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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Evaluation of Geoscientific Hypotheses with Geophysical Data: Application to Electrical Resistivity Imaging of a Fractured Bedrock Zone

As climate changes and populations grow, groundwater sustainability is becoming increasingly important. Groundwater models, based on a conceptual understanding of the subsurface structure, are crucial tools for making sustainable management decisions. Conceptual models of the subsurface are based on knowledge of geological processes, and, frequently, observations from geophysical data. A frequent problem in groundwater model development occurs when multiple geological phenomena could explain a single subsurface observation. Uncertainty in geophysical data makes it even more difficult to discern which explanations are consistent with the geophysics. Here, we present a framework for testing geological when a geological feature is observed in geophysical data, but its physical characteristics are uncertain. The framework builds on Popper-Bayes methods developed in previous work, and is applied to study a fractured bedrock zone in a mountainous watershed in southwest Colorado. First, we outline six hypotheses based on the geological history of the watershed. Then, using the proposed Popper-Bayes approach, we demonstrate that three of the six hypotheses are inconsistent with measured electrical resistivity data, even after accounting for uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the importance of the prior model, and how this framework for handling geophysical uncertainty can be applied in other settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics-informed machine learning for fault-leakage reduced-order modeling

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a promising technology for mitigating CO 2 emissions. The overall success of GCS depends on safe operations that are informed by risk assessment and have proper mitigation plans in place. Performing quantitative probabilistic risk assessment for a GCS site using traditional reservoir simulators can be challenging due to the high computational costs. To overcome this challenge, the US Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) project has developed an integrated assessment modeling approach that utilizes computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROM) for simulating various parts of a GCS storage site to quantify uncertainty. Here, in this study, we develop a reduced-order model for fault leakage risk assessment. We use a deep learning approach to build the reduced-order model. We perform a sensitivity analysis and find that the deep learning model yields high accuracy with a much smaller computational cost than full-physics simulation. We also evaluate the performance of the model in scenarios where simulations are not possible to run, providing analysis not previously performed in fault-leakage ROM analyses. Based on a sensitivity analysis of the model, we suggest a simplified conceptual model for fault leakage and site monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plant litter traits control microbial decomposition and drive soil carbon stabilization

Efforts to manage soils for carbon (C) sequestration remain limited by our understanding of how differences in plant traits and microbial traits mechanistically drive soil organic C (SOC) storage. Addressing this uncertainty is particularly critical in bioenergy agriculture, due to its potential to enhance soil C and provide a C neutral fuel. As such, we examined differences between two contrasting feedstocks, Zea mays (corn) and Miscanthus x giganteus (miscanthus), in the ability of their litter to form new chemically resistant particulate SOC vs. physically protected mineral associated SOC and used this data to improve the parameterization of a microbial SOC model. We tested a hypothesized conceptual model whereby easy to decompose corn litters drive greater microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) and the formation of more mineral associated SOC over particulate SOC than more complex miscanthus litters. To do this, we performed a soil microcosm experiment where we added 13 C enriched aboveground and belowground litters to soils and traced the fate of the 13 C into microbial respiration and SOC pools. We found that corn litters promoted higher microbial CUE (0.37) than miscanthus litters (0.24). In turn, corn litter formed approximately 50% more mineral associated SOC than miscanthus litters. Similarly, structurally complex root litters promoted a lower CUE and formed less mineral associated SOC than leaf and shoot litters for both crops. When we used our data to parameterize the SOC model, we found that modelling microbial trait differences uniquely allowed the model to capture the fate of litter C in SOC. Collectively, we found a robust link between litter quality, microbial efficiency, and the formation of SOC. This link bridges the empirical uncertainty in how different crops can form new soil C and provides an empirical basis for modelling SOC transformations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

BrzostekEcologyLab/CORPSE-soil-jars

Efforts to manage soils for carbon (C) sequestration remain limited by our understanding of how differences in plant traits and microbial traits mechanistically drive soil organic C (SOC) storage. Addressing this uncertainty is particularly critical in bioenergy agriculture, due to its potential to enhance soil C and provide a C neutral fuel. As such, we examined differences between two contrasting feedstocks, Zea mays (corn) and Miscanthus x giganteus (miscanthus), in the ability of their litter to form new chemically resistant particulate SOC vs. physically protected mineral associated SOC and used this data to improve the parameterization of a microbial SOC model. We tested a hypothesized conceptual model whereby easy to decompose corn litters drive greater microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) and the formation of more mineral associated SOC over particulate SOC than more complex miscanthus litters. To do this, we performed a soil microcosm experiment where we added 13C enriched aboveground and belowground litters to soils and traced the fate of the 13C into microbial respiration and SOC pools. We found that corn litters promoted higher microbial CUE (0.37) than miscanthus litters (0.24). In turn, corn litter formed approximately 50% more mineral associated SOC than miscanthus litters. Similarly, structurally complex root litters promoted a lower CUE and formed less mineral associated SOC than leaf and shoot litters for both crops. When we used our data to parameterize the SOC model, we found that modeling microbial trait differences uniquely allowed the model to capture the fate of litter C in SOC. Collectively, we found a robust link between litter quality, microbial efficiency, and the formation of SOC. This link bridges the empirical uncertainty in how different crops can form new soil C and provides an empirical basis for modeling SOC transformations.

Ridgeway, Joanna↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Homogenized Models to Explore the Effect of Fracture Densities on Weathering

Despite its importance, only a few researchers have incorporated the effects of fracturing into models of reactive transport for rock weathering. Here we explore 2D simulations that describe weathering under conditions of diffusive and advective transport within heterogeneous media consisting of rocky blocks and fractures. In our simulations, the Darcy velocities vary in space and time and depend on weathering processes within the rock matrix. We explore simulations with saturated and unsaturated flow for weathering bedrock that consists of blocks separated by inert or weathered material. The simulations show that a simplified homogenized model can approximate exact solutions for some of the simulated columns and hills and can allow exploration of coupling between flow and reaction in fractured rock. These hillslope simulations document that, even in the presence of 2D water flow, i) an increase in fracture density results in faster weathering advance rates; and ii) the water table locates deeper for a rock system that is weathered and fractured rather than weathered and unfractured. Some of these patterns have also been observed for natural systems. But these simulations also highlight how simplified models that do not use appropriate averaging of heterogeneities can be inaccurate in predicting weathering rate for natural systems. For example, if water flows both vertically and laterally through the vadose zone of a hill, then a prediction of the depth of regolith that is based on modeling strictly unidirectional downward infiltration will be unrealistically large. Likewise, if the fracture density observed near the land surface is used in a model to predict depth of weathering for a system where the fracture density decreases downward, the model will overestimate regolith depth. Learning how to develop accurately homogenized models could thus enable better conceptual models and predictions of weathering advance in natural systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A holistic framework integrating plant-microbe-mineral regulation of soil bioavailable nitrogen

Abstract Soil organic nitrogen (N) is a critical resource for plants and microbes, but the processes that govern its cycle are not well-described. To promote a holistic understanding of soil N dynamics, we need an integrated model that links soil organic matter (SOM) cycling to bioavailable N in both unmanaged and managed landscapes, including agroecosystems. We present a framework that unifies recent conceptual advances in our understanding of three critical steps in bioavailable N cycling: organic N (ON) depolymerization and solubilization; bioavailable N sorption and desorption on mineral surfaces; and microbial ON turnover including assimilation, mineralization, and the recycling of microbial products. Consideration of the balance between these processes provides insight into the sources, sinks, and flux rates of bioavailable N. By accounting for interactions among the biological, physical, and chemical controls over ON and its availability to plants and microbes, our conceptual model unifies complex mechanisms of ON transformation in a concrete conceptual framework that is amenable to experimental testing and translates into ideas for new management practices. This framework will allow researchers and practitioners to use common measurements of particulate organic matter (POM) and mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) to design strategic organic N-cycle interventions that optimize ecosystem productivity and minimize environmental N loss.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Basin and Range Investigation for Developing Geothermal Energy: Exploration Data

This data package includes exploration material from the Basin & Range Investigation for Developing Geothermal Energy [in Hidden Systems] project (BRIDGE), which is part of a broader initiative to advance the exploration of hidden geothermal resources in the Basin & Range Province of the western U.S. Data modalities include a helicopter-borne time-domain electromagnetic survey, magnetotellurics, 2-meter temperature measurements, ground-based gravity and legacy aeromagnetic surveys, geochemistry, geologic mapping, LiDAR analysis, 3D models, associated geospatial data, and a bibliography of existing data and references utilized in prospect characterization and conceptual modeling. Key files are in CSV, Geosoft, and Geotools formats. Please refer to READMEs for dataset-specific information. Where applicable, acquisition data and inversion models for a particular prospect or area of interest are organized separately. This BRIDGE data package is the product of a collaboration led by Sandia National Laboratories with partners from Geologica Geothermal Group, Inc., the U.S. Navy Geothermal Program Office, and consultants Steven Sewell (Australis Geoscience Ltd) and William Cumming (Cumming Geoscience). The project's areas of interest (AOIs) are based off priority areas of interest in the southwestern portion of the Nevada Play Fairway map, distribution across tectonic provinces, accessibility, and the project team's extensive experience in the region. AOIs cover about a dozen basins that include unexplored prospects, partially explored prospects, and some developed analogue resources that provide validation cases. Many unexplored and partially explored prospects are on U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) land, though adjacent lands are included as well.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of capillary heterogeneity on CO 2 flow and trapping across scales

Capillary heterogeneity has been identified over the last decade as a key control on subsurface CO 2 flow behavior during geological CO 2 sequestration. These heterogeneities can be formed in all sedimentary rocks, ranging from slight variations in the sand grain sizes to extensive sequences of interbedded sands, shales, and limestones. Capillary heterogeneity has been largely, although not entirely, overlooked in subsurface flow modeling because it is assumed to only directly influence fluid redistribution over scales of centimeters to meters. However, even small-scale fluid movements can result in dramatic impacts on the mobility and trapping of the CO 2 over kilometers. Therefore, neglecting capillary heterogeneity at multiple scales could potentially lead to errors in modeling and predicting field-scale plume migration. In this review paper, we aim to provide a consistent overview to (1) establish that capillary heterogeneity can have a major impact on CO 2 plume migration, (2) establish the respective length scales at which capillary heterogeneity matters, and (3) provide guidance for numerical modeling. This review covers pertinent literature and extracts key observations from the core to the field scales. Experimental studies have shown that millimeter-decimeter scale capillary heterogeneity can cause the so-called capillary heterogeneity trapping in addition to pore-scale residual trapping. Even at such a small scale, capillary heterogeneity can already lead to complex upscaled constitutive relationships, such as flow-rate dependent and anisotropic relative permeability, which affects field-scale CO 2 migration even when field-scale heterogeneities are present. Under gravity-dominated flow regimes, centimeter-meter scale capillary heterogeneity can entrap a significant amount of CO 2 at field scale, not just after imbibition but also during drainage. In certain cases, the presence of capillary heterogeneity can even completely stop the vertical movement of the CO 2 plume, hence greatly reducing leakage risks. At meter-kilometer scale, the influence of capillary heterogeneity is more pronounced and can hinder or redirect CO 2 migration in both lateral and vertical directions. The impact of capillary heterogeneity across multiple spatial scales poses a great challenge in modeling CO 2 migration at field scale, because it is practically impossible to build a field-scale earth model with grid blocks at millimeter scale. We recommend a hierarchical modeling approach to address this challenge. At field scale, earth models are built to capture geological features and heterogeneities in high but still practical grid resolutions. For each facies or rock type of the field-scale model, high- resolution meter-scale “conceptual” models are built with millimeter-scale grid blocks to capture representative fine-scale bedding geometries and heterogeneities in various environments of deposition, bridging the gap from subcore scale to the size of a field-scale simulation grid block. Upscaling is then used to preserve the smaller-scale flow dynamics of various rock types in field-scale simulations. Here, future work is needed to (1) refine, improve, and validate the hierarchical modeling approach; (2) build libraries of fine-scale bedding models for facies in various environments of deposition; (3) quantify multiscale capillary heterogeneity effects under subsurface uncertainties; (4) gain learning from different storage formations; and (5) establish best practices that balance accuracy and computational speed.

Capillary heterogeneity↗
DOE OSTI2022

EGS Collab Experiment 2: Earth Model Datasets

The EGS Collab Project performed a series of tests to increase the understanding the response of crystalline rock mass to stimulations and fluid circulation to efficiently implement enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) technologies. The EGS Collab team created two underground testbeds at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead SD at a depth of approximately 1.5 km (4850 level) and 1.25 km (4100 level) to examine hydraulic fracturing and hydraulic shearing, respectively. Experiment 2 was designed to examine hydraulic shearing and fluid flow in testbed 2 in amphibolite under a controlled set of stress and fracture conditions. This document summarizes the general geology, natural fractures, and conceptual model(s) of stimulated fracture networks in the testbed 2. The dataset package included here are input and output products associated with Earth Models for the EGS Collab Testbed 2. The earth model datasets are included in the whole package (project) in Leapfrog file format. Also, datasets are given in primary input file format (csv).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task E Final Report

This is the Task E final report for DECOVALEX-2023. Task E is focused on understanding thermal, two-phase hydrological, and mechanical (TH2M) processes, especially related to predicting brine migration in the excavation damaged zone around a heated excavation in salt. Salt is attractive as a disposal medium for radioactive waste because it is self-healing and is essentially impermeable and essentially non-porous in the far field (away from excavations). Investigation of the short-term (days to years) near-field (centimeters to tens of meters) behavior of salt is important for radioactive waste disposal because this early period strongly controls the amount of brine in a salt repository. Brine leads to corrosion of waste forms and waste packages, and possible dissolution of radionuclides with brine transport being a potential transport vector to the accessible environment. The main test case used in Task E is the ongoing Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) heater test located underground at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, USA. The Task was divided into a series of Steps. Step 0 was an introduction to processes in salt, that included matching historical unheated brine inflow data from boreholes at WIPP and matching temperature observations during BATS heater test 1a. Step 1 included validation of models against a thermo-poroelastic analytical solution relevant to heated boreholes in salt, and two-phase flow around an excavation in salt. Step 2 required all the individual components covered in steps 0 and 1 to come together to match observed brine inflow behavior during the BATS 1a heater test. There were a range of approaches from the teams, from mechanistic to prescriptive. Given the uncertainties in the problem, some teams used one- or two-dimensional models of the processes, while other teams included more geometrical complexity in three-dimensional models. The key learning points from Task E have been: • Heat conduction through salt typically requires non-linear thermal conductivity (as a function of temperature), but most models do a good job matching observations, given appropriate adjustments to the applied power and some thermocouple locations. • Thermal pressurization requires coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) responses that consider the thermal expansion of the fluid and solid phases. • Initialization of two-phase flow models around a borehole or excavation in salt are more realistically represented as “wetting up”, rather than “drying down” (i.e., the initial state after excavation is mostly dry, rather than mostly wet). • The BATS 1a heater test includes a significant release of brine after the end of heating, which requires a large increase in permeability to recreate. Task E has been a great learning experience for all the teams involved, and feedback from the modeling teams has led to changes in the design of follow-on BATS experiments, which are now ongoing underground at WIPP. There was a balance throughout the task between freedom to model phenomena how each team saw fit, and prescriptiveness in problem design to bring the modeling teams closer together to allow attribution of smaller differences between models to different modeling choices. The modeling approaches seem to go through two phases: an early phase of discovery or testing, and a later phase of refinement and improvement. In future modeling efforts, different field data could be used (e.g., BATS 2) and more time should be included in the processes for teams to make multiple model refinement or even significant changes to their conceptual model or setup, based on lessons learned from the modeling exercise.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying synoptic controls on boundary layer thermodynamic and cloud properties in a regional forecast model

Although most of our understanding of boundary layer cloudiness is based on idealized, subtropical, barotropic marine environments, boundary layer clouds exist across a range of conditions. In this study, we use the Naval Research Laboratory's Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) and an automated cold-front-relative analysis framework to explore the boundary layer structure associated with low clouds across a transect through the cold front of a midlatitude synoptic cyclone. The model credibly captures boundary layer structure in line with conceptual models of midlatitude cyclones and ground-based observations at Graciosa Island in the Azores. The warm sector is conditionally unstable, with clouds that are too shallow and with too little liquid water, compared to cloud property retrievals from satellite and surface-based instruments. The cold-frontal region exhibits convection associated with weak stability and ascent. Northwest of the cold front, the boundary layer is well mixed, deeper, and capped by a strong inversion maintained by large-scale subsidence. Simulated clouds in frontal and post-frontal regions are mostly too thick, with too much liquid water and too little cloud base drizzle. The post-frontal clouds are associated with grid-scale updrafts, which appear to be the model's attempt to represent mesoscale organization of cellular convection typically observed in the cold sector of midlatitude cyclones. The deep, well-mixed post-frontal boundary layers and cloudiness are maintained by strong surface fluxes, as in cold air outbreaks. Our analysis framework serves as a unique approach to model verification, and our results offer insights into differences in boundary layer cloud behavior between subtropical and synoptic cold-sector regimes.

Eissner, Jordan M. [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mineral-associated organic matter is heterogeneous and structured by hydrophobic, charged, and polar interactions

The formation of mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) is a key phenomenon that may explain the slow turnover rates of carbon in soil organic matter (SOM). Despite this, important details pertaining to the structure and dynamics of MAOM remain unknown. In the present study, we use replica-exchange molecular dynamics simulations to gain insight into the structure of MAOM on the surface of prototypical phyllosilicate clay and Fe-oxide minerals, montmorillonite and goethite, fine-grained minerals that strongly impact soil carbon dynamics in temperate and tropical regions, respectively. We examine the impact of aqueous chemistry through the presence of either Na + or Ca 2 + charge balancing counterions. Our results are consistent with the hypothesized multilayer sorption (“onion-skin”) model of MAOM and help to explain previous observations regarding the patchy distribution of SOM on mineral surfaces. In particular, the SOM coatings are partial and laterally heterogeneous, and water retains extensive access to mineral surfaces even when significant SOM sorption occurs. Low molecular weight neutral SOM molecules ( < 200 Da) infrequently interact with the mineral surfaces nor their sorbed organic matter coatings and are increasingly labile with decreasing molecular weight. This observation is inconsistent with a central feature of the predominant soil continuum model of SOM and suggests that further iterations of the conceptual model may be required.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model Inputs, Outputs, and Scripts associated with: “Combined effects of stream hydrology and land use on basin-scale hyporheic zone denitrification in the Columbia River Basin”

This data package is associated with the publication “Combined effects of stream hydrology and land use on basin‐scale hyporheic zone denitrification in the Columbia River Basin”, published in Water Resource Research (Son et al.2022) available at https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031131. This data package includes the key model inputs/outputs of the river corridor model for the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and the model source codes used in the manuscript. The model is a carbon-nitrogen-coupled river corridor model (RCM), and the model is used to quantify hyporheic zone (HZ) denitrification at the NHDPLUS stream reach scales. The RCM used in this study combines empirical substrate models derived from observations and three microbially driven reactions, including two-step denitrification and aerobic respiration, are considered within the HZ. The key input data of the model are exchange flux, residence time, and stream solute (dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved oxygen (DO), and nitrate concentrations). These inputs are constant over time and represent long-term averaged values. This study uses the RCM to explore the spatial patterns of HZ denitrification across reaches with different sizes and land use in the CRB. Our main objective is to use the RCM as a virtual reality model, and the machine-learning models as surrogates that encapsulate the complexities of the physics-based model while identifying the importance of different variables that are not evident in the model conceptualization. We do not include a direct comparison of the modeled HZ denitrification and measurements; however, the RCM can capture the overall spatial patterns of the HZ denitrification because the model inputs and its reaction networks are based on well-established theory and a physical-based model. The combination of the model-based predictions and a machine-learning approach (e.g., random forest) is used to improve our understanding of what variables of the model are associated with spatial patterns of the modeled denitrification across reaches with different sizes and land uses, and to develop a proxy model using measurable variables to reproduce the simulated patterns.This dataset contains five folders: (1) model_inputs, (2) model_outputs, (3) Rscripts, (4) figures, and (5) model_codes. It also contains a readme, file level metadata (FLMD), and data dictionary (dd). Please see the FLMD for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The model_inputs folder contains the model inputs used to drive the model simulations. The model_outputs folder contains key model output files from the river corridor model. The Rscripts folder contains the Rscripts for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures folder contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript. The model_codes folder includes key model source codes/input files. All files are .jpg, .jpeg, .out, .e, .od, .dat, .sub, .F90, .0, .R, .sbx, .cpg, .sbn, .shx, .shp, .dbf, .prj, .tfw, .tif, .xml, .pdf, or .csv.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing modelling approaches for a generic nuclear waste repository in salt

This paper contains a comparison of five modelling approaches for a simplified nuclear waste repository in a domal salt formation. It is the result of a four-year collaboration between five international teams on Task F of the DECOVALEX-2023 project on performance assessment modelling. The primary objectives of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories, and/or to bring to the fore additional research and development needed to improve PA methodologies. This work demonstrates how these objectives are accomplished through staged development and comparison of the models and methods used by participating teams in their PA frameworks. Participating teams made a wide range of model assumptions, ranging from compartmentalized networks to full 3D models of the salt formation and repository. Despite differences in the modelling strategies, all models indicate that salt compaction and diffusion of radionuclides in brine are key processes in the repository. For the isothermal spent nuclear fuel and vitrified waste scenario with multiple early failures considered, all models indicate little of the disposed radionuclides will migrate beyond the repository seal over the 100,000-year simulations. In general, the model output quantities have the largest differences over the short term and near the waste. Disparities between the models are believed to be due to differing simplifications from the conceptual model.

DECOVALEX↗
DOE OSTI2025

From sequence to protein structure and conformational dynamics with artificial intelligence/machine learning

The 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded in part for de novo protein structure prediction using AlphaFold2, an artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) model trained on vast amounts of sequence and three-dimensional structure data. AlphaFold2 and related models, including RoseTTAFold and ESMFold, employ specialized neural network architectures driven by attention mechanisms to infer relationships between sequence and structure. At a fundamental level, these AI/ML models operate on the long-standing hypothesis that the structure of a protein is determined by its amino acid sequence. More recently, AlphaFold2 has been adapted for the prediction of multiple protein conformations by subsampling multiple sequence alignments. Herein, we provide an overview of the deterministic relationship between sequence and structure, which was hypothesized over half a century ago with profound implications for the biological sciences ever since. We postulate that protein conformational dynamics are also determined, at least in part, by amino acid sequence and that this relationship may be leveraged for construction of AI/ML models dedicated to predicting protein conformational ensembles. Accordingly, we describe a conceptual model architecture, which may be trained on sequence data in combination with conformationally sensitive structural information, coming primarily from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Notwithstanding certain limitations in this context, NMR offers abundant structural heterogeneity conducive to conformational ensemble prediction. As NMR and other data continue to accumulate, sequence-informed prediction of protein structural dynamics with AI/ML has the potential to emerge as a transformative capability across the biological sciences.

Artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Package Report: Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release Model (CASWR Model)

This document describes the implementation of a solid waste form release model in GoldSim for the Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) Update. This Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release model (CASWR model) was designed to generate deterministic radionuclide release rates for Hanford’s Central Plateau solid waste disposal sites using single realizations of release model coefficients. Five generalized waste form types are used for the conceptual model of waste release: surplus reactor block, cement, soil-debris, grouted residual waste, and ancillary equipment. The surplus reactor block waste form consists of radionuclide leaching from surplus production graphite reactor core blocks via unspecified processes (White et al., 1984 as cited in PNNL-15965). The cement waste form represents solidified wastes whose permeability is much lower than that of the surrounding soil. The soil-debris waste form type is defined as unconsolidated waste mixed with soil material. Tanks and canyon complexes comprise the grouted residual waste form such that their solid waste will be grouted and capped with a surface barrier at the completion of their cleanup. Finally, the ancillary equipment waste form constitutes contaminant releases from ancillary and auxiliary waste form residues associated with tank farms at closure. Individual sub-models are implemented to numerically represent a respective waste form within the CASWR Model: Surplus Reactor Block Sub-model, Cement Sub-model, SoilDebris Sub-model, Grouted Residual Waste Sub-model, and Ancillary Equipment Submodel. Advection is assumed to be the primary transport process governing the release of radionuclides in the Ancillary Equipment and Soil-Debris Sub-models. Diffusion is assumed to be the primary release process in the Grouted Residual Waste and Cement Sub-models. An unspecified zero-order release process is considered in the Surplus Reactor Block Sub-model due to the lack of information regarding actual processes involved in irradiated graphite leaching. The Surplus Reactor Block, Cement, and SoilDebris Sub-models were compared against analytical solutions (PNNL-11800, Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the 200 Area Plateau of the Hanford Site). The agreement between results of these analytical solutions and the corresponding waste form models verified their correct implementation in GoldSim. A 1-D modeling abstraction approach for the Grouted Residual Waste and Ancillary Equipment Sub-models was adopted from existing Performance Assessment (PA) models. Despite the simplifications made in these sub-models, they were found to be appropriate representations of the waste forms, similar to what was used in the Waste Management Area C PA model (RPP-ENV-58782, Performance Assessment of Waste Management Area C, Hanford Site, Washington, Rev. 0). A sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the most influential parameters in each waste form sub-model. Suggestions for considering pH-dependent and redox-dependent release mechanisms are formulated through the development of a conditional constant approach in GoldSim.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hyporheic‐Zone Processes and Stream Oxygen Dynamics: Insights From a Multiscale Reactive Transport Model

Aquatic ecosystem metabolism encapsulates the daily fixation (gross primary production, GPP d ) and mineralization (ecosystem respiration, ER d ) of organic carbon. In fluvial systems, these are commonly estimated by inverse solutions to field observations using a model that describes oxygen concentrations varying in the water column in response to metabolic fluxes and air‐water gas exchange controlled by a rate coefficient (K 600 ). The most common conceptual model is the single‐station metabolism (SSM) model. The simplicity and flexibility of this conceptualization make it attractive; however, it implicitly assumes that all the processes that consume oxygen in fluvial systems can be lumped into a bulk estimate of respiration with poorly understood consequences for estimates of GPP d , ER d , and K 600 . Here, we focus on the implications of using SSM conceptualization when estimating metabolic fluxes from oxygen dynamics in channels where hyporheic exchange occurs. We use a new multiscale numerical model for reactive transport in streams that represents hyporheic exchange and streambed heterotrophic respiration. Nondimensionalization of this model reveals dimensionless groups that collectively control oxygen dynamics. Numerical experiments offer a mechanistic understanding of the impacts of hyporheic exchange on diel oxygen dynamics revealing that potential biases arise from neglecting mass transfer limitations. Specifically, we found that hyporheic exchange significantly affects diel oxygen dynamics, even for nonreactive streambed sediments. Moreover, while the SSM performs well in many situations, we find conditions where significant bias is produced by hyporheic exchange, even when oxygen data are well‐fitted. These situations pose a major challenge in the interpretation of metabolism assessment estimates.

Gomez‐Velez, Jesus D. [Oak Ridge National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin

Abstract. Mountain hydrology is controlled by interacting processes extending from the atmosphere through the bedrock. Integrated process models (IPMs), one of the main tools needed to interpret observations and refine conceptual models of the mountainous water cycle, require meteorological forcing that simulates the atmospheric process to predict hydroclimate then subsequently impacts surface–subsurface hydrology. Complex terrain and extreme spatial heterogeneity in mountainous environments drive uncertainty in several key considerations in IPM configurations and require further quantification and sensitivity analyses. Here, we present an IPM using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model which forces an integrated hydrologic model, ParFlow-CLM, implemented over a domain centered over the East River watershed (ERW), located in the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB). The ERW is a heavily instrumented 300 km2 region in the headwaters of the UCRB near Crested Butte, CO, with a growing atmosphere-through-bedrock observation network. Through a series of experiments in the water year 2019 (WY19), we use four meteorological forcings derived from commonly used reanalysis datasets, three subgrid-scale physics scheme configurations in WRF, and two terrain shading options within WRF to test the relative importance of these experimental design choices for key hydrometeorological metrics including precipitation and snowpack, as well as evapotranspiration, groundwater storage, and discharge simulated by the ParFlow-CLM. Our hypothesis is that uncertainty from synoptic-scale forcings produces a much larger spread in surface–subsurface hydrologic fields than subgrid-scale physics scheme choice. Results reveal that the WRF subgrid-scale physics configuration leads to larger spatiotemporal variance in simulated hydrometeorological conditions, whereas variance across meteorological forcing with common subgrid-scale physics configurations is more spatiotemporally constrained. Despite reasonably simulating precipitation, a delay in simulated discharge peak is due to a systematic cold bias across WRF simulations, suggesting the need for bias correction. Discharge shows greater variance in response to the WRF simulations across subgrid-scale physics schemes (26 %) rather than meteorological forcing (6 %). The topographic radiation option has minor effects on the watershed-average hydrometeorological processes but adds profound spatial heterogeneity to local energy budgets (±30 W m−2 in shortwave radiation and 1 K air temperature differences in late summer). This is the first presentation of sensitivity analyses that provide support to help guide the scientific community to develop observational constraints on atmosphere-through-bedrock processes and their interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗