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At least 55 records · Page 3

Aircraft Loss-of-Control Accident Analysis

Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. To gain a better understanding into aircraft loss-of-control events and possible intervention strategies, this paper presents a detailed analysis of loss-of-control accident data (predominantly from Part 121), including worst case combinations of causal and contributing factors and their sequencing. Future potential risks are also considered.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

Workload management and geographic disorientation in aviation incidents: A review of the ASRS data base

NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident reports are reviewed in two related areas: pilots' failures to appropriately manage tasks, and breakdowns in geographic orientation. Examination of 51 relevant reports on task management breakdowns revealed that altitude busts and inappropriate runway usee were the most frequently reported consequences. Task management breakdowns appeared to occur at all levels of expertise, and prominent causal factors were related to breakdowns in crew communications, over-involvement with the flight management system and, for small (general aviation) aircraft, preoccupation with weather. Analysis of the 83 cases of geographic disorientation suggested that these too occurred at all levels of pilot experience. With regard to causal factors, a majority was related to poor cockpit resource management, in which inattention led to a loss of geographic awareness. Other leading causes were related to poor weather and poor decision making. The potential of the ASRS database for contributing to research and design issues is addressed.

Williams, Henry P.↗

Trend analysis for large solid rocket motors - A program level approach

This paper defines a program-level trend analysis effort that can be applied to large solid rocket motors. The effort is especially applicable to large segmented rocket motors such as the Space Transportation System's solid rocket boosters. Five types of trend analysis are discussed for different aspects of a rocket motor program, (performance, reliability, problem, supportability, and programmatic). Ideas are offered for implementing and performing a program-level trend analysis effort by giving suggestions for selecting computer capabilities, choosing parameters, selecting statistical processes, routine screening for trends, analyzing significant trends (for example, looking for related trends and determining if adverse trends are resolved), and reporting results of trend analysis. The use of program-level trending allows for the ability to easily transfer data between organizations and easily use the data to correlate trends from the various organizations to find causal relationships. Efficiency is enhanced from upper level management to the shop floor at vendor locations by using the same trend analysis software and methodology at all organizations.

Babbitt, Norman E., III↗

Aircraft Loss-of-Control: Analysis and Requirements for Future Safety-Critical Systems and Their Validation

Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex, resulting from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or more often in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. This paper summarizes recent analysis results in identifying worst-case combinations of loss-of-control accident precursors and their time sequences, a holistic approach to preventing loss-of-control accidents in the future, and key requirements for validating the associated technologies.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

Quantifying Instability Sources in Liquid Rocket Engines

Computational fluid dynamics methodology to predict the effects of combusting flows on acoustic pressure oscillations in liquid rocket engines (LREs) is under development. 'Me intent of the investigation is to develop the causal physics of combustion driven acoustic resonances in LREs. The crux of the analysis is the accurate simulation of pressure/density/sound speed in a combustor which when used by the FDNS-RFV CFD code will produce realistic flow phenomena. An analysis of a gas generator considered for the Fastrac engine will be used as a test validation case.

Farmer, Richard C.↗

Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness Strengthens Assurance of Fault Management Systems

As spaceflight systems increase in complexity, Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of software criticality, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance. Adverse conditions (ACs) and specific vulnerabilities encountered by safety- and mission-critical software systems have been identified through efforts to reduce the risk posture of software-intensive NASA missions. Acknowledgement of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine software system resiliency are important aspects of hazard analysis and FM. A key component of assuring FM is an assessment of how well software addresses susceptibility to failure through consideration of ACs. Focus on significant risk predicted through experienced analysis conducted at the NASA Independent Verification & Validation (IV&V) Program enables the scoping of effective assurance strategies with regard to overall asset protection of complex spaceflight as well as ground systems. Research efforts sponsored by NASAs Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domain/component, causal fault, and other key characteristics. Vulnerability in off-nominal situations, architectural design weaknesses, and unexpected or undesirable system behaviors in reaction to faults are curtailed with the awareness of ACs and risk-significant scenarios modeled for analysts through this database. Integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IV&V enables interfacing with other tools and datasets, technical support, and accessibility across the Agency. This paper discusses the development of an improved workflow process utilizing this database for adaptive, risk-informed FM assurance that critical software systems will safely and securely protect against faults and respond to ACs in order to achieve successful missions.

IV&V↗

Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness Strengthens Assurance of Fault Management Systems

As spaceflight systems increase in complexity, Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of software criticality, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance. Adverse conditions (ACs) and specific vulnerabilities encountered by safety- and mission-critical software systems have been identified through efforts to reduce the risk posture of software-intensive NASA missions. Acknowledgement of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine software system resiliency are important aspects of hazard analysis and FM. A key component of assuring FM is an assessment of how well software addresses susceptibility to failure through consideration of ACs. Focus on significant risk predicted through experienced analysis conducted at the NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Program enables the scoping of effective assurance strategies with regard to overall asset protection of complex spaceflight as well as ground systems. Research efforts sponsored by NASA's Office of Safety and Mission Assurance defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domaincomponent, causal fault, and other key characteristics. Vulnerability in off-nominal situations, architectural design weaknesses, and unexpected or undesirable system behaviors in reaction to faults are curtailed with the awareness of ACs and risk-significant scenarios modeled for analysts through this database. Integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IVV enables interfacing with other tools and datasets, technical support, and accessibility across the Agency. This paper discusses the development of an improved workflow process utilizing this database for adaptive, risk-informed FM assurance that critical software systems will safely and securely protect against faults and respond to ACs in order to achieve successful missions.

Fault management↗

Assessment of the 1997-1998 Asian Monsoon Anomalies

Using State-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analysis of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the Asian monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions. it is noted that some subcontinental regions such as all-India, or arbitrarily chosen land regions over East Asia, while important socio-economically, are not near the centers of influence from El Nino, hence are not necessarily representative of the response of the entire monsoon region to El Nino. The observed 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies attributable to basin- scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19%, leaving about 47% due to internal dynamics. Also noted is that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also monsoon regional coupled processes and their modulation by long-term climate change.

Lau, William K.-M.↗

Assurance of Fault Management: Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness

Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of criticality within flight software, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance for NASA projects, especially as spaceflight systems continue to increase in complexity. Insight into specific characteristics of FM architectures seen embedded within safety- and mission-critical software systems analyzed by the NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Program has been enhanced with an FM Technical Reference (TR) suite. Benefits are aimed beyond the IVV community to those that seek ways to efficiently and effectively provide software assurance to reduce the FM risk posture of NASA and other space missions. The identification of particular FM architectures, visibility, and associated IVV techniques provides a TR suite that enables greater assurance that critical software systems will adequately protect against faults and respond to adverse conditions. The role FM has with regard to overall asset protection of flight software systems is being addressed with the development of an adverse condition (AC) database encompassing flight software vulnerabilities.Identification of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine how a system responds to these conditions are important aspects of hazard analysis and fault management. Understanding what ACs the mission may face, and ensuring they are prevented or addressed is the responsibility of the assurance team, which necessarily should have insight into ACs beyond those defined by the project itself. Research efforts sponsored by NASAs Office of Safety and Mission Assurance defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs, and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domain component, causal fault, and other key characteristics. The repository has a firm structure, initial collection of data, and an interface established for informational queries, with plans for integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IVV, enabling support and accessibility across the Agency. The development of an improved workflow process for adaptive, risk-informed FM assurance is currently underway.

Software Verification & Validation↗

Analysis of the Radiated Field in an Electromagnetic Reverberation Chamber as an Upset-Inducing Stimulus for Digital Systems

Preliminary data analysis for a physical fault injection experiment of a digital system exposed to High Intensity Radiated Fields (HIRF) in an electromagnetic reverberation chamber suggests a direct causal relation between the time profile of the field strength amplitude in the chamber and the severity of observed effects at the outputs of the radiated system. This report presents an analysis of the field strength modulation induced by the movement of the field stirrers in the reverberation chamber. The analysis is framed as a characterization of the discrete features of the field strength waveform responsible for the faults experienced by a radiated digital system. The results presented here will serve as a basis to refine the approach for a detailed analysis of HIRF-induced upsets observed during the radiation experiment. This work offers a novel perspective into the use of an electromagnetic reverberation chamber to generate upset-inducing stimuli for the study of fault effects in digital systems.

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo↗

Investigation of the NOAA N' S Search and Rescue Antenna Inadvertent Deployment: Type C Mishap

The NOAA N' Search and Rescue Antenna (SRA) inadvertently deployed during a spacecraft rotation on April 14,2007. This rotation was part of a normal operation to configure the spacecraft for additional antenna and the solar array boom deployments. This procedure (red flag written) had been modified to look for a lost metal washer and a thermal blanket button. The modification to the procedure was reviewed and approved by the Lockheed Martin Missiles and Space (LMMS) Material Review Board (MRB) per standard procedures. The flag to the procedure introduced a counter clockwise rotation before the normal clockwise rotation. The antenna was temporally stowed and held in place via lacing cord. The lacing cord broke and allowed the SRA to inadvertently deploy during the clockwise rotation. The SRA broke through a hard stop bracket and damaged an instrument optical sensor radiator panel. The satellite damage appears to be minimal and there were no injuries to personnel. The damage to the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)-A1 instrument has not been fully assessed. Based on mishap site visits, interviews and data analysis, the Mishap Investigation Team (MIT) identified the underlying causes of the mishap. Event and causal factor tree diagrams were developed, resulting in the identification of the proximate (or direct) cause and root causes of the mishap.

Sabelhaus, Phil↗

Gravitational collapse in dust lanes and the appearance of spiral structure in galaxies

The possibility is considered that there are two types of spiral for each spiral galaxy: an underlying spiral of relatively old stars seen in red and IR photographs and a spiral outlined by H II regions and young bright blue stars. The origin of the first spiral is attributed to large-scale spiral density waves, and the second spiral is identified as a stochastic spiral. It is suggested that there is a physical or causal connection between the two spirals and that dust lanes play the role of intermediary. An analysis is performed which shows that such a model can account for the formation and destruction of giant molecular cloud complexes and for observed spiral structure in one simple unified theory.

Elmegreen, B. G.↗

The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilots taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that all of the events that caused the accident occurred well before the moment when the pilot switched to direct control. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

accident investigation↗

Cross-correlation analysis of on-orbit residual accelerations in Spacelab

To characterize the low-gravity environment within orbiting space laboratories, researchers are operating sensitive accelerometer systems. Transient accelerations recorded in spacecraft can have magnitudes up to 0.01 g over a wide range of frequencies. These accelerations have components in the 0.001-100-Hz range no greater in magnitude than 0.001 g. Some experiments can be sensitive to such accelerations, so investigators are interested in identifying causal relationships between accelerations and experimental results. Here, two forms of synthetic experiment data created using Spacelab 3 accelerometer data are evaluated using cross-correlation analysis. The results show that the use of cross-correlation techniques is appropriate, for specific experiment classes, for assessing relationships between both transient and oscillatory residual accelerations and experimental results recorded in a low-gravity environment.

Rogers, Melissa J. B.↗

Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores. Using a prioritization of measures from the decision-maker, trade-offs between the scores are used to rank order the available set of RTOS candidates.

Morris, A. Terry↗

The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilot's taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that, rather than events following the pilot's switch to direct control, it was the events preceding the switch that led to the accident. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

X-15↗

Compact FUV camera concept for Space Weather applications

Far ultraviolet (FUV) images of Earth from space have proven invaluable in revealing contextual phenomena associated with space weather in the high latitude auroral regions and, more recently with TIMED and IMAGE in the mid and equatorial regions. Images of this nature can be used to investigate compelling questions associated with the interaction of the ionosphere/mesosphere-magnetosphere-solar wind. Three such questions are: 1. What are the critical time and spatial scales that determine the coupling between the magnetosphere and ionosphere? 2. What are the sources and characteristics of ionospheric variability? 3. How does the configuration of the magnetosphere change as a function of internal boundary conditions established by the mesosphere/ionosphere and the external driving conditions of the solar wind? Observations that lead to quantitative analyses are required to significantly advance the state of knowledge with regard to the affects of space weather and the interaction between and within these regions of Geospace. Current available image data sets are sufficient for qualitative analysis and morphological investigations, and while quantitative analyses are possible, they are difficult and limited to few events at best. In order to qualitatively access the time, spatial, and causal phenomena on global scales, simultaneous images of various FUV emissions with a combination of better spatial, temporal and spectral resolution and sensitivity than currently available is required. We present an instrument concept that is being developed to improve the spatial, temporal and spectral resolution and sensitivity needed to perform the quantitative analysis that enable significant advancement in our understanding of the impact of space weather on Geospace. The approach is to use the self-filtering concept that combines the imaging and filtering functions and thus reduces the size of the 4-mirror off-axis optical system. The optical and filter design will de described and results of preliminary breadboard tests will be provided.

Spann, James↗

A further analysis for the minimum-variance deconvolution filter performance

Chi and Mendel (1984) analyzed the performance of minimum-variance deconvolution (MVD). In this correspondence, a further analysis of the performance of the MVD filter is presented. It is shown that the MVD filter performs like an inverse filter and a whitening filter as SNR goes to infinity, and like a matched filter as SNR goes to zero. The estimation error of the MVD filter is colored noise, but it becomes white when SNR goes to zero. This analysis also conects the error power-spectral density of the MVD filter with the spectrum of the causal-prediction error filter.

Chi, Chong-Yung↗