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Modeling the Influences of Aerosols on Pre-Monsoon Circulation and Rainfall over Southeast Asia

We conduct several sets of simulations with a version of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5, (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) equipped with a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme to understand the role of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emissions in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the pre-monsoon period of February-May. Our experiments are designed so that both direct and indirect aerosol effects can be evaluated. For climatologically prescribed monthly sea surface temperatures, we conduct sets of model integrations with and without biomass burning emissions in the area of peak burning activity, and with direct aerosol radiative effects either active or inactive. Taking appropriate differences between AGCM experiment sets, we find that BBA affects liquid clouds in statistically significantly ways, increasing cloud droplet number concentrations, decreasing droplet effective radii (i.e., a classic aerosol indirect effect), and locally suppressing precipitation due to a deceleration of the autoconversion process, with the latter effect apparently also leading to cloud condensate increases. Geographical re-arrangements of precipitation patterns, with precipitation increases downwind of aerosol sources are also seen, most likely because of advection of weakly precipitating cloud fields. Somewhat unexpectedly, the change in cloud radiative effect (cloud forcing) at surface is in the direction of lesser cooling because of decreases in cloud fraction. Overall, however, because of direct radiative effect contributions, aerosols exert a net negative forcing at both the top of the atmosphere and, perhaps most importantly, the surface, where decreased evaporation triggers feedbacks that further reduce precipitation. Invoking the approximation that direct and indirect aerosol effects are additive, we estimate that the overall precipitation reduction is about 40% due to the direct effects of absorbing aerosols, which stabilize the atmosphere and reduce surface latent heat fluxes via cooler land surface temperatures. Further refinements of our two-moment cloud microphysics scheme are needed for a more complete examination of the role of aerosol-convection interactions in the seasonal development of the SEA monsoon.

SE Asia Monsoon↗

Toward a Consistent Definition between Satellite and Model Clear-Sky Radiative Fluxes

A new method of determining clear-sky radiative fluxes from satellite observations for climate model evaluation is presented. The method consists of applying adjustment factors to existing satellite clear-sky broadband radiative fluxes that make the observed and simulated clear-sky flux definitions more consistent. The adjustment factors are determined from the difference between observation-based radiative transfer model calculations of monthly mean clear-sky fluxes obtained by ignoring clouds in the atmospheric column and by weighting hourly mean clear-sky fluxes with imager-based clear-area fractions. The global mean longwave (LW) adjustment factor is −2.2 W m−2 at the top of the atmosphere and 2.7 W m−2 at the surface. The LW adjustment factors are pronounced at high latitudes during winter and in regions with high upper-tropospheric humidity and cirrus cloud cover, such as over the west tropical Pacific, and the South Pacific and intertropical convergence zones. In the shortwave (SW), global mean adjustment is 0.5 W m−2 at TOA and −1.9 W m−2 at the surface. It is most pronounced over sea ice off of Antarctica and over heavy aerosol regions, such as eastern China. However, interannual variations in the regional SW and LW adjustment factors are small compared to those in cloud radiative effect. After applying the LW adjustment factors, differences in zonal mean cloud radiative effect between observations and climate models decrease markedly between 60°S and 60°N and poleward of 65°N. The largest regional improvements occur over the west tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. In contrast, the impact of the SW adjustment factors is much smaller.

Norman G Loeb↗

Aerosol Radiative Effects on Deep Convective Clouds and Associated Radiative Forcing

The aerosol radiative effects (ARE) on the deep convective clouds are investigated by using a spectral-bin cloud-resolving model (CRM) coupled with a radiation scheme and an explicit land surface model. The sensitivity of cloud properties and the associated radiative forcing to aerosol single-scattering albedo (SSA) are examined. The ARE on cloud properties is pronounced for mid-visible SSA of 0.85. Relative to the case excluding the ARE, cloud fraction and optical depth decrease by about 18% and 20%, respectively. Cloud droplet and ice particle number concentrations, liquid water path (LWP), ice water path (IWP), and droplet size decrease significantly when the ARE is introduced. The ARE causes a surface cooling of about 0.35 K and significantly high heating rates in the lower troposphere (about 0.6K/day higher at 2 km), both of which lead to a more stable atmosphere and hence weaker convection. The weaker convection and the more desiccation of cloud layers explain the less cloudiness, lower cloud optical depth, LWP and IWP, smaller droplet size, and less precipitation. The daytime-mean direct forcing induced by black carbon is about 2.2 W/sq m at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and -17.4 W/sq m at the surface for SSA of 0.85. The semi-direct forcing is positive, about 10 and 11.2 W/sq m at the TOA and surface, respectively. Both the TOA and surface total radiative forcing values are strongly negative for the deep convective clouds, attributed mostly to aerosol indirect forcing. Aerosol direct and semi-direct effects are very sensitive to SSA. Because the positive semi-direct forcing compensates the negative direct forcing at the surface, the surface temperature and heat fluxes decrease less significantly with the increase of aerosol absorption (decreasing SSA). The cloud fraction, optical depth, convective strength, and precipitation decrease with the increase of absorption, resulting from a more stable and dryer atmosphere due to enhanced surface cooling and atmospheric heating.

Fan, J.↗

Cloud radiative forcing effects on observed and simulated global energetics

The research objectives are the following: (1) to examine how cloud-radiation processes generate/destroy available potential energy by altering both meridional and zonal temperature gradient; (2) to investigate how the atmospheric dynamic fields respond to the cloud-altered mass distributions through the energy conversion circuit; and (3) to examine how the improved version of CCM1 simulates observationally obtained cloud-radiative forcing and its associated energetics and circulations. Significant accomplishments in the past year towards obtaining these objectives and the focus of current research and plans for next year are discussed.

Sohn, Byung-Ju↗

LECTURE 8: Understanding Global Cloud Radiative Impacts

The influence of clouds on the radiation budget is one of the most important facets of the Earth’s climate. Satellite observations in the last 35 years have helped us understand the bulk radiative effects of different classes of clouds. Bill Rossow has spearheaded efforts in that direction, demonstrating the value of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud retrievals as a foundation for the full reconstruction of Earth’s Radiation Budget components. This main aim of this document is to provide an overview of the global radiative impacts of clouds at annual time scales. While geographical and seasonal aspects receive some attention, it is cloud radiative effect decomposition by cloud category (or“class” ) that is the main focal point. Furthermore, this document addresses the large-scale radiative behavior of clouds only for the current climate, with no further discussion of how this behavior may change in the future and what its climatic impact may be [please refer to Del Genio (2018) for an excellent overview of this topic]. Cloud classes can be defined in many ways, and are often referred to with terms such as “cloud type”and “cloud regime”. Some of the definitions are more meaningful at the level of individual instrument footprints (“pixels” for passive or “rays” for active satellite observations) while others for larger areas (e.g., “mesoscale”).This distinction will become apparent below.

Lazaros Oreopoulos↗

Assessment of NASA GISS CMIP5 and Post-CMIP5 Simulated Clouds and TOA Radiation Budgets Using Satellite Observations: TOA Radiation Budget and CREs - Part 2

In Part I of this study, the NASA GISS Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and post-CMIP5 (herein called C5 and P5, respectively) simulated cloud properties were assessed utilizing multiple satellite observations, with a particular focus on the southern midlatitudes (SMLs). This study applies the knowledge gained from Part I of this series to evaluate the modeled TOA radiation budgets and cloud radiative effects (CREs) globally using CERES EBAF (CE) satellite observations and the impact of regional cloud properties and water vapor on the TOA radiation budgets. Comparisons revealed that the P5- and C5-simulated global means of clear-sky and all-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) match well with CE observations, while biases are observed regionally. Negative biases are found in both P5- and C5-simulated clear-sky OLR. P5-simulated all-sky albedo slightly increased over the SMLs due to the increase in low-level cloud fraction from the new planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. Shortwave, longwave, and net CRE are quantitatively analyzed as well. Regions of strong large-scale atmospheric upwelling/downwelling motion are also defined to compare regional differences across multiple cloud and radiative variables. In general, the P5 and C5 simulations agree with the observations better over the downwelling regime than over the upwelling regime. Comparing the results herein with the cloud property comparisons presented in Part I, the modeled TOA radiation budgets and CREs agree well with the CE observations. These results, combined with results in Part I, have quantitatively estimated how much improvement is found in the P5-simulated cloud and radiative properties, particularly over the SMLs and tropics, due to the implementation of the new PBL and convection schemes.

Model comparison↗

Improved Representation of Atmospheric Dynamics in CMIP6 Models Removes Climate Sensitivity Dependence on Hadley Cell Climatological Extent

The persistent inter-model spread in the response of global mean surface temperature to increased CO. (known as the “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity”, or “ECS”) is a crucial problem across model generations. This work examines the influence of the models’ present-day atmospheric circulation climatologies, and the accompanying climatological cloud radiative effects, in explaining that spread. We analyze the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and _nd that they simulate a more poleward, and thus more realistic, edge of the Hadley Circulation (HC) in the SouthernHemisphere than the CMIP5 models, although the climatological shortwave cloud radiative effects are similar in the two generations of models. A few CMIP5 models with extreme equatorward biases in the HC edge exhibited high ECS due to strong Southern midlatitude shortwave cloud radiative warming in response to climate change, suggesting an ECS dependence on HC position. We find that such constraint no longer holds for the CMIP6 models, due to absence of models with extreme HC climatologies. In spite of this, however, the CMIP6 models show an increased spread in ECS, with more models in the high ECS range. Additionally, an improved representation of the climatological jet dynamics does not lead to a new emergent constraint in the CMIP6 models either.

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity↗

Understanding the Uncertainty and Variability of Earth’s Radiation Budget Components Over the Past 3 Decades from the NASA’s GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Release 4 Integrated Product

The NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project produced a 30+ year time series of 3-hourly Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative flux components at a 1x1 degree resolution. This SRB Release 4 Integrated Productare derived using imager data products from the cross-calibrated from ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) “HSeries” radiance, cloud and surface property data products. The ISCCP HXS product replaces ISCCP DX with a ninefold increase in pixel count (10km instead of 30km). ISCCP also provides an atmospheric temperature and moisture dataset known as nnHIRS which we use and discuss radiative flux sensitivities to in this presentation. Total solar irradiance is now variable consistent with SORCE measurements. Sea surface (SeaFlux v2.0) and land surface products (LandFlux) are utilized to achieve an radiative flux estimatesintegrated with global data sets from these GEWEX projects. The variable aerosol composition are specified using a detailed aerosol history from the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology (MAC) also used for background aerosol in the ISCCP HX. Numerous other improvements were made to the SW and LW algorithms including improved cloud optical property treatments and specification of surface spectral albedo and emissivity for various surface conditions. Here we analyze the new SWand LWSRB datasets, comparing them to the previous Release 3, BSRN, GEBA and PMEL surface measurements, and ERBE and CERES satellite datasets. For surface flux validation besides ensemble comparisons, we show the variability of SRB vs surface measurements from BSRN beginning in 1992 and GEBA SW from 1983. We assess the variability of the surface flux anomalies, particularly the net fluxes and the cloud radiative effects, over the entire time period including the period containing CERES overlap. For the TOA fluxes, the anomalies of the fluxes in the early period are compared to the MEaSURES ERBE and the latter period to CERES EBAF/SYN1Deg datasets for a benchmark. Long-term changes in the surface radiation budget components and cloud radiative effects are shown and discussed relative to CERES and surface measurements. This includes a change point analysis that helps associate various changes in the ISCCP GEO/LEO configurations and other inputs to variations in the radiative budget components.

Earth Radiation Budget↗

Do Fractal Models of Clouds Produces the Right 3D Radiative Effects?

Stochastic fractal models of clouds are often used to study 3D radiative effects and their influence on the remote sensing of cloud properties. Since it is important that the cloud models produce a correct radiative response, some researchers require the model parameters to match observed cloud properties such as scale-independent optical thickness variability. Unfortunately, matching these properties does not necessarily imply that the cloud models will cause the right 3D radiative effects. First, the matched properties alone only influence the 3D effects but do not completely determine them. Second, in many cases the retrieved cloud properties have been already biased by 3D radiative effects, and so the models may not match the true real clouds. Finally, the matched cloud properties cannot be considered independent from the scales at which they have been retrieved. This paper proposes an approach that helps ensure that fractal cloud models are realistic and produce the right 3D effects. The technique compares the results of radiative transfer simulations for the model clouds to new direct observations of 3D radiative effects in satellite images.

Varnai, Tamas↗

Performance of McRAS-AC in the GEOS-5 AGCM: Part 1, Aerosol-Activated Cloud Microphysics, Precipitation, Radiative Effects, and Circulation

A revised version of the Microphysics of clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert and Aerosol-Cloud interaction (McRAS-AC), including, among others, the Barahona and Nenes ice nucleation parameterization, is implemented in the GEOS-5 AGCM. Various fields from a 10-year long integration of the AGCM with McRAS-AC were compared with their counterparts from an integration of the baseline GEOS-5 AGCM, and with satellite data as observations. Generally using McRAS-AC reduced biases in cloud fields and cloud radiative effects are much better over most of the regions of the Earth. Two weaknesses are identified in the McRAS-AC runs, namely, too few cloud particles around 40S-60S, and too high cloud water path during northern hemisphere summer over the Gulf Stream and North Pacific. Sensitivity analyses showed that these biases potentially originated from biases in the aerosol input. The first bias is largely eliminated in a sensitivity test using 50% smaller aerosol particles, while the second bias is much reduced when interactive aerosol chemistry was turned on. The main drawback of McRAS-AC is dearth of low-level marine stratus clouds, probably due to lack of dry-convection, not yet implemented into the cloud scheme. Despite these biases, McRAS-AC does simulate realistic clouds and their optical properties that can improve with better aerosol-input and thereby has the potential to be a valuable tool for climate modeling research because of its aerosol indirect effect simulation capabilities involving prediction of cloud particle number concentration and effective particle size for both convective and stratiform clouds is quite realistic.

Sud, Y. C.↗

The effects of cloud radiative forcing on an ocean-covered planet

Cumulus anvil clouds, whose importance has been emphasized by observationalists in recent years, exert a very powerful influence on deep tropical convection by tending to radiatively destabilize the troposphere. In addition, they radiatively warm the column in which they reside. Their strong influence on the simulated climate argues for a much more refined parameterization in the General Circulation Model (GCM). For Seaworld, the atmospheric cloud radiative forcing (ACRF) has a powerful influence on such basic climate parameters as the strength of the Hadley circulation, the existence of a single narrow InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the precipitable water content of the atmosphere. It seems likely, however, that in the real world the surface CRF feeds back negatively to suppress moist convection and the associated cloudiness, and so tends to counteract the effects of the ACRF. Many current climate models have fixed sea surface temperatures but variable land-surface temperatures. The tropical circulations of such models may experience a position feedback due to ACRF over the oceans, and a negative or weak feedback due to surface CRF over the land. The overall effects of the CRF on the climate system can only be firmly established through much further analysis, which can benefit greatly from the use of a coupled ocean-atmospheric model.

Randall, David A.↗

Effect of cloud boundaries on reflected radiation

The effects of cloud boundaries on cloud reflectivity are evaluated by comparing satellite-observed reflectivities for layered clouds that are uniform over scales that are large compared with the field of view of the satellite radiometer and those of the same clouds where they are broken on scales which are small compared with the field of view. Results are given for 1 km AVHRR data. The reflectivities are compared at 0.63 micron for which droplets in stratiform water clouds are nonabsorbing, and at 3.7 microns where the single-scattering albedo of the droplets is typically about 0.9 micron.

Coakley, James A., Jr.↗

Comparison of Clouds and Cloud Feedback between AMIP5 and AMIP6

We examine the changes in clouds and cloud feedback between Phase 5 (AMIP5) and Phase 6 (AMIP6) of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. Each model is perturbed by uniformly increasing the sea surface temperature by 4 K. The simulated cloud fraction, the perturbed states and cloud radiative kernels are used to derive cloud feedback in the shortwave (SW), longwave (LW) and their sum (Net). Compared to AMIP5, the cloud fraction in AMIP6 increases by 9.1%, while the perturbation leads to a 0.25% decrease. The Net cloud feedback at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is almost double (174%). Statistical tests support that this change is mainly due to an increase in the surface SW cloud feedback caused by optically thick, middle and low clouds. The contribution of the atmospheric Net component (12%) stems from the increase in the atmospheric LW cloud feedback, likely to play a role in weakening (strengthening) the northward (southward) meridional atmospheric energy transport, while the opposite is true for the surface LW and Net cloud feedback in the meridional oceanic energy transport. The substantial increase in cloud feedback at the TOA primarily contributes to the higher climate sensitivity. The cloud feedback spread in AMIP6 is comparable to that in AMIP5.

Clouds↗

Improving Climate Projections by Understanding How Cloud Phase affects Radiation

Whether a cloud is predominantly water or ice strongly influences interactions between clouds and radiation coming down from the Sun or up from the Earth. Being able to simulate cloud phase transitions accurately in climate models based on observational data sets is critical in order to improve confidence in climate projections, because this uncertainty contributes greatly to the overall uncertainty associated with cloud-climate feedbacks. Ultimately, it translates into uncertainties in Earth's sensitivity to higher CO2 levels. While a lot of effort has recently been made toward constraining cloud phase in climate models, more remains to be done to document the radiative properties of clouds according to their phase. Here we discuss the added value of a new satellite data set that advances the field by providing estimates of the cloud radiative effect as a function of cloud phase and the implications for climate projections.

radiation↗

The effects of atmospheric cloud radiative forcing on climate

In order to isolate the effects of atmospheric cloud radiative forcing (ACRF) on climate, the general circulation of an ocean-covered earth called 'Seaworld' was simulated using the Colorado State University GCM. Most current climate models, however, do not include an interactive ocean. The key simplifications in 'Seaworld' are the fixed boundary temperature with no land points, the lack of mountains and the zonal uniformity of the boundary conditions. Two 90-day 'perpetual July' simulations were performed and analyzed the last sixty days of each. The first run included all the model's physical parameterizations, while the second omitted the effects of clouds in both the solar and terrestrial radiation parameterizations. Fixed and identical boundary temperatures were set for the two runs, and resulted in differences revealing the direct and indirect effects of the ACRF on the large-scale circulation and the parameterized hydrologic processes.

Randall, David A.↗

Influence of clouds on the earth's radiation budget determined from GOES data

Estimates of the cloud radiative effects on the earth's regional and zonal radiation budgets derived from GOES data during November 1978 are presented. The diurnal cloud cover variability is shown to affect both the radiation-budget measurements and the estimation of the overall effect of clouds on the net flux. For this data set, the cloud cover causes a decrease in the net flux from the clear-sky value. Thus, the cloud albedo effect outweights the greenhouse effect of the clouds. It is found that the value of the change in the radiation balance is closely related to the amount of incident solar radiation and to the zonal distributions of low, middle, and high cloud cover.

Harrison, E. F.↗

Remote Sensing of Cloud Properties using Ground-based Measurements of Zenith Radiance

An extensive verification of cloud property retrievals has been conducted for two algorithms using zenith radiances measured by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program ground-based passive two-channel (673 and 870 nm) Narrow Field-Of-View Radiometer. The underlying principle of these algorithms is that clouds have nearly identical optical properties at these wavelengths, but corresponding spectral surface reflectances (for vegetated surfaces) differ significantly. The first algorithm, the RED vs. NIR, works for a fully three-dimensional cloud situation. It retrieves not only cloud optical depth, but also an effective radiative cloud fraction. Importantly, due to one-second time resolution of radiance measurements, we are able, for the first time, to capture detailed changes in cloud structure at the natural time scale of cloud evolution. The cloud optical depths tau retrieved by this algorithm are comparable to those inferred from both downward fluxes in overcast situations and microwave brightness temperatures for broken clouds. Moreover, it can retrieve tau for thin patchy clouds, where flux and microwave observations fail to detect them. The second algorithm, referred to as COUPLED, couples zenith radiances with simultaneous fluxes to infer 2. In general, the COUPLED and RED vs. NIR algorithms retrieve consistent values of tau. However, the COUPLED algorithm is more sensitive to the accuracies of measured radiance, flux, and surface reflectance than the RED vs. NIR algorithm. This is especially true for thick overcast clouds where it may substantially overestimate z.

Chiu, J. Christine↗

Major Characteristics of Southern Ocean Cloud Regimes and Their Effects on the Energy Budget

Clouds over the Southern Ocean are often poorly represented by climate models, but they make a significant contribution to the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation balance, particularly in the shortwave portion of the energy spectrum. This study seeks to better quantify the organization and structure of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude clouds by combining measurements from active and passive satellite-based datasets. Geostationary and polar-orbiter satellite data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) are used to quantify large-scale, recurring modes of cloudiness, and active observations from CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) are used to examine vertical structure, radiative heating rates, and precipitation associated with these clouds. It is found that cloud systems are organized into eight distinct regimes and that ISCCP overestimates the midlevel cloudiness of these regimes. All regimes contain a relatively high occurrence of low cloud, with 79%of all cloud layers observed having tops below 3 km, but multiple-layered clouds systems are present in approximately 34% of observed cloud profiles. The spatial distribution of regimes varies according to season, with cloud systems being geometrically thicker, on average, during the austral winter. Those regimes found to be most closely associated with midlatitude cyclones produce precipitation the most frequently, although drizzle is extremely common in low-cloud regimes. The regimes associated with cyclones have the highest in-regime shortwave cloud radiative effect at the TOA, but the low-cloud regimes, by virtue of their high frequency of occurrence over the oceans, dominate both TOA and surface shortwave effects in this region as a whole.

Haynes, John M.↗