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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Causal Approach to Integrate Component Health Data into System Reliability Models

Two of the challenges of current plant reliability approaches are the ability to integrate plant health data, and to support decision making. Condition based data and diagnostic/prognostic information are in fact not considered into plant reliability models to inform system engineers on the most critical components. Currently, the propagation of quantitative health data from the component to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature/structure of the data. On the other hand, plant reliability methods (which are typically based on fault-trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate data from the component to the system level, but values of failure rates or failure probabilities are an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience, and it neglects the present component health status (e.g., diagnostic and condition-based data) and health projection (when available from prognostic data). Our first claim is that system reliability models should propagate health information from the component to the system/plant level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system/plant health and identify the most critical components. Our second claim is that component health should be informed solely by that specific component current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience. This paper is directly supporting these two claims by proposing a different approach to perform reliability modeling which relies on available component diagnostic, prognostic and condition-based data to measure component health, and it propagates this information through fault tree models. The propagation of health data from the component to the system level is performed not in terms of probability, but in terms of margins where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present actual status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated to a component performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired component performance (i.e., component health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical components.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Causal discovery from data assisted by large language models

Knowledge-driven discovery of novel materials necessitates the development of causal models for property emergence. While in the classical physical paradigm, the causal relationships are deduced based on physical principles or via experiment, the rapid accumulation of observational data necessitates learning causal relationships between dissimilar aspects of material structure and functionalities based on observations. For this, it is essential to integrate experimental data with prior domain knowledge. Here, we demonstrate this approach by combining high-resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy data with insights derived from large language models (LLMs). By applying ChatGPT to domain-specific literature, such as arXiv papers on ferroelectrics, and combining the obtained information with data-driven causal discovery, we construct adjacency matrices for directed acyclic graphs that map the causal relationships between structural, chemical, and polarization degrees of freedom in Sm-doped BiFeO 3 . This approach enables us to hypothesize how synthesis conditions influence material properties and guides experimental validation. Furthermore, the ultimate objective of this work is to develop a unified framework that integrates LLM-driven literature analysis with data-driven discovery, facilitating the precise engineering of ferroelectric materials by establishing clear connections between synthesis conditions and their resulting material properties.

Causal inference↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of bars on evolution of SDSS spiral galaxies

ABSTRACT We explore the significance of bars in triggering central star formation (SF) and active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity for spiral galaxy evolution using a volume-limited sample with 0.020 < z < 0.055, Mr < −19.5, and σ > 70 km s−1 selected from Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7. On a central SF rate–σ plane, we measure the fraction of galaxies with strong bars in our sample and also the AGN fractions for barred and non-barred galaxies, respectively. The comparison between the bar and AGN fractions reveals a causal connection between the two phenomena of SF quenching and AGN activity. A massive black hole and abundant gas fuels are sufficient conditions to trigger AGNs. We infer that the AGNs triggered by satisfying the two conditions drive the strong AGN feedback, suddenly suppressing the central SF and leaving the SF sequence. We find that in galaxies where either of the two conditions is not sufficient, bars are a great help for the AGN triggering, accelerating the entire process of evolution, which is particularly evident in pseudo-bulge galaxies. All of our findings are obtained only when plotted in terms of their central velocity dispersion and central SFR (not galactic scale SFR), indicating that the AGN-driven SF quenching is confined in the central kpc region.

Kim, Minbae↗
DOE OSTI2024

Causal relationship between mitochondrial-associated proteins and cerebral aneurysms: a Mendelian randomization study

Background Cerebral aneurysm is a high-risk cerebrovascular disease with a poor prognosis, potentially linked to multiple factors. This study aims to explore the association between mitochondrial-associated proteins and the risk of cerebral aneurysms using Mendelian randomization (MR) methods. Methods We used GWAS summary statistics from the IEU Open GWAS project for mitochondrial-associated proteins and from the Finnish database for cerebral aneurysms (uIA, aSAH). The association between mitochondrial-associated exposures and cerebral aneurysms was evaluated using MR-Egger, weighted mode, IVW, simple mode and weighted median methods. Reverse MR assessed reverse causal relationship, while sensitivity analyses examined heterogeneity and pleiotropy in the instrumental variables. Significant causal relationship with cerebral aneurysms were confirmed using FDR correction. Results Through MR analysis, we identified six mitochondrial proteins associated with an increased risk of aSAH: AIF1 (OR: 1.394, 95% CI: 1.109–1.752, p = 0.0044), CCDC90B (OR: 1.318, 95% CI: 1.132–1.535, p = 0.0004), TIM14 (OR: 1.272, 95% CI: 1.041–1.553, p = 0.0186), NAGS (OR: 1.219, 95% CI: 1.008–1.475, p = 0.041), tRNA PusA (OR: 1.311, 95% CI: 1.096–1.569, p = 0.003), and MRM3 (OR: 1.097, 95% CI: 1.016–1.185, p = 0.0175). Among these, CCDC90B, tRNA PusA, and AIF1 demonstrated a significant causal relationship with an increased risk of aSAH (FDR q < 0.1). Three mitochondrial proteins were associated with an increased risk of uIA: CCDC90B (OR: 1.309, 95% CI: 1.05–1.632, p = 0.0165), tRNA PusA (OR: 1.306, 95% CI: 1.007–1.694, p = 0.0438), and MRM3 (OR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.012–1.263, p = 0.0303). In the reverse MR study, only one mitochondrial protein, TIM14 (OR: 1.087, 95% CI: 1.004–1.177, p = 0.04), showed a causal relationship with aSAH. Sensitivity analysis did not reveal heterogeneity or pleiotropy. The results suggest that CCDC90B, tRNA PusA, and MRM3 may be common risk factors for cerebral aneurysms (ruptured and unruptured), while AIF1 and NAGS are specifically associated with an increased risk of aSAH, unrelated to uIA. TIM14 may interact with aSAH. Conclusion Our findings confirm a causal relationship between mitochondrial-associated proteins and cerebral aneurysms, offering new insights for future research into the pathogenesis and treatment of this condition.

Wang, Shuai↗
DOE OSTI2025

Causal relationships of vegetation productivity with root zone water availability and atmospheric dryness at the catchment scale

Abstract. This study explores the causal relationships between catchment water availability, vapor pressure deficit, and gross primary productivity (GPP) across 341 catchments in the contiguous US. Seasonal climatic, hydrological, and vegetation characteristics were represented using the Horton index, ecological aridity index, evaporative fraction index, and carbon uptake efficiency. Statistical methods, including circularity statistics, correlation analysis, and causality tests, were employed to determine the complex interactions between catchment wetness, atmospheric dryness, and vegetation carbon uptake. The results revealed a maximum lag of 2 months in the intra-annual variability of catchment water supply–productivity and atmospheric water demand–productivity relationships, with hysteresis patterns varying with the catchment's hydrological characteristics. In catchments not permanently under water-limited or energy-limited conditions, vegetation experiences hydrological stress during the peak growing period, coinciding with the highest gross primary productivity and carbon uptake efficiency being out of phase with the Horton index and in phase with the evaporative fraction index. Causality analysis highlights strong temporal continuity in GPP seasonal characteristics, with a cause–effect relationship between catchment water supply, atmospheric demand, and vegetation productivity spanning a maximum of 2 months. These findings underscore the need for a comprehensive functional framework that integrates catchment water supply, atmospheric demand, and vegetation productivity to enhance our understanding and predictive capabilities with regard to ecosystem responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Holographic Space-Time and Quantum Information

The formalism of Holographic Space-time (HST) is a translation of the principles of Lorentzian geometry into the language of quantum information. Intervals along time-like trajectories, and their associated causal diamonds, completely characterize a Lorentzian geometry. The Bekenstein-Hawking-Gibbons-’t Hooft-Jacobson-Fischler-Susskind-Bousso Covariant Entropy Principle, equates the logarithm of the dimension of the Hilbert space associated with a diamond to one quarter of the area of the diamond’s holographic screen, measured in Planck units. The most convincing argument for this principle is Jacobson’s derivation of Einstein’s equations as the hydrodynamic expression of this entropy law. In that context, the null energy condition (NEC) is seen to be the analog of the local law of entropy increase. The quantum version of Einstein’s relativity principle is a set of constraints on the mutual quantum information shared by causal diamonds along different time-like trajectories. The implementation of this constraint for trajectories in relative motion is the greatest unsolved problem in HST. The other key feature of HST is its claim that, for non-negative cosmological constant or causal diamonds much smaller than the asymptotic radius of curvature for negative c.c., the degrees of freedom localized in the bulk of a diamond are constrained states of variables defined on the holographic screen. This principle gives a simple explanation of otherwise puzzling features of BH entropy formulae, and resolves the firewall problem for black holes in Minkowski space. It motivates a covariant version of the CKN [1] bound on the regime of validity of quantum field theory (QFT) and a detailed picture of the way in which QFT emerges as an approximation to the exact theory

tensor network↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Machine-Learned Cruise Guide Indicator for Rotorcraft

This paper presents a machine-learned virtual cruise guide indicator (vCGI) for Chinook helicopters. Two temporal neural networks were trained and evaluated on measured data from 55 flight tests, one for the fore rotor and another for the aft rotor, to predict a vCGI value, which protects 23 components from fatigue damage during steady-state conditions. Three different classes of machine learning architectures were evaluated for prediction of the vCGI from time sequences: a temporal convolutional neural network with 1D dilated causal convolutions, a long short-term memory recurrent neural network, and an attention-based transformer architecture. The final average model accuracy on unseen flight data is currently greater than 93% for CGI values which could result in fatigue damage and 90% for normal operation CGI values. Model accuracy was improved through a series of advancements in:(1) selection of optimal training data using temporal collective variables and unsupervised learning, (2) dataset augmentation with maximum-entropy temporal collective variables, and (3) implementation of a mixture-of-experts classification- regression approach using an adversarial classification approach to assign maneuver labels. The results are presented for each advancement in model development along with lessons learned in training machine learning models on real- world, time-dependent rotorcraft data.

Boyer, Mathew↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shade triggers posttranscriptional PHYTOCHROME-INTERACTING FACTOR-dependent increases in H3K4 trimethylation

The phytochrome (phy)-PHYTOCHROME-INTERACTING FACTOR (PIF) sensory module perceives and transduces light signals to direct target genes (DTGs), which then drive the adaptational responses in plant growth and development appropriate to the prevailing environment. These signals include the first exposure of etiolated seedlings to sunlight upon emergence from subterranean darkness and the change in color of the light that is filtered through, or reflected from, neighboring vegetation (“shade”). Previously, we identified three broad categories of rapidly signal-responsive genes: those repressed by light and conversely induced by shade; those repressed by light, but subsequently unresponsive to shade; and those responsive to shade only. Here, we investigate the potential role of epigenetic chromatin modifications in regulating these contrasting patterns of phy-PIF module-induced expression of DTGs in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana). Using RNA-seq and ChIP-seq to determine time-resolved profiling of transcript and histone 3 lysine 4 trimethylation (H3K4me3) levels, respectively, we show that, whereas the initial dark-to-light transition triggers a rapid, apparently temporally coincident decline of both parameters, the light-to-shade transition induces similarly rapid increases in transcript levels that precede increases in H3K4me3 levels. Together with other recent findings, these data raise the possibility that, rather than being causal in the shade-induced expression changes, H3K4me3 may function to buffer the rapidly fluctuating shade/light switching that is intrinsic to vegetational canopies under natural sunlight conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Correlation of Early-Stage Growth Process Conditions with Dislocation Evolution in MOCVD-Based GaP/Si Heteroepitaxy

To identify the complex relationships between early-stage growth processes and the resultant defect microstructure in GaP/Si heteroepitaxy, a holistic study of several key metal-organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) parameters was conducted, focusing on Si surface preparation and GaP atomic layer epitaxy (ALE) based nucleation processes. Here, crystalline defects related to the lattice mismatch and/or interfacial heterovalency, namely misfit dislocations (MD), threading dislocations (TD), and stacking fault pyramids (SFP), were quantitatively characterized via electron channeling contrast imaging (ECCI) and correlated against the different process variations. Choice of Si surface preparation method between the two examined (dilute SiH4 annealing versus Si2H6 based homoepitaxy) had little impact on resultant GaP film morphology and defect content, whereas differing GaP ALE nucleation conditions produced much more substantial changes. In particular, the initial precursor species (tert-butylphosphine versus triethygallium) and ALE cycle purge times both yielded significant influence over threading dislocation densities (TDD) in thin (100 nm), post-critical thickness GaP/Si films, with TDD spanning two orders of magnitude, from 6.7×10 7 cm -2 to 7.1×10 5 cm -2 , depending on the specific process conditions employed. SFP densities were also found to follow a similar trend, ranging from 2.0×10 7 cm -2 to 1.8×10 5 cm -2 , but with no apparent causal relationship between SFP density and TDD. To help explain the dramatic differences observed, detailed, large-area MD network characterization was used to provide statistically-relevant quantitative analyses of the critical dislocation dynamics (introduction rates and glide velocities) associated with the different process variants. These extracted values are then correlated against the ALE process variants to provide insight into the potential mechanistic roles of the different growth processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

VAINE: Visualization and AI for Natural Experiments

Natural experiments are observational studies where the assignment of treatment conditions to different populations occur by chance ``in the wild''. Researchers from fields such as economics, healthcare, and the social sciences leverage natural experiments to conduct hypothesis testing and causal effect estimation for treatment and outcome variables that would otherwise be costly, infeasible, or unethical. In this paper, we introduce VAINE (Visualization and AI for Natural Experiments), a visual analytics tool for identifying and understanding natural experiments from observational data. We then demonstrate how VAINE can be used to validate causal relationships, estimate average treatment effects, and identify statistical phenomena such as Simpson’s paradox through two use cases.

Guo, Grace↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chaos and complementarity in de Sitter space

We consider small perturbations to a static three-dimensional de Sitter geometry. For early enough perturbations that satisfy the null energy condition, the result is a shockwave geometry that leads to a time advance in the trajectory of geodesics crossing it. This brings the opposite poles of de Sitter space into causal contact with each other, much like a traversable wormhole in Anti-de Sitter space. In this background, we compute out-of-time-order correlators (OTOCs) to asses the chaotic nature of the de Sitter horizon and find that it is maximally chaotic: one of the OTOCs we study decays exponentially with a Lyapunov exponent that saturates the chaos bound. We discuss the consequences of our results for de Sitter complementarity and inflation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-dimensional multivariate autoregressive model estimation of human electrophysiological data using fMRI priors

Multivariate autoregressive (MVAR) model estimation enables assessment of causal interactions in brain networks. However, accurately estimating MVAR models for high-dimensional electrophysiological recordings is challenging due to the extensive data requirements. Hence, the applicability of MVAR models for study of brain behavior over hundreds of recording sites has been very limited. Prior work has focused on different strategies for selecting a subset of important MVAR coefficients in the model to reduce the data requirements of conventional least-squares estimation algorithms. Here we propose incorporating prior information, such as resting state functional connectivity derived from functional magnetic resonance imaging, into MVAR model estimation using a weighted group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization strategy. The proposed approach is shown to reduce data requirements by a factor of two relative to the recently proposed group LASSO method of Endemann et al (Neuroimage 254:119057, 2022) while resulting in models that are both more parsimonious and more accurate. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated using simulation studies of physiologically realistic MVAR models derived from intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) data. The robustness of the approach to deviations between the conditions under which the prior information and iEEG data is obtained is illustrated using models from data collected in different sleep stages. This approach allows accurate effective connectivity analyses over short time scales, facilitating investigations of causal interactions in the brain underlying perception and cognition during rapid transitions in behavioral state.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A contextual sensor system for non-intrusive machine status and energy monitoring

Event-driven contexts in manufacturing occur pervasively as a result of interactions among involved entities such as machines, workers, materials, and environment. One of the primary tasks in smart manufacturing is to derive a context-aware system conveniently incorporating worker knowledge for generating timely actionable intelligence for workers on factory floor and supervisors to respond. In this paper, we propose to design a human-and-machine interaction recognition framework by using a causality concept to collect contextual data for classifications of normal and abnormal machine operations. The causes and effects are between workers and machines for this initial research. To apply the causality to recognize worker interactions, initially a reliable way to identify the states of machines is necessary. The proposed contextual sensor system, consisting of a power meter for measuring machine operation conditions, a visual camera for capturing worker and machine interactions via a finite state machine model, and an algorithm for determining power signatures of individual components via energy disaggregation is implemented on semiconductor fabrication machines (manual or PLC controlled) each with multiple components. The experiment results demonstrate its context extraction capability such as components states and their corresponding energy usage in real time as well as its ability to identify anomalous operation conditions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Feature selection and causal analysis for microbiome studies in the presence of confounding using standardization

Abstract Background Microbiome studies have uncovered associations between microbes and human, animal, and plant health outcomes. This has led to an interest in developing microbial interventions for treatment of disease and optimization of crop yields which requires identification of microbiome features that impact the outcome in the population of interest. That task is challenging because of the high dimensionality of microbiome data and the confounding that results from the complex and dynamic interactions among host, environment, and microbiome. In the presence of such confounding, variable selection and estimation procedures may have unsatisfactory performance in identifying microbial features with an effect on the outcome. Results In this manuscript, we aim to estimate population-level effects of individual microbiome features while controlling for confounding by a categorical variable. Due to the high dimensionality and confounding-induced correlation between features, we propose feature screening, selection, and estimation conditional on each stratum of the confounder followed by a standardization approach to estimation of population-level effects of individual features. Comprehensive simulation studies demonstrate the advantages of our approach in recovering relevant features. Utilizing a potential-outcomes framework, we outline assumptions required to ascribe causal, rather than associational, interpretations to the identified microbiome effects. We conducted an agricultural study of the rhizosphere microbiome of sorghum in which nitrogen fertilizer application is a confounding variable. In this study, the proposed approach identified microbial taxa that are consistent with biological understanding of potential plant-microbe interactions. Conclusions Standardization enables more accurate identification of individual microbiome features with an effect on the outcome of interest compared to other variable selection and estimation procedures when there is confounding by a categorical variable.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A dataset of eco-evidence tools to inform early-stage environmental impact assessments of hydropower development

The datasets described herein provide the foundation for a decision support prototype (DSP) toolkit aimed at assisting stakeholders in determining evidence of which aspects of river ecosystems have been impacted by hydropower. The DSP toolkit and its application are presented and described in the article “Evidence-based indicator approach to guide preliminary environmental impact assessments of hydropower development” [1]. Development of the DSP and the output for decision support centralize around 42 river function indicators describing the dimensionality of river ecosystems through six main categories: biota and biodiversity, water quality, hydrology, geomorphology, land cover, and river connectivity. Three main tools are represented in the DSP: A science-based questionnaire (SBQ), an environmental envelope model (EEM), and a river function linkage assessment tool (RFLAT). The SBQ is a structured survey-style questionnaire whose objective is to provide evidence of which indicators have been impacted by hydropower. Based on a global literature review, 140 questions were developed from general hypotheses regarding the impacts of dams on rivers. The EEM is a model to predict the likelihood of hydropower impacting indicators based on a several variables. The intended use of the EEM is for situations of new hydropower development where results of the SBQ are incomplete or highly uncertain. The EEM was developed through the compilation of a dataset containing attributes of dams, reservoirs, and geospatial information on environmental concerns, which was combined with data on ecological indicators documented at those sites through literature review. The model operates through 247 “envelopes” and weighting factors, representing the individual effect of each variable on each indicator, all available through spreadsheets. Finally, the RFLAT is a tool to examine causal relationships amongst indicators. Inter-indicator relationships were hypothesized based on literature review and summarized into node and edge datasets to represent the structure of a graphical network. Bayes theorem was used estimate conditional probabilities of inter-indicator relationships based on the output of the SBQ. Nodes and edges were imported into R programming environment to visualize ecological indicator networks. The datasets can be expanded upon and enriched with more detailed questions for the SBQ, building upon the EEM with to develop more sophisticated models, and identifying new relationships for the RFALT. Additionally, once the tools are applied to numerous hydropower developments, the output of the tools (e.g. evidence of impacted indicators) becomes a very useful dataset for meta-analyses of hydropower impacts.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comments on Control of Wave Energy Converters

The main objective of this letter is to consolidate the knowledge about the dynamics and control of oscillating-body wave energy converters (WECs). A number of studies have shown that control systems strongly affect power absorption; however, there remains a need for a concise and integrated explanation of the theoretical and practical implications that control can have on both performance and the broader WEC design process. This short letter attempts to fill this gap by presenting a discussion on the key practical aspects concerning the dynamics and control of oscillating-body WEC. In particular, the focus is on the choice of control models and a simple causal control scheme suitable for real-time implementation. To conclude, consideration is given to the effect of the power takeoff (PTO) on the maximization of electrical power, thus leading to the derivation of useful conditions for the control co-design of the PTO system.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operation Optimization using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework

In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Medium-Range Structural Order as the Driver of Activated Dynamics and Complexity Reduction in Glass-Forming Liquids

Here, we analyze in depth the Elastically Collective Nonlinear Langevin Equation theory of activated dynamics in metastable liquids to establish that the predicted inter-relationships between the alpha relaxation time, local cage and collective elastic barriers, dynamic localization length, and shear modulus are causally related within the theory to the medium range order (MRO) static correlation length. The latter grows exponentially with density for metastable hard sphere fluids and as a nonuniversal inverse power law with temperature for supercooled liquids under isobaric conditions. The physical origin of predicted connections between the alpha time and other metrics of cage order and the thermodynamic inverse dimensionless compressibility is fully established. It is discovered that although kinetic constraints from the real space first coordination shell are important for the alpha time, they are of secondary importance compared to the consequences of the more universal MRO correlations in both the modestly and deeply metastable regimes. This understanding sheds new light on the theoretical basis for, and prior successes of, the predictive mapping of chemically complex thermal liquids to effective hard sphere fluids based on matching their dimensionless compressibilities, a scheme we call “complexity reduction”. In essence, the latter is equivalent to the physical requirement that the thermal liquid MRO correlation equals that of its effective hard sphere analog. The mapping alone is shown to provide a remarkable level of quantitative predictive power for the glass transition temperature T g of 21 molecular and polymer liquids. Predictions for the chemically specific absolute magnitude and growth with cooling of the MRO correlation length are obtained and lie in the window of 2–6 nm at T g . Dynamic heterogeneity, elastic facilitation, and beyond pair structure issues are briefly discussed. Future opportunities to theoretically analyze the equilibrated deep glass regime are outlined.

cancer↗