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DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivities of Large Eddy Simulations of Aerosol Plume Transport and Cloud Response

Abstract Cloud responses to surface‐based sources of aerosol perturbation partially depend on how turbulent transport of the aerosol to cloud base affects the spatial and temporal distribution of aerosol. Here, scenarios of plume injection below a marine stratocumulus cloud are modeled using large eddy simulations coupled to a prognostic bulk aerosol and cloud microphysics scheme. Both passive plumes, consisting of an inert tracer, and active plumes are investigated, where the latter are representative of saltwater droplet plumes such as have been proposed for marine cloud brightening. Passive plume scenarios show higher in‐plume cloud brightness (relative to out‐of‐plume) due to the predominant transport of the passive plume tracer from the near‐surface to the cloud layer within updrafts. These updrafts rise into brighter areas within the cloud deck, even in the absence of an aerosol perturbation associated with an active plume. Comparing albedo at in‐plume to out‐of‐plume locations associates the inert plume with the brightest cloud locations, without any causal effect of the plume on the cloud. Numerical sensitivities are first assessed to establish a suitable model configuration. Then sensitivity to particle injection rate is investigated. Trade‐offs are identified between the number of injected particles and the suppressive effect of droplet evaporation on plume loft and spread. Furthermore, as the near‐field in‐plume brightening effect does not depend significantly on injection rate given a suitable definition of perturbed versus unperturbed regions of the flow, plume area is a key controlling factor on the overall cloud brightening effect of an aerosol perturbation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

DG2DAG: Learning Directed Acyclic Graphs from Functional Priors

Physics-based systems-of-systems models are computationally expensive. Reduced graphical models can decrease computational complexity, but may not proffer an end-to-end model from upstream inputs to downstream outputs. We consequently are interested in reducing models on directed graphs to models on a directed acyclic subgraph such that preserves accurate reconstruction of nodes. The consequence is a model with a topological ordering, providing a one-way flow of computation, and a causal interpr

Voronin, Alexey [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL↗

DOE OSTI2025

Increasing Mosquito Abundance Under Global Warming

Mosquitoes are a key virus vector that poses significant health threats globally, affecting 700 million individuals and causing 1 million deaths annually. Accurately predicting mosquito abundance and dispersion remains a challenge. Complex interactions between mosquito dynamics and various environmental factors, notably hydrology, contribute to this challenge. Existing models typically focus on precipitation and temperature and often overlook further impacts of hydrological variables within mosquito modeling. In this study, we developed an artificial intelligence‐based model for mosquito dynamics, explicitly accounting for different hydrological variables, such as precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow. Using Toronto, Canada, as a case study, we identified causal relationships between changes in mosquito populations, hydrological factors, vegetation (e.g., leaf area index), and climate variables (e.g., daylight length, precipitation, and temperature). We embedded these relationships into a Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network Model capable of accurately detecting mosquito dynamics across annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales. The LSTM is able to explain, on average, approximately 40% of the variance in the observed mosquito abundance data. Using the calibrated model, we predicted that the summer season mosquito abundance would increase by ∼16% and ∼19% under an intermediate greenhouse emission scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, and a high greenhouse emission scenario, SSP5‐8.5, respectively. We expect that this model can serve as a valuable tool and inform science‐based decisions affecting mosquito dynamics and public health. It can also build a foundation for future risk analysis at the regional and larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Gravity and Laser Interferometry: Towards Observable Predictions

Understanding quantum gravity remains one of the deepest challenges in modern physics, as direct experimental access to Planck-scale effects is beyond current technological reach. However, recent theoretical advances indicate that quantum fluctuations of spacetime may produce measurable effects in precision experiments, particularly near causal horizons. This opens new avenues for testing quantum gravity phenomena through high-precision measurement techniques. This dissertation develops multiple theoretical models to characterize these effects and examines their potential observational signatures in future gravitational wave interferometers. We begin by investigating the role of quantum fluctuations in near-horizon geometries through the lens of the AdS/CFT correspondence, which provides a powerful framework for understanding the interplay between quantum field theory and general relativity via holographic principles. By modeling stochastic energy-momentum sources in Rindler-AdS spacetime, we demonstrate that vacuum fluctuations transform the Einstein equations into a Langevin-type stochastic differential equation, leading to potentially observable fluctuations in photon traversal times. Extending this approach to Minkowski spacetime, we establish a correspondence between gravitational shockwaves and fluid dynamics, showing that near-horizon perturbations satisfy an equation analogous to that governing incompressible fluids, thereby reinforcing the membrane paradigm and hydrodynamic analogies in the context of the fluid/gravity duality. Furthermore, we construct the covariant phase space of a spherically symmetric causal diamond in Minkowski spacetime, identifying two fundamental charges that govern its evolution. These results provide a foundation for quantizing causal horizons and understanding their microscopic degrees of freedom. Building upon these theoretical developments, we further examine a related stochastic phenomenon: the gravitational wave memory background arising from the cumulative memory steps produced by supermassive black hole mergers. After reviewing the standard stochastic gravitational wave background, gravitational memory effects, and BMS symmetries, we model the stochastic memory background using a Brownian motion framework. We show that while the cumulative memory background initially appears above the sensitivity curve of space-based interferometers like LISA, the realistic subtraction of individually resolvable merger events substantially suppresses the residual signal, making its detection more challenging. This highlights the critical importance of source subtraction when evaluating the detectability of gravitational memory effects. By bridging fundamental theory with experimental prospects, this dissertation contributes to the ongoing effort to uncover the quantum nature of spacetime through precision measurement techniques. Whether through detecting quantum spacetime fluctuations, gravitational memory backgrounds, or probing the symmetries of causal horizons, the pursuit of observable quantum gravity phenomena continues to expand the frontiers of both theory and experiment.

Zhang, Yiwen [Caltech] (ORCID:0000000323559416)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bacterial population-level trade-offs between drought tolerance and resource acquisition traits impact decomposition

Microbes drive fundamental ecosystem processes, such as decomposition. Environmental stressors are known to affect microbes, their fitness, and the ecosystem functions that they perform; yet, understanding the causal mechanisms behind this influence has been difficult. We used leaf litter on soil surface as a model in situ system to assess changes in bacterial genomic traits and decomposition rates for 18 months with drought as a stressor. We hypothesized that genome-scale trade-offs due to investment in stress tolerance traits under drought reduce the capacity for bacterial populations to carry out decomposition, and that these population-level trade-offs scale up to impact emergent community traits, thereby reducing decomposition rates. We observed drought tolerance mechanisms that were heightened in bacterial populations under drought, identified as higher gene copy numbers in metagenome-assembled genomes. A subset of populations under drought had reduced carbohydrate-active enzyme genes that suggested—as a trade-off—a decline in decomposition capabilities. These trade-offs were driven by community succession and taxonomic shifts as distinct patterns appeared in populations. We show that trait–trade-offs in bacterial populations under drought could scale up to reduce overall decomposition capabilities and litter decay rates. Using a trait-based approach to assess the population ecology of soil bacteria, we demonstrate genome-level trade-offs in response to drought with consequences for decomposition rates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Capturing Historic Reliability Performance Through Graph Databases: A Model Based System Engineering Approach

With the goal of improving the performance and reliability of high dependable technological systems such as nuclear power plants, advanced monitoring and health management systems are employed to inform system engineers on observed degradation processes and anomalous behaviors of assets and components. This information is captured in the form of large amount of data which can be heterogenous in nature (e.g., numeric, textual). Such large data availability poses challenges when system engineers are required to parse and analyze them in order to track historic reliability performance of assets and components. This paper tackles directly this challenge by providing means to organize data in the form of a graph: a knowledge graph. The presented approach distinguish itself from current knowledge graph-based methods by the fact that model-based system engineering (MBSE) models are used to “put data into context”. In particular, MBSE models are used as skeleton of a knowledge graph; numeric and textual data elements, once processed, are associated to MBSE model elements. Thus, a knowledge graph captures both system architecture (though MBSE models) and health/performance data. Such feature opens the door to new data analytics methods designed to identify causal relations between observed phenomena.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational tools and data integration to accelerate vaccine development: challenges, opportunities, and future directions

The development of effective vaccines is crucial for combating current and emerging pathogens. Despite significant advances in the field of vaccine development there remain numerous challenges including the lack of standardized data reporting and curation practices, making it difficult to determine correlates of protection from experimental and clinical studies. Significant gaps in data and knowledge integration can hinder vaccine development which relies on a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between pathogens and the host immune system. In this review, we explore the current landscape of vaccine development, highlighting the computational challenges, limitations, and opportunities associated with integrating diverse data types for leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques in vaccine design. We discuss the role of natural language processing, semantic integration, and causal inference in extracting valuable insights from published literature and unstructured data sources, as well as the computational modeling of immune responses. Furthermore, we highlight specific challenges associated with uncertainty quantification in vaccine development and emphasize the importance of establishing standardized data formats and ontologies to facilitate the integration and analysis of heterogeneous data. Through data harmonization and integration, the development of safe and effective vaccines can be accelerated to improve public health outcomes. Looking to the future, we highlight the need for collaborative efforts among researchers, data scientists, and public health experts to realize the full potential of AI-assisted vaccine design and streamline the vaccine development process.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Model Based Approach to Extract Health Information from Textual Data

In current nuclear power plants (NPPs) a large amount of condition-based data is being generated and stored to assess and monitor component health and performance. The format of this data can be either numeric (e.g., pump vibration data) or textual (e.g., condition report which assess component health). While assessing component health from numeric data can be performed with a large variety of methods, the extraction of information from textual data still remains a challenge. Natural language processing (NLP) methods are starting to be deployed in current NPPs mainly to filter out incident reports (IRs) that are not safety related by employing supervised machine learning methods. However, these methods do not really provide the quantitative information that might be contained in IRs. This paper presents an approach to extract information from textual data (e.g., from IRs, maintenance reports) that is based on NLP data analytics methods coupled with model-based system engineer (MBSE) models. NLP methods are employed to perform syntactic and semantic analyses. Syntactic analysis analyzes the grammatical structure of a sentence; such analysis includes: part of speech (POS) tagging (i.e., identification of grammatic elements of each string - e.g., nouns, verbs), named entity recognition (i.e., identification of text entities - e.g., names, dates, events), and relation extraction (e.g., coreference resolution). On the other hand, semantic analysis is designed to analyze the logic structure of a sentence. Through a specific set of rules, our methods can identify whether a sentence contains health information of a component (e.g., degraded performance, anomaly behavior) or the causal relationship between two events (i.e., a cause-effect pair). An innovative element of our approach is that semantic analysis relies on MBSE models to identify links between textual elements. MBSE are diagrams designed to represent system and component dependencies (from both a form and functional point of view). In our approach, MBSE models emulate system engineer knowledge about component/system architecture. This paper presents in detail how the integration of NLP methods and MBSE models is performed. Few analysis examples focusing on centrifugal pumps are presented.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Laboratory evolution in Novosphingobium aromaticivorans enables rapid catabolism of a model lignin-derived aromatic dimer

Lignin contains a variety of interunit linkages, leading to a range of potential decomposition products that can be used as carbon and energy sources by microbes. β-O-4 linkages are the most common in native lignin, and associated catabolic pathways have been well characterized. However, the fate of the mono-aromatic intermediates that result from β-O-4 dimer cleavage has not been fully elucidated. Here, we used experimental evolution to identify mutant strains of Novosphingobium aromaticivorans with improved catabolism of a model aromatic dimer containing a β-O-4 linkage, guaiacylglycerol-β-guaiacyl ether (GGE). We identified several parallel causal mutations, including a single nucleotide polymorphism in the promoter of an uncharacterized gene that roughly doubled the growth yield with GGE. We characterized the associated enzyme and demonstrated that it oxidizes an intermediate in GGE catabolism, β-hydroxypropiovanillone, to vanilloyl acetaldehyde. Identification of this enzyme and its key role in GGE catabolism furthers our understanding of catabolic pathways for lignin-derived aromatic compounds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling stochastic fluctuations in relativistic kinetic theory

Using the information current, we develop a Lorentz-covariant framework for modeling equilibrium fluctuations in relativistic kinetic theory in the grand-canonical ensemble. The resulting stochastic theory is proven to be causal and covariantly stable, and its predictions do not depend on the choice of spacetime foliation used to define the grand-canonical probabilities. As expected, in a box containing N > 5 particles, Boltzmann’s molecular chaos postulate is broken with (almost exact) probability N -1/2 , leading to a breakdown of the Boltzmann equation in small systems. Here, we also verify that, in ultrarelativistic gases, transient hydrodynamics already accounts for at least 80% of the equilibrium fluctuations of the stress-energy tensor at a given time. Finally, we compute the correlators at nonequal times for two selected collision kernels: that of a chemically active diluted solution, and that of ultrarelativistic scalar particles self-interacting via a quartic potential. For the former, we compute the density-density correlators analytically in real space, and dehydrodynamization of the stochastic theory is proven to occur whenever the mean free path diverges at high energy.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

From Machine Learning to Machine Reasoning: A Model-based Approach to Analyze Equipment Reliability Data

In current nuclear power plants (NPPs) a large amount of condition-based data which can be used to assess and monitor component health and performance. Assessing component health from such data can be performed with a large variety of methods. While the analysis of numeric data can be performed with several methods, the extraction of information from textual data remains a challenge. Currently employed natural language processing (NLP) methods do not really provide quantitative information that might be contained in IRs. In addition, the integration of numeric and textual data to identify possible causal relationships between data elements is still an unresolved challenge. This paper presents an approach to extract information from textual (e.g., incident or maintenance reports) and numeric data that relies on model based system engineer (MBSE) models. MBSE are diagrams designed to represent system and component dependencies (from both a form and functional point of view). In our approach, MBSE models emulate system engineer knowledge about component/system architecture. NLP methods are employed to perform syntactic and semantic analyses. Syntactic analysis analyzes the grammatical structure of a sentence while semantic analysis is designed to analyze the logic structure of a sentence. An innovative element of our approach is that semantic analysis uses MBSE models to identify links between textual elements. Similarly, numeric data is directly linked to elements of the MBSE models in order to map which functions are being monitored.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

RingX: Scalable Parallel Attention for Long-Context Learning on HPC

The attention mechanism has become foundational for remarkable AI breakthroughs since the introduction of the Transformer, driving the demand for increasingly longer context to power frontier models such as large-scale reasoning language models and high-resolution image/video generators. However, its quadratic computational and memory complexities present substantial challenges. Current state-of-the-art parallel attention methods, such as ring attention, are widely adopted for long-context training but utilize a point-to-point communication strategy that fails to fully exploit the capabilities of modern HPC network architectures. In this work, we propose ringX, a scalable family of parallel attention methods optimized explicitly for HPC systems. By enhancing workload partitioning, refining communication patterns, and improving load balancing, ringX achieves up to 3.4 × speedup compared to conventional ring attention on the Frontier supercomputer. Optimized for both bi-directional and causal attention mechanisms, ringX demonstrates its effectiveness through training benchmarks of a Vision Transformer (ViT) on a climate dataset and a Generative Pre-Trained Transformer (GPT) model, Llama3 8B. Our method attains an end-to-end training speedup of approximately 1.5 × in both scenarios. To our knowledge, the achieved 38% model FLOPs utilization (MFU) for training Llama3 8B with a 1M-token sequence length on 4,096 GPUs represents one of the highest training efficiencies reported for long-context learning on HPC systems. Our code implementation is available at https://github.com/jqyin/ringX-attention.

Yin, Junqi [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000338435520)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information

A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

On learning what to learn: Heterogeneous observations of dynamics and establishing possibly causal relations among them

Abstract Before we attempt to (approximately) learn a function between two sets of observables of a physical process, we must first decide what the inputs and outputs of the desired function are going to be. Here we demonstrate two distinct, data-driven ways of first deciding “the right quantities” to relate through such a function, and then proceeding to learn it. This is accomplished by first processing simultaneous heterogeneous data streams (ensembles of time series) from observations of a physical system: records of multiple observation processes of the system. We determine (i) what subsets of observables are common between the observation processes (and therefore observable from each other, relatable through a function); and (ii) what information is unrelated to these common observables, therefore particular to each observation process, and not contributing to the desired function. Any data-driven technique can subsequently be used to learn the input–output relation—from k-nearest neighbors and Geometric Harmonics to Gaussian Processes and Neural Networks. Two particular “twists” of the approach are discussed. The first has to do with the identifiability of particular quantities of interest from the measurements. We now construct mappings from a single set of observations from one process to entire level sets of measurements of the second process, consistent with this single set. The second attempts to relate our framework to a form of causality: if one of the observation processes measures “now,” while the second observation process measures “in the future,” the function to be learned among what is common across observation processes constitutes a dynamical model for the system evolution.

Sroczynski, David W.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Self Consistent 2D Simulation of Coherent Synchrotron Radiation Effects on Beam Dynamics

An increasing interest in high quality and high current electron beams necessitates a thorough understanding and prediction of coherent synchrotron radiation effects. The self-interaction of charged particles in a beam undergoing synchrotron motion is a physically significant process that is all too often computationally intensive with very little analytical results to rely on for the general case. The coherent spectrum of this interaction is of utmost importance to the design of free electron lasers (FELs) and an accurate assessment is imperative for their design. This work presents a novel implementation to the numerical simulation of charged particle beams. The simulation is a self-consistent approach including the self-fields generated by the beam of which coherent synchrotron radiation effects are of primary interest. A particle-in-cell model is used where a planar beam sampled by point particles is deposited on an encompassing grid at each timestep. The electromagnetic fields are calculated on the grid using the retarded potentials according to causality. The electromagnetic forces from the fields are interpolated on each particle which in turn advance in time. The simulation is benchmarked against well-established results for coherent synchrotron radiation effects. In addition, studies are provided that show the convergence of simulation results for increasing resolution. A study into the transverse beam size effects on beam dynamics is performed as well as a proof of concept where the simulation is used by a genetic algorithm to optimize the design parameters of a beam lattice. The results of these studies in tandem verify the efficacy of the simulation for its practical use in accelerator design or the study of synchrotron radiation effects

Duffin, Dallan [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, VA (U↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rindler fluids from gravitational shockwaves

We study a correspondence between gravitational shockwave geometry and its fluid description near a Rindler horizon in Minkowski spacetime. Utilizing the Petrov classification that describes algebraic symmetries for Lorentzian spaces, we establish an explicit mapping between a potential fluid and the shockwave metric perturbation, where the Einstein equation for the shockwave geometry is equivalent to the incompressibility condition of the fluid, augmented by a shockwave source. Then we consider an Ansatz of a stochastic quantum source for the potential fluid, which has the physical interpretation of shockwaves created by vacuum energy fluctuations. Under such circumstance, the Einstein equation, or equivalently, the incompressibility condition for the fluid, becomes a stochastic differential equation. By smearing the quantum source on a stretched horizon in a Lorentz invariant manner with a Planckian width (similarly to the membrane paradigm), we integrate fluctuations near the Rindler horizon to find an accumulated effect of the variance in the round-trip time of a photon traversing the horizon of a causal diamond.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Finite density QCD equation of state: Critical point and lattice-based 𝑇′ expansion

Here, we present a novel construction of the QCD equation of state (EoS) at finite baryon density. Our work combines a recently proposed resummation scheme for lattice QCD results with the universal critical behavior at the QCD critical point. This allows us to obtain a family of equations of state in the range 0 ≤ 𝜇 𝐵 ≤ 700 MeV and 25 MeV ≤ 𝑇 ≤ 800 MeV, which match lattice QCD results near 𝜇 𝐵 =0 while featuring a critical point in the 3D Ising model universality class. The position of the critical point can be chosen within the range accessible to beam-energy scan heavy-ion collision experiments. The strength of the singularity and the shape of the critical region are parametrized using a standard parameter set. We impose stability and causality constraints and discuss the available ranges of critical point parameter choices, finding that they extend beyond earlier parametric QCD EoS proposals. We present thermodynamic observables, including baryon density, pressure, entropy density, energy density, baryon susceptibility and speed of sound, that cover a wide range in the QCD phase diagram relevant for experimental exploration.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in integrating dissolved organic matter chemodiversity into kinetic models of soil respiration

The chemodiversity of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in soil has been proposed to influence the microbial metabolism and fate of belowground organic carbon (C). However, integrating DOM chemistry into soil C cycle models to improve predictions of C stocks and fluxes—beyond simply considering DOM pool size—remains a challenge. While recent research suggests that incorporating DOM chemodiversity into models can improve predictions of microbial respiration, there is still a lack of mechanistic understanding describing how DOM chemodiversity affects microbial metabolism and soil respiration. Here, we evaluated whether DOM chemodiversity was a determinant of soil respiration using paired measurements of high-resolution DOM chemistry, obtained from Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS), and potential soil respiration rates from across the United States (U.S.), all data provided by the Molecular Observation Network. Our objectives were to (1) assess statistical relationships between DOM chemodiversity and microbial respiration, and (2) evaluate the ability of kinetic models to leverage DOM chemistry to explain empirical relationships found in statistical models. Statistical regressions revealed that DOM chemodiversity (alpha diversity) was nonlinearly related to potential soil respiration rates, both independently and through its interactions with DOM and total C concentrations. In soils with relatively high DOM but low total C concentrations, potential soil respiration rates were negatively correlated with DOM alpha diversity, whereas in soils with relatively low DOM and high total C concentrations showed the opposite trend. However, when metabolic transition theory kinetic models were modified to include chemodiversity, their performance was comparable to traditional Monod kinetics approaches, which simulate respiration rates as a function of DOM concentration. The inability to account for nonlinearities in DOM chemodiversity–respiration relationships highlight an opportunity to advance substrate uptake kinetics by establishing causal links between DOM chemodiversity, microbial metabolism trade-offs, and potential interactions under varied environmental conditions.

Bioenergetic model↗