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At least 55 records · Page 3

Satellite contributions to convective scale weather analysis and forecasting

Severe weather phenomena which are amenable to remote sensing by satellite instruments and having resolution fine enough to discern mesoscale features are described. GOES satellites acquire imagery with 1 km resolution in the visible band and 8 km at IR wavelengths. Animation of the images allows tracking the evolution and motions of clouds, which are the prime indicators of convective activity. Sample satellite imagery of sea, lake and river breezes which reveal differential heating processes, the effect of early morning cloud cover, thunderstorm outflow processes, and mesoscale convective systems are provided. Techniques for analyzing the satellite data to predict the onset of severe weather are discussed.

Purdom, James F. W.↗

Assimilation of Polar Orbiting Space-Based Data and Its Impact on Weather Prediction

This portion of the Data Assimilation and Numerical Weather Prediction Benefits presentation will describe: the need for remotely sensed data, the types of observations that have been made and will be available, how satellite data have been and are being assimilated, the impact of the data on weather analysis and prediction in both the U.S and abroad and the potential impact of new observing systems on NWP. Specific observing systems that will be discussed include: satellite temperature and moisture soundings/radiances (TOVS, ATOVS, AIRS/AMSU), satellite surface winds from both passive and active microwave atmospheric motion winds (from MODIS or MISR) precipitation measurements clouds and land surface measurements (e.g. from MODIS) lidar wind profiles.

Atlas, Robert M.↗

Space-Based Precipitation Measurements in Tropical Cyclones: Past, Present, and Future

Passive and active remote sensing of precipitation from space has led to significant advances in the understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones around the globe. This presentation will highlight the role of past NASA space-based measurements of precipitation by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, 1998-2015), ongoing measurements by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (2014-current), and future measurements from the Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS, nominal launch date in 2020) as well as a potential new mission on Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation (ACCP) from the 2017 NASA Earth Science Decadal Survey. TRMM, which flew the first precipitation radar in space, provided the first systematic descriptions of the radial and azimuthal variations of rainfall in tropical cyclones around the globe and their relationship to storm motion and vertical wind shear. GPM is the lynchpin of a global constellation of precipitation satellites that provides high spatial (0.1°) and temporal (30 min) resolution real-time estimates of precipitation globally, making them essential to applications related to tropical cyclone prediction, disaster response, flood and landslide monitoring, and vector-borne disease monitoring. TROPICS will be a constellation of 6 Cubesat satellites with microwave imaging and sounding channels that will provide information on temperature and humidity in the storm environment, as well as estimates of precipitation and tropical cyclone intensity. ACCP is yet to be fully defined, but is envisioned to potentially carry multi-frequency radar with possible Doppler capability.

Braun, Scott↗

Mesoscale meteorology - Theories, observations and models; Proceedings of the Advanced Study Institute, Bonas, Gers, France, July 13-31, 1982

Among the topics discussed are mesoscale processes and variability, regional and cyclonic scale motions and their prediction modeling, fronts, mesoscale instabilities, buoyancy (gravity) waves and topographic forcing, buoyant convection, boundary layers, and observational technology. The specific issues investigated include methods for initializing mesoscale forecast models, an energy theory for the propagation of gravity currents, a theory for rain bands within extratropical cyclones, the morning glory as a nonlinear wave phenomenon, cumulus clouds, the prediction of severe convection, planetary boundary layer parameterization, and three-dimensional wind field analysis from Doppler radar data.

Lilly, D. K.↗

Improving Global Analysis and Short-Range Forecast Using Rainfall and Moisture Observations Derived from TRMM and SSM/I Passive Microwave Instruments

The Global Precipitation Mission, a satellite project under consideration as a follow-on to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) by the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) in the United States, the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) in Japan, and other international partners, comprises an improved TRMM-like satellite and a constellation of 8 satellites carrying passive microwave radiometers to provide global rainfall measurements at 3-hour intervals. The success of this concept relies on the merits of rainfall estimates derived from passive microwave radiometers. This article offers a proof-of-concept demonstration of the benefits of using, rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) information derived from such instruments in global data assimilation with observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and 2 Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) instruments. Global analyses that optimally combine observations from diverse sources with physical models of atmospheric and land processes can provide a comprehensive description of the climate systems. Currently, such data analyses contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation and evaporation, especially in the tropics. We show that assimilating the 6-h averaged TMI and SSM/I surface rainrate and TPW retrievals improves not only the hydrological cycle but also key climate parameters such as clouds, radiation, and the upper tropospheric moisture in the analysis produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System, as verified against radiation measurements by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and brightness temperature observations by the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) instruments. Typically, rainfall assimilation improves clouds and radiation in areas of active convection, as well as the latent heating and large-scale motions in the tropics, while TPW assimilation leads to reduced moisture biases and improved radiative fluxes in clear-sky regions. Ensemble forecasts initialized with analyses that incorporate TMI and SSM/I rainfall and TPW data also yield better short-range predictions of geopotential heights, winds, and precipitation in the tropics. This study offers a compelling illustration of the potential of using rainfall and TPW information derived from passive microwave instruments to significantly improve the quality of 4-dimensional global datasets for climate analysis and weather forecasting applications.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Multiscale Cloud System Modeling

The central theme of this paper is to describe how cloud system resolving models (CRMs) of grid spacing approximately 1 km have been applied to various important problems in atmospheric science across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and how these applications relate to other modeling approaches. A long-standing problem concerns the representation of organized precipitating convective cloud systems in weather and climate models. Since CRMs resolve the mesoscale to large scales of motion (i.e., 10 km to global) they explicitly address the cloud system problem. By explicitly representing organized convection, CRMs bypass restrictive assumptions associated with convective parameterization such as the scale gap between cumulus and large-scale motion. Dynamical models provide insight into the physical mechanisms involved with scale interaction and convective organization. Multiscale CRMs simulate convective cloud systems in computational domains up to global and have been applied in place of contemporary convective parameterizations in global models. Multiscale CRMs pose a new challenge for model validation, which is met in an integrated approach involving CRMs, operational prediction systems, observational measurements, and dynamical models in a new international project: the Year of Tropical Convection, which has an emphasis on organized tropical convection and its global effects.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Modulating terrestrial impacts from Oort cloud comets by the adiabatically changing galactic tides

Time modulation of the flux of new Jupiter-dominated Oort cloud comets is the subject of interest here. The major perturbation of these comets during the present epoch is due to the tidal field of the relatively smooth distribution of matter in the galactic disk. A secondary source of the near-parabolic comet flux are stars penetrating the inner Oort cloud and providing impulses that create brief comet showers. Substantial stellar-induced showers occur approximately every 100 m.y. Less frequent (but stronger) impulses due to giant molecular clouds can also perturb comets from the inner cloud. These occur on timescales of approximately equal to 500 m.y. In contrast to these infrequent stochastic shower phenomena is the continuously varying tidal-induced flux due to the galaxy. As the Sun orbits the galactic center it undergoes quasiharmonic motion about the galactic midplane, which is superimposed on the small eccentricity, near-Keplerian motion in the plane having epicycle period approximately equal to 150 m.y. In the process the galactic tidal field on the Sun/cloud system will vary causing a modulation of the observable Oort cloud flux. We have created a model of the galactic matter distribution as it affects the solar motion over a time interval ranging from 300 m.y. in the past to 100 m.y. into the future. As constraints on the disk's compact dark matter component we require consistency with the following: (1) the observed galactic rotation curve, (2) today's flux distribution of new comets, (3) the studies of K-giant distributions, and (4) the periodicity found in the terrestrial cratering record. The adiabatically varying galactic tidal torque is then determined and used to predict the time dependence of the flux. We find that a model in which approximately half the disk matter is compact is consistent with these constraints. Under such circumstances the peak-to-trough flux variation will be approx. equal to 5:1 with a full width of 9 m.y. This variability will manifest in the terrestrial cratering record and is consistent with the observed cratering periodicity, if over half of the impacts on Earth are caused by comets or asteroids that originate in the outer Oort cloud.

Matese, J. J.↗

Utilitarian models of the solar nebula

Models of the primitive solar nebula based on a combination of theory, observations of T Tauri stars, and global conservation laws are presented. The models describe the motions of nebular gas, mixing of interstellar material during the formation of the nebula, and evolution of thermal structure in terms of several characteristic parameters. The parameters describe key aspects of the protosolar cloud (its rotation rate and collapse rate) and the nebula (its mass relative to the Sun, decay time, and density distribution). For most applications, the models are heuristic rather than predicted. Their purpose is to provide a realistic context for the interpretation of solar system data, and to distinquish those nebular characteristics that can be specified with confidence, independently of the assumtions of particular models, form those that are poorly constrained. It is demonstrated that nebular gas typically experienced large radial excursions during the evolution of the nebula and that both inward and outward mean radial velocities on the order of meters per second occured in the terrestrial planet region, with inward velocities predominant for most ofthe evolution. However, the time history of disk size, surface density, and radial velocities are sensitive to the total angular momentun of the protosolar cloud, which cannot be constrained by purely theoretical considerations.It is shown that a certain amount of 'formational' mixing of interstellar material was an inevitable consequenc of nebular mass and angular momentum transport during protostellar collapse, regardless of the specific transport mechanisms invloved. Even if the protosolar cloud was initially homogeneous, this mixing was important because it had the effect of mingling presolar material that had experienced different degrees of thermal processing during collapse and passage through the accertion shock. Nebular thermal structure is less sensitive to poorly constrained parameters than is dynamical history. A simple criterion is derived for the condition that silicate grains are evaporated at midplane, and it is argued that this condition was probably fulfilled early in nebular history. Cooling of a hot nebula due tocoagulation of dust and consequent local reduction of optical depth is examined, and it is shown how such a process leads naturally to an enrichment of rock-forming elements in the gas phase.

Cassen, Patrick↗

A Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

Numerical cloud resolving models (CRMs), which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that CRMs agree with observations in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and regional scale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a szrper-parameterization or multi-scale modeling -framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign can provide initial conditions as well as validation through utilizing the Earth Satellite simulators. At Goddard, we have developed a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics. The modeling system consists a coupled GCM-CRM (or MMF); a state-of-the-art weather research forecast model (WRF) and a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model). In these models, the same microphysical schemes (2ICE, several 3ICE), radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and surface models are applied. In addition, a comprehensive unified Earth Satellite simulator has been developed at GSFC, which is designed to fully utilize the multi-scale modeling system. A brief review of the multi-scale modeling system with unified physics/simulator and examples is presented in this article.

Tao, W.K.↗

Voyager and the origin of the solar system

A unified model for the formation of regular satellite systems and the planetary system is outlined. The basis for this modern Laplacian theory is that there existed a large supersonic turbulent stress arising from overshooting convective motions within the three primitive gaseous clouds which formed Jupiter, Saturn, and the Sun. Calculations show that if each cloud possessed the same fraction of supersonic turbulent energy, equal to about 5% of the cloud's gravitational potential energy, then the broad mass distribution and chemistry of all regular satellite and planetary systems can be simultaneously accounted for. Titan is probably a captured moon of Saturn. Several predictions about observations made by Voyager 2 at Saturn are presented.

Prentice, A. J. R.↗

Vulnerability of Space Station Freedom Modules: A Study of the Effects of Module Perforation on Crew and Equipment: Analytical Modeling of Internal Debris Cloud Effects - Volume 2

In this part of the report, a first-principles based model is developed to predict the overpressure and temperature effects of a perforating orbital debris particle impact within a pressurized habitable module. While the effects of a perforating debris particles on crew and equipment can be severe, only a limited number of empirical studies focusing on space vehicles have been performed to date. Traditionally, crew loss or incapacitation due to a perforating impact has primarily been of interest to military organizations and as such have focused on military vehicles and systems. The module wall considered in this study is initially assumed to be a standard Whippletype dual-wall system in which the outer wall protects the module and its inhabitants by disrupting impacting particles. The model is developed in a way such that it sequentially characterizes the phenomena comprising the impact event, including the initial impact, the creation and motion of a debris cloud within the dual-wall system, the impact of the debris cloud on the inner wall, the creation and motion of the debris cloud that enters the module interior, and the effects of the debris cloud within the module on module pressure and temperature levels. This is accomplished through the application of elementary shock physics and thermodynamic theory.

Schonberg, William P.↗

Impact of geostationary satellite water vapor channel data on weather analysis and forecasting

Preliminary results from NWP impact studies are indicating that upper-tropospheric wind information provided by tracking motions in sequences of geostationary satellite water vapor imagery can positively influence forecasts on regional scales, and possibly on global scales as well. The data are complimentary to cloud-tracked winds by providing data in cloud-free regions, as well as comparable in quality. First results from GOES-8 winds are encouraging, and further efforts and model impacts will be directed towards optimizing these data in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Assuming successful launches of GOES-J and GMS-5 satellites in 1995, high quality and resolution water vapor imagers will be available to provide nearly complete global upper-tropospheric wind coverage.

Velden, Christopher S.↗

CO observations of the expanding envelope of IRC + 10216

The paper reports high-sensitivity observations of (C-12)O and (C-13)O in the infrared source IRC + 10216, which were made with the NRAO 11-m telescope at frequencies of 115.2712 and 110.2014 GHz, respectively. The emission-line profiles are found to be in good qualitative agreement with model profiles predicted for a spherically symmetric and uniformly expanding envelope. Analysis of the profile shapes indicates that the (C-12)O line is optically thick, while the (C-13)O line is both optically thin and double-peaked. It is shown that the shape of the (C-12)O line is determined largely by the motion of the gas and that the expansion velocity at the edges of the CO cloud is 15 km/s, in contrast to 12 km/s for more centrally confined molecules. Based on the estimated (C-13)O content, the envelope mass is estimated to be 0.5 solar mass.

Kuiper, T. B. H.↗

The use of satellite data in understanding and predicting convective and large-scale dynamical processes

Mesoscale convective processes and how they affect and interact with mid-latitude cyclones were studied. The ageostrophic and associated vertical motion field was calculated using a highly accurate iterative method of solving the semigeostrophic omega equation. The tendencies for convective destabilization in the 850-750 mb layer due to differential geostrophic and ageostrophic advection and differential moist adiabatic ascent, were found. The spectral models of the index oscillation, one barotropic and the other baroclinic, were developed. Theoretical and observational studies of cloud streets were conducted.

Dutton, J. A.↗

Bifurcation and stability in a model of moist convection in a shearing environment

The truncated spectral system (model I) of shallow moist two-dimensional convection discussed by Shirer and Dutton (1979) is expanded to eleven coefficients (model II) in order to include a basic wind. Cloud streets, the atmospheric analog of the solutions to model II, are typically observed in an environment containing a shearing basic motion field. Analysis of the branching behavior of solutions to mode II shows that, if the basic wind direction varies with height, very complex temporal behavior is possible as the modified Rayleigh number HR is increased sufficiently. The first convective solution is periodic, corresponding to a cloud band that propagates downwind; but secondary branching to a two-dimensional torus can occur for larger values of HR. Orientation band formulas are derived whose predictions generally agree with the results of previous studies.

Shirer, H. N.↗

Results of magnetospheric barium ion cloud experiment of 1971

The barium ion cloud experiment involved the release of about 2 kg of barium at an altitude of 31 482 km, a latitude of 6.926 N., and a longitude of 74.395 W. Significant erosion of plasma from the main ion core occurred during the initial phase of the ion cloud expansion. From the motion of the outermost striational filaments, the electric field components were determined to be 0.19 mV/m in the westerly direction and 0.68 mV/m in the inward direction. The differences between these components and those measured from balloons flown in the proximity of the extremity of the field line through the release point implied the existence of potential gradients along the magnetic field lines. The deceleration of the main core was greater than theoretically predicted. This was attributed to the formation of a polarization wake, resulting in an increase of the area of interaction and resistive dissipation at ionospheric levels. The actual orientation of the magnetic field line through the release point differed by about 10.5 deg from that predicted by magnetic field models that did not include the effect of ring current.

Adamson, D.↗

NuSTAR Observations of Water Megamaser AGN

Aims. We study the connection between the masing disk and obscuring torus in Seyfert 2 galaxies. Methods. We present a uniform X-ray spectral analysis of the high energy properties of 14 nearby megamaser active galactic nuclei observed by NuSTAR. We use a simple analytical model to localize the maser disk and understand its connection with the torus by combining NuSTAR spectral parameters with the available physical quantities from VLBI mapping.Results. Most of the sources that we analyzed are heavily obscured, showing a column density in excess of approx.10(exp 23) cm(exp -2); in particular, 79% are Compton-thick [NH is greater than 1.5 x 10(exp 24) cm(exp -2)]. When using column densities measured by NuSTAR with the assumption that the torus is the extension of the maser disk, and further assuming a reasonable density profile, we can predict the torus dimensions. They are found to be consistent with mid-IR interferometry parsec-scale observations of Circinus and NGC 1068. In this picture, the maser disk is intimately connected to the inner part of the torus. It is probably made of a large number of molecular clouds that connect the torus and the outer part of the accretion disk, giving rise to a thin disk rotating in most cases in Keplerian or sub-Keplerian motion. This toy model explains the established close connection between water megamaser emission and nuclear obscuration as a geometric effect.

masers / galaxies: active / galaxies: Seyfert↗

Analytical Modeling of Pressure Wall Hole Size and Maximum Tip-to-Tip Crack Length for Perforating Normal and Oblique Orbital Debris Impacts

This report presents the results of a study whose objective was to develop first-principles-based models of hole size and maximum tip-to-tip crack length for a spacecraft module pressure wall that has been perforated in an orbital debris particle impact. The hole size and crack length models are developed by sequentially characterizing the phenomena comprising the orbital debris impact event, including the initial impact, the creation and motion of a debris cloud within the dual-wall system, the impact of the debris cloud on the pressure wall, the deformation of the pressure wall due to debris cloud impact loading prior to crack formation, pressure wall crack initiation, propagation, and arrest, and finally pressure wall deformation following crack initiation and growth. The model development has been accomplished through the application of elementary shock physics and thermodynamic theory, as well as the principles of mass, momentum, and energy conservation. The predictions of the model developed herein are compared against the predictions of empirically-based equations for hole diameters and maximum tip-to-tip crack length for three International Space Station wall configurations. The ISS wall systems considered are the baseline U.S. Lab Cylinder, the enhanced U.S. Lab Cylinder, and the U.S. Lab Endcone. The empirical predictor equations were derived from experimentally obtained hole diameters and crack length data. The original model predictions did not compare favorably with the experimental data, especially for cases in which pressure wall petalling did not occur. Several modifications were made to the original model to bring its predictions closer in line with the experimental results. Following the adjustment of several empirical constants, the predictions of the modified analytical model were in much closer agreement with the experimental results.

Schonberg, William P.↗