Nitrate bioreduction dynamics in hyporheic zone sediments under cyclic changes of chemical compositions
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Li, Minjing (ORCID:0000000177038718)↗
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Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts
The cooccurrence of coastal and riverine flooding leads to compound events with substantial impacts on people and property in low-lying coastal areas. Climate change could increase the level of compound flood hazard through higher extreme sea levels and river flows. Here, a bivariate flood hazard assessment method is proposed to estimate compound coastal-riverine frequency under current and future climate conditions. A copula-based approach is used to estimate the joint return period (JRP) of compound floods by incorporating sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in peak river flows into the marginal distributions of flood drivers. Specifically, the changes in JRP of compound major coastal-riverine flooding defined based on simultaneous exceedances above major coastal and riverine thresholds, are explored by midcentury. Subsequently, the increase in the probability of occurrence of at least one compound major coastal-riverine flooding for a given period of time is quantified. The proposed compound flood hazard assessment is conducted at 26 paired tidal-riverine stations along the Contiguous United States coast with long-term data and defined flood thresholds. We show that the northeast Atlantic and the western part of the Gulf coasts are experiencing the highest compound major coastal-riverine flood probability under current conditions. However, future SLR scenarios show the highest frequency amplification along the southeast Atlantic coast. The impact of changes in peak river flows is found to be considerably less than that of SLR. Climate change impacts, especially SLR, may lead to more frequent compound events, which cannot be ignored for future adaptation responses in estuary regions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Transcriptomic and metabolomic changes in postharvest sugarbeet roots reveal widespread metabolic changes in storage and identify genes potentially responsible for respiratory sucrose loss
Endogenous metabolism is primarily responsible for losses in sucrose content and processing quality in postharvest sugarbeet roots. The genes responsible for this metabolism and the transcriptional changes that regulate it, however, are largely unknown. To identify genes and metabolic pathways that participate in postharvest sugarbeet root metabolism and the transcriptional changes that contribute to their regulation, transcriptomic and metabolomic profiles were generated for sugarbeet roots at harvest and after 12, 40 and 120 d storage at 5 and 12°C and gene expression and metabolite concentration changes related to storage duration or temperature were identified. During storage, 8656 genes, or 34% of all expressed genes, and 225 metabolites, equivalent to 59% of detected metabolites, were altered in expression or concentration, indicating extensive transcriptional and metabolic changes in stored roots. These genes and metabolites contributed to a wide range of cellular and molecular functions, with carbohydrate metabolism being the function to which the greatest number of genes and metabolites classified. Because respiration has a central role in postharvest metabolism and is largely responsible for sucrose loss in sugarbeet roots, genes and metabolites involved in and correlated to respiration were identified. Seventy-five genes participating in respiration were differentially expressed during storage, including two bidirectional sugar transporter SWEET17 genes that highly correlated with respiration rate. Weighted gene co-expression network analysis identified 1896 additional genes that positively correlated with respiration rate and predicted a pyruvate kinase gene to be a central regulator or biomarker for respiration rate. Overall, these results reveal the extensive and diverse physiological and metabolic changes that occur in stored sugarbeet roots and identify genes with potential roles as regulators or biomarkers for respiratory sucrose loss.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Shielding application of perturbation theory to determine changes in neutron and gamma doses due to changes in shield layers
Perturbation theory formulas were derived and applied to determine changes in neutron and gamma-ray doses due to changes in various radiation shield layers for fixed sources. For a given source and detector position, the perturbation method enables dose derivatives with respect to density, or equivalently thickness, for every layer to be determined from one forward and one inhomogeneous adjoint calculation. A direct determination without the perturbation approach would require two forward calculations to evaluate the dose derivative due to a change in a single layer. Hence, the perturbation method for obtaining dose derivatives requires fewer computations for design studies of multilayer shields. For an illustrative problem, a comparison was made of the fractional change in the dose per unit change in the thickness of each shield layer in a two-layer spherical configuration as calculated by perturbation theory and by successive direct calculations; excellent agreement was obtained between the two methods.
Fieno, D.↗
Analysis of vector wind change with respect to time for Cape Kennedy, Florida: Wind aloft profile change vs. time, phase 1
Wind vector change with respect to time at Cape Kennedy, Florida, is examined according to the theory of multivariate normality. The joint distribution of the four variables represented by the components of the wind vector at an initial time and after a specified elapsed time is hypothesized to be quadravariate normal; the fourteen statistics of this distribution, calculated from fifteen years of twice daily Rawinsonde data are presented by monthly reference periods for each month from 0 to 27 km. The hypotheses that the wind component changes with respect to time is univariate normal, the joint distribution of wind component changes is bivariate normal, and the modulus of vector wind change is Rayleigh, has been tested by comparison with observed distributions. Statistics of the conditional bivariate normal distributions of vector wind at a future time given the vector wind at an initial time are derived. Wind changes over time periods from one to five hours, calculated from Jimsphere data, are presented.
Adelfang, S. I.↗
Changes in the planetary heat balance with chemical changes in air
The concept of an 'equivalent radiative atmosphere', a simplified model of the atmospheric radiative aspects, is used to explore changes in the greenhouse effect, caused by changes in the atmospheric composition, and changes in the incident solar flux. By extending this model to the zonal energy-balance type, it is shown that global heating has the more profound effect at higher latitudes. It is also shown that the positive feedback in H2O opacity is comparable to the initial change in opacity due, for example, to a change in CO2 content.
Chamberlain, J. W.↗
Phytochrome induces changes in the immunodetectable level of a wall peroxidase that precede growth changes in maize seedlings
The regulatory pigment phytochrome induces rapid and opposite growth changes in different regions of etiolated maize seedlings: it stimulates the elongation rate of coleoptiles and inhibits that of mesocotyls. As measured by a quantitative immunoassay, phytochrome also promotes rapid and opposite changes in the extractable content of a Mr 98,000 anionic isoperoxidase in the cell walls of these same organs: it induces a decrease of this peroxidase in coleoptiles and an increase in mesocotyls. The peroxidase changes precede the growth changes. As measured by video stereomicroscopy or a position transducer, red light (R), which photoactivates phytochrome, stimulates coleoptile elongation with a lag of about 15-20 min and suppresses mesocotyl growth with a lag of 45-50 min. R also induces a 50% reduction in the extractable level of the anionic peroxidase in coleoptile walls in less than 10 min and a 40% increase in the level of this peroxidase in mesocotyl walls within 30 min. Ascorbic acid, an inhibitor of peroxidase activity, blocks the effects of R on mesocotyl section growth. These results are relevant to hypotheses that postulate that certain wall peroxidases can participate in light-induced changes in growth rate by their effects on wall extensibility.
Non-NASA Center↗
Bioenergy Technologies in Long-Run Climate Change Mitigation: Results from the EMF-33 Study
Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in long-run climate change mitigation strategies as highlighted by many integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios. These scenarios, however, also show a very wide range of results, with uncertainty about bioenergy conversion technology deployment and biomass feedstock supply. To date, the underlying differences in model assumptions and parameters for the range of results have not been conveyed. Here we explore the models and results of the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum to elucidate and explore bioenergy technology specifications and constraints that underlie projected bioenergy outcomes. We first develop and report consistent bioenergy technology characterizations and modeling details. We evaluate the bioenergy technology specifications through a series of analyses—comparison with the literature, model intercomparison, and an assessment of bioenergy technology projected deployments. We find that bioenergy technology coverage and characterization varies substantially across models, spanning different conversion routes, carbon capture and storage opportunities, and technology deployment constraints. Still, the range of technology specification assumptions is largely in line with bottom-up engineering estimates. We then find that variation in bioenergy deployment across models cannot be understood from technology costs alone. Important additional determinants include biomass feedstock costs, the availability and costs of alternative mitigation options in and across end-uses, the availability of carbon dioxide removal possibilities, the speed with which large scale changes in the makeup of energy conversion facilities and integration can take place, and the relative demand for different energy services.
bioenergy↗
Changing Degree of Convective Organization as a Mechanism for Dynamic Changes in Extreme Precipitation
Purpose of Review: What does recent work say about how changes in convective organization could lead to changes in extreme precipitation? Recent Findings: Changing convective organization is one mechanism that could explain variation in extreme precipitation increase through dynamics. In models, the effects of convective self-aggregation on extreme precipitation are sensitive to parameterization, among other factors. In both models and observations, whether or not convective organization influences extreme precipitation is sensitive to the time and space scales analyzed, affecting extreme precipitation on some scales but not others. While trends in observations in convective organization associated with mean precipitation have been identified, it has not yet been established whether these trends are robust or relevant for events associated with extreme precipitation. Summary: Recent work has documented a somewhat view of how changes in convective organization could affect extreme precipitation with warming, and it remains unclear whether or not they do.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The impact of non-ideal phase change properties on phase change thermal energy storage device performance
Phase change materials have been known to improve the performance of energy storage devices by shifting or reducing thermal/electrical loads. While an ideal phase change material is one that undergoes a sharp, reversible phase transition, real phase change materials do not exhibit this behavior and often have one or more non-idealities – glide, hysteresis, supercooling – associated with them. Experimental and modeling techniques to characterize these non-ideal properties are reasonably well understood, however, their impact on the performance of a thermal energy storage system is not fully understood. Herein, we analyze the performance of a heat exchanger with a phase change material as a function of the different non-idealities, for a heating and a cooling application. We focus on the impact of these non-ideal behaviors on different modes of operation of the thermal energy storage device, which will serve as a useful guide to researchers on the relative importance of the non-ideal properties, along with the necessary accuracy required during an experimental characterization.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Soil metabolome response to whole-ecosystem warming at the Spruce and Peatland Responses under Changing Environments experiment
In this study, a suite of complementary environmental geochemical analyses, including NMR and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses of central metabolites, Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) of secondary metabolites, and lipidomics, was used to investigate the influence of organic matter (OM) quality on the heterotrophic microbial mechanisms controlling peatland CO2, CH4, and CO2:CH4 porewater production ratios in response to climate warming. Our investigations leverage the Spruce and Peatland Responses under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experiment, where air and peat warming were combined in a whole-ecosystem warming treatment. We hypothesized that warming would enhance the production of plant-derived metabolites, resulting in increased labile OM inputs to the surface peat, thereby enhancing microbial activity and greenhouse gas production. Because shallow peat is most susceptible to enhanced warming, increases in labile OM inputs to the surface, in particular, are likely to result in significant changes to CO2 and CH4 dynamics and methanogenic pathways. In support of this hypothesis, significant correlations were observed between metabolites and temperature consistent with increased availability of labile substrates, which may stimulate more rapid turnover of microbial proteins. An increase in the abundance of methanogenic genes in response to the increase in the abundance of labile substrates was accompanied by a shift toward acetoclastic and methylotrophic methanogenesis. Our results suggest that as peatland vegetation trends toward increasing vascular plant cover with warming, we can expect a concomitant shift toward increasingly methanogenic conditions and amplified climate–peatland feedbacks.
Wilson, Rachel M.↗
Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets
Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.
Gurgel, Angelo C. (ORCID:0000000183319508)↗
Future changes in the Great Plains Low-Level Jet governed by seasonally dependent pattern changes in the North Atlantic Subtropical High
The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) plays an important role in the Central US hydroclimate, but our understanding of its response to global warming remains elusive. Here we show that the GPLLJ will intensify and intrude deeper under warming in both spring and autumn but change marginally in summer. This response is governed by seasonally dependent pattern changes of the North-Atlantic subtropical high (NASH). In spring and autumn, with a substantial poleward shift in the North America westerly jet, the NASH expands poleward notably. The anomalous surface high poleward of the NASH enhances the southerly GPLLJ to its west. In summer, however, the poleward westerly-jet shift is weak and changes in the NASH manifest a westward extension, which only marginally affects the GPLLJ. Among models, the NASH expansion and GPLLJ enhancement are correlated with the poleward jet shift, highlighting its critical role in regulating the future NASH and GPLLJ changes.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Observed changes in dry-season water availability attributed to human-induced climate change
Human-induced climate change impacts the hydrological cycle and thus the availability of water resources. However, previous assessments of observed warming-induced changes in dryness have not excluded natural climate variability and show conflicting results due to uncertainties in our understanding of the response of evapotranspiration. Here in this paper, we employ data-driven and land-surface models to produce observation-based global reconstructions of water availability from 1902 to 2014, a period during which our planet experienced a global warming of approximately 1°C. Our analysis reveals a spatial pattern of changes in average water availability during the driest month of the year over the past three decades compared with the first half of the twentieth century, with some regions experiencing increased and some decreased water availability. The global pattern is consistent with climate model estimates that account for anthropogenic effects, and it is not expected from natural climate variability, supporting human-induced climate change as the cause. There is regional evidence of drier dry seasons predominantly in extratropical latitudes and including Europe, western North America, northern Asia, southern South America, Australia and eastern Africa. We also find that the intensification of the dry season is generally a consequence of increasing evapotranspiration rather than decreasing precipitation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Predicting soil carbon changes in switchgrass grown on marginal lands under climate change and adaptation strategies
Abstract The United States Great Lakes Region (USGLR) is a critical geographic area for future bioenergy production. Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) is widely considered a carbon (C)‐neutral or C‐negative bioenergy production system, but projected increases in air temperature and precipitation due to climate change might substantially alter soil organic C (SOC) dynamics and storage in soils. This study examined long‐term SOC changes in switchgrass grown on marginal land in the USGLR under current and projected climate, predicted using a process‐based model (Systems Approach to Land‐Use Sustainability) extensively calibrated with a wealth of plant and soil measurements at nine experimental sites. Simulations indicate that these soils are likely a net C sink under switchgrass (average gain 0.87 Mg C ha −1 year −1 ), although substantial variation in the rate of SOC accumulation was predicted (range: 0.2–1.3 Mg C ha −1 year −1 ). Principal component analysis revealed that the predicted intersite variability in SOC sequestration was related in part to differences in climatic characteristics, and to a lesser extent, to heterogeneous soils. Although climate change impacts on switchgrass plant growth were predicted to be small (4%–6% decrease on average), the increased soil respiration was predicted to partially negate SOC accumulations down to 70% below historical rates in the most extreme scenarios. Increasing N fertilizer rate and decreasing harvest intensity both had modest SOC sequestration benefits under projected climate, whereas introducing genotypes better adapted to the longer growing seasons was a much more effective strategy. Best‐performing adaptation scenarios were able to offset >60% of the climate change impacts, leading to SOC sequestration 0.7 Mg C ha −1 year −1 under projected climate. On average, this was 0.3 Mg C ha −1 year −1 more C sequestered than the no adaptation baseline. These findings provide crucial knowledge needed to guide policy and operational management for maximizing SOC sequestration of future bioenergy production on marginal lands in the USGLR.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Ocular accommodative changes in humans induced by positional changes with respect to gravity
Results are presented for an experimental study concerning ocular accommodation measurements in normal human subjects while they were rotated at a speed of 1 deg/sec about their naso-occipital axis. A few rotations were done about an interaural axis. It is shown that altering the head position with respect to gravity is followed by a change in ocular refraction, with the major change being in a lens-thickening or accommodative direction. Reasons for ascribing these changes to reflex changes in ocular accommodation are given. Arguments are presented relating this accommodative response to the utricles, which are nearly parallel to the earth horizontal.
Markham, C. H.↗
Estimating the change in asymptotic direction due to secular changes in the geomagnetic field
The concept of geomagnetic optics, as described by the asymptotic directions of approach, is extremely useful in the analysis of cosmic radiation data. However, when changes in cutoff occur as a result of evolution in the geomagnetic field, there are corresponding changes in the asymptotic cones of acceptance. A method is introduced of estimating the change in the asymptotic direction of approach for vertically incident cosmic ray particles from a reference set of directions at a specific epoch by considering the change in the geomagnetic cutoff.
Flueckiger, E. O.↗