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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Demonstration of the On-the-Fly Shielding Analysis Method: Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition

This report documents work performed supporting the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD) Integrated Waste Management activities under work breakdown structure element 1.08.02.04.01, “Data and Tools Development, Validation, and Maintenance.” In particular, this report fulfills milestone M3SF-21OR020401016, “Implement on-the-fly dose analysis methodology in UNF-ST&DARDS” within work package SF-21OR02040101, “Commercial SNF Characterization - ORNL.” The Used Nuclear Fuel - Storage, Transportation & Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNFST& DARDS) enables automated dose rate calculations for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation packages and storage casks using a Monte Carlo radiation transport code. The explicit method uses a detailed model of the SNF system and its contents. Therefore, a dose rate calculation is required for each as-loaded transportation package or storage cask because the SNF assemblies within a canister typically have unique irradiation characteristics. An alternate method, referred to as the “on-the-fly” shielding analysis method, has been proposed that requires only a set of Monte Carlo dose rate calculations for each transportation packaging/storage cask design. The results of the Monte Carlo dose rate calculations are independent of the SNF assembly irradiation and decay characteristics. The dose rate values may then be combined with the radiation source strength of the SNF assemblies associated with a particular transportation packaging/storage cask design to determine actual dose rates. This report presents on-the-fly dose rate calculations for a representative SNF storage cask and verification of the on-the-fly dose rate calculation results by comparison with reference dose rate calculations using the explicit Monte Carlo dose rate calculation. The on-the-fly shielding analysis method was implemented in UNF-ST&DARDS. A Python program was developed to process the MAVRIC dose rate results obtained by source particle type, energy group, and fuel geometry region. A Python processor created binary files, which were saved as a special UNF-ST&DARDS library for on-the- fly shielding analyses. UNF-ST&DARDS uses the precalculated on-the-fly binary libraries generated by the Python data processor and directly executes the Python code for on-the-fly dose analysis. This Python code unzips the pre-generated binary files mentioned above, reads the data, and combines them with user-specified sources for dose and uncertainty calculations. The Python programs were verified using Excel calculations and by comparison with the values obtained with the MAVRIC post-processing utilities applied to the 3dmap files. This method can currently be used to determine dose rates for as-loaded HI-STORM FW storage casks. The UNF-ST&DARDS analysis wizard for on-the-fly shielding analysis is described in this report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interferometric binary phase estimations

We propose an interferometric scheme where each photon returns one bit of the binary expansion of an unknown phase. It sets up a method for estimating the phase value at arbitrary uncertainty. This strategy is global, since it requires no prior information, and it achieves the Heisenberg bound independently of the output statistics. We provide simulations and a characterization of this architecture.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Physics of Compact Binaries with GADGET

The research goal of this project was to experimentally constrain the thermonuclear rate of the 15 O(α, Υ) 19 Ne reaction, whose uncertainty has a strong influence on the modeling of astrophysical Type-I X-ray bursts on accreting neutron stars. To this end, Experiment 21072 was run in November 2022 at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams using the GADGET II detection system. The limited scope and duration of this award included work in the year following the experiment: drafting a technical paper on the time projection chamber of the GADGET II detection system, and analysis of data from Experiment 21072. The award contributed to the education and development of the scientific and technical workforce by partially supporting one postdoctoral Research Associate who did this work.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for multicomponent CALPHAD model optimization and uncertainty quantification

CALPHAD model parameter optimization is inherently challenging due to non-smooth objective functions, high-dimensional parameter spaces, and the need for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Traditional weighted nonlinear least squares approaches are computationally efficient but local, whereas black-box global optimizers and ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide broader exploration at substantial computational cost. The objective of this work is to combine the global exploration capability of gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo – specifically the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) – with local deterministic refinement using BFGS to efficiently optimize multicomponent CALPHAD models with minimal manual intervention. Analytic gradients are computed via the Jansson derivative framework. The methodology is demonstrated on the Cr—Fe binary system and extended to the Cr—Fe—Ni ternary system with 32 degrees of freedom. For Cr—Fe, NUTS achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to ensemble MCMC while requiring over an order-of-magnitude fewer likelihood evaluations. Parameter uncertainties are quantified through NUTS sampling and propagated to thermodynamic observables using local expansion, demonstrating a novel modular approach that combines binary and ternary parameter subsets without requiring global relaxation. These results establish gradient-informed exploration as a scalable strategy for multicomponent CALPHAD optimization and provide a practical route towards efficient higher-order database development with quantified uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mathematical Underpinnings of the Multiwavelength Structure of the Tip of the Red Giant Branch

We consider the application of the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) in the optical and in the near-infrared for the determination of distances to nearby galaxies. We analyze ACS VI (F555W and F814W) data and self-consistently cross-calibrate WFC3-IR JH (F110W and F120W) data using an absolute magnitude calibration of M {sub I} = −4.05 mag as determined in the Large Magellanic Cloud using detached eclipsing binary star geometric parallaxes. We demonstrate how the optical and near-infrared calibrations of the TRGB method are mathematically self-consistent, and illustrate the mathematical basis and relations among these multiwavelength calibrations. We go on to present a method for determining the reddening, extinction, and the true modulus to the host galaxy using multiwavelength data. The power of the method is that with high-precision data, the reddening can be determined using the TRGB stars themselves, and decreases the systematic (albeit generally small) uncertainty in distance due to reddening for these halo stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Orbits and Masses of Binaries from Speckle Interferometry at SOAR

We present results from Speckle inteferometric observations of 15 visual binaries and one double-line spectroscopic binary, carried out with the HRCam Speckle camera of the SOAR 4.1 m telescope. These systems were observed as a part of an on-going survey to characterize the binary population in the solar vicinity, out to a distance of 250 pc. We obtained orbital elements and mass sums for our sample of visual binaries. The orbits were computed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm that delivers maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters, as well as posterior probability density functions that allow us to evaluate their uncertainty. Their periods cover a range from 5 yr to more than 500 yr; and their spectral types go from early A to mid M, implying total system masses from slightly more than 4M{sub ⊙} down to 0.2M {sub ⊙}. They are located at distances between approximately 12 and 200 pc, mostly at low Galactic latitude. For the double-line spectroscopic binary YSC8, we present the first combined astrometric/radial-velocity orbit resulting from a self-consistent fit, leading to individual component masses of 0.897 ± 0.027 M {sub ⊙} and 0.857 ± 0.026 M {sub ⊙}; and an orbital parallax of 26.61 ± 0.29 mas, which compares very well with the Gaia DR2 trigonometric parallax (26.55 ± 0.27 mas). In combination with published photometry and trigonometric parallaxes, we place our objects on an H-R diagram and discuss their evolutionary status. We also present a thorough analysis of the precision and consistency of the photometry available for them.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Impact of Nuclear Physics Uncertainties on Galactic Chemical Evolution Predictions

Modeling the evolution of the elements in the Milky Way is a multidisciplinary and challenging task. In addition to simulating the ~13 billion years evolution of our Galaxy, chemical evolution simulations must keep track of the elements synthesized and ejected from every astrophysical site of interest (e.g., supernova, compact binary merger). The elemental abundances of such ejecta, which are a fundamental input for chemical evolution codes, are usually taken from theoretical nucleosynthesis calculations performed by the nuclear astrophysics community. Therefore, almost all chemical evolution predictions rely on the nuclear physics behind those calculations. In this proceedings article, we highlight the impact of nuclear physics uncertainties on galactic chemical evolution predictions. We demonstrate that nuclear physics and galactic evolution uncertainties both have a significant impact on interpreting the origin of neutron-capture elements in our Solar System. Those results serve as a motivation to create and maintain collaborations between the fields of nuclear astrophysics and galaxy evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

General relativistic simulations of collapsing binary neutron star mergers with Monte Carlo neutrino transport

Recent gravitational wave observations of neutron-star-neutron-star and neutron-star-black-hole binaries appear to indicate that massive neutron stars may not be too uncommon in merging systems. These discoveries have led to an increased interest in the simulation of merging compact binaries involving massive stars. In this paper, we present a first set of evolution of massive neutron star binaries using Monte Carlo radiation transport for the evolution of neutrinos. Here, we study a range of systems, from nearly symmetric binaries that collapse to a black hole before forming a disk or ejecting material, to more asymmetric binaries in which tidal disruption of the lower mass star leads to the production of more interesting postmerger remnants. For the latter type of systems, we additionally study the impact of viscosity on the properties of the outflows, and compare our results to two recent simulations of identical binaries performed with the whiskyTHC code. We find agreement on the black hole properties, disk mass, and mass and velocity of the outflows within expected numerical uncertainties, and some minor but noticeable differences in the evolution of the electron fraction when using a subgrid viscosity model, with viscosity playing a more minor role in our simulations. The method used to account for r-process heating in the determination of the outflow properties appears to have a larger impact on our result than those differences between numerical codes. We also use the simulation with the most ejected material to verify that our newly implemented Lagrangian tracers provide a reasonable sampling of the matter outflows as they leave the computational grid. We note that, given the lack of production of hot outflows in these mergers, the main role of neutrinos in these systems is to set the composition of the postmerger remnant. One of the main potential uses of our simulations is, thus, as improved initial conditions for longer evolutions of such remnants.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Numerical relativity simulations of prompt collapse mergers: Threshold mass and phenomenological constraints on neutron star properties after GW170817

We determine the threshold mass for prompt (no bounce) black hole formation in equal-mass neutron star (NS) mergers using a new set of 227 numerical relativity simulations. We consider 23 phenomenological and microphysical finite-temperature equations of state (EOS), including models with hyperons and first-order phase transitions to deconfined quarks. We confirm the existence of EOS-insensitive relations between the threshold mass, binary tidal parameter at the threshold (Λth), maximum mass of nonrotating NSs, and radii of reference mass NSs. We combine the EOS-insensitive relations, phenomenological constraints on NS properties, and observational data from GW170817 to derive an improved lower limit on radii of maximum mass and a 1.6 M ⊙ NS of 9.81 and 10.90 km, respectively. We also constrain the radius and quadrupolar tidal deformability (Λ) of a 1.4 M ⊙ NS to be larger than 10.74 km and 172, respectively. We consider uncertainties in all independent parameters—fitting coefficients as well as GW170817 masses while reporting the range of radii constraints. We discuss an approach to constrain the upper as well as lower limit of NS maximum mass using future binary NS detections and their identification as prompt or delayed collapse. With future observations, it will be possible to derive even tighter constraints on the properties of matter at and above nuclear density using the method proposed in this work.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of O4 future detections on the determination of the dense matter equations of state

Here, in view of the next LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Observing period O4 (to start in Spring 2023), we address the question of the ability of the interferometers network to discriminate among different neutron stars equation of states better than what was possible with the observation of the binary neutron stars merger GW170817. We show that the observation of an event similar to GW170817 during O4 would allow us to resolve the dimensionless effective tidal deformability $\tilde{Λ}$ within an uncertainty 7 times better than the one obtained in O2. Thanks to the expected increase in sensitivities, we show that any GW170817-like single-event within a distance of 100 Mpc would imply significantly improved constraints of the neutron stars equations of state. We also illustrate the important impact of the noise in the analysis of the signal, showing how it can impact the effective tidal deformability probability density function for large signal-to-noise ratio.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Overview of ARTMIP's Tier 2 Reanalysis Intercomparison: Uncertainty in the Detection of Atmospheric Rivers and Their Associated Precipitation

Atmospheric rivers, or long but narrow regions of enhanced water vapor transport, are an important component of the hydrologic cycle as they are responsible for much of the poleward transport of water vapor and result in precipitation, sometimes extreme in intensity. Despite their importance, much uncertainty remains in the detection of atmospheric rivers in large datasets such as reanalyses and century scale climate simulations. To understand this uncertainty, the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) developed tiered experiments, including the Tier 2 Reanalysis Intercomparison that is presented here. Eleven detection algorithms submitted hourly tags--binary fields indicating the presence or absence of atmospheric rivers--of detected atmospheric rivers in the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5) as well as six-hourly tags in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55). Due to a higher climatological mean for integrated water vapor transport in MERRA-2, atmospheric rivers were detected more frequently relative to the other two reanalyses, particularly in algorithms that use a fixed threshold for water vapor transport. The finer horizontal resolution of ERA5 resulted in narrower atmospheric rivers and an ability to detect atmospheric rivers along resolved coastlines. We found that the fraction of hemispheric area covered by ARs varies throughout the year in all three reanalyses, with different atmospheric river detection tools having different seasonal cycles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The CluMPR galaxy cluster-finding algorithm and DESI legacy survey galaxy cluster catalogue

ABSTRACT Galaxy clusters enable unique opportunities to study cosmology, dark matter, galaxy evolution, and strongly lensed transients. We here present a new cluster-finding algorithm, CluMPR (Clusters from Masses and Photometric Redshifts), that exploits photometric redshifts (photo-z’s) as well as photometric stellar mass measurements. CluMPR uses a 2D binary search tree to search for overdensities of massive galaxies with similar redshifts on the sky and then probabilistically assigns cluster membership by accounting for photo-z uncertainties. We leverage the deep DESI Legacy Survey grzW1W2 imaging over one-third of the sky to create a catalogue of $\sim 300\, 000$ galaxy cluster candidates out to z = 1, including tabulations of member galaxies and estimates of each cluster’s total stellar mass. Compared to other methods, CluMPR is particularly effective at identifying clusters at the high end of the redshift range considered (z = 0.75–1), with minimal contamination from low-mass groups. These characteristics make it ideal for identifying strongly lensed high-redshift supernovae and quasars that are powerful probes of cosmology, dark matter, and stellar astrophysics. As an example application of this cluster catalogue, we present a catalogue of candidate wide-angle strongly lensed quasars in Appendix C. The nine best candidates identified from this sample include two known lensed quasar systems and a possible changing-look lensed QSO with SDSS spectroscopy. All code and catalogues produced in this work are publicly available (see Data Availability).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Search for New Cosmic-Ray Acceleration Sites within the 4FGL Catalog Galactic Plane Sources

Cosmic rays are mostly composed of protons accelerated to relativistic speeds. When those protons encounter interstellar material, they produce neutral pions, which in turn decay into gamma-rays. This offers a compelling way to identify the acceleration sites of protons. A characteristic hadronic spectrum, with a low-energy break around 200 MeV, was detected in the gamma-ray spectra of four supernova remnants (SNRs), IC 443, W44, W49B, and W51C, with the Fermi Large Area Telescope. This detection provided direct evidence that cosmic-ray protons are (re-)accelerated in SNRs. Here, we present a comprehensive search for low-energy spectral breaks among 311 4FGL catalog sources located within 5° from the Galactic plane. Using 8 yr of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope between 50 MeV and 1 GeV, we find and present the spectral characteristics of 56 sources with a spectral break confirmed by a thorough study of systematic uncertainty. Our population of sources includes 13 SNRs for which the proton–proton interaction is enhanced by the dense target material; the high-mass gamma-ray binary LS I+61 303; the colliding wind binary η Carinae; and the Cygnus star-forming region. This analysis better constrains the origin of the gamma-ray emission and enlarges our view to potential new cosmic-ray acceleration sites.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Searching for cosmological stochastic backgrounds by notching out resolvable compact binary foregrounds with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors

Stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds can be of either cosmological or astrophysical origin. The detection of an astrophysical stochastic gravitational-wave background with ground-based interferometers is expected in the near future. Perhaps even more excitingly, the detection of stochastic backgrounds of cosmological origin by future ground-based interferometers could reveal invaluable information about the early Universe. From this perspective, the astrophysical background is a foreground that can prevent the extraction of this information from the data. In this paper, we revisit a time-frequency domain notching procedure previously proposed to remove the astrophysical foreground in the context of next-generation ground-based detectors, but we consider the more realistic scenario where we remove individually detectable signals by taking into account the uncertainty in the estimation of their parameters. We find that time-frequency domain masks can still efficiently remove the astrophysical foreground and suppress it to about 5% of its original level. Further removal of the foreground formed by unresolvable events (in particular, unresolvable binary neutron stars), which is about 10 times larger than the residual foreground from realistic notching, would require detector sensitivity improvements. Therefore, the main limitation in the search for a cosmological background is the unresolvable foreground itself, and not the residual of the notching procedure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Searching for cosmological stochastic backgrounds by notching out resolvable compact binary foregrounds with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors

Stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds can be of either cosmological or astrophysical origin. The detection of an astrophysical stochastic gravitational-wave background with ground-based interferometers is expected in the near future. Perhaps even more excitingly, the detection of stochastic backgrounds of cosmological origin by future ground-based interferometers could reveal invaluable information about the early Universe. From this perspective, the astrophysical background is a {\it foreground} that can prevent the extraction of this information from the data. In this paper, we revisit a time-frequency domain notching procedure previously proposed to remove the astrophysical foreground in the context of next-generation ground-based detectors, but we consider the more realistic scenario where we remove individually detectable signals by taking into account the uncertainty in the estimation of their parameters. We find that time-frequency domain masks can still efficiently remove the astrophysical foreground and suppress it to about $5\%$ of its original level. Further removal of the foreground formed by unresolvable events (in particular, unresolvable binary neutron stars), which is about $10$ times larger than the residual foreground from realistic notching, would require detector sensitivity improvements. Therefore, the main limitation in the search for a cosmological background is the unresolvable foreground itself, and not the residual of the notching procedure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building Load Control Using Distributionally Robust Chance-Constrained Programs with Right-Hand Side Uncertainty and the Risk-Adjustable Variants

Aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads can provide reserves to absorb volatile renewable energy, especially solar photo-voltaic (PV) generation. In this paper, we decide HVAC control schedules under uncertain PV generation, using a distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) building load control model under two typical ambiguity sets: the moment-based and Wasserstein ambiguity sets. We derive mixed integer linear programming (MILP) reformulations for DRCC problems under both sets. Especially, for the Wasserstein ambiguity set, we use the right-hand side (RHS) uncertainty to derive a more compact MILP reformulation than the commonly known MILP reformulations with big-M constants. All the results also apply to general individual chance constraints with RHS uncertainty. Furthermore, we propose an adjustable chance-constrained variant to achieve tradeoff between the operational risk and costs. We derive MILP reformulations under the Wasserstein ambiguity set and second-order conic programming (SOCP) reformulations under the moment-based set. Using real-world data, we conduct computational studies to demonstrate the efficiency of the solution approaches and the effectiveness of the solutions. Summary of Contribution: The problem studied in this paper is motivated by a building load control problem that uses the aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads as flexible reserves to absorb uncertain solar photovoltaic (PV) generation. The problem is formulated as distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) programs with right-hand side (RHS) uncertainty. In addition, we propose a risk-adjustable variant of the DRCC programs, where the risk level, instead of being predetermined, is treated as a decision variable. The paper aims to provide tractable reformulations and solution algorithms for both the (general) DRCC and the (general) adjustable DRCC models with RHS uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Radiation hydrodynamics modelling of kilonovae with SNEC

ABSTRACT We develop a method to compute synthetic kilonova light curves that combine numerical relativity simulations of neutron star mergers and the SNEC radiation–hydrodynamics code. We describe our implementation of initial and boundary conditions, r-process heating, and opacities for kilonova simulations. We validate our approach by carefully checking that energy conservation is satisfied and by comparing the SNEC results with those of two semi-analytic light-curve models. We apply our code to the calculation of colour light curves for three binaries having different mass ratios (equal and unequal mass) and different merger outcome (short-lived and long-lived remnants). We study the sensitivity of our results to hydrodynamic effects, nuclear physics uncertainties in the heating rates, and duration of the merger simulations. We find that hydrodynamics effects are typically negligible and that homologous expansion is a good approximation in most cases. However, pressure forces can amplify the impact of uncertainties in the radioactive heating rates. We also study the impact of shocks possibly launched into the outflows by a relativistic jet. None of our models match AT2017gfo, the kilonova in GW170817. This points to possible deficiencies in our merger simulations and kilonova models that neglect non-LTE effects and possible additional energy injection from the merger remnant and to the need to go beyond the assumption of spherical symmetry adopted in this work.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Forecasting of Generators Startups and Shutdowns in the MISO System Based on Random Forest

Solving security constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problems to plan an economical generation schedule for day-head electricity market has been an important research topic in recent years. Mixed integer programming method (MIP), the-state-of-art approach for solving SCUC problem, is known computationally hard when the number of binary status variables is large. In this paper, a machine learning-based algorithm - random forest (RF), was applied to forecast the startups (SU) and shutdowns (SD) hours of generators, based on historical hourly system condition observations in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) system. The main purpose is to reduce the number of binary status variables, by fixing the SU/SD hours to a narrow range of high confidence. This would significantly reduce the size of the decision space, and therefore speed up SCUC solutions with reduced uncertainty.

Lin, Xinming↗