Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “climate warming”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Premonsoon Aerosol Characterization and Radiative Effects Over the Indo-Gangetic Plains: Implications for Regional Climate Warming

The Himalayas have a profound effect on the South Asian climate and the regional hydrological cycle, as it forms a barrier for the strong monsoon winds and serves as an elevated heat source, thus controlling the onset and distribution of precipitation during the Indian summer monsoon. Recent studies have suggested that radiative heating by absorbing aerosols, such as dust and black carbon over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and slopes of the Himalayas, may significantly accelerate the seasonal warming of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas-Tibetan Plateau (HKHT) and influence the subsequent evolution of the summer monsoon. This paper presents a detailed characterization of aerosols over the IGP and their radiative effects during the premonsoon season (April-May-June) when dust transport constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading, using ground radiometric and spaceborne observations. During the dust-laden period, there is a strong response of surface shortwave flux to aerosol absorption indicated by the diurnally averaged forcing efficiency of -70 W/sq m per unit optical depth. The simulated aerosol single-scattering albedo, constrained by surface flux and aerosol measurements, is estimated to be 0.89+/- 0.01 (at approx.550 nm) with diurnal mean surface and top-of-atmosphere forcing values ranging from -11 to -79.8 W/sq m and +1.4 to +12 W/sq m, respectively, for the premonsoon period. The model-simulated solar heating rate profile peaks in the lower troposphere with enhanced heating penetrating into the middle troposphere (5-6 km), caused by vertically extended aerosols over the IGP with peak altitude of approx.5 km as indicated by spaceborne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization observations. On a long-term climate scale, our analysis, on the basis of microwave satellite measurements of tropospheric temperatures from 1979 to 2007, indicates accelerated annual mean warming rates found over the Himalayan-Hindu Kush region (0.21 C/decade+/-0.08 C/decade) and underscores the potential role of enhanced aerosol solar absorption in the maximum warming localized over the western Himalayas (0.26 C/decade f 0.09 C/decade) that significantly exceed the entire HKHT and global warming rates. We believe the accelerated warming rates reported here are critical to both the South Asian summer monsoon and hydro-glaciological resource variability in the Himalayan-Hindu Kush snowpack and therefore to the densely populated downstream regions.

Gautam, Ritesh↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data from: "Responses of alpine plant communities to climate warming"

The Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) was a common garden-climate manipulation experiment set up across an elevation gradient in Niwot Ridge, in the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA. The project sought to learn more about the effects of climate change on alpine and subalpine ecosystems, namely tree species ranges and alpine plant communities. Plots were experimentally manipulated using infrared heaters set up to warm plots to temperatures comparable to those projected for the year 2100. Other treatments include watering, and a combination of watering and heating. Three sites were set up at different elevations to study three tree species, with the highest-elevation “Alpine” site ( ~3540 m) containing twenty additional plots to study alpine plant communities. Data in this package originate from these unseeded alpine plots. To evaluate soil nitrogen availability given site treatments, resin bags were deployed, removed, and extracted annually to produce ammonium and nitrate/nitrite readings.--------------------------------------------------Data files within this archive are in comma-separated-values (.csv) and Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) formats. .csvs can be read and opened by Microsoft Excel, R, or any other simple text-editing software, and .xlsx files can be opened using Microsoft Excel. Geospatial data associated with this package are in .kml and ESRI shapefile (.shp) formats. .kml files can be read using Google Earth or Google Maps, and shapefiles can be read with any software compatible with the file type, such as QGIS or ESRI’s ArcMap suite.Data files in this package - excluding “Winkler_2019_ALPO_inorganic_N_allyears.csv” - are provided in both Microsoft Excel and .csv formats, for added accessibility and flexibility in workflows. File contents are identical.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Cities Exacerbate Climate Warming

Urbanization is a complex land transformation, not explicitly resolved within large-scale climate models. Long-term timeseries of high-resolution satellite data are essential to characterize it within land surface models and assess its contribution to surface temperature changes. The potential for additional surface warming from urbanization-induced land use change is investigated and de-coupled from that due to change in climate over the continental US using a decadal timescale. We show that, aggregated over the US, the summer mean urban-induced surface temperature increased by 0.15°C, with a warming of 0.24°C in cities built in vegetated areas and a cooling of 0.25°C in cities built in non-vegetated arid areas. This temperature change is comparable in magnitude to the 0.13°C/decade global warming trend observed over the last 50 years caused by increased CO2. We also show that the effect of urban-induced change on surface temperature is felt above and beyond that of the CO2 effect. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider urbanization feedback to put a limit on the worldwide mean temperature increase.

Lahouari Bounoua↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Diffusivity of Moist Static Energy and Implications for the Polar Amplification Response to Climate Warming

Energy balance models (EBMs) have been widely used in a range of climate problems, but the assumption of constant diffusivity in the parameterization of the moist static energy (MSE) flux can be hardly justified. We demonstrate in this study that the diffusive MSE flux can be derived from the basic energy balance equation with a few tolerable assumptions. The estimated diffusivity is both spatially and seasonally dependent, and its midlatitude average is then tested against several scaling theories for the midlatitude eddy diffusivity. The result supports the diffusivity theory of Held and Larichev (1996) modified for the moist atmosphere, affording a dynamics-based parameterization of MSE diffusivity. The implementation of the parameterization in an EBM leads to an interactive MSE diffusivity that accounts for the midlatitude eddy response to climate forcing perturbations. Under a uniform radiative forcing, the EBM with a diffusivity so parameterized produces a weakening of the midlatitude diffusivity and a modestly polar-amplified surface temperature response as an inevitable outcome under the dual constraints of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relation and the temperature gradient-dependent diffusivity, even in the absence of any poleward amplifying radiative feedbacks. As the consequence of more isothermal temperature and reduced diffusivity, the variance of the midlatitude surface temperature also decreases with warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate warming threatens the persistence of a community of disturbance-adapted native annual plants

With ongoing climate change, populations are expected to exhibit shifts in demographic performance that will alter where a species can persist. This presents unique challenges for managing plant populations and may require ongoing interventions, including in situ management or introduction into new locations. However, few studies have examined how climate change may affect plant demographic performance for a suite of species, or how effective management actions could be in mitigating climate change effects. Over the course of two experiments spanning 6 yr and four sites across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, United States, here we manipulated temperature, precipitation, and disturbance intensity, and quantified effects on the demography of eight native annual prairie species. Each year we planted seeds and monitored germination, survival, and reproduction. We found that disturbance strongly influenced demographic performance and that seven of the eight species had increasingly poor performance with warmer conditions. Across species and sites, we observed 11% recruitment (the proportion of seeds planted that survived to reproduction) following high disturbance, but just 3.9% and 2.3% under intermediate and low disturbance, respectively. Moreover, mean seed production following high disturbance was often more than tenfold greater than under intermediate and low disturbance. Importantly, most species exhibited precipitous declines in their population growth rates (λ) under warmer-than-ambient experimental conditions and may require more frequent disturbance intervention to sustain populations. Aristida oligantha, a C4 grass, was the only species to have λ increase with warmer conditions. These results suggest that rising temperatures may cause many native annual plant species to decline, highlighting the urgency for adaptive management practices that facilitate their restoration or introduction to newly suitable locations. Frequent and intense disturbances are critical to reduce competitors and promote native annuals’ persistence, but even such efforts may prove futile under future climate regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Enhanced Climatic Warming in the Tibetan Plateau Due to Double CO2: A Model Study

The NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) regional climate model (RegCM2) with time-dependent lateral meteorological fields provided by a 130-year transient increasing CO2 simulation of the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM) has been used to investigate the mechanism of enhanced ground temperature warming over the TP (Tibetan Plateau). From our model results, a remarkable tendency of warming increasing with elevation is found for the winter season, and elevation dependency of warming is not clearly recognized in the summer season. This simulated feature of elevation dependency of ground temperature is consistent with observations. Based on an analysis of surface energy budget, the short wave solar radiation absorbed at the surface plus downward long wave flux reaching the surface shows a strong elevation dependency, and is mostly responsible for enhanced surface warming over the TP. At lower elevations, the precipitation forced by topography is enhanced due to an increase in water vapor supply resulted from a warming in the atmosphere induced by doubling CO2. This precipitation enhancement must be associated with an increase in clouds, which results in a decline in solar flux reaching surface. At higher elevations, large snow depletion is detected in the 2xCO2run. It leads to a decrease in albedo, therefore more solar flux is absorbed at the surface. On the other hand, much more uniform increase in downward long wave flux reaching the surface is found. The combination of these effects (i.e. decrease in solar flux at lower elevations, increase in solar flux at higher elevation and more uniform increase in downward long wave flux) results in elevation dependency of enhanced ground temperature warming over the TP.

Chen, Baode↗
NASA NTRS2010

Aerosol-Induced Changes of Convective Cloud Anvils Produce Strong Climate Warming

The effect of aerosol on clouds poses one of the largest uncertainties in estimating the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Small human-induced perturbations to cloud characteristics via aerosol pathways can create a change in the top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing of hundreds of Wm(exp-2) . Here we focus on links between aerosol and deep convective clouds of the Atlantic and Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zones, noting that the aerosol environment in each region is entirely different. The tops of these vertically developed clouds consisting of mostly ice can reach high levels of the atmosphere, overshooting the lower stratosphere and reaching altitudes greater than 16 km. We show a link between aerosol, clouds and the free atmosphere wind profile that can change the magnitude and sign of the overall climate radiative forcing. We find that increased aerosol loading is associated with taller cloud towers and anvils. The taller clouds reach levels of enhanced wind speeds that act to spread and thin the anvi1 clouds, increasing areal coverage and decreasing cloud optical depth. The radiative effect of this transition is to create a positive radiative forcing (warming) at top-of-atmosphere. Furthermore we introduce the cloud optical depth (r), cloud height (Z) forcing space and show that underestimation of radiative forcing is likely to occur in cases of non homogenous clouds. Specifically, the mean radiative forcing of towers and anvils in the same scene can be several times greater than simply calculating the forcing from the mean cloud optical depth in the scene. Limitations of the method are discussed, alternative sources of aerosol loading are tested and meteorological variance is restricted, but the trend of taller clouds; increased and thinner anvils associated with increased aerosol loading remains robust through all the different tests and perturbations.

Koren, I.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate warming and elevated CO 2 alter peatland soil carbon sources and stability

Peatlands are an important carbon (C) reservoir storing one-third of global soil organic carbon (SOC), but little is known about the fate of these C stocks under climate change. Here, we examine the impact of warming and elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration (eCO 2 ) on the molecular composition of SOC to infer SOC sources (microbe-, plant- and fire-derived) and stability in a boreal peatland. We show that while warming alone decreased plant- and microbe-derived SOC due to enhanced decomposition, warming combined with eCO 2 increased plant-derived SOC compounds. We further observed increasing root-derived inputs (suberin) and declining leaf/needle-derived inputs (cutin) into SOC under warming and eCO 2 . The decline in SOC compounds with warming and gains from new root-derived C under eCO 2 , suggest that warming and eCO 2 may shift peatland C budget towards pools with faster turnover. Together, our results indicate that climate change may increase inputs and enhance decomposition of SOC potentially destabilising C storage in peatlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Climate warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2 - Simulations with a multilayer coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal energy balance model

The transient response of the climate to increasing CO2 is studied using a modified version of the multilayer energy balance model of Peng et al. (1982). The main characteristics of the model are described. Latitudinal and seasonal distributions of planetary albedo, latitude-time distributions of zonal mean temperatures, and latitudinal distributions of evaporation, water vapor transport, and snow cover generated from the model and derived from actual observations are analyzed and compared. It is observed that in response to an atmospheric doubling of CO2, the model reaches within 1/e of the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature in 9-35 years for the probable range of vertical heat diffusivity in the ocean. For CO2 increases projected by the National Research Council (1983), the model's transient response in annually and globally averaged surface temperatures is 60-75 percent of the corresponding equilibrium response, and the disequilibrium increases with increasing heat diffusivity of the ocean.

Li, Peng↗
NASA NTRS1999

Response to CO2 Transient Increase in the GISS Coupled Model: Regional Coolings in a Warming Climate

The (GISS) Goddard Institute for Space Studies coupled atmosphere-ocean model is used to investigate the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 by comparing a compounded 1 percent CO2 increase experiment with a control simulation. After 70 years of integration, the global surface air temperature in the 1 percent CO2 experiment is 1.43 C warmer. In spite of this global warming, there are two distinct regions, the northern Atlantic Ocean and the southern Pacific Ocean, where the surface air temperature is up to 4 C cooler. This situation is maintained by two positive feedbacks: a local effect on convection in the South Pacific and a non-local impact on the meridional circulation in the North Atlantic. The poleward transport of latent energy and dry static energy by the atmosphere is greater in the 1 percent CO2 experiment, caused by warming and therefore increased water vapor and greater greenhouse capacity at lower latitudes. The larger atmospheric transports tend to reduce upward vertical fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean surface at high latitudes, which has the effect of stabilizing the ocean, reducing both convection and the thermohaline circulation. With less convection, less warm water is brought up from below, and with a reduced North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (by 30 percent at time of CO2 doubling), the poleward energy transport by the oceans decreases. The colder water then leads to further reductions in evaporation, decreases of salinity at high latitudes, continued stabilization of the ocean, and maintenance of reduced convection and meridional overturning. Although sea ice decreases globally, it increases in the cooling regions which reduces the overall climate sensitivity; its effect is most pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere. Tropical warming has been observed over the past several decades; if modeling studies such as this and others which have produced similar effects are valid, these processes may already be beginning.

Russell, Gary L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microbiome Adaptation Could Amplify Modeled Projections of Global Soil Carbon Loss With Climate Warming

Warming alters soil microbial traits through ecological and evolutionary processes, directly influencing the decomposition of organic matter, which significantly affects global soil carbon emissions. Yet, soil carbon models largely ignore these processes and their implications for global responses to warming. Here, we incorporate eco-evolutionary theory into a mechanistic model describing microbial soil carbon decomposition to address the question of whether such processes could have consequential effects on climate carbon feedbacks globally. We assume that a key trait of microbes, their resource allocation to production of exoenzymes (which facilitate decomposition of organic matter)—is optimized to environmental temperatures by natural selection. We find that eco-evolutionary optimization results in microbes allocating more resources to enzyme production under warming. When applied at the global scale, eco-evolutionary optimization enhances the biological realism of soil carbon models and significantly amplifies global soil carbon loss by 2100. Our results highlight the significant potential of microbial eco-evolutionary responses to influence carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, and motivate an urgent need for more comprehensive data to accurately quantify the adaptive potential of microbiomes in response to climate change.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Market expectations of a warming climate

In this paper, we compare prices of financial derivatives whose payouts are based on future weather outcomes to CMIP5 climate model predictions as well as observed weather station data across eight cities in the US from 2001 through 2020. Derivative prices respond both to short-term weather forecasts for the next two weeks and longer-term warming trends. We show that the long-term trends in derivative prices are comparable to station-level data and climate model output. The one exception is February in the northeastern US, where financial markets price in a polar vortex-induced cooling effect, a recent scientific finding that was not present in the older CMIP5 climate output. When looking at the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in trends, futures prices are more aligned with climate model output than observed weather station trends, suggesting that market participants closely align their expectations with scientific projections rather than recent observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Expansion of high-latitude deciduous forests driven by interactions between climate warming and fire: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication. More information in the related references. The dataset is a model (ecosys) output used in a study that examined the potential future shifts in high-latitude vegetation types (PFTs) driven by changes in 21st century climate and fire. The study highlights the importance of mechanistically representing differences in plant functional traits on current and possible 21st century trajectories of Alaskan PFTs. This dataset package includes 13 files in pdf, csv, and nc formats.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Eastward-shifting boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation amplifies North America heatwave and wildfire risks in warming climate

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a key component of tropical climate variability, characterized by eastward and northeastward propagation of organized convection across the Indo-Pacific region. BSISO influences weather and climate extremes through atmospheric teleconnections, but its future changes and related extremes remain unclear. Here, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find that under a high-emission scenario, BSISO convection will shift eastward by ~3° (~300 km) in 2065–2099, driven by moisture profile changes associated with sea surface temperature warming over central-to-eastern Pacific. This eastward-shifted BSISO convection, along with a northward expansion of the westerly jet, strengthens the BSISO teleconnections that extend into broader areas of North America. These changes will increase the BSISO-related heatwave risks by 23% and wildfire risks by 3.5 times over northern North America compared to present-day conditions. The findings underscore the amplification of BSISO’s influence on extreme risks of extreme weather, emphasizing the need for improved adaptation and mitigation strategies for future climates.

BSISO teleconnection↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming

Abstract. Anthropogenic warming in the Arctic is causing hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw, with implications for flows of water, carbon, and energy from terrestrial biomes to coastal zones. To better understand the likely impacts of these changes, we used a hydrology model driven by meteorological data from atmospheric reanalysis and two global climate models for the period 1980–2100. The hydrology model accounts for soil freeze–thaw processes and was applied across the pan-Arctic drainage basin. The simulations point to greater changes over northernmost areas of the basin underlain by permafrost and to the western Arctic. An acceleration of simulated river discharge over the recent past is commensurate with trends drawn from observations and reported in other studies. Between early-century (2000–2019) and late-century (2080–2099) periods, the model simulations indicate an increase in annual total runoff of 17 %–25 %, while the proportion of runoff emanating from subsurface pathways is projected to increase by 13 %–30 %, with the largest changes noted in summer and autumn and across areas with permafrost. Most notably, runoff contributions to river discharge shift to northern parts of the Arctic Basin that contain greater amounts of soil carbon. Each season sees an increase in subsurface runoff; spring is the only season where surface runoff dominates the rise in total runoff, and summer experiences a decline in total runoff despite an increase in the subsurface component. The greater changes that are seen in areas where permafrost exists support the notion that increased soil thaw is shifting hydrological contributions to more subsurface flow. The manifestations of warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw will impact Arctic terrestrial and coastal environments through altered river flows and the materials they transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modulation of regional carbon uptake by AMOC and alkalinity changes in the subpolar North Atlantic under a warming climate

The slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated consequences on ocean carbon uptake could have large implications for the Earth's climate system and its global carbon cycle. This study analyzes ten Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reveals that the regional carbon uptake in the subpolar North Atlantic under a high CO 2 emission scenario moderately correlates with the decline in AMOC at 40°N. AMOC transports warm and salty subtropical waters to the subpolar regions. Models with stronger AMOC slowdown generally exhibit weaker surface warming and larger decline of surface salinity and alkalinity. We consider two plausible mechanisms linking the AMOC slowdown to the decline of regional CO 2 uptake: the reduction in surface alkalinity and diminished subduction. The decline of surface salinity and alkalinity reduces the ocean's capacity to buffer acids leading to a reduced CO 2 uptake. This important contribution is unique to the North Atlantic. Diminished convective mixing and subduction of surface water can further decrease the downward transport of anthropogenic carbon, as also shown in previous research. The centennial trends of p CO 2 are decomposed into four components driven by temperature, salinity, alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon, revealing that alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon are both significant contributors. The alkalinity-driven p CO 2 essentially follows surface salinity, establishing the linkage between AMOC slowdown and alkalinity decline. Our results indicate that alkalinity changes are important for the interplay between AMOC and the regional carbon sequestration ability across the late 20 th and the entirety of the 21 st century in the subpolar North Atlantic.

AMOC↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Growing Freshwater Lens in the Arctic Ocean With Sustained Climate Warming Disrupts Marine Ecosystem Function

One of the most robust changes in the hydrological cycle predicted by Earth System Models (ESMs) during the remainder of 21st century is an increase in the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration (P-E) in arctic and boreal regions. We explore the long-term consequences of this change for marine ecosystems in the Arctic Ocean using the Community Earth System Model forced with a business as usual scenario of future greenhouse gas concentrations. We find that by the year 2300 increases in freshwater delivery considerably reduce Arctic Ocean surface salinity, creating a freshwater lens that has far-reaching impacts on marine biogeochemistry. The expanding freshwater lens limits vertical nutrient supply into the euphotic zone by enhancing vertical stratification and accelerating surface lateral mixing with surface waters in the North Atlantic, which become increasingly nutrient depleted from weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The resulting increase in nutrient stress reduces marine export production in the Arctic Ocean by 53% in 2300 relative to the 1990s and triggers a shift in community composition with small phytoplankton replacing diatoms. At the same time, the seasonal timing of export production undergoes a 2-month forward shift, with the peak advancing from July to May. This suggests that the threat to food webs and higher trophic levels may intensify after the year 2100 as gains in productivity from sea ice loss saturate and freshwater impacts on nutrient stress continue to strengthen. Our analysis highlights the critical importance of changing terrestrial hydrology and land-ocean coupling as drivers of long-term biogeochemical change in the Arctic Ocean and the necessity of multi-century climate change projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗