Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Land mobile satellite transmission measurements at 869 MHz. A comparison of error probabilities for various message block durations and fade margins as a function of vegetation shadowing

In order to give vehicles travelling in rural areas of the U.S. access to the telephone network, a Land Mobile Satellite System is being planned. Previously presented data by the author were analyzed for the probability that the received signal level dropped below a threshold during short time blocks of various signal durations and the conditional probability that such an event would reoccur after a given delay. If it assumed that a fade threshold crossing of even 1 msec would produce an error in the transmission, then the derived quantities can be considered error probabilities. Extensive tables and graphs are presented with the results from the analysis. They can be used to devise communication strategies which will provide improved link availability in the presence of vegetation shadowing.

Vogel, Wolfhard J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Effect of noisy phase reference on coherent detection of unbalanced QPSK signals

A phase error in the reference signal used in coherent detection of PSK signals causes a degradation in performance; this effect on bit error probability has been much discussed in the literature for BPSK and balanced QPSK systems. For unbalanced QPSK (UQPSK) systems, where the power and data rates in the two channels are unequal, and where the channel data symbols might also be different, the problem of computing the error probability is more complex, and only approximate solutions have been previously given. In this paper, exact expressions are derived for the conditional probability of error for the I and Q channels as a function of the channel power and data rate ratio. This is done for all combinations of Manchester and NRZ signalling schemes, and it is shown that in some cases the low data rate channel can be more seriously affected by a phase offset. Numerical results are also given for the average probability of error, assuming a biphase Costas loop is used for carrier synchronization.

Osborne, H. C.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Dynamical Simulation of Probabilities

It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-Lipschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices(such as random number generators). Self-orgainizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed. Special attention was focused upon coupled stochastic processes, defined in terms of conditional probabilities, for which joint probability does not exist. Simulations of quantum probabilities are also discussed.

number generators quantum probabilities↗
NASA NTRS1972

A Markov chain technique for determining the acquisition behavior of a digital tracking loop

An iterative procedure is presented for determining the acquisition behavior of discrete or digital implementations of a tracking loop. The technique is based on the theory of Markov chains and provides the cumulative probability of acquisition in the loop as a function of time in the presence of noise and a given set of initial condition probabilities. A digital second-order tracking loop to be used in the Viking command receiver for continuous tracking of the command subcarrier phase was analyzed using this technique, and the results agree closely with experimental data.

Chadwick, H. D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating template generation in resonant anomaly detection searches with optimal transport

We introduce Resonant Anomaly Detection with Optimal Transport (RAD-OT), a method for generating signal templates in resonant anomaly detection searches. RAD-OT leverages the fact that the samples from the conditional probability density of the target features vary approximately linearly along the optimal transport path connecting the resonant feature. This does not assume that the conditional density itself is linear with the resonant feature, allowing RAD-OT to efficiently capture multimodal relationships, changes in resolution, etc. By solving the optimal transport problem, RAD-OT can quickly build a template by interpolating between the background distributions in two sideband regions. We demonstrate the performance of RAD-OT using the LHC Olympics R&D dataset, where we find comparable sensitivity and improved stability with respect to deep learning-based approaches.

Automation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geostatistical Mapping of Salinity Conditioned on Borehole Logs, Montebello Oil Field, California

We present a geostatistics-based stochastic salinity estimation framework for the Montebello Oil Field that capitalizes on available total dissolved solids (TDS) data from groundwater samples as well as electrical resistivity (ER) data from borehole logging. Data from TDS samples (n = 4924) was coded into an indicator framework based on falling below four selected thresholds (500, 1000, 3000, and 10,000 mg/L). Collocated TDS-ER data from the surrounding groundwater basin were then employed to produce a kernel density estimator to establish conditional probabilities for ER data (n = 8 boreholes) falling below the selected TDS thresholds within the Montebello Oil Field area. Directional variograms were estimated from these indicator coded data, and 500 TDS realizations from conditional indicator simulation were generated for the subsurface region above the Montebello Oil Field reservoir. Simulations were summarized as 3D maps of median TDS, most likely salinity class, and probability for exceeding each of the specified TDS thresholds. Results suggested TDS was below 500 mg/L in most of the study area, with a trend toward higher values (500 to 1000 mg/L) to the southwest; consistent with the average regional groundwater flow direction. Discrete localized zones of TDS greater than 1000 mg/L were observed, with one of these zones in the greater than 10,000 mg/L range; however, these areas were not prevalent. The probabilistic approach used here is adaptable and is readily modified to include additional data and types and can be employed in time-lapse salinity modeling through Bayesian updating.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Integrated-Circuit Pseudorandom-Number Generator

Integrated circuit produces 8-bit pseudorandom numbers from specified probability distribution, at rate of 10 MHz. Use of Boolean logic, circuit implements pseudorandom-number-generating algorithm. Circuit includes eight 12-bit pseudorandom-number generators, outputs are uniformly distributed. 8-bit pseudorandom numbers satisfying specified nonuniform probability distribution are generated by processing uniformly distributed outputs of eight 12-bit pseudorandom-number generators through "pipeline" of D flip-flops, comparators, and memories implementing conditional probabilities on zeros and ones.

Steelman, James E.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Bivariate normal, conditional and rectangular probabilities: A computer program with applications

Some results for the bivariate normal distribution analysis are presented. Computer programs for conditional normal probabilities, marginal probabilities, as well as joint probabilities for rectangular regions are given: routines for computing fractile points and distribution functions are also presented. Some examples from a closed circuit television experiment are included.

Swaroop, R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multisource Data Fusion Outage Location in Distribution Systems via Probabilistic Graphical Models

Efficient outage location is critical to enhancing the resilience of power distribution systems. However, accurate outage location requires combining massive evidence received from diverse data sources, including smart meter (SM) last gasp signals, customer trouble calls, social media messages, weather data, vegetation information, and physical parameters of the network. This is a computationally complex task due to the high dimensionality of data in distribution grids. In this paper, we propose a multi-source data fusion approach to locate outage events in partially observable distribution systems using Bayesian networks (BNs). A novel aspect of the proposed approach is that it takes multi-source evidence and the complex structure of distribution systems into account using a probabilistic graphical method. Our method can radically reduce the computational complexity of outage location inference in high-dimensional spaces. The graphical structure of the proposed BN is established based on the network’s topology and the causal relationship between random variables, such as the states of branches/customers and evidence. Utilizing this graphical model, accurate outage locations are obtained by leveraging a Gibbs sampling (GS) method, to infer the probabilities of de-energization for all branches. Compared with commonly-used exact inference methods that have exponential complexity in the size of the BN, GS quantifies the target conditional probability distributions in a timely manner. As a result, a case study of several real-world distribution systems is presented to validate the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Artificial Neural Networks for In-Cycle Prediction of Knock Events

Downsized turbocharged engines have been increasingly popular in modern light-duty vehicles due to their fuel efficiency benefits. However, high power density in such engines is achieved thanks to high in-cylinder pressure and temperature conditions that increase knock propensity. Next-cycle control has been studied as a method to reduce the damaging effects of knock by operating the engine in a low knock probability condition. This exploratory study looks at the feasibility of in-cycle knock prediction as a tool for advanced knock control algorithms. A methodology is proposed to 1) choose in-cycle features of the pressure trace that highly correlate with knock events and 2) train artificial neural networks to predict in-cycle knock events before knock onset. The methodology was validated at different operating conditions and different levels of generalization. Precision and recall were used as metrics to evaluate the binary classifier. However, the Fowlkes-Mallows (FM) index was used to compare the result of the clustering algorithm at different operating conditions. The results showed a maximum FM index of 0.7 when the prediction was done at knock onset and a minimum FM index of 0.45 when the prediction was done at spark timing.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1985

The partial volatilization of Mercury

During recent years research on the primitive solar nebula has followed two main themes: (1) Very early in the development of the nebula conditions probably favored the occurrence of major gaseous instabilities leading to the formation of giant gaseous protoplanets, but the rapid rise of the external temperature soon evaporated the envelopes of these protoplanets, possibly leaving behind precipitated solids which formed the cores and mantles of the terrestrial planets. (2) Models of the nebula indicate a later stage when conditions in the inner Solar System became very hot; at the position of Mercury the temperature was probably in the range 2500-3500 K. This leads to the hypothesis that the original protomercury was a body substantially more massive than the present planet and of normal composition, but that when it was immersed in the high-temperature field of the dissipating solar nebula, most of the rocky mantle was vaporized and mixed into the solar nebula gases and carried away by them. This hypothesis is investigated in the present paper. For simplicity the vaporization of a mantle composed of enstatite, MgSiO3, was computed for a planet with 2.25 the mass of Mercury at a temperature of 3000 K. It is argued that the mantle could probably be largely removed in the available time of 30,000 yrs. Subsequent accretion would restore some magnesium silicates to the mantle of the planet.

Cameron, A. G. W.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Estimating probabilities of cloud-free fields-of-view from the earth through the atmosphere

The paper is an extension of previous papers by Lund and Shanklin (1972, 1973). It presents probabilities of cloud-free fields-of-view (CFFOV) to supplement probabilities of cloud-free lines-of-sight (CFLOS) contained in the earlier papers. A model is developed for estimating the probability of obtaining a CFFOV as a function of ground-observer-reported total sky cover for earth-to-space applications. The development of the model and examples of its application are described. A comparison of CFFOV and CFLOS results is made. In conclusion, climatic probabilities of CFFOV overhead through the entire atmosphere between the surface of the earth and space can be estimated for any desired geographical location through the use of a specified equation and conditional probabilities contained in the paper, if the frequency distribution of total sky cover categories for the desired location is known.

Lund, I. A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Estimating the exceedance probability of rain rate by logistic regression

Recent studies have shown that the fraction of an area with rain intensity above a fixed threshold is highly correlated with the area-averaged rain rate. To estimate the fractional rainy area, a logistic regression model, which estimates the conditional probability that rain rate over an area exceeds a fixed threshold given the values of related covariates, is developed. The problem of dependency in the data in the estimation procedure is bypassed by the method of partial likelihood. Analyses of simulated scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and observed electrically scanning microwave radiometer data during the Global Atlantic Tropical Experiment period show that the use of logistic regression in pixel classification is superior to multiple regression in predicting whether rain rate at each pixel exceeds a given threshold, even in the presence of noisy data. The potential of the logistic regression technique in satellite rain rate estimation is discussed.

Chiu, Long S.↗
NASA NTRS1981

The Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model with an Application to a Geothermal Reservoir at Heber, California

A financial accounting model that incorporates physical and institutional uncertainties was developed for geothermal projects. Among the uncertainties it can handle are well depth, flow rate, fluid temperature, and permit and construction times. The outputs of the model are cumulative probability distributions of financial measures such as capital cost, levelized cost, and profit. These outputs are well suited for use in an investment decision incorporating risk. The model has the powerful feature that conditional probability distribution can be used to account for correlations among any of the input variables. The model has been applied to a geothermal reservoir at Heber, California, for a 45-MW binary electric plant. Under the assumptions made, the reservoir appears to be economically viable.

Orren, L. H.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Reliability computation using fault tree analysis

A method is presented for calculating event probabilities from an arbitrary fault tree. The method includes an analytical derivation of the system equation and is not a simulation program. The method can handle systems that incorporate standby redundancy and it uses conditional probabilities for computing fault trees where the same basic failure appears in more than one fault path.

Chelson, P. O.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Videopanorama Frame Rate Requirements Derived from Visual Discrimination of Deceleration During Simulated Aircraft Landing

In order to determine the required visual frame rate (FR) for minimizing prediction errors with out-the-window video displays at remote/virtual airport towers, thirteen active air traffic controllers viewed high dynamic fidelity simulations of landing aircraft and decided whether aircraft would stop as if to be able to make a turnoff or whether a runway excursion would be expected. The viewing conditions and simulation dynamics replicated visual rates and environments of transport aircraft landing at small commercial airports. The required frame rate was estimated using Bayes inference on prediction errors by linear FRextrapolation of event probabilities conditional on predictions (stop, no-stop). Furthermore estimates were obtained from exponential model fits to the parametric and non-parametric perceptual discriminabilities d' and A (average area under ROC-curves) as dependent on FR. Decision errors are biased towards preference of overshoot and appear due to illusionary increase in speed at low frames rates. Both Bayes and A - extrapolations yield a framerate requirement of 35 < FRmin < 40 Hz. When comparing with published results [12] on shooter game scores the model based d'(FR)-extrapolation exhibits the best agreement and indicates even higher FRmin > 40 Hz for minimizing decision errors. Definitive recommendations require further experiments with FR > 30 Hz.

deceleration perception↗
NASA NTRS1992

Generalized probability model for calculation of interference to the Deep Space Network due to circularly Earth-orbiting satellites

The probability of exceeding interference power levels and the duration of interference at the Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna is calculated parametrically when the state vector of an Earth-orbiting satellite over the DSN station view area is not known. A conditional probability distribution function is derived, transformed, and then convolved with the interference signal uncertainties to yield the probability distribution of interference at any given instant during the orbiter's mission period. The analysis is applicable to orbiting satellites having circular orbits with known altitude and inclination angle.

Ruggier, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1946

An Analytical Investigation of the Heat Losses from a U.S. Navy K-Type Airship

The heat losses from the envelope surface of a U.S. Navy K-type airship are evaluated to determine if the use of heat is a feasible means of preventing ice and snow accumulations on lighter-than-air craft during flight and when moored uncovered. Consideration is given to heat losses in clear air (no liquid water present in the atmosphere) and in probable conditions of icing and snow. The results of the analysis indicate that the amount of heat required in flight to raise the surface temperature of the entire envelope to the extent considered adequate for ice protection, based on experience with tests of heavier-than-air craft, is very large. Existing types of heating equipment which could be used to supply this quantity of heat would probably be too bulky and heavy to provide a practical flight installation. The heat requirements to provide protection for the nose and stern regions in assumed mild to moderate icing conditions appear to be within the range of the capacity of current types of heating equipment suitable for flight use. The amount of heat necessary to prevent snow accumulations on the upper surface of the airship envelope when moored uncovered under all conditions appear to be excessive for the heating equipment presently available for flight use, but could possibly be achieved with auxiliary ground heating equipment.

Hillendahl, Wesley H.↗