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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Coupling Microstructural Evolution Simulations to Material Property Degradation Predictions for Plasma-Facing Materials

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500 C to 1500 C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 D/m^2-s. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Connect microstructure evolution to property degradation with validated simulation

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500$^o$C to 1500$^o$C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 $\frac{D}{m^2s}$. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coupled Cluster Theory for Nonadiabatic Dynamics: Nuclear Gradients and Nonadiabatic Couplings in Similarity Constrained Coupled Cluster Theory

Coupled cluster theory is one of the most accurate electronic structure methods for predicting ground and excited state chemistry. However, the presence of numerical artifacts at electronic degeneracies, such as complex energies, has made it difficult to apply the method in nonadiabatic dynamics simulations. While it has already been shown that such numerical artifacts can be fully removed by using similarity constrained coupled cluster (SCC) theory [J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 2017, 8(19), 4801–4807], simulating dynamics requires efficient implementations of gradients and nonadiabatic couplings. Here, we present an implementation of nuclear gradients and nonadiabatic derivative couplings at the similarity constrained coupled cluster singles and doubles (SCCSD) level of theory, thereby making possible nonadiabatic dynamics simulations using a coupled cluster theory that provides a correct description of conical intersections between excited states. We present a few numerical examples that show good agreement with literature values and discuss some limitations of the method.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2025

Highly Active Hydrogen Evolution Reaction (HER) Catalysts Formed by Energetic Pt n Cluster Deposition: Deposition Dynamics and the HER Mechanism

Mass-selected Pt n + (n ≤ 7) were deposited at variable energies on highly oriented pyrolytic graphite (HOPG), creating highly active hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) electrocatalysts. HER mass activities were ~2 to >10 times higher than those for the surface atoms in bulk Pt and for Pt n deposited on several other supports. Thus, high activity reflects the Pt-C structures formed by energetic Pt n -HOPG impacts, in addition to high Pt surface availability. The Pt n /HOPG electrodes were probed by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, low energy ion scattering, and electron microscopy. Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (BOMD) was used to simulate Pt n - HOPG impacts, revealing the types of structures formed at different energies, then DFT was used to probe their most important HER pathways. For low deposition energies, the Pt n deposit onto the HOPG surface with sub-unit sticking probability, aggregating at defects. With increasing deposition energy, the sticking probability initially decreases, then rises to unity as subplantation and defect creation allow formation of strongly bonded platinum-carbon structures. Barriers for HER on these structures were found to be low and weakly dependent on Pt n size, consistent with experiment. The activities were highest for small covalently-bonded Pt-C structures created at high deposition energies. The larger aggregated structures formed at low energies were less active, but still substantially better than the bulk Pt surface monolayer. The catalysts were stable in repeated potential cycling at reducing potentials, but electrodes containing subplanted Pt became more active when scanned to oxidizing potentials, due to emergence of subplanted Pt onto the surface.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Signatures of Thermoreversible Associations in X-ray and Neutron Scattering from Dilute Polyzwitterion Solutions

In aqueous solutions of polyzwitterions (PZs), an interplay between dipole–dipole interactions and hydration of zwitterionic groups can lead to thermoreversible associations, which have been difficult to detect in experiments. Here, in this study, we investigated dilute aqueous solutions of poly(1-(3-sulphonatopropyl)-2-vinylpyridinium) (P2VPPS) using small-angle X-ray and neutron scattering (SAXS and SANS) to probe the structure and neutron spin-echo (NSE) spectroscopy to probe dynamics. The SAXS and SANS data show that the correlation length increases with an increase in the concentration of P2VPPS for three different molecular weights. The addition of 0.1 M NaCl to one of the solutions led to almost no dependence of the correlation length on the concentration. Such a concentration dependence of the correlation length suggests the formation of clusters driven by thermoreversible associations in the solutions. The NSE measurements show that the solutions with a larger correlation length display slower relaxation, reflecting the reduced mobility of larger clusters. These results should be considered as signatures of thermoreversible associations in the solutions of P2VPPS. To establish a quantitative link between local structure (clusters) and dynamics in dilute solutions of P2VPPS, we combined a thermoreversible gelation theory for the structure of PZ solutions (Li, S.-F.; Muthukumar, M. Theory of Thermoreversible Gelation and Anomalous Concentration Fluctuations in Polyzwitterion Solutions. J. Chem. Phys. 2024, 161, 024903) with a model for the dynamics of the clusters (generalized Zimm model), developed in this work. Using such a theoretical framework, we have predicted the distribution of clusters in the solutions probed with SANS and SAXS. With the distributions, the generalized Zimm model has been used to extract the diffusion constant of the clusters and their characteristic size from the NSE data, where the latter agrees with the values estimated from the SAXS/SANS data. These findings confirm the presence of thermoreversible associations and establish a quantitative link between local structure (clusters) and dynamics in dilute solutions of P2VPPS. Furthermore, with growing interest in technological applications, this work can provide useful insights into the structural and dynamical properties of other PZ solutions.

field theory↗
DOE OSTI2024

A study of nuclear structure of light nuclei at the electron–ion collider

Understanding the substructure of atomic nuclei, particularly the clustering of nucleons inside them, is essential for comprehending nuclear dynamics. Various cluster configurations can emerge depending on excitation energy, the number and types of core clusters, and the presence of excess neutrons. Despite the prevalence of tightly bound cluster formations in low-lying states, understanding the correlation between clusters and their formation mechanisms remains incomplete. This exploring study investigates nuclear clustering at the electron–ion collider (EIC) using simulations based on the modified BeAGLE model. By simulating collisions involving e+ 9 Be, e+ 12 C, and e+ 16 O nuclei, we find that the average energy of particles and the system size ratios of particles at forward rapidity exhibit sensitivity to alpha clustering and its various configurations. These findings offer valuable insights into the dynamics of nuclear clustering and its implications for future studies at the EIC.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Molecular dynamics study of interstitial He clusters in nickel

This study presents a molecular dynamics analysis focusing on the behavior of interstitial helium (He) clusters in nickel (Ni), examining their formation, stability, and migration energetics. Consistent with previous research, we found that the binding energies of interstitial helium within a helium cluster are positive and increase with the cluster size, indicating a preference for helium atoms to cluster together. However, our findings also reveal that while the formation energy increases monotonically with cluster size, the increase in binding energy is non-monotonic. Importantly, small He clusters were observed to be thermally unstable at reactor operational temperatures (approximately 600 K), with the He 2 cluster exhibiting instability even at room temperature. With a binding energy of 0.49 eV for a He 4 cluster, we hypothesize that for helium bubbles to form via homogeneous nucleation (i.e., through trap mutation) at reactor operating temperatures, the helium concentration must be high enough to facilitate the formation of helium clusters of at least size 4 or larger. As expected, interstitial helium and small helium clusters are highly mobile. This mobility was observed not only at room temperature but also at temperatures as low as approximately 200 K. Furthermore, the mean squared displacement method has been utilized to determine the migration barriers and the corresponding prefactors for clusters ranging from He 1 to He 6

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microscopic Dynamics Controls Coupling and Cluster Formation in Brush Particle Solids

Thermodynamics-based models predict the structure of polymer-grafted nanoparticles (PGNs) as well as their assembly behavior based on geometric parameters such as particle size, degree of polymerization, and density of grafted chains. The role of microscopic polymer dynamics, such as the mobility of repeat units in the melt state, in the evolution of the structure and properties remains unknown. Brillouin light spectroscopy (BLS), due to its capability to concurrently discern the local and global elastic properties of PGN assemblies, enables the probing of microscopic processes, such as brush interdigitation, sensitive to the annealing of the assembly. For poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA)-grafted silica (SiO 2 ) PGNs in the dry powder state and annealed above the glass transition temperature, BLS revealed fully reversible local elasticity, indicative of limited interdigitation between adjacent PGNs. This contrasts with polystyrene (PS)−SiO 2 analogs that displayed ready (and irreversible) fusion of brush layers during annealing. The retardation of brush interdigitation in PMMA-grafted systems is surprising, given the similar thermomechanical properties of both polymers, and is rationalized as the consequence of higher friction between PMMA repeats compared to PS. Microscopic dynamics thus has a profound impact on the kinetic path of structure (and property) evolution and thus should be considered during the processing of PGNs into functional hybrid materials.

chemical structure↗
DOE OSTI2025

Iodine recombination in xenon solvent: Clusters in the gas to liquid-like state transition

Supercritical fluids (SCFs) have attracted significant attention as solvents for chemical reactions due to their unique properties, such as high diffusivity, low viscosity, and tunable solvation properties. These properties profoundly influence reaction kinetics and are often attributed to the formation of molecular clusters within SCFs. To study the effect of supercritical solvent on chemical reactivity and dynamics of reactions, one needs to understand the dynamics of clusters in supercritical fluid. Extensive experiments on the photodissociation and recombination of iodine in supercritical fluids served as a model system for understanding these effects. Experimental studies have been complemented by theoretical and computational investigations, which mostly employ Monte Carlo or empirical molecular dynamics simulations. However, computational studies using non-reactive force fields and ab initio approaches present challenges in capturing reactive processes at larger scales within supercritical fluids. Here, in this work, we developed the ReaxFF parameters by training against quantum mechanics data. ReaxFF reactive force field based molecular dynamics simulations were performed, studying the dynamics of a xenon solvent and cage effect at different thermodynamic conditions for the iodine recombination reaction. We show that the conditions near the critical point are the optimal conditions to study the cage effect. We show that the average lifetime of xenon clusters ranging between 5 and 11 ps is comparable to iodine geminate recombination. Our simulation results of iodine recombination in xenon solvent demonstrate the higher probability of iodine molecule formation in the presence of xenon clusters. Finally, we show that the supercritical condition exhibits the highest recombination rate for iodine atoms.

Cage effect↗
DOE OSTI2025

VUV Photoionization Dynamics and Reactivity of Heterogeneous Water Clusters

This feature focuses on bridging isolated water and bulk water studies. It assembles experiments and theory on water clusters, mainly probed by vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation, and summarizes what the effects are of intermolecular interactions on both the spectroscopy and the VUV-induced processes in water. In particular, it highlights studies of heterogeneous water clusters─those incorporating other molecular species such as naphthalene, methane, formic acid, and glycerol─which serve as model systems to investigate the fundamental roles of water in hydrogen bonding networks, proton transfer, and astrochemical processes. These mixed clusters provide a platform to revisit the stability of protonated water clusters and compile observations of ionization-induced structural rearrangements and fragmentation, especially in systems involving hydroxyl-rich cosolvents. This feature then explores energy transfer mechanisms in molecular clusters, following VUV photoexcitation. It concludes with potential future directions. First, we investigate excited-state dynamics in molecular clusters through direct probing, complementing the synchrotron studies discussed here. Second, exploring gas-phase molecule evaporation from confined spaces and interfaces using advanced spectroscopic techniques sheds light on these ubiquitous, yet currently debated, molecular processes.

Cluster chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Subhalos in Galaxy Clusters: Coherent Accretion and Internal Orbits

Subhalo dynamics in galaxy cluster host halos govern the observed distribution and properties of cluster member galaxies. We use the IllustrisTNG simulation to investigate the accretion and orbits of subhalos found in cluster-size halos. We find that the median change in the major axis direction of cluster-size host halos is approximately 80° between a ∼ 0.1 and the present day. We identify coherent regions in the angular distribution of subhalo accretion, and ∼68% of accreted subhalos enter their host halo through ∼38% of the surface area at the virial radius. The majority of galaxy clusters in the sample have ∼2 such coherent regions. We further measure angular orbits of subhalos with respect to the host major axis and use a clustering algorithm to identify distinct orbit modes with varying oscillation timescales. The orbit modes correlate with subhalo accretion conditions. Subhalos in orbit modes with shorter oscillations tend to have lower peak masses and accretion directions somewhat more aligned with the major axis. One orbit mode, exhibiting the least oscillatory behavior, largely consists of subhalos that accrete near the plane perpendicular to the host halo major axis. Our findings are consistent with expectations from inflow from major filament structures and internal dynamical friction: most subhalos accrete through coherent regions, and more massive subhalos experience fewer orbits after accretion. Our work offers a unique quantification of subhalo dynamics that can be connected to how the intracluster medium strips and quenches cluster galaxies.

galaxy clusters↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pseudogap in electron-doped cuprates: Strong correlation leading to band splitting

The pseudogap phenomena have been a long-standing mystery of the cuprate high-temperature superconductors. The pseudogap in the electron-doped cuprates has been attributed to band folding due to antiferromagnetic (AFM) long-range order or short-range correlation. We performed an angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy study of the electron-doped cuprates Pr 1.3−x La 0.7 Ce x CuO 4 showing spin-glass, disordered AFM behaviors, and superconductivity at low temperatures and, by measurements with fine momentum cuts, found that the gap opens on the unfolded Fermi surface rather than the AFM Brillouin zone boundary. The gap did not show a node, following the full symmetry of the Brillouin zone, and its magnitude decreased from the zone-diagonal to (π,0) directions, opposite to the hole-doped case. These observations were reproduced by cluster dynamical-mean-field-theory calculation, which took into account electron correlation precisely within a (CuO 2 ) 4 cluster. In conclusion, the present experimental and theoretical results are consistent with the mechanism that electron or hole doping into a Mott insulator creates an in-gap band that is separated from the upper or lower Hubbard band by the pseudogap.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-Reciprocity, Metastability, and Dynamic Reconfiguration in Co-Assembly of Active and Passive Particles

Living organisms often exhibit non-reciprocal interactions where the forces acting on the objects are not equal in magnitude or opposite in direction. The combination of reciprocal and non-reciprocal interactions between synthetic building blocks remains largely unexplored. Here, out-of-equilibrium assemblies of non-motile isotropic passive and metal-patched motile active particles are formed by overlapping bulk interactions with directed self-propulsion. An external alternating current (AC) electric field generates concurrent dipolar and induced-charge electrophoretic forces between the particles which are evaluated using microscopy. The interaction force measurements allow to determine the degree of reciprocity in interactions, which is tunable by designing the active particle and its trajectory. While linearly-propelled active particles evade assembly with passive particles, helically propelled active particles form active-passive clusters with dynamic reconfiguration and long-lived metastability. Large clusters display programmable fluctuations and reconfigurability by controlling the fraction of active particles. The study establishes principles of integrating reciprocal and non-reciprocal interactions in guided colloidal assembly of reconfigurable metastable structures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cluster spin glass correlations and dynamics in Zn 0.5⁢ Mn 0.5⁢ Te

Here, we present a combined magnetometry, muon spin-relaxation (𝜇⁢SR), and neutron-scattering study of the insulating spin glass Zn 0.5 ⁢Mn 0.5 ⁢Te, for which magnetic Mn 2+ and nonmagnetic Zn 2+ ions are randomly distributed on a face-centered cubic lattice. The magnetometry and 𝜇⁢SR results confirm a spin freezing transition around 𝑇 𝑓 ≈ 23 K, with the spin-fluctuation rate decreasing gradually and somewhat inhomogeneously through the sample volume as the temperature decreases toward 𝑇 𝑓 . Characteristic spin-correlation times well above 𝑇 𝑓 are on the order of 10 −10 s, much slower than typically observed in canonical spin glasses but in line with expectations for a cluster spin glass. Using magnetic pair distribution function (mPDF) analysis and reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) modeling of the magnetic diffuse neutron-scattering data, we show that the spin-glass ground state consists of clusters of spins exhibiting short-range-ordered type-III antiferromagnetic correlations with a locally ordered moment of 3.1⁢(1)⁢𝜇 B between nearest-neighbor spins. The type-III correlations decay exponentially as a function of spin separation distance with a correlation length of approximately 5 Å. The diffuse magnetic scattering and corresponding mPDF show no significant changes across 𝑇 𝑓 , indicating that the dynamically fluctuating short-range spin correlations in the paramagnetic state retain the same basic type-III configuration that characterizes the spin-glass state; the only change apparent from the neutron-scattering data is a gradual reduction of the correlation length and locally ordered moment with increasing temperature. Taken together, these results paint a unique and detailed picture of the local magnetic structure and dynamics in Zn 0.5 ⁢Mn 0.5⁢ Te and provide strong evidence that this material is best described as a cluster spin glass. In addition, this work showcases a statistical method for extracting diffuse scattering signals from neutron powder diffraction data, which we developed to facilitate the mPDF and RMC analysis of the neutron data. This method has the potential to be broadly useful for neutron powder diffraction experiments on a variety of materials with short-range atomic or magnetic order.

magnetism↗
DOE OSTI2025

The hierarchical growth of bright central galaxies and intracluster light as traced by the magnitude gap

Using a sample of 2800 galaxy clusters identified in the Dark Energy Survey across the redshift range 0.20 < z < 0.60, we characterize the hierarchical assembly of bright central galaxies (BCGs) and the surrounding intracluster light (ICL). To quantify hierarchical formation we use the stellar mass–halo mass (SMHM) relation, comparing the halo mass, estimated via the mass–richness relation, to the stellar mass within the BCG + ICL system. Moreover, we incorporate the magnitude gap (M14), the difference in brightness between the BCG (measured within 30 kpc) and fourth brightest cluster member galaxy within 0.5 $R_{200,c}$, as a third parameter in this linear relation. The inclusion of M14, which traces BCG hierarchical growth, increases the slope and decreases the intrinsic scatter, highlighting that it is a latent variable within the BCG + ICL SMHM relation. Moreover, the correlation with M14 decreases at large radii. However, the stellar light within the BCG + ICL transition region (30 –80 kpc) most strongly correlates with halo mass and has a statistically significant correlation with M14. Since the transition region and M14 are independent measurements, the transition region may grow due to the BCG’s hierarchical formation. Additionally, as M14 and ICL result from hierarchical growth, we use a stacked sample and find that clusters with large M14 values are characterized by larger ICL and BCG + ICL fractions, which illustrates that the merger processes that build the BCG stellar mass also grow the ICL. Furthermore, this may suggest that M14 combined with the ICL fraction can identify dynamically relaxed clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Correlated Ion Transport Governed by Dynamic Local Structure in High Concentration and Localized High Concentration Electrolytes

Understanding the dynamics of cluster formation and network percolation provides the mechanistic link between microscopic solvation structure and transport in concentrated electrolytes, including localized high-concentration electrolytes (LHCEs). Although recent studies have shown LHCEs to form micelle-like aggregates at specific compositions, a quantitative understanding of how solvation structures and transport properties depend on salt–solvent–diluent ratios remains limited. Here, we integrate molecular dynamics with Onsager transport analyses to chart the evolution of solvation microstructure and associated ionic transport in LiFSI/DMC/TTE, achieving good agreement with experimental conductivities across composition. We show that micelle formation arises from a dynamic instability of the cation–anion network, and that network percolation is the primary determinant of conductivity. Two compositional thresholds emerge: A critical network concentration (CNC) and a critical micelle concentration (CMC) that delineate transitions from extended percolating networks to micelle-like clusters and then to fragments. These structural transitions rationalize the nonintuitive conductivity decrease at intermediate dilution despite monotonically decreasing viscosity and provide composition-level design rules for LHCEs.

Mohanakrishnan, Rohith Srinivaas [University of Ca↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparing Synoptic Pattern Evolution for Flash‐Flood‐Producing and Non‐Flash‐Flood‐Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the United States

Understanding how the short-term evolution of synoptic weather patterns influence Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) is essential, as these systems are responsible for over half of central U.S. flash floods, leading to substantial socioeconomic and water resource management impacts. This study analyzes long-term MCS data, flash flood reports, and atmospheric reanalyses from 2007 to 2017 using a machine learning clustering algorithm to examine how the synoptic weather patterns evolve prior to MCS initiation. While the clusters reflect seasonal and regional differences in MCS occurrence, they do not consistently distinguish between MCSs that do and do not produce flash floods. Systems in the southern Great Plains are more flood-prone when a synoptic-scale forcing, located near the system, drives strong water vapor transport from the nearby moisture source. More generally under different synoptic weather patterns, a broader precipitating area is the most dominant factor governing MCS flash flood potential.

atmospheric dynamics↗