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Scaled CMOS Technology Reliability Users Guide

The desire to assess the reliability of emerging scaled microelectronics technologies through faster reliability trials and more accurate acceleration models is the precursor for further research and experimentation in this relevant field. The effect of semiconductor scaling on microelectronics product reliability is an important aspect to the high reliability application user. From the perspective of a customer or user, who in many cases must deal with very limited, if any, manufacturer's reliability data to assess the product for a highly-reliable application, product-level testing is critical in the characterization and reliability assessment of advanced nanometer semiconductor scaling effects on microelectronics reliability. A methodology on how to accomplish this and techniques for deriving the expected product-level reliability on commercial memory products are provided.Competing mechanism theory and the multiple failure mechanism model are applied to the experimental results of scaled SDRAM products. Accelerated stress testing at multiple conditions is applied at the product level of several scaled memory products to assess the performance degradation and product reliability. Acceleration models are derived for each case. For several scaled SDRAM products, retention time degradation is studied and two distinct soft error populations are observed with each technology generation: early breakdown, characterized by randomly distributed weak bits with Weibull slope (beta)=1, and a main population breakdown with an increasing failure rate. Retention time soft error rates are calculated and a multiple failure mechanism acceleration model with parameters is derived for each technology. Defect densities are calculated and reflect a decreasing trend in the percentage of random defective bits for each successive product generation. A normalized soft error failure rate of the memory data retention time in FIT/Gb and FIT/cm2 for several scaled SDRAM generations is presented revealing a power relationship. General models describing the soft error rates across scaled product generations are presented. The analysis methodology may be applied to other scaled microelectronic products and their key parameters.

Microelectronics Reliability↗

UWB Tracking System Design for Lunar/Mars Exploration

This paper describes a design effort for a prototype ultra-wideband (UWB) tracking system that is currently under development at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). The system is being studied for use in tracking of lunar/Mars rovers during early exploration missions when satellite navigation systems are not available. The UWB technology is exploited to implement the tracking system due to its properties such as high data rate, fine time resolution, low power spectral density, and multipath immunity. A two-cluster prototype design using commercially available UWB products is proposed to implement the Angle Of Arrival (AOA) tracking methodology in this research effort. An AOA technique using the Time Difference Of Arrival (TDOA) information is utilized for location estimation in the prototype system, not only to exploit the precise time resolution possible with UWB signals, but also to eliminate the need for synchronization between the transmitter and the receiver. After the UWB radio at each cluster is used to obtain the TDOA estimates from the UWB signal sent from the target, the TDOA data is converted to AOA data to find the angle of arrival, assuming this is a far field application. Since the distance between two clusters is known, the target position is computed by a simple triangulation. Simulations show that the average tracking error at a range of 610 meters is 2.7595 meters, less than 0.5% of the tracking range. Outdoor tests to track the SCOUT vehicle (The Science Crew Operations and Utility Testbed) near the Meteor Crater, Flagstaff, Arizona were performed on September 12-13, 2005. The tracking performance was obtained with less than 1% tracking error at ranges up to 2000 feet. No RF interference with on-board GPS, video, voice and telemetry systems was detected. Outdoor tests demonstrated the UWB tracking capability.

Ni, Jianjun↗

Analysis of Automated Fault Detection and Diagnosis Records as an Indicator of HVAC Fault Prevalence: Methodology and Preliminary Results

Faults in commercial buildings can cause energy waste and other performance problems such as reduced occupant comfort, reduced equipment longevity, and increased noise. However, it is currently unknown how commonly faults occur in different equipment types. A method has been developed to estimate the prevalence of faults in air handling units, air terminal units, and rooftop units. This method includes two types of data. The first is data from several automated fault detection and diagnostics (AFDD) software technologies. This type of data provides a large sample that represents a wide range of building types, geographical locations, and equipment types. It includes fault diagnoses from thousands of buildings around the United States, as well as anonymized metadata describing the building and equipment characteristics. The number of fault records is in the order of 107. However, despite the size and richness of the data sample, this data contains some degree of inaccuracy, i.e., false positive and false negative findings. Therefore, the study includes a second type of data, coming from manual inspection of buildings that have had the same AFDD methods applied to them (from the commercial AFDD offerings). Since the field tests are conducted in buildings with AFDD-generated fault prevalence data, they can be combined with the larger sample size to provide insight into the potential biases or lower sensitivity of the AFDD data. Once a library of fault prevalence data is built, it will be studied to provide further insight into the drivers of fault prevalence, for example, whether prevalence is correlated with building type, geographical location (which is tied to climate and to utility rates), building size, etc. This paper describes the methods developed for this study and illustrates them with preliminary data. It discusses some of the challenges of harmonizing disparate outputs from multiple AFDD vendors, application of a unifying fault taxonomy, and fault prevalence metrics.

Ebrahimi Fakhar, Amir↗

A Physics-Based Modeling Framework for Prognostic Studies

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) methodologies have emerged as one of the key enablers for achieving efficient system level maintenance as part of a busy operations schedule, and lowering overall life cycle costs. PHM is also emerging as a high-priority issue in critical applications, where the focus is on conducting fundamental research in the field of integrated systems health management. The term diagnostics relates to the ability to detect and isolate faults or failures in a system. Prognostics on the other hand is the process of predicting health condition and remaining useful life based on current state, previous conditions and future operating conditions. PHM methods combine sensing, data collection, interpretation of environmental, operational, and performance related parameters to indicate systems health under its actual application conditions. The development of prognostics methodologies for the electronics field has become more important as more electrical systems are being used to replace traditional systems in several applications in the aeronautics, maritime, and automotive fields. The development of prognostics methods for electronics presents several challenges due to the great variety of components used in a system, a continuous development of new electronics technologies, and a general lack of understanding of how electronics fail. Similarly with electric unmanned aerial vehicles, electrichybrid cars, and commercial passenger aircraft, we are witnessing a drastic increase in the usage of batteries to power vehicles. However, for battery-powered vehicles to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. We develop an electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable accuracy for reliable EOD prediction in a variety of usage profiles.

Li-ion Batteries↗

Fiber optic system for direct detection of CO 2 leakage in carbon storage wells (Abbreviated Final Report)

The feasibility study focused on the development of new fiber for distributed chemical sensing that will allow direct detection of CO2 leakages in the environment. This is particularly important for monitoring well integrity for carbon capture and storage (CSS), which can provide early warning for an incoming well failure and potential CO2 leaking through it. We proposed Raman or IR interrogation within gas-filled Holey Fibers (HoFs) interleaved with Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) sections, so that the location and concentration of the gases would be provided simultaneously. The methodology would overcome current roadblocks to using fiber optics for CO2 (and other gases) detection in wells with direct in-situ measurements of concentration along with other important parameters such as temperature and pressure. We were able to assess commercially available IR/Raman hollow core fiber and demonstrated detection of CO2 through them in our controlled environment setups at various pressure conditions. We have also established the ability of drilling precisely with fs-lases side holes to enable penetration of CO2 into the hollow core fiber and reduce diffusion rates. Open joint collars were also explored with double functionality: to obtain splice to solid core fiber critical for field deployment and create gas ingress locations. Both diffusion-only and pressurized fiber system have been constructed following COMSOL based semi-hybrid optical /fluidodynamics models. FBGs have been identified and procured and characterized. Along the work we leveraged internal modeling/design, photonics/laser characterization, optical fiber fabrication, and AM lab capabilities to design, develop and test in-house components or assemblies. Our results indicate the potential of HoF for CO2 downhole direct detection.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Purifying, Separating, and Concentrating Cells From a Sample Low in Biomass

Frequently there is an inability to process and analyze samples of low biomass due to limiting amounts of relevant biomaterial in the sample. Furthermore, molecular biological protocols geared towards increasing the density of recovered cells and biomolecules of interest, by their very nature, also concentrate unwanted inhibitory humic acids and other particulates that have an adversarial effect on downstream analysis. A novel and robust fluorescence-activated cell-sorting (FACS)-based technology has been developed for purifying (removing cells from sampling matrices), separating (based on size, density, morphology), and concentrating cells (spores, prokaryotic, eukaryotic) from a sample low in biomass. The technology capitalizes on fluorescent cell-sorting technologies to purify and concentrate bacterial cells from a low-biomass, high-volume sample. Over the past decade, cell-sorting detection systems have undergone enhancements and increased sensitivity, making bacterial cell sorting a feasible concept. Although there are many unknown limitations with regard to the applicability of this technology to environmental samples (smaller cells, few cells, mixed populations), dogmatic principles support the theoretical effectiveness of this technique upon thorough testing and proper optimization. Furthermore, the pilot study from which this report is based proved effective and demonstrated this technology capable of sorting and concentrating bacterial endospore and bacterial cells of varying size and morphology. Two commercial off-the-shelf bacterial counting kits were used to optimize a bacterial stain/dye FACS protocol. A LIVE/DEAD BacLight Viability and Counting Kit was used to distinguish between the live and dead cells. A Bacterial Counting Kit comprising SYTO BC (mixture of SYTO dyes) was employed as a broad-spectrum bacterial counting agent. Optimization using epifluorescence microscopy was performed with these two dye/stains. This refined protocol was further validated using varying ratios and mixtures of cells to ensure homogenous staining compared to that of individual cells, and were utilized for flow analyzer and FACS labeling. This technology focuses on the purification and concentration of cells from low-biomass spacecraft assembly facility samples. Currently, purification and concentration of low-biomass samples plague planetary protection downstream analyses. Having a capability to use flow cytometry to concentrate cells out of low-biomass, high-volume spacecraft/ facility sample extracts will be of extreme benefit to the fields of planetary protection and astrobiology. Successful research and development of this novel methodology will significantly increase the knowledge base for designing more effective cleaning protocols, and ultimately lead to a more empirical and true account of the microbial diversity present on spacecraft surfaces. Refined cleaning and an enhanced ability to resolve microbial diversity may decrease the overall cost of spacecraft assembly and/or provide a means to begin to assess challenging planetary protection missions.

Benardini, James N.↗

Multi-Gas Sensors for Enhanced Reliability of SOFC Operation

GE Research, in partnership with SUNY Polytechnic Institute (SUNY Poly), designed, built, and tested gas sensors for in situ monitoring of H 2 and CO anode tail gases produced with on-site steam reforming in solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) systems. The knowledge of the H 2 /CO ratio of these anode tail gases should allow accurate determination and control of the efficiency of the reforming process in the SOFC system and should deliver a lower operating cost for SOFC customers. The project objectives were to achieve multi-gas monitoring capability with a single multivariable sensor, and to sustain this performance in the presence of gaseous interferences and a potential poison for the sensor. The duration of the project was 24 months with the project structure that included three technical tasks such as (1) development of design rules of photonic nanostructures for H 2 and CO gas detection, (2) laboratory validation of photonic nanostructures for selective H 2 and CO gas detection, and (3) validation of photonic nanostructures for initial stability and poison-resistance against H 2 S. To build multivariable sensors for selective H 2 and CO gas detection in the presence of interferences, we expanded our earlier knowledge of multi-gas sensors into new fabrication and functionalization methodologies as well as into new methodologies for the spectral data analysis of multi-gas responses. We have advanced our design rules of the three-dimensional (3D) photonic nanostructures that allowed detection of H 2 and CO at high temperatures as individual gases and as their mixtures and rejection of interferences such as CO 2 , H 2 O, CH 4 , and other hydrocarbons for SOFC applications. Our advanced design rules should be attractive for building the new generation of cost-effective industrial sensors. Stability and poison resistance of our 3D photonic nanostructures was tested in the laboratory conditions. While initially we utilized conventional machine learning data analysis tools, we have found that they were unable to correct for the sensor drift. Thus, we have implemented new methods of machine learning for the analysis of our spectral data. These learnings pave the way to move the future studies into advanced testing of effects of interferences, aging and field tests. In future, our work will continue to advance our sensing designs to operate in conditions with known and unknown interferences by implementing nanostructures with enhanced spectral diversity of responses to gaseous species of interest and interferences. Our systematic reduction of technical risks in this completed project and in future studies will ensure transition of this sensing technology to commercialization.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Interlaminar shear test method development for long term durability testing of composites

The high speed civil transport is a commercial aircraft that is expected to carry 300 passengers at Mach 2.4 over a range of more than 6000 nautical miles. With the existing commercial structural material technology (i.e., aluminum) the performance characteristics of the high speed civil transport would not be realized. Therefore there has been a concerted effort in the development of light weight materials capable of withstanding elevated temperatures for long duration. Thermoplastic composite materials are such candidate materials and the understanding of how these materials perform over the long term under harsh environments is essential to safe and effective design. The matrix dominated properties of thermoplastic composites are most affected by both time and temperature. There is currently an effort to perform short term testing to predict long term behavior of in-plane mechanical properties E22 (transverse modulus of elasticity) and G12 (shear modulus). Out-of-plane properties such as E33, G13, and G23 are inherently more difficult to characterize. This is especially true for the out-of-plane shear modulus G23 and hence there is no existing acceptable standard test method. Since G23 is the most matrix dominated property, it is essential that a test method be developed. A shear test methodology is developed to do just that. The test method, called the double notched specimen, along with the previously developed shear gage was tested at room temperature. Mechanical testing confirmed the attributes of the methodology. A finite element parametric study was conducted for specimen optimization. Moire interferometry, a high sensitivity laser optical method, was used for full-field analysis of the specimen. From this work, material parameters will be determined and thus enable the prediction of long term material behavior of laminates subjected to general loading states.

Ifju, Peter G.↗

Analysis of Transient Pressure and Rate Data in a Complex of Enhanced Oil Recovery Fields in Northern Michigan

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. A key activity of the MRCSP monitoring program was to continuously monitor the CO 2 injection and bottom-hole reservoir pressure in the injection wells and selected monitoring wells in the study reefs from 2013 through 2019. During the monitoring period, which varied from reef to reef, the reefs were undergoing one or more phases of development, such as CO 2 injection without hydrocarbon production, CO 2 injection with production Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), production without CO 2 injection, and idle (no injection or production) in pressure depleted condition. A multi-year record of reservoir pressure and injection rate data are available for one or more wells for each reef for analysis. This report discusses the methodology and results of various types of analyses performed with this data, with the primary objective of characterizing the in-situ permeability of the formation of interest.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Vibration-Based Data Used to Detect Cracks in Rotating Disks

Rotor health monitoring and online damage detection are increasingly gaining the interest of aircraft engine manufacturers. This is primarily due to the fact that there is a necessity for improved safety during operation as well as a need for lower maintenance costs. Applied techniques for the damage detection and health monitoring of rotors are essential for engine safety, reliability, and life prediction. Recently, the United States set the ambitious goal of reducing the fatal accident rate for commercial aviation by 80 percent within 10 years. In turn, NASA, in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration, other Federal agencies, universities, and the airline and aircraft industries, responded by developing the Aviation Safety Program. This program provides research and technology products needed to help the aerospace industry achieve their aviation safety goal. The Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Group of the Optical Instrumentation Technology Branch at the NASA Glenn Research Center is currently developing propulsion-system-specific technologies to detect damage prior to catastrophe under the propulsion health management task. Currently, the NDE group is assessing the feasibility of utilizing real-time vibration data to detect cracks in turbine disks. The data are obtained from radial blade-tip clearance and shaft-clearance measurements made using capacitive or eddy-current probes. The concept is based on the fact that disk cracks distort the strain field within the component. This, in turn, causes a small deformation in the disk's geometry as well as a possible change in the system's center of mass. The geometric change and the center of mass shift can be indirectly characterized by monitoring the amplitude and phase of the first harmonic (i.e., the 1 component) of the vibration data. Spin pit experiments and full-scale engine tests have been conducted while monitoring for crack growth with this detection methodology. Even so, published data are extremely limited, and the basic foundation of the methodology has not been fully studied. The NDE group is working on developing this foundation on the basis of theoretical modeling as well as experimental data by using the newly constructed subscale spin system shown in the preceding photograph. This, in turn, involved designing an optimal sub-scale disk that was meant to represent a full-scale turbine disk; conducting finite element analyses of undamaged and damaged disks to define the disk's deformation and the resulting shift in center of mass; and creating a rotordynamic model of the complete disk and shaft assembly to confirm operation beyond the first critical concerning the subscale experimental setup. The finite element analysis data, defining the center of mass shift due to disk damage, are shown. As an example, the change in the center of mass for a disk spinning at 8000 rpm with a 0.963-in. notch was 1.3 x 10(exp -4) in. The actual vibration response of an undamaged disk as well as the theoretical response of a cracked disk is shown. Experiments with cracked disks are continuing, and new approaches for analyzing the captured vibration data are being developed to better detect damage in a rotor. In addition, the subscale spin system is being used to test the durability and sensitivity of new NDE sensors that focus on detecting localized damage. This is designed to supplement the global response of the crack-detection methodology described here.

Gyekenyesi, Andrew L.↗

System-Level Experimental Validations for Supersonic Commercial Transport Aircraft Entering Service in the 2018-2020 Time Period

This report describes the work conducted under NASA funding for the Boeing N+2 Supersonic Experimental Validation project to experimentally validate the conceptual design of a supersonic airliner feasible for entry into service in the 2018 -to 2020 timeframe (NASA N+2 generation). The primary goal of the project was to develop a low-boom configuration optimized for minimum sonic boom signature (65 to 70 PLdB). This was a very aggressive goal that could be achieved only through integrated multidisciplinary optimization tools validated in relevant ground and, later, flight environments. The project was split into two phases. Phase I of the project covered the detailed aerodynamic design of a low boom airliner as well as the wind tunnel tests to validate that design (ref. 1). This report covers Phase II of the project, which continued the design methodology development of Phase I with a focus on the propulsion integration aspects as well as the testing involved to validate those designs. One of the major airplane configuration features of the Boeing N+2 low boom design was the overwing nacelle. The location of the nacelle allowed for a minimal effect on the boom signature, however, it added a level of difficulty to designing an inlet with acceptable performance in the overwing flow field. Using the Phase I work as the starting point, the goals of the Phase 2 project were to design and verify inlet performance while maintaining a low-boom signature. The Phase II project was successful in meeting all contract objectives. New modular nacelles were built for the larger Performance Model along with a propulsion rig with an electrically-actuated mass flow plug. Two new mounting struts were built for the smaller Boom Model, along with new nacelles. Propulsion integration testing was performed using an instrumented fan face and a mass flow plug, while boom signatures were measured using a wall-mounted pressure rail. A side study of testing in different wind tunnels was completed as a precursor to the selection of the facilities used for validation testing. As facility schedules allowed, the propulsion testing was done at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) 8 x 6-Foot wind tunnel, while boom and force testing was done at the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) 9 x 7-Foot wind tunnel. During boom testing, a live balance was used for gathering force data. This report is broken down into nine sections. The first technical section (Section 2) covers the general scope of the Phase II activities, goals, a description of the design and testing efforts, and the project plan and schedule. Section 3 covers the details of the propulsion system concepts and design evolution. A series of short tests to evaluate the suitability of different wind tunnels for boom, propulsion, and force testing was also performed under the Phase 2 effort, with the results covered in Section 4. The propulsion integration testing is covered in Section 5 and the boom and force testing in Section 6. CFD comparisons and analyses are included in Section 7. Section 8 includes the conclusions and lessons learned.

Magee, Todd E.↗

Dissertation Defense: Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional validation by test only mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions.Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations. This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System spacecraft system.Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Fluid Dynamics↗

Dissertation Defense Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional "validation by test only" mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

CFD↗

Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This proposal describes an approach to validate the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft. The research described here is absolutely cutting edge. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional"validation by test only'' mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computationaf Fluid Dynamics can be used to veritY these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. The proposed research project includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT and OPEN FOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid . . . Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. To date, the author is the only person to look at the uncertainty in the entire computational domain. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, threedimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Groves, Curtis E.↗

Impacts of Model Building Energy Codes

The Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program (BECP) periodically evaluates national and state-level impacts associated with energy codes in residential and commercial buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), funded by DOE, conducted an assessment of the prospective impacts of national model building energy codes from 2010 through 2040. A previous PNNL study evaluated the impact of the Building Energy Codes Program. A 2016 study looked more broadly at overall code impacts and this report describes the methodology used for the assessment and presents the impacts in terms of energy savings, consumer cost savings, and reduced emissions at the state level and at aggregated levels. In 2021, DOE conducted an interim and limited update to its 2016 study to evaluate potential building code updates using the 2016 methodology. That interim update includes estimated savings resulting from updates to the model energy codes, including the ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2016 (ASHRAE 90.1-2016) and 2019 editions, as well as the 2018 and 2021 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). In 2023, DOE developed a fully updated report that includes code updates (ASHRAE 90.1-2019 and 2021 IECC), as well as additional enhancements and updates, including updated energy prices, annual floorspace additions, state code adoption dates, and emission factors, among others. This current version is another fully updated report that includes code updates (ASHRAE 90.1-2022 and 2024 IECC), as well as additional enhancements and updates, including updated energy prices, state code adoption dates, emission factors, and renewable energy contribution among others. Energy codes follow a three-phase cycle that starts with the development of a new model code, proceeds with the adoption of the new code by states and local jurisdictions, and finishes when the new code is implemented and builders, architects, and engineers are required to comply with the new provisions. The development of new model code editions creates the potential for increased energy savings. After a new model code is adopted, potential savings are realized in the field when new buildings (or additions and alterations) are constructed to comply with the new code. The contributions of all three phases are crucial to the overall impact of codes and are considered in this assessment. Figure ES.1 schematically describes the analysis framework. Energy savings are expressed in terms of energy use intensity (EUI) in the figure.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Computational mechanics needs study

In order to assess the needs in computational mechanics over the next decade, we formulated a questionnaire and contacted computational mechanics researchers and users in industry, government, and academia. As expected, we found a wide variety of computational mechanics usage and research. This report outlines the activity discussed with those contacts, as well as that in our own organizations. It should be noted that most of the contacts were made before the recent decline of the defense industry. Therefore, areas which are strongly defense-oriented may decrease in relative importance. In order to facilitate updating of this study, names of a few key researchers in each area are included as starting points for future literature surveys. These lists of names are not intended to represent those persons doing the best research in that area, nor are they intended to be comprehensive. They are, as previously stated, offered as starting points for future literature searches. Overall, there is currently a broad activity in computational mechanics in this country, with the breadth and depth increasing as more sophisticated software and faster computers become more available. The needs and desires of the workers in this field are as diverse as their background and organizational products. There seems to be some degree of software development in any organization (although the level of activity is highly variable from one organization to another) which has any research component in its mission. It seems, however, that there is considerable use of commercial software in almost all organizations. In most industrial research organizations, it appears that very little actual software development is contracted out, but that most is done in-house, using a mixture of funding sources. Government agencies vary widely in the ratio of in-house to out-house ratio. There is a considerable amount of experimental verification in most, but not all, organizations. Generally, the amount of experimental verification is more than we expected. Of all the survey contacts, one or two believe that the resources they are allocated are sufficient, but most do not. Some believe they have only half the resources they need. Some see their resource deficits as short-term, while others see it as a trend which will continue or perhaps worsen. The pessimism is stronger in the defense and aerospace industry. When considering only the nonlinear development efforts, there appears to be an even mix of geometric and material nonlinearity. There is not much particular emphasis in linear analysis unless it is in extension of current analysis capabilities to larger problems. The primary exception is concern about modeling of composites, where proven methodologies have trailed element and computer hardware development. Most of the people we spoke to use finite element techniques, but there is some finite difference and boundary element work ongoing. There is also some interest in multiple methods. Coupling of finite elements and boundary elements appears to be of high interest, since the two analysis types are complementary.

Griffin, O. Hayden, Jr.↗

Assessing Methodologies for Detecting Water Intrusion in Wall Systems: Phase 2

Studies by the University of Florida, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Housing (HUD) have revealed that there is a substantial fraction of commercial and residential buildings that have been exposed to moisture resulting in damage or durability problems. Water intrusion into building envelope components leads to a variety of undesirable conditions such as mold, wood rot, corrosion, and aesthetic damage. Tests methods that are presently used to evaluate the amount of water intrusion into a building envelope component are usually qualitative in nature. For example, ASTM E 331, Standard Test Method for Water Penetration of Exterior Windows, Curtain Walls, and Doors by Uniform Static Air Pressure Difference requires that you “observe and record points of water leakage, if any.” This test was originally developed to assess the performance of fenestration products but is commonly adapted to evaluate other enclosure assemblies. However, when it is typically used for walls, this procedure is limited to recognizing if the moisture is visually observable from the backside side of the sheathing. It does not address moisture that is absorbed in the layers of the building envelope component, which could impact the durability of the assembly. Clearly a quantitative means of determining water penetration would improve the quality of this type of test and assist with better understanding the resultant impact on enclosure assemblies. In 2018-20, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in conjunction with the Air Barrier Association of America, initiated a research project to address this issue. The purpose of that study was to evaluate nine different methods of detecting moisture intrusion through a wall assembly. air and water barrier. The wall assemblies included metal frame construction faced with gypsum sheathing and both self-adhered and fluid applied air and water barriers (AWB) were evaluated for this exercise. This project did not test the efficacy of the different AWBs, rather, fasteners were purposely installed in various ways to foster water penetration and activate the different methods of detection. Each detection method was evaluated for five features that included simplicity of use, cost of implementation, whether the method was quantitative or subjective, accuracy, and applicability. A scale of green/yellow/red was used to assess each feature where green was acceptable, yellow was borderline, and red was not to be pursued at this time. This report covers additional research that has been undertaken to extend the activities initiated in this earlier project with refinements for specific detection methods and considerations for expansion related to field versus laboratory testing standards.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration: Phase III (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.

02 PETROLEUM↗