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NASA NTRS1990

Preparing technicians for engineering materials technology

A long held principle is that for every engineer and scientist there is a need for ten technicians to maximize the efficiency of the technology team for meeting needs of industry and government. Developing an adequate supply of technicians to meet the requirements of the materials related industry will be a challenge and difficult to accomplish. A variety of agencies feel the need and wish to support development of engineering materials technology programs. In a joint effort among Battelle Laboratories, the Department of Energy (DOE) and Northwest College and University Association for Science (NORCUS), the development of an engineering materials technology program for vocational programs and community colleges for the Pacific Northwest Region was recently completed. This effort has implications for a national model. The model Associate of Applied Science degree in Engineering Materials Technology shown provides a general structure. It purposely has course titles which need delimiting while also including a core of courses necessary to develop cognitive, affective and psychomotor skills with the underlining principles of math, science and technology so students have job entry skills, and so that students can learn about and adapt to evolving technology.

Jacobs, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Utilizing the ISS Mission as a Testbed to Develop Cognitive Communications Systems

The ISS provides an excellent opportunity for pioneering artificial intelligence software to meet the challenges of real-time communications (comm) link management. This opportunity empowers the ISS Program to forge a testbed for developing cognitive communications systems for the benefit of the ISS mission, manned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) science programs and future planetary exploration programs. In November, 1998, the Flight Operations Directorate (FOD) started the ISS Antenna Manager (IAM) project to develop a single processor supporting multiple comm satellite tracking for two different antenna systems. Further, the processor was developed to be highly adaptable as it supported the ISS mission through all assembly stages. The ISS mission mandated communications specialists with complete knowledge of when the ISS was about to lose or gain comm link service. The current specialty mandated cognizance of large sun-tracking solar arrays and thermal management panels in addition to the highly-dynamic satellite service schedules and rise/set tables. This mission requirement makes the ISS the ideal communications management analogue for future LEO space station and long-duration planetary exploration missions. Future missions, with their precision-pointed, dynamic, laser-based comm links, require complete autonomy for managing high-data rate communications systems. Development of cognitive communications management systems that permit any crew member or payload science specialist, regardless of experience level, to control communications is one of the greater benefits the ISS can offer new space exploration programs. The IAM project met a new mission requirement never previously levied against US space-born communications systems management: process and display the orientation of large solar arrays and thermal control panels based on real-time joint angle telemetry. However, IAM leaves the actual communications availability assessment to human judgement, which introduces unwanted variability because each specialist has a different core of experience with comm link performance. Because the ISS utilizes two different frequency bands, dynamic structure can be occasionally translucent at one frequency while it can completely interdict service at the other frequency. The impact of articulating structure on the comm link can depend on its orientation at the time it impinges on the link. It can become easy for a human specialist to cross-associate experience at one frequency with experience at the other frequency. Additionally, the specialist's experience is incremental, occurring one nine-hour shift at a time. Only the IAM processor experiences the complete 24x7x365 communications link performance for both communications links but, it has no "learning capability." If the IAM processor could be endowed with a cognitive ability to remember past structure-induced comm link outages, based on its knowledge of the ISS position, attitude, communications gear, array joint angles and tracking accuracy, it could convey such experience to the human operator. It could also use its learned communications link behaviors to accurately convey the availability of future communications sessions. Further, the tool could remember how accurately or inaccurately it predicted availability and correct future predictions based on past performance. The IAM tool could learn frequency-specific impacts due to spacecraft structures and pass that information along as "experience." Such development would provide a single artificial intelligence processor that could provide two different experience bases. If it also "knew" the satellite service schedule, it could distinguish structure blockage from schedule or planet blockage and then quickly switch to another satellite. Alternatively, just as a human operator could judge, a cognizant comm system based on the IAM model could "know" that the blockage is not going to last very long and continue tracking a comm satellite, waiting for it to track away from structure. Ultimately, once this capability was fully developed and tested in the Mission Control Center, it could be transferred on-orbit to support development of operations concepts that include more advanced cognitive communications systems. Future applications of this capability are easily foreseen because even more dynamic satellite constellations with more nodes and greater capability are coming. Currently, the ISS fully employs its high-data-rate return link for harvesting payload science. In the coming months, it will double that data rate and is forecast to fully utilize that capability. Already there is talk of an upgrade that quadruples the current data rate allocated to ISS payload science before the end of its mission and laser comm links have already been tested from the ISS. Every data rate upgrade mandates more complicated and sensitive communications equipment which implies greater expertise invested in the human operator. Future on-orbit cognizant comm systems will be needed to meet greater performance demands aboard larger, far more complicated spacecraft. In the LEO environment, the old-style one-satellite-per-spacecraft operations concept will give way to a new concept of a single customer spacecraft simultaneously using multiple comm satellites. Much more highly-dynamic manned LEO missions with decades of crew members potentially increase the demand for communications link performance. A cognizant on-board communications system will meet advanced communications demands from future LEO missions and future planetary missions. The ISS has fledgling components of future exploration programs, both LEO and planetary. Further, the Flight Operations Directorate, through the IAM project, has already begun to develop a communications management system that attempts to solve advanced problems ideally represented by dynamic structure impacting scheduled satellite service. With an earnest project to integrate artificial intelligence into the IAM processor, the ISS Program could develop a cognizant communications system that could be adapted and transferred to future on-orbit avionics designs.

Jackson, Dan↗

NASA NTRS2016

Utilizing the ISS Mission as a Testbed to Develop Cognitive Communications Systems

The ISS provides an excellent opportunity for pioneering artificial intelligence software to meet the challenges of real-time communications (comm) link management. This opportunity empowers the ISS Program to forge a testbed for developing cognitive communications systems for the benefit of the ISS mission, manned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) science programs and future planetary exploration programs. In November, 1998, the Flight Operations Directorate (FOD) started the ISS Antenna Manager (IAM) project to develop a single processor supporting multiple comm satellite tracking for two different antenna systems. Further, the processor was developed to be highly adaptable as it supported the ISS mission through all assembly stages. The ISS mission mandated communications specialists with complete knowledge of when the ISS was about to lose or gain comm link service. The current specialty mandated cognizance of large sun-tracking solar arrays and thermal management panels in addition to the highly-dynamic satellite service schedules and rise/set tables. This mission requirement makes the ISS the ideal communications management analogue for future LEO space station and long-duration planetary exploration missions. Future missions, with their precision-pointed, dynamic, laser-based comm links, require complete autonomy for managing high-data rate communications systems. Development of cognitive communications management systems that permit any crew member or payload science specialist, regardless of experience level, to control communications is one of the greater benefits the ISS can offer new space exploration programs. The IAM project met a new mission requirement never previously levied against US space-born communications systems management: process and display the orientation of large solar arrays and thermal control panels based on real-time joint angle telemetry. However, IAM leaves the actual communications availability assessment to human judgment, which introduces unwanted variability because each specialist has a different core of experience with comm link performance. Because the ISS utilizes two different frequency bands, dynamic structure can be occasionally translucent at one frequency while it can completely interdict service at the other frequency. The impact of articulating structure on the comm link can depend on its orientation at the time it impinges on the link. It can become easy for a human specialist to cross-associate experience at one frequency with experience at the other frequency. Additionally, the specialist's experience is incremental, occurring one nine-hour shift at a time. Only the IAM processor experiences the complete 24x7x365 communications link performance for both communications links but, it has no "learning capability." If the IAM processor could be endowed with a cognitive ability to remember past structure-induced comm link outages, based on its knowledge of the ISS position, attitude, communications gear, array joint angles and tracking accuracy, it could convey such experience to the human operator. It could also use its learned communications link behaviors to accurately convey the availability of future communications sessions. Further, the tool could remember how accurately or inaccurately it predicted availability and correct future predictions based on past performance. The IAM tool could learn frequency-specific impacts due to spacecraft structures and pass that information along as "experience." Such development would provide a single artificial intelligence processor that could provide two different experience bases. If it also "knew" the satellite service schedule, it could distinguish structure blockage from schedule or planet blockage and then quickly switch to another satellite. Alternatively, just as a human operator could judge, a cognizant comm system based on the IAM model could "know" that the blockage is not going to last very long and continue tracking a comm satellite, waiting for it to track away from structure. Ultimately, once this capability was fully developed and tested in the Mission Control Center, it could be transferred on-orbit to support development of operations concepts that include more advanced cognitive communications systems. Future applications of this capability are easily foreseen because even more dynamic satellite constellations with more nodes and greater capability are coming. Currently, the ISS fully employs a 300 million bit-per-second (Mbps) return link for harvesting payload science. In the coming eighteen months, it will step up to 600 Mbps. Already there is talk of a 1.2 billion bit-per-second (Gbps) upgrade for the ISS and laser comm links have already been tested from the ISS. Every data rate upgrade mandates more complicated and sensitive communications equipment which implies greater expertise invested in the human operator. Future on-orbit cognizant comm systems will be needed to meet greater performance demands aboard larger, far more complicated spacecraft. In the LEO environment, the old-style one-satellite-per-spacecraft operations concept will give way to a new concept of a single customer spacecraft simultaneously using multiple comm satellites. Much more highly-dynamic manned LEO missions with decades of crew members potentially increase the demand for communications link performance. A cognizant on-board communications system will meet advanced communications demands from future LEO missions and future planetary missions. The ISS has fledgling components of future exploration programs, both LEO and planetary. Further, the Flight Operations Directorate, through the IAM project, has already begun to develop a communications management system that attempts to solve advanced problems ideally represented by dynamic structure impacting scheduled satellite service. With an earnest project to integrate artificial intelligence into the IAM processor, the ISS Program could develop a cognizant communications system that could be adapted and transferred to future on-orbit avionics designs.

Jackson, Dan↗

NASA NTRS2017

Behavioral Health and Performance Laboratory Standard Measures (BHP-SM)

The Spaceflight Standard Measures is a NASA Johnson Space Center Human Research Project (HRP) project that proposes to collect a set of core measurements, representative of many of the human spaceflight risks, from astronauts before, during and after long-duration International Space Station (ISS) missions. The term "standard measures" is defined as a set of core measurements, including physiological, biochemical, psychosocial, cognitive, and functional, that are reliable, valid, and accepted in terrestrial science, are associated with a specific and measurable outcome known to occur as a consequence of spaceflight, that will be collected in a standardized fashion from all (or most) crewmembers. While such measures might be used to define standards of health and performance or readiness for flight, the prime intent in their collection is to allow longitudinal analysis of multiple parameters in order to answer a variety of operational, occupational, and research-based questions. These questions are generally at a high level, and the approach for this project is to populate the standard measures database with the smallest set of data necessary to indicate further detailed research is required. Also included as standard measures are parameters that are not outcome-based in and of-themselves, but provide ancillary information that supports interpretation of the outcome measures, e.g., nutritional assessment, vehicle environmental parameters, crew debriefs, etc. The project's main aim is to ensure that an optimized minimal set of measures is consistently captured from all ISS crewmembers until the end of Station in order to characterize the human in space. -This allows the HRP to identify, establish, and evaluate a common set of measures for use in spaceflight and analog research to: develop baselines, systematically characterize risk likelihood and consequences, and assess effectiveness of countermeasures that work for behavioral health and performance risk factors. -By standardizing the battery of measures on all crewmembers, it will allow the HRP to evaluate countermeasures that work for one physiological system and ensure another system is not negatively affected. -These measures, named "Standard Measures," will serve as a data repository and be available to other studies under data sharing agreements.

Williams, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Entrepreneurial Aspirations

Recom Technologies, Inc., was established in 1980 by Jack Lee, a former NASA contractor. After forming the new company, Recom was awarded NASA contracts, which eventually grew to 50 percent of the company's business. Two companies have spun-off from Recom, both of which have their basis in NASA technology. The first is Attention Control Systems, Inc. with utilizes intelligent planning software that Recom developed for NASA Ames Computational Sciences Division in a hand-held planner used as an aid in cognitive rehabilitation of brain injury patients. The second is MiraNet, Inc. who uses CLIPS as the foundation for WEXpert, the first rules based help system on the Web.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2014

MDO and Cross-Disciplinary Practice in R&D: A Portrait of Principles and Current Practice

For several decades, Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) has served an important role in aerospace engineering by incorporating physics based disciplinary models into integrated system or sub-system models for use in research, development, (R&D) and design. This paper examines MDO's role in facilitating the integration of the researchers from different single disciplines during R&D and early design of large-scale complex engineered systems (LaCES) such as aerospace systems. The findings in this paper are summarized from a larger study on interdisciplinary practices and perspectives that included considerable empirical data from surveys, interviews, and ethnography. The synthesized findings were derived by integrating the data with theories from organization science and engineering. The over-arching finding is that issues related to cognition, organization, and social interrelations mostly dominate interactions across disciplines. Engineering issues, such as the integration of hardware or physics-based models, are not as significant. Correspondingly, the data showed that MDO is not the primary integrator of researchers working across disciplines during R&D and early design of LaCES. Cognitive focus such as analysis versus design, organizational challenges such as incentives, and social opportunities such as personal networks often drove the human interactive practices among researchers from different disciplines. Facilitation of the inherent confusion, argument, and learning in crossdisciplinary research was identified as one of several needed elements of enabling successful research across disciplines.

Rivas McGowan, Anna-Maria↗

NASA NTRS1999

Concept Mapping as a Support for Mars Landing-Site Selection

The NASA Ames' Center for Mars Exploration (CMEX) serves to coordinate Mars programmatic research at ARC in the sciences, in information technology and in aero-assist and other technologies. Most recently, CMEX has been working with the Institute for Human and Machine Cognition at the University of West Florida to develop a new kind of web browser based on the application of concept maps. These Cmaps, which are demonstrably effective in science teaching, can be used to provide a new kind of information navigation tool that can make web or CD based information more meaningful and more easily navigable. CMEX expects that its 1999 CD-ROM will have this new user interface. CMEX is also engaged with the Mars Surveyor Project Office at JPL in developing an Internet-based source of materials to support the process of selecting landing sites for the next series of Mars landers. This activity -- identifying the most promising sites from which to return samples relevant to the search for evidence of life -- is one that is expected to engage the general public as well as the science community. To make the landing site data easily accessible and meaningful to the public, CMEX is planning to use the IHMC Cmap browser as its user interface.

Cabrol, Nathalie A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Cognitive Communications for NASA Space Systems

The growing complexity of spacecraft constellations, communication relay offerings, and mission architectures drives the need for the development of autonomous communication systems. NASA has traditionally launched single spacecraft missions that are served by the Space Communication and Navigation (SCaN) program. Operations on SCaN networks are typically scheduled weeks in advance, and often each asset serves a single user spacecraft at a time. Recent movement towards swarm missions could make the current approach unsustainable. Additionally, the integration of commercial communication service providers will substantially increase the data transfer options available to new missions. NASA science missions have found benefit in launching swarms of spacecraft, allowing coordinated simultaneous observations from different perspectives. Inter-spacecraft communication (mesh networking) is an enabler for this architecture, as are CubeSats that allow cost-effective provisioning of distributed mission assets. As more complex swarm missions launch, one challenge is coordinating communication within the swarm and choosing the appropriate mechanism for telemetry, tracking, control, and data services to and from Earth. Cognitive communications research conducted by SCaN aims to mitigate the increasing communication complexity for mission users by increasing the autonomy of links, networks, and service scheduling. By considering automation techniques including recent advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning, cognitive algorithms and related approaches enable increased mission science return, improved resource utilization for service provider networks, and resiliency in unpredictable or unplanned environments. The Cognitive Communications Project at the NASA Glenn Research Center develops applications of data-driven, non-deterministic methods to improve the autonomy of space communication. The project emphasizes development of decentralized space networks with artificial intelligence agents optimizing communication link throughput, data routing, and system-wide asset management. This paper discusses the objectives, approaches, and opportunities of the research to address growing needs of the space communications community.

Chelmins, David↗

NASA NTRS2016

Architecture for Cognitive Networking within NASAs Future Space Communications Infrastructure

Future space mission concepts and designs pose many networking challenges for command, telemetry, and science data applications with diverse end-to-end data delivery needs. For future end-to-end architecture designs, a key challenge is meeting expected application quality of service requirements for multiple simultaneous mission data flows with options to use diverse onboard local data buses, commercial ground networks, and multiple satellite relay constellations in LEO, MEO, GEO, or even deep space relay links. Effectively utilizing a complex network topology requires orchestration and direction that spans the many discrete, individually addressable computer systems, which cause them to act in concert to achieve the overall network goals. The system must be intelligent enough to not only function under nominal conditions, but also adapt to unexpected situations, and reorganize or adapt to perform roles not originally intended for the system or explicitly programmed. This paper describes architecture features of cognitive networking within the future NASA space communications infrastructure, and interacting with the legacy systems and infrastructure in the meantime. The paper begins by discussing the need for increased automation, including inter-system collaboration. This discussion motivates the features of an architecture including cognitive networking for future missions and relays, interoperating with both existing endpoint-based networking models and emerging information-centric models. From this basis, we discuss progress on a proof-of-concept implementation of this architecture as a cognitive networking on-orbit application on the SCaN Testbed attached to the International Space Station.

space networks↗

NASA NTRS1984

The ideology of science during the Nixon years: 1970-1976

This paper examines the expert testimony given before the U.S. Congress during the legislative history of the National Science and Technology Policy Organization and Priorities Act of 1976, examining in particular the scientific witnesses' appeals for enlarged government funding for basic research and greater influence in the making of federal science policy. The author finds that in the process of arguing for increased support and influence, spokesmen for the nation's science establishment articulated an ideology of science which not only proclaimed the authority of scientific values over other forms of cognition but sought to advance the authority of scientists over the identification and resolution of societal and political issues. In so doing they challenged the viability of political values essential to the Anglo-American democratic-republican heritage. The paper thus documents not only cultural 'elitism,' which is not necessarily incompatible with democratic politics, but an antidemocratic ideology as well.

Fries, Sylvia Doughty↗

NASA NTRS2008

Simulated Students and Classroom Use of Model-Based Intelligent Tutoring

Two educational uses of models and simulations: 1) Students create models and use simulations ; and 2) Researchers create models of learners to guide development of reliably effective materials. Cognitive tutors simulate and support tutoring - data is crucial to create effective model. Pittsburgh Science of Learning Center: Resources for modeling, authoring, experimentation. Repository of data and theory. Examples of advanced modeling efforts: SimStudent learns rule-based model. Help-seeking model: Tutors metacognition. Scooter uses machine learning detectors of student engagement.

Koedinger, Kenneth R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Architecture for Cognitive Networking within NASA's Future Space Communications Infrastructure

Future space mission concepts and designs pose many networking challenges for command, telemetry, and science data applications with diverse end-to-end data delivery needs. For future end-to-end architecture designs, a key challenge is meeting expected application quality of service requirements for multiple simultaneous mission data flows with options to use diverse onboard local data buses, commercial ground networks, and multiple satellite relay constellations in LEO, GEO, MEO, or even deep space relay links. Effectively utilizing a complex network topology requires orchestration and direction that spans the many discrete, individually addressable computer systems, which cause them to act in concert to achieve the overall network goals. The system must be intelligent enough to not only function under nominal conditions, but also adapt to unexpected situations, and reorganize or adapt to perform roles not originally intended for the system or explicitly programmed. This paper describes an architecture enabling the development and deployment of cognitive networking capabilities into the envisioned future NASA space communications infrastructure. We begin by discussing the need for increased automation, including inter-system discovery and collaboration. This discussion frames the requirements for an architecture supporting cognitive networking for future missions and relays, including both existing endpoint-based networking models and emerging information-centric models. From this basis, we discuss progress on a proof-of-concept implementation of this architecture, and results of implementation and initial testing of a cognitive networking on-orbit application on the SCaN Testbed attached to the International Space Station.

space networks↗

NASA NTRS2016

Earth Science Data Analytics: Preparing for Extracting Knowledge from Information

Data analytics is the process of examining large amounts of data of a variety of types to uncover hidden patterns, unknown correlations and other useful information. Data analytics is a broad term that includes data analysis, as well as an understanding of the cognitive processes an analyst uses to understand problems and explore data in meaningful ways. Analytics also include data extraction, transformation, and reduction, utilizing specific tools, techniques, and methods. Turning to data science, definitions of data science sound very similar to those of data analytics (which leads to a lot of the confusion between the two). But the skills needed for both, co-analyzing large amounts of heterogeneous data, understanding and utilizing relevant tools and techniques, and subject matter expertise, although similar, serve different purposes. Data Analytics takes on a practitioners approach to applying expertise and skills to solve issues and gain subject knowledge. Data Science, is more theoretical (research in itself) in nature, providing strategic actionable insights and new innovative methodologies. Earth Science Data Analytics (ESDA) is the process of examining, preparing, reducing, and analyzing large amounts of spatial (multi-dimensional), temporal, or spectral data using a variety of data types to uncover patterns, correlations and other information, to better understand our Earth. The large variety of datasets (temporal spatial differences, data types, formats, etc.) invite the need for data analytics skills that understand the science domain, and data preparation, reduction, and analysis techniques, from a practitioners point of view. The application of these skills to ESDA is the focus of this presentation. The Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP) Federation Earth Science Data Analytics (ESDA) Cluster was created in recognition of the practical need to facilitate the co-analysis of large amounts of data and information for Earth science. Thus, from a to advance science point of view: On the continuum of ever evolving data management systems, we need to understand and develop ways that allow for the variety of data relationships to be examined, and information to be manipulated, such that knowledge can be enhanced, to facilitate science. Recognizing the importance and potential impacts of the unlimited ways to co-analyze heterogeneous datasets, now and especially in the future, one of the objectives of the ESDA cluster is to facilitate the preparation of individuals to understand and apply needed skills to Earth science data analytics. Pinpointing and communicating the needed skills and expertise is new, and not easy. Information technology is just beginning to provide the tools for advancing the analysis of heterogeneous datasets in a big way, thus, providing opportunity to discover unobvious scientific relationships, previously invisible to the science eye. And it is not easy It takes individuals, or teams of individuals, with just the right combination of skills to understand the data and develop the methods to glean knowledge out of data and information. In addition, whereas definitions of data science and big data are (more or less) available (summarized in Reference 5), Earth science data analytics is virtually ignored in the literature, (barring a few excellent sources).

data analytics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Preliminary Assessment of Physical Demand During Simulated Lunar Surface Extravehicular Activities

Future Artemis missions will require more advanced spacesuits to support exploration and science activities on the Lunar surface. Preparing for these missions requires an understanding of the physical and cognitive demand of performing common surface extravehicular activity (EVA) tasks in a suited partial-gravity environment. This study aims to characterize physical demand during exploration EVA tasks in the Artificial Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) as a function of the task and operational environment itself. Two subjects completed two days of EVA simulations at ARGOS in the Mark III spacesuit offloaded to Lunar gravity (1/6G). Metabolic rate (MR) and heart rate (HR) were continuously recorded while subjects completed an end-to-end EVA as well as standalone tasks. Understanding the physical demand to complete exploration EVA tasks will be instrumental to the future success of exploration spacesuit designs and missions. Further work in this study will be needed to characterize MR during exploration EVA tasks, including expanding the subject pool and testing new suit designs.

Taylor E Schlotman↗

NASA NTRS2017

Modulation Classification of Satellite Communication Signals Using Cumulants and Neural Networks

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)'s future communication architecture is evaluating cognitive technologies and increased system intelligence. These technologies are expected to reduce the operational complexity of the network, increase science data return, and reduce interference to self and others. In order to increase situational awareness, signal classification algorithms could be applied to identify users and distinguish sources of interference. A significant amount of previous work has been done in the area of automatic signal classification for military and commercial applications. As a preliminary step, we seek to develop a system with the ability to discern signals typically encountered in satellite communication. Proposed is an automatic modulation classifier which utilizes higher order statistics (cumulants) and an estimate of the signal-to-noise ratio. These features are extracted from baseband symbols and then processed by a neural network for classification. The modulation types considered are phase-shift keying (PSK), amplitude and phase-shift keying (APSK),and quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM). Physical layer properties specific to the Digital Video Broadcasting - Satellite- Second Generation (DVB-S2) standard, such as pilots and variable ring ratios, are also considered. This paper will provide simulation results of a candidate modulation classifier, and performance will be evaluated over a range of signal-to-noise ratios, frequency offsets, and nonlinear amplifier distortions.

Signal Recognition↗

NASA NTRS2017

Modulation Classification of Satellite Communication Signals Using Cumulants and Neural Networks

Signal Classification↗

NASA NTRS2019

Blind Study Validating Parametric Costing Tools PRICE True Planning and SEER-H for NASA Science Missions

Two of the primary parametric costing tools used to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware are PRICE True Planning - Space Missions Catalog by PRICE Systems, and SEER-H by Galorath. These are standard tools used by NASA and industry to estimate the cost of new aerospace hardware. However, no independent verification of the accuracy of these tools is publicly available. Both PRICE Systems and Galorath have completed internal validation studies of their parametric cost estimating tools; however, they only provided the results of the studies and did not detail the exact methods used to perform the validation. In the present study, cost estimators used PRICE True Planning and SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. In the present study, SEER had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, with a standard deviation of 43%. PRICE had an average error of 52%, median error of 50%, and standard deviation of 45%. There were several factors independent of PRICE and SEER which may have affected the accuracy of the results in the present study including: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

Friz, Paul D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Blind Validation Study of Parametric Cost Estimation Tool SEER-H for NASA Space Missions

One of the primary parametric cost modeling tools used by NASA and the aerospace industry to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware is SEER-H by Galorath. To date, no independent validation of this tool for cost estimation of space missions has been reported in the literature. In the present validation study, cost estimators used SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. The point estimates of SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, and a standard deviation of 43%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates. Several factors independent of SEER that may have affected the accuracy of the results have been identified and are discussed; these include: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

SEER-H↗