Results for “climate observations” — Page 3

DOE OSTI2023

Puerto Rico Historical Climate Analysis: A closer look at complex tropical terrain

Small tropical islands like Puerto Rico are especially vulnerable to climate change impacts, yet are often underrepresented in most datasets because the spatial resolution is too coarse to sufficiently cover their complex terrain. This study was done to better understand how the climate has changed in the various regions of Puerto Rico, which will support a transition to renewable energy and aid in projecting future climate impacts on the residents and land they live on. This study used multiple datasets including Daymet, a daily surface weather and climatological summary; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5); and station observations. The climate variables examined here include minimum and maximum near-surface air temperature, daily precipitation, incident shortwave radiation, and large-scale upper atmosphere conditions. The time periods cover the years 1950–2019. Results in both Daymet and station observations show long-term warming trends throughout every season. In particular, the minimum winter temperatures increased the most compared with maximum and mean air temperature. Northeast Puerto Rico, where the majority of the island’s population is located, experienced the largest warming. Summertime precipitation has decreased over time, and spring and fall precipitation has increased. The largest increase in fall is because there has been more available precipitable water, lower sea-level pressure, and favorable cyclonic circulations from the trade winds over the past seven decades. Overall, wet days are getting wetter, while dry days are getting drier. While there are good solar energy potential, we see a long-term decreasing trend in shortwave radiation over time in all seasons across entire island, possibly due to the increase of cloud cover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scalable Multi-Facility Workflows for Artificial Intelligence Applications in Climate Research

Earth observation satellites and earth system models are sources of vast, multi-modal datasets that are invaluable for advancing climate and environmental research. However, their scale and complexity pose significant challenges for processing and analysis. In this paper we discuss our experiences in developing and using a scientific research application using an automated multi-facility workflow that orchestrates data collection, preprocessing, artificial intelligence (AI) inferencing, and data movement across diverse computational resources, leveraging the Advanced Computing Ecosystem Testbed at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). We demonstrate that our workflow can be seamlessly integrated and orchestrated across research facilities managed by different federal agencies, thus allowing users to extract new scientific insights from climate datasets. The experimental results indicate that the multi-facility workflow significantly reduces processing time, enhances scalability, and maintains high efficiency across varying workloads. Notably, our workflow processes 12,000 high-resolution satellite images in just 44 seconds using 80 workers distributed across 10 nodes on the OLCF systems. Such high throughput is essential for dynamic tokenization and sharding of petascale satellite data for distributed AI model training and inferencing at scale across thousands of GPUs.

Kurihana, Takuya [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000156698565)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of present-day extreme precipitation over the United States: an inter-comparison of convection and dynamic permitting configurations of E3SMv1

Abstract Accurate simulation of the present-day characteristics of mean and extreme precipitation at regional scales remains a challenge for Earth system models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model physics such as convective parameterization (CP), and coarse resolution. High horizontal resolution (HR, ∼25 km) and multiscale modeling framework (MMF, i.e. replacing conventional CP with embedded km-scale cloud-resolving models) are two promising directions that could help improve the interaction between subgrid-scale physical processes and large-scale climate. Here, we evaluate simulated extreme precipitation over the United States (US) across three configurations (i.e. low-resolution [LR], HR, and MMF) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and intercompare them against two gridded observation datasets (climate prediction center daily US precipitation and integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement). We assess the model’s ability to simulate very heavy seasonal precipitation (illustrated by the difference between the 99th and 90th percentile values) as well as the spatial distributions of several extreme precipitation indices defined by the expert team on climate change detection and indices. Our results show that both the dry (i.e. consecutive dry days (CDD)) and wet (i.e. consecutive wet days, maximum 5 day precipitation, and very wet days) extremes evaluated herein show some improvement as well as degradation with MMF and HR relative to LR. These results vary across seasons and US subregions. For instance, only the very heavy precipitation of winter is improved with MMF and HR. Both configurations alleviate the well-known drizzling bias evident in LR across both winter and summer in many parts of the US, largely due to the overall improvement in intensity and frequency of precipitation. Additionally, our results suggest that while E3SMv1-MMF has higher intensity rates when it does rain, it has too many CDD during the summer, contributing to a low mean precipitation bias.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

The frequency, severity, and extent of climate extremes in future will have an impact on human well-being, ecosystems, and the effectiveness of emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration strategies. The specific objectives of this study were to downscale climate data for US weather stations and analyze future trends in meteorological drought and temperature extremes over continental United States (CONUS). We used data from 4161 weather stations across the CONUS to downscale future precipitation projections from three Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), specifically for the high emission scenario SSP5 8.5. Comparing historic observations with climate model projections revealed a significant bias in total annual precipitation days and total precipitation amounts. The average number of annual precipitation days across CONUS was projected to be 205 ± 26, 184 ± 33, and 181 ± 25 days in the BCC, CanESM, and UKESM models, respectively, compared to 91 ± 24 days in the observed data. Analyzing the duration of drought periods in different ecoregions of CONUS showed an increase in the number of drought months in the future (2023–2052) compared to the historical period (1989–2018). The analysis of precipitation and temperature changes in various ecoregions of CONUS revealed an increased frequency of droughts in the future, along with longer durations of warm spells. Eastern temperate forests and the Great Plains, which encompass the majority of CONUS agricultural lands, are projected to experience higher drought counts in the future. Drought projections show an increasing trend in future drought occurrences due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Our high-resolution climate projections can inform policy makers about the hotspots and their anticipated future trajectories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Matilda v1.0: An R package for probabilistic climate projections using a reduced complexity climate model

A primary advantage to using reduced complexity climate models (RCMs) has been their ability to quickly conduct probabilistic climate projections, a key component of uncertainty quantification in many impact studies and multisector systems. Providing frameworks for such analyses has been a target of several RCMs used in studies of the future co-evolution of the human and Earth systems. In this paper, we present Matilda, an open-science R software package that facilitates probabilistic climate projection analysis, implemented here using the Hector simple climate model in a seamless and easily applied framework. The primary goal of Matilda is to provide the user with a turn-key method to build parameter sets from literature-based prior distributions, run Hector iteratively to produce perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs), weight ensembles for realism against observed historical climate data, and compute probabilistic projections for different climate variables. This workflow gives the user the ability to explore viable parameter space and propagate uncertainty to model ensembles with just a few lines of code. The package provides significant freedom to select different scoring criteria and algorithms to weight ensemble members, as well as the flexibility to implement custom criteria. Additionally, the architecture of the package simplifies the process of building and analyzing PPEs without requiring significant programming expertise, to accommodate diverse use cases. We present a case study that provides illustrative results of a probabilistic analysis of mean global surface temperature as an example of the software application.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Observational Data for Next-Generation Climate Model Evaluation: Requirements, Considerations, and Best Practices

Climate model simulations are an important source of information about our planet’s climate system and also enable informed decision-making under different future scenarios. As a new archive of results from the next generation of climate models is anticipated to become available with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), the need to develop efficient and robust methods to evaluate models is paramount. Observations are an integral part of model evaluation, providing a means to quantify and understand the degree to which climate models can faithfully reproduce Earth system processes. Such analysis is critical for constraining climate projections, identifying areas of focus for model development, and assisting analysts in deciphering the utility of models for specific applications. Observations of Earth system come from a diversity of sources, span different space–time domains, and are produced by different communities, and each dataset features different data structures and formats, metadata standards, and its own unique uncertainties. Uncertainties in an observational dataset may stem from gaps in temporal and spatial coverage, instrumentation errors, or assumptions in retrieval and processing methods. How then does one ensure that observational data are ready for use and utilized in the most appropriate way for robust, rapid, and routine climate model evaluation? The CMIP7 Model Benchmarking Task Team with input from the broader climate modeling, model evaluation, and observational data communities present a vision and considerations for best practices toward the optimal and appropriate use of observational data to support next-generation climate model evaluation.

Climate models↗

DOE OSTI2024

Separate the Role of Southern and Northern Extra‐Tropical Pacific in Tropical Pacific Climate Variability

Abstract Observational and modeling studies have elucidated the influential role played by the southern and northern extratropical Pacific (SEP and NEP) forcing in shaping dynamics of tropical Pacific climate variability. However, the relative importance of the NEP and SEP and the timescale on which they impact the tropics remain unclear. Using a linear inverse model (LIM) that selectively incorporates or excludes tropical‐extratropical coupling, we find a reduction in tropical interannual variability (∼40%) and low‐frequency (sub‐decadal to decadal) variability in the southeastern tropical Pacific region (∼70%) in the absence of SEP. Conversely, the absence of NEP yields no significant impact on tropical interannual variability but markedly diminishes low‐frequency variability in the central tropical Pacific region (∼70%). LIM and statistic diagnostics on CMIP6 models show the low‐frequency to total variability ratio in the tropical Pacific depending on their NEP and SEP representation. Models with more (less) low‐frequency power tend to show stronger NEP (SEP) dynamics.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2023

More frequent atmospheric rivers slow the seasonal recovery of Arctic sea ice

In recent decades, Arctic sea ice coverage experienced a drastic decline in winter, when sea ice is expected to recover following the melting season. It is unclear to what extent atmospheric processes such as atmospheric rivers (ARs), intense corridors of moisture transport, contribute to this reduced recovery of sea ice. Here, in this study, using observations and climate model simulations we find a robust frequency increase in ARs in early winter over the Barents-Kara Seas and the central Arctic (ABK) between 1979 and 2021. The moisture carried by more frequent ARs has intensified surface downward longwave radiation and rainfall, caused stronger melting of thin, fragile ice cover, and slowed the seasonal recovery of sea ice, accounting for 34% of the sea ice cover decline in ABK. A series of model ensemble experiments suggests that, in addition to a uniform AR increase in response to anthropogenic warming, tropical Pacific variability also contributes to the observed Arctic AR changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Process Model for ITCZ Narrowing under Warming Highlights Clear-Sky Water Vapor Feedbacks and Gross Moist Stability Changes in AMIP Models

Tropical areas with mean upward motion—and as such the zonal-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)—are projected to contract under global warming. To understand this process, a simple model based on dry static energy and moisture equations is introduced for zonally symmetric overturning driven by sea surface temperature (SST). Processes governing ascent area fraction and zonal mean precipitation are examined for insight into Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Bulk parameters governing radiative feedbacks and moist static energy transport in the simple model are estimated from the AMIP ensemble. Uniform warming in the simple model produces ascent area contraction and precipitation intensification—similar to observations and climate models. Contributing effects include stronger water vapor radiative feedbacks, weaker cloud-radiative feedbacks, stronger convection-circulation feedbacks, and greater poleward moisture export. The simple model identifies parameters consequential for the inter-AMIP-model spread; an ensemble generated by perturbing parameters governing shortwave water vapor feedbacks and gross moist stability changes under warming tracks inter-AMIP-model variations with a correlation coefficient ~0.46. Here, the simple model also predicts the multimodel mean changes in tropical ascent area and precipitation with reasonable accuracy. Furthermore, the simple model reproduces relationships among ascent area precipitation, ascent strength, and ascent area fraction observed in AMIP models. A substantial portion of the inter-AMIP-model spread is traced to the spread in how moist static energy and vertical velocity profiles change under warming, which in turn impact the gross moist stability in deep convective regions—highlighting the need for observational constraints on these quantities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Increasing Hurricane Intensification Rate Near the US Atlantic Coast

Hurricanes often cause severe damage and loss of life, and storms that intensify close to the coast pose a particularly serious threat. While changes in hurricane intensification and environment have been examined at basin scales previously, near-coastal changes have not been adequately explored. In this study, we address this using a suite of observations and climate model simulations. Over the 40-year period of 1979–2018, the mean 24-hr hurricane intensification rate increased by ~1.2 kt 6-hr –1 near the US Atlantic coast. However, a significant increase in intensification did not occur near the Gulf coast over the same period. The enhanced hurricane intensification along the Atlantic coast is consistent with an increasingly favorable dynamic and thermodynamic environment there, which is well simulated by climate models over the historical period. Further, multi-model projections suggest a continued enhancement of the storm environment and hurricane intensification near the Atlantic coast in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

North‐East Peri‐Tethyan Water Column Deoxygenation and Euxinia at the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum

Abstract The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is associated with climatic change and biological turnover. It shares features with the Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs) of the Mesozoic, such as transient global warming and biogeochemical perturbations. However, the PETM experienced a more muted expansion of marine anoxia compared to the Mesozoic OAEs (especially OAE2), with geographically limited evidence for photic zone euxinia (PZE). We explore the extent and drivers of marine deoxygenation during the PETM using biomarkers for water column euxinia and anoxia as well as an intermediate complexity Earth system model (cGEnIE). These reveal that the water column in the North‐East Peri‐Tethys became anoxic, with euxinic conditions reaching the photic zone (PZE) during the PETM. Our model shows that euxinia developed due to a global increase in the ocean nutrient inventory with concomitant oxygen consumption, similar to findings for OAE2. The particularly strong regional response in the NE Peri‐Tethys appears to arise from a combination of global CO 2 ‐weathering forcing, regionally restricted circulation and upwelling of sulphidic thermocline waters. Unlike OAE2, anoxia and PZE do not become widespread in our PETM simulations, consistent with new and existing geochemical and biological proxy data. This globally muted response could result from reduced biogeochemical feedbacks to climate forcing relative to the mid‐Cretaceous climate. Our observations suggest that similar mechanisms operated in response to disparate Cenozoic (PETM) and Mesozoic (OAEs) transient global warming events, while also highlighting that background conditions are crucial in modulating the sensitivity of Earth's system to them.

Behrooz, L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Going Off Grid: A Comparative Study of the Lagrangian and Eulerian Perspectives of New Particle Formation Events

New particle formation and growth (NPF&G) is the process by which ultrafine particles are formed from gas-phase precursors. NPF&G is the dominant source of global aerosol number with important influences on climate. Most observations of NPF&G events are conducted at stationary sites; however, NPF&G observed from stationary sites is influenced by gradual or rapid changes in the air masses passing over the site, complicating NPF&G analysis. In this work, we use observations and a 3D aerosol model to compare aerosol size distributions at a stationary site (Southern Great Plains [SGP] observatory, Oklahoma, USA) and along Lagrangian trajectories crossing the site. The model simulates the NPF&G events reasonably well at SGP. Using the model to compare the Lagrangian and stationary perspectives, we can explain previously unanalyzable days with some evidence of NPF&G as either non-event or analyzable NPF&G days. We find most of the unanalyzable NPF&G days are due to isolated and inhomogeneous NPF&G occurring upwind of the stationary site, often in the outflow of urban regions. Finally, we compare formation rates of 3 nm particles, growth rates, and the survival probability of 3 nm particles growing to 25 nm between the stationary and Lagrangian perspectives. Because of the much larger number of analyzable days along the Lagrangian trajectories, this perspective potentially provides more robust statistics and better characterization of NPF&G event extremes. Our method for extracting chemical/physical properties along Lagrangian trajectories from 3D models can be applied to a wide range of science questions.

O’Donnell, Samuel E. [Colorado State Univ., Fort C↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decadal Thermal Variability of the Upper Southern Ocean: Zonal Asymmetry

Abstract As the major sink of anthropogenic heat, the Southern Ocean has shown quasi-symmetric, deep-reaching warming since the mid-twentieth century. In comparison, the shorter-term heat storage pattern of the Southern Ocean is more complex and has notable impacts on regional climate and marine ecosystems. By analyzing observational datasets and climate model simulations, this study reveals that the Southern Ocean exhibits prominent decadal (>8 years) variability extending to ∼700-m depth and is characterized by out-of-phase changes in the Pacific and Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors. Changes in the Pacific sector are larger in magnitude than those in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors and dominate the total heat storage of the Southern Ocean on decadal time scales. Instead of heat uptake through surface heat fluxes, these asymmetric variations arise primarily from wind-driven heat redistribution. Pacemaker and preindustrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) suggest that these variations in Southern Ocean winds arise primarily from natural variability of the tropical Pacific, as represented by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Through atmospheric teleconnection, the positive phase of the IPO gives rise to higher-than-normal sea level pressure and anticyclonic wind anomalies in the 50°–70°S band of the Pacific sector. These winds lead to warming of 0–700 m by driving the convergence of warm water. The opposite processes, involving cyclonic winds and upper-layer divergence, occur in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sector. These findings aid our understanding of the time-varying heat storage of the Southern Ocean and provide useful implications on initialized decadal climate prediction.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

MERIT-Plus Dataset: Delineation of endorheic basins in 5 and 15 min upscaled river networks

Endorheic drainage basins, those inland basins not connected directly to ocean, are essential for hydrological modeling of global and regional water balances, land surface water storage, gravity anomalies, sea level rise, etc. Within many hydrological model frameworks, river basins are defined by digital river networks through their flow direction and connectivity datasets. Here we present an improvement to gridded flow direction data and its derivatives produced from upscaled global 5 and 15 arc minute MERIT networks. We explicitly label endorheic and exorheic drainage basins and alter the delineation of endorheic basins by merging small inland watersheds to the adjacent host basins. The resulting datasets have a significantly reduced number of endorheic basins while preserving the total land portion of those basins since most of the merged catchments were inside other larger endorheic areas. We developed and present here the endorheic basin delineation method. This method performs an analysis of the contributing river and basin geometry relative to the location of the flow end point (i.e. potential endorheic lake), proximity of the latter to the drainage basin boundary and the elevation difference between the basin's lowest point and potential spillover location at the basin boundary. The new digital river network was validated using the University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model by comparing the water balance of endorheic inland depressions with modeled accumulation of water in their inland lakes based on the observed historical climate drivers used by WBM.

Earth Systems↗

DOE OSTI2023

MERIT-Plus Dataset: Delineation of endorheic basins in 5 and 15 min upscaled river networks

Endorheic drainage basins, those inland basins not connected directly to ocean, are essential for hydrological modeling of global and regional water balances, land surface water storage, gravity anomalies, sea level rise, etc. Within many hydrological model frameworks, river basins are defined by digital river networks through their flow direction and connectivity datasets. Here we present an improvement to gridded flow direction data and its derivatives produced from upscaled global 5 and 15 arc minute MERIT networks. We explicitly label endorheic and exorheic drainage basins and alter the delineation of endorheic basins by merging small inland watersheds to the adjacent host basins. The resulting datasets have a significantly reduced number of endorheic basins while preserving the total land portion of those basins since most of the merged catchments were inside other larger endorheic areas. We developed and present here the endorheic basin delineation method. This method performs an analysis of the contributing river and basin geometry relative to the location of the flow end point (i.e. potential endorheic lake), proximity of the latter to the drainage basin boundary and the elevation difference between the basin's lowest point and potential spillover location at the basin boundary. The new digital river network was validated using the University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model by comparing the water balance of endorheic inland depressions with modeled accumulation of water in their inland lakes based on the observed historical climate drivers used by WBM.

Earth Systems↗

DOE OSTI2023

MERIT-Plus Dataset: Delineation of endorheic basins in 5 and 15 min upscaled river networks

Endorheic drainage basins, those inland basins not connected directly to ocean, are essential for hydrological modeling of global and regional water balances, land surface water storage, gravity anomalies, sea level rise, etc. Within many hydrological model frameworks, river basins are defined by digital river networks through their flow direction and connectivity datasets. Here we present an improvement to gridded flow direction data and its derivatives produced from upscaled global 5 and 15 arc minute MERIT networks. We explicitly label endorheic and exorheic drainage basins and alter the delineation of endorheic basins by merging small inland watersheds to the adjacent host basins. The resulting datasets have a significantly reduced number of endorheic basins while preserving the total land portion of those basins since most of the merged catchments were inside other larger endorheic areas. We developed and present here the endorheic basin delineation method. This method performs an analysis of the contributing river and basin geometry relative to the location of the flow end point (i.e. potential endorheic lake), proximity of the latter to the drainage basin boundary and the elevation difference between the basin's lowest point and potential spillover location at the basin boundary. The new digital river network was validated using the University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model by comparing the water balance of endorheic inland depressions with modeled accumulation of water in their inland lakes based on the observed historical climate drivers used by WBM.

Earth Systems↗

DOE OSTI2023

MERIT-Plus Dataset: Delineation of endorheic basins in 5 and 15 min upscaled river networks

Endorheic drainage basins, those inland basins not connected directly to ocean, are essential for hydrological modeling of global and regional water balances, land surface water storage, gravity anomalies, sea level rise, etc. Within many hydrological model frameworks, river basins are defined by digital river networks through their flow direction and connectivity datasets. Here we present an improvement to gridded flow direction data and its derivatives produced from upscaled global 5 and 15 arc minute MERIT networks. We explicitly label endorheic and exorheic drainage basins and alter the delineation of endorheic basins by merging small inland watersheds to the adjacent host basins. The resulting datasets have a significantly reduced number of endorheic basins while preserving the total land portion of those basins since most of the merged catchments were inside other larger endorheic areas. We developed and present here the endorheic basin delineation method. This method performs an analysis of the contributing river and basin geometry relative to the location of the flow end point (i.e. potential endorheic lake), proximity of the latter to the drainage basin boundary and the elevation difference between the basin's lowest point and potential spillover location at the basin boundary. The new digital river network was validated using the University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model by comparing the water balance of endorheic inland depressions with modeled accumulation of water in their inland lakes based on the observed historical climate drivers used by WBM.

Earth Systems↗

DOE OSTI2023

A species’ response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗