish a solid understanding of M&S strengths and weaknesses, and the bounds within which they can credibly support decision making. In this presentation we will describe how development of simulation capability documentation will be used to form a Basis of Confidence (Basis of Confidence) for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) M&S. The process by which BOC documentation is developed will be addressed, as well as the structure and critical concepts that are essential for establishing credibility of NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) legacy M&S. We will illustrate the significance of BOC documentation in supporting decision makers and Accreditation Authorities in M&S risk management.

Bray, Alleen↗

NASA NTRS2011

On the Use of Experimental Methods to Improve Confidence in Educed Impedance

Results from impedance eduction methods developed by NASA Langley Research Center are used throughout the acoustic liner community. In spite of recent enhancements, occasional anomalies persist with these methods, generally at frequencies where the liner produces minimal attenuation. This investigation demonstrates an experimental approach to educe impedance with increased confidence over a desired frequency range, by combining results from successive tests with different cavity depths. A series of tests is conducted with three wire-mesh facesheets, for which the results should be weakly dependent on source sound pressure level and mean grazing flow speed. First, a raylometer is used to measure the DC flow resistance of each facesheet. These facesheets are then mounted onto a frame and a normal incidence tube is used to determine their respective acoustic impedance spectra. A comparison of the acoustic resistance component with the DC flow resistance for each facesheet is used to validate the measurement process. Next, each facesheet is successively mounted onto three frames with different cavity depths, and a grazing flow impedance tube is used to educe their respective acoustic impedance spectra with and without mean flow. The no-flow results are compared with those measured in the normal incidence tube to validate the impedance eduction method. Since the anti-resonance frequency varies with cavity depth, each sample provides robust results over a different frequency range. Hence, a combination of results can be used to determine the facesheet acoustic resistance. When combined with the acoustic reactance, observed to be weakly dependent on the source sound pressure level and grazing flow Mach number, the acoustic impedance can be educed with increased confidence. Representative results of these tests are discussed, and the complete database is available in electronic format upon request.

Jones, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

Denney, Ewen↗