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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Impact of Climate Change on Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.

projection↗
NASA NTRS2024

Observational Constraint on A Feedback From Supercooled Clouds Reduces Projected Warming Uncertainty

The increase of carbon-dioxide-doubling-induced warming (climate sensitivity) in the latest climate models is primarily attributed to a larger extratropical cloud feedback. This is thought to be partly driven by a greater ratio of supercooled liquid-phase clouds to all clouds, termed liquid phase ratio. We use an instrument simulator approach to show that this ratio has increased in the latest climate models and is overestimated rather than underestimated as previously thought. In our analysis of multiple models, a greater ratio corresponds to stronger negative cloud feedback, in contradiction with single-model-based studies. We trace this unexpected result to a cloud feedback involving a shift from supercooled to warm clouds as climate warms, which corresponds to greater cloud amount and optical depth and weakens the extratropical cloud feedback. Better constraining this ratio in climate models – and thus this supercooled cloud feedback – impacts their climate sensitivities by up to 1 ˚C and reduces inter-model spread.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗
NASA NTRS2022

Circumpolar Ocean Stability on Mars 3 Gy Ago

What was the nature of the Late Hesperian climate, warm and wet or cold and dry? Formulated this way the question leads to an apparent paradox since both options seem implausible. A warm and wet climate would have produced extensive fluvial erosion but few valley networks have been observed at the age of the Late Hesperian. A too cold climate would have kept any northern ocean frozen most of the time. A moderate cold climate would have transferred the water from the ocean to the land in the form of snow and ice. But this would prevent tsunami formation, for which there is some evidence. Here, we provide insights from numerical climate simulations in agreement with surface geological features to demonstrate that the Martian climate could have been both cold and wet. Using an advanced general circulation model (GCM), we demonstrate that an ocean can be stable, even if the Martian mean surface temperature is lower than 0 ∘C. Rainfall is moderate near the shorelines and in the ocean. The southern plateau is mostly covered by ice with a mean temperature below 0 ∘C and a glacier return flow back to the ocean. This climate is achieved with a 1-bar CO2-dominated atmosphere with 10% H2. Under this scenario of 3 Ga, the geologic evidence of a shoreline and tsunami deposits along the ocean/land dichotomy are compatible with ice sheets and glacial valleys in the southern highlands.

Mars↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Response of Phanerozoic Surface Temperature to Variations in Atmospheric Oxygen Concentration

Recently, Poulsen et al. (2015) suggested that O2 has played a major role in climate forcing during the Phanerozoic. Specifically, they argued that decreased O2 levels during the Cenomanian stage of the middle Cretaceous (94–100 Ma) could help explain the extremely warm climate during that time. The postulated warming mechanism involves decreased Rayleigh scattering by a thinner atmosphere, which reduces the planetary albedo and allows greater surface warming. This warming effect is then amplified by cloud feedbacks within their 3-D climate model. This increase in shortwave surface forcing, in their calculations, exceeds any decrease in the greenhouse effect caused by decreased O2. Here we use a 1-D radiative-convective climate model (with no cloud feedback) to check their results. We also include a self-consistent calculation of the change in atmospheric ozone and its effect on climate. Our results are opposite to those of Poulsen et al.: we find that the climate warms by 1.4 K at 35% O2 concentrations as a result of increased pressure broadening of CO2 and H2O absorption lines and cools by 0.8 K at 10% O2 as a result of decreased pressure broadening. The surface temperature changes are only about 1 K either way, though, for reasonable variations in Phanerozoic O2 concentrations (10%–35% by volume). Hence, it seems unlikely that changes in atmospheric O2 account for the warm climate of the Cenomanian. Other factors, such as a higher-than-expected sensitivity of climate to increased CO2 concentrations, may be required to obtain agreement with the paleoclimate data.

Atmospheric O2 levels↗
NASA NTRS2019

Climates of Warm Earth-Like Planets III: Fractional Habitability from a Water Cycle Perspective

The habitable fraction of a planet's surface is important for the detectability of surface biosignatures. The extent and distribution of habitable areas are influenced by external parameters that control the planet's climate, atmospheric circulation, and hydrological cycle. We explore these issues using the ROCKE-3D general circulation model, focusing on terrestrial water fluxes and thus the potential for the existence of complex life on land. Habitability is examined as a function of insolation and planet rotation for an Earth-like world with zero obliquity and eccentricity orbiting the Sun. We assess fractional habitability using an aridity index that measures the net supply of water to the land. Earth-like planets become "superhabitable" (a larger habitable surface area than Earth) as insolation and day-length increase because their climates become more equable, reminiscent of past warm periods on Earth when complex life was abundant and widespread. The most slowly rotating, most highly irradiated planets, though, occupy a hydrological regime unlike any on Earth, with extremely warm, humid conditions at high latitudes but little rain and subsurface water storage. Clouds increasingly obscure the surface as insolation increases, but visibility improves for modest increases in rotation period. Thus, moderately slowly rotating rocky planets with insolation near or somewhat greater than modern Earth's appear to be promising targets for surface characterization by a future direct imaging mission.

Del Genio, Anthony D.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets. III. Fractional Habitability from a Water Cycle Perspective

The habitable fraction of a planet's surface is important for the detectability of surface biosignatures. The extent and distribution of habitable areas are influenced by external parameters that control the planet's climate, atmospheric circulation, and hydrological cycle. We explore these issues using the ROCKE-3D general circulation model, focusing on terrestrial water fluxes and thus the potential for the existence of complex life on land. Habitability is examined as a function of insolation and planet rotation for an Earth-like world with zero obliquity and eccentricity orbiting the Sun. We assess fractional habitability using an aridity index that measures the net supply of water to the land. Earth-like planets become "superhabitable" (a larger habitable surface area than Earth) as insolation and day-length increase because their climates become more equable, reminiscent of past warm periods on Earth when complex life was abundant and widespread. The most slowly rotating, most highly irradiated planets, though, occupy a hydrological regime unlike any on Earth, with extremely warm, humid conditions at high latitudes but little rain and subsurface water storage. Clouds increasingly obscure the surface as insolation increases, but visibility improves for modest increases in rotation period. Thus, moderately slowly rotating rocky planets with insolation near or somewhat greater than modern Earth's appear to be promising targets for surface characterization by a future direct imaging mission.

Exoplanet atmospheric variability↗
NASA NTRS1988

Collisions with ice-volatile objects: Geological implications

The collision of the Earth with extra-terrestrial ice-volatile bodies is proposed as a mechanism to produce rapid changes in the geologic record. These bodies would be analogs of the ice satellites found for the Jovian planets and suspected for comets and certain low density bodies in the Asteroid belt. Five generic end-members are postulated: (1) water ice; (2) dry ice: carbon-carbon dioxide rich, (3) oceanic (chloride) ice; (4) sulfur-rich ice; (5) ammonia hydrate-rich ice; and (6) clathrate: methane-rich ice. Due to the volatile nature of these bodies, evidence for their impact with the Earth would be subtle and probably best reflected geochemically or in the fossil record. Actual boloids impacting the Earth may have a variable composition, generally some admixture with water ice. However for discussion purposes, only the effects of a dominant component will be treated. The general geological effects of such collisions, as a function of the dominant component would be: (1) rapid sea level rise unrelated to deglaciation, (2) decreased oceanic pH and rapid climatic warming or deglaciation; (3) increased paleosalinities; (4) increased acid rain; (5) increased oceanic pH and rapid carbonate deposition; and (6) rapid climatic warming or deglaciation.

Wilde, P.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Ice sheet margins and ice shelves

The effect of climate warming on the size of ice sheet margins in polar regions is considered. Particular attention is given to the possibility of a rapid response to warming on the order of tens to hundreds of years. It is found that the early response of the polar regions to climate warming would be an increase in the area of summer melt on the ice sheets and ice shelves. For sufficiently large warming (5-10C) the delayed effects would include the breakup of the ice shelves by an increase in ice drainage rates, particularly from the ice sheets. On the basis of published data for periodic changes in the thickness and melting rates of the marine ice sheets and fjord glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, it is shown that the rate of retreat (or advance) of an ice sheet is primarily determined by: bedrock topography; the basal conditions of the grounded ice sheet; and the ice shelf condition downstream of the grounding line. A program of satellite and ground measurements to monitor the state of ice sheet equilibrium is recommended.

Thomas, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Ice Shelves and Landfast Ice on the Antarctic Perimeter: Revised Scope of Work

Ice shelves respond quickly and profoundly to a warming climate. Within a decade after mean summertime temperature reaches approx. O C and persistent melt pending is observed, a rapid retreat and disintegration occurs. This link was documented for ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula region (the Larsen 'A', 'B' and Wilkins Ice shelves) by the results of a previous grant under ADRO-1. Modeling of ice flow and the effects of meltwater indicated that melt pending accelerates shelf breakup by increasing fracture penetration. SAR data supplemented an AVHRR- and SSM/I-based image analysis of extent and surface characteristic changes. This funded grant is a revised, scaled-down version of an earlier proposal under the ADRO-2 NRA. The overall objective remains the same: we propose to build on the previous study by examining other ice shelves of the Antarctic and incorporate an examination of the climate-related characteristics of landfast ice. The study now considers just a few shelf and fast ice areas for study, and is funded for two years. The study regions are the northeastern Ross Ice Shelf, the Larsen 'B' and 'C' shelves, fast ice and floating shelf ice in the Pine Island Glacier area, and fast ice along the Wilkes Land coast. Further, rather than investigating a host of shelf and fast ice processes, we will home in on developing a series of characteristics associated with climate change over shelf and fast ice areas. Melt pending and break-up are the end stages of a response to a warming climate that may begin with increased melt event frequency (which changes both albedo and emissivity temporarily), changing firn backscatter (due to percolation features), and possibly increased rifting of the shelf surface. Fast ice may show some of these same processes on a seasonal timescale, providing insight into shelf evolution.

Scambos, Ted↗
NASA NTRS2022

Disturbances in North American Boreal Forest and Arctic Tundra: Impacts, Interactions, and Responses

Ecosystems in the North American Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) experience a diverse set of disturbances associated with wildfire, permafrost dynamics, geomorphic processes, insect outbreaks and pathogens, extreme weather events, and human activity. Climate warming in the ABZ is occurring at over twice the rate of the global average, and as a result the extent, frequency, and severity of these disturbances are increasing rapidly. Disturbances in the ABZ span a wide gradient of spatiotemporal scales and have varying impacts on ecosystem properties and function. However, many ABZ disturbances are relatively understudied and have different sensitivities to climate and trajectories of recovery, resulting in considerable uncertainty in the impacts of climate warming and human land use on ABZ vegetation dynamics and in the interactions between disturbance types. Here we review the current knowledge of ABZ disturbances and their precursors, ecosystem impacts, temporal frequencies, spatial extents, and severity. We also summarize current knowledge of interactions and feedbacks among ABZ disturbances and characterize typical trajectories of vegetation loss and recovery in response to ecosystem disturbance using satellite time-series. We conclude with a summary of critical data and knowledge gaps and identify priorities for future study.

high-latitude↗
NASA NTRS2021

Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon Rainfall as Simulated in the PlioMIP2 Ensemble

The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; ∼3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar to modern geography and ∼400 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble, we analyse changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP by comparing them with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase in the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region, with an average increase of 2.5 mm/d, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in >90 % of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Though previous studies of future projections indicate a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase in that region in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We note that this effect will further depend on the long-term response of the vegetation to the CO2 forcing.

Mid-Pliocene↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climates of Warm Earth-Like Planets. I. 3D Model Simulations

We present a large ensemble of simulations of an Earth-like world with increasing insolation and rotation rate. Unlike previous work utilizing idealized aquaplanet congurations we focus our simulations on modern Earth-like topography. The orbital period is the same as modern Earth, but with zero obliquity and eccentricity. The atmosphere is 1 bar N2-dominated with CO2=400 ppmv and CH4=1 ppmv. The simulations include two types of oceans; one without ocean heat transport (OHT) between grid cells as has been commonly used in the exoplanet literature, while the other is a fully coupled dynamic bathtub type ocean. The dynamical regime transitions that occur as day length increases induce climate feedbacks producing cooler temperatures, rst via the reduction of water vapor with increasing rotation period despite decreasing shortwave cooling by clouds, and then via decreasing water vapor and increasing shortwave cloud cooling, except at the highest insolations. Simulations without OHT are more sensitive to insolation changes for fast rotations while slower rotations are relatively insensitive to ocean choice. OHT runs with faster rotations tend to be similar with gyres transporting heat poleward making them warmer than those without OHT. For slower rotations OHT is directed equator-ward and no high latitude gyres are apparent. Uncertainties in cloud parameterization preclude a precise determination of habitability but do not a affect robust aspects of exoplanet climate sensitivity. This is the first paper in a series that will investigate aspects of habitability in the simulations presented herein. The datasets from this study are open source and publicly available.

Planetary systems↗
NASA NTRS2023

Role of Snowfall Versus Air Temperatures for Greenland Ice Sheet Melt-Albedo Feedbacks

The Greenland Ice Sheet is a leading contributor to global sea-level rise because climate warming has enhanced surface meltwater runoff. Melt rates are particularly sensitive to air temperatures due to feedbacks with albedo. The primary melt-albedo feedback, fluctuation of seasonal snowlines, however, is determined not only by melt but also by antecedent snowfall which could delay the onset of dark glacier ice exposure. Here we investigate the role of snowfall versus air temperatures on ice sheet melt-albedo feedbacks using satellite remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data. We find several lines of evidence that snowline fluctuations are driven primarily by air temperatures and that snowfall is a secondary control. First, standardized linear regressions indicate that the timing of glacier ice exposure is nearly twice as sensitive to air temperatures than antecedent snowfall. Second, in 74% of the ablation zone by area, winter snowfall rates are not significantly correlated with winter air temperatures. This relationship implies that ice sheet melt due to climate warming is unlikely to be compensated by higher snowfall rates in the ablation zone. Third, we find no significant change in snowfall rates in the ablation zone during our 1981–2021 study period. Our findings demonstrate that snowfall is unlikely to reduce future ice sheet melt and that ice sheet meltwater runoff should be accurately predicted by air temperatures. Although given the importance of melt-albedo feedbacks, ice sheet models that parameterize albedo or are coupled with regional climate models are likely to provide the most accurate projections of mass loss.

J. C. Ryan↗
NASA NTRS2019

Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets. II. Rotational "Goldilocks" Zones for Fractional Habitability and Silicate Weathering

Planetary rotation rate has a significant effect on atmospheric circulation, where the strength of the Coriolis effect in part determines the efficiency of latitudinal heat transport, altering cloud distributions, surface temperatures, and precipitation patterns. In this study, we use the ROCKE-3D dynamic ocean general circulation model to study the effects of slow rotations and increased insolations on the "fractional habitability" and silicate weathering rate of an Earth-like world. Defining the fractional habitability f (h) to be the percentage of a planet's surface that falls in the 0 ≤ T ≤ 100 °C temperature regime, we find a moderate increase in f (h) with a 10% and 20% increase in insolation and a possible maximum in f (h) at sidereal day lengths between 8 and 32 times that of the modern Earth. By tracking precipitation and runoff, we further determine that there is a rotational regime centered on a 4 day period in which the silicate weathering rate is maximized and is particularly strongly peaked at higher overall insolations. Because of weathering's integral role in the long-term carbonate–silicate cycle, we suggest that climate stability may be strongly affected by the anticipated rotational evolution of temperate terrestrial-type worlds and should be considered a major factor in their study. In light of our results, we argue that planetary rotation period is an important factor to consider when determining the habitability of terrestrial worlds.

atmospheric effects↗
NASA NTRS2019

Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets. II. Rotational "Goldilocks" Zones for Fractional Habitability and Silicate Weathering

Planetary rotation rate has a significant effect on atmospheric circulation, where the strength of the Coriolis effect in part determines the efficiency of latitudinal heat transport, altering cloud distributions, surface temperatures, and precipitation patterns. In this study, we use the ROCKE-3D dynamic ocean general circulation model to study the effects of slow rotations and increased insolations on the "fractional habitability" and silicate weathering rate of an Earth-like world. Defining the fractional habitability f(sub h) to be the percentage of a planet's surface that falls in the 0 ≤ T ≤ 100 °C temperature regime, we find a moderate increase in f(sub h) with a 10% and 20% increase in insolation and a possible maximum in f(sub h) at sidereal day lengths between 8 and 32 times that of the modern Earth. By tracking precipitation and runoff, we further determine that there is a rotational regime centered on a 4 day period in which the silicate weathering rate is maximized and is particularly strongly peaked at higher overall insolations. Because of weathering's integral role in the long-term carbonate–silicate cycle, we suggest that climate stability may be strongly affected by the anticipated rotational evolution of temperate terrestrial-type worlds and should be considered a major factor in their study. In light of our results, we argue that planetary rotation period is an important factor to consider when determining the habitability of terrestrial worlds.

Atmospheric effects↗
NASA NTRS2016

Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

Human influence on climate↗
NASA NTRS1993

Possible solutions to the problem of channel formation on early Mars

A warm climate on early Mars would provide a natural, although not unique, explanation for the presence of fluvial networks on the ancient, heavily cratered terrains. Explaining how the climate could have been kept warm, however, is not easy. The idea that the global average surface temperature, T(sub s), could have been kept warm by a dense, CO2 atmosphere supplied by volcanism or impacts is no longer viable. It was shown that CO2 cloud formation should have kept T(sub s) well below freezing until approximately 2 b.y. ago, when the Sun had brightened to at least 86 percent of its present value. Warm equatorial regions on an otherwise cold planet seem unlikely because atmospheric CO2 would probably condense out at the poles. Warming by impact-produced dust in the atmosphere seems unlikely because the amount of warming expected for silicate dust particles is relatively small. Greenhouse warming by high altitude CO2 ice clouds seems unlikely because such are poor absorbers of infrared radiation at most wavelengths. Warming by atmospheric NH3 seems unlikely because NH3 is readily photodissociated and because N may have been in short supply as consequence of impact erosion and the high solubility of NH3. A brighter, mass-losing young Sun seems unlikely because stellar winds of the required strength were not observed on other solar-type stars. In short, most of the explanations for a warm Martian paleoclimate that were proposed in the past seem unlikely. One possibility that seems feasible from radiative/photochemical standpoint is that CH4 and associated hydrocarbon gases and particles contributed substantially to the greenhouse effect on early Mars. Methane is photochemically more stable than NH3 and the gases and particles that can be formed from it are all good absorbers of infrared radiation. The idea of a CH4-rich Martian paleoatmosphere was suggested a long time ago but has fallen out of favor because of perceived difficulties in maintaining a CH4-rich atmosphere. In particular, it is not obvious where the CH4 might come from, since volcanic gases (on Earth, at least) contain very little CH4. This difficulty could be largely overcome if early Mars was inhabited by microorganisms. Then, methanogenic bacteria living in sediments could presumably have supplied CH4 to the atmosphere in copious quantities.

Kasting, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Enhanced Habitability on High Obliquity Bodies near the Outer Edge of the Habitable Zone of Sun-Like Stars

High obliquity planets represent potentially extreme limits of terrestrial climate, as they exhibit large seasonality, a reversed annual-mean pole-to-equator gradient of stellar heating, and novel cryospheres. A suite of 3D global climate model simulations is performed for low and high obliquity planets with various stellar fluxes, CO2 concentrations, and initial conditions to explore the propensity for high obliquity climates to undergo global glaciation. We also simulate planets with thick CO2 or H2 atmospheres, such as those expected to develop near or beyond the outer edge of the habitable zone. We show that high obliquity planets are hotter than their low obliquity counterparts due to ice-albedo feedbacks for cold climates, and water vapor in warm climates. We suggest that the water vapor greenhouse trapping is greater on high obliquity bodies for a given global-mean temperature due to the different dynamical regimes that occur between the two states. While equatorial ice belts are stable at high obliquity in some climate regimes, it is substantially harder to achieve global glaciation than for a low obliquity planet. Temperate polar conditions can be present at high obliquity at forcings for which low obliquity planets would be in a hard snowball state. Furthermore, open ocean can persist even in the winter hemisphere and when global-mean temperatures are well below freezing. However, the influence of obliquity diminishes for dense atmospheres, in agreement with calculations from 1D energy balance models.

Planet and satellite atmospheres↗